Game Picks - Saturday: July 18, 2009

This picker is on a semi-roll in somewhat unspectacular fashion. While correctly picking nine out of fifteen games, there was no excuse for getting the Oswalt game incorrect or this picker's continued insanity for picking the Orioles every day. Buckholtz wasn't spectacular for the Red Sox (he walked three and struck out three) but Romero didn't hold up for the Blue Jays. As for the Pittsburgh/San Francisco game, it lived up to the pitching duel aspect and became a battle of the bullpens for fourteen innings. The Fan can hardly be blamed for that. Lincecum was brilliant but so was Maholm.

Fifteen more big games are on tap for Saturday, so let's see what they bring:

• The Yankees over the Tigers: Sabathia needs to come up big against Verlander for this pick to come off correctly. But the Yankees already dinged the hundred mile an hour fastball of Zumaya, so there you go.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: T'was silly picking against the Red Sox yesterday. The Blue Jays seem dispirited these days.
• The Mets over the Braves: Santana has had plenty of rest. He'll win if the Mets score a run or two.
• The White Sox over the Orioles: The Fan has got to stop the madness. Even if he does hate the White Sox.
• The Angels over the Athletics: Weaver should be better than Mazzaro.
• The Cubs over the Nationals: Riggelman won't get his first win in this game either.
• The Pirates over the Giants: Really root for Zito as he continues to struggle, but can't pick for him either.
• The Mariners over the Indians: How can the Indians keep throwing Ohka out there?
• The Marlins over the Phillies: Josh Johnson and wishful thinking.
• The Reds over the Brewers: When you have two struggling pitchers like Harang and Parra, go with the one with more experience.
• The Bay Rays over the Royals: The Fan never picks against Greinke, but the Bay Rays are almost unstoppable now on offense.
• The Diamondbacks over the Cardinals: Pujols is the eighth wonder of the world. Two more homers yesterday? But Haran is pitching.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Got to stick with Feldman. It's all Josh's fault.
• The Rockies over the Padres: The Padres have fallen into a deep funk and even Gonzalez can't hit.
• The Dodgers over the Astros: Can't see Hampton stopping that lineup.

Yesterday: 9-6
Week: 25-13
Month: 88-72

Game Picks - Friday: July 17, 2009

Another somewhat successful night at picking Major League Baseball games. Of course there were only eight games, so it couldn't have gone too badly. The Nats over the Cubs was a stupid pick. And this picker should never have picked against Wandy. He's been a boon here all year (and for the Astros).

Tonight we get back to a full schedule. Nearly half the teams had four days off and should be raring to go. Every team's top of the rotation should lead things off, so it could be a night of aces. Here we go:

• The Giants over the Pirates: Lincecum versus Maholm. Good matchup. Both teams struggle on offense.
• The Cubs over the Nationals: Riggelman may never win a game with the Nats. Don't you just cringe when a team says its new manager is a "disciplinarian"?
• The Mariners over the Indians: Huff has been decent. But Felix is king.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: A. J. Burnett over a kid named French.
• The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Romero should beat a spot start by Buckholz which may be a showcase for a Halladay deal?
• The Marlins over the Phillies: Nolasco has been fantastic of late, so will go with him over Hamels who has been ordinary.
• The Brewers over the Reds: The Braunies should jump all over Arroyo.
• The Braves over the Mets: Jurrjens over Pelfrey because the Braves at least have a major league team right now.
• The Twins over the Rangers: Never feel good when Padilla starts. Get ready to duck, Twins.
• The Bay Rays over the Royals: Shields should be slightly better than Bannister.
• The Orioles over the White Sox: Really like this Berken kid.
• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: Carpenter over Garland in a battle of "wily" veterans.
• The Rockies over the Padres: Boy, Adrian Gonzalez is in a serious slump.
• The Athletics over the Angels: Picking on Cahill to have a good night. Giambi is still batting under .200. Geez.
• The Dodgers over the Astros: Super match up of Billingsley and Oswalt. Oswalt has been on fire, but the Dodgers are at home with their best pitcher on the mound.

Well, that does it. Now we get to see what happens. Have a great weekend everyone.

