MLB Game Picks - Friday: July 4, 2014

Happy 238th birthday, United States of America!

The picks had another fine day yesterday with a 6-3 record. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks put an early scare into the day by winning and putting the picks off to a tough start, but everything except for a Rangers' loss went according to predictions.

The Rangers loss peeved me a little bit. Yu Darvish was supposed to start, but he was pulled because of unknown weather. Come on now. I'm glad the Rangers can throw around losses with the season they are having. What a stupid thing. Don't you try to win every game?

Anyway, enjoy the holiday and holiday baseball. The picks:

• The Nationals over the Cubs: Gosh, they play this game at eleven o'clock in the morning today. Tanner Roark lost to the Cubs at Wrigley a week ago and will want to avenge that. Jason Hammel is adding to his resume for some team who might trade for him.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Jon Lester is making himself expensive either for the Red Sox who finally cough up the money or for somebody else next year. Miguel Gonzalez is the weakest of the Orioles' rotation.
• The Yankees over the Twins: Chase Whitley should have a decent game today in that big ballpark. Zealous Wheeler provided a spark and even though Kyle Gibson has had a successful season, his lack of strikeouts concern me against a team like the Yankees.
• The Athletics over the Blue Jays: I need to stop thinking of Tommy Milone as a liability for the A's. He's had a good season and has been steadily good for two months now. As a lefty, he eliminates Rasmus and Adam Lind from the picture. I also think the A's will get Marcus Stroman to throw too many pitches up front.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: The battle for Pennsylvania should be a bit of a mismatch today as Roberto Hernandez has no business beating the Pirates or Gerrit Cole. Should not the Philadelphia team always be home on July 4th? Seriously. It's Philadelphia's day more than any other.
• The Giants over the Padres: The combined records for Matt Cain and Eric Stults are 3-17. Ugh. When two pitchers have had that little success, you go with the better team...the Giants.
• The Indians over the Royals: The Indians love playing at home and Josh Tomlin was lights out his last time pitching. Yordano Ventura is the wild card as you never know if he will be brilliant or all over the place.
• The Tigers over the Bay Rays: To be honest, I have no idea which team will win this game. Alex Cobb has not been great since he came back from injury and that surprises me. The Emoticon, Drew Smyly had a good game against the Rangers and then stunk up the joint against the Astros. I have no idea.
• The Reds over the Brewers: The Cinderella season for Alfredo Simon continues and one more win today could land him at the All Star Game. Kyle Lohse is 9-2 himself and will not just roll over. Interesting game.
• The Mariners over the White Sox: Roenis Elias is the key to this pick. As a lefty, he should hurt the White Sox with Adam Dunn and Adam Eaton. Can the M's scratch out a couple of runs off of Chris Sale? That's the big question.
• The Mets over the Rangers: The Rangers so deserve to lose after dickering around with Yu Darvish. And isn't that hurricane going to threaten this game in New York today? Besides, I like Jon Niese.
• The Cardinals over the Marlins: Lance Lynn sure had a lynning his last time out. Can he avoid that big crooked number today? He is at home, so he should be comfortable at least. Nate Eovaldi should win more with his stuff, but doesn't.
• The Diamondbacks over the Braves: This is my upset pick of the day. The Braves are at home and Ervin Santana can have a good game and make this look bad. But Josh Collmenter has been like the D-backs' good luck charm with his winning record in a losing season.
• The Angels over the Astros: Dallas Keuchel is back and has had a nice season. But his left-handedness is not as much a factor against the Angels. C.J. Wilson should win at home today.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Clayton Kershaw. Do I need to say more? Yes, his breaking stuff will not break as much at Coors and his scoreless streak will come to an end. But he will win. The Rockies are starting Jair Jurrjens! Remember him? This cannot go well...

Yesterday: 6-3, July: 27-13, Games of the Day: 47-42, Season: 709-588

MLB Game Picks - Monday: June 23, 2014

Yesterday's picks broke through a little bit after a string of bad days. There were only five incorrect picks out of fifteen. One was Yu Darvish. Why doesn't he ever win when I pick him. The other incongruity was Masahiro Tanaka losing. It must have been a bad day for Japanese aces. I had picked the Cubs and Jason Hammel did have a good day. But the Cubs can't hit and lost. And then there is the Kansas City Royals who were swept by Seattle in their home ballpark. What the heck, man?

