MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 8, 2015

Sheesh! Another negative night and it took a real bad blown save by Huston Street to keep it from being worse. Of course, his meltdown hurt my fantasy team. That's four par or subpar days in a row now and I need to get on track!

Friday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Braves: Gio Gonzalez sort of confuses me. He is not as good as he was before the suspension, but not as bad as I keep thinking he is. I think he does well against the Braves and the Nats hit Eric Stults.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Adam Warren will have to have a good night to have this pick hold out, especially since the Yankees can never seem to hit Miguel Gonzalez, which is really weird since he's not a world beater. Caution as this is a wishful thinking pick.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: I am a huge Michael Wacha fan and so this pick is for him. Francisco Liriano is a hit or miss kind of guy and I never seem to hit it correctly. This pick was certainly wrong yesterday.
• The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: This is an interesting game. The Red Sox fired their pitching coach and we will have to see how that works out. Both Wade Miley and Aaron Sanchez have struggled, so I can only see through this glass darkly.
• The Tigers over the Royals: David Price has only had the one bad start. Otherwise he has been brilliant. Yordano Venture will try not to stir up any trouble tonight.
• The Indians over the Twins: Neither Mike Pelfrey nor Trevor Bauer have lost a game this year. That's sort of weird, but it is still early. I have no idea what to make of the Indians. I'll pick them at home, but the Twins sure have been playing well.
• The Rays over the Rangers: I have to check on the Rangers. I don't even know who plays for them anymore besides third base and shortstop. The Rays' lineup is kind of bad, but I have a feeling Nathan Karns will have a good night and better Yovani Gallardo.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: Jimmy Nelson has had a couple of real clunkers for outings lately and the Brewers are still offensively challenged. I'm going with the Cubs who start Jason Hammel tonight.
• The Reds over the White Sox: The White Sox rarely win a game that Hector Noesi starts, so I can't go there. Jason Marquis just keeps rolling along. The Reds get an extra bat with the DH.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: I don't expect Brett Anderson to pitch as well as he did his last time out, especially at Coors. But I think the Dodgers' offense will explode again tonight starting with a short outing by Eddie Butler.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Okay. The Diamondbacks have been picked against for three straight games and have made me look stupid each time. So I give in and pick them to win even with  the mediocre Jeremy Hellickson on the mound. James Shields be darned.
• The Astros over the Angels: Jered Weaver is averaging 83 MPH on his fastball this season. His arm must be Swiss cheese and he is 0-4. Not that I am a big fan of Roberto Hernandez, but let's go thatway in this one.
• The Mariners over the Athletics: I always pick Sonny Gray, but not tonight. He is simply due to lose. A lot will depend on if Tiajuan Walker is over his early season funk and pitches like he is capable.
• The Giants over the Marlins: The Fish are a long, long way from home and Tim Lincecum has turned back the clock and looks terrific. Jarred Cosart will try to prove me wrong. He is a fiery guy.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Mets over the Phillies: I cannot in good conscience ever pick against Matt Harvey even if he is facing Cole Hamels. Even if the two pitchers cancel each other out, the Mets win late.

Yesterday: 5-6, May: 51-45, Season: 215-210, Picks of the Day: 18-14

Jeremy Hellickson and thoughts on defense

I have been looking at all the angles on the Jeremy Hellickson trade that brought two prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays from the Arizona Diamondbacks. And all that contemplation led to some thoughts about the recent history of both teams and what might have contributed from their falls from grace over the past few seasons. A lot of my thoughts ended up settling on defense.

The thought for years was that Jeremy Hellickson was not nearly as good as his results. In 2011 his ERA was 2.95 but his FIP was 4.44. Similarly, in 2012, Hellickson's ERA was 3.10 but his FIP was 4.60. He also had a high strand rate of 80% or better in both seasons.

It all seemed to catch up with Hellickson in 2013 and his ERA ballooned to overtake his FIP and that lack of success continued into his injury-shortened 2014. Those of us who felt that Hellickson was overrated clucked like proud chickens and said, "See!?" Perhaps our thinking is too simplistic.

