Were We Watching Two Hall Of Fame Pitchers In Sabathia and Greinke?

Last night we watched CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke pitch a very competitive game as the Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the New York Yankees, 3-1. Sabathia gave up only two runs in 5.1 innings and notched his 3,000th strikeout against John Ryan Murphy, a catcher he used to throw to when Murphy was with the Yankees. Greinke, meanwhile, pitched 7.2 strong innings against an albeit depleted Yankee lineup and won his fifth game in six decisions. The Diamondbacks are 6-1 when Greinke pitches. Did we witness a future Hall Of Fame match up?

For better or worse, Roy Halladay's inclusion in the Hall of Fame on top of that of Jack Morris has changed the equation a bit with starting pitchers. Morris, we will not discuss at all as his inclusion was ridiculous. Halladay was one of the first "modern" pitchers voted into the Hall with the new emphasis of shorter outings, pitch counts and heavy bullpen usage--though Pedro Martinez and Mike Mussina could also be in that conversation.

Halladay finished with a Wins Above Replacement total of 64.5 (baseball-reference.com) or 65.4 (fangraphs.com). According to JAWS, he is the 43rd best starting pitcher of all time. Halladay finished with a 203 wins, a .659 Winning Percentage, a 3.39 career FIP and 2117 strikeouts. He won two Cy Young Awards and finished in the top five in that award five other times.

If Roy Halladay is our new bottom standard for Hall of Fame pitchers (no disrespect meant), then where do CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke stand? Let's start with Greinke as he seems to have a more solid argument.

Zack Greinke has two more years on his contract and is 35-years-old. At his current rate of productivity, he will add a bit to his resume. Greinke currently has compiled 66.9 career WAR (Fangraphs.com lists him more than ten wins lower!) and JAWS considers him the 47th best pitcher of all time. He won his 192nd game yesterday, good for a .617 winning percentage. He has a 3.40 career FIP and 2,481 strikeouts. He was won Cy Young Award and was screwed out of another and has finished in the top five as recently as two years ago.

Greinke is also one of the best fielding pitchers of his generation and arguably his generation's best hitting pitcher. It can easily be speculated that Greinke will finish with near 210 wins, 2,600 strikeouts and 68-70 WAR.

CC Sabathia is in his last season. Whatever he compiles this season will be it. And with the Yankees' quick bullpen trigger, Sabathia does not get the chance to pile up a lot of decisions. He made 29 starts last year and only figured in 16 decisions (Greinke figured in 26 decisions in his 33 starts). Sabathia currently has Wins Over Replacement totals of 63.2 (b-ref) and 66.4 (fWAR). Sabathia has 247 wins and should go over the 250 mark by season's end. And, as stated, he reached 3,000 strikeouts last night. Sabathia has a .616 winning percentage and should not finish under .614 even if things go flooey. Sabathia used to be a good hitter but has not had a hit since 2009 and is laughably one of the worst fielding pitchers of his generation.

JAWS considers Sabathia the 68th best starting pitcher of all time. But, he is also only the third left-handed pitcher to record 3,000 strikeouts and the last pitcher to compile ten complete games in a season AND 250 innings.

Roy Halladay had big moments in the post season. Who can ever forget that perfect game? Greinke and Sabathia have been okay in the post season but not great.

Personally, Zack Greinke is a lock. Since he left the Kansas City Royals after 2011, he has won over 70% of his decisions. That is still an important statistic to me. He has been effective even for teams who play in hitters' parks like Milwaukee and Arizona. I believe him to be one of the most underrated pitchers of his generation.

CC Sabathia will be an interesting case. The 3,000 strikeouts are impressive. The legend of what he did that season for Milwaukee will never grow old in the telling. He might just be the last pitcher to win 250 games. Pitching for the Yankees will be a blessing and a curse for his case. I think he is on the bubble which might get blown in after all is said and done.

Personally, if I had a vote, I would vote Sabathia, Greinke and Justin Verlander into the Hall of Fame. Time will tell how the voters really feel about the trio. All three are at least better than Jack Morris.

MLB Game Picks - Monday: September 23, 2014

After a very good week last week, the new week started with a rather uninspired .500 record on Sunday. The Yankees' offense finally killed their chances and let down impressive efforts of the retiring Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera. The Orioles lost their third straight to the Rays so the Orioles and Yankees are all but officially done. The Cardinals lost due to sloppy fielding and once again, I came up wrong on the Pirates - Reds game. The season is down to six days.

There are twelve games on the Monday schedule. The picks:

• The Rays over the Orioles: The Rays might as well stick a fork in the Orioles for the last time. They so dominated this series that it was rather sad to see. Chris Archer has been reliable and should be better than Wei-Yin Chen.
• The Braves over the Brewers: This is the week that is tough picking teams that have already clinched their divisions. How inspiring will their play be? How long with their starting pitchers pitch? How many scrubs will they play? It is awful. I am still picking the Braves at home behind Mike Minor. Marco Estrada goes for the Brewers.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: Nate Eovaldi has pitched much worse at home than on the road. That is weird considering how big his home park is. Roy Halladay might give up a bomb to Giancarlo Stanton as Halladay has become homer prone. But the Phillies should win.
• The Rangers over the Astros: The Rangers get a breather with a series against the Astros. They will need some help though as they are now a game and a half out of the wild card race. Derek Holland over Jordan Lyles and the Wagoners.
• The Pirates over the Cubs: Jeff Samardzija has not pitched well at home and has not pitched well in September. That said, he is capable of a shut down game at any time. The Pirates need to get going as they are now two back of the Cardinals. Charlie Morton does not provide comfort to this picker.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Justin Verlander could use this game to figure out a few things. He probably will not pitch deep into the game though. Even as a team that is going to ease into the division win, the Tigers should still slide past Mike Pelfrey easy enough.
• The White Sox over the Blue Jays: Two of the biggest busts of the 2013 season meet in the last week of the season. J.A. Happ only pitches good against the Yankees. Jose Quintana is the no-decision king who has pitched quite well.
• The Cardinals over the Nationals: This pick concerns me. First of all, Tanner Roark has been fabulous and has not lost this season in seven decisions. Adam Wainwright is the leader of this Cardinals' staff, but he is not invulnerable. Yeah, this one could go either way. I have only picked the Cardinals for the Game of the Day four times. I did again yesterday. They have lost all four times.
• The Athletics over the Angels: Mike Trout has been sort of slumping. The rest of his offensive mates are deadsville. Garrett Richards is decent, but not a lock. A.J. Griffin seems a better pick though he might not go deep into the game.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Eric Stults finally got a win after a long, long drought. He has had a decent season. Brandon McCarthy has given up 22 hits in his last 12 innings of work but has allowed only five of them to score. A pretty neat trick.
• The Royals over the Mariners: Yordano Ventura had a decent MLB debut his last time out and should like pitching in that Seattle park. Brandon Maurer has not been good in any park. How soon until everyone starts calling the Royals' pitcher, Ace Ventura?

