And the Jermaine Dye Award Goes To...

Trucking Day has come and gone for baseball teams and pitchers and catchers started reporting for duty and will continue to increase in the coming days. Spring Training engines are revving up in Florida and Arizona as teams try to ready themselves for the upcoming 2012 baseball season. How exciting is that!? But it's not so exciting for some fairly well known free agents that have yet to find jobs for the upcoming season. To say these players might be getting a bit antsy is an understatement. Who will be this year's Jermaine Dye?

Why Jermaine Dye? Dye was a two-time All Star who also won a Silver Slugger Award and twice made the top 20 in MVP Voting. Dye made over $74 million during his career. But after 2009, Dye became a free agent and his phone never rang. Well, it might have a few times, but there was never a connection on what Dye was willing to make and what a team was willing to offer. His career was over just like that one year after a fifteenth place finish in MVP voting in 2008.

Dye was a casualty of baseball's new valuation analysis. Armed with all kinds of new data, teams know what players are worth and rarely allow themselves to pay above that valuation. No team saw Dye as a good option. Dye was used to making $11 million a year and never heard the new reality coming until it whacked him in the forehead.

So at least in this mind, Dye is a symbol of sorts--enough so that a new award is named after him: The Jermaine Dye Award, given to a player each year that ran headlong into the slammed door of the evaluation machine. Who are this year's candidates? Well, there is Roy Oswalt. Oswalt is one of the better pitchers of his generation. But thus far, Oswalt has limited the scope of teams he will deal with and unfortunately, those limited amount of teams haven't bit the bullet on Oswalt's price tag. But Oswalt will likely get a deal. He is still too good a pitcher in a market that covets such things. The only question is how much money he'll get.

So who else is there? Pat Burrell retired, so we can't count him. How about Johnny Damon? Hmm...that's an interesting call. His status might depend on if the Yankees can trade A.J. Burnett. But there are whispers that his desire to reach 3,000 hits have compromised his value at the plate as his quest makes him less patient. Damon is a strong contender. It's been rumored that he wants $5 million and most teams won't want to pay him that kind of money.

How about J.D. Drew? Reports are that Drew is going to retire. But no official word has come forth. In fact, no words have been written about Drew at all, which is kind of fitting as he's always been the silent type. Until Drew's announcement comes, he's a contender.

Vladimir Guerrero might be the winner of the award. Vlad is one of the best players of his generation. But his bad wheels caught up to his free-swinging ways in 2011 and his value has gone way down. It's hard to imagine a player of his magnitude settling for a cheap little deal somewhere.

Derrek Lee? Another strong candidate. Lee had a strong finish with the Pirates but that was after a sluggish stint with the Orioles. Lee has made over $90 million in his career including $7 million last year. Count on your fingers the number of teams that need a first baseman. Not many, right? He's worth a flyer as a DH, but not for any kind of significant money. Would Lee accept that? 

Ivan Rodriguez might not get an offer, which is sad. It's hard to think of baseball without him. But he's been fading for so long that he doesn't quite fit our criteria here. The same can be said for Edgar Renteria. The rest of the unsigned free agents are fringy at best unless you want to include Jason Kendall. Uh. No. Skip that. 

It appears that our candidates are Guerrero, Damon, Lee and Oswalt. Of the four, Vlad seems to be the most vulnerable. And that's a shame. He was amazing in his prime.

Oswalt Could Earn $10 Million in His Sleep

Americans are so fickle when it comes to labor. The citizens here talk about labor getting its due and fairness and all that. But as soon as the garbage trucks stop running, those same folks want the mayor to arrest all the waste management people. The same goes for baseball players. Most Americans would agree that baseball before the Marvin Miller days was unfair to players. Now, when those negotiated rights have been earned and a free agent tries to take advantage of those rights, he is scorned. The negative press that Roy Oswalt is receiving these days is a case in point.

Take this guy's point of view for example. According to this writer in question, Oswalt has a "fat head." Well, gosh. Oswalt must be a villain then. Excuse him for pitching for eleven years and earning the right to pick and choose where he will play and how much he wants to get paid. At least this writer in question admits that Roy Oswalt is worth the $10 million he is supposedly asking, "if he is healthy." The reality is that Roy Oswalt is worth $10 million even if he isn't healthy. Yeah, Oswalt only pitched 139 innings last season. But even so, those innings were worth $11.1 million.

The reality also is that whatever team ends up wanting to sign him will have a full opportunity to back off of any deal if Oswalt can't pass a physical. And don't worry. Nobody is going to plunk down that many clams without having their doctors go over Oswalt's back thoroughly. 

