MLB Game Picks - End of regular season report

I took a little trip through the posts of time to see how my game picking skills compared this year to the prior years. With a 9-6 finish yesterday,  the regular season is over. I will continue picking the post season games starting tomorrow with the wild card games. But for now, I am reflecting on the regular season and what blows me away is that I don't seem to get better at this through the years.

Yesterday completed six years of making these picks every day. I'm not sure why I do it, to be honest with you. It takes a commitment to spend 800 to 1,000 words a day to make it happen when I could be writing about other things. Often times, the picks post is the only thing I have time for in the morning before I go to work.

But I have been doing it so long that I don't know how to stop. At least it gives me a means to write every day about baseball and keeps me strong on how well each season progresses, what players do well and who the new players are. In terms of baseball knowledge, it keeps me sharp.

Anyway, like I was saying, I don't seem to get any better as the years go by. Last year featured slightly better overall numbers than this year. But this year was slightly better than two years ago. But the numbers are remarkably consistent from year to year. They will never be as accurate as those computer spit-outs that give the odds every day.

If I wanted to be a computer, I could have a 70% success rate. But where is the fun in that? Here are my numbers:

• September: 235-155 = .603
• Games of the Day: 103-68 = .602
• Season: 1365-1089 = .556

They are what they are. What I do appreciate is those of you who stop by every day to see me fumble through this. Your faithfulness in coming is much appreciated. I will miss the daily grind of it with only a couple of playoff games to think about for the next few weeks.

And I will miss rooting for my Game Picks favorites like Sonny Gray, Corey Kluber, Clayton Kershaw, Henderson Alvarez and a few others. Maybe I'll get a little more sleep or a second cup of coffee in each morning. Or maybe yet, I can write some actual meaningful baseball stuff instead of this stuff every day. Either way, thanks for your patronage and stay tuned during each day of the post season as we wrap this baby up.

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: September 23, 2014

Considering I had to absorb the completion of a loss from the suspended game that started back on August 31, an 8-4 day isn't too bad. The Game of the Day feature fell for the second straight day as the Tigers lost to the White Sox. But otherwise, it was a pretty good day. Adam Wainwright won his 20th. Derek Jeter drove in three runs. Derek Holland continued his very good run and Josh Collmenter continued his fine season. Things went pretty well all said and done.

I never saw the Blue Jays jumping all over James Paxton like they did. Nor did I see the Padres pitching a shutout. The Rockies had ten hits and left ten base runners. They were 0-8 with runners in scoring position.

Tuesday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Orioles: I really like Buster Olney, but his screed the other day about Derek Jeter costing the Yankees a trip to the playoffs is just a bunch of B.S. and a bold-faced effort for him to stay relevant and hip among today's statistical writers. An Orioles writer wrote the same thing yesterday. Get a new narrative guys. There were a lot of things that went wrong for the Yankees. This really riles me up. Five more days and they are going to have to find something else to write about. Brandon McCarthy over Ubaldo Jimenez.
• The Royals over the Indians: I cannot predict the Royals worth anything. Nor can I predict how well Danny Salazar will pitch. He is at home, so you would think he would be better. Then it will depend on how well Yordano Ventura pitches. Oy.
• The Mariners over the Blue Jays: This start here will go a long way in helping me decide between Felix Hernandez and Kluber for the AL CYA. They are so close. Can King Felix close the deal with a wild card at stake? Or will R.A. Dickey dance his knuckler to a Jays win?
• The Tigers over the White Sox: David Price has been disappointing for the Tigers. He needs to get it together before the playoffs start. He should beat the White Sox. Meanwhile, Scott Carroll will probably not have a fun night.
• The Reds over the Brewers: Mike Fiers bounced back nicely from the emotional turmoil of hitting Giancarlo Stanton. He was great his last time out. The problem is that he faces Johnny Cueto tonight and Cueto is one of the best.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: Henderson Alvarez and Cole Hamels have both had very good seasons. The Phillies would love to climb out of last place at the Marlins' expense. Two things make me choose the Fish. First, they hit better against lefties and second, Alvarez is mighty tough to beat at home.
• The Pirates over the Braves: The Pirates hope to kick a dog when it's down. And the Braves have certainly been dogs. Alex Wood is a good pitcher. If he is himself, Gerrit Cole is better.
• The Rays over the Red Sox: Clay Buchholz has had some glitzy starts, but they are few and far between a lot of other crap. Alex Cobb is usually terrific but has had issues against Boston. The game could go either way.
• The Rangers over the Astros: The Rangers' hot streak at the end of this season is ruining their draft position. That might be a problem with management, but the players seem to like to play for this interim manager. Nick Martinez over Brett Oberholtzer.
• The Cubs over the Cardinals: The Cards are inching toward the division title and have played pretty well. Shelby Miller has come back in the second half to be much better. But I'm going with Kyle Hendricks in this game. Love the guy.
• The Diamondbacks over the Twins: Andrew Chafin is having fun in the Big Leagues. I still worry about his control. But so far, so good. He being a lefty makes it harder for the Twins who struggle against them. Kyle Gibson is more guile than skill.
• The Athletics over the Angels: This is the hard thing about teams that have clinched playing teams still in contention for the wild card. And it is kind of unfair. Sonny Gray has not been very good lately, but he has to be better than Wade LeBlanc. I mean, seriously...
• The Padres over the Rockies: Jorge De La Rosa is the Rockies' best pitcher and he should enjoy pitching at Petco. The only problem for him and the Rockies is that Robbie Erlin has been very good at home.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: This is a very big-time match-up. Madison Bumgarner is one of the best and Zack Greinke is nothing to sneeze at. The Dodgers need to put the Giants away. The Giants are very good and not being put away. Wow.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Nationals over the Mets: Good old Bartolo Colon will pour in fastballs all night and the Nats are a great fastball hitting team. The Nats have been sleepy since they clinched but I think they will have a big offensive game here and Tanner Roark will pitch five or six good innings.

