Bullpen arms with velocity increasing with age

Was there ever an age when so many different bullpen pitchers pitched with such high velocity? Nowadays, it seems that every bullpen has three to five guys who can throw the ball 95 MPH or higher. It's crazy. I happened to think of this last night while watching Chad Qualls and Matt Albers of the Astros pitch. Both pitchers came in throwing gas. Qualls averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball and topped out at 96.7. Albers averaged 95.7 MPH and also topped about at 96.6. How does this happen?

Chad Qualls is 36 years old. Shouldn't he be slowing down? But he is not. Here is his fastball velocity since his career started:

2004	91.4
2005	91.9
2006	92.6
2007	92.8
2008	92.6
2009	92.9
2010	92.1
2011	92.6
2012	93.1
2013	94

Isn't there something odd there that the older he gets, the more velocity he gets? Now let's look at Albers:

2006	92.2
2007	92.5
2008	91.1
2009	92.8
2010	92.5
2011	93.6
2012	93.7
2013	93.4

And keep in mind that he was throwing 95.7 MPH last night on average. This seems to go against what Dave Cameron was talking about this morning on velocity. Again, Qualls is 36 and Albers is 31. Shouldn't they be slowing down instead of speeding up?

Kevin Chapman also pitched for the Astros last night. He is 26 years old. He averaged 92.8 MPH on his fastball last year. He was also throwing over 95 last night.

I don't mean to pick on just the Astros here. But I see it all over. For example, Jake McGee of the Rays has increased his velocity on his fastball every season he's been in the big leagues. He is 28 now. Does that seem right? Last year, he averaged serious gas at 96.3 MPH. Last night, he averaged 97.7!

I will need time to ponder this. But it does not make physical sense. Cameron said in his piece that velocity decreases with age. These pitchers mentioned defy that. How are they doing it? Does it all happen in mechanics? What is the answer? I don't know, but it is worth looking into further.

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: April 2, 2014

Yesterday did not go nearly as well as Opening Day did for the picks. The tally ended up at .500 with the picks going 4-4 with one postponement. I should have known that CC Sabathia was always terrible as an Opening Day starter. The Diamondbacks did not start the season 0-4 as that team beat the Giants and Matt Cain. I picked the Rays to win again and they did not.

To me, today is the real Opening Day because for the first time in this baseball season, all thirty teams are in action and with the postponed game being played today, there are sixteen big games on the schedule. Baseball is back as a daily force. Yessss.

The picks:

• The Brewers over the Braves: Not that I am a big fan of Matt Garza and of his chances of pitching a great game, but I am not a fan of Aaron Harang, a pitcher the Brewers should get to early and often.
• The White Sox over the Twins: Felipe Paulino was a nice pickup by the White Sox in the off season. He has good stuff, though his command sometimes lacks. The Twins are going to struggle on offense and Chick Kevin Correa is just not a guy I count on.
• The Athletics over the Indians: This early game is the remake of the match up that was supposed to happen last night. I still like Scott Kazmir against his old team and over Corey Kluber.
• The Orioles over the Red Sox: This is an interesting game. First, was John Lackey's comeback last year for real? Secondly, how will Ubaldo Jimenez fare against tough AL East opponents? This is a hard game to pick.
• The Cubs over the Pirates: Edwin Jackson is such an enigma. This spring, for example, his strikeout to walk ratio was ten to one and he still gave up four runs per nine innings. Pittsburgh should be a good park for him to pitch and Charlie Morton is never a guy I trust.
• The Marlins over the Rockies: Sure, why not have the Marlins start the season at 3-0. Stranger things have happened. Henderson Alvarez and Jordan Lyles both had good springs. Both were efficient. Perhaps I am just too shell-shocked by all those Astros starts for Lyles.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Michael Wacha was dominant during the spring and looks pretty darned good at this point. Tony Cingrani is pretty good too, but not on the same plane as Wacha. The Cards also have the edge in the bullpen.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: This pick was wrong last night, but let's go the same way again today. Besides, I like Matt Moore over Mark Buehrle anyway. Though Buehrle can kill you quickly...and softly.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Old Shrek, or Bartolo Colon as most people call him, goes for the Mets with nothing but fastball strikes. The unpredictable Gio Gonzalez starts for the Nats. I like the Nats here.
• The Rangers over the Phillies: This series has been sort of weird so far. Both teams are kind of in flux. I'm taking the Rangers because Robbie Ross throws from the left side and that is a weakness of the Phillies. Kyle Kendrick goes for the Phillies.
• The Yankees over the Astros: Hiroki Kuroda should have a better start than Sabathia had and though Jarred Cosart is a promising young pitcher, his command is not all there yet.
• The Athletics over the Indians: Yeah, I don't know who is pitching for the A's as there is a TBO next to the slot. But the A's will come up with somebody good. Zach McAllister had a brutal spring but pitched well last season.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: I have no idea how Tim Hudson will do for the Giants this year. But I like his track record a whole lot better than Trevor Cahill's.
• The Angels over the Mariners: It's hard not to like the way the Mariners have started their season. And it's hard not to wonder if the Angels are going to start terribly again this year like last. But I will take Hector Santiago over James Paxton. At least, I think I will...
• The Dodgers over the Padres: The vaunted bullpen of the Dodgers is off to a rough start. I don't have much faith in Tyson Ross for the Padres and think Dan Haren of the Dodgers will be better.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Tigers over the Royals: Max Scherzer is now the ace of this Tigers' team with all due respect to Mr. Verlander. He should hold the Royals' lineup down while the Tigers should be able to deal with Jason Vargas.