Yesterday: 5-3
Week: 16-7
Month: 88-72

Odds and Ends from Thursday Night

Ah! Baseball is back and it's already been interesting. It's possible that this Fan is a baseball dork. Can't help it. New things happen every day. Fresh games full of possibilities occur nightly and except for the slow Mondays and Thursdays, there are fifteen new reasons to find out what's going on every day.

The Fan's been watching the Yahoo MLB page while putting some hard cover books together. When there isn't time to watch a game, Yahoo does a clean job of refreshing constantly and showing what's going on. Some major sites don't even refresh. No names will be mentioned, but one of them has been featured here as having the worst webmasters in the known universe.

And even though there were only nine games scheduled, there was plenty to smile about and wonder about. Such as:

- As predicted here, the Home Run Derby champ did hit a homer off of Homer Bailey. It was just too good symmetry not to come true. Bailey was awful. He walked four and gave up six hits in five and a third.

- Jamie Moyer. Man. What can you say? The guy is just unfathomable. He pitched seven innings of shut out ball and only gave up one hit. One hit. The guy is almost as old as the Fan and couldn't knock over one of those arcade monkeys and yet he one-hits big leaguers for seven innings. How? The Fan keeps predicting against him and he keeps making the Fan look like a moron.

- Oliver Perez pitched for the Mets tonight against the Braves. He pitched six innings, gave up five hits and walked four and left with a 3-3 tie. In today's game of low pitcher expectation, that qualifies for a quality start, no? Seems rather pedantic to the Fan. But the Mets lost anyway since they can't hit with their AAA fill ins.

- Cliff Lee "scattered" nine hits over nine full innings to beat the Mariners. Immediately after the game, the Indians' GM's phone started ringing again and he kept saying no. The Fan noticed that Sizemore is back to leading off. Why? The guy is an RBI machine. Put in third in the order and leave him there for Pete's sake. Equally confusing is why the Mariners continue to bat Branyon second in the order. The guy is the big stud in that lineup. Why bat him second? By the way, not too many people have noticed that Travis Hafner has an OPS of .944. Isn't that Comeback Player of the Year stuff? Of course, he's only played in half of the Indians' games.

- The Cubbies got off to a good start for the second half with a good game from Harden. The Fan has to admit he didn't see that coming. Lannon pitched well again for the Nats but Harden was better. Adam Dunn did what he tends to do from time to time. He had four plate appearances and never hit the ball. He struck out three times and walked once.

The late games will have to wait until morning as the Fan is done tuckered out today.

Alex Rodriguez: Revisited

When Alex Rodriguez first came back to the Yankees after his hip surgery, he didn't start off very well. Writers all over the web sphere were writing how either his hip had destroyed his game or hinting (or flat out stating) that since he couldn't use PEDs now, he wasn't the same player. He has been all but forgotten in the daily grind of day to day baseball. But guess what? A-Rod has quietly started to build his numbers and they look darn close to his career norms. Oops.

In Rodriguez's last 28 days, his numbers look like this: .324/.467/.676. For those of you disbelievers, that's an OPS of 1.143. His year totals to date: .258/.411/.548. His current OPS for the year is .959, just .008 off his career mark. His OPS+ sits at 150 as apposed to his career OPS+ of 147.

And if you are thinking that his numbers are juiced (poor choice of a word there) because of the new Yankee Stadium, consider that his sOPS+ is higher on the road than at home. So it appears that Mr. Rodriguez is not near death as a player yet.

Alex Rodriguez is only seven homers behind the AL leader (Carlos Pena) who has played thirty more games. He is in the top 25 in the league in RBIs. He season projects out to 30 homers and 97 RBIs. Not bad for a guy who can't play without PEDs.

Wishful Thinking for the Second Half

Just about every baseball writer there is writes some kind of post or article concerning:

- First half surprises
- First half awards
- Second half predictions
- Second half things to look for
- Trades that will help teams in the second half...

