MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 6, 2014

At least I was half right yesterday. I did predict the Royals finishing off their unbelievable sweep of the Angels. C.J. Wilson continued his string of post season clunkers and I just knew that he would have nothing to offer yesterday. It's sort of a shame to have a great season like the Angels did only to not win a single playoff game. But that's baseball and huzzahs to the Royals and the team's fans for a great series victory and a chance to face the Orioles in the ALCS.

I did not pick the Orioles to sweep yesterday and I should have. They are a juggernaut right now and will be tough for anybody to beat. Everything they have is working including manager, Buck Showalter. Congrats to the Orioles and that team's fans as well.

Now it is the NLDSs' turn. Will the Nationals go the way of the Angels and the Tigers? Can they win a post season game? And the Cardinals and Dodgers is the only series so far where both teams have won a game. What will happen there?

The picks:

• The Nationals over the Giants: Remember this season how every streak ended at ten? If a team lost ten in a row, that team would win the eleventh. If a team won ten in a row, that team would lose the eleventh. It happened all season. That is why I pick the Nationals. Madison Bumgarner is as good as it gets. But Doug Fister is nearly as good and also has a great post season repertoire. None of the other series have been able to avoid the sweep. But because of the ten game rule, I have to go with the Nationals.

• The Cardinals over the Dodgers: I have looked at this game from every angle. First, Hyun-jin Ryu beat the Cardinals last year in the playoffs with a scoreless outing. Secondly, he has pitched better on the road this year than at home, which surprised me. But he hasn't pitched since September 12 and I have to wonder how healthy he is. And after being out that long, will he pitch for long in this game? And if not, will the bullpen hold up? Then there is John Lackey. If the country's baseball fans already hate the Cardinals, how much will that be ramped up with Lackey on the mound. The guy is not exactly easy to like. But he has a ton of post season experience. Can he be better than he was for the Cardinals after the trade? I don't know. But that's my final call. The Cardinals at home with Lackey against a guy with uncertain health.

Yesterday: 1-1, Post season: 3-9, Season: 1368-1099

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: September 6, 2014

I'm not having a good morning. I was really tired last night and went to bed way early for me. I woke up to get the puppy from his room and he had pooped and peed all over it. Happy Saturday, William! Then I got to the picks from yesterday and there were four extra-inning games. Three of them went against the picks. Besides that, the Orioles and Yankees were shut out.

The final ugly tally was a 6-8 day with one suspended game to be finished today. So it could actually get worse depending on how that turns out. Oh, and the Astros beat the A's. You can't predict ball.

Saturday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Rays: This could be wrong again if The Emoticon, Drew Smyly, has a good day. Kevin Gausman certainly has the ability to shut the Rays down. Perhaps the O's know they are so far ahead that it matters little.
• The Giants over the Tigers: You have two great left-handed aces going here in Madison Bumgarner and David Price. They are even in my book. So if they cancel each other out, the Giants' bullpen is slightly better than the Tigers'. This game is too close to call.
• The Athletics over the Astros: For the first time all season, I don't know what to do with Scott Kazmir. He has fallen apart and his old control issue is back. Was it just a couple of bad games? Will he put it back together? Can the A's muster any offense these days? Scott Feldman hopes not.
• The Yankees over the Royals: I don't know why I am doing this. Yesterday should have discouraged me enough on the Bronx team from ever picking them again. But I like Brandon McCarthy at Yankee Stadium in a day game. Of course, Danny Duffy is very impressive these days. I am probably throwing this pick away.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: Tanner Roark had a bad game his last time out in Seattle. I still trust him more than A.J. Burnett. But the Nats' defense and bullpen leave a lot to be desired. Every game the Phillies win here down the stretch adds to Amaro's delusion.
• The Cubs over the Pirates: Felix Doubront has gotten a new life in Chicago. He was so far south in the Red Sox' doghouse. I think he can beat Francisco Liriano with those young bats behind him.
• The Reds over the Mets: Johnny Cueto should not allow the Mets to pile up runs again like yesterday. Dillon Gee has been disappointing. The Reds can't hit these days though. By the way, I called that Granderson homer yesterday.
• The Indians over the White Sox: What do you do when a pitcher has been god-like most of the year and suddenly loses three in a row? Do you stick with Corey Kluber or bail? I don't know, frankly. Carlos Quintana never gets a break and his quality has gone down a bit now. Cleveland at home is what I am basing this pick.
• The Twins over the Angels: Oh what the heck, let's go with Phil Hughes. The Twins took the Angels to extra-innings before losing yesterday and Hughes is their stopper. Corey Rasmus starting for the Angels forces their bullpen to come up big.
• The Braves over the Marlins: I simply cannot rely on Nathan Eovaldi to pitch well to pick the Marlins. Yeah, Stanton is killing the ball right now as are some of his teammates, but Eovaldi sours me. Alex Wood is going for the Braves.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: First let me say that A.J. Pierzynski is such a jerk that it still angers me that he got a job after the Red Sox let him go. Him saying something on the way back to the dugout is typical of the kind of jerk he is. He is an embarrassment to the Cardinals. Lance Lynn over his old buddy, Kyle Lohse.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Clay Buchholz seems to be back to the star pitcher he once was. For now... J.A. Happ seems to be running out of tricks to keep what was a promising season going. My only problem here is that Buchholz's recent success does not include his home appearances where he is routinely awful.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: Regression has been calling Chris Young's name. Nick Martinez has been awful. So the final score here could be double-figures for both. Ugly game to pick.
• The Rockies over the Padres: Jorge De La Rosa just got an extension to his contract and thus should be a happy man. He has weathered Coors Field just about better than anyone. Joe Wieland is young (24) and gets his first big league appearance since 2012. I like him a lot because he has great control. But it is too bad he has to start his rebirth at Coors.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: I cannot see anything but good things for a game started in L.A. by Hyun-jin Ryu. Chace Anderson will try to battle to keep his team in the game, but the Dodgers should win this one.

