MLB Playoffs: Is It Too Easy For Davy To Beat Goliath?

The New York Yankees emerged from the four division series as the only team that had an easy time moving on. Of course, for Yankee fans, that was a lot of fun. For Twins' fans, not so much. But the other three series have been utterly fascinating while going the distance. We had a blowout Game Five in Atlanta as the Cardinals surprisingly moved on. And we had heartbreak in Los Angeles for Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. Tonight we find out who will emerge from the remaining division series as those scrappy Rays take the Astros to the limit.

The five-game series format of the division series does post angst of whether it is the best format for this stage of the Major League Baseball season. It seems to make it easier that the best team can be beaten in the frenzy. The Dodgers were easily the best team in the National League and they are going home. If the Rays pull off the impossible and beat the Astros tonight, then the best team in the American League will go home. That is a big "If" of course. But if it does, that means that both of the bests and most favored in their respective leagues will end their seasons against wildcard teams.

The wildcard gives those teams the sense of being the underdog with absolutely no pressure. The underdog is not expected to win. So they can play with abandon while the Number One seeds have all the pressure to go the distance because of the expectations. Since the five-game format does lead to such excitement, and because nobody wants to play baseball in the snow, I would leave that format as is, but I would make one tweak.

There has to be a bigger benefit for a top seed against a wildcard team. There has to be a premium for having the best record and winning a division. A wildcard team does not have home field advantage with the 2-2-1 format. But I think the format still gives a wildcard team a route to get a playoff series win. If the wildcard wins its two games at home, then you are guaranteed a Game Five (unless the wildcard team took one of the first two on the road). And anything can happen in a Game Five as we have seen.

I propose that the wildcard team only gets one home game out of the five. Again, there needs to be a reason to win a division and have the best record. Would a team such as the Yankees have fought harder down the stretch for the best record in the AL if they knew it meant four home games in the division series? I think so. As for the wildcard team, there has to be a real disadvantage for not winning a division. I think a 2-1-2 format does that.

This will never happen, of course, as there would be an outcry from the Nationals or the Rays about lost revenue. But my answer to them would be, "Then win the division!" If you think about it, the wildcard teams have just as much of a shot as the Twins and Cardinals received. I don't think that's right. There has to be a real benefit for winning the division and a real cost for not winning a division.

The National League Championship Series will feature the unlikely match-up of the Nationals against the Cardinals with the Cardinals getting a 4-3 home field advantage. I am not sure I would mess with that as a seven-game series seems to benefit the best team. But if a wildcard was involved, you could make it a 5-2 split something like 2-2-3. But, again, the seven-game format does make it harder for the emotional edge a five-game series gives a team as an underdog.

The American League is yet to be determined. And even though my Yankees are involved, I would want them to play the Astros. You want the two best teams slugging it out. There is a reason a heavyweight fight draws more than a welterweight. Plus, having half the games (or three of them) in that abomination of a stadium in St. Pete is not good for baseball. Plus, the Yankees have played the Rays 19 times already. Enough already! Facing the Rays in the ALCS is like playing Whack-A-Mole after winning the division over them in the first place.

It has been a fascinating playoffs already. And the buzz is good for baseball. You cannot ask for much better than having three of the four series go the distance. On the other hand, you want the best teams slugging it out in the Championship Series and the current format only gives division winners a slight advantage of making that happen. With apologies to wildcard teams and not denigrating the accomplishment of making it as a wildcard team, there should be a bigger penalty for not winning the division. We need to make it harder for Davy to beat Goliath.

Yankees Look In Mirror At Twins

The Tampa Bay Rays already blew up my playoff bracket before it had much of a start. No longer needing to worry about my picks, I can concentrate on this ALDS between the Yankees and the Twins. With a five-game series, all conventional wisdom is blown away and the outcome is nearly impossible to predict. What can easily be said is that the Yankees and the Twins are so similar in structure that they could be the same image in a mirror.

Both teams have tremendous power as the Twins broke the season home run record this year and the Yankees finished one behind. The loss of the record (which really doesn't matter except for bragging rights) is another example of how the Yankees' last week of the season was atrocious. The Twins, on the other hand, finished super strong and barely ran out of time to catch up to the Yankees' win-loss record.

Both teams have very good managers. All Aaron Boone has done is win a hundred games in both of his seasons. Rocco Baldelli took the Twins to a hundred wins in his first season. One of them, probably Baldelli, will get Manager Of The Year. There is no advantage to be had here. The Yankees had a better record against teams over .500 and won the season series against the Twins and have historically beat the Twins in post season play. But all of those facts are meaningless heading into this series.

The pitching seems about as even as the offense. The Twins have had some bright spots in their rotation but no "stopper." The same can be said for the Yankees unless either James Paxton or Luis Severino are really on their games.

