The obscure pitching awards of 2013

I have spent about a week now covering the darker side of baseball statistics encompassing the 2013 season. Call it a balancing of the books when it comes to the regular Awards Season that spends most of our time celebrating the greatness of players during this past season. For every Gold Glove, there are iron ones. For every Rolaids Relief Pitchers there were those that gave the heartburn. What follows are some of the more obscure pitching awards that will not be celebrated when they hand out the trophies.

The Lack of Deception Award
These starting pitchers did not make a living fooling anybody. Cole Hamels led starting pitchers by getting batters to swing at 37.7% of pitches outside the strike zone. These pitchers? Not so much. The four starting pitchers (minimum 100 innings) who least enticed batters to swing at pitches out of the strike zone were:

1. Sam Deduno - 24.1%
2. Jason Marquis - 24.5%
3. Felix Doubront - 24.9%
4. Nathan Eovaldi - 25%

The relief pitchers with the least amount of swings out of the strike zone were:

1. Sam LeCure - 25.4%
2. Kevin Gregg - 25.5%
3. David Robertson and Dale Thayer - 25.8%

The Starting Off With the Left Foot Award
Everyone makes a big deal out of first pitch strikes. "Get ahead on the count," the adage goes. Throwing a first pitch strike would be getting the at bat off on the right foot. These pitchers are not listening. The relief pitchers with the lowest percentage of first pitch strikes were:

1. Ryan Pressly - 45.7%
2. Jim Henderson - 48.6%
3. Josh Roenicke - 50.4%
4. Yoernis Medina and Tim Collins - 51.9%

The starting pitchers with the lowest percentage of first pitch strikes were:

1. Matt Moore - 50.9%
2. Samuel Deduno - 51.4%
3. Zack Wheeler - 52%
4. Ivan Nova - 52.7%  (pronounced, "Nover," if you are Jerry Remy)

Not that the opposite guaranteed success. Phil Hughes led the Majors in first pitch strike percentage (over 70%!) and that did not exactly lead him to a good season.

The Here It Is, Hit It and Hit It and Hit It Award
Everyone loves a pitcher that can miss bats. Francisco Liriano missed more bats than anyone in the Majors in 2013, followed closely by Yu Darvish. These starting pitchers did not miss many bats at all. The starting pitchers with the lowest percentage of swinging strikes were:

1. Jake Westbrook and Jeremy Guthrie - 5.1%
2. Lucas Harrell - 5.2%
3. Mike Pelfrey - 5.3%
4. Ryan Vogelsong - 5.4%

The relief pitchers with the lowest swinging strike percentages were:

1. Burke Badenhop - 5.9%
2. Seth Maness - 6.6%
3. Kevin Gregg - 7.0%

The Duck for Cover Award
The relief pitchers with the highest line drive percentages allowed were:

1. Robbie Ross - 28.4%
2. Jim Henderson - 28.3%
3. Greg Holland - 27.3%
4. Junichi Tazawa - 27.2%

The starting pitchers with the highest line drive percentages were:

1. Wade Davis - 28.6%
2. Ryan Vogelsong - 27.1%
3. Corey Kluber - 26.3%
4. Barry Zito - 25.5%

The Confound the Fielding Scouts Award
How do you set your defense when your pitcher's offerings always seem to find a hole in that defense? The starting pitchers with the highest opposing BABIPs were:

1. Wade Davis - .376 - which makes sense with his LD percentage.
2. Joe Blanton - .351
3. Barry Zito - .347

The relief pitchers with the highest BABIPs allowed were:

1. Jose Mijares - .410    Holy smokes!
2. Carter Capps - .365
3. Oliver Perez - .361

No one else was close!

