The very strange season of Mike Napoli

After one great year with the Rangers and one successful, but disappointing season, Mike Napoli was going to be one of the Red Sox' big free agent signings. And then a physical detected a chronic hip ailment despite Napoli feeling just fine. Instead of a three year deal for big bucks, Mike Napoli still signed with the Red Sox for only $5 million, which has been a bargain. Despite the health concerns, Napoli has still managed a .344 wOBA and a 113 wRC+. The strange thing about Napoli's season is how he has arrived there.

Everything about Napoli's season is weird. All his peripherals seem out of whack with what he has traditionally done before. The most obvious statistic, of course, is the strikeouts. Mike Napoli has become a strikeout machine. His 123 whiffs lead the American League. Napoli has always been prone to the strikeout, but it was generally in the mid-20% range. His career strikeout percentage is 26.4%, a number that has gone up with a big uptick in K's the last two seasons.

Napoli has good plate discipline. He does not swing at pitches out of the strike zone with regularity. And that has remained constant. But his strikeout percentage has still risen over the past two years. Last year, he finished with a whiff rate of 30%. This year, he is at a career high of 33.5%. His swing and miss rate of 13.1% is also a career high. And pitchers are pitching him differently. They have thrown first pitch strikes 60% of the time on Napoli, also a career high for him.

So the strikeouts are up...way up. And his walk percentage is down. During Napoli's two seasons in Texas, his walk percentage was exactly the same in both seasons at 13.4%. That seems like a pretty constant and would thus be predictable this season. But instead, his walk rate is down to 10.4%, a number that is below his career average too.

So his strikeouts are way up. His walks are down. And yet, he has nearly the same exact on-base percentage as last year at .343. Very strange. How can his on-base percentage stay the same when he strikes out more and walks less? His batting average is higher...32 points higher than last season. 

And why is his batting average higher? The answer lies in his BABIP, which is sitting at an incredibly high .382. Why is his BABIP so high? Luck? Perhaps some. But his BABIP is high because his line drive percentage has gone all Willy Wonka. 

Mike Napoli has a career line drive percentage of 19.4%. His highest line drive total was in 2010 at 19.7%. This season, Napoli has gone all Votto on us and his line drive percentage is at 26.7%!

So let's review what we have so far. Mike Napoli is striking out more, walking less and yet hitting ropes when he does make contact. Is that weird enough for one article? Wait, there is more.

For his career, 19.7% of Mike Napoli's fly balls have gone over the fence for homers. That figure was over 25% in both seasons for Texas. In his season with the Angels, that figure was at 19.5%. That is a pretty consistent homer to fly ball rate and one you can count on, right? Wrong. His homer to fly ball rate this season sits at 14.5%.

And because of his lower homer to fly ball rate, Mike Napoli's slugging percentage is his lowest since his second season in 2007 and his OPS currently is the lowest of his career. Add in another head scratching statistic. 

I will add in one more final one to finish out my point that Napoli is having a strange season. Napoli is playing more first base. In fact, he has nearly tripled his innings at first over any other season. The experience may in part explain why his UZR at first was -1.2 and -2.1 over the last two seasons, only to jump up to a plus six this season. Suddenly, he has become a first base whiz?

So how do you predict the rest of the season based on that hot mess? Well, here is my take. He will walk slightly more, strike out just as often, hit less line drives, but hit much more homers in the second half. All that said, his batting average will go down, his OPS will remain the same and his slugging percentage will go up. In other words, if some of his peripherals go back to his normal ranges, he will still improve slightly in OPS and wOBA and will be more than worth the $5 million the Red Sox paid for him.

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: July 20, 2013

Last night's picks were like Julio Teheran's season. I would "win" one pick and then "lose" one. And that pattern kept up all night until near the end, I finally got two in a row to finish just one pick over .500. It was not a great start to the post-All Star Break. And the Game of the Day pick was wrong too, which has been rare lately as the Twins beat the Indians.

And how unexplainable is baseball when the Royals and Ervin Santana shut out the Tigers, 1-0, on two hits?

