ERA as a Case for Sabermetrics

Statistics have always been one large draw of the game. They have been faithfully kept, poured over from the backs of baseball cards and in the back of the Sporting News in the old days to fantastic databases on-line. The traditional way of looking at statistics has always been static. In other words, the numbers are compared the same over generations as if the game has been played in a vacuum. The only exception to this has been the "Dead Ball Era" and the "Live Ball Era" as a breaking point in relative statistics. This, of course, has changed dramatically with the advent of what we generally call, "Sabermetrics." The basic underlying principle in all of these new statistics is that the game is not static nor has it been played in a vacuum. Stadiums vary, years vary, rules change, wars interfere, expansion happens and so forth. While there are a million things to talk about here, let's just use one statistic, ERA, as an example why these numbers are important.

In one generation, a pitcher might toil for sixteen years or so and compile a 3.80 ERA over that career. In the traditional way of looking at statistics, this pitcher is compared to another pitcher of a different generation who compiled a lifetime ERA of 2.80. The natural and traditional assumption is that the first pitcher wasn't nearly as good as the second. But what if the league ERA for the years the first pitcher toiled was 3.95 and the second pitcher pitched in a generation that averaged a 2.70 ERA? Doesn't that change things?

The traditional way of looking at things assumes that the game has always been played the same way under the same conditions and that the two ERAs of the two pitchers are apples and apples. That would assume that ERA has always been around the same. But it hasn't. As the charts below indicate, the league ERA figures have varied greatly over the years. For example, the average National League team scored 4.04 runs per game in 1968. But in 1970, that figure increased to 4.52 runs per game. In 2000, that figure was all the way up to 5.0 runs per game.

That may not seem like a whole lot of difference, but over the course of 162 games for each team, the difference is huge. It is just as huge as going from the Dead Ball Era to the Live Ball Era when 96 total home runs were hit in the American League for the entire year compared to 240 in 1919 and 525 in 1922.

The two leagues have also had very few years where the league ERA was in the same ballpark. So, for example, how can you compare Greg Maddux to Roger Clemens over their careers without taking into account the differences in the league ERA figures? And the same has to hold true for the different ballparks they pitched in. In order to come close to any kind of comparison, you have to have a way to factor in differences in league ERA, ballpark factors, rules differences (DH for example).

Okay, say you have a pitcher who pitched for a long time for the Houston Astros. During the first half of his career, he pitched in the Astrodome which was a huge disadvantage for hitters and then pitched the second half of his career in the Astros' new park which is much more favorable to the hitter. Don't you have to factor in the ballpark differences to evaluate the pitcher's effectiveness over his entire career. If you simply look at ERA as a static number, then the pitcher might have had an ERA of 3.30 in the Astrodome years and 3.75 in the new park. In actuality, those two figures might be similar in effectiveness if you take the park into account.

The Fan isn't going to get into the math because he is still trying to figure it out. But the logic makes sense that in the mid to late 1960s when an average team batting average was .235, a player like Yaz who led the league in batting one year by hitting .298 or something had just as good a year as a Tony Gwynn who batted .332 in a year when the average team batting average was .270. So these new numbers are very important to evaluate players not only today, but in retrospect to the past. That's why you have so many debates about the Hall of Fame now. We now have ways of putting careers into their proper perspective that we have never had before.

The ERA is just one stat that has fluctuated greatly over the years and from league to league. There is no way that the traditional way of looking at statistics can remain valid when comparing the value of players from year to year, from stadium to stadium, from league to league when they change so dramatically over time.

• 
  Year NL AL
  1901 3.32 3.66
  1902 2.78 3.57
  1903 3.26 2.96
  1904 2.73 2.60
  1905 2.99 2.65
  1906 2.62 2.69
  1907 2.46 2.54
  1908 2.34 2.39
  1909 2.59 2.47
  1910 3.02 2.52
  1911 3.39 3.34
  1912 3.40 3.34
  1913 3.19 2.93
  1914 2.79 2.73
  1915 2.75 2.93
  1916 2.61 2.82
  1917 2.71 2.66
  1918 2.76 2.77
  1919 2.91 3.22
  1920 3.13 3.79
  1921 3.78 4.28
  1922 4.10 4.03
  1923 3.99 3.98
  1924 3.87 4.23
  1925 4.26 4.39
  1926 3.83 4.02
  1927 3.91 4.14
  1928 3.99 4.04
  1929 4.71 4.24
  1930 4.97 4.64
  1931 3.86 4.38
  1932 3.88 4.48
  1933 3.33 4.28
  1934 4.06 4.50
  1935 4.02 4.46
  1936 4.02 5.04
  1937 3.91 4.62
  1938 3.78 4.79
  1939 3.92 4.62
  1940 3.85 4.38
  1941 3.63 4.15
  1942 3.31 3.66
  1943 3.38 3.30
  1944 3.61 3.43
  1945 3.80 3.36
  1946 3.41 3.50
  1947 4.06 3.71
  1948 3.95 4.29
  1949 4.04 4.20
  1950 4.14 4.58
  1951 3.96 4.12
  1952 3.73 3.67
  1953 4.29 3.99
  1954 4.06 3.72
  1955 4.04 3.96
  1956 3.77 4.16
  1957 3.88 3.79
  1958 3.95 3.77
  1959 3.95 3.86
  1960 3.76 3.87
  1961 4.03 4.02
  1962 3.94 3.97
  1963 3.29 3.63
  1964 3.53 3.63
  1965 3.54 3.46
  1966 3.60 3.43
  1967 3.37 3.23
  1968 2.99 2.98
  1969 3.60 3.62
  1970 4.05 3.71
  1971 3.46 3.46
  1972 3.45 3.06
  1973 3.66 3.82
  1974 3.62 3.62
  1975 3.62 3.78
  1976 3.50 3.52
  1977 3.91 4.06
  1978 3.57 3.76
  1979 3.73 4.21
  1980 3.60 4.03
  1981 3.49 3.66
  1982 3.60 4.07
  1983 3.63 4.06
  1984 3.59 3.99
  1985 3.59 4.15
  1986 3.72 4.17
  1987 4.08 4.46
  1988 3.45 3.97
  1989 3.49 3.88
  1990 3.79 3.90
  1991 3.68 4.09
  1992 3.50 3.94
  1993 4.04 4.32
  1994 4.22 4.80
  1995 4.18 4.71
  1996 4.22 5.00
  1997 4.21 4.57
  1998 4.24 4.65
  1999 4.56 4.86
  2000 4.63 4.91
  2001 4.36 4.47
  2002 4.11 4.46
  2003 4.28 4.52
  2004 4.30 4.63
  2005 4.22 4.35
  2006 4.49 4.56
  2007 4.43 4.50
  2008 4.30 4.36
  

Musty Old Stats

The Fan will once again state plainly that baseball-reference.com is the greatest gift to baseball fans in history. Not only can you find any kind of stat you are looking for there for any year ever, but you can get lost in stories from long ago. The deep history of baseball and its statistics are one of the major links from generation to generation. And not only does baseball-reference.com have them all, they are free to look at any time night or day.

Josh Borenstein is a generation younger than this blogger and yet his blog is filled with stats from eons past. It's just something that ties baseball fans together. His recent blog on Hank Greenberg led to a pleasant romp through the b-r.com archives for Greenberg's stats. One click led to another and somehow the Fan ended up looking at the stats for Mickey Cochrane in 1930. Don't know how the Fan got there. It was probably wondering how Greenberg did not win the MVP that year. Cochrane did. (He gave his first name to Mickey Mantle by the way. The Mick's father was a big Cochrane fan.)

From there, it wasn't a big leap to looking at the league leaders for 1930. One stat caught the Fan's eye. There was a listing of pitchers with the most losses in 1930. Three of the top five were from the Boston Red Sox. Man! That must have been a really bad team. And those three pitchers? Jack Russell (9-20), Milt Gaston (13-20) and Horace Lisenbee (10-17).

From there it was another click to look at the Red Sox that year. They went 52-102. Yup, that was a bad year. In the honorable mention category, they also had a pitcher named Ed Durham that went 4-15. To show you how times have changed: As bad as that team was, they used thirteen pitchers all year. That's it. Thirteen.

1930 was just one year in a really bad stretch for the Red Sox as a franchise. The post Ruth years, after they traded their biggest star to the Yankees, were brutal. Here is a particularly tough run year by year:

• 1926 - 46-107
• 1927 - 51-103
• 1928 - 57-96
• 1929 - 58-96
• 1930 - 52-102
• 1931 - 62-90
• 1932 - 43-111

Every year during that run, the team gave up over 800 runs and their run differential was -175 or worse. Yup. That's a bad stretch. And those three pitchers mentioned earlier? They weren't with the team for that entire period, but when they were, here is how they fared:

• Jack Russell - 46-98 (he finished 85-141 over a 14 year career)
• Milt Gaston - 27-52 (he finished 97-164 for his career). He also lived to be 100 years old so he didn't lose much sleep over his years in baseball.
• Horace "Hod" Lisenbee - 15-33

Now where else but baseball can you have this much fun looking at statistics? And how much fun is it that we have www.baseball-reference.com there for us to romp around in their playground for free?

Anybody Want a Cheap but Terrible Pitcher?

The Philadelphia Phillies finally gave up on Adam Eaton on Friday and released the pitcher even though it will mean they are on the hook for his $9 million this year. This means that anyone can pick him up for the $400,000 league minimum.

The Eaton signing was one of the worst in recent years. The Phillies signed Eaton as a free agent and gave him a three year contract worth $24 million. For their hard earned cash, the Phillies got a pitcher who went 14-18 with an abominable 6.10 ERA over the last two seasons.
In frustration, the Phillies sent him to the minor leagues last year and he couldn't even get minor leaguers out. Down there, he was 0-7 with an ERA over 7!

It's hard to understand why the Phillies would have signed him in the first place for that kind of money. He had just finished an injury riddled year (which can be said about most Eaton years as he has never thrown 200 innings in a season despite being a starter) with Texas and compiled 5.12 ERA with 102 base runners in 68 innings of work. You give a guy like that a three year contract at 24 mil? Dumb.

Oh well, give the team credit for taking the hard way out and eating the contract instead of burdening their team for another season faced with Adam's curse.