You get the idea. It's an age-old tradition, mostly because there isn't much else to write about for three days during the All Star break. Hey, did you catch that, "Legends/Celebrity Softball" game? No. Didn't think so. Anyway, since we have to write something to fill the dead space between the schedule, the Fan might as well do the expected. Let's add a little twist to things though. What follows is a list of second half wishes followed by what will probably happen instead:

Wishful Thinking: The Brewers will win the National League Central. The Fan just digs the way Braun and Fielder relate to each other and do that cool boxing routine when one of them does something good.
What Will Probably Happen: The Cardinals will win the division. Grrrr...that LaRussa.

Wishful Thinking: The Marlins will win the National League East. After watching that team for two and a half weeks while on vacation in Florida, the Fan really enjoyed that team.
What Will Probably Happen: The Phillies will win the division. Grrrr...Hate that same old same old.

Wishful Thinking: The Twins will win the American League Central. Morneau and Mauer are just amazing players playing in a small market with a stadium that has baggies for outfield walls.
What Will Probably Happen: The Tigers will win the division. But that's pretty cool too because no one expected them to.

Wishful Thinking: Roy Halladay will win the Cy Young Award...while pitching the entire season for the Blue Jays.
What Will Probably Happen: Halladay gets traded to the Yankees for Joba Chamberlain and the Yankees top centerfield prospect.

Wishful Thinking: Pedro Martinez will come back with a swagger and win eight out of his ten starts.
What Will Probably Happen: He'll pitch eight games, go 3-3 with an ERA around 5.00 and then get hurt.

Wishful Thinking: The Dodgers will face the Red Sox in the World Series and Manny Ramirez will personally destroy his old team. Now that would be fun to watch.
What Will Probably Happen: The Dodgers will lose the NLCS and all the sanctimonious writers will say it's Manny's fault.

Wishful Thinking: Micah Owings will go on a run and win eight out of twelve while hitting six more homers.
What Will Probably Happen: He'll continue to pitch one good game and two bad ones and hit the occasional bomb.

Wishful Thinking: The Yankees face the Red Sox in the ALCS and purge the 2004 series from memory.
What Will Probably Happen: The Bay Rays overtake the Yankees for the wildcard and Girardi will get fired. Personally, this observer thinks Girardi has done a great job.

Wishful Thinking: Jeter will end the season at .320/.390/.480 with 200 hits, 100 runs scored and 15 homers.
What Will Probably Happen: He'll do exactly that and cement his HOF credentials.

Wishful Thinking: The Angels and Mariners will fade again and the Rangers will win the AL West. It would be so much fun to see a different team in the playoffs!
What Will Probably Happen: The Rangers will be the team that fades and those dang Halos will win the darn thing again.

Wishful Thinking: Albert Pujols will win the triple crown. He is such a cool guy and seems as great a guy as he is a player.
What Will Probably Happen: He'll lose out on one of the categories because everyone walks the guy now. Personally, that's crap and any manager who does that is cheating baseball and cheating the fans...and is a gigantic buck buck buck chicken.

Wishful Thinking: Carl Crawford steals 100 bases, the first guy to do it in decades.
What Will Probably Happen: He'll end up with 80 or something.

Wishful Thinking: Tim Wakefield will win 20 games this year.
What Will Probably Happen: He'll win 16 or so.

Wishful Thinking: We'll have plenty to talk about because MLB is always new and always exciting and we'll see things we've never seen before.
What Will Probably Happen: Exactly that because that's why we love this game.

Game Picks - Thursday: July 16, 2009

Yay! Baseball is back on Thursday with a partial slate of games. After three days rest, why do some teams need another day off?

Those three days were murder. Yes, the All Star game was mildly amusing and President Obama was jaunty and fun. Tim McCarver was unbearable as usual and it was stupid that Halladay had to bat in the second inning. The DH should be the rule for all All Star games. But all that is behind us now and we can look forward to a fun-filled second half. Weeee! Here we go!

Thursday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Cubs: The Cubs second half starts with a thud as Lannon out guns Harden.
• The Indians over the Mariners: Lee pitches for all those scouts again.
• The Braves over the Mets: Uh oh! Don't look now, but Perez is back for the Mets. Duck!
• The Brewers over the Reds: The Home Run Derby champ bats against Homer Bailey? Can it be more fitting?
• The Marlins over the Phillies: Moyer is like Wakefield. How? Why? How long?
• The Rockies over the Padres: Cook should be all over the weak-hitting Pads.
• The Angels over the A's: Santana should be better than Braden. Does anyone remember Braden Theatres?
• The Dodgers over the Astros: Hate to pick against Wandy, but the Dodgers are at home and they rarely lose there.