And the Game of the Day:

• The Reds over the Mets: The Mets are not exactly a pushover of a team for the Reds, but they get to face Aaron Harang in their small ballpark. That might not be pretty. Welcome back, Johnny Cueto.

Yesterday: 8-8

Week: 8-8

Month: 173-136

Season: 1315-1031

Games of the Day: 99-70

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: September 17, 2013

I did not expect both the Cardinals and Pirates to lose. I was worried about the Pirates and mentioned that Andrew Cashner had the stuff to shut them down. My worry was full of merit as he did just that. As for the Cardinals, they could not do much with Collin McHugh and after Lance Lynn threw a decent game, the Cards went to the Trevor Rosenthal well once too often.

I was also worried about the A's having a letdown after the Rangers' series and I should have listened to myself as they got killed by the Angels. And speaking of those Rangers, I figured they would rise up after the A's series. I figured wrong. They were awful and the Rays beat them easily behind Alex Cobb. The Rangers are in serious trouble.

But otherwise, I had a decent picking day. I picked James Shields perfectly. And I also figured Cliff Lee would win and he did. And my worry about Johnny Cueto (though I picked him anyway) was worrying about nothing. He was great.

There are sixteen games on the schedule as the Nationals and Braves will play twice to make up for yesterday's shooting postponement. My heart goes out to those shooting victims in what is a real tragedy.  Tuesday's picks:

• The Braves over the Nationals: I was going to cheat and just predict a split and then it would not matter which team won which. But that would be low so I will not. Mike Minor beats Dan Haren in the first game.
• The Nationals over the Braves: Okay, so Freddy Garcia pitched a great game his last time out. I can't in any lifetime believe that he will do it again. Tanner Roark is having himself some fun in the Majors and should have himself a good game.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: Brian Flynn is the opposite of Roark. He has made two big league starts and they have not gone well. Too many walks and too many hits have sunk him. Roy Halladay is a bit of a concern and he could give up a moonshot to Giancarlo Stanton. But he is the pick here.
• The Pirates over the Padres: I am worried about this game too. Eric Stults has lost his last six decisions even though he has not walked anyone in his last three starts. Sooner or later he is going to win. Will it be today? Jeff Locke will try to keep that from happening and inch the Pirates closer to where they want to be.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: I am grasping at straws here for the Yankees. They looked so bad in the Red Sox series and the last time they played the Jays, they were treated rudely. But I think the Yankees will hit R.A. Dickey in the dome and that Andy Pettitte will benefit from having Brendan Ryan at short.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Two years ago, the Orioles did a number on the Red Sox down the stretch and eventually knocked the beantowners out of the playoffs. Nobody is beating the Red Sox out of the playoffs this year. Ryan Dempster is a concern. But the Red Sox should beat Scott Feldman.
• The Giants over the Mets: Yusmeiro Petit has been the bomb for the Giants. He has a six to one strikeout to walk ratio and a 1.00 WHIP. That is great pitching. In other words, he has been what Zack Wheeler would look like with better control. It will come.
• The Bay Rays over the Rangers: The Rangers are sliding out of control and I cannot see them beating the Rays on their home turf. Jeremy Hellickson over Alexi Ogando.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: Marco Estrada has quietly put together three good games in a row with 23 strikeouts in his last 20.2 innings pitched. And those were against the Cards, Angels and Reds. Nice. I am picking him over Jeff Samardzija.
• The Reds over the Astros: Mike Leake reminds me of a young Andy Pettitte. His peripherals never blow you away but on a good team, he just wins and wins. He will win today against the Astros that will lose their 100th game of the season. Jordan Lyles will not be able to stop it.
• The Indians over the Royals: Aren't the Royals still slightly in this wildcard race? They why are they choosing to give Yordano Ventura his big league debut? Yeah, the kid has a big arm. But this is a longshot, isn't it? I have to go with Corey Kluber.
• The White Sox over the Twins: My gosh, I am predicting the White Sox to win two in a row. Somebody take my temperature, quick. Jose Quintana and his fiery self wins over Mike Pelfrey, who has been bloody awful.
• The Cardinals over the Rockies: I have to admit that I have no idea who will win this game. Joe Kelly and Juan Nicasio seem like a wash to me. Coors Field means that anything can happen. Both teams are missing key players. I have no idea.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: The Dodgers are banged up and now have to face Patrick Corbin who is pitching like he caught his second wind after a dead period. Corbin out-duels Zack Greinke in this one.
• The Athletics over the Angels: The A's had their little party hangover yesterday and get back to business today. Sonny Gray should get the job done and the A's should do just fine against Garrett Richards.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Tigers over the Mariners: Brandon Maurer has given up thirteen runs in his last ten and a third innings. Ouch. If that continues, the Tigers will devour him. Anibal Sanchez should be good enough no matter how Maurer does.