The Outfielder Whiplash Award
Everyone loves the long ball...unless you are a pitcher. The relief pitchers with the highest percent of their fly balls going over the fence were:

1. Chris Perez - 20%
2. Brandon League - 19%
3. Carter Capps - 18.8%
4. Heath Bell - 18.5%
5. Kelvin Herrera - 18%

The starting pitchers with the highest percentage of fly balls going over the fence were:

1. Roberto Hernandez - 21.1%  (!)
2. Esmil Rogers - 18.5%
3. Jason Marquis - 18.2%
4. Joe Blanton - 18%

The Conga Line Award
These pitchers gave up the most base runners of any starting pitcher

1. Joe Saunders - 308
2. Jeff Samardzija and Jeremy Guthrie - 307
3. CC Sabathia - 304

These relief pitchers (90% or more appearances were in relief) with the most base runners were:

1. Anthony Swarzak and Josh Collmenter - 116
2. Adam Warren and TJ McFarland - 114

The Cannot Be Blocked Award

• These relief pitchers led all of baseball with nine wild pitches: Adam Ottavino, Cody Allen, Brandon League, Grant Balfour and Al Alburquerque. Alburquerque did his in the least amount of innings with 49 IP.

These starting pitcher led all of baseball with wild pitches:

1. Matt Moore and Trevor Cahill - 17
2. Edinson Volquez - 16

The Pitching From the Stretch Award

• Three Colorado Rockies' players tied for the lead with the most balks at three: Rex Brothers, Edgmer Escalona and Wilton Lopez. I think the Rockies need to hold a seminar on this thing as they easily led the Majors with 15 balks. No other team had more than eight. Stephen Strasburg also had three.

The Free Pass Award

• I don't know if this award should go to the manager or the pitcher...probably the manager. But Ronald Belisario walked the most batters on purpose with ten. Three others tied with eight.

The Aren't Walks and Strikeouts the Same Award
These starting pitchers (100 IP minimum) had the lowest strikeout to walk ratios in the Majors:

1. Jake Westbrook - 0.88  The only pitcher with more walks than strikeouts.
2. Lucas Harrell - 1.01
3. Jason Marquis - 1.06

The relief pitchers (40 IP minimum) with the lowest strikeout to walk ratios were:

1. Sandy Rosario - 1.20
2. Josh Roenicke - 1.25
3. Bryan Morris - 1.32
4. Tom Wilhelmsen - 1.36

The Let's Not Turn Two Award

• Aaron Harang gets special mention here. Despite allowing 199 base runners via hit, walk or HBP, Harang only induced four double-plays all season. Amazing.

The Run at Will Award

• Yovani Gallardo, Matt Moore, Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez pitched a combined 807.2 innings and not a single base steal attempt was stopped while they were pitching. At least Gallardo and Eovaldi picked one guy off.
• John Lackey led all of baseball with 36 successful base steals against. Scott Feldman was second with 30.

The Not Left On Base Award
Five starting pitchers ended up having 35% or more of all the base runners they put on base score. That could be bad luck, bad pitching, bad fielding, whatever. But it is what it is. The lowest left on base percentages for starters were:

1. Jordan Lyles - 62.8%
2. Edwin Jackson - 63.3%
3. Lucas Harrell - 64.3%
4. Edinson Volquez - 64.4%
5. Ryan Vogelsong - 64.7%

I probably could go on all day here, but after a couple of hours, my stomach is grumbling. Happy Veterans Day!

The first annual Kyle Davies Award - the anti-Cy Young

The first annual Dan Meyer Awards were a big success. While most of the world is focusing on players that succeeded in 2013, the DMAs focused on the dark side of batting statistics. Today, we are focusing on pitchers who were terrible in 2013. And despite this being more of a pitching era than a hitting era, there are no shortage of terrible pitching performances in this past season. This is the first annual Kyle Davies Award.

Kyle Davies pitched for seven seasons beginning in 2005 with the Atlanta Braves. After toiling there for two and a half years, the Braves traded him to the Royals for Octavio Dotel. If you really want to know how unsuccessful Kyle Davies was as a pitcher, all you have to do is ask any fan of the Kansas City Royals.

Davies compiled a lifetime ERA of 5.59 to go with a WHIP of 1.618 in 151 appearances, 144 of which were starts. Davies gave up over a hundred runs in two of his seven seasons. And it appears that he may not be done with his career. He pitched in the Twins' minor league system in 2013, which makes perfect sense when you think about the way the Twins pitch.

