MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 1, 2015

Ah, May. Welcome. I love May. My son was born in May. Spring actually hits Maine in May. We usually start playing golf in May. The days are longer in May. And it also means April is gone. By April! Take care! Don't let the door hit you on the way out! April ended up one game under .500. That is awful. Terrible. And the month ended perfectly with a dismal 4-4 record yesterday. Good riddance! Now on to good times!

Friday's picks:

• The Cubs over the Brewers: Jon Lester still hasn't won a game for the Cubs. That doesn't bother me much. I would think it bothers the Cubs fans. He faces Wily Peralta who also hasn't won a game this season. Either one of them will finally win a game, or the relievers will win because...you know...the NL is the thinking person's baseball.
• The Orioles over the Rays: The Orioles are the home team. But they are playing the game in Tampa. That will be weird. And once again, they will be playing without a crowd. That was low, wasn't it? Chris Tillman over Alex Colombe. Will the O's wear their home unis? Will the Rays wear their road unis?
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: The Red Sox always kill CC Sabathia. Unfortunately, that used to be a novelty. Now everyone kills Sabathia. Justin Masterson has been better of late. I'll have to watch the game on NESN, so I hope I get to see Daniel Nahver play.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: Both Florida teams are in the same state today. I bet the Cubs have a bigger attendance than the combined Florida games. Tom Koehler and Jerome Williams square up.
• The Mets over the Nationals: In a great match-up, Max Scherzer faces Matt Harvey. Both pitchers cancel each other out and then the bullpens take over. Advantage: Mets.
• The Reds over the Braves: The Reds win the battle of funny-named pitchers. Anthony DeSclafani goes against Mike Foltynewicz. Oh come on now. How am I going to remember that? It's not like I am Babe Ruth and can call everyone, "Kid."
• The Rangers over the Athletics: Everything tells me that the A's should win this game. That is why I don't trust it. This is my anti-self pick. Colby Lewis and Scott Kazmir are the pitchers.
• The Twins over the White Sox: It is far obvious that I cannot figure these two teams out right now. Heck, if Chris Sale gets pounded by the Twins, what will happen with Jose Quintana? Kyle Gibson goes for the Twins.
• The Royals over the Tigers: Big statement last night by the Royals. They kicked booty. Remember when they could never beat the Tigers? But wait, Chris Young is starting for the Royals. Uh oh. But before I get all panicky and listen to all his naysayers, the guy is 66-52 in his career. He does something right. Kyle Lobstein goes for the Tigers.
• The Mariners over the Astros. Ugh! What do I do with this game? Sam Deduno against Roenis Elias!? Heaven help me.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: The Pirates don't seem to be all that peppy so far I don't know what to make of them. A.J. Burnett doesn't help me figure that out. I guess I'll go with Lance Lynn and the Cards at home.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks. The D-backs are playing some decent ball. And Rubby De La Rosa has been good. The Dodgers have Carlos Frias going for them and he has started one game in the Majors. Seems easy. Seems like a trap. Seeing the trap and leaping over it.
• The Rockies over the Padres: I am not comfortable going with Ian Kennedy just coming off the disabled list. Eddie Butler walks as many people as he strikes out. But he does okay otherwise. Maybe I'm over-thinking this...
• The Giants over the Angels: Charlton Chris Heston got rocked his last time out. But that was in Coors, so we'll give him a pass.  C.J. Wilson goes for the Angels. The Angels lose the DH, but they also lose the game.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Blue Jays over the Indians: I thought Carlos Carrasco was a sure thing and then he got bombed last time. Heck, Chris Sale got bombed last night. Who saw that coming? Anyway, Mark Buehrle continues to bamboozle.

Yesterday: 4-4, April: 164-165, Picks of the Day: 14-11

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: August 19, 2014

There are times when I wake up in the morning and I compare the actual results to my picks and figure I must have made a pick because the final score makes sense. Then, when I look at what I picked, it's the total opposite and I can't believe I made the pick I did. For example, the Cincinnati Reds are 10-20 since the All Star Break. These days, the odds are that they are going to lose. Yet, I have picked them three games in a row (all losses). I am indeed a slow learner.

How about Adam LaRoche giving the Nationals a third straight walk-off win? Pretty incredible. And it meant an extra-inning game went my way. Imagine that.