Yesterday: 7-4

Week: 18-8

Month: 121-100

Season: 1263-995

Games of the Day: 96-67

MLB Game Picks - Friday: August 30, 2013

I am so bored with myself. Six straight days of mediocre, blah picking will do that. The week is only six picks above .500. Most of the days are above .500, but only slightly or barely. And yesterday was no different. Heck, I know you cannot predict what will happen in a baseball game. The mighty Red Sox can lose a game as Jon Lester was not quite as good as Chris Tillman. Yovani Gallardo can come back from the disabled list and be completely lights out. The poor pitching Angels can pitch a shutout against the Rays with Jason Vargas no less.

But still. Mediocrity day after day can get to you after a while.

Friday's picks:

• The Phillies over the Cubs: The Cubs will play their traditional Friday day game at home and those will be a lot more fun when the team is better. Jeff Samardzija is good enough to hold down the Phillies, but his team will not score against Roy Halladay, who is back and a welcomed sight (except in Chicago).
• The Yankees over the Orioles: I only pick the Yankees because they are at home where they have a better chance to win. All the Bronx team can really do at this point is act as spoilers. There are too many wildcard teams ahead of them. CC Sabathia over Miguel Gonzalez.
• The Nationals over the Mets: The Nationals are hot right now and the Mets are also playing pretty well. And Dillon Gee has been pitching better than Jordan Zimmermann has. But a hot Nats' lineup is much more imposing than a hot Mets' lineup.
• The Pirates over the Cardinals: The Cards have trouble against lefties. Francisco Liriano has been one of the hottest lefties in the game this season, even though he was humbled a bit in his last start. Shelby Miller can shut the Pirates down though. This game and this series will be interesting.
• The Blue Jays over the Royals: Mark Buehrle gets scoffed at pretty regular. But year after year, he is solid enough to make his mark. And he has been very good in the last month and a half. He can quickly shut down the Royals with an assortment of junk. Ervin Santana was pitching great, but has seemed to hit a wall lately.
• The Tigers over the Indians: The Tigers really spiked the Indians the last time they played and that was at the Indians' home park. This one is in Detroit. Rick Porcello goes against Zach McAllister which should be a pretty even pitching match-up.
• The Red Sox over the White Sox: I am hesitant to pick the Red Sox with Ryan Dempster on the mound. Despite his killer Harry Carey imitation, he has not pitched well this season. But this is the Red Sox we are talking about against the White Sox. Hector Santiago throws left-handed and that is the only reason he has a chance against the Red Sox. It sure seems like the Red Sox get more home games than anyone else.
• The Braves over the Marlins: Two young pitchers here. Julio Teheran goes for the Braves and the young phenom, Jose Fernandez, goes for the Marlins. If this game was in Miami, I would pick Fernandez every time. On the road, I will go with the Braves.
• The Angels over the Brewers: The Angels lose the DH in this series, but they really haven't had much of one since Albert Pujols went down anyway. Jered Weaver should win though the Brewers have been pesky lately. Wily Peralta goes for them.
• The Mariners over the Astros: This is a very exciting day for the Mariners and their fans as Taijuan Walker and his cool name and reputation takes the mound and makes his MLB debut. The #5 prospect in baseball has a big arm and his minor league numbers are a bit inflated because of the PCL. Brad Peacock goes for the Astros.
• The Reds over the Rockies: Bronson Arroyo pitching at Coors Field is a little frightening. But considering he is facing Jeff Manship, most reservations disappear.
• The Diamondbacks over the Giants: I really do not know how to pick this game. Tim Lincecum is so unpredictable and I don't like his chances in the desert air. Randall Delgado seems to have a better chance to me. But the D-backs have disappointed me all season.
• The Bay Rays over the Athletics: I get to rhyme this one if I say, "The Rays over the A's." But the good David Price better show up to make this prediction come true. Jarrod Parker is better at home though and that makes the pick more complicated.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: The Dodgers at home is always a good pick, even more so when Hyun-jin Ryu is pitching there. Eric Stults is going for the Padres. The Dodgers do need to just get over themselves about Puig though.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Rangers over the Twins: This seems like a mismatch, which is always frightening to me for some reason. Yu Darvish should completely dominate this game and Liam Hendriks is a 4-A kind of pitcher.

Yesterday; 5-4

Week: 35-29

Month: 222-169

Season: 1125-882

Games of the Day: 85-60   -2

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: May 5, 2013

Another day, another postponement. This time it was the Mets and Braves down in Atlanta. I am not sure if the game had been played would have helped or hindered what ended up as a pretty good day. Jeremy Guthrie was terrific for the Royals. Phil Hughes was great for the Yankees. The Nationals finally won a game that Stephen Strasburg started, though he did not get the win. Alexi Ogando shut down the Red Sox as predicted. Hisashi Iwakuma shut down the Blue Jays as picked here.

But there were some surprises. David Price got smoked at Coors Field as Jon Garland continued his comeback season. Jose Fernandez was brilliant for the Marlins as the Phillies only got one hit--by Freddy Galvis of all people. Scott Kazmir got his first win since 2010 and although I am happy for him, his effort killed that pick.

But overall, it was a pretty good day after some not so good days. Sunday is here and it is always the best day of the week in baseball. The picks:

• The Indians over the Twins: Here comes that Muppets chef again. Say it with me now: Corey Kluber. Saying that name in chef voices is one of life's true pleasures. And, yes, I am an idiot. Mike Pelfrey goes for the Twins. Don't look now, but the Indians are at .500.
• The Yankees over the Athletics: Dan Straily is the kind of pitcher who gives the Yankees fits. He has only walked one batter so far in eleven plus innings. But he is right-handed and at least that helps. Andy Pettitte needs to be better than he was in his last outing.
• The Blue Jays over the Mariners: Are any teams as low as the Blue Jays are right now? Holy cow, it has been unbelievable how seldom this team even has a chance to win a game. Brandon Morrow is going to have to pitch a great game. Joe Saunders is going to have to have a bad BABIP game. But somehow this Toronto team needs to win a game.
• The Braves over the Mets: The rain-out allows the Braves to skip Teheran and go with their ace, Tim Hudson today. That helps their cause. Jonathon Niese being left-handed plays into the Braves' hands as the Braves as a team have an 85 point OPS advantage against southpaw starters than right-handed starters. See? And you folks still think I wing this, right?
• The Pirates over the Nationals: The Nats' lineup misses Bryce Harper and I think Mike Morse. I still do not get that move. But anyway, Wandy Rodriguez is going to shut them down and the Pirates will score a few off of Gio Gonzalez, who has not yet hit his strike this season.
• The Brewers over the Cardinals: Yeah, this is probably a stupid pick as the Brewers are the Blue Jays of the National League where nothing is going right. But traditionally, Jaime Garcia has not pitched well on the road. And Marco Estrada is capable of pitching a good game. The bullpens on these two teams! Ugh!
• The Reds over the Cubs: First of all, I have picked all home teams and that is scaring me. Second of all, the Cubs are pitching Edwin Jackson, who is showing why all those GMs over the winter said, "Um, no thanks." Mat Latos needs to avoid Alfonso Soriano's bat, which is heating up.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: Okay, back to normal. Not that Roy Halladay will ever get back to his normal. But he should beat the Marlins. Kevin Slowey pitches Slow stuff and sloweyer and sloweyest stuff which could baffle the Phillies' weak lineup though.
• The Rangers over the Red Sox: Oh! I would pay to see this one: Jon Lester versus Yu Darvish? Delicious match-up. I will take the Rangers at home.
• The Orioles over the Angels: Sheesh, Angels. How can I ever pick you? In desperation, you start Jerome Williams who has been terrific in long relief. But as a starter? We'll see. And then he will only go five or six innings and then there is no Jerome Williams to relieve. Then what? Jason Hammel will continue to defy logic as all Orioles' pitchers do.
• The Tigers over the Astros: Could Philip Humber lose twenty games this season? It has not been done in a very long time and he has a shot at 0-6. And guess who he gets to go against today: only Justin Verlander.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: I have a good chance to go with my man-crush here in Ian Kennedy. His fly ball pitching should work well at Petco. Edinson Volquez has not been as laughable lately though.
• The Rockies over the Bay Rays: The Rockies are raking. Tulo and CarGo and the rest are enjoying Coors Field to the fullest. Alex Cobb's stuff will not play as well in the thin air. And Jhoulys Chacin has been very good.
• The Giants over the Dodgers: Okay, you Giants. You win. It makes no sense that you always seem to find a way to win. But you do. And it is uncanny. Two walk-off homers in two days!? You guys are outdoing even yourselves. Today, somehow, you will even beat Hyun-Jin Ryu with a Matt Cain who has not won a game yet this season.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Royals over the White Sox: This is fun, eh Kansas City fans? This Royals team is fun to watch. They did not strike out at all in yesterday's game. How is that for fun? Wade Davis follows Guthrie's great start with one of his own as these things are contagious. Jose Quintana is the victim.

Yesterday: 9-5

Last week: 52-42

Month: 25-26

Season: 255-190

Games of the Day: 24-9

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: April 14, 2013

Yesterday's MLB Game Picks came out in the positive. But for some reason, it sure does not feel that way. The first three games of the day featured six aces in an incredible array of starting pitching. Two of those games were picked incorrectly as Tim Hudson beat Stephen Strasburg and Madison Bumgarner beat Jeff Samardzija. Then the Yankees lost and Phil Hughes got beat up pretty good and the picks were suddenly, 1-4. Fortunately, only two other games were incorrect the rest of the day. But one of those was the Game of the Day, so that feature is on a two game losing streak.

The amount of key injuries around baseball are sad. They are depriving us of some great players. Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Reyes, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Yoenis Cespedes and more. It seems every day brings bad news. Not only do these injuries effect picking games, but it deprives the fans of genuine and entertaining talent.

But to use the ultimate cliche, the show must go on. Here are Sunday's picks:

• The Phillies over the Marlins: Sure, there is all kinds of concerns about Roy Halladay, who starts today. And there should be. But this is the Marlins they are playing. And while the Marlins were correctly picked to win yesterday, those wins will become few and far in between. Kevin Slowey will make even the Phillies lineup look good.
• The Nationals over the Braves: These two teams are like Ali and Frazier fights. They are both such good teams. It is too bad for them that they are in the same division. The Braves have taken the first two and both those picks were wrong. Do I learn? Nah. Gio Gonzalez over Paul Maholm.
• The Reds over the Pirates:  Here is how I see this game. Obscure prospect, Phil Irwin, gets his Major League debut for the Pirates. He has good control and a decent strikeout rate in the minors. He pitches five innings of really nice baseball and matches Mat Latos, who finally has a good game. Then the bullpen blows the game for the Pirates. How is that for a literal pick?
• The Rays over the Red Sox: Can you tell that I really like Alex Cobb? I must to pick him over a very stingy Clay Buchholz so far this season. The combination of Buchholz and Lester could take the Red Sox all the way to the division title the way they are pitching. But Cobb wins today.
• The Twins over the Mets: Remember again that bad teams do win once in a while. The Twins will win sixty times, so the picks have to choose them wisely. Dillon Gee gives the Twins lineup a chance and Kevin Correia throws enough "at-em" balls to keep the Twins in the game. Bullpens will decide it.
• The Blue Jays over the Royals: I have no idea what to do with the Blue Jays' rotation anymore. Before the season, I thought they were perhaps the best in baseball. They have been terrible. Dickey gave some hope yesterday. Will Brandon Morrow pick up the torch? We will see. Ervin Santana will go for the Royals and the only real drama there will be how many homers he allows.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Can you say sweep, boys and girls? Jaime Garcia always has a good chance to win at home and Marco Estrada will surprise you once in a while. But it will not be today.
• The Giants over the Cubs: No, I am never picking Edwin Jackson again. Ever. Never. Ever. So, of course, he will win today. Picking Tim Lincecum for the Giants is no picnic either.
• The Angels over the Astros: In the battle for last place (Angel fans never expected to hear that), the Angels should get the better of a C.J. Wilson / Phil Humber match up. Neither starter is a solid pick though. Good luck with this one, William.
• The Tigers over the Athletics: Losing Cespedes is a big blow for this A's team. They still have some decent hitters though. But then again, Anibal Sanchez has started well for the Tigers this season. Jarrod Parker is always tough at home though. Ugh!
• The Padres over the Rockies: I hate to make this pick, but I do not trust Jorge De La Rosa and Clayton Richard only has a chance to win at home. So there you go.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: This is another game where I have no idea what to do. Josh Beckett and Trevor Cahill have both started the season with problems. Beckett is over the hill? Still capable of a good game? Trevor Cahill was jettisoned by the A's because they had better pitchers? And do? Gosh.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: I picked against Nick Tepesch in his debut and he did great. I picked twice against Brandon Maurer and will continue to do so as he is not ready for prime time for the Mariners. Rangers.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Hiroki Kuroda and Wei-Yin Chen have done this dance before and will do it again. Either team could win depending on how the ball bounces. Two very equal teams right now. Picking the Yankees at home.

