MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 20, 2015

Tuesday was one of my worst picking days EVER! I only picked three games out of fifteen correctly. I can use the excuse that I was short on time and was basically throwing darts. But nah, I just stunk up the joint.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Astros over the Athletics: Gee, how can you pick against the Astros these days...or for the A's? The world is upside down and the Astros are leaving the park at an alarming rate. Dallas Keuchel vs. Jesse Hahn.
• The Pirates over the Twins: This pick was, of course, wrong yesterday. But I'll go with it again today. I like lefties against the Twins more than the other way around and Jeff Locke has been decent most of the time. I'm not sure how Mike Pelfrey is doing what he's doing so far. There has to be a painting in his attic.
• The Nationals over the Yankees: Dellin Betances won't be available for he Yankees after two innings yesterday. Adam Warren usually needs relief help, so that's not good. I think the Nats win big with Jordan Zimmermann on the mound.
• The Orioles over the Mariners: I like this match-up for the O's. I wouldn't be surprised if they swept the series. Wei-Yin Chen should be better than Roenis Elias.
• The Blue Jays over the Angels: This game completely depends on which Drew Hutchison shows up. If it is the good one, no problem. If not, then the Blue Jays must score a lot against Jered Weaver to not blow up this pick.
• The Brewers over the Tigers: The Brewer bats have woken up in a big way and I think they will get to Shane Greene. Then it will depend on how much dipsy doo Kyle Lohse has tonight.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: Another former Yankee pitcher, David Phelps, goes in Miami. I like him in a big ballpark. Chase Anderson is still chasing his first win of the season.
• The Cardinals over the Mets: Bartolo Colon is either brilliant or terrible. He is more often brilliant, but it is knowing when the clunkers are going to come. He had one last time out and I think he has another one tonight. Carlos Martinez could learn from him though.
• The Bay Rays over the Braves: Raise your hand if you've ever heard of Williams Perez. Yeah, my hand is definitely not up. The Venezuelan is making his first MLB start. Let's hope it goes better than his relief work. I'll go with Jake Odorizzi.
• The Red Sox over the Rangers: I have no faith in Joe Kelly at this point. But at least he is a known quantity. Phil Klein, on the other hand, has 18 MLB appearances, all in relief. He is the Rangers' starter. That doesn't look like a good option to me.
• The Royals over the Reds: Jason Marquis and Jeremy Guthrie will see who can out-crafty the other. There won't be many strikeouts here.
• The White Sox over the Indians: This pick didn't work out yesterday. But I like Carlos Rodon here and I think Ken Harrelson will be saying, "Put it on the board....Yes!" a lot tonight with Shaun Marcum on the mound.
• The Phillies over the Rockies: I don't know how Severino Gonazalez will do at Coors. Then again, I don't know how Eddie Butler will do there either. Somebody has to win the game.
• The Giants over the Dodgers: The Giants have some deal with some evil power. I know they do. The Dodgers cannot beat them in San Francisco. It is impossible. Tim Lincecum is making a strong push toward Comeback Player of the Year thus far. Brett Anderson has pitched well.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Padres over the Cubs: I really like Tyson Ross at home. I don't like him much on the road. But at home, he's usually very tough. For the Cubs, Tsuyoshi Wada comes off the DL to make this start. I never like those situations.

Yesterday: 3-12 (ouch), May: 124-108, Season: 288-273, Picks of the Day: 23-19

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday, October 29, 2014

How wrong could I have been? Hey, I was only off by ten runs. No biggie. The Royals truly surprised me. It wasn't a surprise that Jake Peavy struggled or that the Giants would be in big trouble if they had to go to long relief. I am surprised by Yordano Ventura who ended up being every bit as good in this series as Madison Bumgarner. And so we are headed to Game Seven. Everyone's dream scenario is a full series.

My prediction for the series is already toast. My chance of getting even in the post season is gone. After all, this is the last game of the MLB season for 2014. There won't be another one and there won't be a game pick after this one. But perhaps I can make it a good one at least and end with a correct pick. That would be nice.