Yesterday: 8-4, September: 180-123, Games of the Day: 100-65 (-2), Season: 1310-1057

MLB Game Picks - Monday: September 1, 2014

The last day of August was not looking very good after five games. With losses by the Yankees, the Phillies and the Rays, the picks were sitting at 1-4. But then I ran the table and finished at 10-4. To be honest, if the game had been allowed to finish (suspended), I would have been wrong to finish at 10-5, but we won't know the final outcome until September 22 when the game is completed. That's what you get putting on a night game on a Sunday, a holiday weekend Sunday to boot.

I don't think I've ever had a day when the picks went from 1-4 to 10-4. That's strange. My final record for August was a little over 56% which is close to my usual. It's funny that after all the years I've been doing this, I don't really improve. I am not an odds maker and do not do computer analysis to make these picks. Why do I do this every day anyway? I really have no idea anymore. It's like an obsession or something. Or it's like riding a horse I am used to and it's just easy to ride the same one every day.

Happy Labor Day! There are twelve games on the schedule and two of them are at night. Shame on them for having night games on a holiday or no games at all!  Today's picks:

• The Rays over the Red Sox: This series has gone back and forth, so who knows. I can't remember the last time Rubby De La Rosa pitched a good game. And The Emoticon, Drew Smyly, has pitched very well for the Rays.
• The Marlins over the Mets: This is a very tough call. Zack Wheeler has been great since the third month of the season. But Henderson Alvarez at home is pretty unbeatable. I'll go with Miami.
• The Braves over the Phillies: I hate to pick against Cole Hamels, but again, the home team is a better pick with Julio Teheran overpowering the older Phillies batters.
• The Orioles over the Twins: Phil Hughes has had a great season. There is no disputing the fact. But I do not like his match-up against the Orioles and feel like he will give up two or three homers. He won't walk anyone. Kevin Gausman has been terrific too and that makes the Twins' task harder.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Man, all the home team picks. Scary. Despite all the hyperventilating by Cardinal fans and sportswriters, here the Cards are tied for the division lead. Lance Lynn has been mostly really good and Gerrit Cole is to be feared as well.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: Yay! A road team pick! Jacob Turner is a work in progress for the Cubs and I believe they will be ultimately successful on putting him back on the right road. But for now, he remains awful messy. Jimmy Nelson hasn't won in his last four starts, so that makes the pick more difficult.
• The Tigers over the Indians: This is a really tough call. David Price only won one of his five starts for the Tigers in August. But his peripherals are still outstanding with them. A little bad luck has been involved. Corey Kluber has been so good all season, but his control has been more of a problem his last three starts. This could go either way.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: I don't know if the A's manager calling his team pathetic will help, but anyway, Jason Hammel over Chris Young.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: I like Tyson Ross and his season has been a lot better than his .500 record. He should beat the D-backs who feature Trevor Cahill on the mound today.
• The Giants over the Rockies: MLB.com does not have the pitching match-ups and just lists TBO. Yahoo.com is reporting that it will be Tim Hudson versus Franklin Morales. Morales has pitched well, but never more than five innings. Hudson has struggled a bit on the road and even more so in day games. But the Giants are very hot right now.
• The Nationals over the Dodgers: I did take a quick peek at the odds on this one and the odds makers are favoring the Dodgers big time. But I don't agree, which is why I guess I'm not famous. Gio Gonzalez presents problems for the Dodgers' lineup and the Nats bats can get to Roberto Hernandez.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Royals over the Rangers: The Royals had a tough weekend against Cleveland but now face an easier team, at least on paper. I can't make fun of Colby Lewis anymore because he has pitched well. The pick rests completely on what kind of game Yordano Ventura has.

