MLB Game Picks - Monday: September 1, 2014

The last day of August was not looking very good after five games. With losses by the Yankees, the Phillies and the Rays, the picks were sitting at 1-4. But then I ran the table and finished at 10-4. To be honest, if the game had been allowed to finish (suspended), I would have been wrong to finish at 10-5, but we won't know the final outcome until September 22 when the game is completed. That's what you get putting on a night game on a Sunday, a holiday weekend Sunday to boot.

I don't think I've ever had a day when the picks went from 1-4 to 10-4. That's strange. My final record for August was a little over 56% which is close to my usual. It's funny that after all the years I've been doing this, I don't really improve. I am not an odds maker and do not do computer analysis to make these picks. Why do I do this every day anyway? I really have no idea anymore. It's like an obsession or something. Or it's like riding a horse I am used to and it's just easy to ride the same one every day.

Happy Labor Day! There are twelve games on the schedule and two of them are at night. Shame on them for having night games on a holiday or no games at all!  Today's picks:

• The Rays over the Red Sox: This series has gone back and forth, so who knows. I can't remember the last time Rubby De La Rosa pitched a good game. And The Emoticon, Drew Smyly, has pitched very well for the Rays.
• The Marlins over the Mets: This is a very tough call. Zack Wheeler has been great since the third month of the season. But Henderson Alvarez at home is pretty unbeatable. I'll go with Miami.
• The Braves over the Phillies: I hate to pick against Cole Hamels, but again, the home team is a better pick with Julio Teheran overpowering the older Phillies batters.
• The Orioles over the Twins: Phil Hughes has had a great season. There is no disputing the fact. But I do not like his match-up against the Orioles and feel like he will give up two or three homers. He won't walk anyone. Kevin Gausman has been terrific too and that makes the Twins' task harder.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Man, all the home team picks. Scary. Despite all the hyperventilating by Cardinal fans and sportswriters, here the Cards are tied for the division lead. Lance Lynn has been mostly really good and Gerrit Cole is to be feared as well.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: Yay! A road team pick! Jacob Turner is a work in progress for the Cubs and I believe they will be ultimately successful on putting him back on the right road. But for now, he remains awful messy. Jimmy Nelson hasn't won in his last four starts, so that makes the pick more difficult.
• The Tigers over the Indians: This is a really tough call. David Price only won one of his five starts for the Tigers in August. But his peripherals are still outstanding with them. A little bad luck has been involved. Corey Kluber has been so good all season, but his control has been more of a problem his last three starts. This could go either way.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: I don't know if the A's manager calling his team pathetic will help, but anyway, Jason Hammel over Chris Young.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: I like Tyson Ross and his season has been a lot better than his .500 record. He should beat the D-backs who feature Trevor Cahill on the mound today.
• The Giants over the Rockies: MLB.com does not have the pitching match-ups and just lists TBO. Yahoo.com is reporting that it will be Tim Hudson versus Franklin Morales. Morales has pitched well, but never more than five innings. Hudson has struggled a bit on the road and even more so in day games. But the Giants are very hot right now.
• The Nationals over the Dodgers: I did take a quick peek at the odds on this one and the odds makers are favoring the Dodgers big time. But I don't agree, which is why I guess I'm not famous. Gio Gonzalez presents problems for the Dodgers' lineup and the Nats bats can get to Roberto Hernandez.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Royals over the Rangers: The Royals had a tough weekend against Cleveland but now face an easier team, at least on paper. I can't make fun of Colby Lewis anymore because he has pitched well. The pick rests completely on what kind of game Yordano Ventura has.

Yesterday: 10-4, August final: 237-185, Games of the Day: 84-59 (+1), Season: 1130-934

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: August 16, 2014

Even though yesterday finished over .500 (barely), it was a disappointment after the previous three days. In those previous three days, the picks had gone 29-10 including 9-1 on Thursday. That kind of success made me happy. Yesterday did not.

And you know what? It was those danged extra-inning games that continue to drive me crazy. There were three of them yesterday and all three went against the pick. That's stupid and yet so typical. I should have kept track of this and maybe next year (God willing) I will.