So what makes Oswalt a villain? He wants to pitch not too far from where his family lives. Do you blame him? For six months, a baseball player spends half of his time away from home. That's a lot of time away from those you love, is it not? Oswalt would like to pitch for a contender. Wouldn't you? Baseball players are competitors. They want to compete at the highest level. Oswalt spent a lot of years in Houston playing for the Astros that weren't a heck of a lot of fun. Losing isn't fun no matter how much money you make.

Perhaps the biggest reason to call Oswalt a villain or a fat head is that he wants to be paid what he is worth. Who can blame him? The guy has won 159 games with a career FIP of 3.35. His career has been worth $170 million and he's made $91 million. Well, yeah, that's a lot of money and nobody is pitying him nor should be. But it's not like Oswalt is asking for a multi-year contract which he would be worth oodles of money. He's reportingly seeking a one year deal. No doubt part of that strategy is to rebuild some value for the next go round. 

One of Oswalt's closest comps at his age is Mike Mussina. Mussina won 88 games after reaching the age of 34, Oswalt's 2012 age. When you know how to pitch, you know how to pitch, plain and simple. The bottom line here is that even if Oswalt can only give his new club 139 more innings, he'll be worth what he's asking. He's earned the right to make the deal that pays him what he's worth and play where he wants to play. Find another mule to kick already.

Stud Pitchers On Parade

On a night when the Reds, Yankees and Bay Rays needed a win to seal their playoff spots and the Braves needed a win to keep them in charge of the wild card spot, stud pitchers stepped up and carried the day. But they weren't alone. Seattle got another ace performance from their Cy Young candidate, the Phillies got an excellent tune up outing from their trade deadline stud in a game the Phillies eventually lost because a veteran pitcher for the Nationals had a sensational start after a disappointing season and two young relievers were lights out after his night was done. Let's recap.

The Reds have been dancing around that clinching game for several days now. They simply needed to get the job done so they can start figuring out their playoff match ups. But until they slammed the door on the Cardinals, they had to keep throwing their A-game out there. Edinson Voquez is peaking at just the right time. The erstwhile ace has had a tough year returning from a long-term injury. He still had the power stuff of the past, but his command was all over the place. But he's had four good games in a row now and his efforts on Tuesday night helped his team to its clinching win.

Volquez matched the tough Wandy Rodriguez for six innings. Both pitchers only gave up two runs before departing for pinch hitters. Volquez struck out eight and more importantly, only walked one. The game became a bullpen battle after that and the Reds' bullpen was one run better than Houston's. First, the Amazing Arthur Rhodes did his thing and pitched a scoreless inning. Then Rhodes' young student, Nick Masset threw a perfect eight and then the Reds turned to their secret weapon. Aroldis Chapman pitched the ninth and struck out two to give the Reds' offense a chance to win the game.

Jay Bruce won the game in walk off fashion with a homer in the ninth (more on him in the next post). It was a game the Reds needed to set their house in order and Voquez, Rhodes, Masset and Chapman made it happen. Congratulations Reds on your first division title in many years.

The Yankees seemed to be playing rope-a-dope for the previous three weeks and things got a bit surreal after A. J. Burnett again went up in flames on Monday night. In stepped Sabathia like the ace he is supposed to be and pitched eight and a third innings of three-hit, one-run ball against the mighty offense of the Toronto Blue Jays in their home ballpark. Sabathia's performance allowed the Yankee hitters to relax, take control of the game and win it easily. It also allowed Mariano Rivera to get some work in during the ninth as he came in to get the final two outs in a non-save situation. The Yankees can't relax because they are still in a dogfight for the division title and the best record in the AL is at stake. But Sabathia at least put the playoff berth to bed in a performance that the Yankees really needed to have.

David Price did the same thing for the Bay Rays. Price pitched eight scoreless innings on six hits and no walks. Price struck out eight and then Soria came in and pitched a perfect ninth, striking out two more. If it wasn't for King Felix, Price would have an excellent argument for Cy Young and won his 19th game. The win clinched a playoff spot for the Bay Rays and kept them ahead of the Yankees in the AL East. The Bay Rays only had nine base runners the entire game but scored five of them in a clutch offensive performance.

The two wins by the Bay Rays and Yankees means that the Red Sox hopes are finally dashed. You have to have much respect for the Red Sox as they battled everything under the sun and still stayed relevant right up until the last week of the season. All due credit must go to Terry Francona and David Ortiz for keeping that team from hanging their heads. They kept plugging along and came up short.