Yesterday: 10-4, August final: 237-185, Games of the Day: 84-59 (+1), Season: 1130-934

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: August 16, 2014

Even though yesterday finished over .500 (barely), it was a disappointment after the previous three days. In those previous three days, the picks had gone 29-10 including 9-1 on Thursday. That kind of success made me happy. Yesterday did not.

And you know what? It was those danged extra-inning games that continue to drive me crazy. There were three of them yesterday and all three went against the pick. That's stupid and yet so typical. I should have kept track of this and maybe next year (God willing) I will.

Saturday's picks:

• The Giants over the Phillies: This was one of the extra-inning games and the real problem with this pick is that the Phillies are back to facing a right-handed pitcher in Tim Hudson. They are much better in those situations. But the Giants at home with Kyle Kendrick going for the Phillies is too attractive not to take.
• The Rays over the Yankees: One team is going, "Yay! We're at .500!" While the other one is saying, "Oh no! We are almost back at .500!" Two teams going in opposite directions with the Yankees sinking fast should produce another Rays win. The Emoticon, Drew Smyly, will now become a great pitcher in Tampa while Shane Greene will be treated somewhat rudely at the Trop.
• The Indians over the Orioles: There are so many competing forces going on here. The Orioles have been indestructible the last month while the Indians have one of the best home records in baseball. Carlos Carrasco was great his last time out but only pitched five innings. Ubaldo Jimenez has been awful all year but goes back to Cleveland where he had success. There is too much going on here!
• The Nationals over the Pirates: This is a tale of two lefties. Gio Gonzalez has lost his last four starts and five of his last six (the other was a no-decision). He is due for a win, but I worry about his health. Jeff Locke seems to pitch and never get decisions. He is only 4-3 after thirteen starts. Locke has been prone to the long ball this year and the Nats might hit a couple.
• The Mariners over the Tigers: This is a great pitching match-up and again, either ace can win depending on how their day goes. Felix Hernandez is 9-2 lifetime against the Tigers and 5-1 lifetime at Comerica. That's hard to ignore. So I give him the edge over David Price.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: This pick was wrong yesterday but I am going back to it because Henderson Alvarez is pretty hard to beat at home. Plus, Wade Miley might run into Giancarlos Stanton's bat once or twice.
• The Mets over the Cubs: I am uncomfortable looking over the picks so far that I have so many home teams winning. I do take the location of the game into account, but mostly I go with match-ups and let the pick fall where it is. So, I'll keep going. Jon Niese makes me much more confident than Dan Straily. Simple.
• The Red Sox over the Astros: The Astros win yesterday (yes, in extra innings) surprised me. And it would surprise me if they win again today. While Rubby De La Rosa is inconsistent, at least he is capable of wow. I can't say that with Brad Peacock.
• The Royals over the Twins: Phil Hughes has won twelve games. He has walked only fifteen batters in 150+ innings and his home run rate is way down. So why am I picking against him? The Royals are too much on a roll and if Yordano Ventura has a good game, the Royals will find a way to win.
• The Athletics over the Braves: I'm starting to think that the A's should have left their team alone at the trade deadline. But I am still a fan of Sonny Gray. The only thing that can set this pick aside is if Julio Teheran can somehow regain his fine form of a year ago.
• The White Sox over the Blue Jays: Mark Buehrle couldn't get Mo'Ne Davis out at this point. He's been getting pounded. John Danks is not much more of a solid pick, but that's how I have it today.
• The Padres over the Cardinals: Jesse Hahn Chaka Hahn is my guy. He has had a little come down to earth in his last two starts, but I like him better than this year's version of Shelby Miller.
• The Angels over the Rangers: All Matt Shoemaker does is win. I'm still not quite sure how he does it. But he does. Colby Lewis has been better of late, but he is still a hit machine.
• The Rockies over the Reds: The Reds have had some success turning around pitchers with really bad track records. I wrote about one yesterday in Zach Duke. Dylan Axelrod had gotten worse and worse with more MLB exposure. But since he joined the Reds organization, his stats look better. But then he gets to make his first MLB start of 2014 at Coors Field. That's cruel! Jordan Lyles with the win.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Clayton Kershaw. Do I need to say more? Okay, how about Clayton Kershaw at home? That's enough. Yovani Gallardo has been good lately though.

