Yankees Miss Jugular

The New York Yankees won the first two games in their series against the Tampa Bay Rays and built their largest lead of the year in the division. They lost a tough game on Saturday on a walk-off homer. Hey, that happens. The team still had a chance of leaving that house of horrors called, Tropicana Field, of taking three of four games. Instead, Aaron Boone said it was a good time to rest his two most reliable and versatile hitters (and All Stars), DJ LaMahieu and Gleyber Torres. The Yankees scored one run against Charlie Morton and settled for a split. Instead of stepping on the Rays' jugular, the Yankees stuck to their every game is not important way of life.

I should be ecstatic with the lead the Yankees have in the division considering all the injuries the team suffered over the first half of the season (and continue to have). I should feel good about where the team is heading into the break. The team's place in the standings beats my expectations and hopes to this point. I should be grateful, right?

I would be more grateful if the Yankees' manager and staff (and those analytic squad-mates) had more of a killer instinct. I keep going back to my lack of understanding of the value of rest when a game is lost in the process. In theory, the rested player will perform at a higher level and be worth a few more percentage points in Wins Above Replacement from being rested. What I do not get is how hypothetical "wins" are more important than actual wins.

The counter argument would be: Can you guarantee that the Yankees would have won against Morton if DJLM and Gleyber played the game? Of course not. That said, I still think the odds of winning would have been far greater. The value of DJLM and Gleyber Torres is that they are versatile hitters. Those are the types of hitters needed against an ace like Charlie Morton. Without BOTH in the lineup, the Yankees are basically full of three-outcome batters (walk, strikeout, homer). A pitcher like Morton can fully exploit a lineup like that just as Morton did with one run and a gazillion strikeouts.

 Aaron Boone said that he felt that both needed a break as the team leaned on them heavily during the first half. How heavy is heavily? Both DJLM and Gleyber Torres have played in 81 of the Yankees' 88 games. They each now have seven days off to this point in the season. That does not sound overworked to me. Gleyber Torres is 23-years-old. Brett Gardner has played 83 games thus far. He is the older veteran.  Cody Bellenger is also 23 and has played in 88 of the Dodgers' 91 games. Max Muncy is closer to LeMahieu's age and has played 89.

One could also make a point that Torres and LeMahieu will not get a normal break like the others because of the All Star Game and have to travel to Cleveland. Oh boohoo! Mike Trout played Sunday as did Bellinger. Both are the best players in their respective leagues and have to travel further away from and to home for the All Star Game than any of the Yankees' players.

I do not advocate the Billy Martin way of playing his players and his pitchers until they dropped. Boone is observant enough to see the signs that a player needs a day. But this feels all too programmed and, at the same time, illogical. All I know is that the Yankees allowed the Rays to get two games closer and keep their hopes alive and, more importantly, allowed the Red Sox to creep two games closer instead of being buried in a deeper hole come the All Star Break. AND, it hurt them in the "best record in the AL" department.

The Yankees are in a tough division that is far from decided. Injuries still present problems and question marks. Pitching is still a bit of problem. The Yankees need to present the best possible lineup on the field. That means having versatile hitters interspersed with the boppers who sometimes deliver and sometimes do not. I should be happy. And I am. But I would be happier if this team had more of a killer instinct.

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: October 5, 2014

This is getting downright silly. I cannot pick a playoff game to save myself. Two more incorrect calls and one took eighteen innings to put me there. When the post season started, my hope was that I wouldn't get eleven picks wrong total because I did not want my season incorrect total to reach 1,100. How laughable is that now that I have picked eight of ten post season games incorrectly?

I am going to fault Matt Williams for one of them. I mean, who would you rather face with two outs in the ninth inning holding a 1-0 lead with a man on first, Jordan Zimmermann, who got you there, or any relief pitcher? So what if it was Buster Posey? Williams should not have listened to the "book" there just because Zimmermann had just hit 100 pitches and had given up a hit to Posey prior in the game. Have some faith, man!

