Yankees Look In Mirror At Twins

The Tampa Bay Rays already blew up my playoff bracket before it had much of a start. No longer needing to worry about my picks, I can concentrate on this ALDS between the Yankees and the Twins. With a five-game series, all conventional wisdom is blown away and the outcome is nearly impossible to predict. What can easily be said is that the Yankees and the Twins are so similar in structure that they could be the same image in a mirror.

Both teams have tremendous power as the Twins broke the season home run record this year and the Yankees finished one behind. The loss of the record (which really doesn't matter except for bragging rights) is another example of how the Yankees' last week of the season was atrocious. The Twins, on the other hand, finished super strong and barely ran out of time to catch up to the Yankees' win-loss record.

Both teams have very good managers. All Aaron Boone has done is win a hundred games in both of his seasons. Rocco Baldelli took the Twins to a hundred wins in his first season. One of them, probably Baldelli, will get Manager Of The Year. There is no advantage to be had here. The Yankees had a better record against teams over .500 and won the season series against the Twins and have historically beat the Twins in post season play. But all of those facts are meaningless heading into this series.

The pitching seems about as even as the offense. The Twins have had some bright spots in their rotation but no "stopper." The same can be said for the Yankees unless either James Paxton or Luis Severino are really on their games.

Boone recently announced that the rotation for the Yankees will start with Paxton, then Masahiro Tanaka at home in Game 2, and then Severino in Game 3 in Minneapolis. I am happy with that rotation and also happy (though sad) that CC Sabathia will not make the playoff roster (at least in this round). Tanaka is much better at home and Severino will give the Twins a new wrinkle they haven't seen in their home ballpark. In a short series, will the Yankees want to mess around with an "Opener" or a JA Happ in Game 4? Perhaps there will be enough days off for Paxton to pitch the second time.

One would immediately think that the Yankees have a big edge in the bullpen. I do not see it that way when it comes to the Twins. Their top four guys had great seasons with high strikeout rates and they walk less batters than their Yankee counterparts. For the Yankees to win, they need to win early.

Again, the offenses for both teams are a wash. The Yankees look like they will have the most bashable lineup of the season ready for the Twins with Edwin Encarnacion ready to play. They need him as he can be a game changer. The Twins' only question is whether Max Kepler is healthy and it looks like he will be.

I believe that one edge the Yankees have is defense. The Twins made the second most errors in the American League and all of their infield guys are in negative runs statistics. They lose a lot on defense with Byron Buxton out as it leaves the Twins without a true center fielder. The Twins do not throw out stolen base attempts on par with league average. The Yankees do.

The Twins were a much better team on the road this season than they were at home. That somewhat negates the home field advantage the Yankees hold. So really, there is no clear cut favorite in this series. Both teams are so similar and so close that it will come down to the bounce of the ball and which team makes the best plays and can do the best job pitching in the series.

What would you do with the Yankees' lineup? I have played a few scenarios in my head and like Sanchez as the DH with Romine behind the plate. But Romine would be a weaker play in the lineup.
I guess I would go something like this:

1. D.J. LeMaheau 1B, 
2. Aaron Judge - RF
3. Edwin Encarnacion - DH
4. Gleyber Torres - 2B
5. Giancarlo Stanton - LF
6. Gary Sanchez - C
7. Brett Gardner - CF
8. Gio Urshela - 3B
9. Didi Gregorius - SS

I do think that the Twins were the best possible outcome for a first series match-up for the Yankees. The Astros are going to be tough no matter what. I was really afraid the Yankees facing Oakland and am less so of Tampa Bay. All that said, playing the Twins is no walk in the park. If the Yankees do not pitch well, this series will end up poorly.

Winning Means Being Quiet?

This post is kind of personal. It shows a thin skin on my part and I am probably an idiot for writing. But writing has always been my outlet. I spent much of my adult life being the adult in the room...the steady rock that guides through the storm. Sports is where I can show my full passion whether it is ecstasy or being crushed. And I write about that because I have never pretended that I was a journalist. I write from a fan's perspective. Just look at the name of this place, for Pete's sake. Lately, I have been criticized on Twitter because I have expressed frustration with the Yankees. Apparently, the common thread is that right now, as a fan of that team, I should be basking in only good vibes because my team is going to win and not ever complain. Bull-ticky.

Most of these posts are by friends I have had on Twitter for years. I can accept those. They have earned the right to tell me what they think. Others have come from fans on terrible teams. I understand where they are coming from. But their teams have not always been terrible and might not be terrible forever.

You get it worse when you are are a Yankee fan and I get that too--or a Patriot fan for that matter. In both cases, my fandom began before their successes. Well, to correct that statement, I became a Yankee fan as a boy in the mid-1960s. I missed the glory years and started loving the Horace Clarke, Roger Repoz, Tom Tresh Yankees. I have been a fan of the Patriots since the Steve Grogan days. So I am not just a coattail guy.

