MLB Game Picks - Thursday: September 25, 2014

At one point during last night, the picks were sitting at 3-7 and I was thinking, "Uhhh...." and then (thankfully) all the rest of the games went the picks' way and I finished dead even at 7-7 with one cancellation. Normally, I wouldn't be happy with such a record, but considering where the day was, I'll take it.

So what if the last game of Derek Jeter's career at home in Yankee Stadium is rained out today? That will bite. The game won't be made up either as it would not affect the outcome of anything. The weather isn't looking good.

But let's look at that game and the rest of the picks today:

• The Brewers over the Reds: I picked against Lohse last night and regretted it. If I pick against Yovani Gallardo today, I know I'll regret it too. The Brewers are the better team, but both teams have nothing to play for. David Holmberg goes for the Reds.
• The Nationals over the Mets: The two teams will play two today to make up for the rain out yesterday. But it does change the pitching lines. I'll take Blake Treinen in the first game. The kid looks impressive. Dillon Gee goes for the Mets.
• The Mets over the Nationals: Zack Wheeler will probably face a lineup of irregulars. So that influences the pick. Gio Gonzalez will audition for the playoffs though and he will want to do well.
• The Blue Jays over the Mariners: The M's sure blew it for the wild card. I mean, they were right there. Starting relief pitchers like Tom Wilhelmsen is certainly confusing. Daniel Norris had a big year in the minors. A lefty, Norris has a big arm and some control problems.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: This pick did not work out yesterday. That darned Kendrick did it to me again. I still like Tom Koehler over David Buchanan.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: If the game is played, the Yankees have to win on Derek Jeter's last day in New York, right? Any other outcome is unacceptable. If the game is cancelled, the Yankees will have to refund all those tickets. Hiroki Kuroda could be making his last start for the Yankees. Kevin Gausman goes for the Orioles. If I were the O's, I would rest the kid for the playoffs.
• The Tigers over the Twins: The Tigers still need to clinch the division. Max Scherzer will get the job done. Trevor May or may not have a good game. Ha! I kill me.
• The Red Sox over the Rays: My favorite prospect, Garin Cecchini, hit his first Big League home yesterday and I want him to go five for five tonight. I want him at third base for the Red Sox. Make it happen. Love this kid. Oh, the game. Allen Webster over Jeremy Hellickson.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: The A's can pretty much coast as everyone else gave them the wild card by default. But it's not like they have earned it. And they won't clinch it today. Colby Lewis over Jason Hammel.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Big Game James Shields really makes his living against so-so teams, not the really big games. He should beat Jose Quintana because as good as Quintana is, he just doesn't catch any breaks.
• The Giants over the Padres: The wild card is your consolation prize, Giants. Enjoy it. Yusmeiro Petit over Andrew Cashner.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Pirates over the Braves: The Braves won yesterday, which threw me all off. Whut? But I'm pretty sure the Pirates will come back today. They are still not eliminated for the division title and have something to gun at. David Hale goes for the Braves. Meh. Edinson Volquez goes for the Pirates.

Yesterday: 7-7, Sept.: 197-135, Games of the Day: 102-65 (+2), Season: 1327-1069

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: September 7, 2014

The first five days of September were hardly inspiring for this old game picker. And yesterday, after the first ten games were in the books, I was sitting at 4-5 after counting the Cubs' loss in the suspended game from yesterday. But then seven straight correct picks came in for me to end the night at 11-5. Finally, a good day.

I don't have time to bask in the glow of the breakthrough. There is a full day of games to sort out and a tee time waiting. Heh.

Sunday's picks:

• The Indians over the White Sox: Poor Quintana again did not get support last night. Kluber was excellent. Carlos Carrasco has been surprisingly good for the Indians. Scott Carroll has his ups and downs.
• The Yankees over the Royals: Shane Greene had a really bad outing his last time out. This pick reflects the belief that he will bounce back nicely today. It's Derek Jeter day at the Stadium, so the Yankees have to win. Of course, Yordano Ventura will try to prevent that from happening.
• The Braves over the Marlins: Neither team is playing very well, but one of them has to win. Julio Teheran is a better pick than Brad Hand and that's what I'll go with.
• The Mets over the Reds: Neither team has an offense you can count on and both are sporting starting pitchers with big arms. Determining the outcome depends on which of those big arms performs. I'm going with Zack Wheeler over Mat Latos.
• The Phillies over the Nationals: I keep picking against the Phillies and they keep on winning. It's getting annoying. Making the switch is fairly easy knowing that Cole Hamels is pitching today. Gio Gonzalez won't keep up.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: This game is really tough because I do not trust either starter. R.A. Dickey could have a good game or the Red Sox could jump all over him. Rubby De La Rosa hasn't pitched a good game in a good long time. I'm taking the Red Sox at home.
• The Orioles over the Rays: It would really surprise me if the Rays won this series. Baseball is a funny game, however, and you never know. I do know that I am not a big fan of Jeremy Hellickson and Bud Norris has had a good season.
• The Angels over the Twins: Logan Darnell has had a rude start to his MLB career. However, his peripherals are good with a good K/9 and K/BB ratio. So maybe he has been unlucky. I'm still going with C.J. Wilson.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: The Cards have a chance to bury the Brewers today and have Adam Wainwright on the mound. You would think that would do the trick. Jimmy Nelson looks good at times, but this sounds like a Cards win.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: Derek Holland sure had a fine comeback outing the last time out. The only problem is that the Rangers won't hit James Paxton thus canceling out anything Holland does.
• The Athletics over the Astros: Man, the Astros lost a tough one yesterday with a blown save for the ages. Closer Chad Qualls did not get anyone out in giving up the three runs to lose it. Jason Hammel will win half of his games so picking him is a 50/50 proposition. The same can be said for Dallas Keuchel.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Tony La Russa said that he won't make up his mind about Kirk Gibson until the end of the season. Uh huh, right. He's already a goner. Today won't help with Zack Greinke defeating Trevor Cahill.
• The Padres over the Rockies: Tyson Ross has pitched well at Coors with a 3.13 ERA there. But he is 0-3. That changes today. Franklin Morales has gotten knocked around hard in his home park. The only caveat is that lefties hurt the Padres.
• The Giants over the Tigers: Miguel Cabrera has hit four homers in his last three days. So obviously he has woken up. But the Tigers still lost yesterday despite his two dingers and VMart's 30th homer. Kyle Lobstein has pitched well but doesn't last long enough to get decisions. I am worried about Tim Hudson. He is showing his age.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Pirates over the Cubs: My good feelings about the Cubs evaporated yesterday as they stunk up the joint. Gerrit Cole should finish them off today and Travis Wood continues to take it on the chin for his team.

Yesterday: 11-5, Sept.: 45-36, Games of the Day: 89-60 (+4), Season: 1175-970

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: August 20, 2014

Let's recap the bad picks from last night: The Yankees are terrible and cannot do anything right. The Rays and Tigers went back and forth all night, went into extra innings with the Tigers coming out on top. The one time I actually pick Kyle Gibson, he cannot hold a five-run lead. And Kevin Correia was predictably bad like always, but Ian Kennedy and the Padres' defense were even more bad and the Dodgers won. And...and...that's it.

All eleven of the other games were correct. Not a bad night of picking.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Marlins over the Rangers: The Marlins hung tough last night and came from behind to win after blowing a lead. I think the win tonight will be easier. Nathan Eovaldi faces Nick Martinez.
• The Phillies over the Mariners: The only reason I am picking this for the Phillies is Cole Hamels. The Phillies are going to struggle against James Paxton too, but Hamels at home is too tough for me to pick against.
• The Brewers over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays, like the Yankees, are sinking and R.A. Dickey will give up three or four runs at least. Jimmy Nelson will hold the Blue Jays to less than that and the Brewers win yet another game at home.
• The Mets over the Athletics: This is a tough one. Zack Wheeler has been outstanding. He has given up two runs or less in eight of his last nine starts and in the other won, just gave up three. The only caveat is whether the Mets can score against Jeff Samardzija. Hmm...this could go wrong for me in a heartbeat.
• The Nationals over the Diamondbacks: Imagine Kirk Gibson right now after Tony La Russa contradicted a report that said that Gibson was safe for next year. Gulp. This series isn't helping as the Nats are red hot and the D-backs are flat. Tanner Roark over Trevor Cahill.
• The Braves over the Pirates: It's nice to see Gerrit Cole back, but it won't help. He will pitch well but not last long enough in his first start back from the DL. Alex Wood has had a good season considering he wasn't supposed to be in the rotation.
• The Yankees over the Astros: Sigh. Yeah. I know. But Michael Pineda is pitching. That might be enough to make a difference. Scott Feldman pitches like Tom Seaver against the Yankees though. But then the Yankees' offense makes every pitcher look like Tom Seaver.
• The Angels over the Red Sox: I never know what to do when a pitcher pitches against a team for the second time in a row over a two week span. The batters know what to expect. With Garrett Richards, can the Red Sox hit what they expect? And what of Clay Buchholz, who has really had a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde season?
• The Rays over the Tigers: Let's try this again. Rick Porcello is on a losing streak and hasn't seemed as sharp. Jake Odorizzi has been buried a lot in my column, but gets his share of wins despite my facetiousness.  The Trop is so depressing.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Normally, I would always pick Johnny Cueto. However, first off, Lance Lynn has been great for the Cardinals and secondly, the Reds are now 10-21 since the All Star Break.
• The Giants over the Cubs: The Giants have to be pretty upset the way the field was handled during that rain delay yesterday. That is the second time that has happened in baseball this season where a ground crew could not get the field covered for a rain storm. Jake Peavy got off the schnide last time out and won a game. So we'll go with that over Edwin Jackson.
• The Indians over the Twins: Ricky Nolasco has a 5.99 ERA for the Twins this season and a 1.60 WHIP. Whoa, that's bad! He has given up five or more runs in each of his last two starts. Those are enough reasons to pick the Indians even if T.J. House starts for the Indians.
• The Rockies over the Royals: I am going to go against the grain here with this pick. Danny Duffy has been good, but Coors Field will flatten out his great off-speed stuff. Jorge De La Rosa is used to Coors and keeps the Rockies in the game enough to win this one.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Okay, I picked the Padres yesterday and got burnt. I picked Eric Stults the last time he pitched and got burnt. Like a dog, I learn by pain sometimes. Roberto Hernandez goes for the Dodgers.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Orioles over the White Sox: Hector Noesi has been surprisingly serviceable for the White Sox this season. But he is facing the Orioles, who are going to win the AL East. And Wei-Yin Chen is a big reason why.

