Several teams made big moves during the off season and signed talent they hoped would lead them to greater glory. Some, like Lance Berkman, have paid off. Others have mostly paid off, like Cliff Lee. But some have been downright scary in how poorly they turned out. We are now seventy-one days into the major league season. When is a bust a bust? Is it still too early to tell? Is the sample size still too small? If so, then perhaps this post can be about potential busts instead of outright busts. No matter how you call it, the following players have been drags to their new teams.
Dan Uggla. The Braves were soooo happy to get Dan Uggla in the off season. Here was a guy with noted and consistent pop playing a position that doesn't have many sluggers. The Braves were so happy that they rewarded Uggla with a fat five year contract. But Uggla has been disappointing on many levels, and yes, that is an understatement. His current slash line is from your worst nightmare: .170/.235/.304. Fangraphs has him pegged at -0.9 WAR. That's ugly. Uggla's walk rate is way down. After three years of 12.4, 13.8 and 11.6 percent respectively, Uggla's walk rate is down to 7.6 percent.
Again, is this officially a bust or is it too early yet? Well, there is the matter of Uggla's BABIP, which is an ungodly low of .184. You would have to think that would even out over the long haul. But BABIP is such a tricky issue. Uggla's infield fly ball rate is double his career norms. That's not bad luck. His ground ball percentage is up from a career average of 38.1 percent to 45.9 percent this year. His line drive percentage is the lowest of his career. So it's hard to point to BABIP for this horrid start for Uggla. If Uggla were to hit a solid .300 from today until the end of the season, he would only raise his batting average to .241. Yes, we are getting pretty close to bust time and it's not like Uggla has a history of getting hot in the second half.
Adam Dunn. Dunn is another one without a history of slow starts and big finishes. His monthly average for hits, homers and the like are consistent over the months of his career seasons. That makes his recent start with the White Sox that much closer to bust status. His slash line is better than Uggla's but not by much: .178/.318/.325. His 15.5 percent walk rate helps, but he is such a bad base runner, that his walks lose some value with him on the bases. As a DH, his only job is to hit. He isn't hitting and he is only on pace to hit 18 homers. Since the guy has averaged 38 homers since forever, that's mighty troubling. Dunn's strikeout rate is the highest of his career, his ISO the lowest. His infield fly out rate is two and a half times what it was a year ago. The White Sox are simply snake bit in the DH position.
Dunn did hit a homer yesterday, so that's at least good news.
Aubrey Huff and Miguel Tejada: Re-signing Huff and signing Tejada were a couple of the few off-season moves by the Giants. Huff proves the Fan's old adage: When you find lightning in a bottle with a cheap off season signing, don't ever make the mistake of giving that cheap hurrah a good contract the following year. Of all regular players, that is players who currently qualify for the batting title, Huff is the second least valuable player in baseball and Tejada is fourth. That's not good. The pair have identical .223 batting averages and Tejada has a .246 on base percentage while Huff sits at .286. Huff at least has an OPS of .957 so far in June. So perhaps he can contribute the rest of the way. But he has a long way to go to come close to earning his $11 million in salary. Signing Tejada was simply dumb. He hasn't been a valuable player for years now.
Mark Reynolds: The Orioles hoped they could fix Mark Reynolds when they got him from the Diamondbacks. And indeed, his strikeout rate is markedly down. It's safe to say he won't break his own record this season. And he adds value with his patience at the plate and power. His ISO, wOBA and wRC+ are at acceptable levels despite his continuing batting average south of .200. What makes this acquisition close to being in the bust column is that his fielding has simply vanished. Miguel Tejada wasn't any great shakes as a third baseman for the Orioles, but Reynolds' glove thus far makes Tejada look like Brooks Robinson. Reynolds has a negative WAR of -0.2.
Other batting busts or heading in bust territory: Yuniesky Betancourt. But it's not like much was expected there. Vernon Wells. Good golly. What were the Angels thinking? Lyle Overbay. The Fan really thought Overbay was going to have a big season. Not yet anyway. And, of course, Chone Figgins is the bust that keeps on giving for two seasons now.
Showing posts with label Miguel Tejada. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miguel Tejada. Show all posts
Friday, June 10, 2011
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Two Outs For the Price of One
The double play has been called the pitcher's best friend and for good reason. It's a pretty good deal when you can get two outs for the price of one pitch. A while back, this site featured a post stating that pitchers should have an adjusted Walks plus Hits Per Innings Pitched (WHIP) that takes ground balls double plays into account. Pitchers like Mark Buehrle give up a lot of hits which leads to a high WHIP. But if he induces double play grounders in the course of a season, shouldn't there be an adjustment to WHIP to reflect that? The converse is also true. A batter should have his batting average adjusted for the times he grounds into a double play. After all, the batter accounted for two outs with that at bat and not just one. Here are some facts concerning players Grounding Into Double Plays (GIDP).