I could have named this award after a number of guys. There were guys like Adam Eaton, Jason Bere, Jimmy Haynes and Sidney Ponson I could have named the award after. But Davies is more recent in the mind of most, so he is our guy. The danger is that Davies is only 30 years old and who knows, he could come back and be decent and make a name change necessary.

Anyway, on with the awards. These are our candidates for starting pitchers. In order to qualify, a starter had to pitch 130 innings.

Barry Zito. Barry Zito was a hero in the 2012 post season. Unfortunately, that success did not carry forward to 2013. In essence, he was a disaster. He allowed 231 base runners in 133.1 innings. Woof. That's bad. That translates to a 1.70 WHIP which tied for the Major League lead with another of our candidates. Batters had this triple slash line against him: .318/.383/.491. Compare that to Matt Carpenter's triple slash line: .318/.392/.481. Zito's OPS against was .874. Carpenter's was .873. That means that every single batter Zito faced was Matt Carpenter! And that includes facing pitchers! His RA9-WAR was -2.4 and his rWAR was -2.6.

Edinson Volquez. Volquez is the cautionary tale for those who think Phil Hughes will settle down in a bigger park. The Padres thought the same thing when they acquired him as part of the Mat Latos trade. And that is what the Dodgers must have thought when they acquired him from the Padres. What were they thinking!? Volquez led the majors in earned runs allowed with 108 in 170.1 innings of work. Wee! His ERA was the third worst in baseball and although FIP puts him better, he still finished with a RA9-WAR of -2.4 and an rWAR of -2.4.

Lucas Harrell. God bless those Astros pitchers. They took the ball every fifth day and got hammered and still took the ball out there to do it again. That takes character, man. So don't forget that no matter how much we now make fun of his numbers. Harrell tied with Zito for the highest WHIP at 1.70. He struck out 5.21 batters per nine while walking 5.15 batters per nine. His 88 walks allowed was the highest in baseball. His FIP of 5.42 was the highest on our list. His winning percentage of .261 was the third lowest among starters and worse than his team's. RA9-WAR of -2.2 and rWAR of -1.6.

Joe Blanton. The Angels hoped that Joe Blanton would resurrect his career in California. Instead, that career sank to new lows. He went 2-14 with an ERA of 6.04. Ouch. His OPS against was .904! That means that every single batter that faced him was Edwin Encarnacion. Blanton allowed homers at a clip just under two per nine innings. In other words, he got blasted on a regular basis. Blanton finished the season in the bullpen but still compiled the necessary innings with 132.2. RA9-WAR of -1.9 and an rWAR of -2.0.

Dishonorable mention: Wade Davis, Ian Kennedy, Edwin Jackson, Jordan Lyles and Scott Diamond.

Those are our four candidates. So which would qualify for the worst? Gosh, it is hard to pick. If we combined the RA9-WAR with rWAR, the tallies would be: Zito at -5, Volquez at -4.8, Harrell at -3.8 and Blanton at -3.9. If you went by that, Zito would be the winner.

All of Zito's problems were on the road. He was actually 5-2 with an ERA under four at home and was 0-9 on the road with an ERA over nine! It was Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde-like. Volquez was equally bad at home and on the road and in the first half and second half. He was consistently bad.

Harrell was bad at home and worse on the road and bad in the first half of the season and worse in the second half. The same thing holds true with Blanton, who did not start a single game in the second half of the season.

All are great candidates for this award and I would not have a problem with any of the four choices. I think I would go with Edinson Volquez because he had the most innings of sucktitude and was consistently bad at home, on the road, in the first half, in the second half, as a Padre and as a Dodger. He never deviated from his deviant pitching. He is my pick for the 2013 Kyle Davies Award.

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: June 29, 2013

At least last night finished in the black for a change. At least for once, an extra-innings game went my way. At least the Game of the Day was correct for the second day in a row. Two blown saves cost me but I am sure that Matt Harvey is more ticked off about one of them than I am. Two position players pitched last night to show you how offensive the night was. There were 46 runs scored in the Indians - White Sox double-header alone. The funniest (in a sad way) pick of the day was picking the Dodgers and Chris Capuano to win. They lost 16-1, making that one of the most lop-sided incorrect picks of all time. Heh.