Saturday's picks:

• The Giants over the Phillies: This was one of the extra-inning games and the real problem with this pick is that the Phillies are back to facing a right-handed pitcher in Tim Hudson. They are much better in those situations. But the Giants at home with Kyle Kendrick going for the Phillies is too attractive not to take.
• The Rays over the Yankees: One team is going, "Yay! We're at .500!" While the other one is saying, "Oh no! We are almost back at .500!" Two teams going in opposite directions with the Yankees sinking fast should produce another Rays win. The Emoticon, Drew Smyly, will now become a great pitcher in Tampa while Shane Greene will be treated somewhat rudely at the Trop.
• The Indians over the Orioles: There are so many competing forces going on here. The Orioles have been indestructible the last month while the Indians have one of the best home records in baseball. Carlos Carrasco was great his last time out but only pitched five innings. Ubaldo Jimenez has been awful all year but goes back to Cleveland where he had success. There is too much going on here!
• The Nationals over the Pirates: This is a tale of two lefties. Gio Gonzalez has lost his last four starts and five of his last six (the other was a no-decision). He is due for a win, but I worry about his health. Jeff Locke seems to pitch and never get decisions. He is only 4-3 after thirteen starts. Locke has been prone to the long ball this year and the Nats might hit a couple.
• The Mariners over the Tigers: This is a great pitching match-up and again, either ace can win depending on how their day goes. Felix Hernandez is 9-2 lifetime against the Tigers and 5-1 lifetime at Comerica. That's hard to ignore. So I give him the edge over David Price.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: This pick was wrong yesterday but I am going back to it because Henderson Alvarez is pretty hard to beat at home. Plus, Wade Miley might run into Giancarlos Stanton's bat once or twice.
• The Mets over the Cubs: I am uncomfortable looking over the picks so far that I have so many home teams winning. I do take the location of the game into account, but mostly I go with match-ups and let the pick fall where it is. So, I'll keep going. Jon Niese makes me much more confident than Dan Straily. Simple.
• The Red Sox over the Astros: The Astros win yesterday (yes, in extra innings) surprised me. And it would surprise me if they win again today. While Rubby De La Rosa is inconsistent, at least he is capable of wow. I can't say that with Brad Peacock.
• The Royals over the Twins: Phil Hughes has won twelve games. He has walked only fifteen batters in 150+ innings and his home run rate is way down. So why am I picking against him? The Royals are too much on a roll and if Yordano Ventura has a good game, the Royals will find a way to win.
• The Athletics over the Braves: I'm starting to think that the A's should have left their team alone at the trade deadline. But I am still a fan of Sonny Gray. The only thing that can set this pick aside is if Julio Teheran can somehow regain his fine form of a year ago.
• The White Sox over the Blue Jays: Mark Buehrle couldn't get Mo'Ne Davis out at this point. He's been getting pounded. John Danks is not much more of a solid pick, but that's how I have it today.
• The Padres over the Cardinals: Jesse Hahn Chaka Hahn is my guy. He has had a little come down to earth in his last two starts, but I like him better than this year's version of Shelby Miller.
• The Angels over the Rangers: All Matt Shoemaker does is win. I'm still not quite sure how he does it. But he does. Colby Lewis has been better of late, but he is still a hit machine.
• The Rockies over the Reds: The Reds have had some success turning around pitchers with really bad track records. I wrote about one yesterday in Zach Duke. Dylan Axelrod had gotten worse and worse with more MLB exposure. But since he joined the Reds organization, his stats look better. But then he gets to make his first MLB start of 2014 at Coors Field. That's cruel! Jordan Lyles with the win.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Clayton Kershaw. Do I need to say more? Okay, how about Clayton Kershaw at home? That's enough. Yovani Gallardo has been good lately though.

Yesterday: 8-7, August: 117-88, Games of the Day: 73-54 (+4), Season: 1011-835

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: July 10, 2014

My second day back in Maine turned once again into a negative day. I'm starting to get a complex about being back in my state. Hmm. And the negative day included both extra-inning games falling my way.

What did not help were two games that were blown by bullpens in the ninth inning. They included the White Sox ralphing the eighth and finally the ninth on the Red Sox. They were up, 5-1, going into the eighth. And then the Tampa Bay Rays had a nice lead going into the ninth against the Royals only to cough up a three-run homer to Salvatore Perez in the ninth to lose it.

Thursday's picks:

• The Reds over the Cubs: I don't believe this will be an easy win for the Reds, who lost Brandon Phillips yesterday to injury. Homer Bailey should pitch well, but the Reds will face Kyle Kendricks making his Major League debut. Kendricks is not big on folks' prospect lists, but he has good numbers in the PCL, a tough league and he has excellent control. More of a tough call than you would think.
• The Brewers over the Phillies: I've been wrong picking the Phillies for two games in a row, but I'm nothing if not stubborn. I simply think Matt Garza will be better than David Buchanan.
• The Giants over the Athletics: This one is very interesting. Scott Kazmir has been terrific for the A's. But the Giants actually hit lefties better than the other way around, which is unusual. And Tim Hudson is not going to walk into Oakland's trap of working up his pitch count.
• The White Sox over the Red Sox: This one could go either way. Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are among the best lefty starters in the game. It depends who bends the most and which one gets support. And of course, it depends on if the White Sox can close out a game.
• The Yankees over the Indians: It's not that I have uber-confidence in David Phelps. I don't. But I have even less in T.J. House. Both bullpens will be gassed. Phelps could get deeper in the game to save his. The Yankees showed resilience last night after the news about Tanaka.
• The Nationals over the Orioles: Two more lefties on a night that seems full of them. Gio Gonzalez has been terrific and so has Wei-Yin Chen. So how do you pick? The Orioles have a similar OPS against pitchers from either arm side. But the Nationals are significantly better against southpaws. So that's the pick.
• The Braves over the Mets: Bartolo Colon doesn't mess around and is around the plate. The Braves have no patience, so that suits them just fine. Aaron Harang has kept winning despite my ridicule, so there's that.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: The Cardinals are making their move. I can feel it. After dallying all season, they are putting it together. Of course, Shelby Miller hasn't been great though. But then again, neither is Edinson Volquez. Sweep time?
• The Angels over the Rangers: The Rangers are only a game ahead of the Astros in the AL West. Let that sink in a second and were just swept by those Astros. The Angels, on the other hand, are as good as I thought they would be this year. The one caveat here is that Hector Santiago is pitching for the Angels. Ugh. But the Angels will hit Colby Lewis. So it will be an 8-6 win or something.
• The Tigers over the Royals: The Emoticon, Drew Smyly, has not been very good this season. But one of his best starts was against the Royals. Jeremy Guthrie has had two bad outings in a row, but one of his best starts of the year was against the Tigers. Heh. Pick 'em.
• The Twins over the Mariners: Wait. Tom Wilhelmsen is starting for the Mariners!? Wasn't he their closer? Has he ever gone more than a couple of innings? I am still rooting for Yohan Pino to get his first MLB win.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Padres: Yeah, I know this Odrisamer Despaigne is good, but Yasiel Puig will know all about him, which helps. AND Clayton Kershaw is going for the Dodgers. That is killer and I can't wait to see what he does this time.

Yesterday: 7-8, July: 73-56, Games of the Day: 51-44, Season: 756-631

MLB Game Picks - Friday: July 4, 2014

Happy 238th birthday, United States of America!

The picks had another fine day yesterday with a 6-3 record. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks put an early scare into the day by winning and putting the picks off to a tough start, but everything except for a Rangers' loss went according to predictions.

The Rangers loss peeved me a little bit. Yu Darvish was supposed to start, but he was pulled because of unknown weather. Come on now. I'm glad the Rangers can throw around losses with the season they are having. What a stupid thing. Don't you try to win every game?

Anyway, enjoy the holiday and holiday baseball. The picks:

• The Nationals over the Cubs: Gosh, they play this game at eleven o'clock in the morning today. Tanner Roark lost to the Cubs at Wrigley a week ago and will want to avenge that. Jason Hammel is adding to his resume for some team who might trade for him.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Jon Lester is making himself expensive either for the Red Sox who finally cough up the money or for somebody else next year. Miguel Gonzalez is the weakest of the Orioles' rotation.
• The Yankees over the Twins: Chase Whitley should have a decent game today in that big ballpark. Zealous Wheeler provided a spark and even though Kyle Gibson has had a successful season, his lack of strikeouts concern me against a team like the Yankees.
• The Athletics over the Blue Jays: I need to stop thinking of Tommy Milone as a liability for the A's. He's had a good season and has been steadily good for two months now. As a lefty, he eliminates Rasmus and Adam Lind from the picture. I also think the A's will get Marcus Stroman to throw too many pitches up front.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: The battle for Pennsylvania should be a bit of a mismatch today as Roberto Hernandez has no business beating the Pirates or Gerrit Cole. Should not the Philadelphia team always be home on July 4th? Seriously. It's Philadelphia's day more than any other.
• The Giants over the Padres: The combined records for Matt Cain and Eric Stults are 3-17. Ugh. When two pitchers have had that little success, you go with the better team...the Giants.
• The Indians over the Royals: The Indians love playing at home and Josh Tomlin was lights out his last time pitching. Yordano Ventura is the wild card as you never know if he will be brilliant or all over the place.
• The Tigers over the Bay Rays: To be honest, I have no idea which team will win this game. Alex Cobb has not been great since he came back from injury and that surprises me. The Emoticon, Drew Smyly had a good game against the Rangers and then stunk up the joint against the Astros. I have no idea.
• The Reds over the Brewers: The Cinderella season for Alfredo Simon continues and one more win today could land him at the All Star Game. Kyle Lohse is 9-2 himself and will not just roll over. Interesting game.
• The Mariners over the White Sox: Roenis Elias is the key to this pick. As a lefty, he should hurt the White Sox with Adam Dunn and Adam Eaton. Can the M's scratch out a couple of runs off of Chris Sale? That's the big question.
• The Mets over the Rangers: The Rangers so deserve to lose after dickering around with Yu Darvish. And isn't that hurricane going to threaten this game in New York today? Besides, I like Jon Niese.
• The Cardinals over the Marlins: Lance Lynn sure had a lynning his last time out. Can he avoid that big crooked number today? He is at home, so he should be comfortable at least. Nate Eovaldi should win more with his stuff, but doesn't.
• The Diamondbacks over the Braves: This is my upset pick of the day. The Braves are at home and Ervin Santana can have a good game and make this look bad. But Josh Collmenter has been like the D-backs' good luck charm with his winning record in a losing season.
• The Angels over the Astros: Dallas Keuchel is back and has had a nice season. But his left-handedness is not as much a factor against the Angels. C.J. Wilson should win at home today.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Clayton Kershaw. Do I need to say more? Yes, his breaking stuff will not break as much at Coors and his scoreless streak will come to an end. But he will win. The Rockies are starting Jair Jurrjens! Remember him? This cannot go well...

