MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: September 24, 2013

Monday was a good day with only three incorrect picks. The first one was a blanking of the Phillies by Nathan Eovaldi of the Marlins along with two relievers. Roy Halladay, who I picked to win, left the game early with nothing left in his arm. Which is a shame. The other two I had talked about yesterday. Two teams who had clinched, the Braves and the Tigers, lost. And I mentioned how difficult it was to pick those kinds of games. That will occur all week and the question is how sharp these clinched teams play the last lame duck part of the season.

But 9-3 is 9-3. The Rays completed their burying of the Orioles and if that was not bad enough, Manny Machado suffered a horrendous injury. There is nothing baseball fans want to see less than a young superstar in the making suffer what could be a career altering injury.

Before I get to the picks, I just wanted to give a special shout out to a very special person on this very special day.

Tuesday's picks:

• The Rays over the Yankees: The Rays have everything going for them and the Yankees have nothing going for them. Hiroki Kuroda has hit a wall down the stretch and Matt Moore just wins and wins.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: The Orioles have to be devastated by what occurred to Machado yesterday and by totally ralphing for the month of September. But Chris Tillman should be celebrated for the great season he has had. He will beat Todd Redmond.
• The Brewers over the Braves: Even if Freddy Garcia has a good outing, which is stretching the imagination, young Tyler Thornburg has made quite the impression so far in his very early MLB career.
• The Reds over the Mets: Jonathon Niese is not a pushover by any means and this pick is not made without some thought. But the Reds still have a chance for the division as they are only two out with six to play. Mike Leake has been solid all season.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: This is not a ringing endorsement for Zach Minor. He is sort of a journeyman pitcher. And his success will depend on the lousy offense of the Phillies scoring off of Henderson Alvarez. But this feels like a Phillies win.
• The Rangers over the Astros: The interesting question is not whether the Rangers will win, but if the Astros will win another game this season. Brad Peacock has held his own this season, but Yu Darvish needs to give the Rangers a chance for a miracle. They are the only team with a slight chance to catch the Indians for Wild Card #2.
• The Pirates over the Cubs: The Pirates cannot let up as they are two games behind the Cardinals and the top spot is infinitely better than heading to a play-in game. Gerrit Cole had a bad start his last time out, but otherwise has been great. Chris Rusin has been nothing to write home about.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Here we go again with a team that does not have to worry going against a team that is just playing out the string. Doug Fister goes against Scott Diamond, who was good his last time out.
• The Nationals over the Cardinals: I will be sorry to see Davey Johnson go. He was a great manager during his career. And he is a good guy. This pick is for the Nats because Gio Gonzalez is a lefty and a good lefty and the Cards have had trouble with that all year. Michael Wacha goes for the Cards and their best chance is for Wacha to match Gio and let it become a bullpen game.
• The Red Sox over the Rockies: The Red Sox have nothing to lose and will probably have John Lackey just go five or six innings. They should enjoy Coors Field and I expect a high score as they should be all over Tyler Chatwood.
• The Athletics over the Angels: The A's pushed back A.J. Griffin to today and still won yesterday. Griffin will not go deep into the game, but should win as the A's do enough damage against Jason Vargas.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: The Padres are finishing the season on kind of a high note. But so is Wade Miley and he should enjoy Petco. Tyson Ross pitched half his games in the best pitching park in baseball and still went 3-8.
• The Mariners over the Royals: The Royals have had a very good season and they have been thrilling to watch in September. But they come up short for the post season and today will be the final nail. James Paxton has been terrific for the M's and looks like the real deal. Plus, he is a lefty. Bruce Chen is not nearly as reliable on the road as he is at home.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: The Giants' offense has been ineffective (to put it mildly) and should not be much improved facing Hyun-jin Ryu. Matt Cain has not been a lockdown pitcher like in the past.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Indians over the White Sox: Ubaldo Jimenez has been one of the best pitchers of the second half and the Indians are on a mission. Hector Santiago throws from the left side, which does not bother the Indians. Nick Swisher is a better hitter from the right side, for example.

Yesterday: 9-3

Week: 17-11

Month: 182-139

Season: 1324-1034

Games of the Day: 100-70

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: September 18, 2013

Although I had a decent picking day and am having a good picking week, a failure milestone was reached yesterday. I went past a thousand incorrect picks for the season yesterday. While I know from four years of experience that such a failure rate will occur, it is one of those numbers that brings reality home. I have been wrong a thousand times this season. I am pretty sure that this is the earliest I have reached the mark as this has been a difficult season.