Saturday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Mets: I have a habit of picking against Dillon Gee and it has burned me in the past. And I fully realize that picking the Nats to win means taking a huge chance on Taylor Jordan as he makes his Major League debut. Jordan has been selected to the Futures Game, but if he pitches well, he will have other obligations. Excellent control numbers in the minors have led to the jump from Double-A to the big leagues for Jordan.
• The Diamondbacks over the Braves: I have picked Tim Hudson over and over and he is 4-7. I am not saying this is all his fault. I am just saying the long-time ace is no longer a lock to win. Ian Kennedy is my pick instead.
• The Cardinals over the Athletics: Freakin' Bartolo Colon. Heh. His win over the Cards yesterday knocked the Cards out of first place for the first time in a long time. The Cards have their big guy, Adam Wainwright on the bump. Will he be better than Jarrod Parker at home? That is the pick.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Felix Doubront is never a lock. But I like his chances better than Esmil Rogers. There are two good lineups here and the game will depend on which one clicks against the starting pitcher.
• The Angels over the Astros: Josh Hamilton is starting to hit a little bit. Mike Trout is flying. But am I really picking Joe Blanton to win a game? I guess so. Jordan Lyles is pitching for the Astros.
• The Indians over the White Sox: These two teams have to be exhausted. Both need big outings from their starters. Neither are predisposed to doing so. So, if I have to make a choice, I will go with Ubaldo Jimenez over Dylan Axelrod.
• The Royals over the Twins: Yet another Major League debut, this time for Kyle Gibson, a somewhat highly rated pitching prospect for the Twins. He is 25 though, so his time might be now. But I cannot pick two debuts in one day. And yet, the other choice is Wade Davis of the Royals. Man. And it is totally freaking me out that I am picking all visiting teams to win. Not good.
• The Rockies over the Giants: Matt Cain has pitched twelve times at Coors Field and is 6-3 there. So why am I picking against him? Part of the reason is that the Giants are slumping. Part of it is that Cain's ERA there is 4.50 meaning the Giants have to score five runs to win. I am going with Jorge De La Rosa.
• The Padres over the Marlins: I am still zero for the season when picking for or against Eric Stults. He has me totally bent over backwards and unable to get up. But I have to pick him here because I think he will be better than Jacob Turner of the Marlins.
• The Mariners over the Cubs: Aaron Harang's ERA is two runs lower at home than on the road. And it is totally weird that his ERA overall is 5.29 and yet his strikeout to walk ratio is 5.36. What strange numbers. Today will be his good day against a lineup for the Cubs that is not so hot. Jeff Samardzija is the victim of poor run support.
• The Reds over the Rangers: Nick Tepesch confuses me. He had three horrid starts in a row and then he pitches well against the Cardinals. Whuh? I never think of Mike Leake as an effective pitcher, but he is 7-3. So I guess I will go with the Reds.
• The Tigers over the Rays: Evan Longoria limped off the field. That is not good for the Rays. Chris Archer should not be able to keep up with Justin Verlander. But then again, Justin Verlander has not been able to keep up with Justin Verlander lately.
• The Orioles over the Yankees: The Yankees look very, very sad right now. Or maybe that is just me at the development. They have had a nice run. They are not a playoff team this year. I do not like picking Zach Britton as he is pretty terrible. But the Yankees cannot score and David Phelps will have a good outing wasted.
• The Dodgers over the Phillies: This is a good match-up of tough lefties. I think that Hyun-jin Ryu comes out ahead of Cliff Lee in the end.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Pirates over the Brewers: I do not even know who Donovan Hand is. So I looked him up. Meh. I will take Francisco Liriano in a heartbeat and the Pirates to continue their magical season.

Yesterday: 9-7

Week: 40-34

Month: 195-183

Season: 660-532

Games of the Day: 50-37

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: June 23, 2013

This Game of the Day thing is driving me crazy. To refresh your memory, the Game of the Day is not the most exciting game each day. Rather, it is the one pick I feel to be a lock. Now, in my mind, these picks should never be wrong. But that has never been the case. Back in 2011, the Game of the Day was correct 62.5% of the time. Last year it was 61.5%. The percentage was still higher than the regular picks, but not spectacular. This year has been a disaster. It started well at 22-8 at one point. But now, after a run that has been 24-27 since then (that's right, a losing record for 51 days), this year's tally is 56.8 percent, right around where the rest of the picks are.

