MLB Game Picks - Monday: April 6, 2015

Happy Opening Day! The first game last night from Wrigley Field was fairly entertaining. I couldn't help thinking about what Kris Bryant might have brought to the Cubs' offense that just wasn't long enough to push all those runners home. But that's what the Cubs' decision does. But wait, I let the first happy sentence get muddled up in the second sadder one. Again, Happy Opening Day--which should be a National Holiday!

Here are Monday's picks:

• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: The Blue Jays had long had a bugaboo about playing in Yankee Stadium and their losing streak there carried for a couple of years. Drew Hutchison pitched and lost in some of those. But once the streak was broken, it was broken in a big way. I'm not sure where Masahiro Tanaka is with his stuff right now. The Jays can hit!
• The Tigers over the Twins: David Price is going to have a big year. I'm not sure it will be enough for the Tigers. But it should be enough for tonight as long as the bullpen doesn't blow the game. Phil Hughes was terrific last year, but we'll see what this year brings.
• The Brewers over the Rockies: What does it tell you about these two teams' pitching when the Opening Day pitching match-up is Kyle Lohse against Kyle Kendrick. Yeesh. That's the best you got!? I am going with Lohse at home.
• The Phillies over the Red Sox: The Red Sox sure wanted Cole Hamels. The Phillies sure wanted way too much for him. Now Hamels will beat the Red Sox for sore measure. No DH for the Red Sox. I don't know where Clay Buchholz is any more.
• The Orioles over the Rays: At least this game won't be snowed out. I am concerned about the Orioles' offense. But they will be better than the Rays. Chris Archer is good. Chris Tillman should have an easier time of it though.
• The Marlins over the Braves: Henderson Alvarez was very good for the Fish last season. His FIP did not match his ERA, and he doesn't blow people away. But the guy can pitch. The Braves will have a vagabond-like offense this year though. So, no matter. The only way the Braves win is if Julio Teheran is lights out.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Now that Yordano Ventura is the Royals' Opening Day starter, can we call him, "Ace Ventura?" I think he and the Royals persevere here because I have serious concerns about Jeff Samardzija. He's looked very hitable for quite some time now.
• The Mariners over the Angels: Felix Hernandez is entering his eleventh season and is 29-years-old. Think about that for a second. I seriously think about him breaking down sooner or later. Think Sabathia. But he should be okay tonight against the tough Angels because he is better than Jered Weaver who throws like 84 MPH now.
• The Pirates over the Reds: Everyone keeps talking about the Reds as a .500 or better team. I don't see it. Yeah, Johnny Cueto, who pitches tonight, is very good. The Pirates seem like a much better team. I'm going with Francisco Liriano to shut down the Reds.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: There is a lot of talk about James Shields changing the culture on teams he plays for. But he is facing Clayton Kershaw. Advantage, Dodgers.
• The Indians over the Astros: Corey Kluber just got paid. Now, the big thing is whether he can repeat what he did last year. He was elite last year. Was it a one year thing? We'll find out. He should have no trouble with the Astros. Dallas Keuchel goes for that team.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: This a total hunch pick. I think Yovani Gallardo was a great pickup for the Rangers over the off season. He should have a good night in the Coliseum. Sonny Gray has always been my good luck charm though.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Josh Collmenter had a good year for the D-Backs last year and I might pick him at home except that he is facing Madison Bumgarner. I am a little worried about Bumgarner after last year's post season heroics though.

And the Pick of the Day

• The Nationals over the Mets: Why is Bartolo Colon the Opening Day starter for the Mets? I don't get it. Max Scherzer should have no problem getting his first win with his new team an league.

Yesterday: 1-0, Season 1-0

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: October 28, 2014

These posts are where I try to objectively pick which teams are most likely to win their games on any given day. For the first time in doing this, I feel like I have painted myself into a corner (cliche alert). I predicted before the Series a six game victory for the Giants. If I pick the Giants, it is a nod to my earlier prediction. If I pick the Royals, I am calling myself stupid. In the words of Oliver Hardy, "Here's another fine mess you've gotten me into."