Yesterday: 4-4

Games of the Day: 0-2

Season: 17-7

Thrilled for Grady Sizemore

I have to admit that I am a sucker for comeback stories. Sure, a part of me understands that a guy like Grady Sizemore has made millions of dollars in his short career and whether he ever played again wouldn't change that he has been more fortunate than most folks on the planet. But still, sports reflects life and Sizemore has been to the bottom and at least for one game, had come all the way back.

Admit it: Most of us were pretty skeptical when the Red Sox signed Grady Sizemore to a contract and invited him to their Spring Training camp. After all, he had not played in a MLB game since September 22, 2011. That was a long, long time ago. And we all had been privy to the litany of his physical problem: the microfracture surgeries, the elbow, back and hernia surgeries. It did not seem as if he was ever going to be healthy again.

We had seen him go from one of the best young players of the game from 2005 to 2008 when he compiled 26.8 fWAR, to a shell of that in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Sizemore became an example of just how fleeting success can be.  He was washed up at the age of 28.

So there was a bit of disbelief when the reigning World Series champs announced the signing. After all, the Red Sox had let Jacoby Ellsbury walk knowing they had Jackie Bradley Jr. in the wings. They had Daniel Nava and Mike Carp. What did they need Grady Sizemore for anyway? And why would they take a risk on a guy who had not played for the last two full seasons?

Some things seem inevitable. Guys like Reyes for the Blue Jays and DeJesus for the Rays were going to get hurt. Knowing these things, we waited for the inevitable to happen to Sizemore. Surely he would get hurt at some point during the spring. But he did not. And he had a very good spring and became the biggest story in the Red Sox Nation. And Lo and Behold, he not only made the team, but was tabbed as the starting center fielder over Bradley.

Seriously? How did that happen? Give the Red Sox credit. They are a smart organization. There had to be some within the organization that did not feel that Bradley was ready and that there is doubt that he will hit in the Majors. Bradley has looked over-matched by Big League pitchers.

The Red Sox took a long shot. And it came up aces. There is no guarantee, of course, that Grady Sizemore will either play well all season or stay healthy. There will continue to be doses of skepticism as time goes forward.

But for one glorious Opening Day, Grady Sizemore looked like the player of 2009 when he was on top of the world. He singled in his first at bat and then homered in his second. It was amazing to watch.

No, the Red Sox did not win the game. And Sizemore would probably have preferred that they did. But for one game at least, Grady Sizemore beat the odds and after a two-year absence, took center stage again and performed.

Let's take this one game at a time for Grady Sizemore and see what happens. And whether or not you love or hate the Red Sox, his story is one to root for and to marvel. I was thrilled for him. And I was thrilled for baseball.

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: April 1, 2014

The first semi-full day of Game Picks went very well. I was 11-0 until the Mariners beat the Angels and after a great pitching duel, the Indians scored two runs off of Jim Johnson to win that game, 2-0. But 11-2 on the first day of the season is quite nice. Let's see if I can keep it going.

