MLB Playoffs: Is It Too Easy For Davy To Beat Goliath?

The New York Yankees emerged from the four division series as the only team that had an easy time moving on. Of course, for Yankee fans, that was a lot of fun. For Twins' fans, not so much. But the other three series have been utterly fascinating while going the distance. We had a blowout Game Five in Atlanta as the Cardinals surprisingly moved on. And we had heartbreak in Los Angeles for Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. Tonight we find out who will emerge from the remaining division series as those scrappy Rays take the Astros to the limit.

The five-game series format of the division series does post angst of whether it is the best format for this stage of the Major League Baseball season. It seems to make it easier that the best team can be beaten in the frenzy. The Dodgers were easily the best team in the National League and they are going home. If the Rays pull off the impossible and beat the Astros tonight, then the best team in the American League will go home. That is a big "If" of course. But if it does, that means that both of the bests and most favored in their respective leagues will end their seasons against wildcard teams.

The wildcard gives those teams the sense of being the underdog with absolutely no pressure. The underdog is not expected to win. So they can play with abandon while the Number One seeds have all the pressure to go the distance because of the expectations. Since the five-game format does lead to such excitement, and because nobody wants to play baseball in the snow, I would leave that format as is, but I would make one tweak.

There has to be a bigger benefit for a top seed against a wildcard team. There has to be a premium for having the best record and winning a division. A wildcard team does not have home field advantage with the 2-2-1 format. But I think the format still gives a wildcard team a route to get a playoff series win. If the wildcard wins its two games at home, then you are guaranteed a Game Five (unless the wildcard team took one of the first two on the road). And anything can happen in a Game Five as we have seen.

I propose that the wildcard team only gets one home game out of the five. Again, there needs to be a reason to win a division and have the best record. Would a team such as the Yankees have fought harder down the stretch for the best record in the AL if they knew it meant four home games in the division series? I think so. As for the wildcard team, there has to be a real disadvantage for not winning a division. I think a 2-1-2 format does that.

This will never happen, of course, as there would be an outcry from the Nationals or the Rays about lost revenue. But my answer to them would be, "Then win the division!" If you think about it, the wildcard teams have just as much of a shot as the Twins and Cardinals received. I don't think that's right. There has to be a real benefit for winning the division and a real cost for not winning a division.

The National League Championship Series will feature the unlikely match-up of the Nationals against the Cardinals with the Cardinals getting a 4-3 home field advantage. I am not sure I would mess with that as a seven-game series seems to benefit the best team. But if a wildcard was involved, you could make it a 5-2 split something like 2-2-3. But, again, the seven-game format does make it harder for the emotional edge a five-game series gives a team as an underdog.

The American League is yet to be determined. And even though my Yankees are involved, I would want them to play the Astros. You want the two best teams slugging it out. There is a reason a heavyweight fight draws more than a welterweight. Plus, having half the games (or three of them) in that abomination of a stadium in St. Pete is not good for baseball. Plus, the Yankees have played the Rays 19 times already. Enough already! Facing the Rays in the ALCS is like playing Whack-A-Mole after winning the division over them in the first place.

It has been a fascinating playoffs already. And the buzz is good for baseball. You cannot ask for much better than having three of the four series go the distance. On the other hand, you want the best teams slugging it out in the Championship Series and the current format only gives division winners a slight advantage of making that happen. With apologies to wildcard teams and not denigrating the accomplishment of making it as a wildcard team, there should be a bigger penalty for not winning the division. We need to make it harder for Davy to beat Goliath.

Two wild card teams in the World Series

We are a game away from the 2014 World Series being populated by wild card teams. I don't believe this is something that is bad or wrong. I do not write about this because the two teams did not earn or deserve to get as far as they have gotten. There is just an uneasiness about two teams that did not win their respective divisions after 162 games battling for the title.

It's not like it happens often. I don't recall another World Series like it. I do remember the Cardinals winning the World Series as a wild card team in 2011. I do know of some Cardinal fans that were slightly embarrassed about the fact. It doesn't really bother me greatly, but again, there is some uneasiness about those six teams that won divisions sitting at home watching the Series along with the rest of us.

I think part of my problem is the current way in which wild card teams are handled as far as home field advantage goes. In the division series, the wild card faces a 2-2-1 scenario with the middle two games as the only home games. Then in the LCS, the series is handled in a 2-3-2 scenario. My problem is the middle two games.

I believe that the wild card team should have at least one home game in the division series and at least two in the LCS. A team's fans deserve to get to cheer for their team in the post season. I would never advocate taking away home games for wild card teams. But again, there is a problem.

The first problem is if the wild card team wins at least one of the two first two away games in either series. Since most teams have at least one "ace" pitcher, the odds of that happening are pretty strong. And if the wild card team can win one of those first two games, then the series (either one) moves to the wild card city where a series can be put away entirely while in the wild card team's city.

Let's take the current Giants - Cardinals series in the NLCS. The Giants have an ace in Madison Bumgarner. So the team's odds of winning one of the two games in St. Louis is pretty strong. I get that the team still has to win a game and the Cardinals have good pitching too...at least in theory.

