MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: October 21, 2014

Hey! Remember baseball? They play it again tonight after what seems like forever. And not only is it baseball, it is one of the most unlikely World Series encounters in memory. Two teams that started out as wild card teams battle it out for the title. It's the San Francisco Giants at the Kansas City Royals for Game One.

As my 11-14 record indicates for the post season, this has been a wacky ride to get to this point. Home field advantage has meant nothing. Will it matter what happened at the All Star Game back in July? The way the rest of this post season has played, I doubt it. That might mess the Royals up since they won't be the underdogs here.

My initial call is the Giants in six. They will complete their every other year trifecta.  But let's take it a game at a time starting tonight:

The Pick:

The Giants over the Royals: As mentioned, home field advantage has meant nothing in this post season. I think only one opening game of a series thus far was won by the home team. Madison Bumgarner has been amazing. James Shields has been pretty darned good himself. But if you go by talent alone, you have to go with Bumgarner. The Royals revolve around running the bases and playing small ball. But you have to get on base in order for that to happen. A key match-up will be MadBum against Billy Butler. It will be interesting.

The last time we played: 1-0, Post Season: 11-14, Season: 1376-1104

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: October 14, 2014

Yesterday was a washout for Major League Baseball as the one playoff game had to be cancelled due to weather. That means we get two games today. The NLCS will start at four o'clock and the ALCS at eight. Despite being rained out, the Royals and Orioles will still feature the same pitching match-up as scheduled yesterday. While in the NLCS, the Cardinals must make do without their fiery leader, Yadier Molina. Come on down, A.J. Pierzynski.

The picks:

• The Cardinals over the Giants: Despite the absence of Molina, I still think the Cardinals win this game IF John Lackey comes up big. Tim Hudson goes for the Giants and he was brilliant in his one 2014 post season start thus far. But that comes after a sub par season and it is hard to know which one will show up tonight. The same could be said for Lackey. When Lackey is on, he is wicked. If he is not, balls fly all over the ballpark. It will be interesting.

• The Orioles over the Royals: I'm still going with the same picks as yesterday since the pitching line is supposed to remain the same. I understand why the Royals would pitch Jeremy Guthrie as he deserves the start. He has been with the Royals for two and a half years and always battles hard for them. But on the other hand, the Orioles know him as he pitched for them not long ago and Guthrie is a homer waiting to happen. Wei-Yin Chen is the wild card in all this. Left-handed pitching does not bother the Royals very much. A key match-up for Chen will be Billy Butler who absolutely rakes lefty pitching.

Post Season: 8-12, Season: 1373-1102

Swapping Billy Butler with Kendrys Morales does not make sense

A recent blurb from MLBTradeRumors.com quotes a Jim Duquette tweet that the Royals are interested in Kendrys Morales. Morales is comparable to Billy Butler and, according to the blurb, allow the Royals to trade Butler for pitching. Does anyone besides me think this is nonsense? Yes, Morales is comparable to Butler as we shall see. But he would cost the Royals a draft pick and is three years older than Butler. Frankly, I do not get all the Billy Butler speculation we have heard all winter.

First the comparables:

• Butler: .345 wOBA / .357 lifetime, 7.2 runs on offense, -16.1 runs defense, -5.2 base running, 1.4 fWAR
• Morales: .342 wOBA / .349 lifetime, 6.4 runs on offense, -16.6 runs defense, -5.5 base running, 1.2 fWAR.

Those are pretty similar. Morales has more power but Butler has a higher walk rate and on-base percentage. Neither can run and neither should bother picking up a glove. Either would be the team's DH. Similar. But there are also differences.

Butler has missed a total of eleven games in the last five seasons. Morales' 156 game total in 2013 was a high after his truly unfortunate leg injury on that famous home run celebration. But there is a difference in health here. There is also a difference in total career offensive performance.

As seen above, Butler's career wOBA is higher. 2013 was a bit of a down year for Butler that can be recovered. Here is an accumulative age WAR Graph via Fangraphs.com of the two players:

Duquette mentions that Butler could be traded for pitching. That is easier said than done. Sure, many teams might be interested in Butler as a proven and durable hitter. But again, he is not a fielder. What would the Royals get in return? Secondly, do the Royals need more pitching? And what happens if you cannot get a trade done? Then you have two similar players sitting around.

According to MLB Depth Charts, the Royals current rotation projects to James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Vargas, Wade Davis and Danny Duffy. To me, that rotation is a little shaky after Shields. But it is a big ballpark and that helps. My rotation plans would never include Wade Davis. Davis should be a bullpen piece only to add to what is already a very talented and deep bullpen.

But the Royals have options here. Yordano Ventura looks ready for prime time and would surely be better than Davis. Kyle Zimmer could start the year in Triple-A and then come up mid-season. He looks like a stud to me. 

Besides, if you are willing to give up a draft pick for Morales, why would you not be willing to do the same thing for the free agent options out there like Ubaldo Jimenez?

Billy Butler is a fan favorite in Kansas City, is signed for the next two years for just about what he is worth and does not cost a draft pick to keep. His performance should bounce back a bit from 2013 and he should have two or three more productive seasons. I do not see Kendrys Morales as an upgrade, especially if he costs a draft pick. If the team was willing to sacrifice a draft pick for a free agent, it should be on a pitcher.

