MLB Game Picks - Sunday: May 3, 2015

Saturday was a 9-6 day but the Pick of the Day was wrong as the Cubs finally lost. My luck has turned on extra-inning games as the last three have gone my way.  Who knew that picking the Twins would be so fortuitous. Who knew the Astros were going to be this good?

I did have one incredible coincidence of bad luck yesterday and it cost me two picks. On the same day, the last out was recorded giving the Giants and the Dodgers wins because a batted ball hit a base runner. Both would have been base hits and both would have at least tied the games. How's that for incredible? 

Sunday's picks:

• The Marlins over the Phillies: The Marlins complete the sweep of the hapless Phils as Jarred Cosart finishes them off. Severino Gonzalez got rocked in his first start. What will happen today?
• The Indians over the Blue Jays: Trevor Bauer and Drew Hutchison have the exact same 2-0 record. The difference is that Bauer has had four starts and all were quality starts. Hutchison? Not so much.
• The Nationals over the Mets: I really shouldn't base so much on the starting pitchers. But I tend to. In this case, I like Doug Fister much more than the current iteration of Dillon Gee.
• The Reds over the Braves: Johnny Cueto versus Julio Teheran can be a pretty good match-up. That said, the Reds will score lots of runs and win this one.
• The Orioles over the Bay Rays: I bet the Orioles wish they still had Nelson Cruz. Holy cow, that guy is amazing. But anyway, the O's still have some punch and should take care of Nathan Karns. Then, all they need is for Wei-Yin Chen to pitch well.
• The Twins over the White Sox: I have picked against Mike Pelfrey all the time this early season and he is making me look stupid (not that it is difficult). So I will pick him today and probably still look stupid. John Danks goes for the White Sox.
• The Tigers over the Royals: The rubber game of the series features Anibal Sanchez against Jeremy Guthrie. Sanchez has made some adjustments and is pitching much better. Jeremy Guthrie should leaver a hanger or two about to cost the game.
• The Astros over the Mariners: I might as well stick with the very hot Astros. I wasn't going to because Roberto Hernandez is pitching. But he hasn't been half bad this season. J.A. Happ goes for the M's and has pitched well himself.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: The Cardinals will complete the sweep. But it will considerably easier today as they should win easily behind Michael Wacha going against Vance Worley. It scares me whenever I perceive a mismatch, however.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: The last time I sang Jimmy Nelson's praises, he gave up thirteen base runners in 2.1 innings. Yeesh. Perhaps Nelson will get back on track today. But I'm still going with the Cubs behind Jason Hammels.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: The Rangers are playing better and Yovani Gallardo has been pretty good for them. But Sonny Gray is my guy. Whenever he pitches, it is a Sonny Gray Day.
• The Giants over the Angels: The better days are behind both Tim Lincecum and Jered Weaver. But Lincecum still has somewhat of a big league fastball. Weaver couldn't out-gun Jamie Moyer at this point.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: I do believe this is the second battle of the Andersons this season. Chase Anderson is the better one and Brett Anderson is not. So that is the pick.
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: The Red Sox will salvage the last game of this series as Joe Kelly is a better pitcher than Adam Warren. At least when considering how each will do against his opponent team. Kelly reminds me a lot of Eovaldi.

And the Pick of the Day is:

• The Padres over the Rockies: Kyle Kendrick has made a career of making me look foolish. Whenever I pick against him, he mocks me. But heck, I still think James Shields and the Padres will prevail today.

Yesterday: 9-6, May: 17-13, Season: 181-178, Picks of the Day: 14-13

MLB Game Picks - Monday: April 20, 2015

Sunday was not as good as the two prior days, but at least I was (barely) over .500 for the day. That's a far cry better than what I was doing last week. Former Yankees, Shane Greene and Brandon McCarthy continued to shine. And those Yankees swept a series at Tropicana Field for the first time in ten years. But a lot more went wrong such as Jon Lester not winning again.

