Game Picks - Saturday: May 16, 2009

It could have been a spectacular day. But Pittsburgh blew the save, Washington's bullpen imploded and the Giants pulled Lincecum one inning too soon and blew the game against the Mets. All in all, at least it was a positive day for a change. But this game picker should be thankful at least that Nathan blew a rare save opportunity for the Twins.

Here are today's picks:

• Phillies over the Nationals: Want to pick against Myers. But don't believe Washington will win the game.
• Cubs over the Astros: Picking a rookie pitcher (Wells) over Oswalt doesn't seem smart. But Oswalt isn't what he used to be.
• Yankees over the Twins: Like Chamberlain over Blackburn (who can be good at times or Heartburn).
• Blue Jays over the White Sox: Hard to think that Colon can beat Pena, Longoria and company.
• Cardinals over the Brewers: Wainwright has been Wainwrong for most of the year, but have no faith in Suppon.
• Mets over the Giants: Rule #3. This is Randy Johnson's Mr. Hyde start, plus he's facing Johan Santana.
• Rangers over Angels: Rule #4. Never pick a starter just back from injury (Lackey).
• Bay Rays over the Indians: Have to take Garza over Pavano (though Pavano has somehow won two in a row).
• Marlins over the Dodgers: The Dodgers are pitching Milton. Say what!? He's still pitching!?
• Rockies over the Pirates: Ian Snell hasn't been good. Cook is one of the few Rockies bright spots.
• Phillies over the Nationals: It doesn't matter what the starters do. The Nationals' bullpen is gruesome.
• Tigers over the A's: Battle of the rookies: Porcello against Braden. Going with Porcello.
• Braves over the Diamondbacks: Just because the Diamondbacks are terrible.
• Royals over the Orioles: Davies over Ray. This one is iffy.
• Reds over the Padres: Volquez over Geer.
• Red Sox over the Mariners: Beckett has to get right eventually.

Yesterday: 8-5
Week: 34-40
Month: 86-87

Melky Wins It Again

Perhaps all a guy needs is a little competition. Melky Cabrera fell apart last year. He wasn't spectacular in 2006 and 2007, but he was at least useful. His OPS+ of 95 and 89 were less than league average but his defense was a little better than league average and he played with enthusiasm which was something the Yankees needed. Last year, there were times when he couldn't hit a ball safely if he there were ten strikes instead of three. His OPS+ fell to 68 and he even found himself back at AAA for a while.

He came back to Spring Training and got off to a slow start. He had been told that he was in a competition for the starting centerfield position with Brett Gardner and it was all but assumed that it was Gardner's position to lose. Gardner did really well in the competition and after a slow start, Melky finished the preseason strong but not strong enough to catch Gardner.

Then Gardner started slowly in the regular season and Melky produced when called upon. Slowly, he started more than Gardner. Then exclusively. His OPS+ thus far is a hefty 137. Tonight, he had his second walk off base hit of the season. Things are going really well.

Gardner got a chance Friday night because a red hot Johnny Damon was kicked out of the game after his second straight strikeout. Apparently, Damon and the umpire didn't see eye to eye. So Gardner was put into center and Melky moved over the left. Gardner went three for three with an inside-the-park homer (his second homer in as many games) and two runs scored.

Gardner is by far the better centerfielder. His RTZ and Zone Ratings are off the charts. It still feels like the Yankees are a better team when he is in there. But you don't want to lose Melky the way he is going either. So here's what the Fan thinks the Yankees should do:

Lefty pitching: Swisher in Right, Melky in Center
Righty pitching: Melkey in Right, Gardner in Center.

Swisher does have 8 homers. But he has three hits in the entire month of May (you called it, Josh!) He's coming off a year where he batted .219. Yes, both of those numbers are incredible: three hits in May, .219 in 2008. You don't lose anything in right field when Melky plays in place of Swisher. The only position you can't play Melky is in left (according to the fielding stats).

Now that A-Rod is back and Teixeira seems to be coming around, Swisher seems less and less necessary and the Yankees might be better off with Melky and Gardner running down balls in the outfield and running around the bases. Oh, and by the way, Gardner has more homers in May than Swisher does.

That should be qualified a bit. One of the two homers Gardner has hit this year (and this month) was the inside the park homer mentioned earlier. It was one of the strangest ever. He hit a little cue shot to left and when it landed, it took a weird hop and skipped by the left fielder. By the time the fielder picked up the ball by the wall, Gardner was already at third and heading home.

That's the kind of excitement that speed brings. That speed also brings fantastic defense and the defense is much better if Gardner is in center and Melky in right.

Game Picks - Friday: May 15, 2009

Crap! What an ugly day. It's unbelievable. It would be easier to have an "Opposite Day" where all the games were picked the opposite of what the gut said was going to happen. Perhaps then there would be better success. Unbelievable.

With a stomach full of bile and anger behind the eyes, here are today's picks:

• Cubs over the Astros: Sure. Why not take Randy Wells? Especially against Moehler. Oh whatever!
• Pirates over the Rockies: Maholm had a rough outing last time. Bounce back time.
• Nationals over the Phillies: Like Lannon. Apparently, the Fan can't help himself.
• Detroit over Oakland: Erwin Jackson was fantastic last time. Please let him be fantastic again. Please.
• Yankees over the Twins: Stupid sentiment this pick is. Really want Hughes to do well.
• Blue Jays over the White Sox: Cecil has been stupid good for the Blue Jays. Danks has been good for the White Sox. Since the Fan has been so stupid, might as well go for stupid good.
• Dodgers over the Marlins: Stults for the Dodgers versus Volstad for the Marlins. Keep picking Volstad. Keep getting burned. Fingers hurt.
• Braves over the Diamondbacks: Vasquez versus Davis. Good matchup. But the Diamondbacks are really struggling.
• Bay Rays over the Indians: With any luck, this will be Reyes' last start for the Indians.
• Rangers over the Angels: Saunders just isn't as good as his numbers appear. Millwood wins the game.
• Royals over the Orioles: Rule #1. Never pick against Greinke. Especially against Adam Eaton.
• Brewers over the Cards: Gallardo over Lohse. There is something wrong with Lohse. He doesn't look the same.
• Reds over the Padres: Don't look now, but the Reds are having a great season. Who saw that coming?
• Red Sox over the Mariners: Lester hasn't been good. But Jakubauskas has been worse. The Fan should get extra points for being able to spell his name correctly without looking.
• Giants over the Mets: Lincecum versus Livan? Come on. If this one goes wrong, the Fan is going to flog himself.

Yesterday: 4-8
Week: 26-35 Ugh!
Month: 78-82 Sheesh!

Fun With Pictures

Instead of watching games all the time, sometimes life is busy, so having to follow along on Yahoo box scores has to do. The thing is, while waiting for something to happen, these pictures of the players just sit there and stare. Some are quite comical and remind the viewer of other types of people you meet in life. Here are a few.

Mariners' Bullpen is Killing Them

Felix Hernandez pitched a great game Thursday night. He pitched seven innings of shut out ball, giving up only six hits while walking two and striking out six. Aardsma came in and pitched a strong inning. One inning, one strikeout and that was it. Then the Mariners brought in Brandon (There's always to) Morrow. Goodbye 2-0 lead. Goodbye ball game.

Morrow only got one out in the bottom of the ninth. The rest were three hits, two of them homers. It's the team's seventh blown save in sixteen tries. It's not like the starters have been terrific either. Bedard has been good. Vargas had one good start. Hernandez has his ERA under 4.00 and Jarrod Washburn has been decent. Silva and Jakubauskas (in the running for the most difficult name in the sport) have been awful.

But the relievers have really done poorly. Here's a run down:

- Shawn Kelley: Has been very good. Has good numbers but his two runs given up caused a blown save.

- David Aardsma: Batters have only hit .148 against him and his ERA is excellent. But he's given up 11 walks in 16.2 innings. That will bite you in the end.

- Sean White: Better than league-average ERA, but again, 10 walks in 15+ innings. Has blown a save.

- Miguel Batista: Has a better than league-average ERA, but has given up 30 base runners in 17.2 innings including 10 walks.

- Mark Lowe: Blown save, 27 base runners in 15.1 innings.

- Brandon Morrow: 19 base runners in 8.1 innings. 10 walks, 9 hits. Two blown saves.

- Roy Corcoran: 22 base runners in 8.2 innings including 9 walks. One blown save.

- Denny Stark: 10 base runners in only 3.2 innings including 4 walks.

The consistent thing you see up and down the relief corp is walks. As a team, the relievers have surrendered 64 walks in 102 innings of work.

The Fan suggests at this point that Shawn Kelley be given a shot at closer for a while. He's the only one of the group that throws strikes consistently and has only walked one in 11.2 innings of work. He couldn't be any worse than Morrow. Power arms are nice for the closer position, but if they can't find the plate or have no command of what they are throwing, then all the manager is doing is demoralizing his starters and his players.

Game Picks - Thursday: May 14, 2009

Nine correct out of fifteen is a lot better, but not good enough. Still need to have that breakthrough couple of days to feel better about things. The Zito pick was misguided. Apparently, so is the notion that Nolasco is going to return to last year's form. To be fair, it would have been impossible to predict that the Angels would get to Wakefield in such a consistent fashion. And really, who would have thought a Hampton/Haran matchup would produce 26 runs?

But like the Energizer Bunny, the Fan will plug on and on and on. Here are today's picks:

• Marlins over the Brewers: Can't pick against Josh Johnson. Especially against Bush.
• Dodgers over the Phillies: Great matchup here with Billingsley versus Hamels. Two studs. Here's hoping that Billingsley comes out on top.
• Tigers over the Twins: Another great matchup of Verlander versus Baker. Baker finally pitched a great game last time, but Verlander has been nearly unhittable of late. So let's go with Verlander.
• Mariners over the Rangers: The brain is overruling the heart in that King Felix will be better than the Rangers' Harrison.
• Padres over the Cubs: This is the upset pick of the day. Have no faith in Dempster.
• Houston over Colorado: Wandy Rodriguez is pitching. Here's hoping his big yakker isn't impeded by the thin Colorado air.
• Red Sox over the Angels: When the Fan saw that Penny was pitching, he wanted to pick the Angels. But Ervin Santana is pitching his first game of 2009 so that goes against Rule #4.
• Pirates over the Cardinals: The Cards are scuffling a bit and have lost in Pittsburgh something like eight times in a row. Pujols has to be salivating over facing Karstens, but still...
• Yankees over Blue Jays: Sabathia seems to have turned a corner. He was awesome last time out. The Blue Jays have a tough schedule coming up and it will be interesting to see if they are for real or not.
• Bay Rays over the Indians: Like Shields over Carmona. Like the Bay Rays over the Indians under any matchup.
• Royals over the Orioles: Gil (ga) Meche has had a couple of rough outings. Betting here that he breaks out of it against the Orioles. Though that's a tough call because the Orioles are smoking at the plate.
• Mets over the Giants: Maine hasn't been himself, but the Mets are a better team overall than the Giants.