So the Giants win one of the two games in St. Louis and then play the next three in San Francisco. Once past the ace, a game can be aided by the home town crowd, a team's comfort level at home, etc. So the Cardinals have a three-game slog through extra adversity just to try to survive to get back to where they would have the advantage at home. I'm not sure that is weighted correctly for a division winner and a team that did not win a division.

If the series goes to the max (five games or seven), then the division winner has the advantage. But how often does that happen? So how would you go about fixing this situation?

One way is to have the opening two games in the wild card team's home stadium. Then the series is finished entirely at the home of the division winner. This reverses the current situation for the better.

Before I support other options, I need to interject a fundamental thought. It is my belief that the wild card team's options should be more difficult than a team that won a division. Basically, what happens now is that once a wild card team gets past the wild card game, the current set up actually favors them and that is not fundamentally correct.

Another option is to cut down the home games for the wild card to one in the division series and two in the LCS. I don't like this as much because fans of any post season team deserve the chance to root for their teams and quite frankly, any post season team deserves to gain the extra revenue from home games.

In the last stated option, the division series would go 2-1-2 and the LCS would go to 2-2-3. Frankly, once a team gets to the World Series, they have earned the right to be there and all bets are off and neither team deserves any breaks.

One last option is the most drastic. It would include adding one more wild card team in each league for a total of three and then you drop the wild card game and have three concurrent division series with the three division winners all facing a wild card team in the first option format.

My conclusion and my contention is that the current format actually favors the wild card team, especially if it can win one of the first two games of either series. And carrying a system that favors a wild card team over a division winner just doesn't seem right from where I sit.

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: October 7, 2014

Perhaps like the Nationals, these playoff game picks are making a comeback after a 2-0 night last night. The ten-game winning streak rule was certainly a factor just as I predicted against the Giants and John Lackey was every bit as good as I thought he would be against the Dodgers. Who would have ever predicted Matt Carpenter's power display or the winning runs hit over the fence by Kolten Wong.

Both NLDS series go to a fourth game. Will either of them go to a fifth?

The picks:

• The Cardinals over the Dodgers: The Dodgers are throwing caution to the wind and are asking Clayton Kershaw to save their season on early rest. I think the guy is already tired from having so many stressful outings down the stretch. I don't think the strategy is going to work. Shelby Miller had a strange year. He was awful early in the season and then came on strong. So it is hard to understand how good his stuff is since his season numbers are mundane. I think he shuts the Dodgers down. Trevor Rosenthal sure does make the ninth inning scary, doesn't he?

• The Nationals over the Giants: The Nationals' depth in their rotation saves them here as Gio Gonzalez had a better year than people think. If you look at his peripherals, his WHIP, FIP, K/9 and H/IP were all very good and in line with the rest of his career. My only problem is with his first post season appearance two years ago when he could not throw strikes and walked the farm. He cannot do that today. Ryan Vogelsong also had a better season than what I thought he did. His peripherals were also surprising in some ways. If Gio Gonzalez is on, can Vogelsong keep up? I don't think so. This series goes five.

Yesterday: 2-0, Post Season: 5-9, Season: 1370-1099

MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 6, 2014

At least I was half right yesterday. I did predict the Royals finishing off their unbelievable sweep of the Angels. C.J. Wilson continued his string of post season clunkers and I just knew that he would have nothing to offer yesterday. It's sort of a shame to have a great season like the Angels did only to not win a single playoff game. But that's baseball and huzzahs to the Royals and the team's fans for a great series victory and a chance to face the Orioles in the ALCS.

I did not pick the Orioles to sweep yesterday and I should have. They are a juggernaut right now and will be tough for anybody to beat. Everything they have is working including manager, Buck Showalter. Congrats to the Orioles and that team's fans as well.

Now it is the NLDSs' turn. Will the Nationals go the way of the Angels and the Tigers? Can they win a post season game? And the Cardinals and Dodgers is the only series so far where both teams have won a game. What will happen there?

The picks:

• The Nationals over the Giants: Remember this season how every streak ended at ten? If a team lost ten in a row, that team would win the eleventh. If a team won ten in a row, that team would lose the eleventh. It happened all season. That is why I pick the Nationals. Madison Bumgarner is as good as it gets. But Doug Fister is nearly as good and also has a great post season repertoire. None of the other series have been able to avoid the sweep. But because of the ten game rule, I have to go with the Nationals.

• The Cardinals over the Dodgers: I have looked at this game from every angle. First, Hyun-jin Ryu beat the Cardinals last year in the playoffs with a scoreless outing. Secondly, he has pitched better on the road this year than at home, which surprised me. But he hasn't pitched since September 12 and I have to wonder how healthy he is. And after being out that long, will he pitch for long in this game? And if not, will the bullpen hold up? Then there is John Lackey. If the country's baseball fans already hate the Cardinals, how much will that be ramped up with Lackey on the mound. The guy is not exactly easy to like. But he has a ton of post season experience. Can he be better than he was for the Cardinals after the trade? I don't know. But that's my final call. The Cardinals at home with Lackey against a guy with uncertain health.

Yesterday: 1-1, Post season: 3-9, Season: 1368-1099

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: October 4, 2014

My post season picking is only going slightly better than Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton's post season hitting. I mean, holy cow already. Clayton Kershaw with a 6-1 lead looked pretty darned good for that pick to hold up, right? What!? And who would ever thought that Jake Peavy...the same Jake Peavy that was practically run out of Boston, would pitch in the playoffs and allow only two hits?