Meanwhile, Bobby Cox, manager of the Atlanta Braves, bit the bullet and all of his best starters are pitching on three days rest this week. He has no choice if his team is to get into the promised land. Tim Hudson, who is the Braves ace in heart (if not in stuff, that goes to Hanson) took the ball and gave Cox six gutty innings. They weren't spectacular innings as he allowed eleven base runners, but somehow managed to allow only one of them to score. Gaby Sanchez stranded six Marlins all by himself, Corbin Maybin got himself picked off by Hudson and Bonifacio, who shouldn't be playing, hit into a crucial double play.

The Braves' bullpen again got the job done. The amazing Billy Wagner closed the door with 36th save by striking out the side in the ninth. Wagner now has a 1.34 ERA. This may be the finest season of his stellar career and maybe he'll reconsider his retirement announcement.

The Phillies are living the high life these days as they are assured the top spot in the NL playoff pole. But they have to play out the rest of the season. Roy Oswalt got a tune up for the playoffs and pitched his obligatory five innings. He only gave up one run and was as sharp as he's been since his second start for the Phillies. On the other side, Jason Marquis, who has had nothing short of a disastrous first season with the Nationals due to injury and ineffectiveness, was juat as good for the Nationals and kept the mighty Phillies (who played most of their regulars) to just one run. He handed the ball off to young Tyler Clippard, who pitched two scoreless innings, striking out two. Drew Storen, the other Nationals phenom, pitched a perfect inning to get the win when Donkey Dunn hit his 38th homer of the season in walk off fashion off of the ancient LOOGY, Tim Byrdak.

Down in Texas, Felix Hernandez might just have sealed his Cy Young Award with another dominating performance. He pitched eight innings, allowing only seven base runners while striking out five. He only gave up one run and lowered his ERA to 2.27. With Price hitting all cylinders and Sabathia pitching the Yankees into the post season, it was a performance that Hernandez really needed to put him over the top. And over the top he should be. King Felix has to be the league's Cy Young. Forget his 13-12 record. He's just been a head above anybody else in the American League.

How the Phillies Can Win the World Series

Those amazing Phillies have done it again. For like the 100th year in a row, it didn't appear that they were going to make it to the post season. And once again, the Phillies hung around and hung around and inched their way to the top. This Fan knew it was coming though. In fact a post was devoted to them about a month and a half ago stating that they were far from dead and look out in September. And they have four really good reasons they have risen to the top once again. Those reasons? Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt and Blanton.

Baseball-reference.com currently has Halladay as the number one pitcher in the National League in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). They list Oswalt and number 8 and Hamels at number 9. Fangraphs rates Halladay number one, Oswalt at 9 and Hamels at 14.

Halladay's ERA was 2.19 in the first half and 3.01 in the second half. So you might be thinking that he's slipped a little bit. But those numbers are a bit misleading. In the second half, Halladay has walked nine batters in twelve starts and his K/BB ratio in the second half is 9.11 to 1. Holy smokes!

Cole Hamels has an ERA in the second half of 1.98. Incredibly, he's only won four of those twelve starts despite striking out 10.2 batters per nine innings and having a K/BB ratio of 5.83.

Roy Oswalt has gone 7-1 since joining the Phillies with a 1.94 ERA and a WHIP of 0.947. And those numbers wouldn't even be that high if it wasn't for his first start which accounted for his lone loss when he was asked to pitch the same day he joined the team.

Joe Blanton is 4-1 in the second half with a 3.68 ERA. His K/BB ration in the second half is a healthy 3.55. Blanton has been unlucky in both halves of the season with a BABIP of .336 in the second half after it was .322 in the first half. That's a pretty long streak of bad luck.

So those are your four pitchers for the playoffs. Unlike last year when you only needed three starters most of the post season, there are less days off this year (Thanks, Bud), so teams will need four starters. Let's hypothetically look at match ups for every series the Phillies could play.

If they play the Giants:

Game One: Halladay versus Lincecum. Toss up. Though the Fan would rather have Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Cain. Hamels takes that one.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Sanchez. Oswalt easily. Sanchez walks too many batters and needs to leave too many games too early.
Game Four: Blanton versus Zito. Advantage Blanton.

If they play the Reds:

Game One: Halladay versus Arroyo. Halladay is better.
Game Two: Hamels versus Cueto. It's got to be Hamels.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Homer Bailey. Oh please.
Game Four: Blanton versus Travis Wood. Slight edge to Blanton.