I have been watching the Yankees for over fifty years. They and the Beatles are stitched into my life just as much as losing my dad young and living an--at times--stressful teen years. I think I have a right to express things about what I am watching after fifty years. Am I wrong? I am not dumb when it comes to baseball. I am not an analytical maven, but I understand them just enough to see and enjoy their benefit. So I would like to think that after all these years, my criticism is fair. I can admit to being wrong unlike the other William who writes about the Yankees always from the perspective that Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner are terrible and should have their impaled heads hanging on the Yankee Stadium gates.. I would say that I am negative maybe half the time. The other William is 100%. That's not me.

How different am I than fans of the Red Sox this year? The Red Sox have won it all four times since 2004 and had a magical season for the ages last year. Despite that success, when this year's Red Sox team became a clunker, the team and leadership were lambasted by their own fan base. Am I worse than that?

I've always tried to be magnanimous. When the Red Sox won, I congratulated the Red Sox fans and told them to enjoy it. I meant it. I have meant it when congratulating other successful teams and their fan bases. A team cannot win it every year. Not any more anyway. I know how good these fans of other teams feel. I have been there at every level. Of course I want them to bask in the glow of success. Who understands being a fan and begrudges that!?

There is a window for these team opportunities. The Astros might lose Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander might actually age some day. They have a window. The Red Sox had a window and took advantage of it. Now the Red Sox have questions going forward. That is how it works. The Yankees have not won it all after 2009. They have not even won the division most of the time. The team has a unique window. And in New York and for its fans, it is all or nothing on those windows!

So if I see things that can trip the team up and cause them not to take advantage of this window, I'm going to say so. Yeah, they are going to win over 100 games. But having home field through the post season is still up for grabs. The Yankees need that if perhaps they face the Astros for the ALCS. One extra home game could make a difference there or in the World Series. Shouldn't that be more important than resting players that have had plenty of rest on the DL or with natural days off? Shouldn't that be more important than resting a bullpen and letting three games get away from them in Detroit and Toronto? I think the home field advantage is more important than ANYTHING!

The Yankees lost the first game in Detroit as Aaron Judge and DJ LeMaheu sat. Perhaps the game would have been 13-12 instead of 12-11 if both those players had played. Perhaps they would have won if Nestor Cortez Jr had not become this year's version of Hector Noesi. The pitching lineup that day was just awful.

And, yes, I am going to spout off about the Yankees' medical and training staff when so many of these injuries have been muscular. Yes, the Yankees have thrived despite the injuries, but at no time this year has the team had all of its best players on the field at the same time. Employment is based on success. When I managed my customer service team, I had fifteen measurable stats. They were posted every week. Everyone knew where they stood. Lack of success meant stepping aside for someone who succeeded. The Yankees' medical staff and trainers have failed. They need to step aside. That is how I see it and I will say it out loud or on Twitter.

I will complain when umpires fail doing their jobs. I am not a conspiracy theorist and looking for evil plots around every corner for the Yankees as a team. I am talking about calling the strike zone. The "Framing" stat is so bogus because it shows the catcher fooling an umpire after a bad call. We should be feting these catchers or fighting the poor umpiring? I think the latter. To have SO many of these frame possibilities to create a statistic is pathetic.

I will continue to call out Brett Gardner and Aaron Judge for looking at strikes down the middle of the plate and then swinging and striking out on pitches that are not strikes. They can do better. They should be more aggressive. When they are, they are both terrific. The announcers always say that Gardner can ambush a pitcher at times. At times? How about all those other times when Strike One and usually Strike Two are right down the pipe? Hey, that is what I see. I'm not allowed to express it when the Yankees win 100 games? I guess not.

The resting thing is what I get hit the hardest about when questioning the Yankees' sanity. Has rest helped the team this year when it comes to injuries? Uh no. I can see trying to limit a position player to 150 games. Personally, I do not see any statistic that guarantees that doing such a thing works. But if a guy has missed 70 games due to injuries, does he need regular rest? How absurd.

To me, what makes the Patriots the most successful is that they do not lessen the value of any game. They are all important. I have watched far too many games this season when the best team the Yankees could field were not on the field and the feeling seemed to be, "Maybe we can somehow win this while giving guys some rest." Yes, tell us that when the Yankees' season ends in the seventh game in Houston's ballpark. Oh right, the odds of a series going the full seven games are a long shot. I forgot.

Maybe some thought has gone into this. I can admit that I like a series against the Twins a lot better than a series against the Oakland Athletics. The A's can actually beat the Astros and then the Yankees would have to face them anyway (if they beat the Twins, which is a crapshoot too).

