Friday, September 25, 2009

Game Picks - Friday: September 25, 2009

*Blink* Yeah. 8-1 last night. 32-8 over the last three days. Whuh? Now this picker knows what it feels like to go on a hitting streak. And it also proves nothing, just like that hitting streak. The basis of all statistical analysis is not what is going on in the short term, but what has happened over time and how that data will prove out in the future.

History shows that your game picker will be right 53.6% of the time. That's what 3083 picks over time shows. So that probably means that this current hot streak is just that. The Fan hasn't finally figured it out. It's just a hot streak and will be enjoyed for what it is. But it sure has been fun.

Ignoring the feeling that we should quit while we're ahead, let's go stumbling into Friday's games:

  • The Dodgers over the Pirates: The Rockies might have done a favor to the Dodgers by getting so hot over the last two months. The Dodgers got off to such an early lead that they kind of coasted. Now they are playing better with the need to clinch and get this over with.
  • The Braves over the Nationals: The Braves are three games off the wild card lead and are 10-2 over the last couple of weeks. Vazquez, who has been brilliant pitches tonight.
  • The Orioles over the Indians: The Indians have lost 11 in a row. Carmona has been terrible which would leave the prospect that 12 looks imminent.
  • The Red Sox over the Yankees: The Yankees may win a few Joba Rules games here and there, but not against the Red Sox and Jon Lester.
  • The Blue Jays over the Mariners: Like the Jays' chances with Halladay on the mound against the weak hitting Mariners.
  • The Marlins over the Mets: Yeah, Redding has been pitching great lately. But would you bet your life on him?
  • The Reds over the Astros: The Reds sure have looked sweet lately.
  • The Phillies over the Brewers: Cliff Lee in a basically meaningless game.
  • The Bay Rays over the Rangers: Last one up turn out the lights. It's that time in Arlington.
  • The Cardinals over the Rockies: The Cardinals have basically clinched. Playing the Rockies gives them that natural incentive to knock off a contender for the wild card.
  • The Twins over the Royals: It really hurts to pick Pavano to win. It really does.
  • The White Sox over the Tigers: Only because Peavy is pitching and the White Sox are still trying to impress the newcomer. Oh yes, the Tigers are starting Bonine. Who?
  • The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Another one of those "anything can happen" type of games.
  • The Angels over the Athletics: The Angels want to clinch and get this over with.
  • The Cubs over the Giants: Zambrano over Lincecum, who hasn't been himself of late. Back problems?

Yesterday: 8-1
Week: 46-19
Month: 180-134

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