Yesterday: 6-8, Sept.: 34-31, Games of the Day: 88-60 (+3), Season: 1164-965

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: August 13, 2014

Picking baseball games is like playing golf. You can have several bad holes and really mess it up for a while and then suddenly hit three gorgeous shots and get a birdie. It is the birdie that keeps you coming back for more. After several shanks the past three days, I hit a birdie last night and went 10-3. And there were some tough calls in there.

Of the three I got wrong, you could tell yesterday that I really wanted to pick the Cubs and I did not dare to. I should have. The Cardinals seem to have gone down the same rabbit hole as the Yankees and it is hard to understand. Miami completely beat them and Adam Wainwright. The Tampa - Texas game was correct for six and a half innings until Joel Peralta coughed up the lead and then of course, the pick became incorrect once it went into extra innings.

At least I got a birdie today and can't wait for my next shot again. Wednesday's picks:

• The Reds over the Red Sox: I liked what I saw in Anthony Ranaudo when he pitched against the Yankees. The only thing about it was that he was facing the Yankees, who are terrible. So it is hard to gauge how good he is. That said, I'm going with Mike Leake, a more proven entity.
• The Twins over the Astros: I've flip-flopped the picks on this series so far and got them both correct. Let's see if I can go three for three. I like Kyle Gibson over Brett Oberholtzer.
• The White Sox over the Giants: Jose Quintana remains the best pitcher with a losing record in baseball. Either he gets no run support or the bullpen blows up his victories. The Giants are reeling and Jake Peavy has been even more snake bit than Quintana. Which one will have more bad mojo?
• The Indians over the Diamondbacks: The rain out yesterday allowed the Indians to bypass T.J. House. Instead they will go today with Trevor Bauer in the first game who goes against Andrew Chafin, making his MLB debut. Chafin was a #1 round draft pick in 2011 whose minor league numbers look ordinary.
• The Indians over the Diamondbacks: Frankly, I don't know why the D-backs bypassed Josh Collmenter with the rain out. He is infinitely more reliable than either Chafin or Vidal Nuno who is pitching the second game. I will go with Josh Tomlin.
• The Padres over the Rockies: The Padres have been on a nice roll and the Rockies on the opposite. Ian Kennedy should win this one. Tyler Matzek keeps on pitching and never seems to have his record change. It's weird.
• The Orioles over the Yankees: This is the Orioles' year. It just seems written down already somewhere. Chris Tillman gets the start and will look infinitely easy to hit but the Yankees will not hit, at least not when it counts. Big Michael Pineda is back for the Yankees, but how long will he last and what will he have? And can he pitch without pine tar?
• The Pirates over the Tigers: The Tigers are starting Buck Farmer. He raises deer apparently. No, seriously, he is a fifth round draft pick in 2013 who has only logged 32 outings in the minors so far, none above Double-A. His numbers look good. But I'll go with Vance Worley, which looks safer.
• The Dodgers over the Braves: The Dodgers' lead in the NL West has grown to six games and they are starting to run away and hide. Hyun-jin Ryu is as steady as it gets with only one bad outing in his last ten. Ervin Santana has had a pretty good year himself.
• The Marlins over the Cardinals: Trading for Justin Masterson was a mistake for the Cardinals. Perhaps he will figure it out some time this year. Or perhaps not. Either way, the Cardinals do not have time to find out. Nathan Eovaldi is good at home.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: Yeah, I'm going for it. I like Kyle Lohse, but not as much at Wrigley Field. The Brewers are the best team in their division, but are a little weaker against lefties. Tsuyoshi Wada has made five big league starts and four of them have been very good.
• The Rays over the Rangers: The Rangers are playing a little bit better these days. But their pitching is still the problem. Miles Mikolas is not winning. Chris Archer, on the other hand, is very good. Keep Peralta out of the game and the Rays win.
• The Royals over the Athletics: The A's broke the Royals streak last night and could do so again with Scott Kazmir on the mound. The one problem is that Kazmir has been touched up in his last two starts. Has he hit a wall? Jason Vargas is a lefty. That's about all the good I can muster. But that is good enough to win in MLB.
• The Angels over the Phillies: With A.J. Burnett and Jered Weaver pitching tonight, this game feels like a high-scoring affair. If it is, the advantage goes to the Angels. Burnett should have retired.
• The Mariners over the Blue Jays: I simply cannot pick against Hisashi Iwakuma at home. He is killer there (and pretty much everywhere else too). R.A. Dickey could have a nice outing, but you never know.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Nationals over the Mets: It's hard to pick against Shrek Bartolo Colon. After all, the guy has won 200 big league games. But he has clunkers too and you never know what you will get with him. Jordan Zimmermann is a stud.