The one thing you cannot say is that this post season baseball has been boring. In a year dominated by pitching, the offensive fireworks have been spectacular. The only problem for many fans right now is a real tiredness with it looking like another Cardinals - Giants NLCS. To most fans, that would be a tired rehash of the two same teams that have dominated the last five years.

But how much different would an Orioles - Royals ALCS be? That would be something. We won't find out for another day how that is going to go because the ALDS has the day off today. It's all NLDS. But don't think we get any day baseball. Heck no. The East Coast will be up all night again if they want to watch the games. Thanks, MLB, your money-grubbing ways know no bounds.

Today's picks:

• The Nationals over the Giants: Looking at the pitching match-ups, you would have to go with the Nationals here. Tim Hudson has looked over the hill for two months now. And Jordan Zimmermann has been filthy the past two months ending the season with a no-hitter. That last fact scares me a bit. Pitchers never seem to pitch well after a no-hitter. Have you noticed that? And this is the Giants after all, who never, ever seem to lose a post season game. Egads! I am freaking myself out.

• The Cardinals over the Dodgers: You just have to go with the Cardinals now. If Kershaw is no obstacle, what is? Lance Lynn has had a terrific season and can bully hitters. And Zack Greinke is not as great as Kershaw. Don't get me wrong, Greinke is very good, but still.  The Dodgers sure seem to have a lot of loose cannons and bad chemo. It's just an odd team. The real wild card in this game (that isn't a wild card game) is that these two managers, Mike Matheny and Don Mattingly, might be the worst in-game strategists in baseball.

Yesterday: 1-3, Post season: 2-6, Season: 1367-1096

MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 3, 2014

The two home teams in the ALDS had completely opposite days. The Orioles romped and the Angels lost to a gritty Royals team that knows how to play those close games. The results gave me a 1-1 day picking. At least I finally got my first correct pick of the post season.

Of course it was the extra-inning game that got me yesterday. And the home loss puts the Angels in a bind. Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton went a combined 0-13 in the game. There is no way the Angels win if that continues.

Today is playoff nirvana with four games. If you were so inclined, you could watch all four games from noon today (Eastern Time) through after midnight. It should be a fun day.

The picks:

• The Orioles over the Tigers: Again, there is something about this Orioles team. They just seem to have it, if you know what I mean. Justin Verlander is no longer the top dog on the Tigers' rotation and the Orioles already beat the top dog. Wei-Yin Chen is the wild card here. How he pitches will depend on how the game goes. I'm going Orioles.
• The Nationals over the Giants: Stephen Strasburg worries me. How will he pitch today? But Jake Peavy scares me more. The odds of the Nationals' lineup getting to Peavy seem greater in this case. Peavy has been here before, however, and Strasburg has not.
• The Dodgers over the Cardinals: What a great match-up this is (on paper). Clayton Kershaw versus Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been through this a half dozen times and knows what he has to do. Kershaw has had one crack at it and did not do well. But head to head, you've got to believe that Kershaw completely shuts down the Cardinals while Wainwright begrudgingly gives up a two-spot.
• The Angels over the Royals: Nothing like picking only home teams, there, William. How has that worked out for you so far? Not very good. I worry more about Yordano Ventura than I do Matt Shoemaker. But the worry for Shoemaker is his health. He didn't pitch the last couple of weeks and who knows how effective he will be. If this was the Matt Shoemaker that was on the roll for July and August, I would not hesitate. Now there is much hesitation.

Yesterday: 1-1, Post Season: 1-3, Season: 1366-1093

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: October 9, 2013

After yesterday's games, the Red Sox are in and the Tigers get to fight another day. The Tigers forced a Game 5 with a thrilling (and disputed) win over the Athletics. Yesterday, I speculated on whether Max Scherzer would start instead of Doug Fister. He did not. But Fister was decent and Scherzer did pitch after all and got the win in relief. After all, he got the run support, right?

The Red Sox could not afford to let their series get to a fifth game and ended their series with a third win down in St. Pete. I think the Red Sox are going to win it all, but let's see what happens. What I do know is that Joe Maddon emptied his pitching staff to get a win and could not get it done because his offense could not score more than a run against Jake Peavy and a great bullpen. Koji Uehara did not blow this one and made the Rays look silly in the ninth. You know what was brilliant? The Red Sox making Rodney throw strikes. Brilliant.

We are left with two Game Fives to figure out the rest of the ALCS and NLCS casts of characters. The NLDS will conclude today and the ALDS tomorrow.

Today's pick:

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: This is not the most confident pick I've ever made. This game really feels like it could go either way. The Pirates were smart to bypass A.J. Burnett, who is not a good match-up against the Cardinals, and will instead go with Gerrit Cole. Have you ever seen a playoff series rely on young pitchers as much as this one? Cole will have to be pretty darn good for the Pirates to have a chance here. While Adam Wainwright is in the ace category, he is not unstoppable. He can be had for two to four runs. Or he could shut the door too. It depends on how strong he comes out of the gate. The Cardinals have everything set up their way. The game is in their bullpark. They have their ace on the mound. Now they have to execute. The Pirates will need to play their best game of the season to continue their Cinderella's ball.