And the Game of the Day!

• The White Sox over Indians: The Indians' lineup has picked up over the last few games, but again, the rotation is the problem. Today you have another start by Brett Myers and those kinds of starts are going to kill this team. Jake Peavy should get the win in this one.

Yesterday: 9-6

Last week: 57-32

Month: 104-62

Games of the Day: 9-4

The remarkably similar careers of Tim Hudson and Roy Halladay

Before launching further into the thought process of the bombastic heading of this post, some declarative statements need to be made. First, Roy Halladay has been a much more valuable pitcher over his career than Tim Hudson. Roy Halladay has won two Cy Young Awards and probably should have won another. Tim Hudson has never won a Cy Young Award and probably never will. Roy Halladay has accumulated ten more wins above replacement in his career according to Baseball-reference.com and twenty more according to Fangraphs. But all that being said, a lot of the same end results are remarkably similar.

Let's start with some basic (and now mostly discredited statistics):

Roy Halladay: 199-100 .666 winning percentage,  3.31 career ERA

Tim Hudson:  197-103  .654 winning percentage, 3.42 career ERA

That's pretty darned close, isn't it? Halladay has pitched 403 times and compiled 2,687.1 innings. Hudson has pitched 406 times with 2,682.1 innings. Those numbers are virtually identical.

Tim Hudson has given up 2,504 hits and 210 homers. Roy Halladay has given up 2,594 hits and 224 homers. Those numbers are pretty darned close too.

For his career, Roy Halladay has allowed a .666 OPS against with 3,811 total bases allowed. Tim Hudson has allowed a .674 OPS against with 3,675 total bases allowed.

Roy Halladay has allowed 987 earned runs. Tim Hudson has allowed 1,019. That is a total difference of 32 runs for virtually the same amount of innings pitched.

Roy Halladay has faced 11,005 batters in his career. Tim Hudson has faced 11,157. Roy Halladay has induced batters to hit into 248 double plays. Tim Hudson has turned 282 ground balls into double plays. Tim Hudson has allowed 55 sacrifice flies, Roy Halladay, 59.

Roy Halladay has a .625 winning percentage on the road. Tim Hudson has a .620 winning percentage on the road. Roy Halladay has won 90 games on the road. Tim Hudson has won 93.

Roy Halladay has pitched 94 times when his own team scored two runs or less and has won 19 of those games. Tim Hudson has pitched 91 times when his own team scored two runs or less and has won 19 of those games.

A batter leading off an inning against Roy Halladay has hit a home run 69 times against Roy Halladay in 2,737 chances. A batter leading off an inning against Tim Hudson has hit a home run 67 times in 2,764 chances.

Roy Halladay has a combined OPS against of .672 against non-pitchers. Tim Hudson has a combined OPS against of .688 against non-pitchers.

Tim Hudson has only loaded the bases with no outs 28 times in his career. Roy Halladay has only put himself in that position 32 times. Roy Halladay has an OPS against of .661 in high leverage situations. Tim Hudson has an OPS against of .657 in high leverage situations.

Are a lot of these statistics cherry-picked? Well, yes, sure. And in the final analysis, Roy Halladay has been the better pitcher. His K/BB ratio is much better, his xFIP is much better and so forth. The purpose of this post was not to build a case that Tim Hudson has been as good as Roy Halladay. But perhaps the purpose has been to show the final results have been much more similar than you might have thought.

Pitching dominates Thursday

Following MLB's third Opening Day was fantastic with a combination of televised games and talk on Twitter. What was truly fascinating about the day was that it took the New York Mets to score a run to end all the talk about the scoreless innings that began the day. In those early games, the score was 0-0 through three or four innings in all of them. It was a day of pitching magnificence.

While the Pittsburgh Pirates will not be anyone's idea of a high-scoring machine, Roy Halladay threw a gem. During Spring Training, there was all this concern about his velocity being down. And in all reality, Brooks Baseball showed his fastball below last year's average in the first game. But when you can pitch with the precision that Halladay does, what does velocity mean? He still managed twelve swinging strikes en route to five strikeouts with no walks and only two hits allowed in eight innings of work.

Erik Bedard was nearly as good for the Pirates. Or, the Phillies' offense is exposed for what it is, which could be a problem. Bedard didn't have much of a fastball (88.14 average) and didn't miss many bats (seven), but only gave up one run in his seven innings of work, giving up the only run of the game on a sacrifice fly. Jonathan Papelbon got his first save in a Phillies uniform.

Last year's Cy Young Award winner, Justin Verlander, was brilliant against the Red Sox. He topped out at 98 MPH and seemed to be able to ratchet up the heater when in tough situations or ahead in the count. The Red Sox are a great hitting team and thus Verlander only missed six bats in his eight innings. But he kept the Red Sox off balance with his terrific curve and change up and only yielded two hits and a walk in eight innings. Unfortunately for him, after going a perfect 49 for 49 in save opportunities in 2011, Jose Valverde blew his first opportunity of 2012. So give Verlander 23 wins this season instead of 24.

Jon Lester was good for the Red Sox, but not terrific. He only gave up one run in his seven innings, but had far too many three-ball counts and was helped by three double plays. Lester always seems preoccupied with the strike zone he is getting from the umpire. He needs to forget all of that and just pitch his game.