Fact #1 - There are only two players that have grounded into more than 20 double plays in each of the last three seasons. They are Alex Rios and Billy Butler. Butler lead the world in 2010 with a whopping 32 GIDPs. Rios made the list for all three seasons, but just barely as his totals were 20, 21 and 21. If you adjusted Butler's batting average for the last three years to account for the extra outs, his average would go from .300 to .287. The Fan added 75 plate appearances to account for his extra outs on his 75 double plays over the last three seasons. Adjusting Rios the same way, his BA would go from .273 to .265.
Fact #2 - In addition to Butler and Rios, fourteen other players banged into more than 20 double plays twice in the past three seasons, they are: Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Derek Lee, Carlos Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Tejada (who had 61 combined in 2008, 2009!), Ivan Rodriguez, Kurt Suzuki, Jhonny Peralta, Jose Lopez, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Michael Cuddyer and Yunel Escobar. Some of those players hit for good averages and/or good power. But take a guy like Jose Lopez, who has batted in the mid-.250 range and add 45 GIDPs in those two years, and that's a lot of outs.
Fact #3 - Peralta gets a little special recognition. In the two years he combined to hit 46 double plays, he also struck out 260 times. So of the 872 at bats where he did not get a hit, Peralta struck out or grounded into a double play 306 times. That's a lot of stinky outs.
Fact #4 - In the last three seasons, two batters have combined for more than 70 GIDPs and ten more combined for 60 or more. They are: Miguel Tejada (77), Billy Butler (75), Yadier Molina (67), Derek Jeter (64), Yunel Escobar (63). Adrian Gonzalez (62), Albert Pujols (62), Vladimir Guerrero (62), Derek Lee (62), Alex Rios (62), Magglio Ordonez (60) and Ivan Rodriguez (60).
Fact #5 - Of the list for Fact #4, three are shortstops, two are catchers, four are first basemen, one is a DH and three are outfielders.
Fact #6 - In the last ten years, the top five leaders in GIDP are:
- 1. Tejada with 224 (22.4 a season!)
- 2 Albert Pujols with 203. Now that's a surprise.
- 3 Vladimir Guerrero with 194.
- 4. Paul Konerko with 181
- 5 Michael Young with 172
For those of you who are following along with this thought pattern, that's a total of 1948 outs among the five players or an average of 389.6 outs each over the ten years.
Fact # 7 - In the last five years, the top five in GIDP are: Tejada, Pujols, Young, Yadier Molina and Jeter. Of the five, Michael Young had the most strikeouts with 517. So over the last five years, Young has had over a whole season of at bats that were either strikeouts or GIDPs (622). If you want to look at it another way, the Rangers have paid Young one year in the last five where he either didn't put the ball in play or when he did, accounted for two outs with one swing. Ouch.
Fact #1 - There are only two players that have grounded into more than 20 double plays in each of the last three seasons. They are Alex Rios and Billy Butler. Butler lead the world in 2010 with a whopping 32 GIDPs. Rios made the list for all three seasons, but just barely as his totals were 20, 21 and 21. If you adjusted Butler's batting average for the last three years to account for the extra outs, his average would go from .300 to .287. The Fan added 75 plate appearances to account for his extra outs on his 75 double plays over the last three seasons. Adjusting Rios the same way, his BA would go from .273 to .265.
Fact #2 - In addition to Butler and Rios, fourteen other players banged into more than 20 double plays twice in the past three seasons, they are: Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Derek Lee, Carlos Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Tejada (who had 61 combined in 2008, 2009!), Ivan Rodriguez, Kurt Suzuki, Jhonny Peralta, Jose Lopez, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Michael Cuddyer and Yunel Escobar. Some of those players hit for good averages and/or good power. But take a guy like Jose Lopez, who has batted in the mid-.250 range and add 45 GIDPs in those two years, and that's a lot of outs.
Fact #3 - Peralta gets a little special recognition. In the two years he combined to hit 46 double plays, he also struck out 260 times. So of the 872 at bats where he did not get a hit, Peralta struck out or grounded into a double play 306 times. That's a lot of stinky outs.
Fact #4 - In the last three seasons, two batters have combined for more than 70 GIDPs and ten more combined for 60 or more. They are: Miguel Tejada (77), Billy Butler (75), Yadier Molina (67), Derek Jeter (64), Yunel Escobar (63). Adrian Gonzalez (62), Albert Pujols (62), Vladimir Guerrero (62), Derek Lee (62), Alex Rios (62), Magglio Ordonez (60) and Ivan Rodriguez (60).
Fact #5 - Of the list for Fact #4, three are shortstops, two are catchers, four are first basemen, one is a DH and three are outfielders.
