MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: September 17, 2014

Last night was fun to watch for a lot of Beltway fans as the Nationals and Orioles clinched their divisions. I feel happy for the fans of those teams as they get to celebrate (for now) the accomplishments of the teams. For others seeking the wild card, last night was a problem as several of them lost and that became a problem for me as I did not have a good night of picking at all.

I should have picked Jake Arrieta. Wow, what a game he had. I shouldn't have picked the Royals when the best they could do was start Liam Hendriks. But KC's vaunted bullpen let them down too. Speaking of bullpens, Trevor Rosenthal blew his sixth save and caused the Cards - Brewers game to go twelve innings and the Brewers won. And I lost. Heh.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Rockies over the Dodgers: Carlos Frias? Seriously, Dodgers? The poor guy hasn't started since the minors and has to pitch at Coors Field. Nice. Jorge De La Rosa is my pick by default.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: While the Dodgers are frittering around, they have kept the hopes alive for the Giants. The D-backs start Andrew Chafin, their 2011 first round draft pick. He was pretty good in his first start. I worry about his control in the long run. Madison Bumgarner becomes the difference here.
• The Pirates over the Red Sox: Playing in an NL park hurts the Red Sox more than anyone else in the AL. Besides, the Pirates are playing for a goal and the Red Sox are just playing. Francisco Liriano over Clay Buchholz.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: This will be the norm for the Orioles for the rest of the way with starters going five innings or so and Spring Training like lineups. I still have them beating J.A. Happ who has turned to mush. Bud Norris starts.
• The Mets over the Marlins: The Mets have pretty much owned Henderson Alvarez in his last two starts against them. Besides, Dillon Gee is a reliable starter for the Mets who are playing well despite their circumstances.
• The Rays over the Yankees: The Yankees cannot beat Alex Cobb and they cannot hit to save themselves. Brandon McCarthy has been a nice addition for the Yankees but like all Yankee pitchers this year, he'll have to be perfect. I hope there are no head huntings in this one.
• The Braves over the Nationals: The Braves cannot hit either but have a chance at least against Blake Treinen. Alex Wood is good, which rhymes, and the Nationals might be hung over.
• The White Sox over the Royals: Adam Eaton can be a force when he is healthy. Jose Abreu has been too quiet. But most importantly, Chris Sale is pitching. Yordano Ventura will try to keep up.
• The Indians over the Astros: Carlos Carrasco has had a really nice season that nobody knows about. Brett Oberholtzer, again, is a hero for taking the ball week after week and doing his best with little support.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Weird game last night. Joe Nathan blew it again and then blamed it on his outfielder. Nice. Hopefully for the Tigers, David Price will go deep and the Tigers will score often on Kyle Gibson.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: These are games an ace is supposed to win. Adam Wainwright needs to win. I am worried about how Mike Fiers reacts in his first start since breaking Giancarlo Stanton's face.
• The Mariners over the Angels: I just love James Paxton. The kid is amazing. Of course, sooner or later, picking him is not going to work out. This might be the night as the Angels are mighty good. C.J. Wilson starts for the Angels.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: Derek Holland has been amazing since returning to the Rangers. Three starts, seven innings in each start, 21 innings, two runs, no walks. Until he falters, I have to ride him. Jeff Samardzija goes for the A's.
• The Phillies over the Padres: This pick is based solely on the fact Cole Hamels is pitching. It doesn't help that Eric Stults is going for his 17th loss.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Cubs over the Reds: I like Kyle Hendricks a lot better than I like Daniel Corcino. In this stage of their respective careers, Hendricks is much more polished and has better command.

Yesterday: 6-9, Sept.: 127-94, Games of the Day: 96-63 (+4), Season: 1257-1028

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: July 19, 2014

Did you soak it in last night when baseball finally got back to our living rooms or at the ballpark? I know I did. And it was a fairly good day. Heck, any day of a baseball season where I am in the black is a good day. I needed a walk-off by Josh Donaldson and a bullpen meltdown by the Orioles, but I'll take it.

That's the one problem with doing this and also by playing fantasy baseball: You end up happy when you know the heartbreak the fans for those teams are feeling. Oh well, it goes with the job description I suppose.