There are nine games on the schedule. Only one is not a night game where the Padres will host the Dodgers for a 3:40 start in Pacific Time. Here are the picks:

• The Dodgers over the Padres: Zack Greinke has pitched really well (SSS) against the Padres in the past and the Dodgers hammered Ian Kennedy pretty hard last year. So the pick has to go with the Dodgers. I'm not sure how long Greinke will pitch in this game though.
• The Rockies over the Marlins: Nathan Eovaldi had a decent spring and looks more solid than in years past and how well Brett Anderson holds up will be a question all year for the Rockies. But I'm going with the Rockies in this one.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Jose Reyes hurt already. So sad. And no surprise. Hey, a question. If the Rays sign Alex Cobb to a nice extension, could it be said that they will tie Cobb up? Drew Hutchison is an exciting young pitcher. But the Rays are the pick.
• The Rangers over the Phillies: Wow! Did these two teams look awful yesterday. I like Martin Perez's left arm against the Phillies, though the young mad had a tough spring. A.J. Burnett makes his debut for the Phillies.
• The Braves over the Brewers: Alex Wood has looked terrific this spring. Will it transfer to the season? I am saying so. Besides, I have no real confidence in Kyle Lohse stopping the Braves for long.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Uh oh, the Dbacks are already 0-3. Matt Cain has gotten lost a bit for the Giants and he must rebound to give the Giants a chance. Cain has been pretty effective over the years at Chase Field. Wade Miley is hard to rely on for the Diamondbacks.
• The Athletics over the Indians: Scott Kazmir haunts his old team and Corey Kluber gets off to a rough start.
• The Mariners over the Angels: Maybe my trumpeting for the Angels was misplaced. Which is a nice way of saying dumb. The Angels again cannot seem to pitch. Erasmo Ramirez had a terrific spring but faces a tough lineup. C.J. Wilson goes for the Angels. To be honest, I have no idea who will win this game.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Yankees over the Astros: CC Sabathia has a lot to prove this year with diminished velocity on if he can still be an effective pitcher. He had a very good spring, so maybe he can. The Astros are better this year than last and Scott Feldman is not a bad starter. But the Yanks are the picks here.

Yesterday: 11-2

Games of the Day: 0-1

Season: 13-3

MLB Game Picks - Monday: March 31, 2014

Brian Wilson and his famous beard lost face with me last night as he blew my pick of the Dodgers to win the game. Hyun-jin Ryu had the Padres shut down and Wilson coughed it up. Oh well. It is a long season.

Today is the kind of Opening Day we have been longing for, but it is still incomplete as only 24 of the 30 teams will be in action. But let me pick what I have and save another Bud Selig diatribe for another day.

The picks

• The Pirates over the Cubs: I am a little worried picking Francisco Liriano because he missed most of Spring Training. But the Pirates have a good enough bullpen to finish what he starts. Jeff Samardzija starts for the Cubs.
• The Tigers over the Royals: How will James Shields react this year in a contract season? I would be he will be quite aggressive. But Justin Verlander has been great again this spring and is hard to pick against. I do feel a Joba Chamberlain implosion coming though.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Dillon Gee is tough at home, but the pick has to be Stephen Strasburg, no?
• The Phillies over the Rangers: Did you ever think you'd see the day when Tanner Scheppers would be the Opening Day pitcher for anyone? That is the kind of spring the Rangers have had. I'm going with Cliff Lee though the game is in Texas.
• The Brewers over the Braves: While I think that the Brewers might be a bit short on offense, Yovani Gallardo is always a threat at home. Julio Teheran is very good, but the pick is the Brewers.
• The Orioles over the Red Sox: I like the Orioles at home. Chris Tillman has to hold down a big lineup, but so does Jon Lester. And so it begins in the AL East!
• The White Sox over the Twins: Chris Sale looked sort of human during the spring, but it is tough to pitch in Arizona. Look for him to have a good day at home. Ricky Nolasco will be up and down all season.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: I have no idea what kind of team the Reds will have this year. And Johnny Cueto has beaten the Cards before. But I know what kind of team the Cards are and Adam Wainwright should do his thing.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: The battle of the ays starts early this year! David Price at home? Yeah. R.A. Dickey? No, not thinking that will stop the Rays.
• The Marlins over the Rockies: Jose Fernandez at home? Yes, please. He was untouchable at home last season. The Rockies go with Jorge De La Rosa, four names for the price of two.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: The Giants are another team that I cannot get a read on. I guess it depends on their pitching. I do know that I like Madison Bumgarner over Brandon McCarthy.
• The Athletics over the Indians: Sonny Gray was my guy all of last season. Whenever I picked him, he won. Let's see if it will carry over to this year. Justin Masterson goes for the Indians.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Angels over the Mariners: Jered Weaver goes for the Angels and the Angels are my pick for the surprise team of 2014, so the money has to go where the mouth is. Of course, Felix Hernandez will have something to say about that.

Yesterday: 0-1

Season : 2-1

Some nice stories heading into the MLB season

I wrote about Jason Bartlett making the Twins the other day and one of my long-time readers thought I was being mean. Point taken. I am a bit of a stickler on baseball teams putting their best product forward for fans who pay big bucks to watch those games. For example, the artificial delay of a prospect's career to delay his service time clock is an egregious sin in baseball. But the reader has a point. So today, let's focus on some nice stories to come out of Spring Training.