Yesterday: 2-0

Post Season: 12-7

Season: 1386-1075

MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 7, 2013

Both games were picked correctly yesterday though the Dodgers - Braves game did not go according to what I envisioned. Hyun-jin Ryu was ineffective for the Dodgers and they quickly went to Chris Capuano. That decision won the game because Capuano was terrific and he earned the win. The Braves, as we shall see in a minute, are now in big trouble.

The Pirates also have the Cardinals on the ropes, but we shall see if the shortness of their rotation becomes a factor as they lack a shut down guy today and if the series extends, have to come back with A.J. Burnett, who was shellacked in his last outing.

The two ALDS games will be exciting too. The Tigers and A's are tied and the series goes to Detroit. The Red Sox have a chance to sweep the Rays but must do so down in St. Pete. Four big games today. It should be fascinating.

The picks:

• The Tigers over the Athletics: Jarrod Parker is my problem here. At times, he looks spectacular and on others, not so much. His one start against the Tigers this season was disastrous. His home/road splits do not tell us much nor do his day/night splits. I think the Tigers hit him. Anibal Sanchez goes for the Tigers and few people realize what a great season he had. His record does not pop out at you, but he is right there among the leaders in many categories. If he pitches well, the Tigers win.

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: This game completely depends on how Michael Wacha pitches. The young stud pitcher for St. Louis has the kind of arm that can shut down anyone. But he is young and he makes mistakes. If he can limit them today and get off to a good start, the Cardinals win. If he doesn't start well, then anything can happen with the fans in Pittsburgh going nuts. Charlie Morton does not strike fear in anyone. He is a pitcher totally dependent on BABIP or where his batted balls go upon contact.

• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: I see a sweep. Clay Buchholz has been unbelievable this season and if he is good today, the Rays will not get him. I questioned Lackey in Game 2, but as a Twitter pal pointed out, Lackey is better at home and if the Red Sox won, could come back with Buchholz for game, set and match. The only sticking point is Alex Cobb, who has been amazing himself. But that amazing goes against every team except the Red Sox. The Red Sox can make any pitcher look mortal and if that offense shows up, there will be nothing Cobb can do to stop them. Cobb lost only three games this season. One of them was to the Red Sox. Overall, he faced them four times and had a 5.16 ERA against them.

• The Dodgers over the Braves: The Braves are in big trouble and I see the Dodgers closing out the series today. Fredi Gonzalez's decision to bring Alex Wood into the game as a long reliever in yesterday's game means that Freddy Garcia will start for them today. Excuse me while I pause to gag. Oh, Freddy is capable of a surprise good start. He has done it a couple of times this season. But he has given up 18 homers in just 81 innings. Yeah, that's bad. Alex Wood should have started this game and Garcia should have performed the long relief. Of course, Ricky Nolasco had a great start with the Dodgers and kind of petered out as the season went along. But gosh, all he has to do is be ordinary today and the Dodgers should win.

Yesterday: 2-0

Post season: 8-5

Season: 1382-1073

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: October 6, 2013

I picked both home teams to lose yesterday and they both won. Oof. I thought that David Price would be much better than he was. Give credit to the Red Sox. They had a good plan against him to attack him early in the count and it worked to perfection. The Tigers - Athletics game could have gone either way. Justin Verlander and Sonny Gray were equally brilliant with Gray lasting an inning longer (eight innings). That inning seemed to make a difference as the Tigers needed their bullpen to be great for the last two innings and it was anything but. Austin Jackson took a Golden Sombrero as he went zero for four with four strikeouts.

All the series are tied at one game each except for the Red Sox, who have a commanding 2-0 lead with Clay Buchholz lined up for Game Three. The two National League games are on tap today. 

The picks:

• The Pirates over the Cardinals: The Cardinals have struggled all season against left-handed pitching and you do not get a much better lefty than Francisco Liriano. Meanwhile, the Cardinals go with Joe Kelly, which is a bit of a surprise considering the other choices they had like Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha. Don't get me wrong, Kelly is very capable of pitching a great game. The Pirates fans have really rocked that home stadium and if the play-in game was any indication, will be a huge factor in this game, especially if the Cardinals' offense doesn't quiet them down early. My only worry in this game is a Liriano meltdown, which occur from time to time. But if he is on, the Pirates win.

• The Dodgers over the Braves: Having Hyun-jin Ryu pitch at home the right call for the Dodgers. His ERA at home is 2.32 and is a run and a half higher on the road. I do not think that Ryu is untouchable. He can be had by a team with a good plan and good execution. I just wonder if the Braves are that kind of team. Ryu did pitch against the Braves twice earlier in the season. He did not get a decision but he pitched well with a 2.13 ERA. The Braves go with Julio Teheran who is quite capable of shutting the Dodgers down too. He pitched well down the stretch, going 7-3 with a 3.47 ERA in his last ten games. I am going with the Dodgers at home.

Yesterday: 0-2

Post season: 6-5

Season: 1380-1073

MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 4, 2013

Yesterday's playoff games went pretty much how I expected them to go. Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright were the aces they were billed to be and the other teams could not stay with them with their own pitchers. There was not a whole lot of drama involved.

Today could be different. There are four games being played, which is about as good as playoff baseball gets. None of the games are as clear-cut as yesterday. It will be fascinating to see what happens.