Sunday: 11-4
Week: 11-4
Month: 83-69

Hate the All Star Break

Major League Baseball's All Star Game is probably the best of its type. The NBA All Star Game is also very good, but the NFL "Pro Bowl" sucks. Even so, this writer hates the All Star Break for several reasons. First, it puts a halt for three days on the season and the Fan goes into serious withdrawals. Second, the game itself is usually anti-climatic. It's fun seeing all those stars together and then the big build up comes from the announcers and then the game itself is played and it's usually the pitchers dominating and a low scoring game.

The Home Run Derby that comes the day before the game is now somewhat tainted. It started with the exploits of Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa and it now seems to symbolize all that went wrong with baseball and the mess we are now left with. Sure, there are still fun moments like Josh Hamilton last year. But by and large, it's a pretty boring affair with far too many commercials and too much talking by the announcers to cover up the fact that the batter is mostly letting pitches go or hitting line drives that fall short of the fence. And man, don't you hate those awful interviews after each turn? The only positive is that some lucky American gets to win a house. Are they still doing that? And do they still play those gawd-awful celebrity softball games after? Now those were cheesy.

For the Fan, the All Star Break is something to get through and not something to look forward to. It's like a visit to Grandma's when you are a kid. "Man, let's just get this over with!" The Futures Game would be more exciting to this writer if he was better versed on the prospects. So add up the entire package and all it means is that for three days, the Fan can't make any picks, has no box scores to pore through, no rundown of the previous day on Josh's site, no Royals lament from Posnanski, no hair pulling from eyebleaf's site. It's just three days to endure until we get back to the fun that is the daily baseball odyssey toward the playoffs.

Game Picks - Sunday: July 12, 2009

Well that didn't take long. The week's picks took a dive faster than a Yankee pitcher against the Angels' lineup. Faster even than Nick Johnson's and Adam Dunn's homers went back to back against the Astros. The one question that remains is why this picker had to lose everything gained in one lousy day? Can you say crushed? Yup. Crushed.

So it is with some trepidation and with a bit of a sheepish feeling that the Fan presents to you Sunday's picks:

• The Cubs over the Cardinals: Kyle Lohse is coming back from missing a few starts. That's always a red flag and Rule #2.
• The Tigers over the Indians: Verlander versus Tomo Ohka. How could this go wrong?
• The Reds over the Mets: Shouldn't have picked against Santana yesterday.
• The Phillies over the Pirates: Happ should be better than Vazquez. What happened to the Pirates rotation?
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: Who and what exactly is a Rzepczynski?
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Yes, the Royals might have a chance pitching Chen against Beckett. Sure they do.
• The Bay Rays over the A's: Don't know how the A's won yesterday, but the odds are against them doing it twice in a row.
• The Nationals over the Astros: Zimmermann should be better than Moehler.
• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Good match up with Kershaw against Gallardo.
• The Twins over the White Sox: The Fan refuses to believe that the creaky White Sox are better than the Twins.
• The Rockies over the Braves: Braves' rookie, Medlen, isn't as good as Hanson.
• The Yankees over the Angels: Sabathia needs to right this ship.
• The Giants over the Padres: Zito should beat Correia.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: Josh Johnson should over power the snake hides.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: So the Rangers can beat the Angels but not the Mariners?
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: The second half of the day/night double-header and on national TV.

Yesterday: 5-10
Week: 51-47
Month: 72-65

Why Are the Mets so Stupid?

It's bad enough the other team in New York goes out and picks up pitchers like Livan Hernandez and Tim Redding or thinks that Angel Pagan can still play. It's bad enough that they are missing most of their team to injury. If all that isn't bad enough, they then allow themselves to get hoodwinked by a team in their own division.