So that's the rub. Now we'll see what happens.

Yesterday: 9-6
Week: 22-27
Month: 74-74

Two Homers Lost to Replay in the Same Night!

Well, it finally happened. Since the replay rule was put into place on August 10 of last year, ten home run calls have been reviewed. Twice those reviews overturned the original calls. But those calls overturned both changed the call to a homer. No one had lost a homer to this point and then it happened twice within hours. The victims? Andy LaRoche and Ross Gload.

LaRoche, who is quoted in this linked article as saying he predicted he would be the first to lose a homer to the new rule and so he was. But at least he still got a double and at least his team still won the game.

Gload came in for Florida to pinch hit for Hayden Penn. After his homer was overturned to a long foul ball, he struck out. Now, wouldn't that be a bummer! That would be like one of those fake lottery ticket practical jokes.

Ten replays in four months of action since the replay rule was adopted doesn't seem like very many. There were two questionable homers early in the season. One that comes to mind was the Yankees very first game. A post recap of opening day here in the FanDome did question at the time why the homer wasn't reviewed. Maybe the rule isn't being utilized correctly. Any rule that seems sort of random really isn't much of a rule.

Time for a Yard Sale

In what seems to be a unique phenomenon, every May our town in northern Maine has a city-wide yard sale. The "city" is a euphemism as there might be 8,000 people in the entire town. There used to be more before the air force base was closed fifteen years ago. So, anyway, this one weekend a year, the "city" gets jammed with cars as about 25% of the homes in town participate in the sale and people look forward to it all year.

There is no sense attempting to get anywhere in a hurry on yard sale weekend. Cars must maneuver in single lane traffic through congested streets with cars parked all willy-nilly on the sides of the road. It's much worse than the Halloween traffic. About ten years ago, the Fan was carefully attempting to leave the house to go to the golf course. After driving in a zigzag pattern down the block, the brake pad was pushed for a stop sign. Apparently, the person in the car that was following was rubbernecking at the items in people's driveways and didn't see this driver stop. Bang! After thinking briefly about claiming whiplash, the Fan got out of the car only to discover that the person that caused the accident was the Fan's former grandmother-in-law. What are the odds of that?

This year, the Fan is participating for the first time. Got the little sign to tack on the mailbox and everything. The times dictate that some capital is needed to restock the depleted coffers. Wow, is this a lot of work! Everything in the basement, in all the closets, in all the cabinets and under the beds have been sifted through looking for lost treasures, or at least what we hope will be treasures to somebody.

We are selling one of those big TVs that have the DVD and VCR built right in. Man was that heavy to carry down the stairs! We have a bread maker that was a wedding present and has sat in a box unopened for nine years. We have two computers for sale. Don't ask how, but this house has accumulated nine computers over the years. Two at least have to go. Everything that someone might buy is being considered. Dollar signs fill the air. We have steins, we have vases, we have beanie babies, we have three sizes of clothes that no longer fit. We have shoes. It's incredible the stuff we accumulate in a lifetime.

There was a point to this post. Darned if the Fan can remember what it was...Oh yeah! This thought is tied up to the recent speculation about the Red Sox since they have fifteen different starting pitchers. Well, that might be an exaggeration. But they have a lot. This house is stacked with computers. The Red Sox are stacked with starting pitching. Sooner or later, it would seem that the team has to do something about the overload.

Let's count them up: Beckett, Penny, Masterson, Wakefield, Dice-K, Lester, Smoltz, Buchholz, Delcarmen. Well, we are up to nine. Who would go in the yard sale? Penny? It would seem that a couple of those guys can be hidden in the minors or in the bullpen. But you don't sign a Smoltz and then not give him the ball, right? Beckett, Dice-K, Wakefield and Lester aren't going anywhere for a long time and that's four already. That still leaves a couple of guys too many. It would seem a pretty nice problem to have except for one thing, the Red Sox are currently near the bottom in the majors in starter ERA. How did that happen?

Wouldn't it be cool if the major leagues had a yard sale? Instead of having a trade deadline, you could only have a weekend to trade players. Maybe it could be the All Star break since everyone is off anyway. The teams could take all their spare parts to the All Star venue, line them up in designated areas and put signs on them. Instead of dollar signs, the teams could put what they need in return.

Another term for yard sales are, "trash and treasure" sales. In other words, what some people consider extra junk, just as many other people think they are treasures. The same would hold true at the major league yard sale. There would be a Peavy or there could be a Jerry Hairston, Jr. Trash or treasure? Your call.

The Fan will let you know how the sale goes this weekend. It's time to go as there are a few more nooks and crannies to search before giving up for the night.

Game Picks - Wednesday: May 13, 2009

In the immortal words of Bugs Bunny, "Oh Agony...AAAAGOONY." It was a bloodletting. It was a massacre. Never has a day of picks gone so ingloriously. Jurrjens pitches great but the Braves bullpen gave the game away. Purposefully picked Hochever, breaking Rule #4 and paid the price. Foolishly expected Paulino to pitch well. He didn't. Foolishly thought Galarraga was a stud. He couldn't get Mauer out (he hasn't been alone there). The Indians can't be this terrible, can they? Oh man! It was awful. The only bright spots were Micah Owings pitching brilliantly, Hamilton hitting a two-run homer, Parra being better than the Marlins and Zack Duke continuing his fine season.

Okay, the Fan has to turn this around. This is unsettling. Embarrassing. It's time to put on the eye black and pick with determination and fierceness. Here goes:

• Indians over the White Sox: Buehrle has been great lately. Lee has been great lately. When a pitching matchup come up even, go with the team that hits better.
• Mets over the Braves: Reyes versus Niese. When both pitchers are questionable, go with the team that hits better and relieves better.
• Giants over the Nationals: Give Zito credit for turning his career back around. He's been great so far. Nationals are too left-handed and should suffer against the lefty.
• Pirates over the Cardinals: Pineiro has been great, but as Mr. Neyer pointed out, his strikeout rate is too low and sooner or later, luck is going to catch up with him.
• Phillies over the Dodgers: Without Manny, this is a whole different team. Moyer is due for his once a month good start.
• Bay Rays over the Orioles: Niemann was supposed to be the next great arm for the Bay Rays, but he hasn't shown it so far. It's now or never against the Orioles.
• Yankees over the Blue Jays: Richmond has been good for the Blue Jays. How is beyond the Fan to contemplate. Pettitte should win this game.
• Cubs over the Padres: Ted Lilly should have an easy win.
• Marlins over the Brewers: Looper versus Nolasco. A battle of pitchers having difficult seasons. Nolasco is the better talent.
• Texas over the Mariners: Washburn versus McCarthy. McCarthy has been one of the Rangers' better starters. Hamilton is back.
• Twins over the Tigers: Rule #4. Dontrelle Willis has his first start of the year. Want him to do great. Doubt he will.
• Rockies over the Astros: Hampton versus Marquis. Rule #2: Never bet against Marquis.
• Reds over the Diamondbacks: Cueto versus Augenstein. Who the heck is Augenstein??
• Oakland over Kansas City: Bannister has been on a roll, but could the A's be on a hitting roll finally?
• Red Sox over the Angels: If the Angels couldn't win with their best pitcher, how are they going to win with their worst?

Yesterday: 5-10
Week: 13-21
Month: 65-68

Josh Hamilton is Back

Well, yeah, he only went 1-5 and he struck out twice. But he did help wreck what was a great pitching duel between Feldman and Vargas with a two-run homer off of Mark Lowe that helped break the game open.

Texas has a shot at the American League West. Feldman has given them two quality starts in a row, Millwood has been much better than last year and they can still rake with the bats. Having Hamilton back in the middle of the lineup can only help and they probably can't win the division without him.

Impressive Talent Sometimes Demoralizing

Was watching American Idol tonight (oh stop! It's fun and campy and it's the American Dream), and while watching, it's hard not to sympathize for Danny Gokey and Kris Whateverhisnameis. Adam Lambert is one of those once-in-a-lifetime talents who is so far above the others talent-wise, it's not even close. Can't you imagine anyone following Lambert saying, "Oh crap. There's no way I can beat that," before they have to go out and sing? The Fan can relate.

Day after day, the Fan toils away behind the keyboard to write about baseball. Writing is one of the greatest passions in this writer's life. Baseball is too and so the two go together. Before writing each post, a stroll is taken around the Web to look at what is going on. After all, it's not a good idea to write 80 posts a month and not know what is happening out there. The waltz around the Internet always includes a stop at Joe Posnanski's blog. Tonight was no different. After reading two more fabulous posts from the Great Pos, the Fan echoed Gokey and Whateverhisnameis in saying, "Oh crap, there's no way to beat that."

It's not like the Fan was born without a bit of talent. A decade ago, after going back to college in a mid-thirties understanding that slinging wet leather in a tannery sixty hours a week wasn't exactly a life calling, the Fan majored in English and History with an emphasis on Creative Writing. Maine is a big state and a small population (kind of the opposite of a genie's situation). As such, the state, in its wisdom, spread out the university system over several campuses around the state. There are campuses in Portland, Orono, Presque Isle and Fort Kent as well as smaller satellites here and there. Every year, the English professors (not sure if they still do this) send in their students' writing and a panel chooses the best writing in the state. Yup. The Fan was chosen as the University of Maine Writer of the Year.

