Game Picks - Thursday: May 26, 2011

The Game Picks feature of this site has gone on a long time. It was begun in the middle of May in 2009 at the request of a loyal reader (Kryss). During that time, every game has been mulled over each and every day. Only two days were missed in 2009 due to Internet outages following a storm. It is believed the commenter that requested such a feature bets on baseball. But that's not really what the feature is about. If it was, it would be a lot more scientific. All it is is a rundown of each days games and how this observer thinks those games will go down. Call them educated guesses.

The thing that is amazing after all this time and after all these games is how much luck has a part of the outcome. Take the Phillies pick yesterday. The pick went for the Phillies because Roy Halladay was pitching and he sort of pitched pretty good against the Reds the last time he faced them (you might remember that no-hitter in the playoffs). The pick ended up being correct, but only after an infielder pitched an inning of relief in the nineteenth inning and got the win. Just in case you think the luck always falls on the positive side, two of the incorrect picks yesterday (Pirates, Giants) were losses by those two teams in extra innings. That's the way the ball bounces. One would think that sheer luck would making picking these games result in a final tally that comes close to the mean. That the Fan is pretty far over .500 since the feature started must mean that on the whole, the educated guesses went to college.

There are eight games on the shortened Thursday schedule. Like yesterday, many of them are day games.

• The Orioles over the Royals: Jeff Francis has thrown 14.2 consecutive scoreless innings coming into this game. The streak included his first win (over the Cardinals). Remembering that last week, Hiroki Kuroda had a similar streak and was bombed his next time out, this Fan will opt on the side of Jeremy Guthrie.
• The Tigers over the Red Sox: The Red Sox are on fire, but get cooled off today against Max Scherzer, especially with Alfredo Aceves starting on their side.
• The Phillies over the Reds: These poor two teams have a day game following a 19 inning marathon yesterday. Talk about a lack of recovery time. There will be a bunch of zombies on the field and the starters better go deep into the game. Cliff Lee can do that. Homer Bailey can too, but there is less of a chance that he will than Lee.
• The Cubs over the Mets: The Cubs have the kind of slow bats that should be well suited to R. A. Dickey's knuckleball. In fact, they did hit Dickey hard last year. Carlos Zambrano gets the win. Seems like he just pitched the other day. Oh well. That's the pick.
• The Athletics over the Angels: Picking these two teams against each other is no fun. Two bad offenses with good pitching staffs. How do you predict who will score? Going with the ever-tough Brett Anderson over the could-be-tough Joel Pineiro.
• The Marlins over the Giants: Two very good pitchers in Anibal Sanchez versus Ryan Vogelsong. But the Giants might be punchless without Posey, who hurt his ankle. The combination of Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison have been terrific for the Marlins.
• The Blue Jays over the White Sox: Brandon Morrow has to take the lessen shown by Matt Latos yesterday that if you throw strikes, good things can happen when you have that much stuff. Phillip Humber will be solid in the loss.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: Oh, how this Fan would love to see Micah Owings pitch well. Love that guy. But he won't and rookie, Clayton Mortensen, will pitch well.

Yesterday: 9-5 (the Tigers and Bay Rays were rained out)
Week: 34-21
Month: 179-157
Season: 394-334
Games of the Day: 31-25