It is hard to believe that there are only eleven days left in the season. Wednesday's picks:

• The White Sox over the Twins: The battle of bad teams continues and the White Sox have won the first two games of the series. A sweep is in sight in this getaway day game. John Danks should finally get a win and Scott Diamond has the bullpen lose it late.
• The Athletics over the Angels: A.J. Griffin at home is a really solid pick. Jason Vargas is capable of putting up a good game, especially in a big ballpark like the Coliseum. I expect low scoring and a tight game.
• The Braves over the Nationals: The Nats have won nine out of ten and are surging perhaps a bit too late to reach the Reds. They are still four and a half games out. While Ross Ohlendorf has been amazing, I think Alex Wood will be better.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: This is a battle of fringe Major League pitchers. Zach Minor has had several turns in the Majors but has never been able to stick. He has pitched thirteen times in relief for Philly, but this is his first start. Nathan Eovaldi has had a good game here and there with a bunch of mediocrity thrown in.
• The Pirates over the Padres: The Padres have beaten the Pirates two days in a row with some nice pitching. Either that or the Pirates bats have gone in a slump. The good news for the Pirates is that Tyson Ross is not nearly as good as the first two pitchers they faced in this series. Charlie Morton with the win.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Have you ever watched Survivor and one of the challenges is trying to stack these wooden card pieces to a certain height? That reminds me of the Yankees season. The Yankees come to the next to last week with their cards stacked wobbly near the top only to all come crashing down before reaching the end.  J.A. Happ over Phil Hughes.
• The Tigers over the Mariners: Hisashi Iwakuma has had a very nice season. And he should do well in the Tigers' big ballpark. So the question remains of what Justin Verlander shows up. He looked much more dominant his last outing. I have to go with Verlander at the end of the season and the Tigers' lineup.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: I was wrong here yesterday and this pick is no guaranteed one either. Wei-Yin Chen has faltered this season after a strong debut season a year ago. I have to believe that he is not really healthy. Jake Peavy needs to prove his case for the post season. In my mind, he has not done that yet. I am still rooting for Chris Davis though.
• The Rangers over the Rays: This is one of those reverse logic picks. Derek Holland has not pitched well this season and even worse of late. So naturally, he is screaming for me to pick against him. But then he shuts down the Rays and the Rangers score a few off of Chris Archer and foul it all up. I got you.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: This is a battle for youngsters trying to make a mark in the Big Leagues. Tyler Thornburg has made a better impression so far than Chris Rusin has. So that is my pick.
• The Astros over the Athletics: This is my upset special of the day. Brad Peacock has won his last two starts and four of his last six decisions. He has elevated his K-rate while lowering his walk rate. Combine those facts with the A's starting journeyman, Greg Reynolds, and you have a recipe for an upset.
• The Royals over the Indians: These two teams beating each other up what I see. They have taken turns winning this series. Bruce Chen has a winning percentage at home over the years over .600 and that is too convincing for me to not pick him over Danny Salazar.
• The Cardinals over the Rockies: Adam Wainwright did not pitch well the last time he was at Coors Field. He lives on the curveball and it will not curve as much in that park at that altitude. But the Cardinals are good enough to win a slugfest and I am still not convinced by Tyler Chatwood.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: A win here would clinch the division for the Dodgers. But that day will be postponed a day as Brandon McCarthy has a good game and the random sighting of Stephen Fife doesn't work this time.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Giants over the Mets: The Giants have had their way this series and I expect it to continue tonight. Aaron Harang has Citi Field to help him with dinger-control. But the Giants have Matt Cain on the mound and I think that trumps it.

Yesterday: 10-6

Week: 28-14

Month: 131-106

Season: 1273-1001

Games of the Day: 97-67

MLB Game Pick - Monday: September 2, 2013

September started off on a really bad foot yesterday as only six out of fifteen picks were correct. Miami blanked the Braves. The Yankees' bullpen, long their strength this season, punted against the Orioles. The Diamondbacks got another bad performance from Patrick Corbin and lost. The Indians hit a grand slam in the ninth to break a nothing, nothing game. I should have gone with Brett Oberholtzer. It was just a bad day all around.

After laboring so badly yesterday, perhaps the Labor Day picks will be better. And here they are:

• The Yankees over the White Sox: I am probably out of my mind for picking a game where Phil Hughes is starting. I am probably not sane to think he can win. But the White Sox are a bad club and the kind of club the Yankees have to beat to keep their slimmest of hopes alive. Jose Quintana goes for the White Sox.
• The Reds over the Cardinals: This is a good one. The battle of two aces as Mat Latos goes against Adam Wainwright. I like Latos' chances of holding the Cards down better at home. But this game could go either way depending on which pitcher is the hottest.
• The Red Sox over the Tigers: In what could be a playoff preview, John Lackey takes on the Tigers with an injured Miguel Cabrera. Doug Fister could throw a good game against the Red Sox, but it is not likely. My guess is that the Red Sox jump on him early.
• The Astros over the Twins: I have to admit to not having any idea what to do with this game. Andrew Albers has shown some good games, but some really bad ones too. The same can be said for Paul Clemens. Neither blows people away and thus, anything can happen. Ugh.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: Tyler Thornburg has pitched well in each of this three starts. I think he can shut down the Pirates. They also have the kind of punch and Judy hitters than can be patient with Charlie Morton. Hey, it is possible.
• The Royals over the Mariners: Felix Hernandez is not a pitcher to pick against very often. And yet, his games are not often a lock for his team to win. He could be matched today by Danny Duffy, who has been pitching extremely well. And then after the two starters cancel each other out, the Royals win late in the game.
• The Cubs over the Marlins: For the last month and a half, all of Travis Wood's starts have come against the aces of his opponent team. Today, he gets a break and squares up against Henderson Alvarez. I think he wins this one.
• The Giants over the Padres: This is another game I do not know what to do with. On the Giants' side is Barry Zito, who has been sort of awful all season and he faces Ian Kennedy who has been similarly awful. When two starters are that awful, then go with the better team. Giants.
• The Indians over the Orioles: The seven-run outburst against the Yankees' bullpen in that come from behind victory could propel the Orioles. Or it could just mask what has been a mediocre team since the All Star Break. The Indians need a big day from Justin Masterson and they need to get to Bud Norris early to get to the Orioles' bullpen.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: Derek Holland has had pretty good success in the Oakland Mausoleum Coliseum. He has a 2.87 ERA in nine appearances there. He will need a good one today for the Rangers to put away the A's. Dan Straily could throw a wrench into the pick with a great outing.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Clayton Kershaw has an ERA of 4.98 for his career in Coors Field and has given up eleven homers there, by far the most of any road ballpark. So the Dodgers need to score six runs to win. Against Chad Bettis, that is very possible.
• The Diamondbacks over the Blue Jays: There are far too many letters in this team match-up. I cannot pick the Blue Jays in a game where Esmil Rogers is the starter. He has served up homer after homer this season. At the same time, Brandon McCarthy has not been very good either. A toss up.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: Another confession. This pick has nothing to do with who should or will win but for my overwhelming desire to see Stephen Strasburg pitch well. Cole Hamels is a worthy opponent though.
• The Bay Rays over the Angels: Chris Archer is a better pitcher to me than Garrett Richards. But this pick can go either way. The Rays have really been struggling while the Angels have had a lost season. Another toss up.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Braves over the Mets: The Mets continue their Daisuke Matsuzaka experiment as the slowest of all slow pitchers tries to lull the Braves to sleep with the length of time it takes him to deliver a pitch. Paul Maholm will try to get the Braves the win.

Yesterday: 6-9

Week: 6-9

Month: 6-9

Season: 1148-904

Games of the Day: 87-61

MLB Game Picks - Monday: August 5, 2013

Yesterday was another pretty good day with ten out of fifteen correct. I guess I should have picked the Cardinals, eh? And I also guess that Ernesto Frieri is not the most popular member of the Angels right now. But, yeah, it was a good day and August has been excellent so far. I hope I can keep it up.

There are only nine games on the schedule today, but some very interesting match-ups. The red hot Tigers play the red hot Indians. And the Dodgers try to keep their winning streak alive against the slugging Cardinals despite the absence of Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig. It should be an interesting day of baseball.

Monday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Braves: This series would have been interesting if the Nationals had the kind of season we all expected. As it is, the Braves are in front by a dozen and forget about last year's collapse. They have no contenders. Stephen Strasburg, though, will have a good day against Mike Minor.
• The Indians over the Tigers: Anibal Sanchez could show up as the unhitable version and that would put a wrench in this pick. But I like Corey Kluber at home for this one.
• The Cardinals over the Dodgers: This is a big time match-up between Zack Greinke and Adam Wainwright. If Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig both miss the game, then Wainwright will not have much else to deal with. Meanwhile, Greinke has to face the Cardinals with all their guns.
• The Red Sox over the Astros: Brett Oberholtzer will present some problems for the Red Sox' lineup as he is an experienced pitcher who knows what he is doing. But the Astros cannot finish a game. Therefore, if John Lackey can keep the Astros' run total to a minimum, the Red Sox win.
• The Yankees over the White Sox: The return of Alex Rodriguez? The loss again of Derek Jeter. My, what a weird season for the Yankees this year. Andy Pettitte better have a good game because losing to Jose Quintana and the White Sox would be embarrassing.
• The Angels over the Rangers: Will Nelson Cruz be gone? Will he appeal? This is a picking day for the strong of heart. Jerome Williams figured it out last time after five bad starts in a row. Martin Perez is just okay.
• The Mariners over the Blue Jays: You have to figure that Hisashi Iwakuma will be very good at home in Seattle. He is hard to beat there. R.A. Dickey is having an up and down season. If today is one of those ups, the pick gets shot down.
• The Brewers over the Giants: This pick again is my Chad Gaudin phobia. I think the Brewers will hit him. And Tyler Thornburg has been pretty impressive in his early results. There are still too many walks, but he is pitching well.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Royals over the Twins: The Royals are having a good run lately, but still the fans are unhappy and it is hard to blame them. Another third place finish is hardly consolation over losing Wil Myers. But Jeremy Guthrie will have a good game and Kevin Correia will not.

Yesterday: 10-5

Week: 10-5

Month: 39-17

Season: 942-730

Games of the Day: 73-47