Yankees Miss Jugular

The New York Yankees won the first two games in their series against the Tampa Bay Rays and built their largest lead of the year in the division. They lost a tough game on Saturday on a walk-off homer. Hey, that happens. The team still had a chance of leaving that house of horrors called, Tropicana Field, of taking three of four games. Instead, Aaron Boone said it was a good time to rest his two most reliable and versatile hitters (and All Stars), DJ LaMahieu and Gleyber Torres. The Yankees scored one run against Charlie Morton and settled for a split. Instead of stepping on the Rays' jugular, the Yankees stuck to their every game is not important way of life.

I should be ecstatic with the lead the Yankees have in the division considering all the injuries the team suffered over the first half of the season (and continue to have). I should feel good about where the team is heading into the break. The team's place in the standings beats my expectations and hopes to this point. I should be grateful, right?

I would be more grateful if the Yankees' manager and staff (and those analytic squad-mates) had more of a killer instinct. I keep going back to my lack of understanding of the value of rest when a game is lost in the process. In theory, the rested player will perform at a higher level and be worth a few more percentage points in Wins Above Replacement from being rested. What I do not get is how hypothetical "wins" are more important than actual wins.

The counter argument would be: Can you guarantee that the Yankees would have won against Morton if DJLM and Gleyber played the game? Of course not. That said, I still think the odds of winning would have been far greater. The value of DJLM and Gleyber Torres is that they are versatile hitters. Those are the types of hitters needed against an ace like Charlie Morton. Without BOTH in the lineup, the Yankees are basically full of three-outcome batters (walk, strikeout, homer). A pitcher like Morton can fully exploit a lineup like that just as Morton did with one run and a gazillion strikeouts.

 Aaron Boone said that he felt that both needed a break as the team leaned on them heavily during the first half. How heavy is heavily? Both DJLM and Gleyber Torres have played in 81 of the Yankees' 88 games. They each now have seven days off to this point in the season. That does not sound overworked to me. Gleyber Torres is 23-years-old. Brett Gardner has played 83 games thus far. He is the older veteran.  Cody Bellenger is also 23 and has played in 88 of the Dodgers' 91 games. Max Muncy is closer to LeMahieu's age and has played 89.

One could also make a point that Torres and LeMahieu will not get a normal break like the others because of the All Star Game and have to travel to Cleveland. Oh boohoo! Mike Trout played Sunday as did Bellinger. Both are the best players in their respective leagues and have to travel further away from and to home for the All Star Game than any of the Yankees' players.

I do not advocate the Billy Martin way of playing his players and his pitchers until they dropped. Boone is observant enough to see the signs that a player needs a day. But this feels all too programmed and, at the same time, illogical. All I know is that the Yankees allowed the Rays to get two games closer and keep their hopes alive and, more importantly, allowed the Red Sox to creep two games closer instead of being buried in a deeper hole come the All Star Break. AND, it hurt them in the "best record in the AL" department.

The Yankees are in a tough division that is far from decided. Injuries still present problems and question marks. Pitching is still a bit of problem. The Yankees need to present the best possible lineup on the field. That means having versatile hitters interspersed with the boppers who sometimes deliver and sometimes do not. I should be happy. And I am. But I would be happier if this team had more of a killer instinct.

Over Under On How Many Yankee Regulars Rest In Twin Bill

I obviously wrote this before finding out about Kendrys Morales. And no, I am not thrilled with the deal at all. If he costs Clint Frazier a single at bat, I will be upset. And after the double-header, which player will be sent down to get back to 25? Argh!

That title is way too long! I could not think of a shorter one. Anyway, The New York Yankees have had the first two games of a cushy home series against the Orioles rained out. That is unfortunate as it would have been nice to have the easier opponent for a few games. Now they will have to play two double-headers to make up the losses. One will be on Wednesday. My question here is, despite not playing the last two days and having an off day on Thursday, how many Yankee regulars will have at least one game off during the double-header? My number is three with a lean toward over.