While that is all well and good and while the Fan has published nine books (it helps to own your own publishing company), when sized up against Joe Posnanski and some other really good writers out there, it's very hard not to feel the "Oh crap" moment. To be sure, it must be the same feeling as when Boise State has to play Michigan in college football. Or any college pitcher who has to pitch against Stephan Strasburg, or any golfer that has to go against Tiger Woods (when he is on) or any forward that has to post up against Lebron James, etc. You get the point.

At least baseball has a 162 game schedule. That means that on any given night, a really bad team can beat a really good team. There really aren't "Oh crap" moments in Major League Baseball because even a guy like Joe Saunders can, for one night, be as good as Greinke. That has to be a lot more comforting than being a writer. There can only be one Shakespeare, or one Joe Posnanski. And while genius is thrilling and amazing. It sure provokes a lot of "Oh crap" moments. Even if this writer wrote 10,000 posts, there would never really be a Joe Saunders moment.

Game Picks - Tuesday: May 12, 2009

Being half right is like kissing your sister. It's very unsatisfying. On the one hand, yesterday's picks included a prediction that Pavano would win. He did. Yesterday's picks also included faith that this was Randy Johnson's "on" start in his season long pattern of being off one start and on the next. Johnson won his 298th victory. Two to go. Just don't pick him to win his next start!

On the other hand, picking Johan Santana should be a lock, but it's not. The Mets seem to choke when he starts and he never gets any run support and the defense behind him seems to play in quicksand. For more details on how that turned out, see the previous post here in the FanDome. Also, the Fan picked up a new rule: Never pick a returning "name" pitcher to win his first time out. Jon Garland made his first start of the year for Arizona. It was a disaster. So that means the next time Dice-K pitches for the Red Sox, or Wang pitches for the Yankees or any returning Angel or Blue Jay starter returns, pick against them.

So let's recap the picking rules we've learned so far: 1. Never pick against Greinke. 2. Never pick against Jason Marquis. 3. Never pick against the Dodgers at home (only applies when Manny is playing) and now we have our fourth rule.

Keeping those in mind, here are today's picks:

• Pirates over the Cardinals: Zack Duke is having a good year and the Pirates are at home. Tony LaRussa will use at least five pitchers. It's a lock.
• Dodgers over the Phillies: Kershaw over Chan Ho Park. Park was brilliant last time, but Kershaw is a stud. Of course, this is post-Manny and the Dodgers could still be in a funk. So this pick is iffy.
• Bay Rays over the Orioles: Sonnanstine has to be better than Hendrickson, right? We'll see.
• Indians over the White Sox: Want to pick the White Sox because the Indians are starting Sowers. But have no faith in the White Sox at this point and only a little more about the Indians.
• Yankees over the Blue Jays: This sounds dumb, picking against Halladay. But A. J. Burnett is going home for his first start back in Toronto. He's got to be a little jacked up about that and is due for a great start.
• Braves over the Mets: Can't pick against Jurrjens at this point. This one is getting close to being a rule.
• Brewers over the Marlins: Several things working against the Marlins in this game. Sanchez is hurt so journeyman, Koronka, was brought up from the minors to pitch. The Brewers are home. Sounds like a losing combination.
• Cubs over the Padres: Sterling matchup of Peavy versus Harden. Harden has been amazing thus far. Got to go with him over Peavy.
• Rangers over the Mariners: For a couple of different reasons. First, Feldman is pitching for the Rangers and he is one of Josh's guys who the Fan now roots for. Secondly, Silva has been given a mercy killing and put on the DL and Jason Vargas is starting in his place for the Mariners. See rule 4 above.
• Tigers over the Twins: Galarraga was pretty bad last time out, but is still having a good year. Like him over Slowey. But this one feels iffy.
• Astros over the Rockies: Everyone is picking the Rockies for this game because Paulino is starting for Houston. But this is the upset pick of the day.
• Reds over the Diamondbacks: Haran is pitching for Colorado, so this seems dumb on the surface. But the Fan's man, Micah Owings is pitching for the Reds and he's a better hitter than anyone on the Rockies.
• Angels over the Red Sox: Have little faith in the Red Sox on the left coast. Weaver is pitching for the Angels and have no confidence in Masterson for the Red Sox. When is the Red Sox superior starting pitching going to start being...you know...superior?
• Royals over the A's: Cahill has been good for the A's, but it's Hochover's first start for the Royals. Wait. Rule #4!? Oh well, have to break the rules once in a while. The Fan wants Hochover to win.
• Nationals over the Giants: Cain is pitching for the Giants, so this looks like another stupid pick. But like the Zimmerman matchup against a weak hitting Giants.

Yesterday: 2-2
Week: 8-11
Month: 60-58

Pavano and Santana - A Conflict of Luck

In the old days--at least before statistics got a little more sophisticated--some old time manager would expectorate into a spittoon and say, "Yep, that Pavano just knows how to win." That same old geezer of a manager would spit again and say, "Now that Santana, he's throws the ball pretty well. But dang it, he just finds a way to lose." Take that same conversation to the golf course after an errant iron shot bounces off a hill and somehow scampers onto the green, and the golfer will throw up his hands and sheepishly say, "Rather be lucky than good."

Carl Pavano is that golfer. He somehow gets the wins no matter how terrible he pitches. Take tonight for example. Pavano pitched six and a third innings. He "scattered" ten hits, giving up "only" four runs to improve his ERA to 6.45. Gavin Floyd pitched for the White Sox and did his best Livan imitation and was worse, giving up eight runs to bring his current ERA to 7.32. So, while Pavano wasn't exactly lights out, at least he didn't give up 14 base runners in five innings like Floyd did.

The win evened Pavano's record to 3-3. He was 4-2 last year with the Yankees despite an ERA of 5.77. So if you combine Pavano's last three years, he is 8-5 despite giving up 57 earned runs in 75 innings. That's a .615 winning percentage if you are keeping score.

Now let's flip over to Johan Santana. In the first inning, Kevin Johnson popped out to center. Then Escobar singled to shortstop. Another old geezer line: "They all count the same in the scorecard." Prado singled to left. At least he got it out of the infield. McCann popped out (it sure is worrisome about his vision!) Two outs. Diaz singles to third (another infield hit!) and Wright throws the ball away allowing a run to score. Kotchman whiffs to end the inning. Santana sure got cuffed around that inning!

The Mets later tie the score and so it's 1-1 going into the seventh. Derek Lowe pops out. Pesky Kevin Johnson singles to center and Santana is pulled for Parnell. Escobar promptly singles. Prado flies out to center. Two outs. McCann comes up and hits a roller to short. Easy out and the third out of the inning, right? Wrong. Reyes messes it up and everybody is safe. Diaz then singles and guess whose run that is? Yup, Santana's. And it's the deciding run. The Braves score more runs on each of the Mets' four relievers to break open the game.

So Santana pitched six and a third (same as Pavano), did not give up an earned run. His ERA actually went down to a surreal 0.78 and he lost. His record is now 4-2. So despite giving up only 6.5 hits per nine innings the last three years, despite a WHIP right around 1 for those three years, his winning percentage over those three years? .614. Pavano's was .615 remember?

Yep. Rather be lucky than good.

Game Picks - Monday: May 11, 2009

Well, a bloodbath was feared and a bloodbath it was. On a Sunday of uncertain matchups, it was possible to be wrong most of the time and that was the case here. It feels really fortunate just to have been correct six times. But the feeling is strong that the picks could have been even more successful simply picking teams out of a hat!

Ah well. Let's get to today's picks. Hopefully, there will be some sanity today. There are only four games being played in the majors today, so the margin for error is teeny teeny.

• Indians over the White Sox: Ugh. Nope, today isn't any better. Gavin Floyd verses Carl Pavano. Both teams are really struggling. The Fan is getting all jiggy wit it and picking Pavano to win two in a row.
• Mets over the Braves: Great matchup here with Johan Santana versus Derek Lowe. The Mets are absolutely fanatical about not giving Santana any run support. And Derek Lowe is a worthy pitcher. Let's go with the best pitcher of the decade.
• Diamondbacks over the Reds: The Reds lost a heartbreaker yesterday and Arroyo has not looked good of late. He goes up against Jon Garland.
• Giants over the Nationals: Randy Johnson is pitching and as his starts have had a perfect symmetry of Jekyll and Hyde, this should be the good start. The start after this one will be the bad one.

That's it. Four games. Please be good. Please!

Yesterday: 6-9
This Week: 6-9
This Month: 58-56

Why It's So Hard to Like National League Baseball - Part 2

There were eight games played in the National League Sunday. In those eight games, 79 pitchers were used. That's only one pitcher away from ten per game. Over in the American League, there were 55 pitchers used in seven games.

In fairness, there were three extra inning games Sunday in the National League, but the longest was eleven innings. Not exactly extra long contests.

Tony LaRussa was again a big player in all this. The Cardinals won a ten inning game today against the Reds to salvage one game in the series. LaRussa used eight pitchers. Eight! And a ninth pitcher was called on to pinch hit (Wellemeyer and he struck out).

The first position of the Cardinals' batting order started with Schumaker. He was Sunday's designated guy for the old "double-switch." That's where a new pitcher is brought in during an inning and a position player is also replaced to favorably allow more at bats before the pitcher's spot in the order has to come up again. Anyway, Schumaker's spot in the batting order featured ten players by the end of the game. Ten!

Think about that. That's ten players a box score enthusiast has to read through before you even get to the second guy on the batting order. And that's twelve guys to sift through just to figure out what Pujols did for the day. Can you imagine what those fans' scorecards looked like?

Oh, and it's not all bad. Micah Owings pinch hit for the Reds in the bottom of the ninth and hit a homer to tie the game and send it into extra innings. How cool is that?