Yesterday: 8-7, August: 117-88, Games of the Day: 73-54 (+4), Season: 1011-835

MLB Game Picks - Friday: June 20, 2014

I did not have a good day of game picking yesterday, but it was a fun night of baseball. Two rookies made their MLB pitching debuts, old friend, Nick Swisher, hit a walk-off grand slam (even if it killed that pick) and the mysterious reclamation of Scott Kazmir continued.

The only sad thing of the day was what happened to Gavin Floyd. What a horrible accident for his career, which might now be over. At least his last game was brilliant and something to put an exclamation mark on his career.

I am heading to Portland, Maine today so I can fly out to Florida tomorrow. So the next couple of days of picks could be fluff free and to the point! Friday's picks:

• The Pirates over the Cubs: How many times already this season have I had to pick between Charlie Morton and Edwin Jackson? It's a horrible choice and baseball, I don't appreciate it.
• The Nationals over the Braves: The Nats have the same problem with the Braves that the Blue Jays have in Yankee Stadium. Sooner or later, you have to be able to beat your rival at least once in a while. With Stephen Strasburg on the mound, there is no excuse. Of course, Mike Minor will try to keep the Nats scuffling against his team.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Ubaldo Jimenez is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Which one will the Yankees get tonight? Hiroki Kuroda must keep the Orioles in the park, sometimes hard to do with those O's bangers.
• The Indians over the Tigers: Wasn't that weird yesterday when they interviewed Joe Nathan after yesterday's game and it was projected all over the stadium? That was weird and it was just one win. One win won't fix the Tigers' problems. Corey Kluber over Rick Porcello.
• The Rays over the Astros: David Price has given up a lot of home runs. The Astros are a home run or nothing ball club. So which will happen? I have to go with Price to dominate and for the Rays to scratch a few off of Jarred Cosart.
• The Marlins over the Mets: This game is a toss up. The Marlins' offense has dried up recently and the Mets never had one. Daisuke Matsuzaka has been pitching well, but is that a mirage? Henderson Alvarez has done great at home, but not last time. Questions abound...
• The White Sox over the Twins: Hector Noesi has surprised. It's not that he has been great. What is surprising is that he has not been awful. He could pitch decently enough to win over the Twins and the White Sox' power could derail Ricky Nolasco.
• The Royals over the Mariners: I am still hearing reports that Hisashi Iwakuma is having problems with his back. That makes me too nervous to pick him. Instead I'll go with Big Game James Shields with the Royals staying hot.
• The Cardinals over the Phillies: It's hard to argue with Jaime Garcia's two great road starts and I always like lefties against the Phillies. A.J. Burnett can be had, especially early in the game.
• The Rockies over the Brewers: This game could be high scoring. Or Christian Bergman can have a third straight good start and win. Either way, Marco Estrada at Coors does not make me comfortable.
• The Diamondbacks over the Giants: Except for two bad starts against the Dodgers, Josh Collmenter has pitched well. Tim Lincecum has pitched well twice in a row. This is a toss-up for me. So I'm going with the home team.
• The Athletics over the Red Sox: The A's picked up Brad Mills for a dollar. So naturally, they will make hamburger look like filet mignon. It's the A's! They are the smartest cats around. It will help that the A's face Felix Doubront who has been awful this season.
• The Angels over the Rangers: Garrett Richards is a stud. And Joe Saunders is...well...Joe Saunders. I have picked way too many home teams today. Scary.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: See? I had to pick a road win in here somewhere. So let it be Dan Haren handling the Padres while the Dodgers score four runs at least off of Ian Kennedy.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Reds over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are slumping and have lost nine of their last twelve. They then send Liam Hendriks out there to face the Reds in their park. Ugh. The Blue Jays lose a bat in the NL park and Mat Latos was great in his first start back from the DL.