There is more second guessing to go around. What about the Nats' approach to hitting Tim Hudson? Give Hudson credit, he willed his way to bring back some old magic, but still, hit the ball up the middle and the other way on a soft toss guy. Nope. And why pitch to Brandon Belt in the 18th? Brandon Crawford was next and he hadn't gotten close to a hit all day.

Oh well, perhaps the most talented team in the National League is now nearly toast. And we get the every-other-year magic of the Giants instead. And how do you feel now TBS and MLB after your insistence on putting the game on later in the day and then having to go until after midnight on the East Coast to figure out who was going to win? That will teach you and it serves you right.

I didn't mind so much getting the Dodgers - Cardinals game wrong. Those were two great starters and either one of them could have succeeded.

It's all ALDS today. So here are my (sure to be incorrect) picks:

• The Tigers over the Orioles: I'm afraid to make any pick at the moment. Talk about gun shy. Anyway, if you have to choose between David Price and Bud Norris, wouldn't you always take David Price? Plus, the Tigers are at home which will help them. My reservations? Price only pitched once against the Orioles this year and it did not go well. The Orioles can hit just about anybody.

• The Royals over the Angels: The most improbable of the winners will finish the sweep. I think. C.J. Wilson is 1-5 in his post season career and has not pitched well. His one win did come in an ALDS however. But I don't see it. James Shields worries me though. He'll either be Big Game James, something I have never bought by the way, or he'll give up two or three homers. Mike Trout has been totally absent. Will he wake up today? I can feel another 0-2 today. Ugh.

Yesterday: 0-2, Post Season: 2-8, Season: 1367-1098

Flipping the Marlon Byrd revisited

Yesterday I wrote about Marlon Byrd and the fact that he did something no other player has ever done before by striking out 150 times more than he walked. I did mention that Byrd did have a good offensive season. But my over-arching point was that he could have done better sans the strikeouts. That post was syndicated by It's About the Money, the other site I write for. And one of my favorite commenters had this to say: "Mike Trout struck out 101 times more than he walked. Somehow I doubt the Angels are getting their underwear in a twist over that." Interesting point. Let's look at it for a second.

Certainly Mike Trout had an MVP season. I cannot imagine him not winning the award this season. The Angels also ended up with the best record in the Major Leagues, so, no, the Angels do not have much to complain about. Trout led the league in runs batted in and runs scored. According to all of that, the Angels should be ecstatic. But that doesn't mean the Angels aren't worried about the strikeouts.

My difficulty with the comment is that just because Mike Trout was the bomb again this year for the third straight year of brilliance on the field, it doesn't mean he could not have been better. The comment comes with certain assumptions.

The first assumption is that Trout's season was good enough just as it was. And I cannot argue that point. It was good enough to garner him an MVP and it was good enough for the Angels to be the best team in baseball during the regular season. But the assumption is also wrong because as scary as this sounds, Trout could have been much better with, say, a hundred less strikeouts.

The second assumption is that the sudden jump in strikeouts for Trout is not a concern. I totally disagree there. When his strikeout rate the previous two seasons were 21.8% and 19% respectively, then jumping to 26.1% is a big concern. The problem I am having is that his plate discipline and swinging strike rates did not change much from his previous two seasons. That said, it could be just a fluke and he will return to his normal rate of the previous two seasons. But what if it wasn't?

Let's say this new strikeout rate is the new norm for Trout moving forward. It will impact things for Trout and for the Angels in future years when the Angels have to fight more for the post season and Trout has other competition for post season awards. Trout winning the MVP with a .939 OPS will be the third lowest OPS to win the award since 2000. He will have challengers in the years ahead.

My contention is still that as good as Trout was in 2014, it could have been better with less strikeouts and more contact. Most people assume that power hitters would not hit more homers with less strikeouts and that strikeouts are the trade off for the power. I just don't buy that. If a power hitter makes contact and puts more balls in play, then the power numbers will not go down and would probably go up even higher.

Stating anything else would be to assume that being defensive with two strikes would lead to weaker contact and not more homers. Again, I am not biting. Mike Trout did hit 14 of his homers with two strikes. But surely (please don't call me Shirley) if Trout put the ball in play eighty to a hundred more times a few more would go over the fence.