Friday's playoff picks:

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: This game will make or break the Pirates. If they go down by two games, it will be impossible (in my opinion) to come back. If they can win the game, anything can happen. Lance Lynn would not be starting this game if it wasn't for his last four starts of the season when he regained his mojo. He had a real bad stretch including two poor games against the Pirates before that. So the Pirates have beat him up pretty good. Gerrit Cole was great down the stretch too, but the problem for me in that run was that he did not face one single tough offense in his last ten starts. That will not be the case today. I have to go with the home team here and the better offense. The Cardinals just know how to do this.
• The Red Sox over the Rays: This game is really intriguing. Matt Moore goes for the Rays and he pitched against the Red Sox twice this season and dominated them like few other pitchers have been able to do. He went 2-0 against them with an ERA of 1.84. He was particularly brilliant in Fenway where he is today. So why pick against him? Jon Lester is 7-1 in day games. It is his best split. He is not as good against the Rays as Moore has been against the Red Sox. The Rays are on a roll and have been playing steadily. The Red Sox have sat around for a while. This will be interesting. I am going with what I perceive to be the better team at home.
• The Dodgers over the Braves: I pretty much know what Mike Minor is going to do. He will do what he always does. He has not given up more than four runs in his last ten starts. So Minor will hold the Dodgers to four runs or less for six or seven innings. The big question is what will Zack Greinke do? I have this lack of trust in Greinke. But looking back over his last ten games, he has been brilliant. Minor is a fly ball pitcher which plays well in Dodgers Stadium. Greinke has to be the pick because of his season and pitching in a spacious park.
• The Tigers over the Athletics: I have trouble buying into either of these teams. They can look as awful as they look good. But it is hard to forget how the Tigers flipped on a switch of sorts in the playoffs last year and just blanked everybody. Max Scherzer can do that to the A's. As far as the A's are concerned, they send Bartolo Colon to the mound. How can you doubt old Bartolo? I have all season and look what he has done? He is not a fluke. But in the back of my mind is that start he has every once in a while where he gives up like four homers. So this game comes down to which pitcher can have a bad day and Colon seems more capable of that than Scherzer.

Yesterday: 2-0

Post season: 4-1

Week: 14-6

Season: 1378-1069

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: October 3, 2013

I love Nick Swisher, I do. But his performance in the Wild Card Game last night against the Rays was so reminiscent of past post seasons for him. His first few times up, he had a strikeout and then grounded the ball right into the teeth of the shift when there were no fielders from second base to third. Then, when he had a man on first and third, instead of embracing or understanding the situation, he took three "swing-for-the-fences" swings to strike out when, again, all he had to do is put the ball in play on the left side of the infield.

It was that lack of a plan that sunk the Indians all night. Asdrubal Cabrera basically had the same sort of night as Swisher. Now contrast that with how the Cardinals score runs. That team has a plan and work it to perfection. When there are men on base, they hit the pitch to the opposite field or where it is pitched and just move the line along.

It was sad to see the Indians go home. We always root for the Cinderella team...the underdogs. And in the American League, there are none left.

Speaking of the Cardinals, tonight starts their NLDS against the Pirates, who still qualify as a Cinderella team. Unfortunately, I think the clock is going to strike midnight soon.

The picks:

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: First off, Adam Wainwright was built for these sort of games. He is really hard to beat at home. In three NLDS starts in his career, he has a K/9 rate over twelve. Yes, that's right, over twelve. He pitched well against the Pirates this season. He will be faced by A.J. Burnett. Burnett has been flat out nasty down the stretch. But again, the Cardinals approach to hitting will have a better chance of hitting Burnett's curve than most teams would. With Wainwright having the edge on the mound and the Cardinals having home field and a better offensive club, I cannot see the Cardinals losing this game.
• The Dodgers over the Braves: It took a lot of courage for the Braves to leave Dan Uggla off the NLDS roster. But it was the right call. Now the Braves don't have to worry about what to do with him. Now they have to figure out what to do with Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. If he is on and the Dodgers can score a few runs, they cannot be beat. The question is if Kris Medlen can match zeroes with him. Medlen was great down the stretch and has gotten through his early season struggles. If Medlen can match zeroes, I will take the Braves' bullpen over the Dodgers' version. But I have to think the Dodgers can score two or three and Kershaw holds the Braves to one or none.

Yesterday: 1-0

Week: 12-6

Post Season: 2-1

Season: 1376-1069

Game Picks - Tuesday: October 16, 2012

There was only one pick yesterday and since it included the St. Louis Cardinals, of course it was wrong. Chris Carpenter still looked mean, but he couldn't get the job done as the Giants scored four runs against him (yes, two were unearned) and the Giants won easily. This is a series where the unlikeliest World Series champ of 2010 meets the unlikeliest WS champ of 2011. So anything can happen because both teams know how to pull rabbits out of their hats.

But the NLCS takes a break today and instead we get the Tigers and Yankees. Ugh. Justin Verlander versus Phil Hughes in Detroit. The Yankees are already down, two games to none, have lost Derek Jeter and can't seem to hit a tree four-wheeling in a dense forest.  So is the pick that cut and dried then?