The Week's Transaction Wire

This was a week for the one year contract as dozens of players signed. Most of these guys are not arbitration eligible and under team control during the early part of a young career. To be sure, a couple of older guys made it in there too. Here is a quick run through:

- The Phillies are Eaton a lot of money by dumping Adam, but felt they had no choice in releasing the beleaguered pitcher.

- The Padres used Friday to become the assembly line of all transaction situations as they signed 29 players in one day. Among them:

• Seung Baek went Cha ching!
• They asked Mark to give it another Worrell.
• They told Wade to sign on the LeBlanc line.
• They asked Jose to carry the Lobaton for another year.
• They gave Cabrera an A for Everth.
• They gave Luis enough to buy a Durango.
• They are not expecting Ivan Nova to flame out.
• Drew Macias said gracias.
• Denker said Danka.
• They signed Hampson Justin case they need him.
• And Will is almost old enough to be Veneble.

- On other teams, the Brewers gave Manny a contract that was on Parra with the one that Chase Wright got.

- The Brewers infield is not so Inbarren after they signed Hernan.

- The Rangers had a big day on Wednesday as they signed ten players. Among them:

• They hope Warner has a Madrigal season.
• They told Taylor that they never promised him a Teagarden, so he took what he could get.
• German Duran Duran won't be Hungry Like a Wolf after signing his contract.
• And oh my Josh! Hamilton only got a one year contract!?

- Over in Atlanta, Anderson was relieved that the Braves wanted him and that his career was not yet Garreted.

- The Tigers and Freddy did the Dolsi Doh after agreeing on a contract.

- Two guys are trying to hide their Ohio heritage as Dana Eveland and Brent Clevlen both signed this week.

- Scott Stapp will be happy that Joe Crede signed with the Twins.

- A new contract with Oakland got Kurt Suzuki's motor running.

- Donovan will be happy to note that Texas signed their Eric Hurley Gurly man. And when reporters are looking for the pitcher after a tough outing, the team trainer will point to the whirlpool room and sing: "Hurley Gurly inside..."

- Oakland got some insurance by signing Gio Gonzalez and the pitcher will be happy too because now he won't have to ride the computer bus.

Well, there you have it--another week's worth of transaction action found only here at the FanDome.

Vida Blue Was Cool

The other day in the FanDome, there was a comment to a Fan post concerning Dontrelle Willis about Willis being this generation's Vida Blue. While the Fan can understand the comparison, and though Willis is loved here in this place, Vida Blue was electric and he was cool. There is no comparison.

Vida Rochelle Blue Jr. of Louisiana was drafted out of high school by the Oakland A's in the second round of the 1967 draft. While Charlie Finley, the eccentric owner of the A's, was famous for making up nicknames for his players for marketing purposes ("Catfish" Hunter, "Blue Moon" Odom and "Mudcat" Grant being three examples). No such moniker was needed for Blue. His name was cool all by itself.

Add the high leg kick and a 100 MPH fastball and a lefty to boot, and you had one very cool and very hot pitcher. He pitched briefly with the A's as a nineteen year old and was knocked around a bit. Then he came up in September in 1970 and one-hit the Royals and ten days later, no-hit the Twins. Not a bad start!

He was so good in 1971 that he became the youngest player to win the MVP award and the Cy Young award. He started 39 games that year as young as he was and finished 24 of them. He threw eight shut outs. He struck out 301 batters in 312 innings. He went 24-8 with a 1.82 ERA. His WHIP that year was 0.92! But he wasn't done. He still had to pitch in the post season and unfortunately for the A's, they ran into a buzz saw in the Championship Series with Baltimore.

At that time, Blue's fastball was rivaled only by Nolan Ryan. Pete Rose said he threw the hardest of anyone he ever faced. But throwing 312 innings as a 21 year old plus the post season wasn't the best thing in the world for Blue. He struggled through the next year and though he won twenty games two more times and 17, 18 and 18 in other seasons, he was never again the same pitcher he was in 1971. He did throw 143 complete games in his career and had 37 shutouts.

Still, he won 206 games in his career, two more as an All Star pitcher and went 17-10 in post season games. He later got caught up in the cocaine scandals of the 1970s, which hurt his reputation. But he got through that and was later known for his generosity with young children and rebuilt his life.

1971 was a thrill ride for all of us that got a chance to peak into it once in a while. Unfortunately, that was before the days of ESPN and daily highlights. But you just had to follow along in the papers and in the Sporting News and you just knew he was real and Vida Blue was cool.

Red Sox Still the Team to Beat

Rob Neyer's blog today revealed Ken Rosenthal and Brian Cashman's take on the Rays chances in 2009. While the Yankees have certainly improved their pitching staff and the Rays have great young players and good pitching and defense, the Red Sox are still the team to beat.

Let's face it, the Red Sox got smarter faster than any team in baseball. The Oakland A's under Billy Beane had a good start on valuing contracts, but his teams didn't quite get there. The Red Sox hired Bill James for crying out loud. They outsmarted everyone else. They had the knack of getting the right pieces at the right time. The Schilling acquisition was brilliant at the time. Mike Lowell worked out really well. David Ortiz was stolen from the Twins.

The Red Sox have become the super power in baseball and out flanked and out foxed the Yankees. They have won two World Series in five years. They have great pitching and more on the way. They have a chemistry that works really well for them. They have the right manager and they have marketed the team better than anyone. As much as "Red Sox Nation" has become as hated in the country as the Yankees, it was a stroke of genius. That's what this team seems to have, a genius in concept and in practice. Is it really fair that New England has that same genius in two different sports?

Before 2004, the Red Sox were the little guys that couldn't. You could have all the Pedro Martinez swagger you wanted, but they couldn't figure out a way around the Yankees. Now the roles have reversed. The Yankees can't out think their rivals so they still have to out spend them. The Yankees are Phil Mickelson and the Red Sox are Tiger Woods. Mickelson has man boobs and the Yankees have men that are boobs.

Yes, the Rays won the division last year and the American League Pennant. That was a wonderful and beautiful story. They caught the Red Sox a little banged up and still in a post-Manny daze. But all it will take is a few Big Papi homers and a couple of those 2-0 wins and the swagger will be where it has been for five years now.

Maybe the Cubs still haven't won a World Series because they didn't have a rivalry like the Yankees/Red Sox. The Red Sox knocked on the door so many times and failed, they had to get smart and they did. It doesn't yet appear that the Cubs have gotten much smarter. Just better. But it hasn't been enough. The Yankees are still paying for years of not being smart.

The Rays will be really good. The Yankees will be really good. But the Red Sox are still the ones to beat.

Reds Make Statement in First Exhibition Game

The Reds made a pretty impressive opening statement in their first exhibition game yesterday. They threw their three best young arms out there in the first game. The results were very good indeed:

• Volquez: 3 2 0 0 1 3 0
• Cueto: 3 0 0 0 1 3 0
• Bailey: 1 0 0 0 0 2 0

Now that's a pretty good opening salvo! Of course, it's just an exhibition game against the current American League Champions. But that had to make folks in Cincinnati feel pretty optimistic.

American League Managers - Who Will Get Fired?

Yesterday at the FanDome we went through the list of National League Managers and rated the probability of whether they would survive the year. Each year sees its share of managers who bite the dust when teams play less than at expected results. Here is the list in alphabetical order in the American League (of teams) along with PECOTA projections and the Fan's less than scientific results:

Dave Trembley - Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are like the Texas Rangers of the Eastern Division. They can rake pretty well, but Jeremy Guthrie is pretty good, but who else is there that can pitch? PECOTA agrees. The system predicts a five game improvement in the Win column, but that still means 88 Losses. PECOTA predicts the Orioles to score 5.14 runs a game, but opponents are predicted to score 5.72 runs a game. Not a good thing there. Despite all that, McPhail, the Orioles' GM is starting to turn the franchise around and he knows it will take time. That said, Trembley will be okay as long as he doesn't lose the players.
Likely to finish season - 95%

Terry Francona - Boston Red Sox
Francona has developed into an icon much like Joe Torre and Bobby Cox. He has the fans' trust and the players'. There probably isn't a manager in baseball (this side of Bobby Cox) that is safer than Francona. Of course, it doesn't hurt to have one of baseball's strongest teams either.
Likely to finish season - 100%

Ozzie Guillen - Chicago White Sox
Brash and sassy, Guillen says what's on his mind and says it often. His GM has his back, but you have to wonder how far. Despite an old team and despite what seemed to be smoke and mirrors, Guillen brought his team in first place last year after a couple of less stellar years. PECOTA sees that as a one hit wonder however and predicts the team will lose 89 games in 2009. Will Guillen lose a cork if his team plays that poorly? Will he say the wrong thing at the wrong time? Will it play as well for a losing club as it does for a winning one? We'll see.
Likely to finish season - 80%

Eric Wedge - Cleveland Indians
Wedge enters his seventh season as manager for the Indians. He seems to have the reputation as one of the sharper managers out there. Despite injuries last year, the team finished strong and ended up at the .500 mark after a very poor start. It might have been a better managing job than when he won Manager of the Year in 2007 when his team finished in first. PECOTA is picking the Indians to finish first in a volatile division and the Fan agrees.
Likely to finish season - 100%

Jim Leyland - Detroit Tigers
Much like Tony La Russa's situation in St. Louis, this managerial seat seems a little slippery. The Tigers were predicted to win their division last year and flopped miserably. But the team still has some talent. But there seems to be too many holes as well. PECOTA predicts a four Win improvement, but that still means 84 losses. Leyland has brought his teams to first place three times and to a World Series. But he also has eight seasons where his teams have finished fifth or worse. Will the Tigers' management support Leyland if that high price team tanks again? Hmmm...
Likely to finish season - 70%

Trey Hillman - Kansas City Royals
The Royals showed flashes of life last year and finished with less than 90 losses for the first time in a while. PECOTA shows only a one Win improvement this year though. The team just doesn't seem to have enough offense. But the Royals like their manager and his job seems safe enough. But anything is fair game if the team opens up with an egg its first month or so.
Likely to finish season - 90%