Oh well, back to the drawing board. Here are Saturday's picks:

• The Phillies over the Mets: Jeremy Hefner let me down yesterday. Here I go writing a glowing article about him and he gets crushed. With that painful memory in mind, I am not going to pick Zack Wheeler and will instead go with Cole Hamels, who is finally starting to win some games.
• The White Sox over the Braves: The White Sox will have a nice day off of Paul Maholm and Jake Peavy is back in the rotation to shut down the Braves.
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: Now Almonte is hurt. The Yankees have had lots of luck, but it has been all bad. And yet Fox is still broadcasting the game because it is, "The Rivalry." The news is, Fox, that the Yankees have become the least entertaining club on the planet. Have fun making this one shine. John Lackey over Hiroki Kuroda.
• The Reds over the Pirates: Oh dear, here we go. Pirate angst will start to build. When is the last time A.J. Burnett won a game? It seems like forever. Mat Latos hasn't had any trouble winning at all. This one is all Reds.
• The Dodgers over the Nationals: It is time to face facts. The Nats are not going to come back, are they? They just cannot put it together. Meanwhile, the Dodgers cannot seem to lose lately. Zack Greinke over Gio Gonzalez.
• The Indians over the Twins: The Indians sure are confusing. Are they a good team? Can they contend? One day you say yes and the next you say no. Corey Kluber is just as perplexing. There are times he looks unbeatable and others where he gets knocked silly. I still think he is a better pick than Kevin Correia.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Will Justin Verlander look anything like Justin Verlander? If so, will the Tigers score off of Jeremy Guthrie? The questions abound. The Tigers should win. But that is what I said yesterday.
• The Brewers over the Marlins: Nathan Eovaldi has pitched really well thus far for the Marlins. But can you believe in it? I cannot. He still seems like a 4-A pitcher to me. Yovani Gallardo is solid at home and the only question is whether he will be traded.
• The Mariners over the Astros: Bud Norris sure made a case for himself yesterday to get traded. Not. Erik Bedard will not be coveted by anyone. Perhaps the rest has been good for Hisashi Iwakuma who had a rough patch there for a while.
• The Cardinals over the Padres: The Cards' bullpen was awful yesterday and they still won easily. Lance Lynn is better than Jake Westbrook, who won. So you should figure on Lynn winning too. Edinson Volquez has been better this year though.
• The Rockies over the Cubs: This is the same way I picked the game yesterday and the Cubs won. But Jeff Samardzija is capable of a shutdown game and he had one. I am not so sure Carlos Villanueva can do the same. Juan Nicasio goes for the Rockies.
• The Orioles over the Rangers: Picking against the Orioles like I did yesterday is not a good way to have success. The Orioles are a good team all around and it is okay if Chris Davis strikes out three times in four at bats. There are others that can pick him up. Miguel Gonzalez over Ross Wolf.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: The Giants' pitching is rounding into form finally and Matt Cain should keep that going today. Wade Miley can have a good game, but he is nowhere near where he was last year.
• The Angels over the Athletics: Josh Hamilton is slowing putting it together. This pick totally depends on C.J. Wilson having a good game. That is not comforting. Dan Straily sure has been good for a guy who cannot stick in the A's rotation for very long.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: I thought the Jays were going to win yesterday. But then the Rays hit four solo homers to tie and then pull away to win. Jeremy Hellickson has been solid for a month and a half now and should win this one unless Mark Buehrle has a good BABIP game.

Yesterday: 8-7

Week: 16-15

Month: 127-86

Season: 804-622

Games of the Day: 63-41

MLB Game Picks - Friday: July 19, 2013

And on the fifth day, he said, "Let there be baseball," and then there was baseball. The All Star Break is finally over and once again, the grand game of baseball gets back into the swing of things on a relentless pace that will not end until the end of October.

I kept a four year tradition of picking the All Star Game incorrectly. Hey, if you are only going to have one game to pick in a four day span, you might as well get it wrong. Home field advantage in the World Series can make a huge difference though, so the American League gets the nod this year.

Just to make sure today is not like some opening day like feel, every team is in action and they are all night games. I am back in the saddle and these are your Friday picks:

• The Nationals over the Dodgers: This is a big game for both teams. Both would like to make a charge in the second half and get where they were predicted to get by the end. Ricky Nolasco has been good for the Dodgers. And I am sure he feels like he has a new life. Stephen Strasburg will need to come up big in the second half for the Nats. Going with the home team.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Another round in the battle of the Ays. The Blue Jays will have a big say in who is going to win the AL East and wild cards. And they are not going to be easy to beat at home. But on any given day, you have to pick David Price over Esmil Rogers.
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: Why do the Yankees have to wait until Monday to get A-Rod back? I will never understand how long these rehab things take. Will Jeter be back tonight? No word on that yet. With those questions unanswered, the fact remains that lefties are fatal for the current Yankees. Felix Doubront over Andy Pettitte.
• The Mets over the Phillies: The Phillies still think they have playoff aspirations. I will believe it when I see it. Other than Domenic Brown, what is there? Jeremy Hefner over Kyle Kendrick.
• The Reds over the Pirates: A very interesting match-up. Mike Leake is unpredictable but has been more good than bad. Francisco Liriano has been very good but the memories of his meltdowns are hard to forget. I am going with the Reds at home.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: Wei-Yin Chen came back from the disabled list with a very effective game last time out. So this pick might end up paying for it if the Rangers cannot score. But Derek Holland is also capable of shutting down the Orioles too. Another interesting game.
• The Braves over the White Sox: The Braves get an extra hitter (is Gattis back?) and have Tim Hudson on the mound. John Danks has looked pretty good since coming back, but his mates have to score. Hudson is the deciding factor.
• The Tigers over the Royals: I would normally always pick Anibal Sanchez over Ervin Santana. But if this game stays close, the Royals have the better bullpen. It probably won't stay close.
• The Brewers over the Marlins: Jacob Turner has been very good for the Marlins and looks like he might be on his way to fulfilling his promise. But I like the old pro, Kyle Lohse at home in Milwaukee too much to pick against him.
• The Astros over the Mariners: The last two times I have picked against Joe Saunders, I have paid for it. But I am a stubborn coot. Not that I like Bud Norris that much better, but at home, he has a chance and Houston has a bigger right-field porch than left.
• The Cardinals over the Padres: Jason Marquis has not won a game in a month and four days. But the Cardinals' old friend has not pitched badly. His team has not scored for him. Jake Westbrook at least gives the Padres a fighting chance. But I still like the Cardinals at home.
• The Rockies over the Cubs: Jeff Samardzija did not look good at all in his last start. He got rocked in fact. Following up that performance at Coors Field does not make me feel at all like that will go well either. Jorge De La Rosa knows how to pitch at Coors.
• The Angels over the Athletics: A.J. Griffin, like the A's has been on a bit of a roll. But I would have to think twice or three times before picking against Jered Weaver at home. The Angels' ace has been awfully quiet this summer. I think he will be loud in the second half.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Chad Gaudin. I am picking Chad Gaudin? Oy. But he is at home and the Diamondbacks are pitching Ian Kennedy who has not looked good at all. Kennedy does have a bit of a history having big second halves though.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Indians over the Twins: I went with Scott Kazmir in his last outing and he rewarded me for the pick. So I am sticking with him this outing too. The Twins counter with Mike Pelfrey who needs a whole lot of "at em" balls to succeed.

The All Star Game: 0-1

Week: 8-8

Month: 119-79

Season: 796-615

Games of the Day: 63-40

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: July 16, 2013

The All Star Game is tonight and I supposed I should pick who is going to win. After all, the road to October starts here. That was only slightly sarcastic. Home field advantage in the World Series is sort of a big deal. We could debate whether something so important should be decided by an exhibition game. I would be against the idea. But there it is. Despite having to get most of the players in the game, the managers also have to try to win it. Good luck with all of that.

Most of these games are decided early. Whichever starter is not effective will lose the game. The NL has jumped into an early lead in recent years and that lead has held up. The addition in recent years of lots of relief specialists has greatly changed the nature of the game. Having a starter warm up in a position he is unaccustomed is totally different than a pitcher who does it for a living. Frankly, only one or two relievers should be allowed on each team and that is it. But that is not the way it is.

The All Star Game pick:

• The National League over the American League: My gut feeling here is that Matt Harvey will come out smoking in his home park and blitz the AL hitters. Meanwhile, like his teammate, Justin Verlander, before him, Max Scherzer gets beat up early by NL hitters who build a lead they will not relinquish.

Sunday: 8-7

Week: 8-7

Month: 119-78

Season: 796-624

Games of the Day: 63-40

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: July 14, 2013

Today is the last day of the supposed first half. The first half actually ended just a little while ago. But just about everyone separates the season into before the All Star Break and after. The "before" part ends today and the only night game is at Wrigley Field, which is ironic if you think about it.

As for me, I will get a few days of a break from game picking (I will pick the All Star Game) and perhaps I can sleep an extra hour in the mornings for a few days. That will be nice. Today and yesterday I had to get up extra early because of a golf tournament I am playing this weekend. The first day did not go well and today is just one of those going through the motion days. Oh well.

And the picks sort of just went through the motions yesterday. In sixteen games, I only finished two games over the .500 mark. Here are Sunday's picks:

• The Indians over the Royals: The Royals will be glad that the first half is over as it did not go as well as hoped. One of the reasons it did not has been James Shields who pitches today. I think Swisher and Santana will get to him. The pick could go to pieces if Ubaldo Jimenez does not do well.
• The Yankees over the Twins: This pick did not go well yesterday as Phil Hughes did what Phil Hughes does at Yankee Stadium (give up homers). Today should feature a good game from CC Sabathia and even though the Yankees will make Kyle Gibson look better than he is, they should win.
• The Tigers over the Rangers: This pick is another that did not go well yesterday. Scherzer finally lost. But Justin Verlander should have a good day at home and Martin Perez cannot be as good as he has been pitching.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: I do not believe in either pitcher this game. Henderson Alvarez goes for the Fish and Taylor Jordan for the Nats. It will be a BABIP game and whichever pitcher finds more gloves with his batted balls wins.
• The Phillies over the White Sox: The left-handed Cole Hamels should be tougher on the White Sox than yesterday's two starters. Jose Quintana is not that bad a pitcher, but will have no run support.
• The Reds over the Braves: Sometimes you have to go with a pattern even if it is not logical. Julio Teheran has not won back to back games all season. He won his last start, so the pattern says he should not win today. That is good enough for me. Tony Cingrani for the win.
• The Pirates over the Mets: Dillon Gee will keep the Mets in the game and give them a chance to win. Gerrit Cole has lost two straight, but that is because of poor run support and not a lack of good pitching. Cole will come out on top today.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Scott Feldman has had a decent season. But if you look at his game log, all of his bad outings have come against good offenses like the Cardinals, Reds and Rangers. So that doesn't give me confidence to pick him today against the Blue Jays. I think Josh Johnson will fare better against the Orioles.
• The Rays over the Astros: I think Chris Archer and Erik Bedard are about equal as pitchers. Archer is much younger and now has the better arm. I am going with the home team, which is also the better team.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: And yet another Brandon makes the Majors as Brandon Workman has already gotten his MLB debut in a relief appearances. He has a good arm, but his first outing did not go well. He will do better preparing for a start. The biggest reason for this pick is that, even though Bartolo Colon has been fantastic, leave it to the Red Sox to give him his first clunker of a start.
• The Mariners over the Angels: The M's might as well finish off the sweep and end the Angels' first half on a fitting note. Hisashi Iwakuma has not had an effective start in a while. That will happen today. Joe Blanton will find some bats to hit.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: The Dodgers will finish the first half with notice that they will be the team to beat in the second half. Ricky Nolasco basks again in the California sun and Jhoulys Chacin, who has had a good season, gets the hard luck loss.
• The Diamondbacks over the Brewers: My crystal ball says that Ian Kennedy will hit Ryan Braun, Braun will charge the mound and get suspended before he gets suspended. That would be silly, no? Anyway, Wily Peralta has not pitched well except, perhaps, for his last start.
• The Giants over the Padres: Barry Zito will not no-hit the Padres like yesterday's Lincecum start, but he should win the game. Eric Stults is finally getting in my radar with his win-loss timing.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Cardinals over the Cubs: Adam Wainwright pitching today means that he will probably not pitch in the All Star Game, which is kind of a shame as he has been the NL's best pitcher. But he should win his thirteenth game tonight against the Cubs despite a very good Travis Wood pitching for the Cubbies.

Yesterday: 9-7

Last week: 61-39

Month: 111-71

Season: 788-617

Games of the Day: 62-40

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: July 13, 2013

The biggest golf tournament of the season in these parts takes place today, so here I am at five o'clock in the morning to make sure I bring you the game picks. Dedication! Oy, I am tired.

Yesterday was not that bad of a day as the picks went 8-6 with a postponement in Philadelphia. One of the incorrect picks was the Game of the Day as David Price was out-pitched by young Jarred Cosart, who won his Major League debut. Nice going, kid! It was the first hit for the Game of the Day in quite some time, so I cannot quibble.