Today is a short schedule as well as the annual Patriots Day Game at Fenway Park. Here are the picks:

• The Orioles over the Red Sox: I just can't pick the Red Sox when Justin Masterson pitches. Instead, I will go to Wei-Yin Chen. I know he is a Yankee killer, but no so much with Boston. We'll see.
• The Pirates over the Cubs: The Pirates are starting to hit a little bit and they will need to against Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta, who can be tough. A.J. Burnett should never be counted upon, but he does have a good game now and then.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: Either CC Sabathia will get killed in the first three innings against the Tigers or he'll have an okay day and the Yankees will score freely on Alfredo Simon. One of the two will happen, but I don't know which.
• The Indians over the White Sox: I'm picking too many visiting teams here, but I need to go with what makes sense. What makes sense is that Trevor Bauer has been outstanding and John Danks has not been outstanding for a long time.
• The Royals over the Twins: The Royals were beaten pretty good by the Twins last week and will try to even that score. Edinson Volquez will attempt to do his part and pitch well and Kyle Gibson won't beat the Royals twice in a row.
• The Padres over the Rockies: Jorge De La Rosa takes his four-name act back to the mound for the first time this season after starting on the DL. That always makes me uncomfortable. The Padres have some mashers who might have fun at Coors. The wild card is Odrisamer Despaigne.
• The Angels over the Athletics: I always have to pick Matt Shoemaker. He has always been there for me. Kendall Graveman is still too wild for my tastes and until he has better command, I don't trust him.
• The Mariners over the Astros: Hisashi Iwakuma is very good at home usually so I will take the M's. Randall Asher Wojciechowski is not only tough to spell, but tough to discern on how he will pitch.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Reds over the Brewers: The Reds just got swept by the Cardinals...again. They will be hunting for bear and the Brewers are ripe for the picking these days. Anthony DeSclafani over Wily Peralta.

Yesterday: 8-7, Season: 91-95, Picks of the Day: 6-8

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: April 7, 2015

Well...I'm not off to a great start this season. It seems like we must have broken a record for Opening Day shutouts. There were a bunch of them! Bartolo Colon and Kyle Kendrick made me eat my words. And I guess I deserved that comeuppance.

But onward we go. Tuesday's picks:

• The Marlins over the Braves: I have no real feel for this one. Mat Latos verses Alex Wood seems like a wash to me. I'll go with the Marlins as the home team. But I was wrong yesterday...
• The Orioles over the Bay Rays: The Rays and Yankees might be the two worst offensive teams in the AL East. Wei-Yin Chen has a proven track record and Nathan Karns is a bit of a package we are waiting to open to see what's inside.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: The Cubbies looked pretty awful on Sunday night. Jake Arrieta gives them a fighting chance. But I don't think the Cubs will hit Lance Lynn. We've got ten more days of this, Cubs fans.
• The Brewers over the Rockies: This pick could not have been more wrong yesterday. Wow, what a slaughter. Matt Garza does not thrill me. But then again, neither does Jordan Lyles. The Brewers might be a bad team...
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: I've never had a lot of confidence in Ryan Vogelsong. But there he is year after year with the Giants. My mouth still has a sour taste for Rubby De La Rosa after his season a year ago.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: Jesse "Chaka" Hahn was a good luck charm last year, so I have to go with him. Lucky charms aside, I'll take him any day over Colby Lewis.
• The Mariners over the Angels: The M's made a pretty good opening statement yesterday and James Paxton is another great arm. C.J. Wilson has caught a lot of grief this spring for a guy who has been successful in Los Angeles of Anaheim or something or other.

And the Pick of the Day

• The Dodgers over the Padres: Tyson Ross is good. Zack Greinke is better.