Mike Scioscia - California Angels
Considered one of the smartest managers in baseball, Scioscia has brought his team to four first place finishes in the last five years. But the fans are getting restless as they continue to lose in the division series. The team won 100 games last year. The Fan isn't sure how. Well, he is. They were 24th in baseball in hitter VORP, but fourth overall in pitcher VORP. Pitching is still the key to success. Though this manager seems safe enough, if the team starts badly and say is in second place in August, the fans might scream loud enough to be heard here.
Likely to finish season - 90%

Ron Gardenhire - Minnesota Twins
It seems sure that Gardenhire isn't going anywhere any time soon. The Twins prefer stability and Gardenhire enters his eighth year after following Tom Kelly's long reign. The Twins made a run last year and fell one playoff game short. This despite losing one of the best pitchers in baseball. The one strange thing here is that the Twins have always stressed defense and yet fell to 19th overall in defensive efficiency last year. PECOTA predicts an eight game regression this year, but even if that happens, Gardenhire will be there at the end of the year.
Likely to finish season - 100%

Joe Girardi - New York Yankees
Whoa! Can't imagine the pressure to win that must be on Girardi. The Yankees have done all they could to give him a great team (on paper at least). If his team tanks, he'll be in a heap of trouble. PECOTA predicts them to win the wildcard behind Boston. For Girardi's sake, that better be right.
Likely to finish season - 80%

Bob Geren - Oakland Athletics
The Fan thinks the Angels are there for the taking and Oakland, if they can get some solid pitching and all those high walk, big power guys produce and not break down, they have a shot. The team addressed its biggest need as they were dead last in hitter's VORP last year. They spent some money to get some boppers, but if they come out of the gate stillborn, Geren will pay.
Likely to finish season - 80%

Don Wakamatsu - Seattle Mariners
Wakamatsu is a total unknown and there is no telling how it will go for him in Seattle. He inherits a bad clubhouse situation that hopefully Griffey can help fix. But nothing is expected of Seattle this year after losing 101 games last year. PECOTA predicts them to improve by 11 games to only lose 90, but that doesn't seem likely. In either case, Wakamatsu won't have any pressure on him with a bad perception already on the team.
Likely to finish season - 95%

Joe Maddon - Tampa Bay Rays
Maddon is golden this year after a surprising first place finish last year. He seemed unflappable and brought a young team through the fire, through the Yankees and then the Red Sox. Quite a feat for a manager who lost 101 games just three years ago. PECOTA predicts a little slippage and a third place finish, but the Rays will be competitive and fun to watch.
Likely to finish season - 100%

Ron Washington - Texas Rangers
This one seems to be the manager most likely to get fired. The Rangers improved by four games last year in the Win column, but the main problem still exists - pitching. Based on pitching (and the fact they lost Milton Bradley), PECOTA predicts the Rangers will slip to last place this year. While it doesn't seem that the Rangers could be worse than Seattle, if PECOTA pulls a Nostradamus here, Washington will not survive.
Likely to finish season - 50%

Cito Gaston - Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays aren't as talented as the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. But if anyone can nurse his pitching staff to overcome limitations in offense, it's Gaston, one of the most underrated managers in MLB history. After replacing John ("Yeah, it was a lie") Gibbons, Gaston took the team to a 51-37 finish last year after an eleven (why??) year absence. The man won two back to back World Series in 1992 and 1993 and his team finished in first three years in a row. It's about time somebody brought him back and it seems right that it was Toronto. The Blue Jays could surprise, but even if the don't, he's good for the year.
Likely to finish season - 100%

There you have it. Ron Washington and Jim Leyland seem the most vulnerable with Joe Girardi playing with fire in New York. Now we will just have to wait and see what happens.

Dontrelle Willis: On the Way Back?

Dontrelle Willis has been one of the most likable players in Major League Baseball. That fact made it painful for fans to watch his decline in 2007 and the utter loss of 2008 after a trade sent him to the Tigers. A story today at MLB.com gives hope that he can be a meaningful pitcher again in the majors.

The thing that attracted fans to Willis was the enjoyment he seemed to have playing baseball. With his hat slightly askew and his high leg kick, he always had an enormous smile on his face. He seemed to be great with the kids and other than his one run in with the law for driving under the influence, he was a very good ambassador for baseball.

And he had some success with the Marlins as well. He won 22 games in 2005 two years after a very successful rookie campaign. Plus, as an added bonus, he was a pretty good hitting pitcher as well and hit 8 homers over the years with the Marlins to go along with a .234 average. But cracks started showing in 2007.

In 2007 he lost 15 of his 25 decisions and his ERA ballooned to 5.17. His walks were way up, his strikeouts down and he gave up 29 homers. The Marlins, sensing trouble, traded away one of their most popular players to Detroit. It was there that disaster struck.

Willis apparently had knee problems, but he couldn't throw a strike to save himself. He only managed to get into eight games and he walked 35 batters in only 25 innings. The Tigers shut him down and the season was lost.

The MLB.com story, though, gives hope that Willis can make it back and be successful again in the majors. Amazingly, Willis is only 27 years old. It seems like he has already been around for a long time, but he is young and if he can physically and mentally make it back, it would be great for all fans of baseball.

National League Managers - A List and Who's Vulnerable

The 2009 season lies before us (this blog is inspired by Obama oratory skills) as a blank canvas ready for the grand splashing of paint. Like some overpaid and overemphasized modern painter or the preschooler who does the same kind of work in exactly the same way, there will be a randomness of events that fill the season with some unexpected turns and twists which even the most gifted mathematician cannot predict, that will splash colors on this blank canvas which won't be completed until the final out of the World Series (top THAT sentence, Mr. President!). Along the way, some of these unexpected (and expected) events could spell the end of a major league manager's current tenure (or two or three). Here is a complete National League list and a non-mathematical gut judgement on who will make it to the end of the season and who won't.

Bob Melvin - Arizona Diamondbacks
Melvin is in his fifth year of managing the Diamondbacks. After an amazing run in 2007, the Diamondbacks opened a big lead in 2008 only to fall back hard to finish 82-80 last year.
PECOTA predicts a first place finish with 92 wins. It seems a lot will have to go right to get to that win total. If the team finishes ten wins less than that prediction, Melvin could be vulnerable. Finishes the year - 95%

Bobby Cox - Atlanta Braves
Cox, now sixty-eight, is an institution in Atlanta and one of the most beloved of all managers. Though the Braves are retooling, Cox won't be going anywhere. The Braves struggled to a 90 loss season last year. PECOTA predicts a third place finish with 87 Wins. That seems high and 82 Wins would seem to be where this team ends up in a strong division.
Finishes the year - 100%

Lou Piniella - Chicago Cubs
Piniella has won two straight Central Division titles but lost both division series. They are the strongest team in a pretty flat division, so a third title seems like a good bet. The Cubs won 97 games last year and PECOTA gives them 96 this year and a ten game cushion over the Brewers. That win total totally depends on starting pitching which seems to be their biggest question mark. If the Cubs fall behind any other team in the division, the new owners of the Cubs could get testy.
Finishes the year - 99%

Dusty Baker - Cincinnati Reds
This one is interesting. Baker brought a weak team to 74 Wins last year which seemed higher than expected. The team has placed much of its future in its young arms of which Baker has a serious history of abusing (Kerry Wood comes to mind). PECOTA predicts the team will improve five Wins to 79 this year. If the team starts off much worse and the young pitchers struggle, Baker could be on the chopping block.
Finishes the year - 65%

Clint Hurdle - Colorado Rockies
The Rockies regressed last year after making the World Series the year before after a fantastic run at the end. Much was expected and the team lost 88 games last year. Hurdle seems to know this is a do or die year and PECOTA isn't promising with only a two game improvement predicted. If the Rockies fall behind early in the division, Hurdle could find himself out after seven up and down years.
Finishes the year - 50%

Fredi Gonzalez - Florida Marlins
Every year we hear the same thing: The Marlins have the scariest young talent. While they do have some great young arms, a lot has to go right (on a pretty low budget) to make this all work. Gonzalez, in his second year with the team last year improved the teams Win totals by 13 games to 84 Wins. PECOTA predicts a big regression this coming year and predicts the team will lose 91 games and come in last place. While it's hard to think this team is going to finish behind the Nationals (what's up with that??), they need much to go right to play with the Phillies and the Mets. A bad start could leave Fredi vulnerable.
Finishes the year - 90%

Cecil Cooper - Houston Astros
The Astros looked dead at the beginning of last year and had a strong finish to end with 84 Wins, a 17 Win improvement on 2007. PECOTA predicts that will disintegrate this year due to pitching and only predicts the team to win 66 games. Not a good thing for Cooper. If things get real ugly there early, Cooper could be in trouble. If they hang in there a while, he'll finish the year.
Finishes the year - 75%

Joe Torre - Los Angeles Dodgers
Much is expected in the land of Blue this year after a first place finish last year, Torre's first with the club. A lot of what happens will be in the hands (or not) of Manny Ramirez. PECOTA, probably basing a projection without Manny(?) has them at 87 Wins in 2009 and well behind the Diamondbacks. This is the year's biggest question mark. Either way, Torre will finish the year.
Finishes the year - 100%

Ken Macha - Milwaukee Brewers

Macha hasn't been given a golden ticket here. The Brewers overcame some turmoil and rode the arms of Ben Sheets and C. C. Sabathia to the wild card last year with 90 victories. Macha won 93 games as a manager of the A's a few years back but was still let go after whispers of some serious club house conflict among his players. Sheets and Sabathia are gone and PECOTA only predicts 86 Wins for the team in 2009. The team can hit but will they pitch enough to compete? It seems unlikely. If the team falls back early and Macha loses the team, it won't be pretty.

Finishes the year - 50%

Jerry Manuel - New York Mets

There is a lot of pressure on Manual to produce a winner this year. The team has a new stadium and a high priced closer and set up man to close the gap on what has gone wrong the last two years. PECOTA expects them to win the division with 91 Wins. Anything less will be deemed unacceptable. But his hopes are pinned on Pelfrey, Maine and Oliver Perez, which seems a bit scary to the Fan. Any kind of bad start and there will be troubled waters here.

Finishes the year - 90%

Charlie Manuel - Philadelphia Phillies

Manual is certainly riding high with two first place finishes and a World Series title to his resume the last two years. Manual won't be going anywhere despite how the unpredictable team goes. PECOTA only gives them 89 Wins this year. Either way, Manual is one of the biggest locks to keep his job.