Do the Mets really think Jeff Francoeur is a better player than Ryan Church? They really think that? Francoeur has already done the unthinkable in losing Bobby Cox who hardly ever gives up on anybody. The guy has a 68 OPS+ for the year and an 89 for his career. One would think that the 68 is an anomaly with that kind of career mark (as bad as it is) except that Francoeur put up a 73 number last year in 652 plate appearances. A 71 OPS+ in his last 976 plate appearances would be a pretty good indication that Francoeur is not a very good player.

From all indications, Francoeur is a stubborn player who doesn't believe that a walk is anywhere near as good as a strikeout. He has been widely quoted as stating that all the new sabermetrics are a bunch of hooey. That kind of belief shows a guy who doesn't get that he has to improve all aspects of his game as a player if he expects any kind of longevity. He may not buy into sabermetrics, but just about every team in baseball now does. So who will win that contest?

And it's not just his offense. Francoeur has basically been given a two year bye in Atlanta because he once hit 29 homers in a season. he hasn't ever come close to that since, but at least he had positive numbers in the field. Until last season, that is. Last year he threw up a clunker and had a -14 RTOT. With virtually no offense, diminishing power and defense, exactly what kind of player did the Mets think they were getting?

And let's get this straight: The Mets need help on offense, so they trade a guy who is struggling compared to his career numbers but is still a better hitter than Francoeur? Ryan Church is having an off year at the plate (mostly because his manager hates him or something) and still has an OPS+ that is 20 points higher than Francoeur and is only one point less than Francoeur's lifetime OPS+. Umm...what were they thinking?

This observer could understand giving up on Daniel Murphy who has the same kind of numbers currently as Francoeur. But there is no way it seems correct that they went out and got a worse hitter than Church to help fix their injury-riddled offense.

The Braves are geniuses. Don't be surprised if Church doesn't blossom in Atlanta and don't be surprised if Francoeur becomes the latest Met to get booed into submission. The Fan is shaking his head in bewilderment...

Game Picks - Saturday: July 11, 2009

Yesterday was a sunny day no matter how you look at it. Except for the continued mystery of Joba Chamberlain, a stupid pick of the Rockies over Atlanta, a total meltdown by the Marlins and this picker's beany by Cecil, it was a very good day.

With another full day of games on tap, let's get right to the picks:

• The Cubs over the Cardinals: Ted Lilly is the only Cubs pitcher with a chance against this hot team.
• The Yankees over the Angels: Pettitte is due for a decent game and the Angels (though they didn't show it last night) are missing two-thirds of their outfield to injury.
• The Bay Rays over the A's: Garza should have no problem against the meager hitting of the A's.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: Taking a flier that Ohlendorf continues to pitch well.
• The Astros over the Nationals: Mike Hampton might be a better hitter than anyone on the A's.
• The Brewers over the Dodgers: Just can't see how Torre has more faith in Jeff Weaver than any man on earth ever should.
• The Tigers over the Indians: In any perfect world, Galarraga should always beat Carl Pavano.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Sticking with the Fan's main man, Romero.
• The Reds over the Mets: Santana pitching for the Mets should always be a lock. But with their offense, he has nearly a .500 record.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Meche isn't himself these days and even an iffy 42 year old, Smoltz should be able to push around the terrible hitting Royals.
• The Twins over the White Sox: Is the Fan the only one worried about Joe Mauer's health if he participates in the Home Run Derby?
• The Rockies over the Braves: Jason Marquis is pitching for the Rockies and that is Rule #1.
• The Diamondbacks over the Marlins: Have no faith at all in Sean West, simply because he has no faith in himself.
• The Giants over the Padres: Matt Cain should prevail in this one.
• The Rangers over the Mariners. Andruw Jones should have a good day against Washburn.

Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 46-37
Month: 67-55

Philly Fans Get Victorino Into the All Star Game

Shane Victorino is a good player having a good season. His OPS is .838 and he plays really good defense. But is he better than Pablo Sandoval this year? Not even close. Sandoval has an OPS of .940, a full .102 higher than Victorino. But Philadelphia has a larger fan base than San Francisco does and thus, in the "Vote for the Last Man" thing, Victorino gets the last spot in the All Star Game.