• The Yankees over the Tigers: The Yankees may be on their backs, but they are not dead yet. Verlander is only 5-4 in his career against them and two of his three starts against the Yankees in 2012 have been ordinary. And Phil Hughes is no slouch. Hughes pitched brilliantly against the Orioles in the ALDS and has handled the Tigers pretty well in 2012 and for his career. His career strikeout to walk ratio against the Tigers is 4.0 and it was 3.8 this season in his two outings.The Yankees have nothing to lose, can breathe a little easier being out of New York where everyone is currently against them and perhaps, just perhaps, their bats might come alive. Then again, perhaps Justin Verlander can throw a no-hitter too. As you can see, based on the playoff record of this picker down below, this picker has nothing to lose either.

Yesterday: 0-1

Post season: 9-17  [terrible]

Season: 1342-1084

Strasburg decision will haunt Nationals

This post will not revisit the debate surrounding the decision to shut down Stephen Strasuburg after 159+ innings. The right and wrong arguments do not matter at this point. What does matter is that the Nationals were one and done for post season series in the aftermath and fans of the team, writers and perhaps even the players themselves will forever ask, "What if."

The Nationals were among the best stories of 2012. But the team's wonderful season became a footnote when the circus began about Strasburg. Instead of being celebrated for what the team had become, the team became embattled by its stoic stance to stick to the plan. And to show just how fickle baseball writing can be, the same writers who have long passed judgement on Dusty Baker for "killing" Prior and Wood were lambasting the Nationals for their decision making.

The Nationals did not have to win a World Series title to put aside these questions. But a win in Game Five against the Cardinals would have at least blunted some of the finger-pointing. Instead, a pitching collapse of epic proportions will keep the story in people's minds for a very long time. Nobody knows if Strasburg would have made a difference. Heck, he couldn't have done worse than the way Gio Gonzalez handled that six run lead. It seems that if Strasburg was in there, he would have at least thrown strikes. But he wasn't there, so we will never know.

Much of this current reality can be overcome if the Nationals again make it to the playoffs next year. But if they don't? Well, then the fans grown by that team's season this year will never get over the questions of what might have been.

It has been written this week that the Nationals loss of Strasburg in these playoffs had only a marginal effect. Tell that to the Nationals' fans that just witnessed that pitching meltdown. It had to effect them. Take away one stone from an archway and that archway is not nearly as stable. He was a major stud in that rotation. Did he have his share of clunker starts? Well, yes, he did. Would he have performed well against the Cardinals in the post season? Who knows. We'll never get to know. He would not have been worse than what transpired.

The lost series to the Cardinals was the worst thing to happen to Mike Rizzo and the Nationals. They needed to win at least one series to keep Strasburg from becoming the anchor around their necks. Everything they accomplished this season will be overlooked by the decision. Their 98-win season is moot. A series win might not have made the question go away. But it would have helped. Now, these 2012 Nationals will be plagued by the decision they made forever.

Game Picks - Friday: October 12, 2012

The Game Picks continued its utter futility at picking this post season. It's silly really. There were four games yesterday and only the Tigers win behind a studly performance by Justin Verlander was correct. Phil Hughes only allowed one run in his start for the Yankees. Normally, if that happened, He would win nineteen of twenty times. But the Orioles would not let the Yankees score more than one run in an unbelievable performance of hitting the margins all day. The Nationals proved their metal by their win over the Cardinals, their first ever in Washington, D.C to force a Game Five. And the Giants, behind Buster Posey, simply won a battle of will against the Reds, who never stopped trying. None of those things were predicted here.

And so there are two Game Fives today. By the end of the day, one fan base will be crushed and the other will be exultant. Which will it be? You are asking this game picker at this point? We'll all be watching together to find out. But just for the sake of doing the job and getting it done, here are Friday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Orioles: There is less and less confidence that the Yankees will ever hit in this series. Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson could not hit a beachball with their bats right now. And the Orioles' pitching has been unbelievable in their ability to keep the ball out of the middle of the plate. Jason Hammel is just like all the rest of the Orioles. No knee? No reps? No problem. Start the game and look like Cy Young for six innings. The Yankees fate rests in the hands of C.C. Sabathia. If he is ace-like, the Yankees should win. If he is not, they lose. Simple as that.

• The Nationals over the Cardinals: This one should be a great game. The Nationals win IF Gio Gonzalez pitches the game of his life and IF their batters can get to Adam Wainwright early. Those are two big if statements. They will have the home crowd to cheer them on and they have to remember and perform like they were the best team in the National League this season. These two teams combined for six total hits yesterday. So if that happens again, it's a total crap shoot...which describes just about every playoff game thus far.

Yesterday: 1-3

Post season: 7-13

Season: 1340-1080

Game Picks - Thursday: October 11, 2012

What an incredible night of baseball. Except if you are a fan of the Orioles and Tigers. If so, much sympathies as all baseball fans, especially long-term ones, know exactly how that felt and it is a horrible feeling. But for everyone else, nothing could have beaten the drama displayed as two teams in succession came from behind and walked off with victories. Amazing stuff.

As for the NLDS, both of the picks there yesterday were wrong. Both visiting teams took care of the home teams with ease to push the Reds - Giants series to the brink and gave the Cards a 2-1 lead in their series with the Nationals.

All four series will continue today. There is a possibility that all could end today and only wins by the Orioles and Nationals will extend those two series. The other two are Gave Five events. Wow.