Take yesterday for example. The Game of the Day was the Cardinals over the Rangers. Martin Perez was pitching for the Rangers. His career record to that point was 1-5 with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. The Cardinals are one of the best offenses in the game. Easy right? Nope. The Cardinals could only manage two runs on seven hits. Amazing.

Sunday's picks:

• The Twins over the Indians: I am not feeling Carlos Carrasco in this one. Oh no! Does that make this another Martin Perez pick? Have I learned nothing? Only that I will not make this the Game of the Day pick. Mike Pelfrey with the win.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: The Orioles riled up Jose Bautista, and that is never a good thing. Josh Johnson looked dominating his last time out. Yahoo says that Freddy Garcia is starting. MLB.com says TBO. Either way, it is not good.
• The Nationals over the Rockies: I am feeling Ross Detwiler today. Yeah, the odds are against me here. But Jorge De La Rosa is good, but not unbeatable and I have done well with Detwiler when I have picked him.
• The Mets over the Phillies: This should be a lock. Game of the Day, right? Just that I said it should be a lock makes me not want to do it. But gosh, Matt Harvey versus John Lannon? Come on, now, right?
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: I need this game to make my weekly prediction over at It's About the Money, Stupid, to be correct. Besides that, either Ivan Nova or Chris Archer has an equal shot at winning the game or being awful. So take the home team.
• The Brewers over the Braves: I am sick of picking the Braves and them getting shut out. They have an entire lineup of two-outcome players. Not well constructed on offense. It reminds me of last year's Yankees. Plus, I have never been a Paul Maholm fan. Not that I am a big fan of Alfredo Figaro Figaro Figaro. But he did win his last time out.
• The Royals over the White Sox: The White Sox have beaten the Royals all weekend. But I think that James Shields stops the bleeding with a big outing. Besides, I am not in favor of picking Dylan Axelrod on any kind of regular basis.
• The Cubs over the Astros: Jeff Samardzija should shine in this one. He has such great stuff. But then again, Jordan Lyles has gone 4-1 since joining the team. So who knows.
• The Angels over the Pirates: I made fun of Charlie Morton the last time he pitched and he poured salt on my wounds. Did you get it? Anyway, I am still picking against him. But that means I am picking Joe Blanton to win. Egads me.
• The Giants over the Marlins: Matt Cain is 5-3 with seven no-decisions. So, he is only winning 33% of his starts. That's not right. He should be the Marlins, especially with Nathan Eovaldi getting the start for the Fish.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: This series has been epic. Yesterday's game featured double blown saves. How do you pick a game like that? Well, having Mat Latos go against Randall Delgado is one way you break the ice.
• The Padres over the Dodgers: Pay no attention to Chris Capuano's last start. That was against the Yankees and they make all mediocre pitchers look sublime. The better pick here is Andrew Cashner. Would someone like to volunteer to teach Hanley Ramirez how to button a shirt?
• The Athletics over the Mariners: Jarrod Parker has been on a roll lately and I have picked against hime every time. So now I will pick him and he will tank, right? The Mariners start Jeremy Bonderman, whose success has confounded everyone, including me. This is not real, is it?
• The Cardinals over the Rangers: Adam Wainwright should get back to ace-ness in this one after a not-so-ace-like start last time out. Nick Tepesch does not fill me with goosebumps. This is another series that has been terrific.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Tigers over the Red Sox: Hey, Justin Verlander? How does it feel to be the second best pitcher on your team? I think the bum (hehehe) still beats the Red Sox and the Tigers score three or four off of Felix Doubront.