Some what am I going to do?

The pick:

• The Giants over the Royals: No, it's not about calling myself stupid. I am usually self-deprecating enough. I can take it. No, this is about a team that has been here twice before. The Giants are going to complete their every-other-year miracle even if Jake Peavy is the starter and they could not hit Yordano Ventura the last time they faced him. It doesn't matter if you do not want history to repeat itself. It's like one of those old films where the character is in a room and the walls are squeezing him in no matter how much he tries to hold them back. Hunter Pence will do something special. Or Pablo Sandoval will do something, or Buster Posey. Pick a name. Somebody who has been here before is going to make sure it happens again.

Sunday: 1-0, Post Season: 14-16, Season: 1379- 1106

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: October 22, 2014

Game One of the World Series went as I expected it to go and my overall post season record is inching closer to the .500 mark.  I figured the Royals would have trouble against Madison Bumgarner and they certainly did. I also thought that James Shields would get hit around a little bit and that happened as well. And once again, the visiting team won the opening game in a post season series. It has happened over and over again this year.

Hunter Pence sure is fun to watch, isn't he? He is like the Joe Everyman of baseball.

The home field advantage is broken. Like breaking a serve in tennis, the Giants have taken away the one big advantage the Royals had. But the Royals aren't dead yet. They have proven that they cannot beat one of the best pitchers in baseball and a true post season stud. Tonight is a different story and it is a truly perplexing game to pick. Let's look at it closely.

The pick:

• The Royals over the Giants: First, Jake Peavy is a long shot to be effective. He now has an ERA over seven in his post season career. Add that to the fact that Peavy is 1-5 lifetime at Kauffman Stadium with a 6.42 ERA and you have a recipe for good things to happen for the Royals. The question is: What can we expect from Yordano Ventura? He is not exactly predictable. He was great against the Angels in the ALDS but was accosted a bit by the Orioles in the ALCS. And that's the problem. He is inconsistent. He is slightly better at home in his career with better control than on the road. I think he will be okay tonight. Peavy will get a short leash and a lot will depend on how many runs the Royals can score early. If they fail to push across runs against Peavy, they will have trouble winning the game. All things considered, I have to go with the Royals in this one.

Yesterday: 1-0, Post Season: 12-14, Season: 1377-1104

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: October 11, 2014

A very exciting game started off the American League Championship Series and if that game is a harbinger of things to come, it's going to be a great series. Unfortunately for me, the outcome went against my pick. I got the substance of the pick right with the Royals taking the early lead and the O's coming back strong. But the O's merely tied the game instead of going ahead and that allowed the Royals to win the game in extra innings. The Royals' bullpen was superb.

We have two games today as the ALCS continues and the NLCS begins. There is a big match-up in the NLCS and that should be difficult to figure out. With my record in the post season, my confidence at this point is pretty low. But here goes.

The picks:

• The Orioles over the Royals: The Royals have been unbelievable so far this post season. There is no doubt about that. They have not wilted in any sense of the word. That said, I have a little more confidence in Bud Norris at this point than Yordano Ventura. My only reservation with this pick is watching the O's go down easy against the power-pitching Royals' bullpen. Will Ventura similarly outmatch them? We'll see, but I have to go again with the Orioles at home.

• The Giants over the Cardinals: This is a big time pitching match-up of Adam Wainwright and Madison Bumgarner. I looked up both of their career records against their opposing teams and both have only been so-so over the years against the team they are facing. The Cardinals used to be vulnerable to lefties, but not anymore. This pick comes down to which pitcher is best capable of a big shutdown game and that would be Bumgarner. Besides, with one exception, the opening game of every series this post season has been won by the visiting team.

Yesterday: 0-1, Post Season: 6-11, Season: 1371-1101

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: September 28, 2014

The last day of the regular season. Or is it? There is a possibility of three ties today if the Cards, Tigers and Oakland lose and the Mariners, Royals and Pirates win. You cannot get much more exciting than that!

I went 9-6 yesterday which isn't bad considering how crazy this all is and how a lot of teams are just playing out the string. The one big takeaway from the season was the party Chicago threw for Paul Konerko. Well done, White Sox. He deserved such a grand exit.