Boone recently announced that the rotation for the Yankees will start with Paxton, then Masahiro Tanaka at home in Game 2, and then Severino in Game 3 in Minneapolis. I am happy with that rotation and also happy (though sad) that CC Sabathia will not make the playoff roster (at least in this round). Tanaka is much better at home and Severino will give the Twins a new wrinkle they haven't seen in their home ballpark. In a short series, will the Yankees want to mess around with an "Opener" or a JA Happ in Game 4? Perhaps there will be enough days off for Paxton to pitch the second time.

One would immediately think that the Yankees have a big edge in the bullpen. I do not see it that way when it comes to the Twins. Their top four guys had great seasons with high strikeout rates and they walk less batters than their Yankee counterparts. For the Yankees to win, they need to win early.

Again, the offenses for both teams are a wash. The Yankees look like they will have the most bashable lineup of the season ready for the Twins with Edwin Encarnacion ready to play. They need him as he can be a game changer. The Twins' only question is whether Max Kepler is healthy and it looks like he will be.

I believe that one edge the Yankees have is defense. The Twins made the second most errors in the American League and all of their infield guys are in negative runs statistics. They lose a lot on defense with Byron Buxton out as it leaves the Twins without a true center fielder. The Twins do not throw out stolen base attempts on par with league average. The Yankees do.

The Twins were a much better team on the road this season than they were at home. That somewhat negates the home field advantage the Yankees hold. So really, there is no clear cut favorite in this series. Both teams are so similar and so close that it will come down to the bounce of the ball and which team makes the best plays and can do the best job pitching in the series.

What would you do with the Yankees' lineup? I have played a few scenarios in my head and like Sanchez as the DH with Romine behind the plate. But Romine would be a weaker play in the lineup.
I guess I would go something like this:

1. D.J. LeMaheau 1B, 
2. Aaron Judge - RF
3. Edwin Encarnacion - DH
4. Gleyber Torres - 2B
5. Giancarlo Stanton - LF
6. Gary Sanchez - C
7. Brett Gardner - CF
8. Gio Urshela - 3B
9. Didi Gregorius - SS

I do think that the Twins were the best possible outcome for a first series match-up for the Yankees. The Astros are going to be tough no matter what. I was really afraid the Yankees facing Oakland and am less so of Tampa Bay. All that said, playing the Twins is no walk in the park. If the Yankees do not pitch well, this series will end up poorly.

Yankees Gave The Advantage Back To Boston

I warned the Yankees about Brock Holt before the game yesterday. The Yankees usually hold their own against the superstars. But the utility guys kick them around all the time. The guy has a 91 career OPS+ and he gets ten total bases in one game against the Yankees. Ah well, the fact is that once again, Luis Severino could not come up big in a playoff game. So he got David Priced by the Red Sox and from there, all hell broke loose.

So now the Yankees face elimination. They have to beat the best team in baseball two games in a row to advance. They lose tonight, they go home. And surprisingly, the Yankees have chosen CC Sabathia to start the game. While this seems a big gamble, it is not as if Sabathia hasn't been here before. He is 2018's Andy Pettitte trying to rally the day. But I thought sure that J.A. Happ would get the start. Boston is why the Yankees went and got him, right? That becomes moot if the Yankees go home.

On the other side, the Boston Red Sox will start, Rick Porcello, a pitcher who has made the Yankees look stupid on many an occasion. The Yankees had a lousy batting plan against Nathan Eovaldi and if they don't plan better against Porcello, they will go home. It is as simple as that. The Yankees cannot continue to try to pull the ball against these guys. Eovaldi will invade the dreams far into the winter.

Aaron Hicks is back. Is that a good thing? Can he play defense with a bad hammy? Can he play it as well as Brett Gardner? At least he will bat third and push Luke Voit down in the batting order. The Yankees got really carried away by batting Voit third yesterday. The guy is easy to love and all of that, but he is not a three-hole hitter and will bog down against good pitching. He is another guy who had all his success hitting the ball to right field and suddenly wants to pull everything now. Why do all Yankee players turn into that? Giancarlo Stanton? Gary Sanchez? Pull, pull, pull. Go the other way!!

The Yankees will win if they have a good plan against Porcello and get him early AND if CC Sabathia can survive four innings with less than three runs. The Yankees will lose in all other scenarios. But at least one shred of dignity will be left. Other than the Braves, the Yankees will be the only vanquished Division Series team that won at least once in the series.

Oh, and remember one thing. In 2004, the Yankees took a 3-0 series lead against the Red Sox by scoring 19 runs in the third game. They never won the fourth game. So anything is possible. It's just not probable.

Yankees Set Up Nicely Against Boston

In a series of five games with the Red Sox getting a home, home, away, away, home advantage, it was crucial that the New York Yankees win one of the games in Boston. Thanks to Boston's insistence of starting David Price, the Yankees accomplished the split up in Boston. That sets the team up nicely as the series becomes a best two-out-of-three contest with two of the games occurring at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees could not have given the team a better chance to upset this American League Division Series.

But that means little. The team still has to go out and beat Boston, a great team, and beat them both games in New York. The Yankees will not want to play a fifth and deciding game in Boston. The Red Sox are very capable of winning one or both of the next two games.