Tuesdays picks:

• The Nationals over the Diamondbacks: This is nothing against Chase Anderson, who has pitched very well this season. But the Nationals are ridiculous right now. Of course, that means I have to count on Stephen Strasburg. Oy. At least he is home where he is better.
• The Braves over the Pirates: Francisco Liriano has pitched fairly well in his last two starts and has two losses next to his name. The Pirates are a bit lost without Andrew McCutchen. Aaron Harang is my pick. Heaven help me with that.
• The Yankees over the Astros: I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop (cliche alert!) on Chris Capuano. He is not as good as he is pitching for the Yankees. On the other hand, the Astros give the Yankees an advantage of sorts. Brett Oberholtzer goes for them.
• The Mariners over the Phillies: This pick did not work out yesterday. However, Hisashi Iwakuma has been better than Elias. The on-again, off-again offense of the Mariners has to score against A.J. Burnett. The Mariners lose the DH.
• The Angels over the Red Sox: Jered Weaver has no velocity and he seems to bend every game but doesn't break. He is like the non-level-headed, right-handed Buehrle. But he has thirteen wins. So argue with that. Allen Webster has not pitched well at all for the Red Sox but keeps getting gobs of run support. So who knows.
• The Rays over the Tigers: I have a feeling about this one that Chris Archer is going to have a big night, Max Scherzer will give up three runs and the Rays will win, 3-1. The other scenario is that the Rays' bullpen outshines the Tigers and wins that way.
• The Marlins over the Rangers: The Rangers will be highly familiar with Jarred Cosart, but the same goes for he of them. That's a big ballpark in Miami which should help him. Miles Mikolas is hanging in there.
• The Cubs over the Giants: I'm going a little Cubs crazy the last couple of weeks. I have been right more often than not. I like what Tsuyoshi Wada is doing for them and I think the Cubs can hit Ryan Vogelsong at Wrigley.
• The Orioles over the White Sox: I have such empathy for Jose Quintana. He gets nothing to show for quality pitching outing after outing. And then his bullpen is just awful. Chris Tillman seems like he does it with mirrors, but it works.
• The Twins over the Indians: I have picked against Kyle Gibson all season because he doesn't strike anyone out. He has won more often than not though and I have to give him his due. Trevor Bauer still doesn't do it for me.
• The Brewers over the Blue Jays: Should I say it? Okay: Mike Fiers is on FIRE! Heh. I kill me. Fiers at home is a good pick as long as he stays away from Bautista and Encarnacion. J.A. Happ has had a nice season and is starting to hit a bit of a wall.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Do not pick the Reds. Do not pick the Reds. Do not pick the Reds. Okay, I think I have it. Alfredo Simon has gone from All Star pitching over his head to Alfredo Simon of the rest of his career. John Lackey gets the ball for the Cards.
• The Royals over the Rockies: I am a bit worried about this one and James Shields pitching at Coors Field. This could be a wild one. Tyler Matzek goes for the Rockies.
• The Padres over the Dodgers: I can't for the life of me understand why the Dodgers picked up Kevin Correia. They must see something I don't. Ian Kennedy has had a nice season, all things considered.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Athletics over the Mets: The A's need to get back on track and so does Scott Kazmir. Both the pitcher and the team have struggled of late. The Mets should help out there as they haven't scored at all lately. Dillon Gee hasn't been the same since going on the DL.

Yesterday: 5-3, August: 138-105, Games of the Day: 75-55 (+2), Season: 1032-854

Swimming against the strikeout tide

Never in the history of Major League Baseball has the strikeout been as prevalent as it is in today's game. The rate has risen every year and 2014 stands to break another record as the average strikeout rate in baseball is 7.73 strikeouts per nine. Even so, there are a few throwbacks to a bygone era whose current strikeout rates would not have been league average unless they pitched way back in 1981.

There are currently six pitchers who have pitched at least 50 innings who have a strikeout per nine rate less than 5.0 per nine. They are: Paul Maholm (3.96), Nick Martinez (4.22), Kevin Correia and Chris Young (4.48), Bronson Arroyo (4.92) and Kyle Gibson (4.93). Two of those pitch for the Twins.

It gets worse for the Twins from there. There are eighteen pitchers who have logged twenty innings or more this season with less than five strikeouts per nine innings and five of them are Twins. And Matt Guerrier would be on the list too if he had two more innings pitched. Throw them strikes, boys, and let them hit the ball!

The K/9 rate might not actually be the best way to look at strikeouts and pitchers. There is also strikeout percentage, which is all about the percentage of strikeouts per plate appearance rather than by inning. It might be a truer picture.

There are 21 pitchers whose strikeout percentage is less than 15% and who have pitched at least 50 innings. There are 55 who have done the trick with 20 innings or more. Just to give you some perspective, 20.3% is the Major League average. So these guys really are swimming against the strikeout tide.