And even if it didn't, with the BABIP being pretty well established at .291 for the Major Leagues with two strikes, Trout's OPS would be closer to one with 25 to 29 more hits that would result in putting the ball in play.

I realize that I am flying in the face of the "an out is an out" crowd made up of really smart people. I cannot let go of the idea that such outs are not equal. A strikeout leaves no possibility of getting on base. A batted ball will always lead to a 30% chance of getting on base. As good as Mike Trout was in 2014, it was not as good as his 2012 and 2013 seasons and the strikeouts were the number one reason.

The over/under of PECOTA's top 15 players

I love projections. I fully understand that they are simply computer-generated predictors based on past performance and current playing factors. I also fully understand that they are somewhat helpful to fantasy baseball players. But projections are not perfect and never have been.

I do not have a favorite projection system. I may like ZiPs a little more because I follow the guy on Twitter and he is personable. But they all have their place and some are more conservative than others.

PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus' proprietary system and it tends to be conservative. I found their top fifteen position player projections very interesting. As such, I wanted to spend some time with these fifteen players and give you an over/under on whether PECOTA was too conservative or not. Too conservative is an over vote. Not conservative enough is an under vote. I will give you the player, the projected triple slash line, WAR(P) and then a justification of over or under. Here we go.

15 - Evan Longoria - .261/.350/.480  4.3 WARP: This is very conservative, so over. I don't have too much of a problem with the triple slash line as they are near to what Longoria did last year. But I consider Longoria's season a year ago to be disappointing on the offensive side. I think he will be better. And his fielding puts him over six WAR easily.

14 - Joe Mauer - .315/.402/.456  4.4 WARP: These numbers are all under his career averages and he beat each of them last year. Playing first base will free him up physically and as I wrote a few days ago, I think that will lead to bigger offensive numbers and make up for his loss of positional value by moving to the dead zone of first base. Over.

13 - Matt Kemp - .282/.344/.486  4.5 WARP: PECOTA must be still smoking whatever Kemp was having back in 2011. Of all the systems I have looked at, this is the most optimistic version of Matt Kemp of all of them. Unless proven otherwise, the 2011 Matt Kemp is gone for good in a haze of shoulder troubles. Under.

10 - Prince Fielder - .285/.393/.518  4.7 WARP: All the systems are conservative on Fielder, which is odd considering that he is moving from one of the toughest stadiums on hitters to one of the best. PECOTA is more optimistic than all the others for the big first baseman but still only projects him to hit 33 homers. Based on an albeit small sample size, I think he will hit 20 homers at home and 13 on the road should be a piece of cake. All Fielder has to do is get back to where he was in 2012 to beat this projection. Over.

10 - Andrew McCutchen - .278/.358/.465  4.7 WARP: This is probably the easiest one of the bunch. McCutchen has beaten these numbers in each of the last two seasons. Barring injury (knocking wood), he should breeze by these numbers. My only concern is if the Pirates fall back to a non-contention team. Over.

10 - Buster Posey - .294/.367/.466  4.7 WARP: Projecting a catcher is always problematic because so much depends on dings and dents accumulated over the season. All you have to do is look at the wild swing of Posey's fWAR numbers over the last four seasons to see what I mean: 3.9, 1.7, 7.7 and 4.8. PECOTA pegs Posey right around his numbers for last year, which I considered a bit of a down year for him. If he bounces back at all to somewhat near what he did in 2012, he will blow past these numbers. But again, for a catcher, this is a crap shoot at best. Over.

7 - Robinson Cano - .293/.343/.490  4.9 WARP: PECOTA is really expecting Safeco Field and the lack of protection in the lineup to mess with Cano. But let's look at it this way: In forty games played at that field, Cano has a .837 OPS, which is four points higher than this projection. All Cano has to do to blow away this projection is to do better on the road. Cano has batted over .300 in six of his last seven seasons including the last five in a row. His OBP has been 35 to 40 points higher than this for the last two seasons. And he has been over .500 slugging for five straight seasons. Yeah, Safeco will dampen him a bit, but come on. Over.