The good news is that the Yankees can start Luis Severino tonight and J.A. Happ tomorrow. The former gives the Yankees its best pure talent on the mound to take a lead in the series. The latter is a lefty, something always useful in Yankee Stadium, and Happ should be better than he was in Game 1.

What could go wrong? Plenty. Severino could come out wild or flat and get banged around. He has lost his pinpoint command that he displayed in all of the first half of the 2018 season. He struggles to get through four or five innings with high pitch counts and lots of tension. He still shows flashes of what can make him so dominant. It would be great if he could be efficient and go deep. If he can do neither, that can be a problem.

What else can go wrong? It has been absolutely galling to see Nathan Eovaldi throw sixteen scoreless innings against the Yankees since Boston picked him up from Tampa Bay. Yankee fans have to be totally befuddled by that development since Eovaldi was a subject of derision when he pitched for the Yankees.

Eovaldi's improvement is not a fluke. His biggest problem when he worked with the Yankees was that his pitches had no movement to go along with his velocity. Thus, a team knew what it was getting and could pound him. Now, it seems as if everything Eovaldi throws has great movement and with his velocity, that makes things difficult for a team that swings for the fences like the Yankees do.

What the Yankees need to do is look for a good first pitch fastball to hit and be aggressive. Later in the count, look to the opposite field as he will be throwing cutters away from the right-handed batters.

The Red Sox have announced some lineup changes for Game 3. Brock Holt, Rafael Devers, Christian Vazquez and Steve Pearce will be starting in place of Ian Kinsler,  Eduardo Nunez, Sandy Leon and Mitch Moreland (respectively).

The Red Sox lose defense without Leon, Kinsler and Moreland, but Holt has always been a pain in the neck for the Yankees and Devers has more power than Nunez though they are both sub-par on defense. Pearce has been a Yankee killer since forever. Yankee fans hate that guy.

The Yankees have put themselves in a very good position. But the Red Sox are terrific and rarely beat themselves. While certainly better than coming home down by two games, the task is still great and the odds of the Yankees winning this series are still 50/50.

Two wild card teams in the World Series

We are a game away from the 2014 World Series being populated by wild card teams. I don't believe this is something that is bad or wrong. I do not write about this because the two teams did not earn or deserve to get as far as they have gotten. There is just an uneasiness about two teams that did not win their respective divisions after 162 games battling for the title.

It's not like it happens often. I don't recall another World Series like it. I do remember the Cardinals winning the World Series as a wild card team in 2011. I do know of some Cardinal fans that were slightly embarrassed about the fact. It doesn't really bother me greatly, but again, there is some uneasiness about those six teams that won divisions sitting at home watching the Series along with the rest of us.

I think part of my problem is the current way in which wild card teams are handled as far as home field advantage goes. In the division series, the wild card faces a 2-2-1 scenario with the middle two games as the only home games. Then in the LCS, the series is handled in a 2-3-2 scenario. My problem is the middle two games.

I believe that the wild card team should have at least one home game in the division series and at least two in the LCS. A team's fans deserve to get to cheer for their team in the post season. I would never advocate taking away home games for wild card teams. But again, there is a problem.

The first problem is if the wild card team wins at least one of the two first two away games in either series. Since most teams have at least one "ace" pitcher, the odds of that happening are pretty strong. And if the wild card team can win one of those first two games, then the series (either one) moves to the wild card city where a series can be put away entirely while in the wild card team's city.

Let's take the current Giants - Cardinals series in the NLCS. The Giants have an ace in Madison Bumgarner. So the team's odds of winning one of the two games in St. Louis is pretty strong. I get that the team still has to win a game and the Cardinals have good pitching too...at least in theory.

So the Giants win one of the two games in St. Louis and then play the next three in San Francisco. Once past the ace, a game can be aided by the home town crowd, a team's comfort level at home, etc. So the Cardinals have a three-game slog through extra adversity just to try to survive to get back to where they would have the advantage at home. I'm not sure that is weighted correctly for a division winner and a team that did not win a division.

If the series goes to the max (five games or seven), then the division winner has the advantage. But how often does that happen? So how would you go about fixing this situation?

One way is to have the opening two games in the wild card team's home stadium. Then the series is finished entirely at the home of the division winner. This reverses the current situation for the better.

Before I support other options, I need to interject a fundamental thought. It is my belief that the wild card team's options should be more difficult than a team that won a division. Basically, what happens now is that once a wild card team gets past the wild card game, the current set up actually favors them and that is not fundamentally correct.

Another option is to cut down the home games for the wild card to one in the division series and two in the LCS. I don't like this as much because fans of any post season team deserve the chance to root for their teams and quite frankly, any post season team deserves to gain the extra revenue from home games.

In the last stated option, the division series would go 2-1-2 and the LCS would go to 2-2-3. Frankly, once a team gets to the World Series, they have earned the right to be there and all bets are off and neither team deserves any breaks.