Final Thoughts From the Manny Bombshell

It was a typical Sunday during the baseball season. It was too rainy and gloomy to play golf (course opened yesterday!) and Blogger has this feature where you can follow other blogs, even if they come from sources other than Blogger. Which is pretty magnanimous of them. One of the blogs followed here is Rob Neyer's Sweet Spot. Mr. Neyer's posts are thought provoking if one can overlook the over-reliance at times to a numbers-only way of looking at things. His response to the PED controversy somewhat mirrors the one here. That's why it was odd when it was discovered that a new post was available at his site and once navigation there was complete, a post was read stating that PED users should never make it into the Hall of Fame because of the integrity clause. That was odd, until it was discovered that this fairly misguided post wasn't from Mr. Neyer at all, but from one Preston Gomez. While PG's analysis is rejected as flawed by this writer, a comment from another reader caught the eye. This reader basically stated (in a nutshell) that this PED problem has occurred because Latin players were allowed into the major leagues.

The Fan was quite disturbed by the double dose of sanctimonious thinking. First, Gomez presented the case that saints like Koufax, Mays and others shouldn't have their Hall sullied by the likes of A-Rod and Manny Ramirez. That argument cannot hold up as the Hall is full of flawed characters whose "sins" are widely known and too long to list. The integrity clause has been a joke since the Hall's inception.

But then this commenter put an even more disturbing point of view out there. The problem with his comment was that this was obviously a well-educated person who wrote well and presented his statements effectively. But the racism and stereotypes he presented were distasteful and scary, quite frankly. We may have Obama in the White House. We may have Hispanic and African American managers, but we still have a long way to go to get most of America to believe that "All men are created equal." But it goes beyond that. Forgive a little Bible point of view, but the Word says that, "all men are sinners and fall short of the Glory of God." None of us are perfect, we are all flawed and our only course is forgiveness (when possible).

But the disturbing part of the whole thing is that, though this person was intolerant and ignoble, there is a shard of truth in that a large part of those caught up in this PED problem are Hispanic and specifically from the Dominican Republic. The Fan has quipped rather unpoetical at times about this here in the FanDome, but it's a deep well of a problem that has yet to have a full light shone upon it. We have only seen glimpses of the problem with the firing last year of a Cleveland Indian executive and then this spring with the problems exposed in the Nationals front office.

The undercurrent here is that there has been a major pipeline of ball players that have come from the Dominican Republic. That country, though it has made amazing strides in the last two decades towards a more modern economy and political structure, still has an imbalance of wealth. Those on the less fortunate end often dream of baseball as the Holy Grail of opportunity. And a long line of major leaguers have shown the way.

The unseemly end of that is the exploitation of these players by American executives that has not fully come to light. Be sure that an investigation is ongoing and a few bombshells will be exploded along the way eventually. There is a story here that has yet to be told. Part of that exploitation has been the introduction to these players to substances that will make them stronger, train harder and be better prepared or equipped to compete for major league jobs. Without a full understanding of the current culture of testing, these players are being tripped up on a monthly basis.

Make no mistake, PED use has been a problem on all ends of the race and ethnic spectrum. For every Sammy Sosa, there is a Mark McGwire. But too many of these suspensions turn out to be for players from the Dominican Republic and there is a reason that is happening. The financial windfall of escaping poverty to reach the promised land of MLB is too exciting not to use anything anyone gives you to reach that place.

The heading of this post is a bit misleading. Manny and A-Rod are not in this category. They weren't uneducated kids from a poor country trying to find a way out. Manny is only in the heading because the news about him this week started this thought process.

In this writer's opinion, the first positive test should lead to education and strict and weekly testing. The second positive should lead to the 50 game suspension. There has to be a built in safety net to catch those who have been exploited, misled or mishandled by doctors, trainers and even stores like the GNC.

We all want the game to get clean so that we can move on to other topics, like the game itself. Even those of us who are not upset about what players ingest want to get the game clean just so we can stop having to talk about it. And it seems to be the most fair to aid those who have come to their source of chemical help by Svengalis out there exploiting a pipeline that is all too often ripe for the picking.

Aubrey Huff - No Class

Watching the Yankees lose again to the Orioles. In the bottom of the first, Aubrey Huff hit a three run homer and pulled a totally classless act by mimicking Joba Chamberlain with a fist pump around first and then after crossing the plate.

First of all, the game was early and Chamberlain hadn't done a thing to provoke such a classless act. Second of all, the Yankees can't take that sitting down.

The Fan doesn't like to go for blood, but if Huff doesn't get plunked later in the game, then it will be a disappointment.

The Year's Five Biggest Hitting Surprises

Nearly 20% of the season has now been played and while it's still early, there have been a significant amount of games already played. With that sample size, here are the five biggest batting surprises thus far: Aaron Hill, Carl Crawford, Orlando Hudson, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Jones.

Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill was a good second baseman in 2006 and 2007. He batted .291 both seasons and showed decent pop in 2007 with 47 doubles and 17 homers. Then last year, he got into only 55 games and really seemed to struggle when he did play. His average dropped to .263. Watching his career to date, you had to figure (if he was healthy) that he would hit .280 or better and have an OPS in the .790 range. That seemed consistent with his career path to date.

But Hill leads the league in hits with 52. He is slugging at a .554 clip and he already had 8 homers, six doubles and he's driven in 28. That projects to a season with 250 hits, 40 homers, 30 doubles and 140 RBI. While it's hard to imagine Hill reaching those kinds of numbers, he can be only so-so the rest of the year and still finish with really impressive totals.

Carl Crawford

Carl Crawford has been a really good player for most of his career. He has hit over .300 three times in his career and could be counted on for ten to eighteen homers a season and around 50 stolen bases. Those are pretty impressive numbers. His one flaw was a low On Base Percentage in relation to his Batting Average. With a .295 lifetime Batting Average, you would expect his On Base Percentage to be greater than .332. Because of that, he has only barely scraped above an .800 OPS twice in his career.

Fast forward now to this year. Crawford was coming off his worst year in 2008 where all of his numbers were down. He felt his legs were the problem and worked on grass in the off season instead of on harder surfaces and was determined to keep his legs under him for the full season. And it seems to be paying off as he is having his best season. He is batting .331 with a .397 OBP, by far the best numbers of his career. He has already stolen 21 bases, or four less than all of last year. The only striking number for him has been the lack of power as he only has one homer.

But at his current pace, Crawford projects out to 100 stolen bases, 215 hits, 40 doubles and that would be a really good season!

Orlando Hudson

This season shouldn't really surprise us about Orlando Hudson. He has raised his Batting Average for six straight seasons and hit .302 last season, his first ever over .300. He's always had an above league average On Base Percentage and could be counted on to be around the .350 mark.

This season, Hudson is batting .336 and he is walking more and he already has 11 doubles. But best yet, his OBP is a robust .426 and his OPS is .852. Both numbers are big surprises.

Projecting his season, he would finish (at his current pace) with 55 doubles, 215 hits, 100 walks. That's an awesome season. He could be the free agent signing of the year for the Dodgers. The only surprise so far has been a slow down in his range factor at second. But we'll see where he ends up for season.

Ryan Zimmerman

Ryan Zimmerman came in the major leagues with a lot of hype. He was the next big thing. He was going to be the next superstar. Somewhere along the way in his first full three season, he was only a little above average. Nothing spectacular. Nothing earth shattering. He hit over 20 homers twice. He drove in over 100 once. But a career .OPS of a little over .800 seemed a bit of a let down.

Perhaps 2009 is his coming out party. It could be when he became the superstar predicted four years ago when he first came to the bigs. He's batting .336 and his OPS is currently at .943. If he continues at this pace for the season, he'll end up with 208 hits, 30 homers and 55 doubles. It would be nice to see him develop a little more patience at the plate, but overlooking that one thing, Mr. Zimmerman has possibly arrived.

Adam Jones

Last year was Adam Jones' first full season in the big leagues. The Orioles' outfielder didn't do anything but suggest that he was a marginal talent. He batted .270, had a .311 OBP and a .400 Slugging Percentage. A .711 OPS wasn't all that exciting.

Zoom ahead to 2009. Jones is batting .353 after 20% of the season, has a .415 OBP and an unreal OPS of 1.044! His season projects out to 205 hits, 105 RBI, 50 walks, 30 homers and 62 doubles. He's already scored 32 runs and is on pace to score 160! Obviously, those numbers seem hard for him to reach, but like Aaron Hill above, even if he finishes so so the rest of the season, he will shatter last year's stats without any problem at all.

Game Picks - Sunday: May 10, 2009

It was a joyless day on Saturday and the picks took a semi-beating. Greinke pitched his heart out but lost to Joe Saunders, who pitched his heart out. The Yankees looked abominable. The Pirates' best pitcher got cuffed. King Felix was mashed. Millwood was great, but the Rangers uncharacteristicly didn't score. Oh well. In the words of Clarisse, "There's always tomorrow..."

Today's picks are fraught with tough and touchie match ups. The Fan will tenderly walk through the mine field:

• Phillies over the Braves: Myers over Kawakami. This pick has danger written all over it.
• Tigers over the Indians: Are the Indians even more frustrating than the Yankees? All that talent? Porcello goes for the Tigers. Young, inconsistent. He pitches against Reyes, who doesn't look to stay in the rotation much longer for Cleveland.
• Mets over the Pirates: Livan over Snell. Can it be? Can Livan win two in a row? Hard to pick against the Mets right now as they are really on a roll. Even Sheffield had two hits yesterday.
• Reds over the Cardinals: Can the Reds really sweep? Can Volquez throw a third great game in a row? So far, all of these picks could go wrong. Ugh!
• Yankees over the Orioles: Because the Fan is stubborn and a Chamberlain fan. [sigh]
• Padres over Houston: Oswalt hasn't looked like Oswalt. Geer was great last time out. Berkman won't be in the lineup. Crapshoot city again...
• Cubs over the Brewers: Counting on Sean Marshall to save the Cubbies from a sweep? Oh boy.
• Rangers over the White Sox: Padilla verses Colon? Anything can happen. Man, this is hard today.
• Twins over the Mariners: Yes, Bedard is pitching. But Mauer is batting .500 since his return with three homers and a gazillion runs scored by the Twins. But then again, Bedard has the stuff to shut them down. Egads!
• Marlins over the Rockies: Cook is one of the better pitchers for Colorado, but Volstad shouldn't have two bad starts in a row, should he? Man oh man!
• Royals over the Angels: Loux is pitching for the Angels? Thinking that will put the Angels in the toilet. Davies always hangs tough. But the Fan has been burned all year by no-name pitchers. Sheesh.
• Oakland over the Blue Jays: Braden versus Cecil in another battle of AAA pitchers. Does this ever end?
• Giants over the Dodgers: Lincecum. An ace at last! And against the suckier Weaver, who happened to pitch lights out last time! Oy! But the Manny funk continues.
• Nationals over the Diamondbacks: Because the Nationals seem like the better team right now. Is that possible?
• Bay Rays over the Red Sox: Beckett has been in the bucket and Garza has been awesome. But still. Is the Fan nuts? Apparently. Longoria has been other-worldly.

