Friday, January 30, 2009

Cubs/Cards/Brewers/Astros Starting Pitching

Josh had a good comment taking exception to the pitching conclusions. They were a good call as the post took a long time to compile and the Fan got lazy and hazy toward the end when pitching came up. Taking a bit more of a scientific look, the ratings change, especially when looking at the top four in each team's rotation. One more look:

Cubs: Zambrano, Lilly, Harden, Dempster - Projected total Win Shares based on their averages: 50. They came in at 55 in 2009. Dempster repeating 2008 is a long shot. Lilly and Zambrano look to remain constant. Harden can do more and if he does, will keep the total at 50 or more.

Cards: Wellemeyer, Lohse, Wainwright, Pineiro - Projected Win Shares = 45. They came in at 41 last year. Pineiro could be better as could Wellemeyer. Carpenter is the wild card if he can come back.

Brewers: Parra, Bush, Suppon, Gallardo - 40 Win Shares among this staff would be a reach. They lost 32 Win Shares just in Sabathia and Sheets. The remaining top four came in at 35 last year. Capuano is the wild card. Gallardo and Parra have a lot of upside and could have dramatic upticks in their careers.

Astros: Moehler, Rodriguez, Backe, Oswalt - Came in at 38 Win Shares. Rodriguez is on the upswing, Backe was awful last year. Oswalt is as consistent as they come. Moehler will be league average at best. Hampton is the wild card and if he is right, can add 6 to 8 Win Shares to their total.

So, after further analysis (based on thought and not emotions this time), the Cubs are clearly Number 1 here followed by the Cardinals, then a dead heat with the Brewers and Astros.


Josh Borenstein said...

I used a Jedi mind trick to change your mind.

William said...

Careful, my friend, your geek is showing.