The pick:

• The Royals over the Giants: The home field advantage is going to make a difference after all. The Giants can't water down the infield. The Royals can make theirs rock hard. With Tim Hudson and Jeremy Guthrie on the mound, relief pitching will make a big difference. The Royals will have that advantage. The home fans will be rocking unless the Giants score often and early to quiet the crowd. That could happen. This entire series, I had thought that the script had been written with the Giants destined to complete their every-other-year trifecta. But this script has a surprise ending. What you expect does not happen. The Cinderella really will live happily ever after.

Yesterday: 0-1, Post Season: 14-17, Season: 1379-1107

MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 24, 2014

The World Series resumes tonight in San Francisco with the Giants and Royals each winning a game in Kansas City. I laugh when I see news outlets calling tonight's game a "Pivotal Game." Well, of course! The teams are tied and one team is going to go one up. That would be the definition of pivotal, would it not? We all need our headlines.

And tonight's pitching line is very interesting. Either pitcher could be brutal, or he could be brilliant. It's all a matter of how much they are able to throw the ball where they want to throw it. The go-go Royals can play gap ball and run like crazy. But the Giants can mash. It will be interesting.

Here is the pick:

• The Giants over the Royals: Tim Hudson has not won a post season game since 2001. He has had one great start this post season and one not so great. He has not walked a batter and I don't suppose he will walk the free-swinging Royals. It is the ability to limit walks that I like him over Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie is a true contact pitcher who relies on the good defense to keep his BABIP against down. He has the perfect team behind him to accomplish that for him. Hudson has gone deeper into his post season games which he needs to do tonight. The Giants don't need another bullpen fiasco. Guthrie will not go deep into the game. But the Royals' bullpen is lock down. The Giants must go ahead early and stay there. If they don't, they lose. Like I said, this is going to be very interesting. The Royals will miss having the DH.

Last time out: 1-0, Post Season: 13-14, Season: 1328-1104

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: October 14, 2014

Yesterday was a washout for Major League Baseball as the one playoff game had to be cancelled due to weather. That means we get two games today. The NLCS will start at four o'clock and the ALCS at eight. Despite being rained out, the Royals and Orioles will still feature the same pitching match-up as scheduled yesterday. While in the NLCS, the Cardinals must make do without their fiery leader, Yadier Molina. Come on down, A.J. Pierzynski.

The picks:

• The Cardinals over the Giants: Despite the absence of Molina, I still think the Cardinals win this game IF John Lackey comes up big. Tim Hudson goes for the Giants and he was brilliant in his one 2014 post season start thus far. But that comes after a sub par season and it is hard to know which one will show up tonight. The same could be said for Lackey. When Lackey is on, he is wicked. If he is not, balls fly all over the ballpark. It will be interesting.

• The Orioles over the Royals: I'm still going with the same picks as yesterday since the pitching line is supposed to remain the same. I understand why the Royals would pitch Jeremy Guthrie as he deserves the start. He has been with the Royals for two and a half years and always battles hard for them. But on the other hand, the Orioles know him as he pitched for them not long ago and Guthrie is a homer waiting to happen. Wei-Yin Chen is the wild card in all this. Left-handed pitching does not bother the Royals very much. A key match-up for Chen will be Billy Butler who absolutely rakes lefty pitching.

Post Season: 8-12, Season: 1373-1102

MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 13, 2014

Happy Columbus Day to all of you fortunate enough to get the federal holiday off. It would have been nice during the holiday to have a day game to watch in the playoffs. But, heavens, that would be sacrilege.  And so we will wait all the way to eight o'clock tonight to watch the Orioles and Royals resume their series, this time in Kansas City.

The Cardinals evened their series against the Giants with a Kolten Wong walk off laser. It was the fourth homer the Cards hit in the game. Isn't it weird how these teams like the Cards and Royals who hardly hit any homers in the season have hit so many in the post season? Anyway, the homer is the problem you face with Jake Peavy pitching and I kind of called that one yesterday.