#183849172 / gettyimages.com

The reason this resonates with me was watching the post season this past year. The Orioles and, more pointedly, the Royals seemed to make hay with flawed teams because their fielders seemed to catch everything in sight, especially in big spots. Every time you tuned in, some Royal was diving and making a play. More than anything else besides perhaps the bullpen, defense seemed to define the Royals.

If you look closely at the Orioles, the most drastic change from 2011, when they were terrible, to 2012, 2013 and 2014 was their pitchers' team BABIP or batting average for balls in play. In 2011, the Orioles' BABIP was .302. The next year, that figure went down to .285 and the team won 93 games. In 2014, that figure went down to .280 and they won 96 games.

While BABIP is not a magic bullet to point at for the sole reason a team succeeds, it does point to better defense and team positioning.

The Royals lost 90 games in 2012. Their pitchers' BABIP was .311! The team has won 86 games or better both of the last two seasons and that BABIP is down to the .291 range for both seasons. This corresponds to a defense that ranked first among all teams in team defense in 2014. In 2012, the Royals' team defense finished 18th among 30 teams in team defense. That has to make a difference.

Let's look at the Rays during Hellickson's career. In 2011, the Rays finished second among the thirty teams in defense. The Rays were sixth in 2012. They fell to ninth in 2013 and were only fourteenth in 2014. Just to give you an idea of the drop, according to Fangraphs.com, the Rays' defense was worth 59.8 runs in 2011. It was worth 4.5 runs (total!) in 2014. That is a huge drop. Hellickson's BABIP is only .269 for his career, but has been over .300 the last two seasons.

Just for kicks and giggles, I looked at David Price's BABIP statistics over the years with the Rays and 2014 marked the third year in a row that his BABIP had gone up, so there does seem to be some sort of relationship.

So what is going to happen as Hellickson goes to the Diamondbacks? The Diamondbacks have had a similar and maybe more dramatic fall in team defense. In 2011 the Diamondbacks were the best defense in baseball. They were strong at shortstop, the outfield could fly and they were also strong behind the plate and at third base.  They won 94 games and their pitchers' BABIP was .290.

In 2012 Stephen Drew got hurt, someone thought it was a good idea to break up the terrific outfield defense and put Jason Kubel out there and the defense fell to 13th and the team won thirteen less games. The BABIP for its pitchers went up over .300.

The 2013 Diamondbacks won the same number of games as the 2012 version, but this time the defense bounced back to second place. The outfield minus Kubel was again strong and the up the middle infield was strong as well.

2014 was a fielding disaster for the Diamondbacks. Mark Trumbo proved that the team hadn't learned from the Kubel education, Gerardo Parra was moved from left to right. It just didn't work and the team was awful. The team went from a pitching BABIP of .296 in 2013 to .316 in 2014. That is a full twenty point swing!

The bad news is this is what Jeremy Hellickson is getting himself into. However, there is hope. The entire front office and the manager on the field have all been cleaned out and perhaps the focus will again be on defense and preventing runs. Heck, it couldn't get much worse, so it has to get better under Tony La Russa's house.

The Diamondbacks play in Arizona where the hot and dry air means that the baseball flies. Defense has to be a key to how well the team can compete in those conditions. It's not quite  as bad as playing in Coors Field, but it's a tough environment. Hellickson is more of a fly ball pitcher. Outfield defense will be very important to him.

If the Diamondbacks improve defensively, Jeremy Hellickson, if healthy, will thrive in his new environment. He will get to pitch quite a few times in LA, San Diego and San Francisco, which should help even out the Chase Field disadvantage. He will not have to deal with the DH regularly and lineups aren't as deep. IF the Diamondbacks can support him defensively, he can be a nice addition. That is one heck of an IF though.

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: September 13, 2014

The picks had their second straight good night. They are 25-5 in the last two days. But as good as that sounds, the Game of the Day feature has been wrong three days in a row. Yesterday, I had no idea whatsoever that Nathan Karns was capable of shutting down the Blue Jays on two hits. Seriously!?

Other incorrect picks from yesterday included the first game loss of the Yankees. They had the game at 1-0 and brought in Adam Warren in the bottom of the 11th. Terrible decision. Boom and goodnight. And by the way, the Yankees are officially dead. I did not expect the Red Sox to beat the Royals. Wow, those Royals fans must be in full panic mode now. Gosh, I was hoping for a team over than the Tigers in that division. Lastly, the Mets beat the Nationals again.