Yesterday: 7-7, Season: 8-7, Picks of the Day: 0-1

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: October 14, 2014

Yesterday was a washout for Major League Baseball as the one playoff game had to be cancelled due to weather. That means we get two games today. The NLCS will start at four o'clock and the ALCS at eight. Despite being rained out, the Royals and Orioles will still feature the same pitching match-up as scheduled yesterday. While in the NLCS, the Cardinals must make do without their fiery leader, Yadier Molina. Come on down, A.J. Pierzynski.

The picks:

• The Cardinals over the Giants: Despite the absence of Molina, I still think the Cardinals win this game IF John Lackey comes up big. Tim Hudson goes for the Giants and he was brilliant in his one 2014 post season start thus far. But that comes after a sub par season and it is hard to know which one will show up tonight. The same could be said for Lackey. When Lackey is on, he is wicked. If he is not, balls fly all over the ballpark. It will be interesting.

• The Orioles over the Royals: I'm still going with the same picks as yesterday since the pitching line is supposed to remain the same. I understand why the Royals would pitch Jeremy Guthrie as he deserves the start. He has been with the Royals for two and a half years and always battles hard for them. But on the other hand, the Orioles know him as he pitched for them not long ago and Guthrie is a homer waiting to happen. Wei-Yin Chen is the wild card in all this. Left-handed pitching does not bother the Royals very much. A key match-up for Chen will be Billy Butler who absolutely rakes lefty pitching.

Post Season: 8-12, Season: 1373-1102

MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 13, 2014

Happy Columbus Day to all of you fortunate enough to get the federal holiday off. It would have been nice during the holiday to have a day game to watch in the playoffs. But, heavens, that would be sacrilege.  And so we will wait all the way to eight o'clock tonight to watch the Orioles and Royals resume their series, this time in Kansas City.

The Cardinals evened their series against the Giants with a Kolten Wong walk off laser. It was the fourth homer the Cards hit in the game. Isn't it weird how these teams like the Cards and Royals who hardly hit any homers in the season have hit so many in the post season? Anyway, the homer is the problem you face with Jake Peavy pitching and I kind of called that one yesterday.

The Orioles, of course, are in trouble now having to play in Kansas City down two games to none. They have effectively squandered their home field advantage and the Royals just have to win two of five to head to the World Series. So can the Orioles fight back? Or will they melt away in four? Let's take a look.

The pick:

• The Orioles over the Royals: The pitching line here seems to favor the Orioles. Wei-Yin Chen, if he is on, is very effective and his winning percentage this year showed how good he can be. Jeremy Guthrie is a smoke and mirrors guy who relies on a good BABIP to win. That means that Guthrie will either be head-scratchingly good or pound-into-submission bad. Even if it is somewhere in between, I think the Orioles win it. You can be sure that the Royals fans will be going crazy some it would be helpful to the Orioles to score early (and often). Let me put it this way: If the Orioles cannot beat Guthrie, then they will be playing golf really soon.

Yesterday: 1-0, Post Season: 8-12, Season: 1373-1102

MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 3, 2014

The two home teams in the ALDS had completely opposite days. The Orioles romped and the Angels lost to a gritty Royals team that knows how to play those close games. The results gave me a 1-1 day picking. At least I finally got my first correct pick of the post season.

Of course it was the extra-inning game that got me yesterday. And the home loss puts the Angels in a bind. Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton went a combined 0-13 in the game. There is no way the Angels win if that continues.

Today is playoff nirvana with four games. If you were so inclined, you could watch all four games from noon today (Eastern Time) through after midnight. It should be a fun day.

