Friday, June 18, 2010

With Moyer, You Never Know

Figuring out how Jamie Moyer is going to pitch on any given start is like playing the slot machine. You can only hope you end up ahead more often than behind. The thing about Moyer is that he can surprise you and pitch brilliantly and the next start throw such a stinker that you wonder why he is still in the major leagues. And this is the reality Moyer has presented the Phillies for years now. Sure, he's a great story. Us old guys love the guy. But seriously, what do you get by starting Moyer every fifth day?

Moyer has won 42 games in the last three years. His ERA+ was over 100 in one of them. He finished last year at 86. This year, even after his gem against the Yankees, he's sitting at 86. So far this year, Moyer has made 13 starts. This is how they went with innings and earned runs:

Six innings - five runs
Six innings - five runs
Six innings - no runs
Six innings - four runs
Six innings - five runs
Nine innings - zero runs
Six and a third innings - four runs
Seven innings - two runs
Five innings - four runs
Six innings - one run
Nine innings - two runs
One inning - nine runs
Eight innings - two runs

So by counting them all up, Moyer has had five quality starts, one blow out and seven mediocre (at best) starts. So yes, Moyer is a great story. He's a 47 year old guy still pitching in the major leagues. But he isn't the most reliable pitcher around. If you go by WAR, he is currently 97th out of 110 starting pitchers who qualify.

But then again, he IS the oldest guy who has ever beaten the Yankees. Somewhere, Phil Neikro is smiling.

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