Yesterday: 8-7

Last week: 55-46

Month: 155-149

Season: 618-498

Games of the Day: 46-35

MLB Game Picks - Monday: June 3, 2013

Yesterday was not a good picking day. It would have been better if not for bullpens. The Reds had a 4-2 lead on the Pirates until Jonathan Broxton happened. The Tigers had a lead on the Orioles until Phil Coke happened. Without those two events, the day would have been decent. But that is a four game swing on the final tally. One of those baby Cardinal pitchers finally lost a game. Matt Harvey of the Mets was uncharacteristically shelled. And unbelievably, the Angels were beaten by the Astros again!

There are nine games on the schedule today with three of them being on the West Coast. Here are Monday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Indians: Lots of questions on this one. How good will Andy Pettitte be coming back from the disabled list? Will it be the good Justin Masterson or the bad one? Can the reeling New York Yankees get their act together? Will Terry Francona and Joe Girardi spend more than fifteen minutes praising each other?
• The Reds over the Rockies: Yes, Tyler Chatwood is 3-0 and has been lights out. No, I am not quite buying it. Yes, Bronson Arroyo can give up runs in bunches and no, he will not today.
• The Pirates over the Braves: The Pirates are a legitimately good team. Their record is not a fluke. I am not quite convinced by their offense, but the pitching has been there. A.J. Burnett could strike out ten Braves today as they are prone to do that. Then again, Burnett could give up half a dozen gopher balls too. Kris Medlen is 1-6. I never expected that to happen.
• The Brewers over the Athletics: Tough game to call. The A's always seem to find a way to win. Tommy Milone is the key to the game. He really has not pitched well since his May 7 start and that was five starts ago. The Brewers feature Ryan Braun, who loves him some lefty pitching. Marco Estrada is probably under-appreciated.
• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: Trevor Cahill has been much better the last few weeks. But Lance Lynn is a stud and the Cards' offense is terrific. I like the Cardinals here, especially at home.
• The Angels over the Astros: I have been picking it this way all weekend and have gone down in flames all weekend. I might as well finish the series being stubborn. If the Angels lose again, their manager should get sacked. Plain and simple. Joe Blanton and Erik Bedard are the starters.
• The White Sox over the Mariners: The White Sox have not won in a while, so they are due. John Danks has looked pretty good since coming back. Joe Saunders is always capable of baffling Major League batters for a game. This one can go either way.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: I might as well continue my season long streak of being zero for picking Eric Stults. I pick him to win and he loses. I pick him to lose and he wins. I think he will win today, so I picked him to lose. Desperation leads men to do strange things. Chris Capuano needs to have a good game. Eek.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Phillies over the Marlins: The Marlins just mashed the Mets for most of the weekend and are getting some offense all of the sudden. But Kyle Kendrick just somehow wins all the time. He just does. It is best not to think about it too much because your head will explode. Tom Koehler goes for the Fish.

Yesterday: 7-8

Week: 7-8

Month: 18-13

Season: 480-363

Games of the Day: 38-23

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: May 23, 2013

Wednesday was a decent day. The Game of the Day feature is on a bit of a losing streak. And a couple of games were surprises. The Nationals / Giants game was fantastic, but the pick got the final tally wrong. The Rangers winning behind Ross Wolf was a complete surprise. But overall, at least it was a positive day after several not so positive days.

A comment from yesterday provides me one more opportunity to tell you what this daily post is not. This is not some competition to Vegas betting lines. In fact, this daily post is not even about betting at all. If some of you use it that way, God help you. I am not picking by odds or by what experts say. All I do is simply look at the games each day, see the pitching match-ups, see who is home, weigh how teams are playing and then make a prediction. There is no science here. If that is not your cup of tea, that is fine. But again, I thought it was a good time to take a moment to tell you what this is and what it is not.

There are only five games being played today making this the lightest MLB day since early in the season. And the five games are fraught with difficult to decipher pitching match-ups.