But it was a good day. I watched a little of the Yankees game, but it was so bad that it wasn't worth leaving the pool for long to watch. So I went by the pool. Gosh, can a team do any worse at leaving runners on base?

Monday's picks:

• The Orioles over the White Sox: I can see Chris Sale shutting down the Orioles. I can also see Wei-Yin Chen shutting down the White Sox. So then it becomes a bullpen battle and both teams are about the same there. But the Orioles' batters are better. So I am going with the home team.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: I have gone back and forth on this one. The Marlins should tee off on Roberto Hernandez, but I have my concerns about Nathan Eovaldi. I mean the guy is averaging 95.7 MPH on his fastball. How is he also averaging 8.7 hits allowed per nine? From what I can see, the guy needs to ditch his slider and stick with the curve.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: This one is colored by my total irritation with the team from the Bronx. But there is logic as well. Marcus Stroman is a good arm and the Yankees don't do well with big arms and Stroman will learn from his first start against them. Chase Whitley has been a wonderful surprise, but aren't you waiting for the other shoe to drop? I am and it may be today.
• The Reds over the Cubs: The Cubs hope that Jeff Samardzija starts pitching really well to up his value as much as possible. The trouble is that his team still can't hit and Alfredo Simon is the biggest surprise of the year.
• The Royals over the Dodgers: I have a feeling that all those ghosts of Kansas City will come down to haunt Zack Greinke today. Yeah, that was a lot of water over the bridge a long time ago, but still. Jeremy Guthrie's fastball has ticked up a couple of notches and he has been sitting at 93 his last couple of games. That makes a huge difference for him.
• The Brewers over the Nationals: The Nats might have a leddown after the Braves' series and Gio Gonzalez and his left arm won't affect the Brewers' lineup as much as others. Matt Garza is the key to the game and how he pitches will determine who wins.
• The Cardinals over the Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin is not having a good season. Lance Lynn could certainly have a lynning at Coors. But he is a better bet here than the other way around.
• The Mariners over the Red Sox: I pick Felix Hernandez and when I do, he never lives up to expectations...or his team takes him out too early and the bullpen goes all flooey on me. John Lackey is a worthy adversary though.
• The Giants over the Padres: This could be interesting. The Padres' pitcher has been a bit of a mystery. First of all, most of the sites say TBD or to be determined. Yahoo says it will be Odrisamer Despaigne, who may inherit the title as the hardest name in baseball to spell. He is a Cuban just signed this year. Expect a lot of strikeouts and walks. Matt Cain is the safer pick.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Rays over the Pirates: The Rays are playing much better and it all starts with pitching. The team is getting better starting pitching and things flow well from there. Alex Cobb over Edinson Volquez.

Yesterday: 10-5, June: 164-141, Games of the Day: 41-38, Season: 617-522

MLB Game Picks - Friday: June 6, 2014

Yesterday was pretty bad as the picks tanked heavily on the negative side. The Rockies pitching got tanked the entire series with the Diamondbacks. The Marlins continue to surprise while the Rays and Tigers continue to lose. The Marlins are now tied for first place in the NL East. Imagine that! The Blue Jays faced two great teams in a row and won every single game. That is quite impressive. If only the picks reflected those results.

At least the Game of the Day is trying desperately to make a comeback and was correct for the fourth straight day.

Friday's picks:

• The Cubs over the Marlins: Yes, I know what I just typed above. But here me out. Jason Hammel has pitched extremely well and should be a great pickup by someone in a trade deadline deal. Nathan Eovaldi is better at home than on the road. This is one of those Friday afternoon games at Wrigley.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: Kyle Lohse's season has been very much overlooked. The guy just knows how to pitch. He doesn't have much stuff, so if he misses location he could get stuffed. That is the risk. Brandon Cumpton doesn't yet look ready for prime time.
• The Athletics over the Orioles: Can you pick against the Orioles on most nights? Wei-Yin Chen would bother a lot of teams in his own division. But the A's hit lefties well. Tommy Milone should have a good night as well.
• The Blue Jays over the Cardinals: Heck, the Blue Jays have annihilated the competition thus far. I think they will hit two dingers off of Lance Lynn and Marcus Stroman will continue to say hello to the Major Leagues.
• The Red Sox over the Tigers: The Tigers are down and The Emoticon, Drew Smyly has not been very good. Rubby De La Rosa, on the other hand, was really impressive in his first start.
• The Reds over the Phillies: Did Cole Hamels do bad things as a child? He never gets a break. For example, today he faces one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in Johnny Cueto. Good luck with that. Oh wait, Hamels doesn't have good luck.
• The Bay Rays over the Mariners: The Red Sox snapped their losing streak at ten, so the thinking here is that the Rays will too. Chris Young has a 0.87 WHIP at home and 1.400 on the road. Erik Bedard gets it done.
• The Rangers over the Indians: The Indians have been on a big roll and the success of Trevor Bauer has been a big reason. But they and he run into Yu Darvish tonight. Sorry about that.
• The Twins over the Astros: I still worry about Phil Hughes and the long ball and with George Springer and now Jon Singleton, that could be a factor in this one. But if he keeps it in the park, Hughes will be better than Dallas Keuchel in a close game.
• The Yankees over the Royals: With Beltran and Teixeira back, the Yankees will break out tonight from there "score two-run" blues. Jeremy Guthrie has never had much success against them. Chase Whitley is getting stretched out further and further and has been stingy in giving up runs.
• The Rockies over the Dodgers: I love how I keep blindly picking the Rockies despite the fact that their pitching has been awful. Eddie Butler is being brought up from Double-A, and that would be enough to scare me. But he does not give up homers. That would work. Can you believe that Hyun-jin Ryu has never pitched at Coors?
• The Angels over the White Sox: If Jered Weaver can stay away from Jose Abreu's bat barrel, he should be okay in this one. Andre Rienzo has been pretty good, but the Angels have all their bats back.
• The Nationals over the Padres: The Nats have started to gel and Tanner Roark is a lot better than his record indicates. The NL East is still wide open. Tyson Ross has had some nice games for the Padres. But will he get any run support?
• The Giants over the Mets: The pitching match-up of Jon Niese and Matt Cain favors the Mets, but the Giants always find a way to win.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Braves over the Diamondbacks: The D-backs have scored about a hundred runs in their last three games at Coors. They have to be tired. They did not face anyone like Julio Teheran while there. Brandon McCarthy is not fooling anyone this season.

Yesterday: 4-7 (ugh), June: 33-31, Games of the Day: 30-32, Season: 489-408

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: April 1, 2014

The first semi-full day of Game Picks went very well. I was 11-0 until the Mariners beat the Angels and after a great pitching duel, the Indians scored two runs off of Jim Johnson to win that game, 2-0. But 11-2 on the first day of the season is quite nice. Let's see if I can keep it going.

There are nine games on the schedule. Only one is not a night game where the Padres will host the Dodgers for a 3:40 start in Pacific Time. Here are the picks:

• The Dodgers over the Padres: Zack Greinke has pitched really well (SSS) against the Padres in the past and the Dodgers hammered Ian Kennedy pretty hard last year. So the pick has to go with the Dodgers. I'm not sure how long Greinke will pitch in this game though.
• The Rockies over the Marlins: Nathan Eovaldi had a decent spring and looks more solid than in years past and how well Brett Anderson holds up will be a question all year for the Rockies. But I'm going with the Rockies in this one.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Jose Reyes hurt already. So sad. And no surprise. Hey, a question. If the Rays sign Alex Cobb to a nice extension, could it be said that they will tie Cobb up? Drew Hutchison is an exciting young pitcher. But the Rays are the pick.
• The Rangers over the Phillies: Wow! Did these two teams look awful yesterday. I like Martin Perez's left arm against the Phillies, though the young mad had a tough spring. A.J. Burnett makes his debut for the Phillies.
• The Braves over the Brewers: Alex Wood has looked terrific this spring. Will it transfer to the season? I am saying so. Besides, I have no real confidence in Kyle Lohse stopping the Braves for long.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Uh oh, the Dbacks are already 0-3. Matt Cain has gotten lost a bit for the Giants and he must rebound to give the Giants a chance. Cain has been pretty effective over the years at Chase Field. Wade Miley is hard to rely on for the Diamondbacks.
• The Athletics over the Indians: Scott Kazmir haunts his old team and Corey Kluber gets off to a rough start.
• The Mariners over the Angels: Maybe my trumpeting for the Angels was misplaced. Which is a nice way of saying dumb. The Angels again cannot seem to pitch. Erasmo Ramirez had a terrific spring but faces a tough lineup. C.J. Wilson goes for the Angels. To be honest, I have no idea who will win this game.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Yankees over the Astros: CC Sabathia has a lot to prove this year with diminished velocity on if he can still be an effective pitcher. He had a very good spring, so maybe he can. The Astros are better this year than last and Scott Feldman is not a bad starter. But the Yanks are the picks here.