Only one pitcher is averaging less than 10% for a strikeout rate with 50 or more innings and that is/was Paul Maholm. If you go to twenty innings or more, there are four: Mike Pelfrey (8.4% [!]), LaTroy Hawkins--otherwise known as Methuselah--(9.8%), Scott Carroll and Maholm at 9.7%.

For those who are close to Maholm with more than 50 innings, there is Nick Martinez at 10.7% in 59+ innings whose home ballpark is in Texas--not a good combination. Kevin Correia comes in at 11.3% followed by Chris Young at 12.2% and then by Eric Stults at 12.5%. These guys are fighting the tide and only Chris Young is somewhat succeeding with his offerings.

Last year, there were only five qualified starters who finished with less than 15% for a strikeout rate. The bottom two were Jeremy Guthrie and Kevin Correia. So far this year there are twelve. I don't know if that means there are more exceptions to the rule this year than last or that injuries have forced teams to go with more pitchers who do not fit today's pitching mold.

What I do know is that ten years ago (2005) there were 42 qualifying pitchers that finished with a strikeout percentage of less than 15%. While to this point, twelve is more than the two from last year, we can easily see that this is a dying breed.

MLB Game Picks - Monday: June 2, 2014

June began with a 9-6 day and I would be okay with that except the Game of the Day pick was incorrect...AGAIN! I figured Zack Greinke was pretty much a lock at home. I figured wrong. Every other ace won. But not Zack Greinke. There is no light at the end of that feature's tunnel. And the Yankees pick was correct for eight innings. Unfortunately, they play nine innings. What a spectacular blown save that was.

Monday is a short day with only eight games on the schedule. Here are the picks:

• The Indians over the Red Sox: This pick only works if Justin Masterson has a good day. He has had some good games against Boston over the years and some bad ones. He is the key. John Lackey has been awfully good, but less so on the road. Masterson has led the league the last two years in hitting batters. That aught to be fun.
• The Mets over the Phillies: The game will probably go into extra innings again. Heh. I like Bartolo Colon over Roberto Hernandez here.
• The Rays over the Marlins: The Rays went zero for the weekend, so you just know they are going to win today. That's how it always works. Alex Cobb came back dominant and should be today in that big ballpark. Randy Wolf? Not so much.
• The Twins over the Brewers: Kyle Gibson has been very good this season. Matt Garza is 2-4. So are the Brewers losing you wins too, Matt? Maybe you lose your own wins, son.
• The Cardinals over the Royals: Danny Duffy has the stuff to do well. But he cannot put it together as a starter. I'm not sure why. Watch him do so tonight as I pick against him. I picked him last time and he was bombed. Shelby Miller goes for the Cards.
• The Dodgers over the White Sox: Jose Abreu should be back. Jose Quintana is better than people think and none of that will matter if Clayton Kershaw is on his game. He hasn't always been since he got back though.
• The Pirates over the Padres: This might be a reaction to the last time I picked Tim Stauffer to win. I've always liked him, so I picked him and he did not get out of the first inning. Charlie Morton is a better pitcher than I've ever given him credit for, but I still don't inwardly believe it.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Mariners over the Yankees: Felix Hernandez loves pitching against the Yankees and isn't it kind of the Mariners to save him up for the makeup game today? The Yankees are slumping at the plate and David Phelps can't match zeroes with the King.

Yesterday: 9-6, June: 9-6, Games of the Day: 26-32, Season: 465-383

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 28, 2014

I should be happy. I reversed a 5-10 day on Monday to go 10-4 on Tuesday. But that darned Game of the Day feature is driving me crazy. For a reminder, the Game of the Day is the pick that seems the easiest of the day or the one I feel the most confident about. Last year, that feature was correct 60% of the time and was 35 correct picks over .500. That still wasn't great for being that confident a pick, but this year, the feature is simply terrible.