The fan vote is touted as something that gets fans into the game. It is touted as empowering fans to have a voice in who they want to see. But from this Fan's perspective, Giant fans want to see Sandoval in the game as much as Philly fans want to see Victorino. The problem is that there are more Philly fans than there are San Francisco fans.

The fan vote, both in this instance and in the vote for the starters will always heavily favor the larger markets. And as long as this game is going to be selected as it is, there will always be a large number of Red Sox and Yankees and Mets and Phillies because those are large and emphatic fan bases. For all the good intentions of MLB, the fan vote doesn't work and hasn't for a long time.

Is David Ortiz Back?

The first third of the season showed a brutally awful David Ortiz who after sixty games was batting .178 with no homers. He looked lost and he looked slow. It was so bad that it became almost a spectator sport to see how long the really bad could be. But watching Baseball Tonight on ESPN regularly, we have seen a resurgence of the Big Papi as he is hitting the ball for power more often and the analysts on ESPN's highlight show have talked about how Ortiz is again hitting the fastball. But is he all the way back?

The numbers show he is better, but then again, it's hard to be much worse than .178. But he has hardly been the David Ortiz of old either. For all the talk, he's still only batting .250 in his last ten games. He is slugging at a .555 clip for the ten games and that is a hearty number. But if he is suddenly "hot" again, that slugging isn't THAT hot. Not as hot as when he was slugging .621 for entire seasons in the not too distant past.

The good news is that Ortiz is striking out far less. His rate is 17% for the last ten games compared to the 25% for the year and 21% of his career. The bad news is that his walks are down. The last ten games pretty much mirror the rest of the season where he is striking out twice for every one walk (6 Ks and 3 Ws the last ten games). In the past, his ratio was always around one to one.

Ortiz is now at .731 for an OPS and it's a good bet that it could probably reach .800 by the end of the season. He is definitely better than he was earlier in the season, but he is not the David Ortiz of the past, despite his improvement.

Game Picks - Friday: July 10, 2009

In golfing terminology, yesterday's picks were a shank. The Red Sox lost to the Royals? The Yankees won a game where a reliever started? And to finish it all off, the Braves and the Diamondbacks both had bullpens that nuked their games.

Ah well, it's a sunny day in Maine and it's supposed to hit 80 today. It's okay. The sun inspired these shiny new picks:

• The Cardinals over the Cubs: In another week, this race might be over. The Cardinals look like the best team in the division.
• The Phillies over the Pirates: Have been picking Zack Duke game after game and he never gets any runs. So the Fan will pick against him today.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: Would love to pick the Blue Jays, but not when Cecil is pitching.
• The Tigers over the Indians: Jackson is pitching for Detroit and that should be enough. He shouldn't have been on the All Star squad though.
• The Reds over the Mets: Even a wounded pitcher like Arroyo should beat this AAA lineup.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Lester over Bannister.
• The Bay Rays over the A's: The Bay Rays are playing lights out and can't catch the Yankees and the Red Sox.
• The Astros over the Nationals: Oswalt has been really good lately.
• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Billingsley and company should beat Looper.
• The Twins over the White Sox: The Twins would be in first place if they didn't go Oh for the Yankees.
• The Rockies over the Braves: Lowe's sinker won't sink in Mile High country.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: Nolasco has been terrific since coming back from the minors.
• The Yankees over the Angels: Does anyone understand how far the Yankees would be ahead of this division if they played even .400 ball against the Red Sox?
• The Rangers over the Mariners: Somehow, Feldman always seems to win.
• The Padres over the Giants: The Pads should beat the Giant's fifth starter.

Yesterday: 4-8
Week: 36-32
Month: 57-50

Game Picks - Thursday: July 9, 2009

Egads! What a long day that was! This picker and his wife started at the West Palm Beach airport at 6:00 A. M. and got into Portland, Maine at 4:00 in the afternoon. After a six and a half hour drive north, the destination was reached. But it's good to be home and Maine smells and looks great.

The picks were fairly successful during all of that and that's a happy circumstance. Let's see what today's games bring.

• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: The Bay Rays have skunked the Blue Jays all year. But maybe Halladay can at least salvage one game here.
• The Twins over the Yankees: The Yankees are starting Aceves and Liriano has been good lately.
• The Brewers over the Cardinals: The match up of Pineiro versus Parra seems to favor the Cards, but that was the case last night and the Brewers won.
• The Indians over the White Sox: Huff versus Richard. Don't like either pick, but somebody has to win!
• The Reds over the Phillies: Caution! Sentimental Pick as Owings is pitching for the Reds.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: Wolf over Livan.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Hochever has been pretty good lately, but a patient team like the Red Sox will murder him.
• The Nationals over the Astros: Lannon is the Nats' best pitcher. Ortiz is the Astros' worst.
• The Braves over the Rockies: Hoping that Hanson is better than Cook. This will happen if Hanson throws strikes.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: The Marlins already beat this team once without its best player in the lineup.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: Hunter gets his second big league win over King Felix, who will get mashed around by the Rangers' offense.
• The Giants over the Padres: Lincecum. Is there anything more to say?

Yesterday: 9-6
Week: 32-24
Month: 53-42

Hopefully tonight, the Fan will get back into the regular posting groove. Thank for your patience.

Game Picks - Wednesday: July 8, 2009

It's a travel day on Wednesday and this picker will be in the air and on the road from early morning to late at night. Not wanting to deprive loyal readers with these daily, head-scratching picks. There won't be any results from Tuesday, but that may be a good thing.

Here are Wednesday's pick:

• The Astros over the Pirates: Wandy Rodriguez seems back on track. So the Fan is back in his corner.
• The Braves over the Cubs: Kawakami versus rookie, Hart. Whodat?
• The Rockies over the Nationals: De La Rosa versus Detwiler, who doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Gaudin has seemed pretty good lately.
• The Marlins over the Giants: Interesting match up here. Volstad has been really good for the Marlins lately. The Big Sadowski has been impressive for the Giants.
• The Orioles over the Mariners: Have you noticed that this picker seems to pick the Orioles almost every night? What's with that?
• The Reds over the Phillies: Homer Bailey was very good last time out. Can he do it two starts in a row?
• The Royals over the Tigers: Greinke!
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: In the continuing battle of the "Ays," Tallet should come back from his last, less than steller outing.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: Kuroda versus Perez. Perez in his first start back. That's Rule #3.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: Wakefield wins #11.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Does it seem like the Cardinals seem ready to put this division away?
• The Yankees over the Twins: Burnett is starting to earn his money.
• The White Sox over the Indians: Contreras seems to have found a new life.
• The Rangers over the Angels: Because the Fan is rooting for the Rangers to end the Angels' division reign.

Think good thoughts for the Fan tomorrow on his travels. Thanks!

Game Picks - Tuesday: July 7, 2009

Our last day in Florida. We head back to our home in Maine tomorrow and it's time. Back to our own bed and our flower gardens, our golf course...and well...back to work. But it has been nice here in Paradise and overall, the picks haven't been awful. They just haven't been great either. Who knows, with any luck, we'll get to watch one more Marlins' game tonight before we go.

Today's picks:

• The Phillies over the Reds: Will the Phillies have anything left after last night's 22-1 performance. This pick thinks they will.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Verlander versus Chen seems like the mismatch of the century.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: The Fan doesn't really think this will happen. Just hoping it does.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: Pelfrey has been good lately, but will the Mets score any runs?
• The Red Sox over the A's: The A's surprised yesterday by beating the Red Sox. Don't think they will beat Beckett.
• The Braves over the Cubs: The Cubs are heating up. But Vazquez will cool them off and Dempster is due to be Dempster sooner or later.
• The Brewers over the Cardinals: Like Gallardo's chances over the Cards.
• The Pirates over the Astros: Continue to believe in Maholm even though he hasn't been good lately.
• The Yankees over the Twins: Sabathia goes for the Yankees and Baker has given up a lot of homers this year. Not a good thing in Yankee Stadium.
• The White Sox over the Indians: Like Buerhle over Sowers.
• The Nationals over the Rockies: Like Zimmermann over Hammel.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: The Padres are just a better team when the pitchers stack up as equal.
• The Anges over the Rangers: The Rangers use this series to put first time starter, Nippert, out there? What are they, nuts?
• The Orioles over the Mariners: Bedard is back, but what will he last, five innings? Then it's the Mariner bullpen. Ugh.
• The Marlins over the Giants: Josh Johnson should be better than Barry Zito.