There are sixteen games on the schedule with a double-header in Philly. Here are Saturday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Twins: The Yankees better hope Phil Hughes has a good day with the scouts watching so they can trade him in a few days. Sam Deduno pitched well for the Twins against the Yankees last time out. But the Yankees are at home.
• The Phillies over the White Sox: I still think Jonathan Pettibone beats John Danks even though the Phillies struggle slightly against lefties.
• The Braves over the Reds: I was right about Homer Bailey struggling after a no-hitter. It always happens for some reason. Mike Minor better be very good for the Braves though.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: Jason Hammel is a scary proposition against Bautista and Encarnacion. But I would rather pick him than Todd Redmond. Yes, Redmond was okay in his first start. But there is a reason he is the Blue Jays' eighth option as a starting pitcher.
• The Bay Rays over the Astros: Okay, so the Rays could not beat the Astros with David Price on the mound. So how are they going to beat the Astros with Roberto Hernandez on the mound? That would be because Dallas Keuchel starts for the Astros.
• The Indians over the Royals: Scott Kazmir is hanging in there, is he not? Good for him. I think he wins today against the Royals despite the fact that the Yankees fixed Jeremy Guthrie. Again, if you have a struggling pitcher, send him up against the Yankees.
• The Pirates over the Mets: The Mets are starting Carlos Torres, who has not started a game in the Majors since 2010. That said, if the season is any guide, he will be great. But I cannot pick a guy with his kind of record who has not started in the bigs in that long. I will go with A.J. Burnett at home.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: Lance Lynn avoided that one bad inning in his last start, so perhaps he is over that little problem. He has a tough task today as Matt Garza is throwing well and will get traded here soon.
• The Tigers over the Rangers: I can hear a groundswell of analytic writers rooting hard against Max Scherzer because they hate the wins stat and all Max Scherzer has done is win. That makes him tough to pick against for awards when fWAR and other stats say differently. While I love the new numbers and the new stats, I still think a win is a win. And Scherzer wins again. Derek Holland with a tough luck loss.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Jose Fernandez has been just about perfect at home this season. And that is where he pitches today. Dan Haren seems like his arm and his career are about toasted at this point, which is too bad. At one time, he was a tough hombre.
• The Phillies over the White Sox: Yes, I am predicting a sweep with the Phillies getting over the .500 hump for the first time in a long time. Not that it will be easy. John Lannon has to pitch a good game. That is asking a lot. But if he does, Hector Santiago is one of those fringe pitchers that seem to hang around for not logical reason.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: The Red Sox never lose...except when Jon Lester pitches. Which is weird to say as you would think that he would be the anchor. He has been, but in the bad connotation of that word. But he wins today and A.J. Griffin, who is usually good at home, gives up just enough for the Red Sox to win again.
• The Mariners over the Angels: Felix Hernandez is no longer the same Felix Hernandez. He isn't and I think there is something wrong with him. But he will keep taking the ball and he is savvy enough to still win. Jered Weaver is darn good though. I predict that Weaver plunks Raul Ibanez.
• The Brewers over the Diamondbacks: Kyle Lohse finds a way. I have been fascinated by him for quite some time. He is simply a guy who pitches better than his talent. That's all there is to it. Randall Delgado could learn from him.
• The Giants over the Padres: Tim Lincecum struck out eleven batters his last outing. That was impressive. Is he back? Are the Giants back after winning a couple in a row? That is what I am thinking. Edinson Volquez goes for the Padres.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Tyler Chatwood is pretty good, especially on the road away from Coors. And he has a nice pitchers' park today. The only problem is that he is facing Zack Greinke, who is going to pitch better. The Dodgers continue to roll.

Yesterday: 8-6

Week: 52-32

Month: 102-64

Season: 779-610

Games of the Day: 61-40

MLB Game Picks - Friday: July 12, 2013

Yesterday was a tough day and it was only a bit of success at the end of the day that led to a 6-6 record. The mediocre day put a bit of a damper on what has been a good week. First of all, I should have picked Danny Salazar, who was terrific. I picked against Danny Salazar and for Ross Wolf, two young pitchers. I got them both wrong even though Ross pitched a good game. His team could not score against Miguel Gonzalez. My beloved Jordan Zimmerman pitched another great game and deserved to win. But his team could not score against Kyle Kendrick. And Edwin Jackson, of all people, shut out the Cardinals. I felt that coming and did not pick it.

And so it was a tough day. Now we enter the final weekend before the All Star Break and I am looking forward to Monday. I need a couple of days as a break myself. Heck, I just write about these games. Imagine the grind of those who play it every day!

Friday's picks:

• The Cardinals over the Cubs: I debated on this one a long time. Both teams are starting long relievers. The Cards are going with Joe Kelly and the Cubs with Carlos Villanueva. Both are very useful pitchers who can never quite make a team's starting rotation. I think they cancel each other out and then I go with the better team.
• The Phillies over the White Sox: The White Sox are playing a little better. I should have picked Chris Sale yesterday and did not. But in this one, I see Jonathan Pettibone doing better than John Danks. And the White Sox lose a batter.
• The Indians over the Royals: Early in the season, I picked against Corey Kluber a lot. And then he got hot and it took me a while to come over to picking him. And then he got cold and I was on the wrong side again. He was great his last time out. So I am picking him. Bruce Chen is going for the Royals. Royals' fans have seen this before.
• The Yankees over the Twins: The Twins have traditionally struggled against the Yankees. These are not the same Yankees and it looks like Derek Jeter's return was for a day and won't play today probably. But Hiroki Kuroda is not a pitcher to pick against and Scott Diamond is.
• The Mets over the Pirates: I just wrote about Jeremy Hefner yesterday, so I have to pick him, right? Besides, I am not a big fan of Charlie Morton. Perhaps the Pirates went cold for going back to this blast to the terrible past for a pitcher.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: Mark Buehrle has been pitching well, but the Orioles have too good an offense and Chris Tillman is having a good season. It is tough to pick against the Orioles at home.
• The Tigers over the Rangers: Justin Grimm is not pitching well and has not made it past the fifth inning in his last four starts. Doug Fister is a strange case. He either pitches just fine or he is absolutely awful. What will today bring? He lives so much on the margins, that sometimes he just falls too close ot the cliff.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: The Nationals' offense has been so spotty and it wastes great outings from their big three starting pitchers. Stephen Strasburg has been no different. But he is so good that you have to pick him in any given game. Nathan Eovaldi will hope the Nats' bats are cold again.
• The Braves over the Reds: My gut is telling me that the Braves are going to club three homers against Bronson Arroyo today. And with Arroyo's homer-happy past, that is not a stretch. Kris Medlen will have to pitch a good game for this pick to come in though.
• The Diamondbacks over the Brewers: Tom Gorzelanny is one of those pitchers like Kyle Kendrick, who seem to live on the fringes awaiting their chance and do well once they get it. But I have to go with Patrick Corbin here.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: The Red Sox never seem to lose. Ever. John Lackey has pitched very well this season. Jarrod Parker has had his ups and downs.
• The Angels over the Mariners: Yeah, yeah, Joe Saunders was terrific his last time out. Big deal. The Angels should still beat him up. Jerome Williams was having a great season until his last start. Can he rebound?
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Suddenly, the Dodgers are relentless. Hairston, Ellis, Puig, Gonzalez and especially Hanley Ramirez, are all hitting the ball really well and the team is getting good pitching. All that could come together here against Juan Nicasio of the Rockies. The Rockies are sinking but have Troy Tulowitzki back. Clayton Kershaw goes for the Dodgers.
• The Giants over the Padres: The Padres are starting Sean O'Sullivan who has not started in the big leagues since 2011. His MLB K/9 is invisible but he was having a good strikeout season for him in the minors. I am not buying it though. But picking Chad Gaudin just goes against everything I stand for. Ugh!

And the Game of the Day!

• The Bay Rays over the Astros: The Astros are featuring the MLB debut of Jarred Cosart. Cosart was a 38th round draft pick the Astros obtained from the Phillies a couple of years ago (Oswalt deal?). He looks like he has a good arm, but his minor league record is filled with too many walks. I cannot pick that. Besides, David Price has come back with a vengeance from the DL.

Yesterday: 6-6

Week: 44-26

Month: 94-58

Season: 771-604

Games of the Day: 61-39

The complete turnaround of Jeremy Hefner

For most of last year and for the first two months of this season, the only thing Jeremy Hefner had in common with that famous dude with the same last name was that both took a lot of early showers. This season, not only did Hefner lose his first five decisions, but the Mets lost the game in all ten of his first ten appearances. That was not good. In fact, the Mets lost twelve of Hefner's first thirteen appearances. But Hefner actually started pitching better on May 24 against the Braves and then beat the Yankees for his first win of the season. Now, the Mets have won five of his last five starts with Hefner getting the win in three of them. Jeremy Hefner has turned it around.

When you are pitching in a situation like Jeremy Hefner is with the Mets, the one thing it affords is a chance to get straightened out. If Hefner was pitching for a winning club, he might have been pulled from the rotation and even from a Major League roster. After nine starts, the man did have an ERA of 5.00. But Hefner has benefited from the Mets' situation and was able to keep getting the ball every five days and that has paid off handsomely for him.

The big question is this: Are his last five starts for real? Are we finally seeing the real Jeremy Hefner, or is he just having a lucky stretch after a really bad stretch? Let's take a look.

The Good News:

Hefner pitched 29 innings in April, 28 in May and 29 in June. In April, Hefner walked eleven batters. In May, that went down to nine. In June, that went down again to five. Thus, his strikeout to walk ratio in the three months has a nice progression: 1.82, 2.44, 4.60 and that figure is 4.67 in July. Due to more contact, his hit rate went up all three months, but has come down nicely in July.

Unlike BABIP and other indicators, you cannot fake strikeout to walk ratios.

But does Hefner's stuff look good enough to continue his success? Consider that his slider is rated by Fangraphs as the fourth best in all of baseball. Only Darvish, Masterson and Bumgarner's rate higher. That is pretty nice company. Hefner's curve ranks seventh in all of baseball with guys like Strasburg, Burnett, Leake, Kershaw and Wainwright ahead of him. Again, that is excellent company.

With that kind of success on his breaking stuff, fastball command no doubt makes a big difference in his success. It would be safe to say that early in the season, it was not there. But in the last month and a half, he has been able to get ahead in the count more and then use his terrific breaking pitches to his benefit.

The only doubt that enters the mind is that his last five appearances have been against teams like the Cubs, the Brewers, the Phillies, the Rockies and the Diamondbacks. It was quite impressive what he did at Coors Field, so you cannot take that away from him. But all five of those teams have struggled in the last month. Will Hefner's success continue when the Mets play the best teams again?