At this point, the "regulars" are: Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Cameron Maybin, Clint Frazier and Gary Sanchez. I can predict easily that Sanchez will sit one of the games as catchers never play both halves. Gleyber Torres seems to have a barking elbow, so he will sit at least one game. And Aaron Hicks is just coming back from the DL, so "caution" will dictate him sitting at least one of the games. Who is my fourth? Let's make it Brett Gardner who often sits one game of a double-header. That will mean that Hicks will play one game in center and Gardner the other.

I can somewhat understand Sanchez and Gleyber. Both are dinged a little and I get the catcher thing. That would be the only two *I* would rest. If Hicks is not healthy enough to be back and play two games, then he shouldn't be back.

But, do not be surprised if the Yankees, in their infinite wisdom and hell-fire desire to rest people, rest more than four. If so, I will be furious and it will not be the first time this season, nor will it be the last.

Let's talk about this rest thing for a minute. I did some work at baseball-reference.com to find out the adverse affects playing almost every game has on players. Obviously, I am not a numbers guru and there are flaws in my thinking. For example, I concentrate on OPS because figuring out first half and second half WAR would be beyond me. I still do not believe in the fielding statistics and no one has convinced me that they are not seriously flawed....still. So, I went by OPS. And you can follow along with my thought process with my spreadsheet on Google Sheets here (click on the word, "here").

What I found first that was interesting to me was that from 1940 to 2018, the average number of players that played nearly every game has remained around ten players per year. There are big swings and variations from year to year, but that average has held true for 70 years. But in the last five seasons, the average number of players playing at least 160 games has dropped to 7.8 players a year. So this idea of resting players is taking a hold on teams and began about five seasons ago.

There were 90 players who played 160 games or more in a season since 2010. Of those players, 51 of them or 57% had a worse second half than their first half. The same 90 produced 45 or exactly half as many worse Septembers than their season's OPS. Ten of them, or 10% played less than 100 games the following season. The latter statistic seems incidental and more of the fluke injury kind of thing.

There were several repeat players on the list. Hunter Pence did it twice and once way under-performed in the second half of the season and in the September and once way over-performed both. The same thing happened with Prince Fielder. Others that did it multiple times (more than two) had a season or two where they were worse in the second half and the last month and a season or two better. So there really was not a rhyme or reason for multiple full-season players.

There were some players who had amazing second halves and last months and some that had abysmal ones. The average season OPS among the 90 seasons was .809. The average OPS for the second half among the 90 was .802. And the last month of the season average was also .802. While there were a lot of variations among the 90, the averages as a whole do not fall off a cliff.

If I did notice one trend, it was that middle infielders seemed to suffer from playing almost every game more than most others. Among the few that really tanked in September (besides the one by Hunter Pence already mentioned) guys like Rougned Odor and Jonathan Schoop had September OPS figures in the .500s. That said, Alcides Escobar finished better in multiple seasons in the second half and the last month. So there isn't a global statement that can be mentioned about infielders.

Perhaps I should have used OPS+ or some of the Fangraphs.com stats to look at the splits. And please note that I am not anywhere close to proving anything. But my list just does not show a smoking gun that playing nearly every game means a player will be far less valuable later on in the season. Call it a conversation starter that others smarter than I can do the math justice.

I am willing to go so far as to say giving a player a day off during a long stretch is probably a good thing. I am not willing to move from my position that a player who is on a good roll should not skip a game during that roll. Nor do I think it necessary to give a player a day off when the schedule already has a day off that week or just recently. If a player is banged up a little and could use a day off combined with a scheduled day off is okay I guess.

I am just not okay with the idea that a game can be put at risk because you want to keep your best players on the bench to rest them. How about if you lose the division by a game? How about if you lose the wildcard by a game? How about if you lose out on home field advantage by a game? No, I will never accept that. I do not know if Aaron Boone makes those decisions or he is given direction by the analytics department. Every game is important and every game should be fully attempted to win. My beef is when this rest analytic stuff puts the Yankees in a poorer position to win the game.