Yesterday: 10-3, August: 90-74, Games of the Day: 70-54 (+1), Season: 984-821

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: August 7, 2014

I thought August had turned a corner with that good day on Tuesday. But Wednesday fell down again to the depression level. Chris Sale lost for crying out loud. Dan Haren pitched great. Dan Haren!? Toronto beat Baltimore and the Yankees beat the Tigers with the exact same score of 5-1. I got them both wrong. I went one game too many with the Marlins.

But the worst blow was that my Sonny Gray lost badly. It was Sonny Gray Day and it went pffftt.

Thursday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Mets: Jacob deGrom is one of my favorite picks. I liked him so much I picked him up on my fantasy team. I've always liked Jordan Zimmermann too. So who to pick? Zimmermann has only given up four total runs in his last four home outings. I have to go that way.
• The Tigers over the Yankees: The Yankees have faced three former Cy Young Award winners in a row and won two of those games. And now they face Rick Porcello who has won thirteen games already. Somehow, the Yankees keep pitching these no-names and the job has gotten done. I just don't see Shane Greene being better than Porcello. It also makes a big difference when Mark Teixeira cannot play.
• The Brewers over the Giants: Is Jake Peavy snake bit or what? He doesn't deserve a 1-11 record and he won't deserve to lose today. But he will. Wily Peralta at home is a good pick.
• The Cubs over the Rockies: This pick didn't go well yesterday, so why pick the Cubs? Kyle Hendricks has been terrific in his last three starts for the Cubs, but two of them have been in big ballparks. Today he is at Coors. Yohan Flande goes for the Rockies and he has been decent at times but is 0-3. He is a lefty and the Cubs have a nice split against lefties.
• The Astros over the Phillies: Now I am going all nuts here. Collin McHugh is a strikeout pitcher going against a team that strikes out. Roberto Hernandez is due for a smack down game. The Astros haven't been hitting though. I'm probably an idiot.
• The Pirates over the Marlins: I don't like this pick either way. Brian Flynn was part of the deal that sent Anibal Sanchez to the Tigers. He has made five big league starts that haven't gone well. His control has been the problem. Edinson Volquez has a proven track record of bad pitching, but has been decent in 2014. I don't know...
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: J.A. Happ has beaten the Orioles already this season and seems to match up well against them. Miguel Gonzalez is still the Orioles' weakest member of the rotation.
• The Reds over the Indians: Homer Bailey can be such a Jekyll and Hyde guy. You never know what to expect out of him. T.J. House had a good outing his last time out so for this pick, Bailey better be on his good side today.
• The Cardinals over the Red Sox: Adam Wainwright has been on the every other game plan lately with a great start followed by a bad start. He is due for a great one, so that's the pick. Brandon Workman goes for the Red Sox.
• The Royals over the Diamondbacks: Vidal Nuno has pitched well for the Diamondbacks with nothing to show for it. So it's hard to pick him here. My only problem with that is expecting Jeremy Guthrie to win. That isn't appealing either.
• The Dodgers over the Angels: This game really is too close to call. On the one hand, Hyun-jin Ryu can be terrific but he is a lefty and the Angels hit those well. On the other hand, C.J. Wilson has not been pitching well. I have no idea who will win this one.
• The Mariners over the White Sox: The White Sox' pitching has fallen apart lately and Scott Carroll can probably keep the White Sox in the game. But what happens after he is out of the game? If Adam Eaton is going to miss the game, which is most likely, then Roenis Elias won't have many problems facing the White Sox.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Athletics over the Twins: Jon Lester gets his second start for the A's and though the first one did not go that well, he still won the game. He will be better today against the Twins and Yohan Pino won't get in the way of a win for the A's.