The Orioles, of course, are in trouble now having to play in Kansas City down two games to none. They have effectively squandered their home field advantage and the Royals just have to win two of five to head to the World Series. So can the Orioles fight back? Or will they melt away in four? Let's take a look.

The pick:

• The Orioles over the Royals: The pitching line here seems to favor the Orioles. Wei-Yin Chen, if he is on, is very effective and his winning percentage this year showed how good he can be. Jeremy Guthrie is a smoke and mirrors guy who relies on a good BABIP to win. That means that Guthrie will either be head-scratchingly good or pound-into-submission bad. Even if it is somewhere in between, I think the Orioles win it. You can be sure that the Royals fans will be going crazy some it would be helpful to the Orioles to score early (and often). Let me put it this way: If the Orioles cannot beat Guthrie, then they will be playing golf really soon.

Yesterday: 1-0, Post Season: 8-12, Season: 1373-1102

What is Jeremy Guthrie?

Most of you know that I pick baseball games every day. It's part of my shtick. And one thing that happens every fifth day is not knowing what to do with Jeremy Guthrie when his turn comes up. You could say that Guthrie has been successful with the Royals. His record in two and a half years there is 29-25. He takes the ball every fifth day and is durable. But, gosh, he just doesn't seem to be very good.

The Royals gave him a nice contract of $25 million for 2013, 2014 and 2015. He has an option for 2016. That is some pretty good coin for a guy I regularly call a "journeyman" pitcher. Obviously, the Royals know what he has, what his stuff is and what it is worth to them to have a guy eat six innings of a game 32 times a year and reasonably succeed half of the time. I do not know how much a role stat-crunchers play in the Royals' decision-making process. But the Royals thought this was a reasonable deal. Can we argue with them?

If you look around the Majors and teams that consistently lose starters to the disabled list, is their "stuff" worth the down time? Here we have a pitcher without much "stuff" but who is dependable and reliable. That has a value and part of his overall value equation is his innings pitched and his steady amount of starts.

#453802494 / gettyimages.com

And that is a good thing for Guthrie as the rest of his peripherals do not bring him much value. Guthrie currently ranks 88th of 96 qualifying pitchers in FIP at 4.55. His ERA isn't much prettier at 4.48. If you go by ERA+, he sits at 90 when 100 is average. He is 82nd of 96 pitchers in strikeout percentage with a 15.4%. His home run to nine inning rate is 86th of 96 qualifying pitchers. He led the American League in hits allowed last year and is ninth in all of baseball this year. So you get my quandary here.

It really doesn't help that the statistic sites have different ways of valuating players. The disconnect is sharp when it comes to pitchers. For example, baseball-reference.com gives Guthrie 19.5 rWAR for his career, 1.1 rWAR for last year and 0.5 so far this year. Fangraphs.com gives him 13.7 fWAR for his career, 1.0 fWAR for last year and lo and behold, 0.8 this year. Whuh?

In 2013, the first year of Guthrie's contract, the 1.0 fWAR valuation came to $4.8 million, which isn't bad since he was paid only $5 million. Each year, the value of a win increases and so, if you go by Fangraphs, Guthrie has been worth $4.6 million so far this year. He will probably end up worth around $5 million this year. The problem is that he now makes $8 million and will make $9 million next year.

The question for the Royals is: If the Royals make the playoffs and they get to a short series, do you start Jeremy Guthrie?

I have a hard time gaining perspective on the career of a guy like Jeremy Guthrie. I appreciate that he eats innings and gives you 30 starts a year and averages more than six innings a start. I can see the value of that to a pitching staff. But I also see that his closest career comps are Kris Benson and Paul Maholm.

In an era of the strikeout, Guthrie is not that guy. Of all his pitches, only his change-up has a positive value. His OPS against is .753 when the league average among all batters is .710. He has led the league once in hits allowed and once in homers allowed and twice in losses in a season (granted, for some awful Oriole teams).