So, are two great days of picking worth not having the Game of the Day feature correct? No. Hey, that's the way I roll. I want it all.

Saturday's picks:

• The Braves over the Rangers: There should be a moratorium on weird baseball names. It's getting out of hand. The latest addition is the Rangers' starter today, Lisalverto Bonilla. I mean, come on already. Can't these scouts in South and Central American only scout guys with easy names? Julio Teheran sounds tame by example.
• The Orioles over the Yankees: I have officially given up on the Yankees and their offense. Watching their offense is like watching the desert sky waiting for a rain cloud. Don't be surprised if Kevin Long is the designated scapegoat after the season is over. Miguel Gonzalez over Shane Greene.
• The Rays over the Blue Jays: I have to think about my bias against R.A. Dickey after the season is over. I think I might have picked him once or twice this year. But I always seem to find a reason. Today's is that the Rays' offense is an opportunistic one to make up for their lack of talent. Dickey is good for opportunists. Jeremy Hellickson goes for the Rays. The Blue Jays are just about dead too.
• The Twins over the White Sox: These two teams play two today after a rain out yesterday. I still like Phil Hughes over the hard luck of Jose Quintana in the first game.
• The White Sox over the Twins: The second game has a troubling pitching match-up which makes it hard to pick either team. But I guess I'll take Scott Carroll who has thrown a decent game once in a while over Logan Darnell who has seemed out of his element thus far.
• The Pirates over the Cubs: I have a little harder time picking against the Cubs in this game. Felix Doubront has been pitching very well since heading to Wrigleyville. But I will stick with Jeff Locke and the Pirates.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: I have picking against Kyle Kendrick all season so why stop now? I have also been picking against Brad Hand and he was good his last time out. I just wonder where the Marlins will get any offense to win the game.
• The Tigers over the Indians: The #$%## Tigers are going to win this division again. How freaking boring is that? I can't count on Danny Salazar and Kyle Lobstein has made me look foolish for four starts in a row now.
• The Royals over the Red Sox: If the Royals cannot beat Rubby De La Rosa, I don't know what else to say. Of course, I would feel a whole lot more confident if Jeremy Guthrie wasn't the Royals' starter today.
• The Brewers over the Reds: Once again, I am going with Yovani Gallardo at home even though he is not as much of a lock there as in the past. David Holmberg was pretty good in his last start even if I have no idea who he is.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Maybe Jayson Werth can get on the field today despite his "dead legs." Whoever heard of such a thing? I like Zack Wheeler a lot. But I like Doug Fister more.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Chase Anderson has had a decent season. But he does not get a whole lot of decisions in his starts. Tyson Ross gets lots of decisions but has only won half of them. When Ross is on, he is awfully good.
• The Angels over the Astros: I have not given Jered Weaver his due. No pitcher does more with less stuff. And he is 16-8. You can't argue with that. Scott Feldman will be today's victim.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: At 9-10, Tim Hudson is in serious danger of breaking his streak of winning seasons. He has never had a losing season in his long and brilliant career. Zack Greinke might be the one to seal that fate.
• The Mariners over the Athletics: For the first time in his career, Felix Hernandez is going to pitch a meaningful game that could vault them into the post season. I think he will bask in the moment. Sonny Gray will not get any support.

And the Game of the Day

• The Cardinals over the Rockies: Franklin Morales will give the Cards some trouble simply because they don't hit lefties well. That said, Shelby Miller has been on fire in his last three starts.

Yesterday: 11-4, Sept.: 98-65, Games of the Day: 92-63 (-3), Season: 1228-999

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: August 23, 2014

I knew I was in trouble yesterday after the first couple of games and as the night progressed, it was just one of those horror shows that happen from time to time. I'm sure the Tigers understand what I'm talking about. Ahem.

And the Nationals' winning streak is over. Ten games. I should have learned my lesson from the rest of the season. Ten games is the longest a win streak or losing streak will go. To think the streak would go longer was pushing the envelope (cliche alert!) and I pushed it and got sticky envelop glue all over me.