Stephen Strasburg did not disappoint in his first outing against the Cubs. Strasburg went seven innings and allowed one run on five hits and a walk. He averaged almost 96 MPH on his four-seam fastballs and almost 95 on his two-seamers. And he threw his curve for strikes 79 percent of the time. Strasburg struck out five and walked one. The strikeouts came in bunches late in his outing. 

Strasburg was matched by Ryan Dempster. Dempster only averaged around 89 MPH with his fastball but fought out of two jams by getting batters to miss his slider or tap it weakly. He left with two outs in the eighth and a runner on base after allowing only two hits and three walks. Unfortunately, Kerry Wood walked three batters to force Dempster's runner to score and tie the game. A Twitter bud said that Wood was getting squeezed by the home plate umpire but the Pitch/FX data does not support that theory. Only two of his thirteen non-strikes were borderline, one at the top of the strike zone and one at the bottom. Carlos Marmol then gave up the winning run in the ninth.

It was nice to see Brad Lidge get the save for the Nationals in his return after a lost season last year with the Phillies. Lidge struck out two in the ninth. He has lost his fastball which is now in the 89 MPH range but his slider is his go-to pitch now and--at least for yesterday--got the job done.

Johnny Cueto blanked the Miami Marlins to give the Cincinnati Reds their first win of the season. Cueto didn't miss many bats with only seven swinging strikes in his seven innings, but he did strike out four, allowing three hits and two walks. It did not help the Marlins' cause when Jose Reyes was thrown out stealing and Emilio Bonifacio was picked off. Perhaps it was a bit of a BABIP game for Cueto and aided by bad base-running, but the bottom line is that no runs scored.

Perhaps the most impressive pitching display was the eleven scoreless innings thrown by the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen. Last year's bullpen was such a mess for the Blue Jays that this performance has to give the team hope that a weakness has been turned into a strength.

The same couldn't be said for the Indians as Chris Perez blew the save and ruined a fantastic outing from Justin Masterson. The latter pitched eight innings of two-hit, one-walk ball and struck out ten Blue Jays. His only blemish was a bomb by Jose Bautista. But he is hardly the first pitcher to have that happen these past few seasons. Of Masterson's 27 batters faced, ten of them struck out and ten of them hit ground balls. It was a wasted brilliant performance.

Offense has been down the last two seasons and if Thursday was any indication, this season won't be any different. Pitching had the upper hand all day.

Roy Halladay - Easily the Best There Is

Roy Halladay of the Philadelphia Phillies makes pitching look so easy and opposing batters look so feeble against him that it's almost sickening to watch. The batters simply have no chance. They are not going to walk. They are not going to get into hitter's counts. The batter is either going to hit a slow roller someplace, strike out or pop the ball up. Not since Greg Maddux has a pitcher looked so reliably in control. Watch carefully because the kind of pitching Halladay is performing these days only comes around once in a generation.

Just look at his sick strikeout to walk ratios the past three years: 5.28, 5.94 and last year, 7.30. Those are Maddux-like numbers from his early days with the Braves. Some of the numbers are unbelievable. For example, Halladay got to a 3-0 count only 17 times in all of 2010 in 945 opposing plate appearances. That's 1.7 percent folks. Contrast that to another pretty good pitcher in C. C. Sabathia, who got to a 3-0 count 54 times. Also consider that Roy Halladay only needed to intentionally walk one batter in all of 2010. One.

The other thing that strikes this Fan about Halladay is how tenacious he is. In games where the Phillies scored two runs or less in 2010, his ERA was 1.72. In other words, he wasn't going to give up no matter what. That he won four of those ten decisions is remarkable when you consider that almost all pitchers lose pretty much all of those games.

Most pitchers do really well when they get to an 0-2 count. With Halladay, you might as well start walking to the dugout if you're the batter. When the at bat was determined on an 0-2 pitch, the slash line against Halladay was .100/.099/.130. And say the batter somehow managed to continue the at bat after an 0-2 count, then the slash line only improves to: .151/.163/.215.

Now here's the Fan's favorite statistic for Halladay in 2010: In 945 opposing at bats last year, Halladay threw a first pitch strike 532 times or 56.3 percent of the time. Here's the Fan's second favorite statistic for Halladay in 2010: Roy Halladay had an OPS against of .554 against all lead off batters. But there is more. There is so much more.

Halladay's home park is a notoriously good hitting park. And yet, Halladay's OPS against at home of .634 was better than his road OPS against of ..659. And just how good is that OPS against, both home and on the road? There were only six batters in all of the majors leagues last year that had an OPS of .650 or less and qualified for the batting title. So in essence, Halladay was pitching to a lineup full of Erick Aybar every single game. Aybar finished with a .636 OPS in 589 plate appearances for the Angels last year.

And of course, there is no let up in Roy Halladay, known for his legendary work ethic and showing up at the ballpark before six in the morning. In eleven spring training innings so far in 2011, he's yet to give up a run and has only yielded seven hits.

Roy Halladay is special. He's the best pitcher in baseball and whether you root for the Phillies or against, enjoy each and every one of his starts. We won't see anything like him for a long while.

Halladay: First Philly Starter Since John Denny...to...Wait...Who?

To no one's surprise, Roy Halladay was unanimously chosen as this year's Cy Young Award winner. Halladay certainly deserved the honor and easily was the best pitcher in the National League. The AL winner is announced tomorrow and that one will get some discussion. Reading through some of the articles listing Halladay's achievements, it was stated that Halladay is the first Philly starter since John Denny to win the award. Denny won the award in 1983. This Fan can't remember him or that season at all. The only Denny this Fan can recall is Izzy's sick boyfriend on Grey's Anatomy.

It's funny how selective the memory is. If the eyes are closed, an image of Frank Howard, Elston Howard, Phil Rizzuto, Ron Bloomberg and a host of others are easily recalled. Yet a player from this writer's lifetime died the other day. His name was Ed Krkpatrick. Don't remember him at all and he played quite a few years. The same goes for John Denny. So just for kicks, this Fan figured to go look at his B-R page and see what he was all about. It didn't help much.