One last option is the most drastic. It would include adding one more wild card team in each league for a total of three and then you drop the wild card game and have three concurrent division series with the three division winners all facing a wild card team in the first option format.

My conclusion and my contention is that the current format actually favors the wild card team, especially if it can win one of the first two games of either series. And carrying a system that favors a wild card team over a division winner just doesn't seem right from where I sit.

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: October 5, 2014

This is getting downright silly. I cannot pick a playoff game to save myself. Two more incorrect calls and one took eighteen innings to put me there. When the post season started, my hope was that I wouldn't get eleven picks wrong total because I did not want my season incorrect total to reach 1,100. How laughable is that now that I have picked eight of ten post season games incorrectly?

I am going to fault Matt Williams for one of them. I mean, who would you rather face with two outs in the ninth inning holding a 1-0 lead with a man on first, Jordan Zimmermann, who got you there, or any relief pitcher? So what if it was Buster Posey? Williams should not have listened to the "book" there just because Zimmermann had just hit 100 pitches and had given up a hit to Posey prior in the game. Have some faith, man!

There is more second guessing to go around. What about the Nats' approach to hitting Tim Hudson? Give Hudson credit, he willed his way to bring back some old magic, but still, hit the ball up the middle and the other way on a soft toss guy. Nope. And why pitch to Brandon Belt in the 18th? Brandon Crawford was next and he hadn't gotten close to a hit all day.

Oh well, perhaps the most talented team in the National League is now nearly toast. And we get the every-other-year magic of the Giants instead. And how do you feel now TBS and MLB after your insistence on putting the game on later in the day and then having to go until after midnight on the East Coast to figure out who was going to win? That will teach you and it serves you right.

I didn't mind so much getting the Dodgers - Cardinals game wrong. Those were two great starters and either one of them could have succeeded.

It's all ALDS today. So here are my (sure to be incorrect) picks:

• The Tigers over the Orioles: I'm afraid to make any pick at the moment. Talk about gun shy. Anyway, if you have to choose between David Price and Bud Norris, wouldn't you always take David Price? Plus, the Tigers are at home which will help them. My reservations? Price only pitched once against the Orioles this year and it did not go well. The Orioles can hit just about anybody.

• The Royals over the Angels: The most improbable of the winners will finish the sweep. I think. C.J. Wilson is 1-5 in his post season career and has not pitched well. His one win did come in an ALDS however. But I don't see it. James Shields worries me though. He'll either be Big Game James, something I have never bought by the way, or he'll give up two or three homers. Mike Trout has been totally absent. Will he wake up today? I can feel another 0-2 today. Ugh.

Yesterday: 0-2, Post Season: 2-8, Season: 1367-1098

MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 3, 2014

The two home teams in the ALDS had completely opposite days. The Orioles romped and the Angels lost to a gritty Royals team that knows how to play those close games. The results gave me a 1-1 day picking. At least I finally got my first correct pick of the post season.

Of course it was the extra-inning game that got me yesterday. And the home loss puts the Angels in a bind. Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton went a combined 0-13 in the game. There is no way the Angels win if that continues.

Today is playoff nirvana with four games. If you were so inclined, you could watch all four games from noon today (Eastern Time) through after midnight. It should be a fun day.

The picks:

• The Orioles over the Tigers: Again, there is something about this Orioles team. They just seem to have it, if you know what I mean. Justin Verlander is no longer the top dog on the Tigers' rotation and the Orioles already beat the top dog. Wei-Yin Chen is the wild card here. How he pitches will depend on how the game goes. I'm going Orioles.
• The Nationals over the Giants: Stephen Strasburg worries me. How will he pitch today? But Jake Peavy scares me more. The odds of the Nationals' lineup getting to Peavy seem greater in this case. Peavy has been here before, however, and Strasburg has not.
• The Dodgers over the Cardinals: What a great match-up this is (on paper). Clayton Kershaw versus Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been through this a half dozen times and knows what he has to do. Kershaw has had one crack at it and did not do well. But head to head, you've got to believe that Kershaw completely shuts down the Cardinals while Wainwright begrudgingly gives up a two-spot.
• The Angels over the Royals: Nothing like picking only home teams, there, William. How has that worked out for you so far? Not very good. I worry more about Yordano Ventura than I do Matt Shoemaker. But the worry for Shoemaker is his health. He didn't pitch the last couple of weeks and who knows how effective he will be. If this was the Matt Shoemaker that was on the roll for July and August, I would not hesitate. Now there is much hesitation.

Yesterday: 1-1, Post Season: 1-3, Season: 1366-1093

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: October 2, 2014

I am zero for two so far in the post season. Nicely done, William! Heh. I was worried about Edinson Volquez and I let my emotions override my concern. You just can't trust pitchers who wear their hats crooked...at least, not in the long run. Madison Bumgarner certainly helped cement his stature as one of the premier pitchers in baseball. Because he plays on the West Coast, I don't think he gets enough of his due, including from me. Because of him and because of crooked hats, the Giants move on into the playoffs.