Saturday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Reds: Brandon McCarthy will make his presence felt and the Yankees will score enough on Alfredo Simon to make it work out. Simon is due for a loss and the Yankees are going to start playing better at home.
• The Blue Jays over the Rangers: The Rangers probably got the only win they will get this series. It is not safe for children when Colby Lewis pitches and Marcus Stroman will take care of what little offense the Rangers have.
• The Indians over the Tigers: These two teams are playing two games today. In the first game, the Tigers will give Drew VerHagen his MLB debut. His MiLB numbers are not overpowering and he is not considered a top prospect. So Corey Kluber is the pick.
• The Dodgers over the Cardinals: Joe Kelly wasn't great his first game back from the DL. I am a little worried about Zack Greinke getting Cardinals out, but his pitch count should stay in control since the Cards are a bit swing-happy.
• The Pirates over the Rockies: While I am not a big fan of Charlie Morton, I am going to pick him because nothing good ever happens when Brett Anderson pitches.
• The Nationals over the Brewers: Strasburg got me again last night. But Tanner Roark has been good to me this season. So I am going with him over Matt Garza. The Brewers look better after the break. They were a bit moribund before it.
• The Astros over the White Sox: Dallas Keuchel has given up at least four runs in his last four starts. But being lefty, he does pose a problem for Dunn and Adam Eaton. I think the Astros' young hitters will star in this game against Hector Noesi.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: The Red Sox will force Danny Duffy's pitch count up early and then feast on the middle relievers. Rubby De La Rosa needs to have a good game or this pick blows up. Until the Royals get a new manager, I will always find it hard to pick them.
• The Braves over the Phillies: Cole Hamels is 11-19 in his last 49 starts for the Phillies despite pitching well. So 38 of his last 49 games have either been losses or no decisions. Poor blighter. I'm going with the Braves and Aaron Harang.
• The Marlins over the Giants: Henderson Alvarez is always a good choice at home. He does have to face Tim Hudson though. Hudson has been shaky in his last few starts, but he is one of the best of his generation.
• The Rays over the Twins: Everything in this game points to a Rays' win. That's what scares me. David Price is on the mound and he has been terrific. Phil Hughes might run into a few bats, particularly Ben Zobrist or Matt Joyce.
• The Diamondbacks over the Cubs: Wade Miley has been on a nice run and seems back from the dead. Travis Wood is only throwing 88 MPH fastballs these days and hasn't had a great game in a while.
• The Mets over the Padres: In all the years I have been doing this, Dillon Gee has been my lucky charm. Picking him hardly ever goes against me. Of course, I probably just jinxed myself. Tyson Ross goes for the Padres.
• The Athletics over the Orioles: Wei-Yin Chen has done nothing but win games this season. But I like Josh Donaldson and Derek Norris against him today. Jason Hammel has to pitch well.
• The Angels over the Mariners: This one will be fun to watch! Felix Hernandez versus Garrett Richards. Both pitchers are 11-2. Both have been dominant. I'm going with the Angels because The King has been mostly just so-so against the Angels in his career. Huston Street closes the game?

And the Game of the Day:

• The Tigers over the Indians: The Tigers take the second game behind Max Scherzer who gets Zach McAllister for an opponent. Scherzer has been on a roll.

Yesterday: 9-6, July: 115-86, Games of the Day: 56-44, Season: 798-661

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: July 9, 2014

I should have stayed in Florida. My first picking day back in Maine was a disaster. Twice as many picks went wrong than went right. The Cubs blew a 5-0 lead as they inexplicably took Wada out after only five innings. The Yankees blew a 5-1 lead with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound. I picked against Kyle Kendrick and sure enough he gave up seven runs in five-plus innings...and won. Phil Hughes shut me up by blanking the Mariners. R.A. Dickey shut me up by blanking the Angels. It was just a bad, bad day.

Let's see how it goes now that I am home. Wednesday's picks:

• The Tigers over the Dodgers: The Dodgers are the worst good team I have ever seen. Does that make any sense? The Tigers might be the second worst. But somehow they both stay at the top. Pitching sure helps. Both teams have pitching tonight as Max Scherzer faces Zack Greinke. I'm going with Scherzer.
• The Padres over the Rockies: I pick the Padres and pick them again and again and they lose. When I pick them to lose, they win. Hmm. I am picking them to win. Eric Stults wins his second in a row and Jair Jurrjens continues to be a bad idea for the Rockies.
• The Blue Jays over the Angels: This is not an overreaction to last night. It's a reaction to how good Marcus Stroman has been for the Blue Jays. And he has beaten some really good teams while at it. C.J. Wilson has looked so-so lately.
• The Diamondbacks over the Marlins: Both Nathan Eovaldi and Josh Collmenter are completely unpredictable. Thus said, I'll go with the home team.
• The Yankees over the Indians: This is a hedged thought that Brandon McCarthy might be a steal for the Yankees as his peripherals do not match his results. Josh Tomlin has had a weird last five starts. One was a brilliant one-hitter and the rest were all crap.
• The Nationals over the Orioles: Yesterday's game was rained out. So tonight's game features the same pitching match-ups and I still think Doug Fister will pitch better than Bud Norris.
• The Mets over the Braves: Yes. The Mets. Again. Dillon Gee was pitching great before he got hurt. Then he pitched great during his rehab. So I am going with him over Ervin Santana, who I have to admit has been throwing very well lately.
• The White Sox over the Red Sox: I picked against Chris Sale his last time out. BIG mistake. I will not do that again. He will win if the White Sox get at least a couple of runs off of Rubby De La Rosa.
• The Rays over the Royals: Let's face it. The Rays have gone on this hot streak just to avoid trading David Price. Alex Cobb over Yordano Ventura. They will find a way.
• The Rangers over the Astros: The Rangers will finally win a game thanks to Yu Darvish pitching at home, where very good things happen for him. Dallas Keuchel goes for the Astros. What are the odds on two pitchers named, "Dallas," pitching in the big leagues on the same night? I bet that has never happened before.
• The Brewers over the Phillies: I have been wrong with this pick for two nights in a row. But Kyle Lohse pitching at home is a good thing. Roberto Hernandez pitching for the Phillies is never a good thing.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: The Cardinals might be making a statement for the rest of the season in this series. If they sweep it, I would say they are. Lance Lynn has to avoid a lynning and a very good (lately) Brandon Cumpton has to be overcome for it to happen.
• The Mariners over the Twins: This isn't a vote so much for Roenis Elias, who has been great in moments and not so great in others. Rather, it is the sad belief that the league is catching up with Kyle Gibson, who simply does not strike out enough batters to remain effective.
• The Athletics over the Giants: Jason Hammel will pitch well for the A's. Why? Because everything they seem to do turns golden somehow. Matt Cain has been in a sad state for most of the season. How long do the Giants stick with him?

And the Game of the Day:

• The Reds over the Cubs: Dallas Beeler gave up no earned runs in his first start and yet lost the game. Welcome to the Cubs, kid. He is up against Alfredo Simon, one of the best stories of the baseball season.

Yesterday: 5-10, July: 66-48, Games of the Day: 50-44, Season: 749-623

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: May 10, 2014

Another day, another day that wasn't very good. At least I finished a pick over .500 this time and at least I was .500 on extra-inning games. But days like yesterday are extremely frustrating and, of course, the Game of the Day was wrong again. Amazing. The Marlins' streak ended in a big way. I told you Jose Fernandez is not the same on the road. Why did I not listen to myself? Phil Hughes. Phil freakin' Hughes. That's all I'm going to say there.

It was a real shame that Yu Darvish lost his no-hitter with two out in the ninth. I get the feeling that Ian Kinsler on defense would have made a difference there. But he plays for the Tigers now.

Saturday's picks:

• The Tigers over the Twins: The Twins are quite pesky and I need about five hands to count all the times I've been wrong picking against them this season. I would pick them today with Kyle Gibson on the mound. I would, that is, if Max Scherzer were not pitching for the Tigers.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: I have a feeling this game might get testy around Puig. I could be wrong, but I feel it building. I like Zack Greinke over Matt Cain, who is coming back from his culinary cuts that caused him to miss a start.
• The Orioles over the Astros: Miguel Rodriguez has not been very good this season. But he gets the Astros. Collin McHugh was brilliant for two games and then not ever since.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Yesterday was a real bad loss for the Cardinals. They had that game and blew it. Today they have a favorable match-up with Lance Lynn versus Edinson Volquez. Will they take advantage?
• The White Sox over the Diamondbacks: Woe is the Diamondbacks. Gosh, it's ugly. Are they really this bad? Will it ever turn around? Today they get the lefty, Jose Quintana, who is starting to put it together again. Wade Miley has been better of late though.
• The Cubs over the Braves: I am going with Jeff Samardzija today. This is a tough guy here who is pitching great. He deserves a win. Ervin Santana is not this good. I repeat, he is not this good.
• The Indians over the Rays: Erik Bedard is simply not what he used to be and is a good symptom of what is wrong with the Rays. I am going with Zach McAllister instead.
• The Rockies over the Reds: This one is really tough. Alfredo Simon and Jordan Lyles have been two of the biggest surprises this year. They are a combined 8-1. One of them has to lose. I am going with Jordan Lyles because he has only given up three earned runs so far in three road starts.
• The Brewers over the Yankees: CC Sabathia returns to the home of his glorious run with the Brewers all those years ago. He will be remembered warmly there and will get lots of Milwaukee love. But he is not the pitcher he was then. He is far from it. Kyle Lohse is extremely effective at home.
• The Mets over the Phillies: This pick did not work out well yesterday. But I am a big fan of picking Dillon Gee. On the other hand, he hasn't pitched well over the Phillies through the years. So there is that. Kyle Kendrick goes for the Phillies.
• The Red Sox over the Rangers: Martin Perez was my guy and I hardly ever picked against him. But he has really kronked over the last two outings. And the Red Sox hit lefties well. Jon Lester is the only question. How good will he be in Texas?
• The Marlins over the Padres: Another pick that did not go well yesterday. Nathan Eovaldi is throwing serious gas. But he hasn't gotten the decision very often. Eric Stults confuses me.
• The Athletics over the Nationals: I like Tanner Roark quite a bit. But I like Sonny Gray even more. The Nats get an extra bat in the lineup, but does that help in the Coliseum?
• The Royals over the Mariners: Chris Young is pitching way over his head. But at 6'10" he pitches over most people's heads. His strikeout rate is like 4.5 per nine. This has to end soon. On the other hand, Yordano Venture is throwing great, especially on the road.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Angels over the Blue Jays: First off, I really like Tyler Skaggs. Secondly, J.A. Happ is pitching for the Blue Jays and is coming off the disabled list. That combination of things leans me in the Angels' direction.