This could be a disaster.

Yesterday: 7-8
Last Week: 56-47

Game Picks - Saturday: May 9, 2009

Now that was fun. Nearly everything predicted in this space yesterday came to pass. Baker was showing signs of getting it together--he pitches a shutout. A-Rod will give a boost to the Yankees--He hits a three run homer. Cueto pitched well his last time out--seven innings of one-run ball. Verlander would be just a bit tougher than Lee--he was, with a lot of help from Granderson's amazing catch. "Wandy is the man"--he pitched a shutout. "Contreras is pitching for the White Sox, enough said"--he stunk again. "Nolasco is due for a good game"--he was and had one. "Washington has been raking and the Diamondbacks are the anti-rakers"--the Nationals won. Awesome!

Let's see if we can keep this ball rolling with Saturday's picks:

• Pirates over the Mets: One of the few picks from yesterday that was wrong. But Maholm is pitching for the Pirates. Like him over Maine.
• Braves over the Phillies: Vasquez has really responded to his situation in Atlanta. Like him here against Blanton.
• Dodgers over the Giants: Stults was terrible his last time out. He should rebound against the Giants.
• Bay Rays over the Red Sox: This one feels stupid on the up and up, but Kazmir should tie up Ortiz and Drew.
• Oakland over Toronto: In a battle of young pitchers, like Gallagher over Tallet.
• Padres over Houston: Never pick Moehler at this point.
• Brewers over the Cubs: Gallardo has been great. Dempster has not been great.
• Yankees over the Orioles: Will take Hughes over Eaton on any given day.
• Indians over the Tigers: Carmona showed some good signs last time out. Like him over Jackson.
• Rangers over the White Sox: Is the Fan really picking Millwood to win. Crazy! And against John Danks? Nuts?
• Reds over the Cardinals: Harang is due for a good start. Lohse was beat up last time out and doesn't look healthy to this viewer.
• Mariners over the Twins: King Felix over Liriano. Two years ago, this would have been really exciting. Now, Liriano looks ordinary.
• Marlins over the Rockies: Josh Johnson has become one of the best pitchers in the league.
• Nationals over the Diamondbacks: Again!? Like this Lannon kid.
• Royals over the Angels: Will not pick against Greinke until he falters. He is the feel good story of the year.

Yesterday: 12-3
Week: 49-39

The White Sox Look Creaky

It could be just a rough patch in a long season, or it could just well be the end of a pretty decent run for the Chicago White Sox. They simply look old and creaky at this point. They were completely dominated by a young Matt Harrison and lamely went down to the Rangers, 6-0. The team has now lost six of its last ten.

Looking quickly at the roster, seven of their twelve pitchers were born in the 70s:

• Mark Buehrle - 30
• D. J. Carrasco - 32
• Bartolo Colon - 36
• Jose Contreras - 38 (supposedly)
• Octavio Dotel - 36
• Scott Linebrink - 32
• Matt Thornton - 32

Both of their catchers are older:

• Corky Miller - 33
• A. J. Pierzynski - 32

Konerko is thirty-two. Two thirds of their outfield is older. Dye is 35 and Podsednik is 33. And then there is Jim Thome, who is now 39. The Fan should have included him on the "should retire" list as he is currently batting .205 with an OPS of .729. Last year, Thome struck out 29% of his official At Bats. His number this year is 38%. That's not a good trend.

It seems this team is going to need an infusion of some sort as they just seem out of gas as currently constructed.

Alex Rodriguez Makes an Immediate Impact

Literally. On his first pitch of the 2009 season, Alex Rodriguez hit a three run blast which was the difference on a night that C. C. Sabathia pitched like a $100+ million dollar pitcher. True, it was only the Orioles, and true, it's only one game. But Joe Girardi had to be breathing a little easier than in recent times.

Love him or hate him, Alex Rodriguez makes a difference for the Yankees. He has been sorely missed while he was away. The Yankees used three players at third while A-Rod was out: Cody Ransom, Angel Berroa and Ramiro Pena. Between the three, they are a combined 23 for 105 with 12 runs scored and 10 RBI. They hit eight doubles and no other extra base hits. They walked only 7 times. Between the three, they had an OPS around .550. So, yeah, there was a big hole in the lineup.

And with Posada's hot bat sitting on the disabled list, Teixeira mired in a season long slump and Swisher falling back to his true self (and Nady out for who knows how long), there just wasn't enough lumber to compensate for a struggling pitching staff. A-Rod will give Teixeira some protection now and give them the boost needed and take some of the pressure off of rest of the lineup.

As for Sabathia, he was brilliant. His fastball and change up were consistently in the strike zone and it looked like he was really comfortable with Cervelli behind the plate. He pitched with better rhythm than of late and was dominant. Even the four hits he gave up in his complete game shutout were doinkers.

The rotation is showing a little sign of life for the Yankees. If Sabathia becomes the anchor as expected, Pettitte continues to keep the team in the game (if not spectacularly), Chamberlain continues to grow and Hughes pitches well most of the time, this rotation will be okay. Burnett has had a few rough outings lately though.

The bullpen still looks to be a problem. Girardi keeps running Veras out there and he keeps getting knocked around. Rivera has not been dominant thus far and only Phil Coke seems to be doing his job on a regular basis. It's no wonder that Sabathia stayed out there all nine innings.

It won't be lost on major league fans that Manny Ramirez checks out for fifty days at the same time that Alex Rodriguez checks in. But if you ask Yankee fans and Joe Girardi, it's sure to be a welcome relief to have him back.

Bob Melvin Fired as Diamondbacks' Manager

It's amazing how a manager goes from a hero to a goat in just two years. In 2007, Melvin was a hero as the Diamondbacks made a surprising run to glory. This year, after a poor start, the same manager could no longer get the job done. Okay, if you say so.

The Team's owner started the proceedings by speaking on local radio and stating that the team had made some mistakes in personnel and in how they pick the bullpen and the players. Then why weren't the people in the front office fired instead of the manager?

While the Diamondbacks have been mired in a team slump for most of the year, Melvin can hardly be blamed for that. He just didn't have the horses he needed to win the race. Not having Webb all season didn't help either. Not signing Randy Johnson didn't help either.

Speaking of not signing Randy Johnson, do you know what this whole deal smells like? It smells like a cost cutting measure. Melvin was expensive. The Fan thinks the bottom line is the bottom line here. And Bob Melvin was the sacrificial lamb...errr...goat.

Game Picks - Friday: May 8, 2009

It's not fair! It's not fair! Somebody should let people picking games know that a major player is going to be suspended and a manager is going to be fired before picks are made! Waaah! Oh well, it wasn't a total loss as Micah Owings picked up a win and hit a triple. Life could be worse. Let's see what screwy happenings go on today.

Friday's Picks:

• Phillies over the Braves: Cole Hamels over Reyes for the Braves. It seems that the NL East will feature a bunch of leap-frogging with different teams beating up on different teams.
• Yankees over the Orioles: Because, spammit! The stupid team has to win some time! Plus A-Rod is back. No matter what he does, he'll provide more protection for Teixeira. Watch for Tex to get hot.
• Tigers over the Indians: This is a tough matchup with Verlander against Lee. Advantage with Verlander and power versus Lee with guile.
• Reds over the Cardinals: Cueto versus Pineiro. Depends on which Cueto shows up. But he was dominant last time. Can he do it twice in a row?
• Pirates over the Mets: Yeah, yeah. This one looks stupid. But the Mets are coming off an emotional series with the Phillies and they have Niese pitching for them. Feel a loss in the bones.
• Bay Rays over the Red Sox: Like Shields over Penny in this one.
• Astros over the Padres: Wandy is the man.
• Brewers over the Cubs: This one looks stupid as well, but the Cubs are starting an unknown Randy Wells, just called up from AAA.
• Twins over the Mariners: Baker has been showing signs of recapturing his mojo from last year. It's time for him to win.
• Rangers over the White Sox: Contreras is pitching for the White Sox. Enough said. When is Josh Hamilton coming back?
• Marlins over the Rockies: Nolasco has to come out of his funk some time. He's too good a pitcher.
• Nationals over the Diamondbacks: The Nationals have been raking of late and put a comeback hurt on the Dodgers last night. Down six, they won by scoring nine runs. Diamondbacks have been the anti-rakers.
• Royals over the Angels: Gil (ga) Meche is due for a win and the Angels are starting Martin. This one looks good.
• Oakland over Toronto: Have to root for a pitcher named Outman (who pitched well last time out).
• Giants over the Dodgers: The Dodgers' fifty game funk begins. Zito has been pitching well for the Giants.

Yesterday: 7-8
This week: 37-36

Has Anyone Noticed...

Has anyone noticed that:

- Gregg Zaun went three for three tonight and still isn't batting over .200?

- Arthur Rhodes hasn't given up a run yet this season? Yup, that same Arthur Rhodes.

- Jason Bay hit a double and a homer in the same inning and drove in four runs in the 12 run Red Sox inning?

- Emilio Bonifacio of the Marlins is batting a buck, eighty-five in May and is down to .250 for the season and is still leading off every game for Florida?

- Ryan Franklin has nine saves already? Oh yeah, he hasn't given up a run yet this season either.

- Brian Bannister is 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA after being recalled from the minors?

- Ken Griffey, Jr. has more walks this season than hits?

- The Mariners have lost seven of their last ten games?

- Ichiro Suzuki has as many strikeouts as runs scored this season?

- Benji Molina of the Giants has already driven in 27 runs?

- Jason Marquis went 0-2 Thursday night and is still batting over .300?

- Brian Giles has been leading off for the Padres and is batting .164?

- Robinson Cano of the Yankees has only one hit in his last 25 At Bats?