Oh yes, and Pablo Sandoval went two for five with a walk. So, again, beware of those warm fuzzies.

Today it is all the American League. If you hate the DH, this isn't a good day for you. The picks:

• The Orioles over the Tigers: If Chris Tillman can hang with Max Scherzer for seven innings, then it becomes a bullpen game and that is the Tigers' weakness and the Orioles' strength. Scherzer has been tremendous in the post season, but there is something about this Orioles team. And at home, they will have an advantage with that crowd. Everyone will say that the Tigers can hit. But, boy, so can those Orioles.
• The Angels over the Royals: I am worried about the rotation of both these teams and how deep they can go. Jered Weaver had an ace-like season. But every time he pitches, you wonder how he can get anyone out with the speed of his stuff. But he wins, right? The Royals counter with Jason Vargas. Oy. I can see Ned Yost going bonkers in his managing tonight.

Post Season: 0-2, Season: 1365-1091

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: October 10, 2013

The last of the division series will be decided tonight after the St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 5 of their series yesterday. Today, the Tigers and the Oakland Athletics will play a Game 5 of their own for the second straight year to decide which team will move on to face the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS.

Just like last year, the A's must face Justin Verlander who they could not solve last year and in the second game of this year's ALDS. Their home field advantage did not help them last year. Will it help the A's this year?

The pick:

• The Detroit Tigers over the Oakland Athletics: This game has several scenarios that could happen. The A's have taken a huge gamble by bringing back Sonny Gray to start instead of Colon. After the second game of the series, will the Tigers have a better gauge on Gray? Scenario one: Gray and Verlander are again dominant and the A's again win late because of the Tigers' bullpen. Scenario two: The cracks in Verlander's season reappear here in Game 5 and the A's get to him early with Gray being good enough to get to the A's bullpen. Scenario three: Neither pitcher is effective and the A's win a slugfest with superior defense. Scenario four: Verlander is again dominant and the A's pay the price for starting a  young and inexperienced pitcher in the biggest game of the season. The trick is to pick which scenario is more likely. As much as I'd like to believe the first three scenarios are possible, the last one seems the most probable. Verlander has been here before and knows what to do. Sonny Gray is being asked to pull off a miracle. I don't see it happening.

Yesterday: 1-0

Post season: 13-7

Season: 1387-1075

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: October 8, 2013

You could not ask for much more excitement than yesterday's playoff action. Four thrilling games in one day left my picks at 2-2. But seriously, who cares this time of year. It is all a crap shoot anyway.

The Dodgers could not do much with Freddy Garcia and fumbled a couple of unearned runs onto Clayton Kershaw's column. But Juan Uribe had another great post season in him and pushed the Dodgers into the NLCS.

The Cardinals won a thriller against the Pirates, who only tallied one hit the entire game. Michael Wacha was sensational and Matt Holliday took care of what offense they needed. That series is going to a Game 5.

The Red Sox and Rays probably played the most entertaining game in one that went back and forth until Jose Lobaton hit a homer into the rays tank off the best reliever in baseball to walk off a win and stay alive.

And the day started with the game that had the least amount of drama at least until Grant Balfour acted like the biggest jerk in the world in the ninth during his save as the A's beat the Tigers to go up 2-1 in that series.

Today's two games are going to seem like a letdown. But a lot can be decided in the two ALDS games. Either the Tigers and Rays will tie the series and send them to five games or they go home.

The picks:

• The Red Sox over the Rays: Jeremy Hellickson will have the shortest of leashes or the Rays will come back with Matt Moore. We will have to see as the day goes along. But either way, the Red Sox have shown the ability to hit both, so it should not matter. What does matter is what kind of game Jake Peavy pitches. This is why the Red Sox got the guy and he is the toughest of competitors. But that does not mean he will pitch well. And anything can happen in a ballpark that features rings of a dome that are in play or not. Jose Lobaton. I cannot get over that. Will that propel the Rays? It could. But I see a Red Sox win. They are clearly the better team. But the better team does not always win in a five-game series.

• The Tigers over the Athletics: The A's do not have an ace. Well, you could call Bartolo Colon the ace, but he is not really. So there is no question for them staying with the program and having Dan Straily, their fourth starter, pitch today. You never really know what to expect from Straily. Meanwhile, the Tigers will have a decision to make. Do they stick with Doug Fister today and save Max Scherzer for a Game 5 that may never come? Or do they pitch Scherzer on four days rest? If I were them, I would go with Scherzer and then you still have Verlander for Game 5 if they win. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder have been invisible in this series and Austin Jackson has been Curtis Granderson-like with all the strikeouts. It will be an interesting day in Detroit.