Yesterday: 8-7, May: 67-57, Games of the Day: 16-20, Season: 300-232

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: May 4, 2014

Saturday reversed the day from Friday. After only getting five correct on the latter, only five were incorrect for the former. Even so, the Game of the Day feature was wrong again, which is infuriating. Julio Teheran was great but gave up three solo homers. And on the other side, Ryan Vogelsong had command issues, but was aided by two double-plays and a caught stealing. Another pick was aided this time from the Blue Jays' total inability to put a game away. That team's bullpen is a total disaster right now.

That brings us to Sunday, the best baseball day of the week. The picks:

• The Indians over the White Sox: Andre Rienzo has been good thus far, but I have to go with Corey Kluber at home. The White Sox will miss Adam Eaton's energy while he is on the disabled list.
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: This game could go either way. Both teams should have their better relief pitchers back. A lot will depend on how the starters do. Erik Bedard and CC Sabathia are hard to trust either way. I'm going with the home team.
• The Marlins over the Dodgers: I am worried over always depending on Jose Fernandez to be perfect at home. On some days, he won't. On the other hand, the Dodgers are starting Barney Stephen Fife, which doesn't make me want to pick them.
• The Athletics over the Red Sox: John Lackey has had two brilliant starts in a row. But Sonny Gray is my guy! I have to go with my guy, right? It is a stupid reason to make a pick, but it's not as if I have these magic scientific formulas with this daily column.
• The Braves over the Giants: This is how messed up my mind gets after weeks of doing this in the unpredictable game we call baseball. I figure Madison Bumgarner is a lock over Alex Wood and will strike out a dozen Braves. But then I start to thinking about Wainwright and the Cards and the last time I called a lock and remember this as a trap. Oy. Does anyone want to do this for me for a few weeks?
• The Pirates over the Blue Jays: Are the Blue Jays a mess right now, or what? Dustin McGowan is the starter today, but he would solve some problems if he were in the bullpen. On the other hand, Edinson Volquez could give up at least four homers today with his history.
• The Twins over the Orioles: Heaven help me, I am picking Phil Hughes to win at home. The big ballpark should help him and the fact that Miguel Gonzalez is as unpredictable as him should help too.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Jason Vargas has pitched somewhat well against the Tigers in his career, winning two of his three decisions. But I just can't get myself to go there with Justin Verlander on the mound for the Tigers.
• The Astros over the Mariners: Collin McHugh has been brilliant in his first two starts, but the key is if the Astros can score anything. Brandon Maurer can be had. But this is far from a lock pick.
• The Angels over the Rangers: I never seem to get it right when Yu Darvish is pitching. Hey! Did yu know that Darvish's real first name is Sefat? I am going with the Angels and Tyler Skaggs.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: The Dbacks are playing better lately. But I like Tyson Ross at home over Wade Miley in this one. It all depends on if the Padres can score.
• The Reds over the Brewers: I like Kyle Lohse better at home than in a band box like the one in Cincinnati. On the other hand, I know that it's almost midnight and Alfredo Simon is going to turn back into a pumpkin. Both pitchers have great records, so it could go either way.
• The Mets over the Rockies: Yeah, this might be dumb. I just don't like picking guys who are making their first starts of the season like Jhoulys Chacin is for the Rockies. Dillon Gee is very good, but will he be at Coors?
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: Both Lance Lynn and Jason Hammel are 4-1. Hammel will be a nice flip for the Cubs at the trade deadline. The Cards aren't scoring and Cardinal Nation is in an uproar. But the fans should relax. The Cards will be fine. Wait and see.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Nationals over the Phillies: Every sensibility would figure that Gio Gonzalez should be better than Roberto Hernandez. But, again, after doing this for so long, such sensibility are rubbed raw by the nature of the game.

Yesterday: 10-5, Month: 23-18, Games of the Day: 14-16, Season: 256-192