It should be an interesting day!  The picks:

• The Rays over the Indians: This will be a low scoring game I think. T.J. House has been pitching well and the Rays don't hit lefties particularly well. I have to go with Alex Cobb who has been terrific this season.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: R.A. Dickey is another pitcher that has baffled me when picking his games. I am never correct with him. I think the Orioles will hit him. But I think the Blue Jays will hit Miguel Gonzalez too. Two great offenses.
• The Tigers over the Twins: David Price hasn't exactly been shut-down for the Tigers on most occasions. And Kyle Gibson can make you hit into a lot of outs. But I can't see the Twins winning this one and the Tigers always tease us and then take the division anyway.
• The Astros over the Mets: There is a lot going on in this game. Nick Tropeano is from the New York area and will want to do well. He has looked good in his handful of starts. Bartolo Colon is always a mystery. His 14-13 record tells you that. He's ether decent or he's very generous. Who knows.
• The Pirates over the Reds: Johnny Cueto goes for his 20th win. That would be cool. It's not going to happen. Gerrit Cole will pitch even better and the Pirates will force the Cardinals to win and waste Wainwright...well, not waste him, but have to use him.
• The Phillies over the Braves: Two teams going home after today. I got this pick wrong yesterday. Cole Hamels is not A.J. Burnett and James Russell is a loogy who has relieved 65 times this year...and he is the starter!?
• The Nationals over the Marlins: Sure, Henderson Alvarez has had a terrific season. His team faces Jordan Zimmermann who will match him for zeroes, and then what happens? It won't be good for the Marlins.
• The Yankees over the Red Sox: The last time Micheal Pineda pitched against the Red Sox, the infamous pine tar incident played out. Jeter's last game, Pineda's revenge and one more Clay Buchholz meltdown and the season will be over for both teams.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Chris Bassitt messed up the Tigers in his last outing with a great performance. Can he do it again against the Royals? Maybe, but he will be more than matched with Yordano Ventura who will come through today where Duffy did not yesterday.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: I have to admit that I am rooting for a tie between the A's and the Mariners. But I don't think it will happen. The A's will beat the Rangers behind Sonny Gray simply because Nick Martinez will not be able to hold back the A's.
• The Giants over the Padres: Chris Heston had very good numbers in the Pacific Coast League, which is impressive since that league eats up pitchers for breakfast. I think he'll have a big day in his first MLB start. Robbie Erlin can be decent.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: I'm not sure why the Dodgers are starting Zack Greinke. Is that necessary for them to do so? But that's what the pitching line says. The Dodgers win then against Christian Bergman.
• The Mariners over the Angels: The Mariners have only one chance to win the wild card, which means they have to win. That also means Felix Hernandez has to get it done. The M's season is on the line. Hernandez's CYA is on the line. It should be interesting because the Angels are not going to play dead. Cory Rasmus pitches for the Angels.
• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: This game has two scenarios: First, getting the late game, the Cards will know whether the Pirates won or not. If the Pirates won, then Adam Wainwright will have to start to win the division. So that would be one pick. If the Pirates lose, the Cards win the division without even playing, put a scrub pitcher in there and Josh Collmenter wins. Tough call for a game picker.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Brewers over the Cubs: Mike Fiers makes the ultimate impression and seals his spot in the rotation for next year. I still can't understand why it took the Brewers half the year to get him in there in the first place. Jacob Turner will keep improving with the Cubs. But he will get beat today.

Yesterday: 9-6, Sept.: 226-149, Games of the Day: 103-67 (-2), Season: 1356-1083

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: September 23, 2014

Considering I had to absorb the completion of a loss from the suspended game that started back on August 31, an 8-4 day isn't too bad. The Game of the Day feature fell for the second straight day as the Tigers lost to the White Sox. But otherwise, it was a pretty good day. Adam Wainwright won his 20th. Derek Jeter drove in three runs. Derek Holland continued his very good run and Josh Collmenter continued his fine season. Things went pretty well all said and done.