Jeremy Guthrie is a journeyman pitcher with three of his last four seasons being less than league average. The fourth was exactly league average. But he takes the ball every fifth day and holds a pitching staff together. That doesn't quite seem worth the money he is making, but it does have its value. If you look at him like a fourth or fifth starter who wins half of his decisions, then you cannot make fun of that, can you? Maybe I should stop doing so.

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: July 5, 2014

The Fourth of July was a bit of a bumpy ride for the Game Picks but the day still pulled out with an 8-6 record with one postponement. That's not bad. Boston and Baltimore will play two games today to make up for yesterday. Surprisingly, the Mets did get their game in despite Arthur and even more surprising was my pick that Yu Darvish would lose to the Mets bore out. What did the Rangers accomplish by holding him up? Two losses it would appear.

My extra-inning streak continued as the A's outlasted the Blue Jays and won, 1-0. And Kershaw made my Game of the Day pick look easy. Though, I should get some demerits for stating that the scoreless streak would end. It did not. Clayton Kershaw is amazing.

Jason Hammel made my pick against the Cubs look bad and then was traded with Jeff Samardzija to the A's. The strong get stronger and the Cubs get...well...something...

Saturday's picks:

• The Red Sox over the Orioles:  I still think Jon Lester beats Miguel Gonzalez, just like I did yesterday.
• The Yankees over the Twins: I'd like to see MiLB lifer, Yohan Pino get his first win. Two of his three starts weren't bad. But the Yankees are bouncing back a bit on offense and David Phelps will need to be good today to win.
• The White Sox over the Mariners: Jose Quintana is about the most underrated pitcher in baseball and I think since he is a lefty, he will shut down the Mariners. It all depends on if the White Sox can scratch a few off of Felix Hernandez, who I hardly ever pick against.
• The Marlins over the Cardinals: These last two picks are frightening. But Andrew Heaney is too good not to win eventually and the Cards have trouble against lefties. Plus, Shelby Miller has been erratic.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: This is a punt as both David Buchanan and Edinson Volquez are not very good or reliable. The Pirates are better than the Phillies, so we'll go with that.
• The Tigers over the Rays: Anibal Sanchez has been the Tigers' best starter for a month and a half now and even though Victor Martinez is out, I think the Tigers will score three runs against Chris Archer who is not as good against everyone else as he is against the Yankees and Red Sox.
• The Braves over the Diamondbacks: I need to stop haranguing Aaron Harang. He has won more than he has lost and the Braves are rolling right now. Mike Bolsinger has been pretty good for the D-backs, though.
• The Rockies over the Dodgers: Poor Dan Haren has to keep following Kershaw. That is like Enya following Mozart. I mean, Enya is pretty good, but...  Besides, Jorge De La Rosa will have an advantage at Coors since he is used to it.
• The Reds over the Brewers: For some reason, I have this man crush on Homer Bailey. He must be pretty good because his contract is always bandied about whenever talk of Jon Lester's money talks come up. So let's go with him over Matt Garza, who I decidedly do not have a man crush.
• The Royals over the Indians: Remember that thing I said yesterday about the Indians at home? Yeah. Forget all that. The Royals schooled them yesterday and Jeremy Guthrie has found a mile or two more on his fastball lately. T.J. House is a good name for an actor.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Yeah, I'm looking at a sweep here. John Lackey has gotten beat his last two times out, but should be better than Ubaldo Jimenez even though the latter had a rare good performance last time out.
• The Padres over the Giants: All Odrisamer Despaigne has done since was called up was confound writers with spelling his name and winning. Maybe in that order too. Tim Hudson is hard to count against, but this Cuban guy has been great.
• The Mets over the Rangers: The difficult part of Bartolo Colon's starts is that you know one out of every four are going to be colossal stinkers. But you never know which one of the four it's going to be. It could be today, or it could not be today. That's his own personal crap shoot. Either way, the Mets hit Colby Lewis.
• The Angels over the Astros: Did you see Mike Trout's walk off homer? The catcher was getting ready to dig it out of the dirt and Trout hits a two iron over the wall. Amazing. The win-less Franklin Morales over Scott Feldman.
• The Athletics over the Blue Jays: This has been an incredibly pitched series but the Blue Jays have lost both. Scott Kazmir is another great starter and should be slightly better than Mark Buehrle.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Nationals over the Cubs: Who is going to pitch for the Cubs today? Your guess is as good as mine (or Yahoo's or MLB.com's). The Nationals will start Gio Gonzalez, so that is good enough for me.