Finishes the year - 100%

John Russell - Pittsburgh Pirates

Nothing is expected of the Pirates this year and PECOTA lists the 2009 projection at 98 Losses, or four more than last year. There isn't any reason to think the team will be any better than that. Russell is the guy this team wanted to help them rebuild and it is doubtful that he will be going anywhere.

Finishes the year - 98%

Tony LaRussa - St. Louis Cardinals

LaRussa has taken a hit on his power base in the last couple of years and he is being forced to play younger players and yet keep the team competitive. He always seems to find a way to do that, but if the Cardinals start badly and stay bad, this situation could get explosive. This is definitely one to watch.

Finishes the year - 85%

Bud Black - San Diego Padres

Black has some serious problems with a team that is not suited for competing any time soon. The team lost 25 games more last year than the year before and though PECOTA predicts a ten game improvement this year, it seems unlikely. The question is whether or not the new owners of the team will have patience with Black or clean house out there.

Finishes the year - 40%

Bruce Bochy - San Francisco Giants

Everyone predicted the Giants would lose 100 games last year but they only lost 90, so that is an accomplishment of sorts for Bochy. An interesting story popped up today where Omar Vizquel rapped his former manager for a lack of aggressiveness as a manager. Interesting. Anyway, the PECOTA projections list the Giants for a five game improvement this coming year. But they have an extremely talented trio of starting pitchers who, if they catch fire, could make this a surprising team this year in an unstable division. It seems somewhat unfathomable, but then so did the Rays seem that way last year.

Finishes the year - 100%

Manny Acta - Washington Nationals

Woe is the Nationals who lost 102 games last year. Amazingly, PECOTA gives them 80 Wins this year. Whuh? The team seems in total disarray, with a general manager under siege, scouts under scrutiny and a whole lot of frayed ends. When Zimmerman is considered its best player, that's a scary thought. If the team opens stagnant, it could be the final Acta for Manny.

Finishes the year - 50%

We'll run through the American League tomorrow. Apologies for the funky formatting of this post. Blogger seems to get funky when you save a post as a draft. Will attempt to fix it after a save.

The Fan Welcomes a New Follower

A shout out and a welcome goes out to Billy the Kid, a new blogger and baseball fan. You can find his blog here.

The Kid has two things going for him. First, he loves baseball and secondly, he has a great name! The Fan used to be a "Billy" before he turned forty and decided "William" was more age appropriate. Besides, it sounds better when women say, "Willyum."

Good luck, Billy, and have fun. The Fan will be following along.

Odalis Perez is an Idiot

Perhaps you have seen this story today concerning Odalis Perez? It appears that Perez signed a minor league contract with the Nationals, the team he pitched for last year. It then appears that he decided he didn't like that deal and wanted to renegotiate. Umm, Odalis, it doesn't work like that. To make his point, Perez decided not to report to the Nationals. The Nationals said, "Yeah, whatever," and released him.

Perez has made $32 million in his career for basically one good year out of ten. And all he had to do was show up in camp and make the team and he was good for $870,000 for 2008. That isn't chump change to those of us struggling in this economy. And he would have made the team because he is a lefty and lefties have to be just about dead not to be wanted in major league baseball.

How else would you explain him hanging on this long despite these glorious ERAs the past three years: 6.20, 5.57 and 4.34? He has given up 680 base runners in his last 423 innings of work. In the ERA+ statistic, where 100 is average, he has a career number of 95. Only three times in his career was he over 100 and one of them was last year when the number was 101. So he was a league average pitcher last year.

And with that wonderful track record, he's going to try to call the shots? The Nationals certainly haven't had a lot of fun the last few weeks. First you have a supposed phenom who duped the team about his age and name. Then you have Bowden under investigation for the South American problem which is finally coming to light again. And now this.

No matter their recent troubles, the Nationals did the right thing in letting Perez go. If he wants to throw away that kind of money, let him. He wasn't very good anyway. Perez will be lucky if he hasn't thrown away the rest of his career.

Finally Some Chemistry That Won't Trouble Yankees

For any kid or anyone who remembers what it was like to be a kid, the words, "Field Trip," will always conjure up positive feelings. That's certainly what Joe Girardi must have been looking for when he took an unusual step today by closing down his training facility and taking his players and coaches on an outing to a local pool hall.

After a troublesome period with A-Rod and other issues, the Yankees decided to take a little detour on the road to playing shape by putting everyone on a bus and having a team building exercise. The Fan spent many years managing a customer service center for a software company and always found team building exercises to be beneficial.

Let's face it, work is work and the need to succeed is very powerful and stressful. We weren't playing for millions, but we were competing with other companies for our customer's dollars and it was always good once in a while to break up that stress with something that is fun and unexpected. While this happens often in the corporate world, the linked article mentioned that the players all said they had never experienced anything like it.

That speaks highly of Girardi and his creativity in building a team out of high end superstars bought by free agency and young players making major league minimum. While team unity is probably overrated in sports, it certainly does make it easier to pull hard for one another and work together for a common goal. That's something that has been missing over the past several years.

In fact, it was one of the sub-themes in Torre's book, "The Yankee Years." The World Series run featured players who worked hard toward a common goal of winning and the difference between that and the odd collection of older free agents the team collected after the World Series years affected that common goal.

You have to commend Girardi for taking this unusual step for his team. It won't make it any easier to beat Boston or Tampa Bay, but it will make it easier for the team to have fun together and work together along the way.

Heck, if Girardi wants to give the Fan a call, there are several tricks up this old manager's sleeve he can borrow. There is pajama day, funky hat day, mismatched clothes day, balloons filled with prizes, breakfast cereal day and many more. You go, Joe. Good job.

Spring Training is Just a Dream

To anyone living in the northern part of this great country, where winter still holds an iron grip, Spring Training is but a dream. It is no more real than watching Phil "Man Boobs" Mickelson luck out over Steve Stricker (thanks to Stricker's yak on the last hole) on green grass and in shirt sleeves.

We just had ten inches of snow on Wednesday. Sixteen more inches of the stuff is expected tonight and tomorrow. The snow is piled up in the yard up to the bottom branches of the trees and the constant wind-blown snow across the landscape, like millions of writhing snakes, completes the picture of the frozen tundra that is the Fan's reality.

One thing the Fan is absolutely sure of: Al Gore has never been to northern Maine. Because if he had made the trip here, he never would have made that documentary. All things spring and green and warm seem a million miles away.

Is it any wonder that the Fan has always longed to make a pilgrimage to Florida this time of year to see this annual rite of spring? It's not about the intimate setting of seeing MLB players closer up than you can see them at their usual home parks. It's about being some place warm in February and March and not here. Well, once upon a time it was the desire to see Spring Training and watch the newest rookies and see first hand what veterans look poised to have a big year. But now, when the Fan has spent a half century of frigid winters and nights that begin at 4:00 P.M., it's only about being warm and wearing shorts and sandals.

The Fan's Mom doesn't get it. Making the weekly Sunday call, she told the Fan that she had to get a blanket out this week because she was cold. Mom lives in North Palm Beach, Florida. What is it, Mom? About 72 or something? Such a pity that.

There are some good things about living in a place like this. For most of the year, it's way too cold for crooks to be lurking around waiting for an opening to rob you. It's too cold for lots of people to want to live here, leading to a less congested lifestyle. It's cold enough to see Moose on a regular basis and those lovable but ugly and yet graceful creatures are one of the coolest sights on earth (unless you hit one with your car).

The Fan used to snowshoe. What's that? You know. You've seen them in Bugs Bunny cartoons. Those tennis racket thingys you wear on you feet? Yeah, them. The Fan used to enjoy making fresh tracks through the wilderness. But two creaky knees make that too painful to think about. Or maybe the Fan just got lazy along the way. Hard to say which is more the reality. Probably the latter.

Anyway, the thought of Spring Training, while exciting because it means that real baseball will soon be on the way, also seems like a cruel joke. Yes, some of you are starting to get an inkling of spring. Some of you will soon see lilies and other wonderful signs of life. But us poor slobs in the frozen tundra have nothing to look forward to but another month an a half of hard winter. Egads, that's depressing.

If the Fan liked fishing (besides the love of eating fish), he could always do what hundreds of red necks around here do and go ice fishing. But the thought of sitting in a small homemade shack on the ice in the middle of a lake, watching a stick and a string leading down through a ten inch hole in the ice, doesn't seem like a whole lot of fun. But most of the folks that do that around here just use it as an excuse to chug a six pack and forget all about Obama's stimulus package that seems as remote to us as spring does. Plus, the builder of the Fan's house died in one of those shacks when it caught fire while he was passed out on the lake. Yup, true story.

So, the Fan will continue to read all the favorite baseball sites and see all those stories about young men playing the great game of baseball on green grass and with short sleeves. All the while, the Fan will sigh and grumble about another darn snowstorm and having to take the dog out when bitter winds are whipping across his pink cheeks.

{{grrrr}} Spring Training. Uh huh. Sure.

Speaking of young men, here is a quiz: Who was the youngest player in the majors last year? If you guessed Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers, you win the Manny Batting Helmet Award. Eww! Kershaw was born in 1988. It won't be long before the first player born in the 1990s arrives on the scene. Now isn't THAT depressing!? The last player that was the Fan's age in the majors was Paul Molitor and he retired ten years ago.

Okay. Whine over. Have a good Spring Training day.