It will be a packed day of baseball, so let's get to the picks:

• The Reds over the Giants: The Reds are taking a pounding in the press over losing the last two games at home after winning the first two games of the series in San Francisco. But geez, these things do happen and the Giants are a playoff team that won a division handily. Two things will have to happen to make this pick a reality. First, Mat Latos has to come up big. Very big. Second, the Reds have to get to Matt Cain a second time which doesn't seem likely. This is a true tossup with the pick going to the home team.
• The Cardinals over the Nationals: Ross Detwiler is starting a game that is a do or die game for the Nationals. This is the truest consequence of the Strasburg decision and one that will be discussed for a very long time, especially if the Nats lose. Kyle Lohse is a very good pitcher who has been here before. He will hold down the Nationals and allow the bats to win the game.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: While not buying the meme that the Orioles will be shell-shocked and dejected, their backs are against the wall (cliche alert!). They have two win two games at Yankee Stadium. If they do beat Phil Hughes tonight, they have Sabathia tomorrow. Tough. Hughes, of course needs to come up big for the Yankees and he is certainly capable. He has to keep the ball in the ballpark. But if he struggles early, David Phelps and Derek Lowe are two good options. This pick is predicated on the belief that Joe Saunders cannot hold the Yankees down.
• The Tigers over the Athletics: Hate making this pick. The A's have been such a fun story and last night was killer. But they get Justin Verlander, and while Verlander is not a god, he is quite the mortal. Jarrod Parker is very good too. The A's only hope here is to have Parker match zeroes with Verlander and make it a bullpen game. If they can do that, they have a good chance. If it is close, one has to wonder if Leyland would go with Jose Valverde again.

Yesterday: 2-2

Post season: 6-10

Season: 1339-1077

Tired of offensive scapegoating in the playoffs

How do teams get to the playoffs? They usually get there by hitting the ball reasonably well and pitching the ball well. Each playoff team has its top pitchers and relievers lined up for a short series. Is it ever a surprise when dominant pitching happens? Heck, in two playoff games yesterday, nineteen innings were played by four teams and the batters went a combined 16 for 121. Oof. That is a .132 batting average combined for all four playoff teams in action yesterday. And yet, despite this reality, a few offensive players are scapegoats for their team's performances. It's stupid.

Take some of these guys who are pretty good players:

• Prince Fielder - one for twelve.
• Josh Reddick - one for ten with six strikeouts.
• Alex Rodriguez - one for nine with five strikeouts.
• Adam Jones - one for eight.
• Bryce Harper - one for ten.
• Matt Holliday - zero for seven.
• Zack Cozart - one for twelve
• Hunter Pence - one for twelve
• Marco Scutaro - one for twelve

Offense is difficult in the post season. The Giants as a team are batting .126. The Orioles are batting .227. The Tigers, .234 and the A's, .198. And yet, only some of these players listed above will get singled out and lambasted for their performances. What's with that?

We are dealing with small sample sizes and crap shoot scenarios. We have no business making any offensive player in this situation a scapegoat. For example, Prince Fielder is one for twelve. He has only struck out once. So his BABIP is .091. That is not a BABIP you would ever see over a long period of time. It is a fluke.

And even for a kid like Bryce Harper who has struck out a lot, look at the pitch charts on Brooks Baseball and see how good the pitching has been against him. This is the playoffs! The pitchers are good!

And yet, nearly every single website and newspaper that covers the Yankees (including the one this Fan writes for) is all over Alex Rodriguez for his nine measly at bats. Bryce Harper is accused of being anxious by a well-respected writer and is speared for having a negative response to such a stupid question.

The criticism is unfair. Everything that happens in the post season are random events packed into a tight space. With a million bloggers fighting for attention, these random events become magnified all out of proportion. If you don't want Derek Jeter over-glorified for his four for nine performance, than you cannot overdo the villain aspect of Alex Rodriguez.

Such blatant over-blaming also influences fan bases who are ever more informed and gobble up articles about their favorite teams. When they read this kind of hyper-criticism, they buy into it and boo and jeer their own players instead of creating an environment of support and cheering their hearts out. It is wrong, writers. Wrong!

It seems that most of the top analysts in the industry such as Dave Cameron and others, forget all about trying to calculate what happens in the post season. The sample sizes are too darn small. Once the post season starts, all you can do is sit back and see what all the randomness brings you. This reduces us to being mere spectators and fans of the events that are happening in front of us. And perhaps that is how it should be.

Game Picks - Tuesday: October 9, 2012

Once again, success picking the outcomes of the post seasons games seem elusive. After another 1-1 night, the post season picks stand at 4-6. The Cardinals were correctly picked, which seems really strange to type. That team's offense exploded and showed why they are the best offense in the National League. Their win split that series at one game a piece with the Nationals as the series heads now to Washington.

The Orioles played a terrific, near flawless game against the Yankees and evened up that series at one game apiece. Oriole pitching, especially in big situations, did a terrific job of pitching on the margins and not in the middle of the plate and the Orioles won, 3-2. That pick, of course, was incorrect. Those two teams will now go to New York to finish up that series in Yankee Stadium.