Yesterday: 5-7, June: 142-118, Games of the Day: 39-37, Season: 595-499

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: June 8, 2014

Yesterday was disappointing. The picks were 6-2 at one point and things were looking pretty good. Chris Sale was coming up as was Sonny Gray. Those are usually two locks. But Mike Trout took care of Sale and Gray was not on at all and I went 1-6 the rest of the way. Ouch.  And worse yet, the Game of the Day, after climbing back from the depths with four straight, went wrong with an extra inning loss. In fact, there were three extra inning games and they all settled out against the picks.

Sunday's picks:

• The Blue Jays over the Cardinals: Even in his better days, Jaime Garcia wasn't very good on the road and his being a lefty doesn't hurt the Blue Jays with their power right-handed bats. Drew Hutchison has to throw well though or this pick will again be wrong.
• The Reds over the Phillies: The Phillies game yesterday was typical for them this season. Rollins hit a homer, Howard had a good game at the plate, and they still lost. Homer Bailey drives me crazy, but he is the pick over David Buchanan.
• The Pirates over the Brewers: Jeff Locke had a pretty good season a year ago. So I was somewhat confused over why he was languishing in the minors all season. He hasn't done that well there this season, but I'm thinking he steps it up back in the Majors. Yovani Gallardo hasn't looked good his last two starts.
• The Athletics over the Orioles: This pick was wrong yesterday, but I just don't trust Ubaldo Jimenez. I do trust Scott Kazmir though.
• The Mariners over the Rays: This game feels like a setup. I thought sure that Cobb would be good yesterday, but he was terrible. I think Chris Archer will be good today, but he faces Felix Hernandez. The Rays have been so bad, but I bet they beat King Felix just to mess around with my head.
• The Astros over the Twins: Samuel Deduno hasn't been as bad a starter the last five outings as I thought he was. But I have kind of a man-crush on Collin McHugh and George Springer. Deduno has only given up two homers in 55+ innings, which is pretty impressive.
• The Yankees over the Royals: Yeah, James Shields is pitching for the Royals and he is supposedly their ace and everything. But the Yankees have always dealt pretty well with him. Hiroki Kuroda likes pitching during the day and always does better when the sun is shining.
• The Marlins over the Cubs: It's just too hard to pick against Henderson Alvarez right now. He is really pitching well. Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta can have a good day, but the odds are more against it.
• The Rangers over the Indians: I can tell my confidence is not strong. I never know what Justin Masterson is going to show up and every time I pick against Joe Saunders (which is always the right call), he makes me look stupid.
• The Angels over the White Sox: C.J. Wilson is really overlooked for how solid a starter he has been. I think he gets discounted because he always faltered in the post season. he should flourish at home and Jose Quintana will yield a few runs.
• The Giants over the Mets: I'd like to think that Zack Wheeler made a positive step in his last start. That would be good for him because of his talent. But the Giants always win these days and it won't matter that Tim Lincecum is starting. He'll get by.
• The Diamondbacks over the Braves: Chase Anderson has been a good luck talisman for the Diamondbacks thus far. And when was the last time that Aaron Harang won a ballgame? April?
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and he has struck out nine batters in four of his last five starts. But I am awfully worried about him pitching at Coors. Jorge De La Rosa can be pretty good too.
• The Tigers over the Red Sox: John Lackey has pitched really well his last three games. But the Tigers have gotten well this weekend at the expense of the Red Sox whose woes continue. Besides, Anibal Sanchez is a pretty good pitcher himself.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Nationals over the Padres: Jordan Zimmermann has come on really strong lately and Eric Stults is not having a good season. I miss Bryce Harper.

Yesterday: 7-8, June: 50-44, Games of the Day: 31-33, Season: 506-421