Yesterday: 8-6, July: 35-19, Games of the Day: 48-42, Season: 717-594

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: June 18, 2014

Tuesday was a good day in my game picking world. With only four incorrect picks, a lot of the bad taste of the previous few days disappeared. Never satisfied, I was confounded a bit by the four incorrect picks. I mean, come on, Yu Darvish. Maybe you should go to a baseball shrink when it comes to pitching to the A's. Against everyone else, he is Godzilla. Against the A's, he is a gecko. What the hecko?

The Phillies beat the Braves again and that does two things. First, it points out the inherent problems the Braves have on offense. But secondly, each win delays the Phillies from doing what they need to do to rebuild and start over.

Here are Wednesday's picks:

• The Braves over the Phillies: I am nothing if not stubborn. So I'll try this again. This is the first of eight glorious day games today and features kind of a crappy pitching match-up of Roberto Hernandez against Aaron Harang. I guess I'm going Harang.
• The Marlins over the Cubs: Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta hasn't given up a run in his last two outings. So why am I picking Miami? I think Nathan Eovaldi matches him and then the Marlins win late against the bullpen.
• The Royals over the Tigers: Okay, I am hopping on the Royals' bandwagon (watch them lose now). Jeremy Guthrie is not great, but he has held his own over the years against the Tigers and I'm not big on The Emoticon, Drew Smyly, as a starting pitcher.
• The Orioles over the Rays: Kevin Gausman has made a strong statement in his last two starts and perhaps his "I've arrived" moment has come. Alex Cobb was much better his last time out, but his mates aren't scoring.
• The Red Sox over the Twins: The Red Sox barely beat Phil Hughes yesterday who threw a complete game in his 2-1 loss. Kyle Gibson has been the Twins' second best pitcher and has had some really good games. But John Lackey has been outstanding.
• The Cardinals over the Mets: Lance Lynn is getting tougher and tougher and hasn't had a lynning in quite a while. Bartolo Colon is game and will face a team that loves hitting fastballs.
• The White Sox over the Giants: I just wrote about Tim Hudson last week and about how the guy just wins and wins, year after year. But Chris Sale is a different beast and should shut the Giants down.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: The Rangers will never catch the A's. It's just not going to ever happen. The A's are in their heads I think. Sonny Gray was not good against the Yankees, but he will beat the A's. Nick Tepesch can be good at times.
• The Reds over the Pirates: Can you realistically pick against Alfredo Simon at this point? The guy has been amazing. Put him up against Edinson Volquez and that seems like a sure thing.
• The Nationals over the Astros: I normally don't like picking a guy coming off the disabled list like Gio Gonzalez. But I just don't trust Scott Feldman against the Nationals' offense. So that's the pick.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Mark Buehrle is tough to pick against with the year he is putting together. But there is too much body of work to think that he will be that good all season. Chase Whitley just seems to throw quality innings day after day. I'm not sure how he does it exactly.
• The Angels over the Indians: Justin Masterson is so inconsistent. He's either brilliant or he's terrible. I can't stand picking games he pitches. But he is facing a team that has all its weapons now and is coming on strong. And C.J. Wilson is better than people think.
• The Brewers over the Diamondbacks: The D-backs are so stupid. I mean, come on. Pound your chests and tell the world about how macho you are and how you are the baseball police. But it would fly better if the team was any good. Matt Garza over Wade Miley (who I thought was pitching yesterday).
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Clayton Kershaw at home? Yeah, I'll take some of that. Colorado away from Coors? No, I won't take some of that. Jorge De La Rosa isn't bad, but he's no Kershaw.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Mariners over the Padres: Felix Hernandez goes to another big ballpark to pitch. That's killer for him and for the Padres. Andrew Cashner has a big arm, but has not shown any consistency to this point.