I never saw the Blue Jays jumping all over James Paxton like they did. Nor did I see the Padres pitching a shutout. The Rockies had ten hits and left ten base runners. They were 0-8 with runners in scoring position.

Tuesday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Orioles: I really like Buster Olney, but his screed the other day about Derek Jeter costing the Yankees a trip to the playoffs is just a bunch of B.S. and a bold-faced effort for him to stay relevant and hip among today's statistical writers. An Orioles writer wrote the same thing yesterday. Get a new narrative guys. There were a lot of things that went wrong for the Yankees. This really riles me up. Five more days and they are going to have to find something else to write about. Brandon McCarthy over Ubaldo Jimenez.
• The Royals over the Indians: I cannot predict the Royals worth anything. Nor can I predict how well Danny Salazar will pitch. He is at home, so you would think he would be better. Then it will depend on how well Yordano Ventura pitches. Oy.
• The Mariners over the Blue Jays: This start here will go a long way in helping me decide between Felix Hernandez and Kluber for the AL CYA. They are so close. Can King Felix close the deal with a wild card at stake? Or will R.A. Dickey dance his knuckler to a Jays win?
• The Tigers over the White Sox: David Price has been disappointing for the Tigers. He needs to get it together before the playoffs start. He should beat the White Sox. Meanwhile, Scott Carroll will probably not have a fun night.
• The Reds over the Brewers: Mike Fiers bounced back nicely from the emotional turmoil of hitting Giancarlo Stanton. He was great his last time out. The problem is that he faces Johnny Cueto tonight and Cueto is one of the best.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: Henderson Alvarez and Cole Hamels have both had very good seasons. The Phillies would love to climb out of last place at the Marlins' expense. Two things make me choose the Fish. First, they hit better against lefties and second, Alvarez is mighty tough to beat at home.
• The Pirates over the Braves: The Pirates hope to kick a dog when it's down. And the Braves have certainly been dogs. Alex Wood is a good pitcher. If he is himself, Gerrit Cole is better.
• The Rays over the Red Sox: Clay Buchholz has had some glitzy starts, but they are few and far between a lot of other crap. Alex Cobb is usually terrific but has had issues against Boston. The game could go either way.
• The Rangers over the Astros: The Rangers' hot streak at the end of this season is ruining their draft position. That might be a problem with management, but the players seem to like to play for this interim manager. Nick Martinez over Brett Oberholtzer.
• The Cubs over the Cardinals: The Cards are inching toward the division title and have played pretty well. Shelby Miller has come back in the second half to be much better. But I'm going with Kyle Hendricks in this game. Love the guy.
• The Diamondbacks over the Twins: Andrew Chafin is having fun in the Big Leagues. I still worry about his control. But so far, so good. He being a lefty makes it harder for the Twins who struggle against them. Kyle Gibson is more guile than skill.
• The Athletics over the Angels: This is the hard thing about teams that have clinched playing teams still in contention for the wild card. And it is kind of unfair. Sonny Gray has not been very good lately, but he has to be better than Wade LeBlanc. I mean, seriously...
• The Padres over the Rockies: Jorge De La Rosa is the Rockies' best pitcher and he should enjoy pitching at Petco. The only problem for him and the Rockies is that Robbie Erlin has been very good at home.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: This is a very big-time match-up. Madison Bumgarner is one of the best and Zack Greinke is nothing to sneeze at. The Dodgers need to put the Giants away. The Giants are very good and not being put away. Wow.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Nationals over the Mets: Good old Bartolo Colon will pour in fastballs all night and the Nats are a great fastball hitting team. The Nats have been sleepy since they clinched but I think they will have a big offensive game here and Tanner Roark will pitch five or six good innings.

Yesterday: 8-4, September: 180-123, Games of the Day: 100-65 (-2), Season: 1310-1057

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: August 16, 2014

Even though yesterday finished over .500 (barely), it was a disappointment after the previous three days. In those previous three days, the picks had gone 29-10 including 9-1 on Thursday. That kind of success made me happy. Yesterday did not.