Yesterday: 11-2

Games of the Day: 0-1

Season: 13-3

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: September 18, 2013

Although I had a decent picking day and am having a good picking week, a failure milestone was reached yesterday. I went past a thousand incorrect picks for the season yesterday. While I know from four years of experience that such a failure rate will occur, it is one of those numbers that brings reality home. I have been wrong a thousand times this season. I am pretty sure that this is the earliest I have reached the mark as this has been a difficult season.

It is hard to believe that there are only eleven days left in the season. Wednesday's picks:

• The White Sox over the Twins: The battle of bad teams continues and the White Sox have won the first two games of the series. A sweep is in sight in this getaway day game. John Danks should finally get a win and Scott Diamond has the bullpen lose it late.
• The Athletics over the Angels: A.J. Griffin at home is a really solid pick. Jason Vargas is capable of putting up a good game, especially in a big ballpark like the Coliseum. I expect low scoring and a tight game.
• The Braves over the Nationals: The Nats have won nine out of ten and are surging perhaps a bit too late to reach the Reds. They are still four and a half games out. While Ross Ohlendorf has been amazing, I think Alex Wood will be better.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: This is a battle of fringe Major League pitchers. Zach Minor has had several turns in the Majors but has never been able to stick. He has pitched thirteen times in relief for Philly, but this is his first start. Nathan Eovaldi has had a good game here and there with a bunch of mediocrity thrown in.
• The Pirates over the Padres: The Padres have beaten the Pirates two days in a row with some nice pitching. Either that or the Pirates bats have gone in a slump. The good news for the Pirates is that Tyson Ross is not nearly as good as the first two pitchers they faced in this series. Charlie Morton with the win.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Have you ever watched Survivor and one of the challenges is trying to stack these wooden card pieces to a certain height? That reminds me of the Yankees season. The Yankees come to the next to last week with their cards stacked wobbly near the top only to all come crashing down before reaching the end.  J.A. Happ over Phil Hughes.
• The Tigers over the Mariners: Hisashi Iwakuma has had a very nice season. And he should do well in the Tigers' big ballpark. So the question remains of what Justin Verlander shows up. He looked much more dominant his last outing. I have to go with Verlander at the end of the season and the Tigers' lineup.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: I was wrong here yesterday and this pick is no guaranteed one either. Wei-Yin Chen has faltered this season after a strong debut season a year ago. I have to believe that he is not really healthy. Jake Peavy needs to prove his case for the post season. In my mind, he has not done that yet. I am still rooting for Chris Davis though.
• The Rangers over the Rays: This is one of those reverse logic picks. Derek Holland has not pitched well this season and even worse of late. So naturally, he is screaming for me to pick against him. But then he shuts down the Rays and the Rangers score a few off of Chris Archer and foul it all up. I got you.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: This is a battle for youngsters trying to make a mark in the Big Leagues. Tyler Thornburg has made a better impression so far than Chris Rusin has. So that is my pick.
• The Astros over the Athletics: This is my upset special of the day. Brad Peacock has won his last two starts and four of his last six decisions. He has elevated his K-rate while lowering his walk rate. Combine those facts with the A's starting journeyman, Greg Reynolds, and you have a recipe for an upset.
• The Royals over the Indians: These two teams beating each other up what I see. They have taken turns winning this series. Bruce Chen has a winning percentage at home over the years over .600 and that is too convincing for me to not pick him over Danny Salazar.
• The Cardinals over the Rockies: Adam Wainwright did not pitch well the last time he was at Coors Field. He lives on the curveball and it will not curve as much in that park at that altitude. But the Cardinals are good enough to win a slugfest and I am still not convinced by Tyler Chatwood.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: A win here would clinch the division for the Dodgers. But that day will be postponed a day as Brandon McCarthy has a good game and the random sighting of Stephen Fife doesn't work this time.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Giants over the Mets: The Giants have had their way this series and I expect it to continue tonight. Aaron Harang has Citi Field to help him with dinger-control. But the Giants have Matt Cain on the mound and I think that trumps it.