Yesterday: 2-2

Post season: 10-7

Season: 1384-1075

MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 7, 2013

Both games were picked correctly yesterday though the Dodgers - Braves game did not go according to what I envisioned. Hyun-jin Ryu was ineffective for the Dodgers and they quickly went to Chris Capuano. That decision won the game because Capuano was terrific and he earned the win. The Braves, as we shall see in a minute, are now in big trouble.

The Pirates also have the Cardinals on the ropes, but we shall see if the shortness of their rotation becomes a factor as they lack a shut down guy today and if the series extends, have to come back with A.J. Burnett, who was shellacked in his last outing.

The two ALDS games will be exciting too. The Tigers and A's are tied and the series goes to Detroit. The Red Sox have a chance to sweep the Rays but must do so down in St. Pete. Four big games today. It should be fascinating.

The picks:

• The Tigers over the Athletics: Jarrod Parker is my problem here. At times, he looks spectacular and on others, not so much. His one start against the Tigers this season was disastrous. His home/road splits do not tell us much nor do his day/night splits. I think the Tigers hit him. Anibal Sanchez goes for the Tigers and few people realize what a great season he had. His record does not pop out at you, but he is right there among the leaders in many categories. If he pitches well, the Tigers win.

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: This game completely depends on how Michael Wacha pitches. The young stud pitcher for St. Louis has the kind of arm that can shut down anyone. But he is young and he makes mistakes. If he can limit them today and get off to a good start, the Cardinals win. If he doesn't start well, then anything can happen with the fans in Pittsburgh going nuts. Charlie Morton does not strike fear in anyone. He is a pitcher totally dependent on BABIP or where his batted balls go upon contact.

• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: I see a sweep. Clay Buchholz has been unbelievable this season and if he is good today, the Rays will not get him. I questioned Lackey in Game 2, but as a Twitter pal pointed out, Lackey is better at home and if the Red Sox won, could come back with Buchholz for game, set and match. The only sticking point is Alex Cobb, who has been amazing himself. But that amazing goes against every team except the Red Sox. The Red Sox can make any pitcher look mortal and if that offense shows up, there will be nothing Cobb can do to stop them. Cobb lost only three games this season. One of them was to the Red Sox. Overall, he faced them four times and had a 5.16 ERA against them.

• The Dodgers over the Braves: The Braves are in big trouble and I see the Dodgers closing out the series today. Fredi Gonzalez's decision to bring Alex Wood into the game as a long reliever in yesterday's game means that Freddy Garcia will start for them today. Excuse me while I pause to gag. Oh, Freddy is capable of a surprise good start. He has done it a couple of times this season. But he has given up 18 homers in just 81 innings. Yeah, that's bad. Alex Wood should have started this game and Garcia should have performed the long relief. Of course, Ricky Nolasco had a great start with the Dodgers and kind of petered out as the season went along. But gosh, all he has to do is be ordinary today and the Dodgers should win.

Yesterday: 2-0

Post season: 8-5

Season: 1382-1073

Put to rest the run support asterisk with Scherzer

I can picture in my mind that moment when Brian Kenney of the MLB Network saw his dreams of someone other than Max Scherzer winning the Cy Young Award went poof. Scherzer was going to be Kenney's poster boy for the meaninglessness of the win statistic so he could show that guys like King Felix and Darvish were the better pitchers. The problem for Kenney became that Scherzer, despite the run support and the wins was the best pitcher in the American League in 2013.

And then we get this headline from Jim Caple at ESPN after Scherzer's playoff win against the A's yesterday: "Run support no big deal for Scherzer." In Caple's defense, his point was that Scherzer showed why the pitcher was the Cy Young Award's best candidate. But Caple got to the point by bringing up the tired argument:

"Hmmm. Apparently, Max Scherzer can also win when he doesn't get great run support. Funny how good pitchers can do that.

Scherzer received the third-highest run support in the majors -- nearly six runs per game -- during the regular season, leading some critics to complain that his 21 wins were as much a testament to his teammates' bats as his pitching. That is, if they gave any credence to wins at all."

Caple is basically saying the same thing I have been saying here for the last couple of months, so I should be grateful. But for me, I will not be happy until Scherzer can be mentioned without the run support even coming up in the conversation. Put it to rest already.

Max Scherzer beat league averages no matter what he received for run support. Yes, he received an average of six runs plus run support per game. But it is not like he received that every game. The American League averages for starting pitchers for run support went like this:

• 0-2 Runs = 30.2% of occurrences
• 3-5 Runs = 39.8%
• 6 or more = 30%

Scherzer's were indeed skewed as his same percentages were: 15.6%, 40.6% and 43.8% respectively. While his 3-5 run games of support were near the norm, he only had five starts with two or less and fourteen with more than six. But again, he beat the norms in every category. Here are the league winning percentages in those splits:

• 0-2 runs = .121 winning percentage
• 3-5 runs = .534 
• 6 or more = .915

Scherzer's winning percentages in those same splits were: .250, 1.000, 1.000. Those wins were no accident. And let's for a moment, compare them to the great season Verlander put up in 2011 in his Cy Young Award winning season. Verlander's occurrences 17.6%, 50% and 32.3%. So Verlander also received a lot of run support in 2011. I do not remember that being so hotly debated during that season as far as his winning percentage. All of Verlander's losses that season were in the six (and only six) occurrences of when the Tigers scored zero to two runs in a game. That is basically the same as what happened to Scherzer this season.