The picks:

• The Orioles over the Tigers: Again, there is something about this Orioles team. They just seem to have it, if you know what I mean. Justin Verlander is no longer the top dog on the Tigers' rotation and the Orioles already beat the top dog. Wei-Yin Chen is the wild card here. How he pitches will depend on how the game goes. I'm going Orioles.
• The Nationals over the Giants: Stephen Strasburg worries me. How will he pitch today? But Jake Peavy scares me more. The odds of the Nationals' lineup getting to Peavy seem greater in this case. Peavy has been here before, however, and Strasburg has not.
• The Dodgers over the Cardinals: What a great match-up this is (on paper). Clayton Kershaw versus Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been through this a half dozen times and knows what he has to do. Kershaw has had one crack at it and did not do well. But head to head, you've got to believe that Kershaw completely shuts down the Cardinals while Wainwright begrudgingly gives up a two-spot.
• The Angels over the Royals: Nothing like picking only home teams, there, William. How has that worked out for you so far? Not very good. I worry more about Yordano Ventura than I do Matt Shoemaker. But the worry for Shoemaker is his health. He didn't pitch the last couple of weeks and who knows how effective he will be. If this was the Matt Shoemaker that was on the roll for July and August, I would not hesitate. Now there is much hesitation.

Yesterday: 1-1, Post Season: 1-3, Season: 1366-1093

MLB Game Picks - Monday: September 15, 2014

Sunday ended up being a 10-5 day which erased some of the bad taste of Saturday. The Orioles moved closer to the inevitable division crown as did the Dodgers, Cardinals, Tigers and Nationals. With "magic numbers" now on the standings, it won't be long until some of these teams can start resting people and set up their post season runs.

Clayton Kershaw continued his fantastical season. The A's and Jon Lester took care of the Mariners with ease. Three blown saves actually helped my picks in two of them. Things are becoming clearer all the time with only two weeks left in the season.

I forgot one thing yesterday. Every win streak has been stopped at ten games. The Angels headed into yesterday at ten games. I should have known.

Twelve games are on the Monday schedule. Let's get to them:

• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: The O's have been swatting aside pretenders all season and Wei-Yin Chen has had a great season. The last time he faced the Blue Jays, however, he got cuffed around a little bit. But here is my final logic on the way the game goes: Marcus Stroman, who has been terrific, pitched a complete game his last time out. I have noticed all season that pitcher who do so have little success in their very next outing.
• The Mets over the Marlins: Jacob deGrom and Jarred Cosart have been very successful in their last two months. So who to go with? My rule has always been when both offenses cancel each other out and the pitching match-up cancels each other out, go with the home team.
• The Rays over the Yankees: Chris Capuano has fallen on hard times. Alex Colome is nothing great shakes, but he will look like Roger Clemens against the Yankees' offense. The Yankees hate playing in that trash dome.
• The Braves over the Nationals: Stephen Strasburg never pitches well in Atlanta. Never. Plus, he is weaker on the road than at home. Double whammy. Ervin Santana has had a nice season.
• The Reds over the Cubs: This game all depends on how well Alfredo Simon pitches. You know Travis Wood will give up three or four runs or more. So Simon is the key to the game.
• The Royals over the White Sox: I can't ever pick the White Sox with John Danks pitching. The guy sure is a mystery and he has been bad for a long time. How much longer will he keep getting the ball? James Shields needs to pitch well.
• The Astros over the Indians: I have had good success with Collin McHugh and if he can pitch through the sixth or seventh, he has been golden. Zach McAllister has not fared as well.
• The Rockies over the Dodgers: The Dodgers are likely to have a bit of a letdown after their big series against the Giants. Besides, Roberto Hernandez in Coors is scary. Christian Bergman goes for the Rockies.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: The Giants aren't dead despite their series loss to the Dodgers. They are only three back and also in the wild card hunt. Ryan Vogelsong is a weak link in their rotation, though. Wade Miley is unpredictable.
• The Angels over the Mariners: Hisashi Iwakuma is very good. But so is Matt Shoemaker and the Angels have the better offense. I'm going Angels here.
• The Phillies over the Padres: Andrew Cashner cannot seem to put it together after the Padres counted on him so heavily. Jerome Williams is just a fill-in pitcher for the Phillies, but if his sinker is on, he can be too.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Tigers over the Twins: Max Scherzer should have a good day today and Anthony Swarzak has spent most of the season in the Twins' bullpen. That's not a good combination.