Fact #6 - In the last ten years, the top five leaders in GIDP are:
- 1. Tejada with 224 (22.4 a season!)
- 2 Albert Pujols with 203. Now that's a surprise.
- 3 Vladimir Guerrero with 194.
- 4. Paul Konerko with 181
- 5 Michael Young with 172
For those of you who are following along with this thought pattern, that's a total of 1948 outs among the five players or an average of 389.6 outs each over the ten years.
Fact # 7 - In the last five years, the top five in GIDP are: Tejada, Pujols, Young, Yadier Molina and Jeter. Of the five, Michael Young had the most strikeouts with 517. So over the last five years, Young has had over a whole season of at bats that were either strikeouts or GIDPs (622). If you want to look at it another way, the Rangers have paid Young one year in the last five where he either didn't put the ball in play or when he did, accounted for two outs with one swing. Ouch.
Thursday, December 02, 2010
World Champ Giants Off to a Rough Post Season Start
To this point, the Giants' post season has consisted of losing their World Series hero, then another hero to the Dodgers and in return have signed a trio of baseball geezers. With all due respect to Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell for their contributions to the Giants' World Series season, the two can't be counted on to provide that much production again. Then, when Juan Uribe was lost to the Dodgers, the Giants replaced him with the aging Miquel Tejada. What's next? Are they going to trade for Ivan Rodriguez?
Aubrey Huff had a wonderful year in 2010 and with his $3 million salary was the steal of the year. His ..891 OPS made him one of the most productive hitters in the National League. But it's not hard to forget that his OPS the year before was .694. Huff did have a great year in 2008, but he was basically league average for the four years prior to that. There is simply no guarantee that he can produce like he did on a regular basis. And this year, after his Series swoon contract was signed, he won't be a bargain this year either.
The terms of Burrell's deal haven't been announced. Fortunately, it appears to be a one year deal. So there isn't much risk involved there. Burrell can be helpful as he takes a lot of pitches, gives you good on base numbers and he still has some pop in his bat when the ball accidentally hits there. But he's a drag in left field and he wears down when he plays every day. He's a role player at best and should get 300 at bats.
The Miguel Tejada deal was just depressing. Tejada has bounced around now for several years. Again, the deal is for only a year, and his salary will be earned just playing shortstop because of the positional bump. But the guy is long past his prime, is not close to being the player Uribe is and his fielding will affect guys like Matt Cain whose strong suit is pitching to contact.
Thus, the Giants are centering itself with a core of old guys that may or may not be helpful this year. Huff will likely hit. Burrell will likely struggle and Tejada will offer little. If it wasn't for Buster Posey, this story would seem to suffer from a lack of Geritol.
Look, we all get that the Giants live and die with their pitching. They throw the ball from the mound as good as anybody. But the team can't always count on only pitching to carry the day. The line up and the fielding has to have some dynamic talent, not a bunch of old guys. Cody Ross is a nice player and all, but when he's your second or third best position player, that's kind of scary.
Who knows. It's easy to speculate in November and to question a team's strategy. The proof will be in the season the Giants have while defending their title. This Fan just isn't getting it though.
Aubrey Huff had a wonderful year in 2010 and with his $3 million salary was the steal of the year. His ..891 OPS made him one of the most productive hitters in the National League. But it's not hard to forget that his OPS the year before was .694. Huff did have a great year in 2008, but he was basically league average for the four years prior to that. There is simply no guarantee that he can produce like he did on a regular basis. And this year, after his Series swoon contract was signed, he won't be a bargain this year either.
The terms of Burrell's deal haven't been announced. Fortunately, it appears to be a one year deal. So there isn't much risk involved there. Burrell can be helpful as he takes a lot of pitches, gives you good on base numbers and he still has some pop in his bat when the ball accidentally hits there. But he's a drag in left field and he wears down when he plays every day. He's a role player at best and should get 300 at bats.
The Miguel Tejada deal was just depressing. Tejada has bounced around now for several years. Again, the deal is for only a year, and his salary will be earned just playing shortstop because of the positional bump. But the guy is long past his prime, is not close to being the player Uribe is and his fielding will affect guys like Matt Cain whose strong suit is pitching to contact.
Thus, the Giants are centering itself with a core of old guys that may or may not be helpful this year. Huff will likely hit. Burrell will likely struggle and Tejada will offer little. If it wasn't for Buster Posey, this story would seem to suffer from a lack of Geritol.
Look, we all get that the Giants live and die with their pitching. They throw the ball from the mound as good as anybody. But the team can't always count on only pitching to carry the day. The line up and the fielding has to have some dynamic talent, not a bunch of old guys. Cody Ross is a nice player and all, but when he's your second or third best position player, that's kind of scary.