Oh well, we'll call yesterday a market correction and hope for a better day today. Saturday's picks:

• The Yankees over the White Sox: Once upon a time, picking Hiroki Kuroda at home during a day game was a lock. But Kuroda is never a lock these days. The question then becomes whether the Yankees can score more than four runs against Scott Carroll. Stranger things have happened.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Even though the Twins totally blew out the Tigers yesterday, both teams emptied their bullpens, which is not good because they play two games today. And both starting pitchers in this one don't look good to go deep in the game. Yohan Pino has been awful and Buck Farmer at least has a chance to pitch well.
• The Mariners over the Red Sox: I was stunned that Koji Uehara gave up five runs yesterday. But watching the replays, there was only one hard-hit ball. The rest were lucky bloops. But that is the way the Red Sox season is going. I never picked Chris Young on the road until he started making me look stupid for not doing so. Brandon Workman goes for the Red Sox.
• The Orioles over the Cubs: The Cubs pulled off a major surprise yesterday by beating the O's. Some of it is not surprising at the O's depend quite a bit on the DH for offense and Machado out is hurting them. Still, Bud Norris has been really good and should counteract the good, young Kyle Hendricks.
• The Nationals over the Giants: The winning streak is over, so I can relax and pick the team I think will win. Clue: It's not the one starting Tim Lincecum. Jordan Zimmermann is still my guy. Seems like the Nats have been home for a month.
• The Indians over the Astros: The Astros are playing well and I really like Collin McHugh. He has pitched four games in a row giving up only a run and he has a wonderful strikeout pace going. My sticking point on picking them is that Danny Salazar is a totally different pitcher at home and tough to beat there.
• The Cardinals over the Phillies: I have given up trying to figure out what the Cardinals will do. What a roller coaster ride they have been this season. I have slightly more confidence in Shelby Miller than in David Buchanan.
• The Braves over the Reds: Here we go again with win/loss streak implications. The Braves are on a winning one and the Reds on a long losing one. Ervin Santana has been very good but I have a sneaking feeling that Mike Leake will have a good day. Ugh.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: Does the casual fan know that Wily Peralta has won fifteen games? I know about it and still find it amazing. Why not sixteen today? Heck, he is at home. Edinson Volquez will try to prevent it.
• The Rangers over the Royals: I find it amazing that Jeremy Guthrie has made $31 million in his career. He is the journey in journeyman. And he hasn't pitched well in Arlington during his career. Nick Tepesch, on the other hand, has strung together four good outings in a row.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Trevor May has allowed 26 base runners in his nine innings of work covering three games this season. He has a four to thirteen strikeout to walk ratio. Of course, today, he will pitch brilliantly. Justin Verlander is just as much of a concern with his health.
• The Marlins over the Rockies: Picking a winner at Coors is like buying scratch tickets. Tom Koehler and Jordan Lyles are pitching. I have no idea which one will succeed more.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Vidal Nuno hasn't pitched badly for the D-backs. He just hasn't won games. His being a lefty takes guys like Seth Smith out of the lineup. I have no idea how Andrew Cashner will pitch coming back from the DL.
• The Athletics over the Angels: Until the Angels can beat the A's in Oakland, I will have my doubts about their ability to win the division. Jon Lester seems like a better pick than C.J. Wilson.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: Jacob deGrom is off the disabled list and I like him a lot. But I don't know how he will do. Zack Greinke has scuffled and has health concerns himself. But all things being equal, Greinke is more dependable.

And the Game of the Day

• The Rays over the Blue Jays: The battle of the Ay's continues and I can see Jeremy Hellickson being better than Mark Buehrle in this one.

Yesterday: 5-10, August: 169-127, Games of the Day: 79-55 (+6), Season: 1063-876

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: August 17, 2014

To finish a day of picking at 8-6 (the Rockies and Reds were postponed) when both Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez lose is pretty fortunate. You counts on those two pitchers every time they take the mound. They had only lost five games between them all season. Kershaw was the Game of the Day pick, which didn't work out, but otherwise, I feel pretty fortunate.