Frankly, I am petrified about the post season. This team has been smoke and mirrors all season. Aaron Boone should get Manager Of The Year. He really should. I think the Yankees will have a better team next season. But I want desperately for them to win this season because of that window thing. And, of course, because I am a big fan. So yeah, if you think I should be happy-go-lucky due to the team's success, oh well. That's not going to happen.

Toying With The Yankees Playoff Roster

The New York Yankees have just a handful of games remaining before the team starts its Post Season scramble. There are no easy roads as any series poses strong obstacles to overcome for the Yankees to grab the top prize. The interesting aspect of that coming time is the makeup of the 25-man roster the Yankees need to shape heading into the team's run for the glory. The team has a plethora of decisions to make and most are not as easy as they sound.

Setting up the pitching staff seems to be the most important aspect of this exercise, though, certainly not the only important piece. For a deep Post Season run, pitching, offense and defense are all critical. Let's look at the pitching decisions the Yankees need to make and then we'll look at some of the different scenarios and how the Yankees might attack them.

First, the bullpen no brainers (5):

• Adam Ottavino
• Aroldis Chapman
• Zack Britton
• Tommy Kahnle
• Chad Green

Now, we need to add three more.

• Luis Severino
• Dellin Betances
• Jonathan Loaisiga

I am going here with a "best case" scenario. It is hopeful that the first two can contribute strongly and the playoffs require power pitching. Loaisiga looked great against Boston throwing 98 mph gas.

That leaves out Nestor Cortes Jr. Luis Cessa and Cory Gearrin. If either Severino or Betances cannot answer the bell, then add Cessa.

If all eight can be ready, you have an unbelievable bullpen of eight strong pitchers.

The Starters (4):
James Paxton
Masahiro Tanaka
Domingo German
JA Happ

That leaves out CC Sabathia. While that sucks emotionally, it just feels like the guy is done. Of course, if Sabathia was to pitch and had a great game, the emotional factor could be huge. But what are the odds of that happening? Happ has one strong start in his favor and a decent history. It is not a great choice, but Happ, at least, is healthy.

With only four starters, I can see an "Opener" scenario with Severino and perhaps you do add Cessa to give the team thirteen pitchers.

If the Yankees win home field advantage, then Masahiro Tanaka and Domingo German need to start at home. If the Yankees do not have home field advantage (Astros), then Paxton needs to lead off the series because he has the pure "stuff" to succeed on the road.

Happ would get the fourth game and then go with the Opener scenario for Game Five and back to the beginning for Game Six and Seven (if needed).

Okay, we more or less have our thirteen pitchers. Now we need twelve position players. Here is where it gets dicey. If Giancarlo Stanton can get a few games in, then you almost are forced to include him. I am glad I am writing this after seeing Mike Tauchman's injury (which sucks). I rule out Aaron Hicks completely. See you next year, Aaron.

If you include Stanton, then you've clogged up the DH because do you really want Stanton in left? Perhaps it might help to build the known commodities and their positions to see what we have remaining:

• Third Base - DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela
• Shortstop - Didi Gregorius
• Second Base - Gleyber Torres
• Catcher - Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine
• Right Field - Aaron Judge
• Center Field - Brett Gardner

There are eight of your twelve. In my mind, you have to have Edwin Encarnacion. He either plays first or splits time at DH. That's nine. There are only three spots left.

Losing Mike Tauchman Sunday night to a calf injury changes things. I definitely would have penciled him in to start in Left. He, along with Judge and Gardner gave the Yankees superior outfield defense and Tauchman brought enough to the plate to keep him out there. I am pessimistic about this injury. According to Bryan Hoch, Tauchman had already been receiving treatment for his calf before this injury. His season may be done.

I still do not want Stanton in Left. Does that mean the Yankees go with Cameron Maybin? What other choice is there? Clint Frazier? That's a thought, but no. So Maybin is your tenth guy. He's also a good dugout guy and brings that dynamic. We only have two spots left. We have not settled first base yet, which seems strange.

Luke Voit has not been very productive lately. He has only played 24 games since the halfway point of the season and his OPS in those 24 games is only .741 with a paltry .373 slugging percentage. In my mind, he has forgotten what led to his success last year which was driving the ball the opposite way on outside pitches. His pull percentage is up a full seven percentage points this year. His hard contact rate has tumbled nine percentage points from last year. He has hit five homers since the end of May. It is really tough, but I would leave him off the Post Season roster.

But we have two spots! Here is probably a surprise. But I would add Tyler Wade. He can backup every position. And if you need a guy to run the bases for some of the big, slumbering runners on the team, you call on Wade. This gives you five guys on the infield. You start Encarnacion at first and replace him in the late innings with DJLM. You start DJLM at third and when he goes to first, you slide Urshela in there.