Yesterday: 11-4, August: 149-109, Games of the Day: 76-55 (+3), Season: 1043-858

MLB Game Picks - Friday: August 15, 2014

The picks went off nearly flawlessly yesterday with a 9-1 record. The only incorrect pick was picking San Diego over the Cardinals. Trevor Rosenthal almost gave that game away too for the Cardinals as he allowed five base runners in the ninth but only one run. How is that possible? Heh. If the Padres had secured that comeback, it would have been a perfect day.

We have a new commissioner. I don't know how I feel about that. Time will tell I guess. I won't be sad to see the end of Bud Selig's reign. Other than the labor peace for the last twenty years and the financial condition of the game, I have pretty much detested the guy.

Let's see if I can keep this hot streak going. Friday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Indians: Can even Corey Kluber stop the Orioles? I doubt it. As good as Kluber is, the zeroes can be matched by Wei-Yin Chen and then the Orioles win the bullpen battle. Either way, I see an Oriole win. The two starters are 25-10 between them.
• The Nationals over the Pirates: Bryce Harper is heating up and Tanner Roark has had a solid season. The Pirates miss McCutchen and are still a starter short with Charlie Morton continuing in the rotation.
• The Tigers over the Mariners: This is a tough one. James Paxton is a special young arm. But the Tigers are bothered less by lefties than pretty much anyone. Plus, Rick Porcello has had a good season for the Tigers. This could go either way though.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: The Marlins are tough at their home park. My only reservation is Brad Hand getting the start. Then again, Trevor Cahill does not inspire me either. I am going with the home team since the pitchers seem to cancel each other out.
• The Mets over the Cubs: Zack Wheeler has had a great month and a half and if he has found himself now, the Mets have to feel good about their future rotation. Good old Travis Wood goes for the Cubs. With him a lot depends where he spots his 88 MPH fastball.
• The Red Sox over the Astros: Clay Buchholz is still a mystery and picking him gives me the shivers. But facing a team of free swingers, he should be fine. Dallas Keuchel hasn't been as good in the last month and a half as he was earlier.
• The Rays over the Yankees: Tropicana Field is kryptonite to the Yankees who are already struggling to the point of no return. The only interesting question between these two teams is which one will end up with the better record. It's open for debate right now. Brandon McCarthy versus Alex Cobb.
• The Braves over the Athletics: The Braves mirror what is going on with the Yankees. The team has lost seven of their last ten and are six games back of Washington and three games out of the wild card. But Alex Wood has been one of their few bright spots of late. I like him over Jason Hammel.
• The Royals over the Twins: I bet Twins fans are happy to see Ricky Nolasco back off the DL. Not. Of course, Danny Duffy has to have a good day against Joe Mauer and company.
• The Blue Jays over the White Sox: I'm still not sure what to make of Hector Noesi. Can he really be surviving this well judging from his past history? It's a head scratcher. But I am sure about Marcus Stroman, who, other than a coupld of clunkers, has pitched really well for the Blue Jays.
• The Cardinals over the Padres: Lance Lynn has been a real solid part of the Cardinals' rotation all season. Tyson Ross has done well for the Padres, but I have to go with Lynn here.
• The Reds over the Rockies: While I think that the Reds' season is toast, watching Johnny Cueto is still a treat. I do worry about him pitching at Coors Field. But Franklin Morales has to face that as well and he isn't nearly as good as Cueto.
• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Zack Greinke has really struggled of late. But him starting at home has to be worth a shot here. The Dodgers are starting to run away from the division and that should continue. I like Jimmy Nelson, but not enough to pick him here.
• The Giants over the Phillies: This game is a great match-up of two really great pitchers. Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels could be a draw. Either one of them could have a big outing. I'll give Bumgarner the edge at home.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Angels over the Rangers: The Angels still have a real good shot at the division title and it is games and series like this one that they have to win. They have a good chance to start this off well with Garrett Richards on the mound facing Nick Martinez. That seems like a solid mismatch.