I think it will. His stuff is there. He is learning how to get ahead in the count and use his off-speed pitches effectively. Hefner is throwing more strikes, getting less walks and though his homer rate is high, in the last two starts, the one he allowed in each of those starts was a solo homer. 

Hefner also has an improved strand rate this season over last season. Part of that is luck, of course, but another part of it is learning how to stay in the moment and get the outs you need to get out of situations. Jeremy Hefner has been afforded the chance to learn how to perform his craft at the Major League level and he appears to be doing just that.

The late emergence of Jeremy Hefner has to be exciting for Mets fans and for his team's brain-trust. His complete turnaround in the last month and a half seems to show that the Mets have built three-fifths of a great rotation with Harvey, Wheeler and Hefner and Gee is only 27 and is coming around nicely too. If four of your five starters give your team a chance to win every time out, the Mets can be on their way back to respectability.

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: July 11, 2013

Wednesday was another good day in what has been a good week. Ten out of the fifteen picks were correct. The Cubs pick was a little laughable. Jeff Samardzija had nothing, unfortunately. The San Diego pick was wrong, though it was a close game. The same can be said of the Toronto - Cleveland game. I split the two extra-inning games. The Dodgers gained further ground on the D-backs, which got me a wrong pick. But I cannot complain. It was a good day.

There are twelve games on the Thursday schedule as the schedule maker decided that six teams needed a day off before the four days of the All Star Break. Okay, like whatever. Heh. Here are Thursday's picks:

• The Blue Jays over the Indians: The Indians will feature the Major League debut of Danny Salazar. Salazar has a great strikeout rate in seventeen starts split between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus with a low walk rate. That is a good combination, but there is no telling how he will perform in the big show. R.A. Dickey seems the safer pick.
• The Yankees over the Royals: The Yankees should fight back to a split in this one as long as Andy Pettitte has a decent outing. The Yankees have at least a chance to score against Ervin Santana.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: The only thing that gives me pause in this pick is Chris Sale pitching for the White Sox. The tall one has a chance to shut down anyone in any given start. Anibal Sanchez will match Sale though and the Tigers will win late.
• The Red Sox over the Mariners: MLB has a TBO next to the pitcher's name in today's game. But Yahoo Sports lists the start going to Erasmo Ramirez. Ramirez had a brief look in the bigs last year and was quite decent. His numbers are good in the minors. He could hold the Red Sox in check. But Ryan Dempster will hold the Mariners to even less runs.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: Ross Wolf gets his second start of the season. He has pitched long relief the rest of the season and has done darned well for himself. His one start was successful too. My only reservation here is that he does not strike people out. He only has six strikeouts in 27+ innings. Hmm.. But I think the Rangers will hit Miguel Gonzalez.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: Ah! My guy! Jordan Zimmermann. He is going for his 13th win tonight. He should get it. His batters are finally starting to kick it in gear and should score off of Kyle Kendrick.
• The Braves over the Reds: This is a very interesting series and an interesting match-up of Mat Latos against a lineup that whiffs a lot and the great Tim Hudson. I think the game completely depends on how good Hudson is tonight. If he is on and can get through the first two innings, the Braves win. If not, this pick is bye-bye.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: This pick is fraught with danger. First, the Cubs have been playing fairly well. Second, as bad as Edwin Jackson can be, he can also be brilliant for a game. Jackson has been better in the last few weeks. Jake Westbrook better have a good outing.
• The Brewers over the Diamondbacks: I think Ryan Braun is supposed to be back today? I am not sure. If so, he gives the Brewers more leverage against Wade Miley, the weakest of the D-backs' big three lefties. Plus, Yovani Gallardo can take advantage of the fact that Arizona is really struggling right now.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: I hate picking the Dodgers when Chris Capuano is pitching. But I cannot in good faith pick Drew Pomeranz. At one time, Pomeranz was the prospect of prospects. But he is now 4-12 as a Major League starter with an ERA over five and a WHIP over 1.5. It is kind of sad, really.
• The Giants over the Padres: Jason Marquis has not won in a month and always has a good chance to do well at Petco. But the Giants are destined to break their losing streak and there is no better pitcher to do it for them than Madison Bumgarner, who should also enjoy Petco.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Bay Rays over the Twins: The Twins are not having a good time in the AL East. The Rays took fourteen innings to beat them yesterday. With Matt Moore facing Mike Pelfrey, the game should only go nine this time.