Yesterday: 7-8, August: 43-39, Games of the Day: 67-52 (+2), Season: 937-786

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: August 2, 2014

Friday made it three days in a row where the picks finished just under .500. Mediocrity is my name. Hey, did you notice that my Game of the Day was the Oakland A's and they were shut out a day after trading Yoenis Cespedes. Coincidence? Something to keep an eye on at least. Another bad pick was when Peralta was more Wily than Adam Wainwright. Oof. Another wrong pick was when Mike Minor's problems got more major on Friday as he was wrecked by the Padres.

I did get the Cubs over the Dodgers as Dan Haren continues to get hammered. And I also got the Red Sox over the Yankees. The young Anthony Renaudo did pitch well, but it really was a BABIP game as the Yankees hit a lot of at-em balls. And that Mookie Betts catch? Unbelievable...

Saturday's picks:

• The Athletics over the Royals: Jon Lester has arrived in Oakland and makes his debut against the Royals. Jason Vargas is the Royals' pitcher and he has good his last two starts. Runs will be at a premium today.
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: First, Shane Greene does not fill me with overwhelming hope for the Yankees. Secondly, Cespedes is going to have a big day and him and David Ortiz will be partying it up. The only question is how Allen Webster pitches. The Yankees' offense just cannot get going.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: This pick was wrong yesterday. And if A.J. Burnett has one of his good day, it could be bad today too. Will the real Jordan Zimmermann please stand up?
• The Orioles over the Mariners: James Paxton is a major talent. But he hasn't pitched since early April. Miguel Gonzalez is not a major talent, but he is a typical Oriole that seems to rise to the occasion--not to mention three great starts in a row. The M's offense is mired.
• The Indians over the Rangers: Ugh, this one is ugly. Miles Mikolas can shut down the Yankees, sure. But he has been awful against everyone else. But then there is T.J. House who hasn't exactly been impressive. High scoring game?
• The Angels over the Rays: C.J. Wilson has had a really bad stretch of starts (four bad ones in a row) and Chris Archer has been very good. So the Rays seem to be the pick. But this feels like a trap and the roles will reverse today. Ah, you know I was just looking to pick a road team to break up the program.
• The Reds over the Marlins: I have been getting some outside pressure for not picking the Marlins and rightly so as they were hot and at home. So I went with them last night and they lost. Well screw that then. Besides, I trust Nathan Eovaldi as far as I can throw him. Homer Bailey with the win.
• The White Sox over the Twins: Did I dream somewhere that Yohan Pino is not very popular with his teammates? I must have because I cannot find a reference. Weird. Anyway, Scott Carroll doesn't fill me with peace about the pick, but there he is over Pino.
• The Mets over the Giants: This pick was way wrong yesterday. However, Jacob deGrom is my guy. He has been great. And Jake Peavy seems cursed for some reason and cannot get run support from any team he pitches with.
• The Blue Jays over the Astros: I would feel better about this pick if I knew Houston's roof would be closed with R.A. Dickey pitching. I still think the Jays win despite a nice outing last time out by Brett Oberholtzer.
• The Brewers over the Cardinals: Forgive me for not being excited about Justin Masterson pitching for the Cardinals. Unless his velocity picks up from before his DL stint, he is not the same guy. Besides, Kyle Lohse is going to give his former team fits in his old haunts.
• The Pirates over the Diamondbacks: Both Vance Worley and Chase Anderson have been winning pitchers for their respective teams. That seems to even out the pitching equation here. If that is the case, then the Pirates are the pick as the much better team.
• The Padres over the Braves: The Braves seem to be fading a bit. That uneven offense has to get them in trouble eventually. I will say that Ervin Santana is earning himself a nice contract when he hits the market after the season. But despite his walks spiking, Ian Kennedy has been pretty good since the start of July and frankly, I am surprised he wasn't scooped up before the deadline.
• The Dodgers over the Cubs: It is Korea versus Japan in this one as Hyun-jin Ryu goes against the 33-year-old rookie, Tsuyoshi Wada. Wada picked up his first MLB win his last time out. Ryu should best him at home.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Tigers over the Rockies: Dang, all home teams picked so far. I hate when that happens. Rick Porcello should win though. Tyler Matzek seems perpetually frozen at a 2-5 record.

Yesterday: 7-8, August: 7-8, Games of the Day: 64-50, Season: 901-753