Who knows. It's easy to speculate in November and to question a team's strategy. The proof will be in the season the Giants have while defending their title. This Fan just isn't getting it though.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Whining Works
This Fan was whining yesterday that the trade deadline had been boring as all get out. Like a kid that gets the cookie because he's good at whining, today brought the Fan some cookies with one big deadline trade and a couple of other deals. Let's start with the biggie.
The Phillies always seem to get what they need when they need it. Last year it was Lee. Then in the off season, they flipped Lee for Halladay. Now they've added Roy Oswalt to an already talented team that has won a huge bunch of games of late. And those wily Phillies gave up very little to get Oswalt too. J. A. Happ had a great season last season. But his underlying statistics showed it to be a fluky kind of success. This year Happ has had some injury problems but he is the guy going to the Astros. The Astros also received two minor league outfielders that seem more speculative than superlative. The Astros then flipped one of those guys to Toronto for Brett Wallace, a thumper of a first baseman who isn't much of a fielder. At least the Astros can replace one thumping, can't field first basemen for another next year when Berkman walks.
The Astros are also giving the Phillies a huge pile of money which makes this deal all the sweeter for the Phillies. They get Roy Oswalt the rest of this year and next year for about half of what he is worth on the open market due to the Astros ante.
The only concern this writer has about this deal is Oswalt's history of back ailments. He isn't exactly young and though he has proved he can still pitch, the Phillies better keep their fingers crossed. But the Fan told you a month ago to not count the Phillies out and they are closing on the Braves rather quickly.
The other two moves weren't nearly as glamorous as the Oswalt deal. The Orioles sent perjury specialist, Miguel Tejada, to the Padres for a hard-throwing semi-prospect. Tejada isn't anywhere near the player he was, but for the offense-stressed Padres, he'll help them. Look for Tejada to get a second wind in San Diego.
The other deal helps the Rangers since they acquired Jorge Cantu from the Marlins for two minor league pitchers. Those two prospects, Evan Reed and Omar Poveda, were the two best prospects traded this week and could develop into very good pitchers for the Marlins. Considering that Cantu is a free agent at the end of the season and is no more than a rental, the Rangers have exposed themselves as being all in to win this year. Cantu is not having a good year at the plate and is down in all of his numbers compared to his career. But if he bounces back for the Rangers to his career levels, he could help them, especially at first and a fill in for Kinsler at second until the second baseman returns. Cantu will never wow you, but he is only 28 and is a decent hitter.
Thursday was a lot more fun than the rest of the week. Will anything else happen to surprise us tomorrow?
The Phillies always seem to get what they need when they need it. Last year it was Lee. Then in the off season, they flipped Lee for Halladay. Now they've added Roy Oswalt to an already talented team that has won a huge bunch of games of late. And those wily Phillies gave up very little to get Oswalt too. J. A. Happ had a great season last season. But his underlying statistics showed it to be a fluky kind of success. This year Happ has had some injury problems but he is the guy going to the Astros. The Astros also received two minor league outfielders that seem more speculative than superlative. The Astros then flipped one of those guys to Toronto for Brett Wallace, a thumper of a first baseman who isn't much of a fielder. At least the Astros can replace one thumping, can't field first basemen for another next year when Berkman walks.
The Astros are also giving the Phillies a huge pile of money which makes this deal all the sweeter for the Phillies. They get Roy Oswalt the rest of this year and next year for about half of what he is worth on the open market due to the Astros ante.
The only concern this writer has about this deal is Oswalt's history of back ailments. He isn't exactly young and though he has proved he can still pitch, the Phillies better keep their fingers crossed. But the Fan told you a month ago to not count the Phillies out and they are closing on the Braves rather quickly.
The other two moves weren't nearly as glamorous as the Oswalt deal. The Orioles sent perjury specialist, Miguel Tejada, to the Padres for a hard-throwing semi-prospect. Tejada isn't anywhere near the player he was, but for the offense-stressed Padres, he'll help them. Look for Tejada to get a second wind in San Diego.
The other deal helps the Rangers since they acquired Jorge Cantu from the Marlins for two minor league pitchers. Those two prospects, Evan Reed and Omar Poveda, were the two best prospects traded this week and could develop into very good pitchers for the Marlins. Considering that Cantu is a free agent at the end of the season and is no more than a rental, the Rangers have exposed themselves as being all in to win this year. Cantu is not having a good year at the plate and is down in all of his numbers compared to his career. But if he bounces back for the Rangers to his career levels, he could help them, especially at first and a fill in for Kinsler at second until the second baseman returns. Cantu will never wow you, but he is only 28 and is a decent hitter.
Thursday was a lot more fun than the rest of the week. Will anything else happen to surprise us tomorrow?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)