- Nick Punto of the Twins is batting .190 but still gets on ESPN's Web Gems every night?

- Jason Bay has as many RBI as David Ortiz and J. D. Drew combined?

- Carlos Beltran is batting .382?

- Miguel Tejada finally hit his first homer of the season Thursday? Wonder where all that power went.

- Mark Buehrle is 5-0?

- Mariano Rivera has already given up as many homers (4) this year as he did in all of 2007 and 2008?

- Bobby Abreu is batting .340 and is 11 for 11 in stolen base attempts?

Oh, and if anyone wondered whether the Dodgers would feel sorry for themselves losing Manny Ramirez for 50 games, they scored six runs in the first inning Thursday night.

A Banny of Manny - The Fans Stuck in the Fanny

Of course everyone now has heard the news about Manny Ramirez. In case you have been in a cave or something, Manny Ramirez has been banned for fifty games for failing a drug test. He claims that his doctor prescribed something that contained a banned substance. Whether you want to believe that or not, it's up to you. Here in the FanDome, a person's word is believed until proof is offered otherwise.

One emotion that overrides all others is disappointment. There is not disappointment that another great player has been busted for a banned substance. The Fan has said it before and will say it again: Who the heck cares what players are ingesting into their systems. The Fan doesn't give a flying crap. What is disappointing is that we the fans will be deprived of watching Manny Ramirez for the next two months. That's what is so hard to take.

Of course the bulk of the big time writers are stepping all over themselves to get on their sanctimonious soapbox. Check out this Jeff Passan piece of crap. Yeah, Jeff, that's what we want, to never see the best players in baseball again for what most fans consider a gray area. Well, at least in Manny's case, most people already disrespect him already, so this will just add to the ammunition.

One of the things that has made Manny so different from all other players is that there is no BS about him. He doesn't go by any other drummer but the one he hears in his own head. So there is no reason really to disbelieve him. That's also why J. C. Romero is believable. And the question to be asked is if any rules that are so set in stone infallible? It is the same kind of thinking that forces judges to throw away a good professor for ten years for a certain number of pot plants in his basement while a rapist gets five years.

What if Romero and Ramirez are telling the truth? What if GNC sold Romero something that caused him to fail the test? What if Manny's doctor blew it by not being thorough enough to investigate the list of banned substances? Do they deserve the full fifty days? Do they deserve the time when A-Rod admits to using but gets nothing because it was before 2004...supposedly?

The whole thing smells. The Fan doesn't want Manny to be any more branded than he already is. The guy has been a blast to watch and to follow. The Fan has rooted against him for most of his career, but has smiled all along the way. Now, either because of a doctor error, or because of rigid and unworkable rules, it won't be until July that we can again find out what Manny will do next.

The Fan hopes Congress, all the sanctimonious writers and the commissioner are happy.

Game Picks - Thursday: May 7, 2009

After a week of feeling dumb, last night's success did a lot to bring back the good feelings. Imagine picking Pavano to beat the Red Sox and getting it right! Imagine picking Sidney Ponson to win and him winning! How lucky can a picker get? The only blemishes on the scorecard are the amazingly bad Yankees, Albert Pujols and Duncan doing in Maholm and not going with the gut on Randy Johnson sticking with his every other start Jekyll and Hyde routine.

Tonight's picks:

• Atlanta over Florida: Like Jurrjens over Sanchez. Garrett Anderson had three RBI last night, his first three of the season. The Fan is like the anti-jinx. Whenever a player is bad-mouthed in the FanDome, they have a great game.
• Cardinals over the Pirates: Wellemeyer should get back on track here. Hope Rick Ankiel is going to be okay.
• Mariners over the Royals: As much as the Fan is rooting for Bannister, Washburn is the smarter pick.
• Rockies over the Giants: Not picking against Marquis until further notice. He has a tough matchup against Cain though. Hmm...
• Diamondbacks over the Padres: Dan Haran has been hot of late. Got to go with the hot hand.
• Texas over Oakland: McCarthy over Cahill. Cahill is young and inexperienced but growing. McCarthy is one of the Rangers' better pitchers. Texas out hits the A's.
• Twins over the Orioles: This one is iffy. Bergesen has been very good for the Orioles and Perkins has been erratic for the Twins. Oh well, sticking with the gut on this one.
• Yankees over the Bay Rays: Well, they still have to win some time! Pettitte is due for a win.
• Mets over the Phillies: The Mets got an emotional lift by Santana last night. Pelfrey will build on it and the Mets will jump all over Moyer.
• Reds over the Brewers: Favorite player Micah Owings against Looper who hasn't been good this year.
• Red Sox over Indians: Wakefield is pitching. Enough said.
• Cubs over the Astros: Will take Lilly over Ortiz any day of the week.
• Tigers over the White Sox: Galaragga has been great so far for the Tigers and Buehrle has been up and down. The White Sox don't seem that good overall.
• Angels over the Blue Jays: Weaver is the only healthy Angels' starter so you have to think their one regular pitcher would win over Blue Jay and Ray. Though Blue Jay Ray is kind of catchy.
• Dodgers over the Nationals: Zimmerman has been great for the Nationals, but the Fan can't pick against the Dodgers until they finally lose at home.

Yesterday: 10-4 Week: 30-28

Santana Won't Be Denied

If there is a tougher cookie in all of baseball than Johan Santana, it's hard to imagine. From the set in his eyes to his demeanor and to his results, his body language and his work suggest that the pitcher refuses to be beaten. The Mets may be a mess, but Santana is a rock.

The Fan apologizes for all this hyperbole, but in Santana's case, it really isn't. He has now made six starts for the Mets (including Wednesday night) and has given up four earned runs. Amazingly, he's only won four of those starts. In his second start of the year, he was nearly unhittable giving up only two hits in seven innings against the Marlins and he struck out 13. But errors by Murphy and Castillo cost him two unearned runs and he lost to Josh Johnson, the Marlins' ace.

In his fifth start of the season, he again faced Josh Johnson and gave up a season high two earned runs. But he left the game with a one run lead after seven strong innings. Putz blew the game in the eighth, costing Santana the victory. But Wednesday night against the Phillies, he was amazing.

He was matched up with Chan Ho Park in a matchup that seemed to all be in Santana's favor. But Park pitched like a man fighting for his rotation spot and one hit the Mets through six innings, matching Santana, who had only given up two hits. But the Phillies lifted Park after the sixth and things got ugly in the field for the Phillies. The only run of the game scored on an air mail throw by Felix Pie. Scott Ayre was the hard luck loser.

So now, after six starts, Santana has pitched 39.2 innings. He's only given up 24 hits and twelve walks. His WHIP is well under 1, which is not unusual for Santana as he has done that three times already in his career. He's already struck out 54 batters. Heck, that's only a 12.5 strike out per nine innings and a 4.5 to 1 strike out to walk ratio. Pretty good huh?

The Fan is willing to admit that he was wrong about Santana going to the Yankees last year. The Fan felt at the time that the price was too high, giving up top talent AND having to sign a long term deal with the pitcher. Maybe the price was too high and Sabathia was the better way to go since they still spent the money and kept the prospects. But even so, looking at the current Yankee situation, Santana would be that nice horse you need every fifth day. Sabathia was a warrior for the Brewers down the stretch last year, but he's had a rough start. Santana has never had a rough start. He's just simply one of the best in the game and has been for years.

Santana is now an amazing 113-52 in his career, a .684 winning percentage. He hasn't missed a start in six years. He's won the ERA title three times. He's led the league in strike outs three times. He's got a lifetime WHIP of 1.099. He's struck out 9.3 batters per nine innings for his career.

He has just been amazing and he's not a big guy. He's only six foot and 189 pounds. Yet, he has the will of a ten footer and he is ferocious. For those of us able to watch his starts via the magic of today's media, enjoy. They don't come any better than Johan Santana.

Game Picks - Wednesday: May 6, 2009

Another crappy day of picking games! Ugh! Livan pitched a great game. What!? The Rockies couldn't figure out Josh Geer. Who!? The A's couldn't figure out Shane Loux. Who!? The guy with the lifetime 5.72 ERA? Wainwright sucked even more than Brett Myers? Porcello pitched like a pro and Blackburn pitched like a rookie. Come on! The Red Sox beat the Yankees....AGAIN! And the Fan's favorite, Washington and Houston played ten innings, tied 10-10 and had the game suspended by rain. So that pick won't even be known until July. Amazing.

All you can do is keep on trying. So full of pluck against bad luck, here are today's picks:

• Twins over the Orioles: Hendrickson has been terrible for the Orioles. The way things are going, he'll throw a no-hitter tonight.
• Yankees over the Bay Rays: Burnett will right the ship. Right? Right? Oh man...
• Mets over the Phillies: Santana has to be better than Chan Ho Park, right?
• Brewers over the Reds: Milwaukee is on a roll. Arroyo has numb fingers. This sounds right.
• Braves over the Marlins: Derek Lowe should beat Graham Taylor. But if the Braves keep batting Garrett Anderson cleanup... [sigh]
• Indians over the Red Sox: This is the upset pick of the day. Not only are the Indians going to beat the Red Sox, but Pavano is going to get the win. The Fan must be off his John Rocker.
• Cubs over the Astros: The heart wants to go with Mike Hampton for the Astros, but the head says Harden will out pitch him.
• Royals over the Mariners: It's becoming sad how the success of the Mariners is becoming tied to whether Griffey DHes or Sweeney. Wait, did the Fan just pick Sidney Ponson to win? Sheesh.
• Pirates over the Cardinals: Have immense confidence in Zack Duke this year. Boggs has been great, but the Fan isn't feeling it.
• Giants over the Rockies: Randy Johnson hasn't thrown back-to-back strong games yet this year. He's great, he stinks, he's great, he stinks. Uh oh, he was great last time. But the Rockies can't hit. We'll see.
• Diamondbacks over the Padres: Great pitching matchup of Garland against Peavy. Garland should win.
• Blue Jays over the Angels: Never bet against Halladay.
• Rangers over the A's: Feldman should be better than Giese. If both stink, Rangers hit more than the A's.
• Dodgers over the Nationals: The Dodgers are 12-0 at home this year. Make that 13-0. Please.