Yesterday: 10-5

Week: 38-20

Month: 88-52

Season: 765-598

Games of the Day: 60-39

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: July 10, 2013

I believe that I have picked Justin Verlander to win the Game of the Day three times this season. All three seemed like obvious mismatches. He has lost all three. Last night was the third. I do not think I will ever pick him for the Game of the Day again. Nor do I think I will pick the Yankees to win the rest of the season. It is starting to feel like a Daffy Duck cartoon where he keeps getting hit while trying to say something and he sounds more punch drunk each time. Yeah, that's me picking the Yankees.

And the same woes that are plaguing the Yankees, namely a total lack of offense, seems to be plaguing the Pirates too. Gerrit Cole pitched a heck of a game. And lost to Dan Straily, a guy the Pirates should have scored three or four runs against. I am starting to worry about those Pirates.

In fact, I think the picks started 0-4, so I feel rather fortunate to finish the day just in the black. Let's see if I can back to my winning ways today. Wednesday's picks:

• The Marlins over the Braves: The Marlins are starting to sink again after a very good June. But Jacob Turner really has not had a bad outing since coming to the big leagues. I think he shuts down the Braves. Giancarlo Stanton has been quiet and erupts against Paul Maholm.
• The Reds over the Brewers: I cannot believe that the Brewers are going to throw out there poor Johnny Hellweg again. The poor guy has gotten his head handed to him in his first two starts. Mike Leake should fare better and even if he does not, the Reds win a high scoring game.
• The Giants over the Mets: To state that the Giants are in trouble is stating the obvious. They are now nine games below .500 and in last place in the NL West. Who would have thunk it. But I think they win tonight as Matt Cain pitches well and Zack Wheeler gives up too many base runners.
• The Yankees over the Royals: I know, I know. Daffy Duck. Ivan Nova got some confidence in his last outing and Wade Davis is Phil Hughes from a different mother. What the heck, eh?
• The Pirates over the Athletics: I am being stubborn here too. I know I am. But, here is the thing, Francisco Liriano has been really good and Tommy Milone has allowed at least three runs in each of his last four starts. If the Pirates continue that and score three or more runs, they win.
• The Orioles over the Rangers: This pick has been wrong two days in a row. But the third time is the charm. Wei-Yin Chen is back for the Orioles and he should keep the O's in the game. Josh Lindblom inspires no confidence for me and the Orioles' offense wakes up.
• The Indians over the Blue Jays: In the immortal words of The Who, "We won't be fooled again." The Blue Jays are a giant tease. They suck you in and then break your heart. Justin Masterson comes up big and Nick Swisher and Carlos Santana sink Esmil Rogers.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: Cliff Lee has been great. No doubt. But Gio Gonzalez is just as good and can match Lee for zeroes. The Nationals could take this one and get off their losing ways. Their offense needs to push a couple of runs across though and they are not hitting lefties well. hmm...
• The Tigers over the White Sox: I am so over the Tigers. They are the worst good team in baseball. They should win 100 games in that division, but they will probably win like 85 to take it. And then power their way through the playoffs. They make me ill. Rick Porcello over Dylan Axelrod.
• The Rays over the Twins: The Rays, on the other hand, win the games they are supposed to win. I can pretty much count on them. Jeremy Hellickson is never as good as his record. All he does is win. Narrative: He is a winner. Kevin Correia is your typical Twins' pitcher. Win some, lose some, batted balls.
• The Cubs over the Angels: Bet you did not know that the Cubs have won seven of their last ten. Surprised? However, they never seem to win when Jeff Samardzija pitches. Perhaps they will today. C.J. Wilson is doing his typical middle of the season slide.
• The Cardinals over the Astros: The Cards need to win all these games and take advantage of the Pirates having a losing streak. They should win tonight with Shelby Miller pitching. Jordan Lyles still sounds like a cross between a country singer and a soap opera character.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: The D-backs have to be worried. The Dodgers have gone from last place and like ten games out to second place and two and a half back. And they have talked about trading Tyler Skaggs. That would be a very big mistake as he is a terrific young pitcher and will out-pitch Hyun-jin Ryu tonight.
• The Padres over the Rockies: Hey, did you notice my Eric Stults, pick the opposite thing, has worked twice in a row? Yeah. Anyway, I have no idea who is going to win this game. Jorge De La Rosa starts for the Rockies and has too many parts to his name. Andrew Cashner seems like a bright young arm, but he is not blowing anyone away yet. So who knows.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Red Sox over the Mariners: The Red Sox have already hit hard the two superstars of the Mariners' rotation. So will they lose to someone like Aaron Harang? That does not sound likely. I think the Red Sox are going to stay on top of the AL East all season. I think they are that good. Oh, Felix Doubront pitches for the Red Sox.

Yesterday: 8-7

Week: 28-15

Month: 78-47

Season: 755-593

Games of the Day: 59-39