We now have three guys on the bench: Urshela, Wade and Romine. That pretty much matches what the Yankees have gone with all season. You can use the last spot for a pitcher. That could be either Cody Guerrin or CC Sabathia. Guerrin can mop up lopsided games and perhaps CC would be an opener and pitch three innings to start a game before bringing in Severino or Loaisiga. Okay, let it be Sabathia.

To sum this all up, let's look at a depth chart:

• Left Field - Maybin, Stanton with Wade if needed
• Center Field - Gardner, Maybin
• Right Field - Judge
• First base, Edwin Encarnacion, DJLM
• Second Base - Gleyber Torres, DJLM, Wade
• Shortstop - Gregorius, Torres, Wade
• Third base - DJLM, Urshela
• Catcher - Sanchez, Romine
• DH - Stanton, Encarnacion, Sanchez (Sanchez needs to bat every game).

Pitching (relief)
Ottavino, Britton, Kahnle, Chapman, Green, Betances, Loaisiga

Pitchers (starters)
James Paxton, Tanaka, German, Happ

Pitchers (swing)
Severino, Sabathia, Cessa

The starting lineup for Game 1 should be:

1. DJLM
2. Judge
3. Gleyber
4. Encarnacion
5. Sanchez
6. Didi
7. Stanton
8. Maybin
9. Gardner

The choices are difficult. But you want your best arms and your most dominant lineup in the playoffs with a few options for flexibility. That lineup looks scary, but would be scarier if that was Tauchman in the eighth hole and not Maybin. Apologies to Luke Voit, but this seems the best to me and the overall process has given me confidence that the Yankees are well placed to make a run at the title.

Playoffs!? You're asking about the playoffs!?

Ah! That Coach Mora line will never get old, will it? But it does introduce the topic of this post, and that is: If a team is one of the two wild card teams, does that mean the teams made it to the playoffs? Oh, the realization is that the one game play-in or game-in, or whatever they are calling it, will be considered the post season. The stats sites will include those two games in a player's post season stats and not the regular season stats. But is it really making the playoffs?

Yes, this is all semantics, no doubt. We can call anything by whatever name we want to call it. But here is the problem: The one game is fought for the right to go to the division series. In other words, the two wild card teams are playing for the right to compete as one of the four playoff teams. So that makes the event not quite a playoff and yet the post season. 

And it is easy to see why MLB set it up this way. Calling it the 163rd game of the season gets messy. Should a guy who finishes by a few percentage points for the batting title after the 162nd game be penalized if he goes without a hit in that 163rd game? But there is already precedent for that. The 1978 season gave us a one game play-in, or whatever, between the Red Sox and the Yankees--the famous Bucky Dent game. But that was not a post season game. That was the 163rd game for each team.

And that precedent might happen again this season if say, the Rays and the A's finished the season in a tie for the final wild card spot. That would be each team's 163rd game, not a playoff game...not a post season game.

This way--and this is why MLB is smarter than us--more teams are fighting for a playoff spot. Yes, a playoff spot. That's what they call it. They did not say that on September 15, sixteen teams were still in the hunt to play an extra game at the end of the season. They said that sixteen teams were in the playoff hunt. And yet, it is not. It is a game to determine which team gets into the playoffs.

Again, this is semantics, sure. Despite its little semantics chicanery, even MLB could not quite go as far as it wanted to. Even they did not call the one game a playoff game. They called it a game-in, or whatever that term is they have been using.

For this observer, if the Yankees or the Orioles or the Rays or the Angels or the A's have to play each other as the two wild card teams, the loser of that game did not make it to the playoffs. Statistically speaking, the team will have made it to the post season. But the team did not. Not really. The team that wins that one game? Yes, then they will be a playoff team.

Shut Up About These Post Season "Facts"

Every thing in life can boil down to a cliche. "Wear a jacket or you'll catch yourself a cold." We hear them all the time. Over time, the cliches become facts. William Henry Harrison died of pneumonia after delivering his inauguration speech in the cold. See? You can die from pneumonia if you were warm every day of your life. The two aren't related. Baseball is no different than anything else in life. Cliches are formed and they become facts. What follows is not a scientific dissertation, but simply a bah humbug of some of these "facts" we hear every game both during and after the contests.

The first one is that clutch hitting wins in the post season. The Diamondbacks, Yankees and Philles all lost because they couldn't get the big hits they needed. That part is true, but the fact that these three teams weren't "clutch" is ridiculous. Playoffs are random events that define the meaning of short sample size. The same Robinson Cano that hit the dramatic grand slam in an earlier game grounded out in a big spot in the finale. First off, a batter's performance isn't static simply by what the batter does. The pitcher has a large part of whether the batter succeeds or doesn't. So does the defense deployed against him. Sometimes the pitcher or defense wins. Sometimes the batter does.