Yesterday: 10-5, Sept.: 115-79, Games of the Day: 94-63 (+2), Season: 1245-1013

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: September 10, 2014

Have you ever noticed that my picks are always more successful west of the Mississippi than they are east of it? For example, I started yesterday with the east coast and was 1-3 before my supper digested. I built that up to 5-5 and then did not get another game wrong the rest of the day. Weird. Maybe in the east, the teams are more on par and play closer games and in the west, there are more differences between the teams. Whatever it is, the west gave me a good night.

I did pick Collin McHugh and Houston to beat the Mariners. That was a nice pick. I was unfortunately correct about the Tigers though Joe Nathan made it interesting as he always does.. I did not see the Phillies beating the Pirates though.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Red Sox: Brandon Workman wants to start and not be in the bullpen. He hasn't exactly made a case for himself. Wei-Yin Chen has a great record but it hasn't changed much in a while. I just pick the Orioles every night and that seems to work pretty well.
• The Nationals over the Braves: Here we go again...picking Stephen Strasburg against the Braves. Hey, he has to have a good outing against them some time...even if it's just lucky or something. Aaron Harang goes for the Braves.
• The Indians over the Twins: This pick did not work out yesterday. Mr. T.J. House has put it together, however, and has two really good outings in a row. Kyle Gibson wins more than he loses, but you got me as to how.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: I told you in the past that Jerome Williams' magic only lasts for a couple of starts with each new team. Then he turns into the guy his team wants to DFA. That's just his history. Vance Worley isn't grooving much better these days...
• The Rays over the Yankees: Jake Odorizzi over Chris Capuano. I don't want to talk about it.
• The Blue Jays over the Cubs: Hmm...which great young pitcher will pitch better, Drew Hutchison or Kyle Hendricks? That's a tough one. I turned it around to which team is better able to hit against each pitcher. There was my answer.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Poof. I knew this series would go down just like it did. Let's see if I'm right through the end. Rick Porcello needs to be better than he has been lately. James Shields is "Big Game" except when it comes to the Tigers.
• The Mets over the Rockies: Location is everything. If Rafael Montero wasn't pitching in vast Citi Field, I wouldn't pick him. But since he is with his fly ball tendencies, he can get away with that and get his first big league win. Tyler Matzek grimly takes the ball every fifth day...
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Despite a bad loss last night in which the Cardinal twitter universe spewed all over manager, Mike Matheny, I am predicting a good game from John Lackey and a bad one from Alfredo Simon.
• The Angels over the Rangers: Until Derek Holland came back and with Darvish out, Nick Tepesch was the best of the Rangers' young starters. That still wasn't saying much. Matt Shoemaker is a machine. Does he have a flaw?
• The Marlins over the Brewers: The Brewers can't do anything right and are sinking like a mafia swimmer. Wily Peralta has had a good season and maybe he can stop the bleeding. I wouldn't count on it. Jarred Cosart has been really good for the Marlins.
• The Mariners over the Astros: Nick Tropeano is from West Islip, NY, so you have to say his name right. Turn your hand up and tough your thumb to your forefinger and say, "Nick Trop-ee-AH-no." The young man, making his MLB debut, has impressive numbers for the PCL (a hitter's league) and good control. Too bad he goes against Hisashi Iwakuma at home. Sorry about that.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Dan Haren and Ian Kennedy both confuse and confound me, so I'll just pick the home team.
• The Diamondbacks over the Giants: Josh Collmenter has really impressed me this season. Nice job, sir. Ryan Vogelsong has a very nice wife.

And the Game of the Day

• The Athletics over the White Sox: I hate to be a hound, but Chris Bassitt doesn't have the command to beat a team like the A's. Jeff Samardzija should feel at home back in Chicago.

Yesterday: 10-5, Sept.: 71-52, Games of the Day: 92-60 (+6), Season: 1201-986