Rays/Yanks/Red Sox Position by Position

Rob Neyer called the Yankees the World Series favorites with the signing of Andy Pettitte. While the New York ball club had the most successful off season, it would be fun to look at all three teams by position:

Catcher
Red Sox: Let's be charitable and assume that Varitek will be back - Age 37: .263 Batting Average (lifetime), .775 OPS (lifetime), 8.17 Range Factor (last year), 22% base stealers caught per attempt, 14 Win Shares (Average year). Last year's numbers all well below lifetime marks. Trend? Done?
Yankees: Jorge Posada - Age 37: .277 Batting Average (lifetime), .867 OPS (lifetime), 7.83 Range Factor (about his averages over the years, early figures not kept), 22% base stealers caught per attempt, 22 Win Shares (average year). Injured last year. Can he come back? Anything left?
Bay Rays: Dioner Navarro - Age 25: .295 Batting Average, .756 OPS, 7.81 Range Factor (career), 38% base stealers caught per attempt. 30 Win Shares. Doesn't strike out much, but doesn't walk much either. Little power.

Edge: Rays. Younger catcher. Yankees and Red Sox could be in trouble at this position.

First Base:
Red Sox: Kevin Youkilis - Age 30: .312 Batting Average (.289 career), .959 OPS (.857 career), 9.23 Range Factor over his career at 1B, 23 Win Shares (career average as starter).
Yankees: Mark Teixeira - Age 29: .283 Batting Average (.290 career), .902 OPS (.919 career), 9.56 Range Factor (career), 26.4 Win Shares (career average).
Bay Rays: Carlos Pena - Age 31: .247 Batting Average (.251 career), .871 OPS (.851 career), 9.31 Range Factor (career), 26 Win Shares on average last two years.

Edge: Yankees by a nose. Really a wash here.

Second Base:
Red Sox: Dustin Pedroia - Age 25: .313 Batting Average (career), .828 OPS (career), 4.81 Range Factor, 22.5 Win Shares (two full years of data).
Yankees: Robinson Cano - Age 27: .303 Batting Average (career), .803 OPS (career), 5.13 Range Factor, 15.75 Win Shares (career average).
Bay Ray: Akinori Iwamura - Age 28: .279 (career), .747 OPS (career), 4.58 Range Factor, 16.5 Win Shares (average for two years in America).

Edge: Red Sox

Shortstop:
Red Sox: Jed Lowrie - Age 25: Not enough data to rate. 3.61 Range Factor in 49 games at short and did not make an error there.
Yankees: Derek Jeter - Age 34: .316 Batting Average (career), .845 OPS (career), 4.05 Range Factor, 18 Win Shares. Batting statistics down sharply in 2008.
Bay Rays: Jason Bartlett - Age 28: .276 Batting Average (career), .699 OPS (career), 4.53 Range Factor, 14 Win Shares (average last three years).

Edge: Yankees

Third Base:
Red Sox: Mike Lowell - Age 35: .279 Batting Average (career), .810 OPS (career), 2.60 Range Factor (on average), 20 Win Shares (average healthy years).
Yankees: Alex Rodriguez - Age 33: .306 Batting Average (career), .987 OPS (career), 2.59 Range Factor, 31.2 Win Shares (average last five years)
Bay Rays: Evan Longoria - Age 24: Only one year of stats: .272 Batting Average, .874 OPS, 2.72 Range Factor, 20 Win Shares (in three quarters of a season.

Edge: Yankees for this season

Left Field:
Red Sox: Jason Bay - Age 30: .282 Batting Average (career), .894 OPS (career), 1.77 Range Factor, 22.8 Win Shares (average season).
Yankees: Johnny Damon - Age 35: .289 (career), .789 OPS (career), 2.24 (at this point in his career), 23 Win Shares (average season, 25 last year).
Bay Rays: Carl Crawford - Age 27: .293 (career), .765 OPS (career), 2.42 Range Factor, 22 Win Shares (on average).

Edge: Even at this point. Crawford doesn't walk enough but is the better fielder. Bay is a lousy fielder and Damon seems to get by with what he does. Win Shares all but a draw.

Center Field:
Red Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury - Age 25: Only one year of experience: .280 Batting Average, .730 OPS, 2.58 Range Factor, 15 Win Shares.
Yankees: Melky Cabrera - Age 24: .268 Batting Average (career), .704 OPS (career, much less last year), 2.53 Range Factor, 10 Win Shares (average year).
Bay Rays: B. J. Upton - Age 24: .277 Batting Average (career), .793 OPS (career), 2.84 Range Factor, 23 Win Shares (average last two years).

Edge: Rays unless Ellsbury can improve in his second year.

Right Field:
Red Sox: J. D. Drew - Age 33: .280 Batting Average (career), .894 OPS (career), 1.92 Range Factor, 17.2 Win Shares (average).
Yankees: Xavier Nady - Age 30: .280 Batting Average (career), .792 OPS (career), 2.5 Range Factor (average), 11 Win Shares (average).
Bay Rays: Matt Joyce ? - Age 25: Not enough data to quantify. Had an .831 OPS with some action in 2008 with a 2.18 Range Factor.

Edge: Red Sox

Designated Hitter:
Red Sox: David Ortiz - .287 Batting Average (career), .936 OPS (career), 26 Win Shares (on average. All stats were down last year.
Yankees: Hideki Matsui - Age 35: .295 Batting Average (career), .849 OPS (career), 18.75 Win Shares (Batting only counted).
Bay Rays: Pat Burrell - Age 32: .257 Batting Average (career), .852 OPS (career), 17.3 Win Shares (average batting only).

Edge: Red Sox if Ortiz has a career average year.

Starting Rotation:
Red Sox: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Dice K, Brad Penny, Tim Wakefield, Jon Smoltz
Yankees: C. C. Sabathia, A. J. Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain
Bay Rays: Shields, Garza, Sonnastin, Kazmir, Niemann?

Edge: Looks like a Yankees/Red Sox draw

Closer:
Red Sox: Jonathan Papelbon: 13 Win Shares last year.
Yankees: Mariano Rivera: 17 Win Shares last year.
Bay Rays: Dan Wheeler 13 Saves last year.

Edge: Looks like a Yankees/Red Sox draw

Rest of the relief:
Red Sox: Very good if all play to experience.
Yankees: Decent if all play to experience.
Bay Rays: Depends on role Price plays. Were very good last year.

Edge: Looks like a Red Sox/Bay Rays draw.

Final Tally: Bay Rays have the edge in two categories and tie in two others. Red Sox have the edge in three categories and tie in three others. Yankees have the edge in three categories and tie in three others.

Final Call: Too close to call. It's still up for grabs. But the Rays look like a third place club after analysis.