Good pitching will beat good hitting. How many times have we heard this one? The fact is that the playoffs through history feature a lot of series where the losing team ultimately outscored the winning one in the course of five or seven games. The Yankees - Tigers series is yet another example. Yes, there were times when the Tigers pitched well and times they didn't. And they still won the series. A whole series of events have to occur for one team to come out ahead of another. One of them can be a hot pitcher or reliever or a series of them. But again, you have to also state that a pitcher only has a partial control over the results. The batter or a team of batters could have executed a poor game plan and approach. 

Manager X had a better series than Manager Y. Managers don't play the game. Players do. Managers make some decisions that might work out really well or really poorly. But those outcomes are difficult to predict. Tony LaRussa was an idiot in one game of his series against the Phillies and then a genius when it all ended. Joe Maddon is considered one of the best managers in baseball. And yet Maddon's team is the only one that didn't make it to a Game Five in the division series. That would still be a fact even if every decision he made was the right one. Teams win and teams lose and managers only have a small part of that outcome.

Big time pitchers shine in the post season. Let's go back to the 1964 World Sereis. That series is famous because Bob Gibson pitched a spectacular game to beat the Yankees. The victory sealed his reputation as a "big time pitcher" in the post season. How come nobody remembers that just a few days before that win, he pitched and lost a game? Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, big time pitchers. And yes, the last few years, they've won their share of post season games. But are they any different now because they've lost four out of their last  five post season appearances? Hardly. They are among this generation's best pitchers. As such, they will win some playoff games. They will lose some too. Mickey Lolich won three games in the 1968 World Series. He was a big time pitcher. He pitched just as well in the 1972 ALCS against the Oakland A's and still went 0-1 in that series.

The team that wins a series was the better team. Sometimes. But just as often, the lesser of the two teams win. Like this writer is fond of stating, failure is built into baseball. It's the unseen fabric that holds it all together. Even the best teams will lose sixty ballgames. And in a short series, the best team can lose. Do people really believe that the Cardinals were a better team than the Phillies? They shouldn't. But they won. Can't we separate the two? Were the New York Giants better than the New England Patriots in that Super Bowl? Hardly. But in one game anything can happen and it did. The same thing holds here.

Intangibles and team spirit win post season series. Oh come on, please. Intangibles might have their day here and there. But random events occur in these short sample sizes that put one team in the winner's circle and the other sent packing. Can anyone question the pluck and character of the Arizona Diamondbacks this season? But they lost their series. It happens. The two aren't related. For every Chris Carpenter that says he's never played with a greater group of guys there are the 1978 Yankees, the 1986 Mets and those Oakland A's championship teams where there was open animosity on the team.

Baseball is a sport played by a team. The games aren't contested by a couple of gladiators or quick draw duelists. In singular sports, those contests are usually won by the person that should have won. But baseball like other team sports is not played with those same kinds of absolutes. In a short series, all kinds of things happen and the unexpected happens just as much as the expected. Just enjoy the contests for what they are and enjoy the high drama of it all. Don't listen to announcers and writers that drive narratives because that is what they are paid to do. The fact about playoff baseball is that there are no facts. That's why they play the games.  

Game Picks - Thursday: October 6, 2011

A squirrel, a Dairy Freese and tattoos all figured into Wednesday's division series games. This picker won one and lost one, but no matter, it was sure fun to watch. A squirrel? The critter that ran across home plate in the fifth inning of the Cardinals - Phillies game has become the new rallying cry of Cardinal Nation. "Win one for the squirrel!" Hey, isn't that Tony LaRussa a genius? An inning after the squirrel, David Freese belted a two-run homer to dead center to give the Cardinals a big enough lead that even their bullpen couldn't squander and sent that series back to Philadelphia for a Game Five. He must be a Dairy Freese, because he creamed that pitch.

The tone of the Diamondbacks - Brewers game was set in the first inning when both pitchers of this improbable match up couldn't put up a clean first inning. Ryan Braun hit a double to plate a run in the top of the first off of an ineffective Joe Saunders and then Ryan Roberts, a guy Diamondbacks fans call, "The Tatman," thanks to his plethora of body art, hit a grand slam off of an equally ineffective Randy Wolf. Kirk Gibson got his starter out of the game quicker than Ron Roenicke did his and that probably proved to be the winning idea. Micah Owings came in and pitched two scoreless innings while his teammates continued to pile up runs and that was the difference (more on Owings in the next post). Chris Young hit two of the D-backs' four homers.

Three of the four division series have gone the distance and you sure can't beat that for drama. The ALDS contest between the Yankees and Tigers will conclude in New York today while the two NLDS games will conclude those battles on Friday. How much fun is this!?

So what's the pick on the ALDS game today?

• The Yankees over the Tigers: This game will probably come down to which starter allows the fewest runs and which closer is standing on the mound in the ninth inning. Ivan Nova has been the Yankees good luck charm all season and the Yankees have figured out Doug Fister before. With the finale being played in New York, the odds are against the Tigers. But that's why they play the game. Let's just say that it will be quite the story if the Tigers can overcome those odds tonight.