7 - Adrian Gonzalez - .286/.366/.485  4.9 WARP: Perhaps I have to admit my bias here. I really can't stand Adrian Gonzalez. There is no rhyme or reason for my antipathy, but there is. Even so, this is overly optimistic. Gonzalez's fWAR figures the last two seasons were 3.3 and 2.8. That is hardly close to 4.9. PECOTA has him hitting 28 homers. Not a chance. Under. But I am biased.

7 - Giancarlo Stanton - .267/.345/.546  4.9 WARP: Every projection system expects Stanton to have a monster season. The average projection for him is 5 WAR and 35 homers or more PECOTA has him at 40 homers. There are two things that concern me. First, pitchers have stopped pitching to him, second he strikes out too much and lastly, he cannot stay on the field for 150 games. I see only a chance for one of those three things to change. Under.

6 - Mike Trout - .288/.354/.467   5.2 WARP: Are you kidding me? Over. Easily. The Angels are going to have a better year and that can only help Trout. Over. Over. Over.

5 - Troy Tulowitzki - .298/.369/.524   5.4 WARP: One of these years, Tulowitzki is going to play 150 games or more. And if he does, these numbers will look puny. He is the best overall shortstop in the game, who unfortunately, cannot seem to get a full season in. I am going out on a limb here and saying that this is the year. Over.

3 - Miguel Cabrera - .313/.392/.560  5.7 WARP: Duh. Over. He will miss Prince Fielder, but the guy has murdered these numbers for years now.

3 - Ryan Braun - .302/.364/.544  5.7 WARP: Would you really say Ryan Braun in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera? No, but he has put up these kinds of numbers regularly. But how will he react after last year's fiasco? What will it be like with all that pressure to show he is that good without the drugs? I think this is 50/50. But I'm going under.

2 - Joey Votto - .299/.400/.531  5.9 WARP: The final OPS number is similar to what Votto put up last year. His on-base percentage was much higher, but his slugging was lower. I really don't understand the knock on him that Reds fans have of the guy. He is a great hitter. All that said, last year seemed like a down year for him when he did put the bat on the ball, though his BABIP was right in range with his career average. I don't know. The guy seems like a lock to get at least 5.9 WARP, but I am not real sold on the lineup around him. Under.

1 - Albert Pujols - .296/.382/.548  6.9 WARP: Surprise! I bet you wouldn't guess this in a million years. Not only does PECOTA project Pujols as the top WARP guy in baseball, but by a win! Wow. Pujols hasn't had a WAR this high since 2010. He is older. He is not the guy anymore. The guy now is Cabrera. Pujols isn't even the best player on his team. That would be Mike Trout. But...what if his struggles the last three years were because of his legs? What if that was fixed now and he has his base back under him. The guy was the superstar of superstars. He was better than Cabrera during his peak. What if, for one magical season, we see the Albert Pujols of old with a monster year? It could happen. Will it? I would not bet real money on it. But it is in the realm of possibility. Just ask the computer. Well...ask PECOTA's computer as no other projection system has him close to these numbers.

The awards season is over - How did I do?

Now that the MVPs have been announced and Twitter has been through a day of name-calling ("Stupid" and "Moron" the most common), we have our full slate of awards for the season. I wanted to take a second to look back at my choices and see how I came out next to the BBWAA and the BBA. So I took a look at my picks and all in all, there was not a whole lot of disagreement.

The BBA differed from the BBWAA in two areas. The BBA had John Farrell for its best manager in the American League for 2013 and had Mike Trout as the best player in the American League. I differed from both organizations on two accounts each, which is sort of weird.

I had Yasiel Puig as my rookie in the National League and I had Mike Trout as the best AL player. But my manager picks both agreed with the BBWAA manager picks. Both the BBWAA and BBA had Jose Fernandez as the NL's best rookie so there was a disconnect for me with both organizations. I differed on Trout with the BBWAA and on Farrell with the BBA.

There was some division caused by the NL rookie voting, but nothing like the vitriol caused by the Trout versus Miguel Cabrera camps. The passion displayed by both sides is really heated and frankly, I find the name-calling distasteful. There is some disconnect out there on how to rate players that many have dubbed an old-school versus new-school debate.