Yesterday: 11-4, June: 128-106, Games of the Day: 38-36, Season: 581-487

MLB Game Picks - Friday: April 4, 2014

I started yesterday at 0-3, so I was happy to finish up with a 6-4 record for the Game Picks. That Twins - White Sox game was wild, wasn't it? Seattle and Oakland played a great game with great pitching throughout. Coco Crisp does a lot of those walk-off kinds of thing, or so it seems. He hit his homer against old friend, Hector Noesi. There was one postponement, the second of the season, as the Tigers and Royals were rained out.

We are back to a full schedule today. With lots of day games! Yay! Here are the picks:

• The Nationals over the Braves: The Nats have opened the season with a bang and seem really deep. MLB has a TBO next to who is pitching, but there are reports elsewhere that Jordan Zimmermann is pitching. David Hale goes for the Braves. He was not very impressive this spring.
• The Tigers over the Orioles: It was nice for the Tigers to have Anibal Sanchez held back by yesterday's rain to start this one. He is tough and faces a tough lineup. Miguel Gonzalez goes for the Orioles and should be fine after taking a liner off his shin at the end of Spring Training.
• The Brewers over the Red Sox: This is a big stretch, but Jake Peavy worries me and Marco Estrada is the kind of pitcher that can shut down Boston. The Brewers get an extra bat in the lineup too.
• The Cubs over the Phillies: I have zero confidence in Roberto Hernandez. None. Nada. I do like Travis Wood a lot and especially his left arm against the Phillies.
• The Indians over the Twins: Danny Salazar did not have a good spring, so that worries me. But despite the Twins' win yesterday, they don't look very good. And Mike Pelfrey never scares anyone.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: Neither Juan Nicasio or Randall Delgado set my heart aflutter. So without knowing what will happen, I will settle for the home field advantage.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Jeremy Guthrie wins his share of games despite lousy peripherals. And Erik Johnson has yet to translate his winning ways in the minors to the Major League level. This is one of those coin flip games.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: Isn't Matt Kemp back today? That will confuse the outfield situation. Who sits? Anyway, Ryan Vogelsong no longer worries me as a pitcher, which is not good. And Hyun-jin Ryu is pitching very well.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Shelby Miller did not have a very good spring, but he has been a very solid pitcher since hitting the Majors. He and Gerrit Cole are both making their season debuts. I think it will be the Cardinals on top.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: This game confuses me. I worry about Masahiro Tanaka against a lineup like the Blue Jays. I love Dustin McGowen's story, but doubt his ability to succeed as a starter. The Yankees had to fly all night. We'll just have to see what happens.
• The Reds over the Mets. The Mets look dreadful. It could be a long season. But they have had stretches where they recover. I think they have to make a decision at first base and stick with it. Anyway, Mike Leake over Jenrry Mejia.
• The Marlins over the Padres: I have no clue in this one. Tom Koehler versus Eric Stults. I don't know. I just picked four visiting teams to win in a row and it made me shake. So I picked the home team here. Yeah, this is weird.
• The Rays over the Rangers: Joe Saunders? Oh please, no. I am looking for Wil Myers and Evan Longoria to clean his clock. Jake Odorizzi goes for the Rays an he looks like another good one.
• The Angels over the Astros: The Astros are better offensively this season. But they still have a long way to go. The Angels have struggled out of the gate. I think Garrett Richards will be better than Lucas Harrell.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Athletics over the Mariners: If you want to see something really funny, look up Chris Young's player page on MLB.com. He looks like Peewee Herman throwing a baseball. Dan Straily never does wow me, but I think he will win.

Yesterday: 6-4, Games of the Day: 2-2, Season: 30-20