Yesterday: 1-1

Week: 7-4

Month: 11-4

Season: 1374-1069

Game Picks - Wednesday: October 5, 2011

How could you not be in baseball hog heaven on Tuesday when four playoff games were all played on the same day? It was epic! Of course, the reality of baseball is that if your team lost yesterday, it wasn't so epic. Four fan bases went to sleep happy and four did not. And hopefully, if your team isn't in the playoffs, October baseball is still exciting to you. It is here in this household where each baseball game is a surprise waiting to happen and a three hour drama all its own. 

This game picker is having a good playoff run. There have been thirteen playoff games played and this picker has correctly picked ten of them. But there is one thorn permanently in this Fan's side. It's the St. Louis Cardinals. This picker has had a tough time picking them all season. They win when they should lose and they lose when they should win. But that's okay, that's the life of a baseball picker. Even the Mets do that. But there is one evil man out there that has made this picker dread picking their games. This evil man also happens to be one of the best of the St. Louis Cardinals writers on the planet. He knows who he is. You see, this man is convinced that this game picker has the power of the Cardinals' season underneath his fingertips. This evil man is convinced that when the game picker picks the Cardinals, they lose and picking against them guarantees a win. And since this gentleman roots desperately for the Cardinals, the pressure has become enormous. Now every day is filled with anxiety. Does the Fan pick the Cardinals and threaten that evil man's happiness? Or pick against them for his sake? Ugh! Well, you're not going to corrupt this picker, Mr. Netherton. The pick will be whatever the pick SHOULD be despite the overwhelming urge to please you. Heh.

Two more playoff games are on tap today. They are both in the National League Division Series category. Too bad, TBS. You'll have to feature one of them today. Sucks to be you, eh? And for some odd reason, the games are also scheduled geographically correct that favors the fans in their own time zone?. How did that happen? It must have been a moment of monetary weakness for the network. Here are the picks:

• The Cardinals over the Phillies: Sorry, Bob. This is the correct pick. Edwin Jackson isn't exactly a lock in any game but him pitching early in the shadows should help his stuff tremendously. Jackson is sort of the poor man's A.J. Burnett and Burnett put it all together yesterday, so Jackson can do it today. The real key to this game is whether the Cardinals can get to Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has had a great career, but he has to be deemed the weakest link in the Phillies rotation at this point. If Tony LaRussa was smart (he's a genius, right?), some of the Cardinals' secondary hitters should try to bunt for base hits early. Make Oswalt field his position and see if you can get his back out of whack. One thing is for sure, the Cardinals have to win. Another storyline is whether Matt Holliday will play. If he does, there is more offense in the Cardinals' line up but far less defense.
• The Brewers over the Diamondbacks: It seems puzzling that both teams are sticking with a four man rotation and not circling back to their best starters here. Especially the Diamondbacks whose backs are against the wall (ugh, a cliche). But Randy Wolf is going against Joe Saunders. Advantage, Brewers. Saunders has had a surprisingly good season. But when push comes to shove, he's still Joe Saunders. The Diamondbacks should have pitched Ian Kennedy, who they are saving for a possible Game Five that may never come.

Yesterday: 3-1

Week: 6-3

Month: 10-3

Season: 1373-1068

Game Picks - Sunday: October 2, 2011

This game picker was a perfect 4-0 yesterday and while it would be great to crow about those results like some proud rooster, the formula was fairly easy. All the home teams were picked and all the favorites. They just happened to all come in. 

For the Yankees, Ivan Nova and Robinson Cano will get most of the credit and rightly so, but there were a lot of important events that led to the victory. The perfect relay execution from Granderson to Jeter to Martin to gun down Alex Avila while the game was still tied was huge. The double play that resulted in unfortunate timing by the Tigers came from a hit right up the middle on a stolen base attempt by Austin Jackson and allowed Cano to simply step on second and throw Magglio Ordonez out at first. Nick Swisher followed that with a dive in right field to take a double away from Delmon Young. But probably the biggest moment of the game was Brett Gardner's huge two-out single to plate two runs that took a 2-1 game to 4-1 off Doug Fister and opened the Yankee floodgates.

The first game of the day Saturday followed the pick's story line to a T. Yovani Gallardo was brilliant and out dueled Ian Kennedy as predicted and the Diamondbacks allowed the dynamic duo of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder to beat them as the tandem went a combined five for eight.

After Lance Berkman's bomb off of Roy Halladay in the first inning, the 3-0 lead seemed for a while like it might hold up. But Kyle Lohse unraveled in the sixth inning and the Phillies went on to score ten runs in their final three at bats to put the game away. Ryan Howard takes a lot of guff here in the FanDome, but his three-run homer broke the Cardinal backs just like a star player is supposed to do. Halladay settled down after the first and pitched the typical Roy Halladay game the rest of the way for the victory.