Denny's season in 1983 can be best summed up as a fluke. He had had only two other very good seasons before 1983 and that was way before for the Cardinals in 1976 and 1978. After 1978--a year in which he pitched eleven complete games and pitched the most innings of his career at that point--Denny struggled and missed chunks of the next bunch of seasons due to various ailments. He wandered up to Cleveland, where he toiled for two years, one being quite good. The Indians traded Denny to the Phillies in 1982 for which he got into four unspectacular games and lost two of them. With that lead in, there was no hint that Denny could explode on the scene like he did in 1983.

"Explode" isn't the right word because Denny was never an explosive pitcher. He averaged 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings for his career and never strayed much higher than that in any of his years. But it was like he ran into Dave Duncan or something in 1983 (Claude Osteen was his pitching coach there). His walks per nine had been over four for the five previous seasons up to that one and in 1983 he only walked 2.0 batters per nine. Combine that with a good luck BABIP of .284 and an exciting pennant race team like the Phillies that year and it all clicked for Denny. He ended up winning 19 games against seven losses with an ERA of 2.37. He only gave up nine homers for a league leading rate of 0.3 per nine. He won thirteen of his last fifteen decisions.

Denny got the loss in his one playoff appearance on three unearned runs but was 1-1 in the World Series the Phillies eventually lost to the Orioles. His win was the only win the Phillies had in that World Series. It was just one of those years and he won the Cy Young Award.

The following season, Denny pitched even better. His WHIP went all the way down to .0978 and his BB/9 rate went down further to 1.7. But Denny only got fourteen decisions out of his 22 starts and half of them were losses. He started to have arm problems and missed eleven starts. The year after that, he was again up to 33 starts, but the magic was gone. His walk rate was back over three, his WHIP was 1.452 and he went 11-14.

He only pitched one more year after that for the Cincinnati Reds. He was better than he was in 1985 and he went 11-10. But he retired the following year, just three years after his Cy Young season. Denny was later a pitching coach with the Diamondbacks, few of whose games this writer ever gets to watch.

So Denny wasn't like Doc. Doc has had an entire career of success. Doc's season was expected after moving over from the tough AL East to the National League and that's just how it turned out. Denny's season was so out of the blue that it had to be a shock at the time. But if it was a shock this Fan missed it or wasn't paying attention. Halladay was a Number One pick, Denny was selected in the 29th Round.

In any case, much to the Fan's surprise, there was a guy who pitched for the Phillies and once won a Cy Young Award and rode a magical season into the World Series. Just as quickly as he jumped to that kind of success, it melted away. Just because it isn't remembered, doesn't mean it didn't happen. Congrats, Mr. Halladay, on a fantastic season.

Torn Between Two Throwers...Feeling Like a Fool

Hoo boy, that's an old song now. This post is about the conflict that comes to pass for this writer after reading so many posts about how (statistically), Tim Lincecum's two-hit, fourteen strikeout performance against the Braves was better than Roy Halladay's no-hitter. While this writer is on the path of righteousness concerning sabermetrics and Win Scores and all the rest, on some level within the soul, there is a little boy screaming, "But who won?"

Well, they both did. Both pitchers won the game. Neither gave up a run. The Reds are a better hitting team than the Braves. Let's just say that both performances were magnificent. But heck, no-hitters may be statistically lucky, but let's just say they count more.

Some times, these arguments remind the Fan of golf statistics. Two guys are vying for a tournament. Most of the stats favor one golfer. He averaged 1.3 putts per hole. He was on the green in regulation 95 percent of the time. According to nine out of ten statistics for the tournament, this one golfer was a better golfer that week. But he didn't win. The other guy won. The guy with the lesser stats is going home with $1.3 million and the guy with all the stats is getting less than half that. That's the problem with stats being the be all and end all of conversations. The year the Cardinals won the World Series, every stat in the book says they shouldn't have won anything that year. But they did.

So the bottom line for this old Fan is that statistics are a guide. They provide useful information. They aid in planning match ups and in constructing your team. Those that ignore them get Juan Pierre to lead off for them. But in the end, a World Series win trumps the stats and a no-hitter trumps a masterpiece that Lincecum threw. That's how the Fan sees it anyway.

You're Kidding Me, Right?

[[switching to first person mode]]  I didn't get to watch the Phillies/Reds game which is a shame because I missed something really special. I missed something amazingly special. When I first heard about it, my first reaction was, "You're kidding me, right?" I mean, come on. Sure, I expected Halladay to be very good like he always is. I figured he would be tough for the Reds. But a no-hitter? Against the best offense in the National League? No, I never would have expected that. Not in a million years.

From what this news story said, there wasn't even close to a hit during the game. According to the linked story, Rollins had to be a  bit rangy a couple of times but other than that, it was easy pickings for Halladay. As usual during games like that one, little credit is given to the catcher. But Ruiz is outstanding and Halladay mentioned how he got in a rhythm early and mentioned his catcher as a big reason for that. But again, a good rhythm is something I would believe. But a no-hitter?

The unfortunate fact for the Reds and the National League is that Halladay's performance during the season and now the post season--the 21 wins--the two no-hitters--the WAR Halladay racked up, all point out one very essential thing. The National League is not in the same class as the American League. Halladay was always the best pitcher in the American League. But he was never this good. And believe me, you can't get any gooder than this. (yeah, the bad English was on purpose). The Phillies are the only team in the National League that can play heads up with the American League. And the poor Reds are finding that out first hand. LaRussa couldn't beat them. Torre couldn't beat them. Bobby Cox couldn't beat them. If the Phillies are not in the World Series, it would be one of the biggest shocks since Lou Piniella's Seattle Mariners bowed out in the first round after winning 111 games. Or was it 114? Well, you get the point.

Which brings up a very important point. Well, it's important to me anyway. When teams are talking about unfair competitition and lack of competitive balance and teams being able to buy the best players, how come nobody ever talks about the Phillies? How come they get a pass? The Phillies play in one of the best markets, they can wildly overpay their first baseman, they can afford to go out and get Lee last year and Halladay and Oswalt this year and nobody cries foul. Why is that?