That is unfortunate because it is divisive. Yes, Trout has not received the ultimate recognition but he did win the Silver Slugger Award and came in second in the BBWAA voting, so that is hardly sheep dip. I believe he is the best player in the American League for the second season in a row. But the fact is that 99.8% of those who voted in either organization do so because they write about a sport they love. There are simply some who disagree on how to value players and what is important in doing so.

There is one area of agreement and that is that Miguel Cabrera is the best offensive player of this generation. He might even be the best hitter I have seen in my lifetime. So the arguments have been about the best pure hitter in baseball versus the best all-around player in the game today. I worry a bit about Cabrera's rise in slugging since 2010 because of the times we live in and I have not forgotten his alcohol-related incidents earlier in his career. I still consider those egregious and thought he got a pass by baseball.

But those are side issues and do not take away the greatness of his offensive exploits. I find the argument an interesting one on how to value Cabrera versus Trout. I just hate the name calling.

We have our awards and we have our winners. They are etched in stone for the rest of baseball immortality. Debates about the winners have been going on forever. The tone is just different. I am glad my choices were made and stick with them and am somewhat pleased that I was dead on in most of them. Of course, neither the BBA or the BBWAA have come around to adopting the Dan Meyer and Kyle Davies Awards. That is there problem. Heh.

Pitcher thinks somebody is going to catch Mike Trout's 454 foot homer

The Angels slowed down the Oakland Athletics' march toward the division title for one game as they blew out Jarrod Parker and others for a 12-1 drubbing. As usually happens in blowouts in September with expanded rosters, a young pitcher is put in the game to get some experience. Thus, Pedro Figueroa (who is not exactly young at 27) was given a chance to pitch some Major League innings. Then he ran into Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo.

The highlights of the inning focus on how far Mike Trout hit his home run. ESPN tracked it at 454 feet. Watch this highlight and see how all of the replays of Trout's bomb focus on how far it went. My focus went to Figueroa and what I saw made me guffaw out loud.

As soon as Trout hits the ball, Figueroa points up at it in the universal baseball body language of, "there it is, catch it." Perhaps they do not hit the ball that far in the minors. Perhaps he is unaware of who Mike Trout is. Perhaps he misread the sound of the ball off the bat. But point all he would, nobody was catching that ball. Take a look (if the embedded file works).

Hysterical.

Apparently, Figueroa can learn from his mistakes. A few batters later, Mark Trumbo hit another bomb and Figueroa's hand started going up and immediately thought better of it. Either way, giving up 854 feet worth of homers is not a fun way to get some experience.

Note: It looks like MLB.com's lovely embed code is not working. See it here. Der

Mike Trout by the (MVP) numbers

Last season, Mike Trout took the world by storm and became the most talked about player in baseball. Sadly, this season, he is even better but plays on a severely disappointing team and has fallen away somewhat as a conversation leader. By the end of the season, he will bring up once again the age old debate on if an Most Valuable Player Award should go to a player on an awful team. Because of his team, he might lose out on the award he deserves for the second straight season.

To illustrate the point, I am simply going to give you some numbers to give you an idea of how special Mike Trout has been. Here are a bunch of numbers and his corresponding rank in baseball based on them:

• WAR - 7.6 rWAR, 7.3 fWAR: First in baseball either way
• wOBA - .424: Third
• Slugging - .574: Fifth
• OBP - .424: Third
• BA - .331: Third
• OPS - .998: Third
• wRC - 101: Second
• Doubles - 32: Third
• Hits - 143: First
• Walks - 67: Third
• Extra base hits - 59: Second
• Runs - 79: Tied for Second
• WPA - 3.40: Seventh
• Base running runs - 6.3: Fourth
• Stolen bases - 24: Tenth
• ISO - .243: Tenth

As you can see by the numbers, Mike Trout can do it all. His fielding numbers have fallen off a bit, but otherwise, Mike Trout is the best overall player in the game this year. Now if only the Angels could get some pitching...