Evan Longoria almost gave the Tampa Bay Rays another big comeback as he hit a huge three-run homer off of Koji Uehara to make it 7-6. But Darren Oliver, Mike Adams and Neftali Feliz shut the door the rest of the way to give the Rangers a bit of a slugfest win at home. The Rangers evened up the series and broke the two playoff record of these two teams winning every road game. Obviously in a short series, the win was huge for Texas but now must play the next two games in St. Pete.

Sunday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Tigers: The Tigers really needed to win Game 1. Their next two games feature the softer side of their rotation. The Yankees should get to Max Scherzer, especially at home and have plenty of options if Freddie Garcia can't come through in his start for the Yankees. Expect Girardi to pull Garcia's plug quickly if the Big Chief doesn't have his good stuff.
• The Brewers over the Diamondbacks: Zack Greinke at home is a near lock. Daniel Hudson is real good too, but he won't be able to keep up with Greinke. This is why the Brewers got him and it will pay off and put the Diamondbacks close to the brink.
• The Phillies over the Cardinals: Yeah, the picks are all for the home teams and the favorites again. But this picker just can't see anything else happening. Cliff Lee neutralizes Lance Berkman and will do what he usually does in the playoffs. A super huge effort by Chris Carpenter is the Cardinals only hope here.

Yesterday: 4-0

Last week: 40-28

Month: 4-0

Season: 1367-1065

Game Picks - Saturday: October 1, 2011

The Tampa Bay Rays certainly made a statement in their opening salvo in Arlington against the Texas Rangers. Kelly Shoppach became this year's Terry Steinbach, Mike Scioscia or Jim Leyritz. C.J. Wilson struggled early and young Matt Moore, the kid with the smile, showed up amidst all the hype and shut down one of the most potent offenses in the game. It was an eye-opening game. The other game on the schedule was eye-opening for other reasons, mainly because it was suspended by rain and as such will test the Yankees ability to rewrite their plan of attack against the Tigers.

The irritating thing about the Yankees - Tigers game was that the greed of the networks and Major League Baseball turned it into a fiasco. Insisting the Yankees be available for the late game for ratings purposes put the game out of reach for the rains that came and washed it all away. How did those rating go after that, TBS? It's high time that playoff schedules were made via common sense instead of with dollar signs. Instead we lose one of the greatest pitching match ups we could have hoped for lost to the elements. There is no blame to not heeding the weather maps to start that game. The rain was apparently worse than expected. That happens. But when you start a game so late, you have no other options but to call it. It was yet another scheduling black eye for baseball.

Hey, a picks post turned into a rant. Sorry about that. Here are Saturday's picks:

• The Brewers over the Diamondbacks: This one rolled around in this picker's head for quite a while. The pitching match up is outstanding with Ian Kennedy facing Yovani Gallardo. Kennedy has faced the Brewers three times to the tune of twenty innings and did a nice job of shutting them down with only one homer allowed. But as good as he's been, Gallardo has been even tougher on the Diamondbacks. He's never lost to them and has a sparkling ERA. Add a full house of screaming Milwaukee fans and it should all add up to a Brewers win.
• The Phillies over the Cardinals: Let's face it, Roy Halladay was born to pitch these kinds of games. He is the Bob Gibson of this generation, which is ironic facing the Cardinals. Kyle Lohse has had a really nice season and is a wily and smart pitcher. But he won't be able to keep up with Halladay.
• The Rangers over the Bay Rays: This game all boils down to Derek Holland. Holland can be unhittable at times and put up nine zeroes and at other times, he can stink up the joint. He needs to be the former for this pick to pan out as James Shields is one tough customer and the Rays are flying on all cylinders.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: Such a shame we lost that match up. But, it is what it is. Doug Fister has been brilliant but this is his first rodeo in the post season. How cool and calm can he be? Will he fall apart when things get tough? Ivan Nova is really in the same boat. The game will come down to who gets off to the faster start. Playing at home has to give the Yankees the edge when all other elements are equal.

Yesterday: 0-1

Week: 36-28

Month: 231-156

Season: 1363-1065

Game Picks - Friday: September 30, 2011

The playoffs are here! And you know what that means, right? Yes, it means bleary-eyed baseball. TBS gets the telecasts. Let this writer state emphatically that TBS would not be this writer's first choice...or second...or third. Not only is this author not a fan of their telecast, but once again, Mr. Bud Selig has allowed the networks to bully around the fans. Common sense would dictate that the East Coast game would be on earlier and the game from Texas would be later. But no, the Yankees make the dollar signs dance in the eyes of TBS. And because of that, parents on the East Coast must again decide whether to let their kids stay up past midnight to watch their favorite teams. It's brutal and stupid and not in the best interest in the game. TBS, you fail on the TIS scale (inside joke).