Let's start with Dean Anna, who made the Yankees 25-man roster after being drafted in the 26th round in 2008 and toiling six seasons in the minors without a crack at the Majors with the Padres. That's a nice story.

Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton had good springs after disastrous seasons a year ago. It's hard to say if that will carry into the season in the long haul. But it was nice to see them have some success again.

It was great to see Ryan Kalish make the Cubs after having all sorts of physical problems derail his career in Boston. And for that same team, it was nice to see Luis Valbuena get the starting nod at second base. His homer total in the spring is probably a fluke though.

It was great to see Brett Anderson have such a positive spring for the Rockies. When healthy, he is very, very good, but has had trouble staying healthy. That would be a nice story. It was also nice to see young Corey Dickerson make the team as the center fielder.

It was a very nice story when Chone Figgins made the Dodgers. I'm just a second chances kind of guy.

Casey McGehee and Jeff Baker making the Marlins is a very nice story. McGehee is trying to resurrect what was a dead career. I wish him well.

I find it hard to believe that Scooter Gennett will get the nod at second base over Rickie Weeks, but it sure is nice that someone named, "Scooter," is on a MLB roster. Zach Duke making the Brewers is also a nice story.

Jeff Manship's spring for the Phillies has been a nice story. And having him in the Majors gives us word nerds all kinds of fun things to do with his last name.

Travis Ishikawa making the Pirates is a nice story, especially with what the Brewers plan on doing at first base this season...

Xavier Nady made another team as a non-roster invitee--this time, the Padres.

Ehire Adrianza making the Giants is a nice story. Yeah, he was out of options, but the guy is only 24 and has already played eight seasons in the minors. Good for him!

Peter Bourjos apparently getting the starting nod for the Cardinals as that team's center fielder is a nice story. Bourjos had a great spring and makes the Cardinals much better defensively.

It is nice to see Tanner Roark and Taylor Jordan both heading north with the Nationals. Both deserve the chance, though the return of Doug Fister eventually will make a tough decision later.

Jonathan Schoop making the Orioles is both the right call and a great story.

Of course, Grady Sizemore getting the starting nod from the Red Sox is the good story above all other good stories. I am keeping my fingers crossed for him.

Marcus Semien has apparently made the White Sox and will play second base for them. That's a nice story.

Elliot Johnson making the Indians is a nice story. A guy as hilarious as him needs to be in the Majors.

Nick Castellanos has had a very good spring for the Tigers. I am excited for seeing how he does in his rookie season.

I am really excited to see what Yordano Ventura does this season for the Royals!

I am really excited to see if Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols have bounce-back seasons and for another year to see what else Mike Trout can amaze us with.

I wish Phil Hughes well in his career reboot with the Twins. I'll begrudgingly be glad that after a year out of the Majors, Jason Bartlett will get another chance.

It's a nice story that Sam Fuld made the Oakland A's as a reserve and I am excited to see what Sonny Gray can do over a whole season.

Abraham Almonte making the Mariners and being tabbed their starter in the outfield is a nice story to me because of his roots in the Yankees' minor league system.

Logan Forsythe is a nice story for the Bay Rays.

In a spring where not much has gone right for the Texas Rangers, Michael Choice making the team is a nice surprise and fun to watch.

And finally, I realize that it is out of necessity, but knowing how much Dustin McGowan has had to battle in his career, him being in the Blue Jays' rotation is really nice to see. And I am anxious to see how Drew Hutchison does too.

Happy Baseball Season everyone!

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: March 30, 2014

The opening of this baseball season is yet another legacy of Bud Selig as commissioner. Instead of an Opening Day we can all enjoy together, they come like dwarves to Bilbo's doorstep in dribs and drabs. Highly annoying.

Tonight we get the Dodgers at San Diego when the Dodgers are already one of the only two teams we've seen so far since they started the season in Australia a week ago. Tomorrow, we get twelve games and finally on Tuesday we get the rest of the teams that haven't played yet. Just call me Grouchy Smurf. I hate this!

But it is what it is and all the money that Bud Selig rubs against his body before he goes to bed at night cannot make us change it. So, it is time to stop grousing and pick the game already:

• The Dodgers over the Padres: I like the Padres this year and I like Andrew Cashner. But the Dodgers are very good and have Hyun-jin Ryu on the mound. He neutralizes guys like Will Venable and Yonder Alonso.

Enjoy the start of the season...and the start...and the start....

Season record: 2-0