Yesterday: 5-9. Week: 20-24

A Post on Coaches

Was reading the latest post from the great Joe Posnanski about cycles and the Great Pos mentioned Rich Gedman, the former Boston Red Sox catcher. The great thing about reading great writers is that they promote thought and the first thought concerning Gedman was that he was once a great catcher who seemed to go down the tubes due to bad coaching. Coaching in the major leagues is hardly ever mentioned. We all hear about the manager but seldom about coaches. Some seem to be brilliant and other just seem to cause more harm than good. Let's see where this post goes from here.

Let's go back to Rich Gedman. Gedman was a Worcester, Massachusetts native that became a free agent amateur, something you don't see very often. He made his debut with the Red Sox at the age of 21 in 1980. He came in second in Rookie of the Year voting in 1981 as he batted .288. He regressed a bit in 1982 but came back strong in 1983, batting .294. He was a platoon catcher those first three years but in 1984, he became the full time catcher and though his average went down a bit, he hit 24 homers and posted a respectable .818 OPS. He was even better the following year (1985) when he made the All Star team and posted his career best .846 OPS to go along with a .295 Batting average. Then the Red Sox hired Walter Hriniak as its batting coach.

Hriniak was a disciple of the great Charlie Lau, who is often credited with making George Brett the kind of hitter he became with the Kansas City Royals. Lau's theories had to do with staying back in the stance with all the weight on the back foot and exploding into the pitch. It is certainly hard to know if Lau made Brett or if Brett made Brett, but Lau was the hitting guru of the period and as baseball is trendy by rule (look how many pitchers now throw the splitter), teams were scouring the land for Lau disciples. Walter Hriniak was one of those and the Red Sox turned to him.

Ted Williams hated what Hriniak taught. Williams felt that Hriniak's teaching robbed players of their power especially by taking the upper hand off the bat at the end of the swing and trying to hit everything up the middle. In fairness, Wade Boggs and Dwight Evans, two pretty darned good hitters gave Hriniak credit for their success and participated in Hriniak's book on the the subject. Gedman did too, which is amazing as Hriniak probably ruined his career.

The Fan watched all the Red Sox games back then. It was the early days of cable and we in New Hampshire got to see all of the Red Sox games on Channel 38 (pre-NESN days). Gedman always seemed to be an aggressive hitter with a fluid and easy swing. But in 1986, things changed. And the Fan noticed. Gedman's swings began to look like practice swings where he was thinking more about the mechanics of the thing instead of letting it happen. His average fell to .258 and his OPS dropped .107 points.

It got worse from there as Gedman never hit again above .212! And he was done as an effective major league player. The Fan has always thought to this day that Hriniak ruined Rich Gedman.

Jeff Pearlman wrote a book about the 1986 Mets called, "The Bad Guys Won." The book also has a ridiculously long subtitle that won't be repeated here. The book was hugely entertaining. For us to stay on point for this post, one of the assertions Pearlman made in the book was that Mel Stottlemyer, one of the most revered men in baseball, tinkered with Doc Gooden and lessened his effectiveness. According to Pearlman, despite the amazing season Gooden had in 1985, Stottlemyer, his pitching coach didn't like his release point and his arm angle and worked on them.

Pearlman's report is backed up by circumstantial evidence. Gooden gained more than a run a game on his ERA and was not as dominant a strikeout pitcher and never was again. But can Gooden's loss of "stuff" be blamed on Stottlemyer or on drugs or simply on the fact that Gooden was required to throw so many pitches so early in his career? Who knows.

A recent blog post (might have been Buster Olney) was discussing the problems Oliver Perez was having with the Mets. One of the suggestions the post mentioned as a possibility was the Mets bringing back deposed pitching coach, Rick Peterson, because he was regarded as the reason why Perez had so much success in 2007. The suggestion was that Perez flourished under Peterson and maybe Peterson could get Perez back to that place.

Many of the Dodgers young hitters credit Don Mattingly for their development. Most point to the development of Kemp and Ethier and point to Donny Baseball.

The Fan thinks that coaches are a lot like managers. They get more credit than they probably deserve and more blame than they deserve. There are good ones and there are bad ones. Most are probably paid pretty well and have a pretty good life. But they are one of the overlooked aspects of the game. They work with infielders, outfielders, hitters, pitchers. They throw batting practice or spend countless hours hitting fungos to guys on the field. But they are hardly talked about.

Here are a couple of suggestions to fix that. How about a player-based vote on the game's best coaches? The players (and managers) could vote and select the Coach of the Year. How about if those same players and managers voted for coaches for the All Star game instead of having a bunch of managers filling out the All Star coaching staff?

It just seems right that more "ink" be given this bunch of the major leagues' silent staff. Some of us Fans would like to know more about who is good and who is not.

An Apology to Jon Gibbons

In a recent post extolling the virtues of Cito Gaston, the Fan busted on Jon Gibbons as "the fake war hero." The memory was faulty and that designation belonged to Tim Johnson, who was caught lying about his Vietnam experience and was fired as the Blue Jays' manager. The Fan humbly and sincerely apologizes to Jon Gibbons.

Game Picks - Tuesday: May 5, 2009

Several lessens were learned from yesterday's games. First, Greinke is an animal and until further notice, never pick against him. Duh! Secondly, don't pick against the Dodgers at home. Duh. And last but not least, closers are hell on prognosticators. Grrrrrr...

Here are today's picks:

• Houston over Washington: Oswalt should prevail in this game. The Nationals have a good line up, but Houston is facing the weaker part of the Nationals' rotation.
• Cleveland over Toronto: The Indians are heating up and Toronto is starting to see that Hill and Scutaro can't keep up this pace forever.
• Giants over the Cubs: It's hard to pick against Sean Marshall, who has been very good, but Lincecum has been too dominant lately.
• Bay Rays over Orioles: Betting that Garza will continue his hot pitching.
• Mariners over the Rangers: Bedard seems a natural over Padilla.
• Brewers over the Pirates: It's hard to pick Suppon to win a game but the Brewers have been hot and Snell has been the least successful Pirate pitcher.
• Twins over the Tigers: Porcello will have his good moments, but the Twins should get to him tonight.
• Yankees over the Red Sox: The Yankees are due to win one of these games. Beckett has been struggling and Chamberlain is coming off a good game.
• Braves over the Mets: Livan Hernandez is pitching for the Mets. Enough said.
• Marlins over the Reds: In the best pitching matchup of the day, Volstad goes for the Marlins and Volquez for the Reds. The Fan will be watching this one.
• Royals over the White Sox: Holy cow, the White Sox are an OLD team. Davies should win.
• Cardinals over the Phillies: Like Wainwright over Myers.
• Rockies over the Padres: Only because the Fan knows who Cook is for the Rockies but has no idea who Geer is for the Padres.
• Oakland over the Angels: The Fan likes this Braden kid. He's become a box score favorite.
• Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Please refer to the opening paragraph of this post.

Yesterday: 6-9. Week: 15-15

Cito Gaston is the Man

Cito Gaston is once again proving he is one of the game's premier managers no matter what happens the rest of the season. And the question begs to be asked: What the heck were all those teams thinking when they passed him up for eleven years? The Blue Jays are in first place in a division where their names weren't mentioned in any forecasts before the season. We heard it over and over, there are three top teams in the American League East. Well, there are four. And only one of them has Cito Gaston.

There was a time when the Fan did not appreciate Gaston. Living in New Hampshire at the time, the only games we got on television were CBC (Canadian Broadcast Channel) games, mostly Toronto, but sometimes the Expos. There was a gigantic obstacle in ever warming up to that team in the 90s: Tommy Hutton. Hutton, now one of the Marlins' color analysts, was the smarmiest, homiest announcers in the history of the game. He gushed so much about the Blue Jays during telecasts that it was impossible not to root against them.

But you know what? Those teams were fantastic. You can give Gaston credit, but the front office built the team and they had it all--good pitching, great relievers, speed, power, high on-base percentage. It was an awesome team. Henke and then Duane Ward were dominant closers. The starters were warriors (Hentgen, Stottlemyer, Steib, Morris, Key and throw in a little David Cone, Al Leiter, David Wells). Plus they had Joe Carter, Jon Olerud and Robbie Alomar, all in their primes. Dave Winfield was the DH for the first championship and Paul Molitor the second. Two Hall of Famers.

The year after the second championship, the strike shut baseball down and the Blue Jays never recaptured the magic. Three years later, Gaston was fired. What!? The man won two championships! Surely someone else would have hired him after that, right? Please don't call me Shirley. But no one did. Why?

There were dozens of vacancies in the eleven years since Gaston last managed the Blue Jays. What happened to prevent him from getting jobs? Was he a victim of what Joe Torre went through where he was never given credit for winning with great teams? Was it because of his skin color? What was the deal? He wasn't a better manager than Lee Elia, who had two disastrous chances? He wasn't better than Bruce Kimm or Clint Hurdle or any brother named Lachemann?

It was a grave injustice, whatever the reason was. Somebody should have given him the reins and nobody did. Finally, when the fake war hero, Jon Gibbons lost the team, the Blue Jays undid a lot of wrongs and hired Gaston back. And look what he's done. He took over the Blue Jays last year and finished the season, 51-37 and now he has the Blue Jays flying with an 18-9 record. And that record is with three fifths of his starting rotation on the shelf with injuries.

It still seems hard to imagine that the Blue Jays can keep up this pace. Marco Scutaro isn't going to finish with a .400 OBP like he has now. Aaron Hill isn't going to finish with a 150 OPS+ like he has now. Sooner or later, the starting pitching will show cracks of inexperience. But it doesn't matter. Cito Gaston has shown that he can manage with the best of them.

Players Who Should Retire - Special Edition

After today's posts, it was hoped that the whole "Guys who should retire" topic would be over. But one guy who was left off the list on purpose forced one more post on the subject. That guy? Jason Varitek.

The Fan prattled on quite extensively during the off season on how Varitek wasn't wanted nor worth the kind of money he received last year. But then the Red Sox went ahead and signed him at a fairly low-ball price when Varitek really didn't have any other options.