Yesterday: 6-3, July: 27-13, Games of the Day: 47-42, Season: 709-588

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: May 31, 2014

Is it progress when you have your third bad night in a row but finally get a Game of the Day pick right? I guess that's progress. But I'm still fairly frustrated. Obviously, I am in a terrible rut and cannot seem to dig my way out of it. I had one 10-4 day on Tuesday, but starting with Memorial Day, on days other than Tuesday, I am 21-34. Unreal.

All I can do is keep plugging along. At least May is on its last day. That has to be good since the month has been so crappy for the picks. Oh, and I did an audit to make sure I have been doing the math correctly and found two more losses that I had to add to my season total. Lovely.

Saturday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Rangers: Doug Fister has started the season with only one walk in 23+ innings. He has three straight very good appearances. He is going to lift these Nationals. Nick Tepesch has been pitching well too, but the Rangers lose a hitter in the lineup.
• The Yankees over the Twins: The Yankees are making a habit of making lousy pitchers look good. They should be all over Kevin Correia, but will they be? How good will Masahiro Tanaka be finally getting a day game in nice weather?
• The Blue Jays over the Royals: You have two young arms in this one. Aaron Brooks is making his first MLB start. He pitched once in relief and got hit hard. He is not a strikeout guy who has lately found some command in the last year or so. Marcus Stroman, on the other hand, is a big arm also making his first MLB start. So I'm going that way.
• The White Sox over the Padres: This pick did not go well yesterday, but I am stubborn that way. Andre Rienzo has a good record and up and down performances. Tyson Ross looks great for one start and terrible on others. Bottom line? Anything can happen in this one.
• The Indians over the Rockies: Trevor Bauer has come into his own and is finally where he needs to be as a pitcher. Franklin Morales, on the other hand, has been abysmal. The Rockies on the road are not the same team.
• The Cardinals over the Giants: I like Michael Wacha way more than I like Yusmeiro Petit. And look out world, here comes Oscar Taveras.
• The Phillies over the Mets: Jacob deGrom has been very good but has been snake bit with no run support. Kyle Kendrick was great his last time out. The battle for last place continues.
• The Braves over the Marlins: I haven't picked a visiting team to win yet, so this one looks the most likely. Jacob Turner doesn't thrill me and Ervin Santana will enjoy the bigger ballpark.
• The Astros over the Orioles: Why the heck not!? Go Astros, go! Dallas Keuchel has been very good by throwing more strikes. Chris Tillman has been the O's best pitcher, but since his injury, has not thrown a good game.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: The Brewers are back after scuffling a few weeks. The Cubs have gone back to not hitting. Jason Hammel is pitching for his next job and should be bested by Wily Peralta.
• The Dodgers over the Pirates: I'm getting really nervous about picking all these home teams. But Hyun-jin Ryu is just to hard not to take at home. Brandon Cumpton is pretty good though.
• The Red Sox over the Rays: If the Rays wanted to end up on the higher end of the moral story yesterday, they had to win. And they didn't. Thus, the Red Sox will feel like the martyrs and on the high side of the narrative. The Rays are a last place team and Jake Odorizzi is not helping. The Red Sox will win despite Rubby De La Rosa starting--a kid with a big arm and no idea where the ball is going. Oh, and I hate A.J. Pierzynski with pretty much all I am.
• The Athletics over the Angels: The Angels are not going to do anything against the A's. I could see that from last night's game. Tommy Milone has rediscovered himself and is pitching really well. I like Tyler Skaggs too, but the A's are just too much.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: For the second straight night, the Reds are going to take it to the D-backs behind Johnny Cueto. Brandon McCarthy has a great Twitter account and a great wife, but he just can't seem to win.

And the Game of the Day

• The Tigers over the Mariners: If Robinson Cano is out of the lineup, forget about it. Chris Young is tall, but throws as hard as me. The Emoticon, Drew Smyly has been awful, but watch him have a good game in this one.

Yesterday: 6-9, May: 213-198, Games of the Day: 26-30, Season: 446-372