Was Scherzer's season up to Verlander's 2011 standard? No, I don't think so. I don't think many seasons like Verlander's in 2011 come up very often in one lifetime. But Scherzer was clearly this year's best pitcher in the American League and run support had little to do with it.

But now perhaps with this playoff win, people can stop saying Scherzer's name without having to include the run support thing in the same sentence or paragraph. The win statistic is not the most important statistic to rate a pitcher. I get that. But for a starting pitcher, it is far from meaningless. Scherzer was the winningest pitcher in the American League. But he was also the best.

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: October 5, 2013

Yesterday was the equivalent of baseball porn as we had playoff baseball for more than thirteen hours. The first two games were blowouts as the Red Sox blew out the Rays (you cannot just blame Wil Myers) and the Pirates, in impressive fashion, derailed a bit the Cardinals hunt for redbird October (there is not surprisingly a website by that name).

The later two games were much more thrilling and both were one-run games. Max Scherzer showed why he is now the Tigers' ace and not that other guy and Zack Greinke was pulled an inning too soon as his replacement coughed up two runs the Dodgers could not overcome. Yes, Michael Young did get a pinch hit single that Greinke may or may not have produced (he is a good hitter for a pitcher). But a double-play killed that rally, the Dodgers did not score and the two runs the Braves scored off of Greinke's inexperienced reliever cost the game.

How did the picks fare in all this? They split, 2-2. The Pirates surprised me and good for them and their fans. It's great the series now goes back to Pittsburgh so that entire city can celebrate. The Braves win was much less unexpected. That was a game that could have gone either way and it did fall away from what I predicted.

How boring, there are only two playoff games today and they are both American League games. Heh. The picks:

• The Rays over the Red Sox: This is a tough one because you cannot predict how each pitcher will fare against the other's lineup. If you go by just the pitching match-up, you would naturally think that David Price is a better pick than John Lackey. But the Red Sox mash the baseball and Price is going to have to pitch the game of his life. If Lackey survives the first inning, he could frustrate this pick also. I think I would have gone with Clay Buchholz in this game to try to go up two heading to Tropicana. But we'll see how it all works out.

• The Tigers over the Athletics: Sonny Gray is the big wildcard in this game. I have loved this kid all season, but to ask him to come up big in this setting? The Indians tried the same thing with Salazar and it did not work. Another unknown is what kind of effort the Tigers will get from Justin Verlander. He certainly fell off the most feared list this season. But I would not put it against him in a big ballpark to do well in this game. Verlander will need to get ahead in the counts and go from there. Neither of these offenses consistently crank. It all seems hit or miss sometimes. The Tigers scored three runs in the first yesterday and then died the rest of the game. I have to go with Verlander. Uh oh, I just picked both home teams to lose. Yikes!

Yesterday: 2-2

Post season: 6-3

Season: 1380-1071

MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 4, 2013

Yesterday's playoff games went pretty much how I expected them to go. Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright were the aces they were billed to be and the other teams could not stay with them with their own pitchers. There was not a whole lot of drama involved.

Today could be different. There are four games being played, which is about as good as playoff baseball gets. None of the games are as clear-cut as yesterday. It will be fascinating to see what happens.

Friday's playoff picks:

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: This game will make or break the Pirates. If they go down by two games, it will be impossible (in my opinion) to come back. If they can win the game, anything can happen. Lance Lynn would not be starting this game if it wasn't for his last four starts of the season when he regained his mojo. He had a real bad stretch including two poor games against the Pirates before that. So the Pirates have beat him up pretty good. Gerrit Cole was great down the stretch too, but the problem for me in that run was that he did not face one single tough offense in his last ten starts. That will not be the case today. I have to go with the home team here and the better offense. The Cardinals just know how to do this.
• The Red Sox over the Rays: This game is really intriguing. Matt Moore goes for the Rays and he pitched against the Red Sox twice this season and dominated them like few other pitchers have been able to do. He went 2-0 against them with an ERA of 1.84. He was particularly brilliant in Fenway where he is today. So why pick against him? Jon Lester is 7-1 in day games. It is his best split. He is not as good against the Rays as Moore has been against the Red Sox. The Rays are on a roll and have been playing steadily. The Red Sox have sat around for a while. This will be interesting. I am going with what I perceive to be the better team at home.
• The Dodgers over the Braves: I pretty much know what Mike Minor is going to do. He will do what he always does. He has not given up more than four runs in his last ten starts. So Minor will hold the Dodgers to four runs or less for six or seven innings. The big question is what will Zack Greinke do? I have this lack of trust in Greinke. But looking back over his last ten games, he has been brilliant. Minor is a fly ball pitcher which plays well in Dodgers Stadium. Greinke has to be the pick because of his season and pitching in a spacious park.
• The Tigers over the Athletics: I have trouble buying into either of these teams. They can look as awful as they look good. But it is hard to forget how the Tigers flipped on a switch of sorts in the playoffs last year and just blanked everybody. Max Scherzer can do that to the A's. As far as the A's are concerned, they send Bartolo Colon to the mound. How can you doubt old Bartolo? I have all season and look what he has done? He is not a fluke. But in the back of my mind is that start he has every once in a while where he gives up like four homers. So this game comes down to which pitcher can have a bad day and Colon seems more capable of that than Scherzer.