The Fan stayed fairly quiet on the topic because he started off fairly decently and because the Red Sox Nation is a pretty aggressive bunch and the Fan didn't want to be hung in effigy. But after today, the Fan can't keep quiet on the subject any more, and not just because of Carl Crawford.

First, let the Fan state for the record that a stolen base can be blamed just as much on the pitcher as on the catcher. If the pitcher is too slow to home, then that gives the catcher virtually no chance to catch the runner. Watching the game today, it was obvious that some of Crawford's steals were on the pitcher. But Crawford stole six bases, and on some of those, Varitek had a chance to get him and didn't.

But even that is not the full story. The Bay Rays stole eight bases in the game including Crawford's six. One of the thefts was by the Bay Rays' catcher, his first stolen base of the season. Varitek didn't throw any of them out. That's 0-8. Plus he made a throwing error.

But even that is not the full story. Varitek went 0-3 with two strikeouts. And so in his last two games played, Varitek is 1-7 with four strikeouts. The prediction here is that Varitek, though batting at .239 for the season currently, will end up around the .220 mark or lower.

But even that is not the full story. The Red Sox starting pitching was supposed to be their big strength and so far, the starters are all struggling, except for Tim Wakefield, who, of course, Varitek doesn't catch. He is supposed to be so good with pitchers calling a game. If he gets that kind of credit when they do well, doesn't he deserve the same kind of credit when they don't?

As for Carl Crawford, he tied a modern day record for stolen bases in a game with his six. He joined Otis Nixon (6/16/1991) and Eric Young (6/30/1996) at the top of the modern day list. If you include the dead ball era, Eddie Collins did it twice in 1912 (ten days apart!). But if you go back even farther, George Gore and Billy Hamilton stole seven in a game in the 1800s. Gore's was the earliest, occurring on June 25, 1881. Egads! Now a Gore will claim he invented the stolen base!

Game Picks - Monday: May 4, 2009

Had a decent Sunday picking games. It would have been even better if Oakland hadn't blown two leads and lost in extra innings and if Scott "Home Run" Baker had pitched only six innings instead of pitching part of the seventh (he had a shutout through six and then got bombed in the seventh). Here are Monday's picks:

• Pittsburgh over Milwaukee: Maholm has been the Pirates best pitcher and the Pirates are playing at home.
• Nationals over Astros: Moehler is pitching for the Astros and has been dreadful so far. Lannon is probably the Nationals' best arm.
• Tigers over the Twins: Tigers are at home and like Edwin Jackson better in the matchup with Liriano.
• Yankees over Red Sox: Probably a wish and a prayer for Phil Hughes to have another great outing for the Yankees. Lester is due for a good game for the Red Sox, so this could be an iffy pick.
• Cleveland over Toronto: Tallet has been great for the Blue Jays but is due for a clunker. Carmona has to throw strikes some time, right?
• Bay Rays over Orioles: Will never pick for any team or game that Adam Eaton starts. Plus, the Bay Rays are starting to heat up.
• Braves over Mets: How much must Javier Vazquez love pitching for Bobby Cox after the years of ego bruising he got in Chicago from Ozzie Guillen? John Maine hasn't been sharp for the Mets.
• Marlins over the Reds: Harang is a warrior, but Josh Johnson is the better pitcher.
• Giants over the Cubs: Have picked against Dempster every time and have been right every time. Got to keep that streak going.
• White Sox over the Royals: Greinke isn't going to go the whole season without a loss. He's got to lose some time. Might as well be against the White Sox.
• Phillies over the Cardinals: The schedule says Lohse is supposed to pitch for the Cardinals, but the Fan heard he was hurt or something.
• Padres of the Rockies: The opposite of Dempster. Have picked for the Padres every time Correia has pitched and need to keep that streak going too.
• Angels over the A's: Oakland will be demoralized by losing a fifteen inning game they should have won plus they will be exhausted. Saunders is the Angels' best pitcher.
• Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: Like the matchup of Davis over Stultz. Plus, the Dodgers have to lose at home some time, right?
• Texas over Seattle: This is probably a dumb pick as King Felix Hernandez is a much better matchup over Kevin Millwood. But the Mariners are coming off a fifteen inning game where they used all their relievers.

Yesterday's record: 8-4. Week's Record: 8-4.

The Vagaries of Picking Games

Major League Baseball is a sport of a great deal of random happenings. The best teams are going to lose sixty times. The worst teams will win at least fifty-five. The best hitters will make an out sixty percent of their plate appearances and even the best pitchers will lose thirty percent of the time and face an even larger percentage of either getting a loss or a no-decision. With all those odds occurring at random times at any given moment, picking winners and losers on a daily basis is no better than an educated crap shoot.

The Fan has been picking games at BallHype.com since the start of Spring Training. Believe it or not, the success rate was higher during Spring Training than since the season started. Figuring out who is going to win on any given day has been a hysterical case of throwing a dart at a swinging dartboard. Take yesterday for example.

The Fan went 9-7 yesterday, which lately, was a good day. Here were the picks and the rationality:

• Washington over the Cardinals: The Nationals' best pitcher, Martis, was pitching and though Joel Pineiro has been hot of late, he was due for a bad start. Score! Got this one on the nose.
• Cubs over Marlins: Simply felt that Lilly was due for a good game and the Cubs were due for a win. This was another good call. Score!
• Yankees over Angels: Felt that Sabathia was up for a big start as the weather heats up. He was great for five innings. Lost the game in the seventh. Wrong.
• This one seemed like a toss up. Come on! It was Bergesen against Ray. Which one would be worse? Picked the Blue Jays because the Orioles have been scuffling. Sure enough, Sherrill blew another save and the Fan scored.
• Phillies over the Mets. Perez was starting for the Mets. Enough said. Turned out it took extra innings, but the Fan scored.
• Braves over Astros: Gave Jerrjens a slight edge over Oswalt. Then the game was delayed an hour and a half due to rain and both starters were out after just a couple of innings making that logic a moot point. Dang rain. Wrong.
• Detroit over Cleveland: Liked Minor over Laffey and Detroit was at home. Turned out it was the bullpens that decided the game and a blown save by Betancourt made this pick a winner.
• Giants over Rockies: Marquis has been great, but figured he was due for an off game. Cain has been great for the Giants who were at home. Wrong! Marquis was brilliant, pitching a complete game. Cain was not.
• Diamondbacks over Brewers: Picked Haran to stay hot and figured Looper was...well...Looper. Score!
• Reds over Pirates: This pick was based on Micah Owings pitching for the Reds and the Fan being a big Fan. Owings gave up four runs in the first and never recovered. He didn't get any hits either. Wrong. Oh well.
• Red Sox over Tampa Bay: Because the Red Sox were due. And they were. Score!
• Twins over Kansas City: Figured Bannister was due for a let down. Figured Perkins had been pitching well. Wrong on both counts. Both teams blew saves and the Royals won in extra innings. Wrong!
• Texas over Chicago: Believe Contreras is done as an effective major league pitcher. McCarthy has been one of the Rangers' best pitchers. Was right about Contreras and McCarthy and though the Rangers' bullpen tried its best to lose the game, they held on to win. Score!
• Mariners over A's: Liked Washburn over Cahill. Both were brilliant, but both left with the game tied 1-1. Oakland's bullpen was better. Wrong!
• Dodgers over Padres: Liked Wolf over Young. Again, both were brilliant but both got a no decision. The Dodgers won in extra innings when Guillermo Mota won in relief--a day after the Fan stated in this space that he should retire. Poetic? Score!

Today's picks: Detroit, Yankees (rooting for Hughes), Orioles (because the Fan is nuts), Reds (like Cueto over Karstens), Mets (because it's their turn?), Cardinals (because the Fan has sane moments), Astros (like Wandy over Reyes), Bay Rays (don't like Brad Penny), Brewers, Twins (Baker is due for a good game), Cubs (have to take Zambrano over Nolasco), Giants (because Barry Zito is the underdog), Dodgers (Billingsley is the Man), Oakland (because Outman is a great name for a pitcher) and the White Sox (because Danks is better than anyone Texas has).

So we'll see what happens.

Who Should Retire - Finale

Have you ever started something you wish you hadn't? And then once you started, you had to finish it whether you wanted to or not? Well, this series of posts is one of those deals. It's a negative subject: What players who are currently playing shouldn't be and should get out of the game? Nice eh? Well, let's knock this thing off and be done with it then.

- Ron Belliard: This Washington National utility player has been playing forever. Despite some decent numbers last year and the year before (who knew?), he's now 34, is no longer even a decent fielder and is currently batting .167 in 24 At Bats without a single extra base hit.

- Michael Barrett: This catcher currently toiling for the Blue Jays, is, frankly, terrible. Why do catchers get to hang around longer than any other field position other than relief pitching? Barrett is only 32, but he's finished as a good catcher (if he ever was a good one). He has averaged an OPS+ of 58 (remember that 100 is league average) the last three years and currently sits at 39. Plus, he throws out base runners less often than Mike Piazza. So...you do the math.

- Eddie "Every Day" Guardado: Eddie is now 39 years old. Not old by LOOGY standards, but even an old LOOGY has to get a guy out once in a while. Every Day Eddie has pitched 5.1 innings in 10 appearances (typical LOOGY work load) but has given up 15 base runners. His ERA is over 10. Enjoy "Every Day" on the golf course, Eddie.

- Troy Percival: The guy has the heart of a lion, but at 39, how much pain and uncertainty is worth not only him but his team? Great guy, great career. Retire again, please.

- Jamie Burke: Face it, the Mariners have a few old guys. Griffey should be retired, but we all wanted him to play one more year. Understood. But Jamie Burke? He's 37. He's a utility player that cannot hit and he's a liability in the field.

- Rich Aurilia: He had a last gasp last year with a pretty decent season at the age of 36. But now a year older, he looks toasted and his 13 OPS+ looks like he's done.

- Eric Chavez: Only 31, has any player looked more like a poster boy of the "once-was-but-will-no-longer-be" club? The guy is cooked, done, baked, overpaid. It's a waste of a roster spot. Make it easier on everyone, Mr. Chavez. Walk away. And take 38 year-old Jason Giambi with you.

- And last but not least: Any player named Hairston.