Two Outs For the Price of One

The double play has been called the pitcher's best friend and for good reason. It's a pretty good deal when you can get two outs for the price of one pitch. A while back, this site featured a post stating that pitchers should have an adjusted Walks plus Hits Per Innings Pitched (WHIP) that takes ground balls double plays into account. Pitchers like Mark Buehrle give up a lot of hits which leads to a high WHIP. But if he induces double play grounders in the course of a season, shouldn't there be an adjustment to WHIP to reflect that? The converse is also true. A batter should have his batting average adjusted for the times he grounds into a double play. After all, the batter accounted for two outs with that at bat and not just one. Here are some facts concerning players Grounding Into Double Plays (GIDP).

Fact #1 - There are only two players that have grounded into more than 20 double plays in each of the last three seasons. They are Alex Rios and Billy Butler. Butler lead the world in 2010 with a whopping 32 GIDPs. Rios made the list for all three seasons, but just barely as his totals were 20, 21 and 21. If you adjusted Butler's batting average for the last three years to account for the extra outs, his average would go from .300 to .287. The Fan added 75 plate appearances to account for his extra outs on his 75 double plays over the last three seasons. Adjusting Rios the same way, his BA would go from .273 to .265.

Fact #2 - In addition to Butler and Rios, fourteen other players banged into more than 20 double plays twice in the past three seasons, they are: Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Derek Lee, Carlos Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Tejada (who had 61 combined in 2008, 2009!), Ivan Rodriguez, Kurt Suzuki, Jhonny Peralta, Jose Lopez, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Michael Cuddyer and Yunel Escobar. Some of those players hit for good averages and/or good power. But take a guy like Jose Lopez, who has batted in the mid-.250 range and add 45 GIDPs in those two years, and that's a lot of outs.

Fact #3 - Peralta gets a little special recognition. In the two years he combined to hit 46 double plays, he also struck out 260 times. So of the 872 at bats where he did not get a hit, Peralta struck out or grounded into a double play 306 times. That's a lot of stinky outs.

Fact #4 - In the last three seasons, two batters have combined for more than 70 GIDPs and ten more combined for 60 or more. They are: Miguel Tejada (77), Billy Butler (75), Yadier Molina (67), Derek Jeter (64), Yunel Escobar (63). Adrian Gonzalez (62), Albert Pujols (62), Vladimir Guerrero (62), Derek Lee (62), Alex  Rios (62), Magglio Ordonez (60) and Ivan Rodriguez (60).

Fact #5 - Of the list for Fact #4, three are shortstops, two are catchers, four are first basemen, one is a DH and three are outfielders.

Fact #6 - In the last ten years, the top five leaders in GIDP are:
- 1. Tejada with 224 (22.4 a season!)
- 2 Albert Pujols with 203. Now that's a surprise.
- 3 Vladimir Guerrero with 194.
- 4. Paul Konerko with 181
- 5  Michael Young with 172

For those of you who are following along with this thought pattern, that's a total of 1948 outs among the five players or an average of 389.6 outs each over the ten years.

Fact # 7 - In the last five years, the top five in GIDP are: Tejada, Pujols, Young, Yadier Molina and Jeter. Of the five, Michael Young had the most strikeouts with 517. So over the last five years, Young has had over a whole season of at bats that were either strikeouts or GIDPs (622). If you want to look at it another way, the Rangers have paid Young one year in the last five where he either didn't put the ball in play or when he did, accounted for two outs with one swing. Ouch.

Royals Doing Well Under Yost

Has anyone noticed that the Royals are over .500 since Ned Yost took over as manager? Yup, that's right, the Royals are 27-23 under Yost since he took over the club and have won ten of their last thirteen. Probably just as few have noticed that the Royals actually lead the American League in batting average this season. Who would have predicted that?

Whether it is a coincidence or Yost's influence, Zack Greinke is back to his old self the last couple of starts, Bruce Chen is 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA and the much maligned pitching staff has really held its own in the last fifteen games. In those fifteen games, the Royals have held their opponent to four runs or fewer twelve times. The pitching staff still has stats that put them near the bottom in the league in most categories, but there is no denying they are doing much better right now.

Another thing that Yost has done is given specific and defined roles to members in the bullpen and the trio of Tejada, Farnsworth and Soria have responded and get the job done more often than not. Victor Marte has also come into the bullpen and is doing a nice job. The bullpen getting squared away has allowed the starters to settle down and just pitch their games without having to worry about what happens after their six or seven innings are over.

The offense has been carried by two stars in Billy Butler and David DeJesus, both of whom have over one hundred hits at the half way point in the season. They also have a 140 and 136 OPS+ respectively. The nice thing about those two hitters is that they do not strike out much and walk almost as much as they strikeout. In fact the whole team doesn't strike out that often except for Jose Guillen, who despite his 72 strikeouts is having a fine season with 14 homers and 52 runs batted in.

The rest of the line up is weak. Betancourt at shortstop is really bad with a 77 OPS+ which mirrors his .285 OBP. That may have been one of the worst trades in history. Jason Kendall joins Betancourt with a 79 OPS+ but at least Kendall is posting his best OBP in many recent seasons but still with absolutely no pop (.313 SLG). And the over all team defense is still poor.

But still, the team is responding much better to Yost than they did to Trey Hillman and it is again fun to watch Royals' baseball.