Thursday's picks:

• The Cubs over the Pirates: I have never been a fan of Edwin Jackson. Perhaps neither have Major League GMs considering how often he has been traded in his young lifetime. But even if I have not been a fan, I know he is not as bad as he has pitched thus far. Jeanmar Gomez has had a couple of good outings and is due for some slippage.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays just took two of three from the Rays. But Brandon Morrow has not looked good this season. The Orioles have not even announced their pitcher for today and I still think they will win.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Rick Porcello gets no love in Detroit and he is pitching at home today. And that is enough to give this pick some pause. But even if this becomes a slugfest, the Tigers should outhit the Twins, especially with Scott Diamond on the mound.
• The Red Sox over the Indians: I love how the Indians are playing and I really wanted to pick them today. But with the Red Sox at home, I simply have to go with them despite the fact that Ryan Dempster has been rocked a couple of times there this season. He will have his share of good games and today will be one of them. Zach McAllister will keep it close.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Angels over the Royals: Book it. Joe Blanton is going to get his first win today. The Angels have finally gotten their offense rolling. The Royals look flat and lifeless, which is a shame. Ervin Santana coughs up some homers against his former team.

Yesterday: 9-6

Week: 31-26

Month: 170-137

Season: 399-291

Games of the Day: 34-17

MLB Game Picks - Monday: April 15, 2013

Happy Jackie Robinson Day and Patriots Day to all of you in Massachusetts and Maine. Nine games are taking place today, so Jackie Robinson Day might not have as big an effect as it would otherwise.

When is finishing at 7-7 a good day? When the day starts out 1-5. The Braves really wiped me out over the weekend along with the Nationals. I never thought they would completely whip the Nats like that. Picking the Rays to win is problematic because they cannot hit. And yes, Clay Buchholz was great too.  Jonathan Broxton had a complete meltdown for the Reds to cost that pick. The Cardinals and Blue Jays lost and the entire day looked like it was going to be a disaster.

So, yes, finishing at 7-7 feels like a win. Monday's picks:

• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: Boston hosts its annual Patriots (and Marathon) Day game at eleven o'clock in the morning. Ryan Dempster looked much better in his last start and other than Ben Zobrist and Evan Longoria, the Rays cannot hit. Jeremy Hellickson starts for the Rays and he is their weakest link.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: The Cardinals' bullpen cannot keep giving away games. But the Cards' offense should score more off of James McDonald to give Lance Lynn a big enough cushion.
• The Blue Jays over the White Sox: Mark Buehrle faces his old team for the first time. As always, Buehrle's success will depend on where his batted balls land. Gavin Floyd goes for the White Sox and the Blue Jays should have enough offense to take care of him.
• The Phillies over the Reds: Picking the Phillies is difficult since their offense is just not that good. But Cliff Lee has looked terrific this far and even though he is facing a tough Reds' offense, if he pitches like he has, he will be great. Bronson Arroyo will keep it a game if he keeps the ball in the park.
• The Angels over the Twins: The Angels are starting to hit finally but will need Joe Blanton to have a good game on the mound. The Twins can make that possible on any given night. Since they were snowed out yesterday (and it is supposed to snow today), Kevin Correia gets the start for the Twins.
• The Rockies over the Mets: Anything can happen at Coors Field but it seems that Juan Nicasio has a better chance at succeeding there than Dillon Gee does. The Rockies offense is rocking it too.
• The Athletics over the Astros: The A's got beat up over the weekend by the Tigers and have lost Cespedes for a while. But Tommy Milone should hold the Astros down and the A's should be able to score three or four against Erik Bedard.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Chad Billingsley better be good in this one or Eric Stults could sneak in with a win. All things considered, you have to take the Dodgers at home in this one.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Nationals over the Marlins: What better way for the Nationals to lick its wounds after a really bad weekend than to face the Marlins, who are hopeless. Wade LeBlanc is capable of keeping the score down, but the Marlins will not hit Jordan Zimmermann.

Yesterday; 7-7

Week: 7-7

Month: 111-69

Games of the Day: 10-4

The Game of the Day is not the most exciting game, but it s the pick that looks the safest to turn out the way it is predicted.

How the Phillies Can Win the World Series

Those amazing Phillies have done it again. For like the 100th year in a row, it didn't appear that they were going to make it to the post season. And once again, the Phillies hung around and hung around and inched their way to the top. This Fan knew it was coming though. In fact a post was devoted to them about a month and a half ago stating that they were far from dead and look out in September. And they have four really good reasons they have risen to the top once again. Those reasons? Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt and Blanton.