You have to understand that I don't give a rat's posterior on how the Phillies get to where they are going. I'm definitely a social Darwinist when it comes to baseball. Hey, if a team plays their cards right and is successful and can buy an advantage, then good for them. While Loria is pocketing the Yankees' and Red Sox's money, that's his problem if he can't field more than a .500 team. So, personally, I have nothing but admiration for how the Phillies have operated. I'm just wondering why they are never in those same gun scopes that other teams are when they do the same thing. You've never seen a headline that read, "The Phillies: The Best Team Money Can Buy."

Wow, how did I get this off track? Must be because I went to first person. This was about Halladay right? Holy Hanna! As a friend of mine uses as an expletive, Halladay threw a no-hitter! You're kidding me, right?

How the Phillies Can Win the World Series

Those amazing Phillies have done it again. For like the 100th year in a row, it didn't appear that they were going to make it to the post season. And once again, the Phillies hung around and hung around and inched their way to the top. This Fan knew it was coming though. In fact a post was devoted to them about a month and a half ago stating that they were far from dead and look out in September. And they have four really good reasons they have risen to the top once again. Those reasons? Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt and Blanton.

Baseball-reference.com currently has Halladay as the number one pitcher in the National League in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). They list Oswalt and number 8 and Hamels at number 9. Fangraphs rates Halladay number one, Oswalt at 9 and Hamels at 14.

Halladay's ERA was 2.19 in the first half and 3.01 in the second half. So you might be thinking that he's slipped a little bit. But those numbers are a bit misleading. In the second half, Halladay has walked nine batters in twelve starts and his K/BB ratio in the second half is 9.11 to 1. Holy smokes!

Cole Hamels has an ERA in the second half of 1.98. Incredibly, he's only won four of those twelve starts despite striking out 10.2 batters per nine innings and having a K/BB ratio of 5.83.

Roy Oswalt has gone 7-1 since joining the Phillies with a 1.94 ERA and a WHIP of 0.947. And those numbers wouldn't even be that high if it wasn't for his first start which accounted for his lone loss when he was asked to pitch the same day he joined the team.

Joe Blanton is 4-1 in the second half with a 3.68 ERA. His K/BB ration in the second half is a healthy 3.55. Blanton has been unlucky in both halves of the season with a BABIP of .336 in the second half after it was .322 in the first half. That's a pretty long streak of bad luck.

So those are your four pitchers for the playoffs. Unlike last year when you only needed three starters most of the post season, there are less days off this year (Thanks, Bud), so teams will need four starters. Let's hypothetically look at match ups for every series the Phillies could play.

If they play the Giants:

Game One: Halladay versus Lincecum. Toss up. Though the Fan would rather have Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Cain. Hamels takes that one.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Sanchez. Oswalt easily. Sanchez walks too many batters and needs to leave too many games too early.
Game Four: Blanton versus Zito. Advantage Blanton.

If they play the Reds:

Game One: Halladay versus Arroyo. Halladay is better.
Game Two: Hamels versus Cueto. It's got to be Hamels.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Homer Bailey. Oh please.
Game Four: Blanton versus Travis Wood. Slight edge to Blanton.

If they play the Padres:

Game One: Halladay versus Latos: Latos faded down the stretch. Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Garland: Hamels.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Richard: Oswalt.
Game Four: Blanton versus Luebke? Who? Blanton no matter who.

If they play the Rockies:

Game One: Hallday versus Jiminez: A draw or slight edge to Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Hammels (which is kind of fun): Hamels
Game Three: Oswalt versus Chacin? Who? Oswalt
Game Four: Blanton versus De La Rosa: Probably a draw in fairness.

If they play Atlanta:

Game One: Halladay versus Hudson: Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Hanson: Hamels.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Lowe: Oswalt.
Game Four: Blanton versus Who? Miles? Blanton

If they play the Yankees:

Game One: Halladay versus Sabathia: A draw.
Game Two: Hamels versus Pettitte: A draw
Game Three: Oswalt versus Barnett: Oh please.
Game Four: Blanton versus Hughes: Hughes in Philly or Blanton in New York. A draw?

If they play the Rays:

Game one: Halladay versus Price: A draw or slight Halladay edge.
Game Two: Hamels versus Garza: Hamels
Game Three: Oswalt versus Shields: Oswalt.
Game Four: Blanton versus Wade Davis: A draw.

If they play the Twins:

Game One: Halladay versus Liriano: Slight edge to Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Pavano: Hamels.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Slowey: Oswalt.
Game Four: Blanton versus Anybody Else: Blanton

If they play the Rangers:

Game One Halladay versus Lee: Lee.
Game Two: Hamels versus Wilson. A draw.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Hunter: A draw
Game Four: Blanton versus Lewis: Blanton

From this perch, the Phillies can out rotation anybody in the National League. They can out pitch the Rays. They have a slight edge over the Yankees. They out pitch the Twins. The Rangers might be their worst match up. Of course, all of those series would be more than just the rotations. You have to look at offenses and defenses and the bullpens, but more often than not, post season series hinge on the rotations. From where the Fan is sitting, the Phillies have never been in better position to win the World Series. And that is scary considering they've been in the last two and won one of them already.

The Phillies Couldn't Ask for More From Halladay

Roy Halladay has made four starts for the Phillies and he's won them all. Not only has he won them all, but he has finished two of those games and is averaging eight and a third innings per start. So far he has a 8/1 strikeout to walk ratio as he's walked only three batters in four games. His WHIP currently stands at 0.88. He's only given up one homer. Oh yeah, he's also batting .200: Pretty good for a former AL pitcher.

Could the Phillies have asked for anything more? Sure, Halladay needs to keep this up all season for the Phillies. But history indicates that he can and probably will. Is the National League this much worse than the American League where Halladay was always great, but never like this? It's like Halladay is playing in a sandbox with a bigger tractor than anyone else. It sure is fun to watch.