Two other picks that surprised me were the Yankees beating the Rays and Phil Hughes winning his 13th game. The Bronx were still not bombers, but they got good pitching. And what can you say about Phil Hughes? He is simply not walking anyone and that limits the problems he can get into. I am happy for his success.

Sunday's Picks:

• The Orioles over the Indians: The Indians are tough at home and I keep going against that here with these picks. But that's how good the Orioles seem to me. Maybe losing Manny Machado hurts more than I think it does.  I still think Kevin Gausman should be better than Danny Salazar. But I won't be surprised if Salazar has a big day.
• The Tigers over the Mariners: Joe Nathan and Jim Johnson in the same bullpen? That sounds frightening if I am a Tigers fan. Add those two to the volatile cocktail of Joba and Coke? Yikes. I still like the Tigers' chances against Chris Young away from home and of Robbie Ray having a good outing.
•  The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: The D-backs line in their game with the Marlins yesterday: 1-6-5. Now that is ugly. I like Tom Koehler at home and even though Josh Collmenter will benefit with a big park too, I still like the Marlins here.
• The Cubs over the Mets: Rafael Montero has only had one good outing out of five and still couldn't win that one. Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta has been very good and won't have to face David Wright, who will sit out the game today.
• The Red Sox over the Astros: Collin McHugh strikes a lot of guys out, but he is not efficient. An not-efficient pitcher does not stand a chance against Boston. Joe Kelly, on the other hand, is a great pick up for the Red Sox.
• The Rays over the Yankees: I have lost all faith in Hiroki Kuroda, which is sad. In my opinion, he pitched one season too many. The second half of last year should have been a clue. And I was wrong about how well Jeremy Hellickson would come back. He has pitched well since his return from the DL and has proven me way wrong.
• The Royals over the Twins: Tommy Milone was squeezed out of Oakland because that team prefers strikeouts from their pitchers. He fits right in with the Twins for the same reason and is a pretty good pitcher. Jeremy Guthrie is another non-strikeout pitcher, so this game will be interesting and could go either way. I went with the Royals because they actually fare better against left-handed pitching.
• The Blue Jays over the White Sox: Edwin Encarnacion is back and with Buehrle regaining his form a little bit yesterday, perhaps Drew Hutchison can do the same today. That's a big if though. Scott Carroll goes for the White Sox and has had two straight bad outings.
• The Cardinals over the Padres: There is a lot of grumbling going on by Cardinal fans about Mike Metheny. It's getting ugly. Yesterday's loss was particularly embarrassing for the team and every move the manager made was apocalyptic. But Adam Wainwright is on the mound and you have to go that way even if Odrisamer Despaigne is a pretty tough customer on the mound.
• The Angels over the Rangers: I picked the Angels to win the AL West before the season started and it took until August to get to the point where the team has a share of the division lead. Ramon Santiago is a bit iffy, but he is less iffy than Nick Tepesch.
• The Giants over the Phillies: Tim Lincecum has not pitched well in a month now and David Buchanan is pretty good. So why am I picking the Phillies to lose? Because they are the Phillies.
• The Reds over the Rockies: The Rockies had a chance to win yesterday, but the postponement because of a water main break--which I still don't get--helps the Reds get more favorable pitching match-ups. Mat Latos now gets to face Jordan Lyles, which is a better scenario for the Reds in this first game of the double-header.
• The Brewers over the Dodgers: The Brewers impressed me with their win over Kershaw yesterday. Such a win can carry over confidence-wise and help them beat Dan Haren as well. Wiley Peralta just keeps winning.
• The Athletics over the Braves: The A's need Jon Lester to come up big in this one after a bad weekend. Mike Minor has not pitched well all season. The A's should win this one. But this is baseball after all.
• The Reds over the Rockies: Dylan Axelrod looks better in this match-up against Yohan Flange than he did yesterday against Lyles. Like I said, the postponement helped the Reds.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Nationals over the Pirates: Doug Fister has been unbelievable. How can you pick against him at this point? The Nats are on fire and the Pirates caught them at a really bad time. Edinson Volquez goes for the Pirates.

Yesterday: 8-6, August: 125-94, Games of the Day: 73-55 (-1), Season: 1019-841