Good Thing The Yankees Can Afford To Give Away Games

Perhaps I should not write this post right now. I should probably wait until I cool off. But I am just so angry I cannot contain myself. I am not a journalist. I don't have to be fair or partial. This is my page. So here it is. Why am I so angry? I am angry because the Yankee manager (probably on orders from above) is all about resting players. And so on any given night, the Yankees can decide that the strategy of resting players is more important than winning the game. I am thrilled that the Yankees are SO confident that they think they afford to throw away games to follow their resting strategy.

The Yankees just lost two key players yesterday. Both were cogs in their powerful lineup. So without Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar, the team is already without two of its best hitters. Gary Sanchez has hit homers the last two games. There has already been one day off this season in between the four games Sanchez has played. Well, the Yankees can afford to give games away, so you might as well rest Gary Sanchez. Right? After all, the stat people calling the shots say that resting players will boost their value output over time.

There is only one problem though. A loss in the standings does not overcome a Win or a percentage of a Win in WAR later on. That L in the loss column is never going to go away.

But Sanchez was not the only one. Greg Bird, who supposedly is a "different" hitter this year, was "rested" as was Troy Tulowitzki. Instead, Tyler Wade, Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman got to play. Until proven otherwise, they are Triple-A or even Four-A batters. . And, of course, we cannot forget to combine them with Austin Romine.

So you take a team like the Detroit Tigers, a team that will most likely lose 90+ games this season. And you field a lineup that makes you very similar to the Tigers on the field. Nice. Good move. What a joke.

And then you have the bottom of the ninth and you are trailing, 3-1, because your lineup cannot produce anything with those players and with only one chance left in the game, you let both Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman bat!? Incredible.

The goal of analytics should be to make sure your team has the best chance to win. If the decisions are counter-productive to that goal, then there is a problem. Rest a player once in a while. Personally, I do not think it is necessary. But please, for gosh sakes, do not rest them all at the same freakin' time! Despite what your logic tells you, the Yankees are never going to get this loss back.

Yankees May Get Plenty Of Rest In The Playoffs

Nowadays, if a person was to question any of the landslide of decisions being made by a team's analytical department, that person would be considered "Old School" or out of touch. I support and appreciate many of today's new numbers. They do help in understanding things. I have spent a fan's life with a love of box scores and for poring over statistics.  But some still seem counter-intuitive to me. Resting position players is one of them.

I have always written as a fan with a typewriter. The Yankees have always been my team. I am a fan of all things baseball, but the Yankees are deep, deep in my blood and my DNA. The first 77 games of the 2018 season were probably the most fun I have had watching the Yanks in over fifty years of doing so. Why the first 77 games? It was the last game the Yankees were in first place. The team's record was 52-25. With all the young players and the addition of Giancarlo Stanton overcame the concern of the lousy starts by Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird and Sonny Gray.

Since that point, the Yankees have only gone 39-33 and they are 6-8 in September. When they do not hit multiple homers, they cannot score, the pitching has been inconsistent and sometimes the focus seems to come and go. The team does not seem to have a valid plan against the pitcher they are facing. Rather, they stick to their own batting agenda. Those are all observations, so take them or leave them.

The one thing that has rankled more than anything is the emphasis on resting position players. A fan tunes into a game and Aaron Hicks is not playing or Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar. If I am not mistaken, those three are the most versatile hitters on the team. Two of them are incredibly young. What is that fan to think?

The first question is: How much rest does a really young player need? The second is: How do you create statistical wins when a game can be lost because one of those three are being rested? Is a statistical win more critical than an actual one?

Let's take the most recent such events. The Yankees had what seemed like a soft spot on their schedule. They played teams like the Twins, Tigers, Blue Jays, etc. This soft spot was in front of the last two weeks that were going to feature a bunch of games against the Red Sox and Rays, both teams that are tough to beat. You would like to have your foot full on the throttle for those games, right?

The period starts right after the Orioles series that the Yankees swept to start the stretch off on the right foot. Next came the White Sox (beginning August 27). The Yankees were short-handed without Didi Gregorius and Andrew McCutchen was not there yet. So the team can be forgiven for DHing Andujar and starting Walker. But they lost two of three.