Baseball-reference.com currently has Halladay as the number one pitcher in the National League in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). They list Oswalt and number 8 and Hamels at number 9. Fangraphs rates Halladay number one, Oswalt at 9 and Hamels at 14.

Halladay's ERA was 2.19 in the first half and 3.01 in the second half. So you might be thinking that he's slipped a little bit. But those numbers are a bit misleading. In the second half, Halladay has walked nine batters in twelve starts and his K/BB ratio in the second half is 9.11 to 1. Holy smokes!

Cole Hamels has an ERA in the second half of 1.98. Incredibly, he's only won four of those twelve starts despite striking out 10.2 batters per nine innings and having a K/BB ratio of 5.83.

Roy Oswalt has gone 7-1 since joining the Phillies with a 1.94 ERA and a WHIP of 0.947. And those numbers wouldn't even be that high if it wasn't for his first start which accounted for his lone loss when he was asked to pitch the same day he joined the team.

Joe Blanton is 4-1 in the second half with a 3.68 ERA. His K/BB ration in the second half is a healthy 3.55. Blanton has been unlucky in both halves of the season with a BABIP of .336 in the second half after it was .322 in the first half. That's a pretty long streak of bad luck.

So those are your four pitchers for the playoffs. Unlike last year when you only needed three starters most of the post season, there are less days off this year (Thanks, Bud), so teams will need four starters. Let's hypothetically look at match ups for every series the Phillies could play.

If they play the Giants:

Game One: Halladay versus Lincecum. Toss up. Though the Fan would rather have Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Cain. Hamels takes that one.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Sanchez. Oswalt easily. Sanchez walks too many batters and needs to leave too many games too early.
Game Four: Blanton versus Zito. Advantage Blanton.

If they play the Reds:

Game One: Halladay versus Arroyo. Halladay is better.
Game Two: Hamels versus Cueto. It's got to be Hamels.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Homer Bailey. Oh please.
Game Four: Blanton versus Travis Wood. Slight edge to Blanton.

If they play the Padres:

Game One: Halladay versus Latos: Latos faded down the stretch. Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Garland: Hamels.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Richard: Oswalt.
Game Four: Blanton versus Luebke? Who? Blanton no matter who.

If they play the Rockies:

Game One: Hallday versus Jiminez: A draw or slight edge to Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Hammels (which is kind of fun): Hamels
Game Three: Oswalt versus Chacin? Who? Oswalt
Game Four: Blanton versus De La Rosa: Probably a draw in fairness.

If they play Atlanta:

Game One: Halladay versus Hudson: Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Hanson: Hamels.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Lowe: Oswalt.
Game Four: Blanton versus Who? Miles? Blanton

If they play the Yankees:

Game One: Halladay versus Sabathia: A draw.
Game Two: Hamels versus Pettitte: A draw
Game Three: Oswalt versus Barnett: Oh please.
Game Four: Blanton versus Hughes: Hughes in Philly or Blanton in New York. A draw?

If they play the Rays:

Game one: Halladay versus Price: A draw or slight Halladay edge.
Game Two: Hamels versus Garza: Hamels
Game Three: Oswalt versus Shields: Oswalt.
Game Four: Blanton versus Wade Davis: A draw.

If they play the Twins:

Game One: Halladay versus Liriano: Slight edge to Halladay.
Game Two: Hamels versus Pavano: Hamels.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Slowey: Oswalt.
Game Four: Blanton versus Anybody Else: Blanton

If they play the Rangers:

Game One Halladay versus Lee: Lee.
Game Two: Hamels versus Wilson. A draw.
Game Three: Oswalt versus Hunter: A draw
Game Four: Blanton versus Lewis: Blanton

From this perch, the Phillies can out rotation anybody in the National League. They can out pitch the Rays. They have a slight edge over the Yankees. They out pitch the Twins. The Rangers might be their worst match up. Of course, all of those series would be more than just the rotations. You have to look at offenses and defenses and the bullpens, but more often than not, post season series hinge on the rotations. From where the Fan is sitting, the Phillies have never been in better position to win the World Series. And that is scary considering they've been in the last two and won one of them already.