Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Game Picks - Wednesday: May 5, 2010

The trick to picking Major League Baseball games is to be able to figure out when a team, a pitcher, or a group of players is going to stop playing against their norms. For example, the Brewers are a team of sluggers that were not slugging and thus not scoring any runs. Their players (with the exception of Braun) have been struggling below their norms. Sooner or later they had to bust out of it and the trick is to anticipate when that would be. It didn't figure it would be against Clayton Kershaw, but that's exactly what happened as they scored nine runs in the second inning and exploded. The Astros are another example. Certainly they are a bad hitting team. But their norms indicate that they should average three runs a game at least. And so when Oswalt is on the mound, the picker would figure that to be enough. But the Astros didn't score three runs. They didn't score any runs. The Fan fell on the wrong side of both of those situations which is a good reason why it was such a wishy washy picking day.

The Fan has been accused in the past of simply picking games out of the hat. That couldn't be further from the truth. The Fan only picks a third of any day's games out of a hat. Each pick is considered carefully with match ups and histories those match ups have had in the past. But at least a third of the games every day are so unpredictable that luck has to factor in. So far this season, the Fan has been mostly lucky in those wacky 1/3 picks. Not complaining at all about that.

So the bottom line here is that Wednesday's picks are brought to you with 2/3 logic and acumen and 1/3 blindfolded "pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey" type guessing. It is what it is...

Editor's Note: These picks must be fraught with danger as the computer has crashed three times while trying to make them!

- The Blue Jays over the Indians: This is one of those picks that drive you crazy. Morrow has been really good lately, which is against type. Carmona was really bad last time which is against type this year, but not against last year. Doh!
- The Mets over the Reds: Niese has been a nice surprise. Cueto is never one to count on but can be occasionally brilliant. Don't think he will be here.
- The Yankees over the Orioles: Pettitte was more back to his old self his last game out, but with the Yankee bats, that's good enough.
- The Twins over the Tigers: The Twins are putting their stamp on this series without Mauer too.
- The Rangers over the Athletics: Raise your hand if you thought Feldman would be the fouth best starter on the Rangers. Yeah, the Fan couldn't raise his hand either.
- The Cubs over the Pirates: Just can't see the Cubbies losing with Lilly going and Morton on the other side.
- The Cardinals over the Phillies: Sooner or later, the Phillies are going to have to take Kendrick out of the rotation.
- The Nationals over the Braves: Atilano has been good in his two starts, Hanson was pretty shaky his last time out. It's weird. The Fan is acting like the Nationals are a real team and everything.
- The Marlins over the Giants: Zito is due for a clunker and a right-handed team like the Marlins might be the one to give it to him.
- The Red Sox over the Angels: Don't know which team the Fan roots against harder. Bad Fan...very bad. But anyway, Lackey rises up against his old team and shows they should have paid him instead of Pineiro.
- The Astros over the Diamondbacks: Just feel like Lopez is vulnerable as a starter in this one.
- The Royals over the White Sox: With a win, the Royals could hop over the White Sox in the standings. Wouldn't that be a kicker?
- The Padres over the Rockies: Have the Padres been an unbelievable story so far? Richard beats Cook.
- The Dodgers over the Brewers: Hmm..Davis versus Billingsley. Yup, this is one of those 1/3.


- The Bay Rays over the Mariners: So what if Lee is pitching for Seattle. They won't score against Garza.

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 27-13
Month: 31-24
Season: 231-150
Games of the Day: 10-9

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