There are two playoff games today and both could result in series wins for the Tigers and the Reds. The Reds will try to close it out at home and the Tigers must do so at Oakland. Here are Tuesday's picks:

• The Reds over the Giants: The Giants have not been able to generate any offense as they had little to begin with and the Reds' pitching has been terrific. Homer Bailey closed out the season with a no-hitter, so you'd be able to say that he is hitting his stride in his career. The Giants try to stay alive behind Ryan Vogelsong, a pitcher who struggled down the stretch and who doesn't pitch as well on the road as he does at home. His road ERA is a full run higher than his home ERA. The Reds move on and the Giants go home.
• The Tigers over the Athletics: The A's are up against the wall here and will have the benefit of their home fans. But the Tigers simply seem to be too much for the A's to handle. Anibal Sanchez is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball and will use that big ballpark to his advantage. The A's meanwhile, turn to Brett Anderson, who, when healthy, is one heck of a pitcher. But is he healthy? Will he be rusty? How long can he pitch? Anderson is a long shot, but he can pull it off. This game is really a tough one to call.

Yesterday: 1-1
Post season: 4-6
Season: 1,337-1,073

Game Picks - Monday: October 8, 2012

Yesterday was a glorious day of baseball as four playoff games happened and allowed us to watch baseball from noon to midnight. The only sad part was a rain delay in Baltimore that caused one of the games to be shifted to TNT. So the remote came in handy to go back and forth. It was a fun day of highly charged baseball.

The playoff picks did not improve here though. Two were correct. Two were incorrect. So the post season is still in the red in total. The Yankees won the improbable way by teeing off on Jim Johnson, who had been untouchable all season. Bronson Arroyo had great stuff and pitched one-hit ball for seven innings while Madison Bumgarner and company could not get it done against the Reds' offense. That pick was wrong. The bullpen that got the Cardinals so far last season gave them a loss last night as the Nationals, in their first playoff game ever, showed no signs of being overwhelmed. And the Tigers put the Athletics in a 2-0 hole in the series and in deep trouble with a walk-off win.

Two games are scheduled today. In a move that is only inspired by ratings and money and not by common sense, the Cardinals and Reds, an hour behind the east coast in time zones, get the early game and the Yankees - Orioles play at eight o'clock. That simply ensures that those two teams' fans have to stay up well past bedtimes in order to watch. Well done, baseball. Well done. Hope you choke on those network dollars.

Monday's Columbus Day playoff picks:

• The Cardinals over the Nationals: Both Jordan Zimmermann and Jaime Garcia had rough outings earlier in the season against the team they are facing today. But Jaime Garcia is usually outstanding at home and should  allow his team to score a few runs off of Zimmerman. Garcia neutralizes Harper too.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: So the Orioles are down a game to the Yankees in the series. That is familiar territory to them. So they won't panic or anything. But let's say this: Even if he is forty years old, Andy Pettitte is the winningest pitcher in the history of post season baseball. Pettitte is also brilliant at limiting damage despite not having the best stuff around. The Orioles are forced to go with Wei-Yin Chen who has no playoff experience and seemed to wear down toward the end of the season. Chen is left-handed though which gives the Yankees a slightly less deadly lineup. Though Eduardo Nunez at DH is an immense upgrade over Andruw Jones.

Yesterday: 2-2

Post Season: 3-5

Season: 1336-1072

Game Picks - Sunday: October 7, 2012

You have to give credit to Dusty Baker and the Reds for not panicking when Johnny Cueto came up lame. The way the situation was handled, and the way the pitching staff performed was a real credit to the Reds. The Giants, meanwhile, sure put themselves in a hole when their most reliable ace could not hold the Reds down in his own ballpark. For them, it won't get any easier from here. That game pick was wrong though.

Justin Verlander did what he is supposed to do as one of the best pitchers alive. And though he wasn't sharp early, he was late and the Tigers' 3-1 victory was a lot more lopsided than it sounds. As we shall see, the Athletics' task does not get easier from here.

There are four big games on today. This is as good as playoff baseball gets. The picks:

• The Tigers over the Athletics: Talk about unfair. Due to the number of games on the schedule, the A's are basically playing this game at 9:07 A.M. on their West Coast biological clocks. Doug Fister is a proven big game pitcher and again, experience trumps a youngster, even if he is Tommy Milone.
• The Cardinals over the Nationals: You know what? The Cardinals drive this picker crazy. How did they beat the Braves? Was it some kind of voodoo they performed on the fielders gloves of that team? How do they look so mediocre and continue their playoff magic? Adam Wainwright will have no business winning this game. But somehow, he will. Gio Gonzalez will do his best to make sure that doesn't happen. But the game is in St. Louis.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Yes, the Orioles have become a major pain in the Yankees' sides. Middle of the road batters become fearsome sluggers and retread pitchers become Cy Youngs. But if you just look on paper, C.C. Sabathia should beat Jason Hammel, the latter of which has been out of the rotation more often than he has been in it. The Yankees will need to score early to take the O's crowd out of play.
• The Giants over the Reds: Bronson Arroyo should benefit from pitching in the big ballpark in San Francisco. That will take away some of his weakness of the home run ball. But this game completely depends on Madison Bumgarner pitching at home. When he is on, he is lights out and can shut down anyone. He will win the Cy Young Award some day. But will he be on tonight?

Yesterday: 1-1

Post Season: 1-3

Season: 1334-1070