Yesterday: 9-1, August: 109-81, Games of the Day: 72-54 (+3), Season: 1003-828

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: August 10, 2014

Saturday was a train wreck of a day for picking. First of all, there were five extra-inning games. Five! One went nineteen innings. The longest one was the only one that went my way. All the others caused incorrect picks. One of those was a blown save by Joe Nathan. The guy has nothing left as a closer, in my humble opinion.

But the game that causes me the most disbelief was that Brad Penny won a start against the Reds. He wasn't great in his five innings. But he got a W. And I'm eating crow because I didn't think there was a chance in the world that he could pull that off. Penny didn't pitch in the Majors at all in 2013 and hadn't started a game since 2011. His FIP in 2011 and 2012 were both over five. And he won a game. Baseball.

Sunday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Indians: Yes, I should have stuck with Corey Kluber yesterday. I outwitted myself there. I will think long and hard about doing that again. But today is a different story. If Hiroki Kuroda cannot beat Carlos Carrasco in a day game at YS3, then I should just give up doing this.
• The Tigers over the Blue Jays: The Tigers have lost four of their last six games despite their ace rotation. For one thing, they can't finish out a game. And for another, those aces have to perform. David Price has his turn today and should beat a really struggling Mark Buehrle.
• The Reds over the Marlins: The Reds have really fallen on hard times. Once a contender, the team is only a game over .500. But don't blame Johnny Cueto for any of that. He's been just great and should be so today to beat Brad Hand and the Marlins.
• The Mets over the Phillies: Zack Wheeler has really figured it out and has been really, really hard to beat over the last month or two. Kyle Kendrick has been pitching better of late as well. I will take the young power over the junk-in-the-trunk pitcher just about always.
• The Padres over the Pirates: The Padres have won seven of their last ten games. And the Pirates really miss Andrew McCutchen. You just can't miss a guy like that in your lineup. Besides all of that, Tyson Ross is a better pitcher than Charlie Morton. Look for Seth Smith to have a big game.
• The Orioles over the Cardinals: I've been fried nearly every time I pick against the Orioles. They just never lose. Kevin Gausman over Lance Lynn.
• The Dodgers over the Brewers: I like picking the Brewers at home. And I like Jimmy Nelson and the way he has responded in the Majors. But picking against Clayton Kershaw is usually not a good idea.
• The Royals over the Giants: This is one pick that has been correct all weekend, so I don't want to mess it up. Danny Duffy will have to be the good version and Tim Lincecum will have to be the bad version. It could happen.
• The Astros over the Rangers: I couldn't even get a win from the Rangers with Yu Darvish pitching. Sheesh, they are a mess. Nick Martinez probably won't help and Dallas Keuchel will probably get another win.
• The Angels over the Red Sox: The Red Sox are a proud team and they should be. They are the World Champs. But in yesterday's game in nineteen innings, they only compiled six hits. They went six for sixty. Man. Rubby De La Rosa has his moments and I sure wish that Hector Santiago's profile picture on MLB.com would change. I hate that thing.
• The Twins over the Athletics: I'm getting all jiggy with this pick. I like Phil Hughes at a big park like in Oakland. I don't like what I am seeing from the A's' lineup. And Jason Hammel should have been flipped when they got him from the Cubs. Of course, I could just be an idiot.
• The Mariners over the White Sox: What do you do when you don't like either starting pitcher? I mean, how can you pick between Erasmo Ramirez and John Danks?
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: You can clearly see in this series that the D-backs are a better team than the Rockies. The Rockies, meanwhile, are full of unhappy players. Guys who are hurt all the time saying they are sick of losing seems like a bit of a stretch, don't you think? Wade Miley and Franklin Morales are the starters.
• The Braves over the Nationals: Gio Gonzalez bothers me. He is another one of those supposed aces that never wins when you expect him to. His left-hand throwing won't be a problem for the Braves with their power right-hand bats. The only question left will be how good Alex Wood will be.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Rays over the Cubs: The Rays keep throwing good pitching at the Cubs and the Cubs are helpless to respond. Alex Cobb should keep that going and poor Travis Wood just hasn't had a good season.

Yesterday: 5-10, August: 68-57, Games of the Day: 69-52 (-1), Season: 962-804