Jose Reyes Versus Hanley Ramirez

Two of the best young shortstops in the National League also happen to play in the National League East: Hanley Ramirez of the Marlins and Jose Reyes of the Mets. Both were born in 1983 in the Dominican Republic. Both have batted leadoff for most of their careers. Which one is better? Let's look at the numbers for the last three years and a future projection:

Batting Average:
Hanley Ramirez - .308
Jose Reyes - .292

On Base Percentage:
Hanley Ramirez - .379
Jose Reyes - .355

OPS:
Hanley Ramirez - .906
Jose Reyes - .816

OPS+:
Hanley Ramirez - 135
Jose Reyes - 112

Runs Created/ BtRuns:
Hanley Ramirez - 497/58.6
Jose Reyes - 513/30.3

Stolen Bases - Stolen Base Percentage:
Hanley Ramirez - 137 77%
Jose Reyes - 198 79%

Fielding Percentage/League Average Fielding Percentage:
Hanley Ramirez - .964/.974
Jose Reyes - .976/.974

Range Factor/League Average Range Factor:
Hanley Ramirez - 4.21/3.98
Jose Reyes - 3.97/3.98

Win Shares - total last three years:
Hanley Ramirez - 86
Jose Reyes - 82

WARP:
Hanley Ramirez - 23.7 (total)
Jose Reyes - 18.1

Projected WARP Total Next Seven Years:
Hanley Ramirez - 44.8
Jose Reyes - 37.0

All statistics from www.baseball-reference.com, www.hardballtimes.com, www.baseballprospectus.com.

While the Fan would be pleased to have either shortstop on his team for years to come, it seems very easy to see that Hanley Ramirez is the more valuable player.

Not a Big Fan of the Crede Signing

Some players just seem to play a long time despite the fact that they aren't very good. Juan Pierre comes to mind as does the Hairston brothers. Joe Crede fits in that category and today, it was announced that the Twins had signed the third baseman for $2.5 million plus incentives.

The only statistics that favor Crede over his career is a slightly higher slugging percentage than league average and slightly better defense. He is deemed as a power bat, but despite some middle of the road power years, he isn't that special. Add that to the fact that he has a creaky back and we all know what that can do to a career (just ask Mattingly).

Baseball Prospectus lists Crede's value at $3.05 million, so $2.5 million seems like a good deal, but say he gets 500 at bats and maxes his deal to $7 million (the Fan hates incentives based on At Bats), then Crede will be overpaid by more than double what he is worth.

According to Crede's stat sheet, the man has compiled a lifetime On Base Percentage of .306 with the league average over those same nine seasons as .340. That's a pretty low grade in what has become an important statistic. And his OPS+, where 100 is average, Crede's lifetime number is 93, or below average. So how is it that he always seems desirable to teams like the White Sox and the Twins? The bottom line seems to be that he can hit a homer occasionally.

And the other up side the Twins might look at is Crede's defense which has been higher than league average. Defense is important to the Twins and always has been. But on the short side, Crede made 20 errors in just 97 games at third last year. Ugh.

The Twins might regret this deal come September, but that's why they play the game because you never know. But if Crede plays to his averages, he won't be what the Twins need.

This Week's Transaction Wire is Closed Capspunned

The transaction wire is slowing down a bit. Teams have their rosters close to being set and the next slew of transaction won't arrive until teams start making their cuts. But there were still a few and enough to at least take a look:

- The former Brooklyn Dogders went back to the Hudson and signed Orlando. Having Orlando in California should make it a lot easier for the Disney accountants to keep their books straight.

- The home blogs for Mets' fans Livaned up a bit after their team signed Hernandez to a minor league contract.

- Santana can afford a few to make a few more CDs after Erwin signed a four year contract with the Angels.

- Though no longer the Hart of the Brewers' lineup, Corey signed for another stint with the team.

- No longer making Emillion dollars a year, Brown had to settle for a minor league contract.

- The Nationals kept a good media guy in Josh who is aways a Willingham in team commercials.

- The Nationals and Milledge didn't want to grind through the arbitration process and the team is hoping not to be Lastings again in the standings (two puns for the price of one!).

- The Indians found Andy to be too much like K-Marte and designated him, probably leading to his release and a possible Blue Light Special.

- Isaias the Indians have been busy! The team traded Velasquez for pitcher, Juan, in what looks to the Fan like a fire Salas.

- Mr. Roberts almost went to Washington, but settled close by in Baltimore, where Brian will remain for another four years.

And that's a skinny dip through the transaction wires for the past seven days. There aren't any more, so the Fan hasn't denuded you of anything.

Who Was Buddy Myer?

Curiosity is a blessing and a curse. The Fan told you about Josh Borenstein's list the other day. A prominent name on that list was Buddy Myer. Who?? The Fan had never heard of Buddy Myer and according to Josh's list, the guy was a pretty darn good ballplayer. Then how come the guy's name has never come up?

Well, curiosity is an overwhelming thing sometimes. So the Fan went to the good old stat sources for this very good player from the late 1920s through the 1930s. We'll get to some of those nuggets later. All the sources list Charles Solomon "Buddy" Myer as having been born in 1906 in Ellisberg, Mississippi. And they list his death in 1974. But that information wasn't good enough for the Fan. Who was he? Where did he come from?

So the Fan did some digging. It's what the Fan does. If you have ever checked out the links to the right of these posts, the Fan makes a living of sorts tracking down ghosts of the past. Almost as much of the Fan's time is spent on ancestry.com as on baseball-reference.com. What was found for old Buddy Myer is interesting.

Okay, we know that his full name was Charles Solomon Myer and we have his birth date. And of course, a census search came up empty for Charles Myer in Mississippi. Such is the life of a genealogist. After much fiddling around, a hit was finally found on a "Charlie" Myer that fits our description perfectly in Ellisberg. Bingo. But the Fan had found one web article that mentioned that Buddy's parents had sent him to college at Mississippi State. But the 1910 census only shows his mom, Maud, and his siblings. Where was dad?

Of course, Buddy wasn't alive in the 1900, so using a search for Maud Myer turns her up with her husband, Charles Solomon (!) who was born in 1867 in Mississippi to a German father and a Mississippi mother. So what happened to Charles Solomon Myer, Senior? And, yes, our Buddy Myer was a Junior. Then it struck the Fan that in his original 1910 census search for "Charles Myer," a few hits had occurred but they were all too old to be Buddy. So the Fan retraced his steps.

And that's when thunder struck. There he was, Charles Solomon Myer (who had been a salesman in the 1900 census by the way), born 1867, is listed in the 1910 Mississippi census...in the state insane asylum as a patient in Jackson, Mississippi. He was still there in in 1920 and 1930. How tragic!

So not only was Buddy Myer overlooked as one of the best second basemen of the 20th Century, but his life was tragic.

Charles, the elder, was the son of Solomon and Amanda Myer. His father was a German immigrant and a merchant once he had come to this country. And his father was quite old when Charles was born (in Solomon's late 40s).

Of course, there isn't time to complete the big dig on what happened to Buddy's father and follow up on the particulars. But, probably with the help of either a scholarship or perhaps with merchant Solomon's money, Buddy did go to college and finished there before starting his major league career.

And it was a very good career, all played with Washington except for a short stint with the Red Sox. He piled up over 2100 hits and a .303 Batting Average. More impressively, his lifetime OBP was .389. He had no power, but second basemen of that era weren't supposed to. His best year was 1935 when he had 215 hits good for a league leading .349 average. He also had 96 Walks that year and scored 115 runs while driving in 100 (with only 5 homers!). He was fourth in MVP voting that year.

Myer came to the big leagues as a shortstop, but he made too many errors there and was moved to second base. There he excelled and ended his career with an above league average fielding percentage and Range Factor.

After looking at all this information, the Fan has become smitten with Myer's story and firmly believes Myer should have gotten some serious consideration for the Hall of Fame. He overcame a lot and was a really good player for a long time in the majors.

This one was for you, Josh.

Howard Versus Fielder

Two players that have seemed on similar paths are Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder. The question for today is: Which of these players will have the most impact in the next five years?

The current statistics seem to favor Ryan Howard and he just signed for a ton of money. Prince Fielder just signed an extension too, for good money, but less than Howard. Let's put them head to head on some categories for the last three years and go from there:

Ryan Howard - 153 homers, 431 RBI (a traditionalist's bonanza!), 579 strikeouts, 296 Walks, .277 Batting Average, .383 OBP, .594 SP, .977 OPS, 145 OPS+, 118.5 Adjusted Batting Runs, 45 errors, .990 FP, 9.30 RF, 82 total Win Shares (all stats from http://www.baseball-reference.com/ except Win Shares which is from http://www.hardballtimes.com/).

Prince Fielder - 112 homers, 303 RBI, 380 strikeouts, 233 Walks, .278 Batting Average, .364 OBP, .535 SP, .899 OPS, 131 OPS+, 84.6 Adjusted Batting Runs, 42 Errors, .989 FP, 9.05 RF, 68 total Win Shares.

As you can see from the last three years, which were very easy to compare since both stayed healthy and both played first base, Howard comes out on top on almost every category in both batting and fielding. So that clearly means that Howard will be the better player the next five years right?

There is one major caveat here. Ryan Howard is 29 years old. Prince Fielder is only 24. Howard, when he was Fielder's age, was just going into his first real taste of the majors where he hit 22 homers in 312 at bats. If you put Fielder on the same time line as Howard, there is no way (if he stays healthy) that Fielder isn't going to beat 23 homers.

So Fielder has all those three years ahead of him where Howard really blossomed. After five years, Fielder will be 29, Howard, 34. Which would you rather have? It's a good question that only time will answer. Baseball Prospectus tries to predict such things with their PECOTA projections. Here is their breakdown for the next five years:

Howard
OPS: .929, .913, .919, .893, .871
WARP: 4.4, 3.9, 3.7, 2.9, 2.1

Fielder
OPS: .920, .911, .897, .912, .924
WARP: 4.1, 4.3, 3.7, 3.8, 3.7

So if the PECOTA projections are anywhere in the ballpark, Howard will be more valuable than Fielder for one more year and then the two will reverse in value. Interesting. It will be fun to watch.

Trads Versus Stat Heads

The traditional way of looking at statistics has indubitably taken a huge hit in recent years due to the new statistical tools generally called Sabermetrics. The old school of whom the Fan was a card carrying member, looked at homers, batting average, wins, losses, RBIs and stuff like that. Sabermetrics looks at OPS+, Win Shares, FIP and others. As mentioned before in the FanDome, the Fan is slowly poking around with all this wonderful data and is slowly coming to the present. No doubt it's a case of a dinosaur suddenly rising from the LaBrea Tar Pits.

What is surprising is the venom that these two points of view seem to generate. The Fan was a little shell-shocked from being called stupid on too many occasions to be able to tolerate further hits on his self-esteem. So, slowly and surely, the Fan is becoming educated and the more these numbers are delved into, the more the Fan likes them. However, statistical points of views are kind of like politics. There is room for middle ground and for lucid conversations. But that rarely happens. Instead, insults are thrown across the room (or chat room) and one side's followers are called "dullwits" and the other, "stat-heads," which apparently is the new term for nerds.