Yesterday: 10-6

Week: 28-14

Month: 131-106

Season: 1273-1001

Games of the Day: 97-67

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: September 7, 2013

Something strange happened yesterday. Strange for this week anyway. I had a good picking night and got the Game of the Day pick correctly. Imagine that! After a really bad start Sunday and Monday, the picks are finally in the black. Hey! That qualifies for a come from behind victory. Here is the post pick interview:

FoxSports - William, you really pulled that week out of a deep hole. Did you think you would make it back like you did?

William - I just kept grinding and putting together good picks. I knew that if I did that, I would come out okay.

FoxSports - That was brilliant the way you picked a San Diego team that started Burch Smith.

William - Every night is a different hero. Everyone is doing their part and I am just trying to fit in and contribute.

FoxSports - Thank you, William. Congratulations on your day.

Did I get all the cliches in there? If I did not, just listen to John Farrell's post game interview. He nailed them all.

Saturday's picks:

• The Red Sox over the Yankees: No David Robertson. No Boone Logan. The Yankees are starting David Huff, AKA, David Hassle Huff and I think the Red Sox will score some runs for John Lackey. Geez, what a time for the Yankees' bullpen to lose it after it being their strength all year.
• The Orioles over the White Sox: The poor White Sox. Is there any way they can win a game? Eight straight losses now and counting. Too bad they have become the designated patsies among the AL East. Wei-Yin Chen over Hector Santiago.
• The Reds over the Dodgers: Wow! What a potential match-up! Two of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now with Mat Latos and Zack Greinke. Woo! I am going with Latos because he is home and because one of these guys has to win the game.
• The Athletics over the Astros: I almost looked like the Astros were going to beat the A's in two straight games. But, alas, the sad team from Houston lost it in the end. I like Brett Oberholtzer a lot and he has been good for the Astros. But the A's are just too good a team and will win at home with Dan Straily.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta is not my most reliable choice as a starting pitcher. But he has to be the pick when poor Johnny Hellweg continues his rude introduction to the Major Leagues.
• The Indians over the Mets: I really sort of think the Mets might win this game as Jonathon Niese has been pitching really well. But the Indians seem to have some sort of charm about them right now and somehow, they will win late. Corey Kluber makes a start after missing a bunch of time.
• The Tigers over the Royals: I think the combined and average score for the Tigers against both the Indians and Royals is like 17-3. Every game seems like a blowout. Justin Verlander is not the same as he has been. But he can win this one I think. Danny Duffy has had a nice start to his rebirth in MLB, but reality sets in a bit here.
• The Twins over the Blue Jays: One of my least favorite things in life is picking Kevn Correia to win a ballgame. But if I have to pick between him or J.A. Happ, one of them has to get the win and it might as well be the guy pitching at home.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Nathan Eovaldi has been making a monkey out of me and keeps pitching well. When I finally get tired of that and pick him today, he'll probably get beat up. Tanner Roark has made nine MLB appearances and yet somehow that knowledge totally eluded me. I had never heard of him before. How does that happen? He is 4-0 in relief. He will be 0-1 as a starter.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: This NL Central is like Rocky movie with all the changes in momentum. The Cards do not hit lefties well and Jeff Locke is one of those. But Locke has hit a wall after pitching well all season. Adam Wainwright has not been ace-like lately. He will have to be tonight.
• The Rockies over the Padres: It is a battle of Ty's as Tyler Chatwood squares up against Tyson Ross. I have no idea which will win. They are both rather fungible.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: How did that grit and dirt do for the D-backs this year? Not very much after all is said and done. I really like Brandon McCarthy, but I cannot pick him to win. Matt Cain has been his old self in the second half.
• The Angels over the Rangers: The Rangers are going to pooch this aren't they? The offense just isn't there. Derek Holland always lets me down. Garrett Richards has been pitching pretty well.
• The Rays over the Mariners: This game is rather interesting. Chris Archer will probably win. But James Paxton is making his MLB debut. He is a former #1 draft pick (2009) for the Mariners who did well in the minors until he hit the PCL. But the PCL is murder on pitching. So he is one of those guys who could actually be better in the Majors.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Braves over the Phillies: Yeah, this pick did not go well yesterday. But I really like Alex Wood and I really like the Braves' chances against Kyle Kendricks. They are a strikeout-prone team hitting against a guy who does not strike out people.

Yesterday: 10-5

Week: 43-39

Month: 43-39

Season: 1185-934

Games of the Day: 89-64