Yesterday: 2-0

Post season: 4-1

Week: 14-6

Season: 1378-1069

Strikeouts came back to bite Athletics

Back in early September, the one worry presented in this space for the Cinderella Oakland Athletics was their prestigious strikeout rate. At the time that post was created, the fear was that the inability of the A's to make consistent contact would prevent them from getting to the playoffs. Well, that fear was unfounded as the team had a remarkable run to the finish line. But the bugaboo of whiffs did ultimately sink them in their series against the Tigers.

Oh, the Tigers' pitching did have something to do with that. After all, Justin Verlander pitched twice in the series and Max Scherzer had a better strikeout rate than his CYA teammate. But still, the inability to hit the ball and put it in play sunk the A's. They struck out 29.5 percent of their plate appearances in this series. After watching all the series this week, it was thought with Granderson and A-Rod that the Yankees were striking out more (both those players have nine each). But the Yankees strikeout rate for their series is 22.9 percent.

The Oakland A's led the American League in strikeouts this season. It was always a problem that was masked by an incredible penchant to get the most out of every young starter and make every run count. They truly had a remarkable season and should be proud and thrilled with how far they came this season. But ultimately, against tough opposition pitching, you have to find a way to put the ball in play. When you do so, you at least have a chance to make things happen. The A's could not do that enough in their ALDS and it ultimately cost them.

							strikeout
	G	PA	AB	BB	SO	OPS	Perc.
Yoenis Cespedes	5	21	19	2	2	0.749	9.5%
Coco Crisp	5	22	22	0	2	0.5	9.1%
Josh Donaldson	5	18	17	1	4	0.686	22.2%
Stephen Drew	5	21	19	2	7	0.602	33.3%
Jonny Gomes	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0%
George Kottaras	4	4	4	0	2	0	50.0%
Brandon Moss	5	17	15	2	7	0.411	41.2%
Derek Norris	5	12	12	0	6	0.167	50.0%
Cliff Pennington	5	17	14	3	4	0.697	23.5%
Josh Reddick	5	18	17	1	10	0.461	55.6%
Seth Smith	5	18	15	3	6	0.716	33.3%

There is no blame here. The A's took the series to the brink. They played great and had a great season. The only thing this post is trying to state is that the team had too many players that did not put the ball in play. You can survive a couple. But when six of your regular players are above 30 percent strikeout rates, it makes it that much tougher to score runs against very good pitching.

Even so, congrats, Oakland Athletics, on your wonderful ride and season. It was a blast.

Game Picks - Friday: October 12, 2012

The Game Picks continued its utter futility at picking this post season. It's silly really. There were four games yesterday and only the Tigers win behind a studly performance by Justin Verlander was correct. Phil Hughes only allowed one run in his start for the Yankees. Normally, if that happened, He would win nineteen of twenty times. But the Orioles would not let the Yankees score more than one run in an unbelievable performance of hitting the margins all day. The Nationals proved their metal by their win over the Cardinals, their first ever in Washington, D.C to force a Game Five. And the Giants, behind Buster Posey, simply won a battle of will against the Reds, who never stopped trying. None of those things were predicted here.

And so there are two Game Fives today. By the end of the day, one fan base will be crushed and the other will be exultant. Which will it be? You are asking this game picker at this point? We'll all be watching together to find out. But just for the sake of doing the job and getting it done, here are Friday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Orioles: There is less and less confidence that the Yankees will ever hit in this series. Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson could not hit a beachball with their bats right now. And the Orioles' pitching has been unbelievable in their ability to keep the ball out of the middle of the plate. Jason Hammel is just like all the rest of the Orioles. No knee? No reps? No problem. Start the game and look like Cy Young for six innings. The Yankees fate rests in the hands of C.C. Sabathia. If he is ace-like, the Yankees should win. If he is not, they lose. Simple as that.

• The Nationals over the Cardinals: This one should be a great game. The Nationals win IF Gio Gonzalez pitches the game of his life and IF their batters can get to Adam Wainwright early. Those are two big if statements. They will have the home crowd to cheer them on and they have to remember and perform like they were the best team in the National League this season. These two teams combined for six total hits yesterday. So if that happens again, it's a total crap shoot...which describes just about every playoff game thus far.

Yesterday: 1-3

Post season: 7-13

Season: 1340-1080