And you know what? It was those danged extra-inning games that continue to drive me crazy. There were three of them yesterday and all three went against the pick. That's stupid and yet so typical. I should have kept track of this and maybe next year (God willing) I will.

Saturday's picks:

• The Giants over the Phillies: This was one of the extra-inning games and the real problem with this pick is that the Phillies are back to facing a right-handed pitcher in Tim Hudson. They are much better in those situations. But the Giants at home with Kyle Kendrick going for the Phillies is too attractive not to take.
• The Rays over the Yankees: One team is going, "Yay! We're at .500!" While the other one is saying, "Oh no! We are almost back at .500!" Two teams going in opposite directions with the Yankees sinking fast should produce another Rays win. The Emoticon, Drew Smyly, will now become a great pitcher in Tampa while Shane Greene will be treated somewhat rudely at the Trop.
• The Indians over the Orioles: There are so many competing forces going on here. The Orioles have been indestructible the last month while the Indians have one of the best home records in baseball. Carlos Carrasco was great his last time out but only pitched five innings. Ubaldo Jimenez has been awful all year but goes back to Cleveland where he had success. There is too much going on here!
• The Nationals over the Pirates: This is a tale of two lefties. Gio Gonzalez has lost his last four starts and five of his last six (the other was a no-decision). He is due for a win, but I worry about his health. Jeff Locke seems to pitch and never get decisions. He is only 4-3 after thirteen starts. Locke has been prone to the long ball this year and the Nats might hit a couple.
• The Mariners over the Tigers: This is a great pitching match-up and again, either ace can win depending on how their day goes. Felix Hernandez is 9-2 lifetime against the Tigers and 5-1 lifetime at Comerica. That's hard to ignore. So I give him the edge over David Price.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: This pick was wrong yesterday but I am going back to it because Henderson Alvarez is pretty hard to beat at home. Plus, Wade Miley might run into Giancarlos Stanton's bat once or twice.
• The Mets over the Cubs: I am uncomfortable looking over the picks so far that I have so many home teams winning. I do take the location of the game into account, but mostly I go with match-ups and let the pick fall where it is. So, I'll keep going. Jon Niese makes me much more confident than Dan Straily. Simple.
• The Red Sox over the Astros: The Astros win yesterday (yes, in extra innings) surprised me. And it would surprise me if they win again today. While Rubby De La Rosa is inconsistent, at least he is capable of wow. I can't say that with Brad Peacock.
• The Royals over the Twins: Phil Hughes has won twelve games. He has walked only fifteen batters in 150+ innings and his home run rate is way down. So why am I picking against him? The Royals are too much on a roll and if Yordano Ventura has a good game, the Royals will find a way to win.
• The Athletics over the Braves: I'm starting to think that the A's should have left their team alone at the trade deadline. But I am still a fan of Sonny Gray. The only thing that can set this pick aside is if Julio Teheran can somehow regain his fine form of a year ago.
• The White Sox over the Blue Jays: Mark Buehrle couldn't get Mo'Ne Davis out at this point. He's been getting pounded. John Danks is not much more of a solid pick, but that's how I have it today.
• The Padres over the Cardinals: Jesse Hahn Chaka Hahn is my guy. He has had a little come down to earth in his last two starts, but I like him better than this year's version of Shelby Miller.
• The Angels over the Rangers: All Matt Shoemaker does is win. I'm still not quite sure how he does it. But he does. Colby Lewis has been better of late, but he is still a hit machine.
• The Rockies over the Reds: The Reds have had some success turning around pitchers with really bad track records. I wrote about one yesterday in Zach Duke. Dylan Axelrod had gotten worse and worse with more MLB exposure. But since he joined the Reds organization, his stats look better. But then he gets to make his first MLB start of 2014 at Coors Field. That's cruel! Jordan Lyles with the win.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Clayton Kershaw. Do I need to say more? Okay, how about Clayton Kershaw at home? That's enough. Yovani Gallardo has been good lately though.

Yesterday: 8-7, August: 117-88, Games of the Day: 73-54 (+4), Season: 1011-835