And just when old "Trads" like the Fan are venturing into the cool and deep waters of the Saber world, guys like Keith Law spout something so inherently unwarranted, it just fans the flames further. Today was a good example. In Law's post on ESPN.com (which is now unavailable for some reason), he calls the Griffey signing in Seattle, "short-sighted" and "cynical." Those are strong words. His point was that Seattle is ignoring statistical data and hindering development of its younger players for a cynical play at gaining attendance.

Whoa, dude! The Fan concedes that sabermetrics are cool. You've won at least this battle. But they aren't the end all to every single situation (which is also Joe Torre's point in his now famous new book). Does the Griffey signing have to be "cynical"? Can it also be a feel good story that doesn't make any statistical sense and wasn't meant to? Is that possible in this new world we live in?

The Griffey signing should be viewed for what it is--a sentimental tug from his former team and a sentimental farewell journey for "The Kid." It doesn't have much to do with stats, or sense, or anything else for that matter. For sure, the Mariners are probably considering that Griffey will sell a few more tickets. So what? Why shouldn't they look to sell more tickets? This is a tough economy. Every little thing will help. The fans in Seattle are thrilled and most true baseball fans feel good about this story. Leave it at that.

The point of all this is that when two sides disagree, it is polite to listen to the other point of view with at least a shred of an open mind there might be a nugget of truth in there somewhere. The day when the Fan thinks he has it all figured out is probably the day after the obituary is written. So whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, a Christian or an Agnostic or a traditionalist or a sabermatrician, there is no cause for outbursts and personal attacks. That's just not cool.

It's better to agree to disagree than to be disagreeable as a person. Welcome home, Junior.

25 Players Remembered Fondly

This post is Rob Neyer's fault and Josh Borenstein's fault. First, Mr. Neyer mentioned in his Wednesday Wangdoodles a facebook fad where kids (or people) were making lists of 25 things about themselves. His link list includes two bloggers who have taken the plunge themselves (linked here and here).

So that was percolating a while inside the Fan and then went and read Josh's new post about Jews who have finished a year over .400 OBP by rank. It's a cool list, if he hadn't of mentioned an "honorable mention" section which lists Ron Bloomberg. Ah! Ron Bloomberg! One of the Fan's all time favorite players! A real goof who was the odd combination of Hebrew with a southern accent. If you read the Fan's comment on Josh's post, then you'll have an idea how much old Bloomberg meant to a childhood.

So, with thanks to the two gentlemen above (you may not thank them after reading this), the Fan gives you his list of 25 Players Remembered Fondly. Though the Fan tries to show impartiality and keeps the FanDome about all teams and all of baseball, the list is a bit top heavy with Yankees. That was the hometown team and that just the way it is. Here they are:

1. Got to start with Ron Bloomberg. First of all, the man was fashioned in appearance like Dudley Dooright. He was tall and strong and handsome. He swung harder than any player before or since. And more often than not (when he was on), he crushed line drives all over the place. He was the very first DH and rightly so. His glove was made of iron. Who else in baseball would have dropped a throw to first (where he was playing) that ruined a triple play and later explained that he was so excited because he had never seen a triple play. He could bang, but he made 13 errors at first base in only 95 games. What fun memories! See his statistics here and he has a book out, so see that here.

2. Juan Marichal. Marichal captured the imaginations of kids everywhere from the Fan's generation with his high leg kick, his natural smile and his fearless knack of winning and winning and winning. He won 20 games six times in seven seasons and bookended that run with two 18 win seasons. That meant he was in the All Star game every year so we got a good look at him many times. The man's stats are amazing.

3. Mike Schmidt. When the Fan was a kid, the most magical times of the year were three glorious weeks when the Fan's mom would take her three kids to Wildwood, NJ. She would rent the top floor of this wonderful, old Italian couple named the Tropeas. We saved our money all year long for the boardwalk and no family member loved the beach more than the Fan. After getting up around 7:00 A.M. to get to the beach at 8:00, the Fan would wait for a half hour for that sing-song: "New York Daily News, Daily News Here," and thus would get the morning box scores. The same sing-song would apply to the later paper, the Philadelphia Daily News, which would also be purchased because it had the later box scores. It was because of this affiliation that the Fan became enamored with Michael Jack Schmidt, from his first really poor year right up until he retired a Hall of Famer.

4. Ron Guidry. Ron Guidry was the everyman for Yankee fans. He was scrawny, yet threw smoke and learned a wicked slider from Sparky Lyle and had one of the greatest pitching years of all time in 1978. He had some injury trouble which affected his stuff, but he still gutted it out to win 20 or more games two other times, which made us appreciate him even more.

5. Greg Nettles. Nettles came to the Yankees when they were pretty bad and stayed through the glory years of the late 70s. He hit a lot of meaningful homers but it was his defense and sharp wit which made him a Yankee legend. No one will ever forget his diving stops in the World Series, but he also coined some great lines. His most famous was for Sparky Lyle when the Yankees signed Goose Gossage. Lyle had just completed a fantastic year when Gossage came on board which prompted this Nettles classic: "He went from Cy Young to Syonara."

6. Sparky Lyle. Okay, we've mentioned his name twice already, so he's got to get in here. One of the few relief pitchers ever to win the Cy Young, the man was a monster coming out of the bullpen. And the Fan isn't talking the closers of today who average around 70 innings a season. Lyle would come in for 137 innings a season and just end the game. It was over. He never struck a lot of guys out, but he got the job done time and time again. And he was so much fun to watch with his beard and black mane of hair. It was a buzz like no other at the time.

7. Johnny Bench. The guy was bigger than life. With his Big Red Machine strapped on his shoulders, he became the matinee idol of fans all over the country. Okay, so the Reds had a lot of good players (Rose, Perez, Morgan), but Bench was the king. And man was he big!

8. Rickey Henderson. The Fan has already waxed poetic on the man, so there is no sense going through it again. The man was one of the ten best players of all time and was just as exciting to watch as he was to hate if you were an opposing fan. He was excitement.

9. Bo Jackson. Bo Jackson probably had as much of a physical gift as any man who ever lived. He could run like a deer, he was as strong as an ox and he excelled in both MLB and the NFL. And for a while, he was the most talked about, most jazzed up athlete in the world. Who can forget the Nike "Bo Knows" commercials. He had it all until he needed a hip replacement and he still came back and played baseball fairly well with a bionic hip! He was superman.

10. Mel Stottlemyer. When the Yankees of the Fan's youth were as terrible as they were, Stottlemyer was the anchor or the light in a sea of darkness. He was such a great pitcher and very much overlooked as a hurler in his career. He won 20 or more games three times on teams that came in fifth, fifth and fourth respectively. He also hit 7 homers and was one of the better fielding pitchers of his time. He was our hero.

11. Willie Mays Aikens. Aikens had a World Series to remember in 1980 when he captured our imaginations. That World Series, he became the only man to hit two homers in a game twice during the same series. It was tragic when his career was derailed by drugs. But he was fun to watch.

12. George Brett. You can't mention the Royals without mentioning George Brett. He was another everyman that seemed like a great guy you'd want to have a beer with. He never seemed like that great an athlete, but boy could he hit. And his run ins with the Yankees were never to be forgotten. And we'll also never forget the year he flirted with .400 and batted .390 with a 1.180 OPS! And if you go to the link, check the bottom of that page for his post season batting stats. He was a killer.

13. Nolan Ryan. You had to love Nolan Ryan. He was this good old country boy who threw harder than anyone ever threw. Before there was Roger Clemens, there was Ryan and he had crazy stuff for the longest time ever. He just pitched and pitched and pitched for decades. Some of his records may never be broken. Boy was he fun to watch. And that one time when a batter didn't like being hit with a pitch went to the mound and found himself in a headlock by Ryan and got pounded. Yup, Ryan was our kind of guy.

14. Satchel Paige. Paige was a legend that never left us as kids. His best years left behind in the Negro Leagues, Paige made his major league debut at the age of 42. Four years later, at the age of 46, he went 12-10 with an ERA of 3.08. And then to finish the legend forever, he pitched in a game in 1965 at the age of 61 with Kansas City and pitched three scoreless innings, giving up only one hit. What an amazing story.

15. Ed Kranepool. His homer was the first the Fan had ever seen and thus he holds a special place as the bond that passes from father to son that exemplifies baseball. Kranepool was never that great a player, but he joined the franchise Mets full time in 1963 and became their first matinee idol. And he remained a fixture for fifteen years and right through their miracle World Series win when the phrase, "You gotta believe!" was born.

16. Rick Dempsey. Dempsey was the perennial catcher for the great pitching staff of the Orioles' glory years. He was a terrible hitter, but he apparently handled the pitching staff perfectly. But what made Dempsey a Fan favorite was the way he used to make fun of his manager, Earl Weaver, and the special memories he provided for fans of all teams when he "performed" during rain delays by running the bases in his stockinged feet on top of the tarp. It was hysterical and a real crowd pleaser. He appeared in major league games for 23 seasons, remarkable for a catcher who couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag.

17. Don Mattingly. Mattingly was the best player in baseball for four years until his back problems derailed his career. But for that four years, it sure was a fun ride. One of the best fielding first basemen ever, he was a hero to every New York fan and tragically ended his career the year before the Yankees started their run of four World Series titles in five years.

18. Joe Pepitone. Before there was a Joe Namath, there was another Broadway Joe and he was Joe Pepitone. One of the first men to ever use a blow drier to style his hair, he was a New York legend that never lived up to his skills as a baseball player. He was all style and a real ladies man and larger than life in a city that made him that way. He wasted his career until a couple of decent years in Chicago saved him somewhat. Wasted career or not, we kids loved him. And so did the Fan's sister.

19. Fernando Venezuala. How did this pudgy guy from Mexico ever steal so many hearts in the game of baseball? Fernando Mania was bigger than life and hard to explain to young fans that didn't live through it. We never quite believed his age and the Fan still doesn't believe he was 20 when he first came to the Dodgers in 1980. But for a string of five years, we found the guy was no fluke. He really could pitch.