If they play the Padres:

Game One: Halladay versus Latos: Latos faded down the stretch. Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Garland: Hamels.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Richard: Oswalt.
Game Four: Blanton versus Luebke? Who? Blanton no matter who.

If they play the Rockies:

Game One: Hallday versus Jiminez: A draw or slight edge to Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Hammels (which is kind of fun): Hamels
Game Three: Oswalt versus Chacin? Who? Oswalt
Game Four: Blanton versus De La Rosa: Probably a draw in fairness.

If they play Atlanta:

Game One: Halladay versus Hudson: Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Hanson: Hamels.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Lowe: Oswalt.
Game Four: Blanton versus Who? Miles? Blanton

If they play the Yankees:

Game One: Halladay versus Sabathia: A draw.
Game Two: Hamels versus Pettitte: A draw
Game Three: Oswalt versus Barnett: Oh please.
Game Four: Blanton versus Hughes: Hughes in Philly or Blanton in New York. A draw?

If they play the Rays:

Game one: Halladay versus Price: A draw or slight Halladay edge.
Game Two: Hamels versus Garza: Hamels
Game Three: Oswalt versus Shields: Oswalt.
Game Four: Blanton versus Wade Davis: A draw.

If they play the Twins:

Game One: Halladay versus Liriano: Slight edge to Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Pavano: Hamels.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Slowey: Oswalt.
Game Four: Blanton versus Anybody Else: Blanton

If they play the Rangers:

Game One Halladay versus Lee: Lee.
Game Two: Hamels versus Wilson. A draw.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Hunter: A draw
Game Four: Blanton versus Lewis: Blanton

From this perch, the Phillies can out rotation anybody in the National League. They can out pitch the Rays. They have a slight edge over the Yankees. They out pitch the Twins. The Rangers might be their worst match up. Of course, all of those series would be more than just the rotations. You have to look at offenses and defenses and the bullpens, but more often than not, post season series hinge on the rotations. From where the Fan is sitting, the Phillies have never been in better position to win the World Series. And that is scary considering they've been in the last two and won one of them already.

Whining Works

This Fan was whining yesterday that the trade deadline had been boring as all get out. Like a kid that gets the cookie because he's good at whining, today brought the Fan some cookies with one big deadline trade and a couple of other deals. Let's start with the biggie.

The Phillies always seem to get what they need when they need it. Last year it was Lee. Then in the off season, they flipped Lee for Halladay. Now they've added Roy Oswalt to an already talented team that has won a huge bunch of games of late. And those wily Phillies gave up very little to get Oswalt too. J. A. Happ had a great season last season. But his underlying statistics showed it to be a fluky kind of success. This year Happ has had some injury problems but he is the guy going to the Astros. The Astros also received two minor league outfielders that seem more speculative than superlative. The Astros then flipped one of those guys to Toronto for Brett Wallace, a thumper of a first baseman who isn't much of a fielder. At least the Astros can replace one thumping, can't field first basemen for another next year when Berkman walks.

The Astros are also giving the Phillies a huge pile of money which makes this deal all the sweeter for the Phillies. They get Roy Oswalt the rest of this year and next year for about half of what he is worth on the open market due to the Astros ante.

The only concern this writer has about this deal is Oswalt's history of back ailments. He isn't exactly young and though he has proved he can still pitch, the Phillies better keep their fingers crossed. But the Fan told you a month ago to not count the Phillies out and they are closing on the Braves rather quickly.

The other two moves weren't nearly as glamorous as the Oswalt deal. The Orioles sent perjury specialist, Miguel Tejada, to the Padres for a hard-throwing semi-prospect. Tejada isn't anywhere near the player he was, but for the offense-stressed Padres, he'll help them. Look for Tejada to get a second wind in San Diego.

The other deal helps the Rangers since they acquired Jorge Cantu from the Marlins for two minor league pitchers. Those two prospects, Evan Reed and Omar Poveda, were the two best prospects traded this week and could develop into very good pitchers for the Marlins. Considering that Cantu is a free agent at the end of the season and is no more than a rental, the Rangers have exposed themselves as being all in to win this year. Cantu is not having a good year at the plate and is down in all of his numbers compared to his career. But if he bounces back for the Rangers to his career levels, he could help them, especially at first and a fill in for Kinsler at second until the second baseman returns. Cantu will never wow you, but he is only 28 and is a decent hitter.

Thursday was a lot more fun than the rest of the week. Will anything else happen to surprise us tomorrow?