Then it was on to Detroit, another bad team that had purged its best players. Shane Robinson started in right field and Kyle Higoshioka was behind the plate. Dillon Betances blew a save in a game where he faced left-handed batters in the bottom of the ninth and Zach Britton faced the right-handed ones in the eighth. Bizarre. They went on to split that series, 2-2.

They had a critical three-game series in Oakland. They lost the first game and won the second. In the third game, Miguel Andujar was "rested." The Yankees lost that one and only managed five hits. What everyone will remember is how badly Luis Severino and Gary Sanchez worked together that game. A little offense might have helped, especially in the first inning when they loaded the bases and were a hit away from popping Mike Fiers.

They Yankees won the first two games of a series in Seattle. Then they lost the third one. Andujar was again riding the pines and Didi, though back, was not allowed to start and only pinch hit as his replacement went 0-3.

It was on to Minnesota and the Yankees won the first game. But Sonny Gray was given a start and it did not go well. Brett Gardner was given a day off and Stanton played left. There was one play Stanton could not make that Gardner would have cleaned up that had a lot to do with the runs the Twins piled up--as did a passed ball by Austin Romine who had to play because Gray was pitching. Jonathan Loaisiga should have started the game. Brett Gardner should have started that game. Gardner again did not start the last game which the Yankees also lost. Sitting Gardner meant sitting a player who had seen the starter, Jake Odorizzi more than any other Yankee.

Finally, the team came home to face the Blue Jays. They won the first game easily, 11-0. The rest of the series was awful. Andujar again (!) did not start on Saturday. He did hit a grand slam pinch hitting later in the game. But perhaps, if he had come up in the bottom of the second when the Yankees had bases loaded and no outs, he would have fared better than a Neil Walker strikeout (followed by two more strikeouts). Say Andujar kept the rally going and pushed across a couple of runs, the Yankees would have made different pitching decisions and not let the game get out of hand.

Dillon Betances blew the save plain and simple in the last game. But the Yankees only scored two runs and Neil Walker came up in the ninth and flied out deep (I'll give him that) because the Yankees had removed Andujar for defensive purposes.

The last one listed, that second Blue Jays game was so not understandable. The Yankees had just had a day off the previous Thursday and had another one coming on Monday after the series. Again, how much rest does a player need?

What this does is defy a sense of urgency. The Oakland A's are breathing down the Yanks' collective necks for home field advantage for the Wild Card Game. The Yankees are one for 2017 and 2018 (combined) at Oakland. Every game needs to be played to the max for the rest of the season. But how do you create that mental image in a player's (and the fans') mind when resting people is more important than winning? There is no science that can measure the psychology such decisions create in players.

Perhaps I am a big old school. Why do teams like the Yankees mess around and have Aaron Judge get his toes wet for a week before letting him hit in a live game? Why is Aroldis Chapman throwing simulated games when Betances has blown two games in the past week? Again, where is the urgency? The Yankees urgently need to play the Wild Card Game at home. And even then, they could go home after one game if they lose.

The Yankees have bought into the idea that players need regular rest. It is an idea that has full sway in MLB team analytical offices. Joel Sherman was quoted in this Mike Axisa article that Theo Epstein, AKA, "The Brilliant One," said that a player getting 650 plate appearances was "passe" and 500 was plenty. What!? You are going to take thirty games of Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, etc., away from their respective teams!? It is absurd. It is also unfair to the paying fans not to see the best players on the field. I am not buying this one. Throw rocks. Call me Gramps. That's fine. But it is absurd.

This season could have been so much more. You can blame it on injuries. Every contending team has had injuries, so I do not want to hear that excuse. I said before the season (on another site) that the Red Sox made the best managerial decision and the Yankees did not. I still believe that. Joe Girardi was fired because he tried to create too much urgency. Aaron Boone does not create enough. I know where Girardi got the team last year. We'll see what happens this.