20. Oil Can Boyd. Dennis Ray Boyd was about the goofiest pitcher that ever put on a Red Sox uniform. He could really pitch (before he got hurt), but he could also spark controversy and fits of laughter at what he would say from time to time. How about this classic after a game in Cleveland was troubled by a thick fog: "That's what they get for building a park on the ocean." A recent story was published that he wants to make a comeback at the age of 49. In his reasoning, "If Satchell Paige could do it, so can I."

21. Mark Fidrych. You'll have to read the Fan's recent post on Fidrych if you have no idea who this is talking about. The Fan wishes you could have all seen it.

22. Mickey Mantle. Mickey was the Elvis of baseball. He was the Fan's first hero and the last. He was everything to this kid from New Jersey. The Fan wore #7 in his P.A.L. baseball days and switch hit to be like the Mick. The most special memory? It was Mother's Day and we went to our favorite restaurant (The Emerson) to celebrate the event. The Fan wasn't allowed near the bar, but had to go to the bathroom. The Yankee game was on television above the bar and the Fan stopped just long enough to watch the legend, Mickey Mantle hit is 500th home run.

23. Phil Neikro. The Fan has a special place for knuckleball pitchers. From Hoyt Wilhelm to Wilber Wood, they just capture the imagination. For one, you don't have to be a special athlete to throw one, so you can look like the garbage man down the street to be successful and Neikro certainly looked like that. He was just an average Joe (no, that was his brother) who had a special pitch and he transformed that into a 24 year career that lasted until he was 48 years old. And he waffled his way into the Hall of Fame with 318 career wins. Plus, as a man who won 20 games in a season and lost twenty games in the same season, you can't get much better than that!

24. Tony Conigliaro. Tony had two things going for him. First, he was a stud Italian who could really mash the ball. He was dashing and handsome and we couldn't help love the guy. Secondly, his career was crushed with one pitch that mangled his eye and his career. We loved him before and we loved him more after. And he almost made it back. He was a Shakespearean Tragedy if ever baseball had one.

25. Derek Jeter. The Fan has to admit to his man crush here. Jeter has been the man to the Fan for as long as he's been in the big leagues. For his amazing moments during the World Series run to the way he carries himself to the respect he garners from his peers around the league. He just is the kind of player the Fan would have dreamed about being. It hurts when his fielding is bashed and the Fan guesses that it is deserved. But he is today's hero and will always be so.

If you made it this far and finished this book of a post, thank you for your patience and for your indulgence. It certainly was kind of you to take this long trip with the Fan.

John Henry is Blowing Smoke

Since John Henry purchased the Boston Red Sox, a lot has gone right there. He has set up an organization that has delivered two World Series titles after not winning any since 1918. But when it comes to his comments about a salary cap in major league baseball, he looks like a dope.

MLB has the next best thing to a salary cap and that is a revenue sharing system that "fines" teams like the Yankees when they go over a certain limit. It also shares revenue equally to all teams from revenue derived by MLB.com and MLB.TV. That share equals roughly $26 million to each team.

Because of such a system, MLB's parity is unrivaled by even the NFL. If you don't believe the Fan, listen to Jayson Stark's argument. Do we need to say more about the Bay Rays? Diamondbacks? Twins? The system is working. The revenue sharing has allowed lower to middle market teams to lock up young players. Let's look at a few:

• Twins: Joe Mauer ($6.25 million), Justin Morneau ($8.4 million), Michael Cuddyer ($5.9 million).
• Royals: Gil(ga) Meche ($11.4 million), Zack Greinke
• Reds: Aaron Harang ($6.7 million), Bronson Arroyo ($4.6 million)
• Indians: Travis Hafner ($8 million), Casey Blake ($ 6.1 million)

The one area that needs to be fixed is the draft. You have a supposed limit and some teams stick to it and others don't. It needs to be fixed so that the playing field is level. But other than that, the MLB system is working just fine.

Of course, Henry, who seems fixated on what the Yankees spend, didn't seem to put out a salary cap story after the Red Sox outbid everyone on Dice-K.

A salary cap is a bad idea and the players' union won't go for it anyway. As much as everyone hates the Yankees to spend like they do, they build interest in the game and put people in the stands at visiting parks. And that's what pays teams to be able to stockpile their young talent like Morneau and Mauer to name a couple.

You've done a great job, Mr. Henry. Now cork it. Okay?

Vladimir Guerrero Say Knee is Healthy

Last year, Vladimir Guerrero looked more like an old Tony Oliva rather than the Montreal stud who stole 40 bases just seven years ago. In a story reported today by Lyle Spencer of MLB.com, Vladimir Guerrero took batting practice today, hit a bunch of line drives and pronounced himself as healthy. If so, that would be good news for the Angels.

It's hard to say if Guerrero is more a victim of years on Montreal's artificial turf or just a modern victim of generic arthritic knees. The one difference between Guerrero's plight and that of Tony Oliva's and Rico Carty's decades earlier is the level of surgery available to today's players. Injuries that would have ended careers just two decades ago can now be handled with modern medicine and new understandings of physical therapy.

The Angels certainly hope so as the Vlad of 2008 was just a shell of the player he was in years past. Though Guerrero still hit .303 with 27 homers, it was his lowest average since 1997 and his rookie year. His OBP was down .20 points from his career average, his Slugging Percentage was off 50 points from his career average and he was only able to play 99 games in the field due to his problems.

Don't get the Fan wrong. A down year for Guerrero is light years ahead of a good year for most other players. What we don't know though, is whether 2008 was the start of a downhill slide or just an off year. Neyer and others like to point out that players regress after the age of 32 and Guerrero is now 33. Time will tell how fast the slide goes or if his surgery will slow down the regression for a few more years.

Guerrero was very positive in the piece and was happy about the acquisition of Bobby Abreu. If Abreu comes close to being on base 40% of the time like usual, then Guerrero will have many more opportunities to drive in runs. That kind of patience has been lacking on the Angels and should benefit the lineup and Guerrero in particular.

Guerrero has been a hidden star for many years and to this point in his career, has slowly built what is heading to be a Hall of Fame career. Whether he reverts back a bit to the crusher he was before 2008 or even with reduced but still positive numbers like last year, Guerrero will be regarded as one of the best players of his time.

Alex Rodriguez at His News Conference

The Fan was multi-Taskering this afternoon. Kept an eye on A-Rod's news conference, while keeping an eye on Rob Neyer's ESPN.com chat while also working on the family's 2008 taxes. What an emotional roller coaster that was!

The bottom line on all three: The Fan is going to owe the IRS big time, A-Rod owes me nothing more and Mr. Neyer runs fun chats but never answers the Fan's questions. Well, one out of three is better than nothing.

A-Rod did the best he could do under the circumstance. He took the blame. He said as much as the spin doctors would let him. He thanked his teammates. He didn't defend his stats and said their historical relevance would be up to others and not him. And he wants to be judged from this day forward. He dodged quite a few questions, which is the right PR move at the moment. He admitted to a form of amphetamine while with Seattle.

He handled himself about as good as can be asked for by the Yankees. Even Buster Olney seemed to be satisfied (Egads! Let's hope so). This Fan knows the reality that we won't hear the last of this story or others. But can we focus on baseball now? Let's hope so.

Rooting for Micah Owings

During the regular season, one of the regular features here at the FanDome is what the Fan calls box score favorites. Box score favorites are players that the Fan finds interesting and can't wait to check out the day's box scores to see how those players did. Last year, Josh Hamilton was one of those favorites. Micah Owings has been a two year favorite and it was a sad day last year when the Diamondbacks gave up on him.

The Fan has to make an admission here. For years, the Fan has exclaimed the stupidity of having a DH rule in one league and not the other. It just doesn't seem to make sense and it messes with and complicates things like the World Series, inter league baseball and the All Star game. Since it is infinitely more fun to watch David Ortiz hit than it is to watch your average National League pitcher hit, the Fan has crusaded to have the DH in both leagues. How many sacrifice bunts can a Fan watch in a season?

There is one problem with the Fan's position and Micah Owings is its focal point. There are a handful of pitchers out there that are worth the price of admission to watch them hit. And so, despite the hypocritical stance the Fan takes on the DH, it certainly sucks that Sabathia is now in the American League and won't bat. Micah Owings is a pitcher worth watching at the plate.

Owings owns a .900+ lifetime OPS as a pitcher. Heck, if he could play shortstop, the Red Sox would love that kind of OPS. In 2007, Owings had twenty hits as a pitcher and eleven of them went for extra bases including four home runs. After the Diamondbacks gave up on him last year and traded him to the Reds, his only appearances for the Reds...was as a batter. And he had two hits in four at bats. He is a better pinch hitter than a "professional pinch hitter" like Daryle Ward.

The Fan is slowly coming around to sabermetrics. It's hard for a dinosaur to lift his head out of the tar pits. So forgive the Fan if he is a bit confused at times about his new found stats. But if the Fan is reading things correctly, Owings wasn't much worse of a pitcher last year when he had an ERA of 5.93 than the year before when his ERA was 4.30. Let's see if we can untangle the numbers.

First, the traditional statistics: Owings walked slightly more batters last year than he did the year before (3.4 per nine innings compared to 3.0). He also had a higher WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched). In 2008 his WHIP was 1.39 and the year before 1.28. For some reason, his rate of hitting batters with the pitch was up from 1.00 to 1.03 per nine innings, which is really high. His home runs allowed per nine innings were slightly up, but the slugging percentage of batters he faced was down from the year before. He always struck out more per nine innings than the year before.

Okay, now the sabermetrics. (God help the Fan here). There is a statistic called a FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) that was invented by some dudes at TangoTiger. The statistic gives an ERA value that is not dependent on how the fielders behind him fared. The 2007 Diamondbacks were a much better fielding team than last year's version apparently. Owings' FIP was the exact same as the year before: 4.80. This statistic seems to be verified by another sabermetric called a DER (Defense Efficiency Ratio) which measures "percent of times a batted ball is turned into an out by the teams’ fielders, not including home runs. " In 2007, Owings' DER was .727. Last year it was .712. That seems to back up the FIP and show that his fielders didn't do him any favors last year. This statistic is tempered a bit by another metric called LD% or Line Drive Percentage. Owings gave up more line drives per batted ball last year than the year before.