Oh yes, this post is supposed to be about picking games, not ranting like some liberal democrat or ultra conservative. Right. So let's do that then. Here are the big picks for the first round of the playoffs:

• The Rangers over the Bay Rays: There is much admiration for starting Matt Moore. This is what separates the Bay Rays from the Yankees. They have the freedom to make whatever choice feels best. The Yankees should start Jesus Montero at DH and not Jorge Posada. But they do not have the freedom to even consider those kinds of things. But Moore has never thrown more than five innings of major league ball. Truly, he is impressive. And he could very well hold the Rangers down for five or six innings. But he will need relief and that's problematic. C.J. Wilson, meanwhile, should be strong and he is a worthy ace who if he can hang with Moore in the early innings should win the game in the long run.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: The Yankees faced Verlander twice during the season and held him to two no-decisions and a 4.50 ERA. The games were uncharacteristic for Verlander in that he walked more batters and struck out less against the Yanks than other teams. But he's still powerful and had a great season. C.C. Sabathia struggled down the stretch. He had several chances to get 20 wins and couldn't get there. He's had trouble with Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera (but who doesn't!?). Other than those two, the Tigers' line up can be handled, so the key for Sabathia is to handle those two carefully and be really tough on everyone else. And this writer doesn't care what anyone says, Sabathia's weight is an issue. Since coming to Spring Training in better shape, he's put on a ton of weight and that hurts him. But overall, the Yankees are home where they feel good and they smash the ball. So that's the pick.

Week: 36-27

Month: 231-155

Season: 1369-1064

Expanded 2012 MLB Playoffs?

Earlier in the season, Bud Selig commissioned a panel to look at MLB and the present game of baseball to see what improvements could be made. According to Selig at the time, everything was open to scrutiny including replay, post season, the length of games and so on. While the immediate clamor has been for expanded replay to correct large lapses in umpiring, the first result seems to be a push for expanded playoffs according to this article.

The Fan's first reaction to all of this is, "Oh GEEZ!" The playoffs, as they stand now are overly long, drawn out affairs that take three weeks or more to accomplish. According to some, in order to accommodate more playoff games, there might have to be a shrinkage of the 162 game schedule. That's all we need, more confusion with statistics. First of all, shortening the regular season schedule would negatively affect the bottom line for all 30 teams, so that isn't going to happen. So if you want more playoff games, you'd have to start the season earlier and finished the playoffs later. That's all we need is to have Cleveland and Minnesota games in mid-March.

The greatest need in baseball, aside from replay, is to figure out how kids can watch playoff games and to realign the teams for fairness and common sense. Sports and the City, a blog from Toronto, ran a commentary a while back that kicked around some playoff and alignment possibilities. One commenter for that site ("Roberto" was the name he used) proposed going back to a two division set up with balanced schedules, two division winners and two wild cards. That makes perfect sense except that the balanced schedule would mean more travel for teams and the union wouldn't care for that very much.

Here is the only expanded playoff system the Fan would support. Add one more wild card to each league. Two days after the season, have the two wild cards play a three game series with no off days. The winner plays the top seeded team which begins the playoffs as we now know them. If you add one more wild card, you at least give the leagues each one more shot to have a good team have a chance for the gold. They would just have to win four series instead of three to get there. There should be no griping because those teams didn't win the division, why should they have the ability to set up their rotations like the division winners? Such an expansion would only increase the post season by four days. The division series would start two days after the end of the Wild Card Series. See, we even have a name for it!

The one problem this Fan has with the current set up is that the wild card team currently gets to set up its rotation and prepare the same way the winner of the division does. That doesn't seem right since that team didn't win its division. The extra wild card puts the two wild card winners at a disadvantage throughout the playoffs, which is how it should be. If that was the case, the Yankees couldn't coast into the playoffs resting all their players because the current wild card isn't a penalty except for home field advantage. They would have more incentive to win the division.

And there is no reason to hold up both series to finish up the Wild Card Series. You could have the division winners with the second and third best records to start their series concurrently with the Wild Card Series while the division winner with the best record awaits the outcome of the Wild Card Series. This is the only expansion of the playoffs this Fan would support...which is always a statement made by the guy who proposes a new idea, right? Guilty.

This Fan doesn't want to shorten the season of 162 games. This Fan doesn't want baseball games in mid-March or mid-November. This Fan DOES want some day games so kids can watch and still get to bed on time. Those that work, just record the dang game for crying out loud. The single worst thing that ever happened to the post season was allowing the networks to dictate a schedule. It has led to too many days off, too much delay and a long, drawn out playoff process (that still doesn't have replay...but still has Buck and McCarver).