Take yesterday for example. I had Yu Darvish and the Texas Rangers. Reasonable, right? But what is announced around six o'clock in the evening? Darvish has a sore neck and might be going on the disabled list. Poof goes the pick, the Twins win and the stupid feature is back to three games under water. Grrr.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Pirates over the Mets: I don't like this pick because Charlie Morton is pitching for the Pirates. But he is doing so in a good pitchers park at Citi Field. Plus, a fastball pitcher like Bartolo Colon pitching to fastball happy Pittsburgh doesn't seem favorable.
• The Royals over the Astros: The Royals need a kick in the pants and they won't get it from the manager they have now. But they should still win behind Danny Duffy over Jarred Cosart.
• The Giants over the Cubs: Tim Lincecum has been pitching fairly well and the Giants are rolling. They should roll over the Cubs and Edwin Jackson.
• The Rockies over the Phillies: A lot of attention has been placed on the Rockies and the team's non-Coors offense and rightly so. But the Phillies are no great shakes on offense home or away. And Jordan Lyles is pitching really well. Look for the Rockies' road offense to get a boost off of Roberto Hernandez.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: This is the same pitching line that was supposed to happen yesterday but couldn't because of the rain. And I still think Blake Treinen comes out better than Henderson Alvarez.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: The battle of the ays continues and I think the Blue Jays finally lose a game here. Yes, Liam Hendriks won his first start. But he is still Liam Hendriks. Chris Archer has had some command issues, but he hasn't given up an earned run in his last two starts.
• The Red Sox over the Braves: Talk about any meme you want. The Red Sox have woken up. They will pounce on Gavin Floyd and John Lackey will win a game at Fenway most of the time.
• The Brewers over the Orioles: Yovani Gallardo had the pinch hit game winner on Tuesday night, so I have to pick him to win today, right? He is good at home anyway and Bud Norris is not a guy I ever have confidence in.
• The White Sox over the Indians: The Indians are banged up. There is no Nick Swisher or Carlos Santana. My only problem here is the pitching match-up which is like picking the worst of two negatives. Hector Noesi versus T.J. House. Yikes!
• The Twins over the Rangers: Maybe this is one too many incarnations for Joe Saunders. Maybe he'll make me look like a chump and pitch a good game. Maybe it won't matter because Kyle Gibson is pretty good, especially at home.
• The Cardinals over the Yankees: The Yankees look really tired. Mark Teixeira's bat is missed in the lineup. They struggle over power arms like Shelby Miller and Hiroki Kuroda has no stamina left. This has Cardinal win all over it.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Chase Anderson has been fairly productive so far for the D-backs. But I have always liked Tim Stauffer and it looks like the latter is back to where he needs to be. I have to go that way.
• The Athletics over the Tigers: The two teams have split the series so far. And a lefty like Scott Kazmir doesn't have the match-up advantage over the Tigers' lineup like he has other times. But I still like the A's here over Anibal Sanchez.
• The Mariners over the Angels: This is a great pitching match-up with Felix Hernandez going against C.J. Wilson. On the one hand, I like lefties against the Mariners. But it's just too hard to pick against King Felix.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Reds: Anytime you have Clayton Kershaw on the mound, you have to give the Dodgers the nod. Make it a home game and even more so. Homer Bailey could have a great game and spoil the party, but I still think the Dodgers win.

Yesterday: 10-4, May: 197-174, Games of the Day: 25-28, Season: 430-346

MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 16, 2014

I'm so glad it is Friday. You have no idea. Work has been just beating me up silly. But the bottom line is that I am thankful to have a job. I am also thankful to get to do this every day and have for the last five years. And I am thankful even on mediocre results days like yesterday. I needed that walk-off homer by Mike Trout just to break even. And while that made me sigh in relief, it had to be a real kick in the nether regions for the Rays. What a spectacular blown save. The good news was that the Game of the Day has been correct two days in a row, but another extra-inning game went against me.

Friday's picks:

• The Cubs over the Brewers: We need to get Jeff Samardzija a win. He deserves it. He is pitching lights out and is still 0-3. It's not right. Kyle Lohse is better at home than on the road. This is just wishful thinking though.
• The Reds over the Phillies: I do see Alfredo Simon coming back to earth a bit. But I also see Kyle Kendrick at 0-3 and think the Reds have every chance to win this game with their offense.
• The Athletics over the Indians: I need to go with Sonny Gray to save the day. He's my guy. But there is method to the madness too. He has pitched well on the road. It should be a close game because Zach McAllister has been good to.
• The Yankees over the Pirates: I am not too thrilled with picking David Phelps here, but the Yankees should hit multiple homers at home against Edinson Volquez. It will be interesting.
• The Red Sox over the Tigers: Speaking of interesting, this should be lots of fun to see what happens. Jon Lester is among the leaders in fWAR for starters and has pitched very well. Max Scherzer is Max Scherzer, one of the best in baseball. Very interesting.
• The Rangers over the Blue Jays: Another really interesting game with Yu Darvish trying to hold back a very good offense. A lot will depend on if Drew Hutchison can pull it together. He has been up and down a lot this season.
• The Orioles over the Royals: I like Chris Tillman a lot more than I like Jeremy Guthrie. The pick is pretty much as simple as that.
• The Astros over the White Sox: Collin McHugh has only given up one homer in four starts. Three of those four starts have been very good. McHugh faces a White Sox team with the hottest home run hitter in Jose Abreu. It should be fun. Jose Quintana has pitched three very good games in a row with nothing to show for it.
• The Twins over the Mariners: How good has Chris Young been for the Mariners!? But can that continue? The Twins' offense has been pretty good of late. And Kyle Gibson has been solid as a starter. I'm going with the home team here.
• The Cardinals over the Braves: St. Louis fans have a term they call, "Lynning," that is a lyrical way of saying that Lance Lynn often has an inning that undoes him. If he avoids that inning, he should strikeout ten Braves on the way to a win. The Cardinals can hit Ervin Santana.
• The Rockies over the Padres: The Rockies are at home? Let the mashing begin. Jorge De La Rosa needs to pitch decently and Eric Stults should be the victim here.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Wade Miley is so hit or miss, it's hard to count on him. On the other hand, Zack Greinke is the Dodgers' good luck charm. I'm leaning that way then.
• The Angels over the Bay Rays: Jered Weaver has a noodle arm and yet simply knows how to pitch. Every time I count him for dead, he wins. Chris Archer has been a disappointment thus far. He should find a way to see every team as the Yankees and he would never lose.
• The Giants over the Marlins: This one confuses me. Yusmeiro Petit has pitched mostly in relief. He has started twice and one time was very good and one time was very bad. On the other hand, Henderson Alvarez has been very good at home and very bad on the road (just like the Marlins). That sways it for me.

And the Game of the Day

• The Nationals over the Mets: Tanner Roark has not given up an earned run at home this year and while that is subject to correction eventually, I look for him to eek out a win over Jon Niese and the Mets.

Yesterday: 5-5, May: 111-94, Games of the Day: 20-22, Season: 344-266

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: April 17, 2014

Yesterday wasn't a bad day but the Game of the Day feature is struggling so far this season. Since that feature endeavors to pick the one game that seems like a lock, that's pretty bad. I should have used either of the Yankee games it seems. And gosh, do the Diamondbacks stink or what? And my guy, Jose Fernandez, had a 3-0 lead and was cruising along at home. What happened!?

There are twelve games on the schedule including a double-header in Minnesota since winter still held sway there yesterday. Thursday's picks:

• The Braves over the Phillies: Alex Wood has been pitching well and A.J. Burnett is about as reliable this year as spring temperatures have been on the East Coast this spring.
• The Tigers over the Indians: The Indians did well to take yesterday's game, a big improvement over last season when they could not beat the Tigers. But Justin Verlander at home should beat Danny Salazar who has had command issues thus far.
• The Twins over the Blue Jays: Kyle Gibson has not been as good as his record, but he's been a good luck charm for his team thus far. R.A. Dickey has not been effective except for that Yankees start.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: The Rangers got a big win yesterday after eight innings of doing nothing against Felix Hernandez. Today should be high scoring with Tanner Scheppers facing Erasmo Ramirez.
• The Giants over the Dodgers: This is a great pitching match-up on paper with Madison Bumgarner against Hyun-jin Ryu. These games always depend on with ace brings their ace-game. I am going with Bumgarner at home.
• The Padres over the Rockies: Franklin Morales has not been very good so far this year but might fare better in San Diego. Ian Kennedy needs to pitch better for this pick to come home.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: I like picking Yovani Gallardo better at home, but he has been consistently good wherever this season. Give Pittsburgh credit, they have done a good job of rebuilding Edinson Volquez.
• The Cardinals over the Nationals: Both teams are hot and some of the key Cardinal batters are coming alive. But I simply like Adam Wainwright more than Taylor Jordan in this one.
• The Blue Jays over the Twins: Dustin McGowan was great his last time out. But this is a scary pick. It is made less so by Mike Pelfrey pitching for the Twins.
• The White Sox over the Red Sox: Jon Lester versus Chris Sale is a great match-up on paper. Sale is dominant while Lester must be fine. The Red Sox benefit from finding out that Jammy Pants Pedroia is okay. Tough call this.
• The Astros over the Royals: Scott Feldman sure has been good thus far. That makes it hard to pick against him. James Shields is not doing much to add to his free agency paycheck.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Bay Rays over the Yankees: Tropicana is where the Yankees go to die. And who wouldn't in that awful place. Besides, David Price will be better than CC Sabathia.

Yesterday: 9-5, Games of the Day: 7-6, Season: 131-88