Okay, all of that hoop jumping seems to show that Owings is around a 4.80 pitcher. Not very good, but not bad by today's standards. Add to that fact that as a pitcher, he adds value as a batter (he had 4 Win Shares as a batter in 2007. Hardly ANY pitchers had positive Win Shares in that category), and he can't be much worse than any other fourth or fifth starter the Reds throw out there. A 4.80 ERA is better than ANY starter the Rangers or Orioles throw out there.

Let's hope Owings gets that opportunity. At least so the Fan can have fun looking for his box score.

How Shea Looks Now

For a sad look at how Shea looks right now, click here for a very good post from Marty Noble. Noble has seen it all and was writing down thataways when the Fan grew up in New Jersey.

Memories of Shea and Yankee Stadiums

It's hard to believe that in one year, both New York landmark stadiums will be replaced, and in Shea's case, demolished. The Fan spent many happy days at both places and they will be sorely missed.


The first live baseball game the Fan ever went to was at Shea at the tender age of eight. The father who took the little Fan would be dead of an auto accident just two years later. As such, it's a special memory even though the details may be sketchy.


It is somewhat clear that the Mets played the Pirates and Bob Veale pitched for the Pittsburgh club and it can't be remembered who the Met's pitcher was. Dad had seats right behind home plate and everything was right there. Veale was rather menacing looking and intimidating to a little kid behind the backstop. The batter must have been even more scared. The Mets won the game with an Ed Kranepool homer.


To a little kid who barely remembered the World's Fair, near where the present Shea grounds stood, two things are remembered from that great event. The first was a General Electric exhibit about the future and the gadgets that would be available by the time we were grown up. Wonder how many of those came to pass? The second was the giant sphere of the world that still stands near Shea. That sphere is featured in the movie, "Men in Black."




Shea was a pretty little thing of a stadium to a kid. It was perfectly round and had this pastel blue color that was very appealing and attractive to the eye. The scoreboard was enormous in right field and there was a lot of space behind the fence there. There was also a lot of space before the fence. Bobby Murcer's Yankee career ended on those warning tracks. That memory of going to Shea with Dad will be remembered always. But the Fan didn't get back to Shea until a decade later.


Growing up in New Jersey, the Fan was as rabid a Yankee fanatic as can be humanly possible. Please remember that this was the dark years when nobody went to Yankee Stadium and the team was terrible. We're talking about the years from 1966 to 1974. You had to be a Fan to like those teams with Horace Clarke, Roy White, Mike Kekich, Fritz Peterson, Mel Stottlemyer, Steve Hamilton, Dooley Womack, Thad Tillotson, Gene Michael and the rest of the gang. It may have been the worst collection of hitters in the history of baseball.


Being as bad as they were, Yankee seats were easy to obtain. And relative to today, they were cheap. After Dad died, the Fan's mom had to work full time and that often included weekends. She "babysat" the Fan and his brother by giving them five dollars each and putting them on the bus headed to New York. Imagine now that the Fan was all of eleven and little brother was nine. If a mom were to do that nowadays, she would be arrested for negligence. The Fan thinks Mom was the very coolest on earth.


A quarter would get us on the bus. Another quarter would get us on the right subway. $1.75 would get us into the bleachers and we still had enough for popcorn and a coke. After getting into the bleachers, we would wait until the fourth inning. That inning is when the ushers would give up their posts and us kids could filter down and sit in the many empty box seats. We would head straight for the Yankee dugout.


There are no words to describe Yankee Stadium, especially the old and original version. It was simply majestic. Unless, of course, your seat was behind one of the thousands of pillars that held each deck up. But those only came into play one day a year when we weren't in the upper bleachers and not down by the dugout, and that was Bat Day.


Bat Day was an annual event when the Yankees would give out a Louisville Slugger to the first 20,000 kids who came to the Stadium. That day was always packed to the rafters. Three or four times a game, all the kids would raise their bats in the air and there was a sea of them everywhere you looked. And when the Yankees were having a rally (which was rare in those days), the kids would pound their bats on the floor making a thundering echo all through the stadium.


The second most awesome event was double-headers when you could watch two games for the price of one. Of course, you needed an extra dollar or two for soda when that happened. We always got there early enough to watch the team play pepper and take batting practice. We loved to watch the pitchers and outfielders shag the flies in the outfield. And we always had our gloves in case of a foul ball, but it was never to be.


One real early memory was a trip to Yankee Stadium given to us by the Police Athletic League. The coach of the Fan's team took the entire team on a bus. The Fan asked if little brother could come along. Since little brother was also our team mascot, he was allowed. But the Fan was given a stern warning to make sure the little guy didn't get lost.


Well, you guessed it. The game ends and the team is filing out to the bus. The coach makes the count and one is missing: little brother. The Fan is given a stern look and sent after him. After looking everywhere, little brother is finally found having a nice conversation with a policeman. He just decided to make a new friend. Great!


Many memories of Yankee Stadium are so relished all these years later:

• - Looking up at the TV and radio booths and seeing Phil Rizzuto, our favorite "uncle."


• - Bob Sheppard's amazing and imperious voice.


• - The organist that made it sound so festive (there were no rock songs then).


• - The buzz of the live crowd. You can't imagine what that buzz feels like watching the game on television. But live, it's palpable.


• - The collective intake of breath when thousands of people stand at once to a fly ball to the outfield.


• - The collective groan when that fly ball falls short of the track.


• - The instantaneous cheering when something good happens. The excitement of the living crowd organism when a runner is legging out a double or triple.


• - Buying a scorecard from the vendor in the stadium entrance.


• - The patient and slow exit when thousands of people are leaving the stadium at the same time. The Fan doesn't ever remember someone being rude or pushy.


• - The chants that weren't provoked by the organ player that just happened naturally.


• - An outfielder responding to cheers or taunts by the fans.


• - The seventh inning stretch when everyone would stand and watch the grounds crew going over the infield.

They were all magical and humbling and thrilling memories. For a lower, middle class kid, the Fan was very privileged.


Another memory just popped up...this one of Shea. The Yankees were exiled there for a couple of years when Yankee Stadium was being rebuilt (and no, the improvements weren't an improvement on the original). The Fan is now seventeen and had a best friend named, Tom Cairoli, who would go on to be an accountant. He was a great guy and a few years older. He had an early mustang and it was a beautiful convertible with plush seats and even an eight track player!


The Orioles were in town for a double-header and the first game got in with no problem. After the first game ended, the skies opened up and it was just a deluge. It poured! In no time at all the field was flooded and the second game was called. Well the entire stadium had to empty at the same time because of the announcement. By the time we got outside Shea, it had stopped raining. But we were stuck in a sea of humanity on the wide sidewalk leading to the parking lot.


What looked like puddles on the sides of the sidewalk had no traffic at all. So the Fan pulled his friend's arm and said, "Let's go this way." We stepped off the sidewalk and the puddles ended up being oceans and we sank up to our thighs. Mr. Cairoli wasn't amused and gave his friend a look to kill.


We finally made it to his car and he was upset about having to sit on those custom seat covers with our wet pants, but it couldn't be helped. We started driving and came to discover that the major bridge we had to go over was closed (don't know if by rain or what). So we were diverted through one of the, umm...scarier parts of New York. We stopped at a stop light and if you can remember, even the Fords that were automatic had the shifter on the floor in between the seats.


While Mr. Cairoli was waiting for the light to turn green, the Fan put the car in neutral. The light turns green and Mr. Cairoli hits the gas and the engine revs but goes nowhere. By now, due to our surroundings, Mr. Cairoli is starting to have a panic attack. "Oh no! Not here! I can't break down here!!"


After suppressing a laugh for five seconds, the Fan told him to put the car in gear. For the second time in an hour, the Fan got a look that could kill.


There is always a saying that says you can never go home again. At the Fan's age, he can state for certain that this is true. The things of our youth are gone and replaced by condos. This is the case more literally as a big part of our childhood, Yankee and Shea Stadiums are history and new ball parks will take their place. But though you can't go home again, memories are ours and no one can take them away. Those memories provided by those two wonderful, but very different parks will be treasured always.


P.S. Those pictures are from Microsoft's Terranova satellite images. The Fan hopes they don't mind.

Some Records May Never Be Broken

Baseball Almanac may be the coolest website on earth. One of the most fun things to do while drinking a morning coffee is to search through their databases of all time leaders. While doing so, some of the lists show that some records will probably never be broken. Here is a sampling:

Batting

• At Bat/RBI Ratio - Babe Ruth: 26.35%. Nobody else comes close.
• At Bats - Pete Rose: 14,053. No one is within 1700. Omar Vizquel is the only active player in the top 30.
• Walks - Barry Bonds: 2558
• Batting Average - Ty Cobb: .366
• Grounding Into Double Plays - Cal Ripken, Jr.: 350. A dubious honor
• Home Run Percentage - Mark McGwire: 9.42%
• Isolated Power - Babe Ruth: .348. The active leader is Albert Pujols at .289
• Career On Base Percentage - Ted Williams: .482. One of the most incredible stats of all! Williams was on base nearly 50% of the time for his entire career.
• Outs - Pete Rose: 10,328. That's a lot of times making an out! To put into perspective, that's more times making an out than all but 18 players in history have ever had for At Bats for a career!
• Runs Produced - Ty Cobb: 4066. Runs produced is runs scored plus RBIs minus home runs.
• Strikeout Percentage - Joe Sewell: 1.6%. Amazing statistic!
• Triples - Sam Crawford: 309. No active player is even in the top 100.
• Doubles - Tris Speaker: 792. All the active players in the top 100 are in the twilight of their careers.

Pitching:

• Walks Allowed - Nolan Ryan: 2795. No one is within 900 of him. Two ancient active pitchers are 1500 behind him.
• Complete Games - Cy Young: 749. One of the safest records in sports. Young also owns the record for innings pitched, wins, losses, runs allowed and games started. All will never be broken.
• Hit by Pitch - Chick Fraser: 219. Randy Johnson is the active leader with 188.
• Shutouts - Walter Johnson: 110. Another of the safest of all records.
• Winning Percentage - Spud Chandler: .717