There you have it. Have a great Tuesday.

Yesterday: 5-6
Week: 15-11
Month: 36-29

Vazquez and Halladay

Two of the most dominant pitchers in either league are among the rumors being bandied about in the trade market. According to ESPN.com, the Brewers are interested in Vazquez and would have to part with either Gamel or Alcedes Escobar. The same report states that Blue Jays GM, J. P. Ricciardi said, "We have to be open to anything." And that includes Halladay.

Let's start with the Brewers. Gamel hasn't shown anything in his brief stint with the Brewers to show that he should be untouchable. If the Brewers could get a pitcher such as Vazquez, this sidewalk GM would trade Gamel in a heartbeat. The Braves need offense. The Brewers already have two of the best offensive stars in the game. They need pitching. This deal would make great sense for both clubs, especially since Hanson is working out nicely.

On the other hand, Ricciardi would be really stupid to let Halladay get away. It's not just that he is one of the best pitchers in the American League. He is a legend and a hero up in Toronto for a franchise that is struggling to fill seats. What do you say to your fan base if you are trading away your fans' brightest hero? Okay, he's expensive. But what is the cost of losing him?

The Fan does miss the good old days when trades were made to improve both clubs instead of being a vehicle to save money. Any trade the Blue Jays were to make with Halladay would be a salary dump, no matter how anyone else wants to look at it. To trade a B-level major leaguer for prospects makes sense. To trace a true ace for prospects that may never make anything of themselves is stupid. Names like Dukes and Pie litter the field like shrapnel from those kinds of hopes.

Vazquez for Gamel? Heck yeah. Halladay for anybody or any mess of anybodys? No way!

Should Doug Melvin Be Mad?

In a story that surfaced on Monday, Ryan Braun spouted off about the state of his team, his pitching staff and what Braun thinks General Manager, Doug Melvin, should do about it. The story goes on to state that Bob Melvin was angry over the comments. So the question is: Should Melvin be mad?

Unfortunately, we have to fall back on the problem with blogging: This blogger doesn't have access to any previous interactions with Braun and Melvin concerning the team. The Fan doesn't know if Braun had talked to Melvin and found no satisfaction in the conversation. The Fan doesn't know if Braun has a leadership role in the Brewers' clubhouse which would give him a right to discuss the state of the team.

What is known is that that Braun is the best over all player on that team (all due respect to Fielder). The best player on the team does have some consideration on what goes on around him. But if he is the quiet type in the clubhouse and is trying to rouse his team suddenly with his outburst, then it's out of line.

Here is the bottom line to this writer based on what little information is available. First, Doug Melvin should be big enough and secure enough in his position to not get riled by what a "dumb player" has to say. The Fan has been in business for a long time. Employees should never be ridiculed for stating what's on their mind. On the other hand, as a manager of people, the Fan never wanted to be disrespected by an employee because it erodes the respect level the others have for the manager.

This situation is borderline. What Braun is quoted as saying is not really a direct disrespect of Melvin. He actually says that he knows Melvin is trying to better the team. He just hopes it happens quickly. He never said that Melvin was a turkey because he wasn't doing anything. So in this case, Braun didn't disrespect Melvin. Certainly, if Braun had never discussed this privately with Melvin, then it would have been better for Braun to go to Melvin privately to discuss his concerns. But even so, with no disrespect really shown, then Melvin should have just laughed it off. It would have been the bigger move.

As for Braun calling out his teammates, again, that depends on whether Braun has a leadership role in the clubhouse. If he does not, he's out of line. If he does, then this is not that bad a deal. But again, he would have been better served, even if he was a leader, to call out his teammates in the clubhouse and not in the paper.

The most likely scenario is that Braun was frustrated by the loss and spouted off, which was dutifully captured in a story by the writers who overheard what Braun said. In the old days, the writer never would have reported Braun's statements. But if Braun spouted off in the heat of a moment of frustration, then he needs to apologize to his teammates. Again, he did not openly disrespect his general manger and owes Melvin nothing.

All Star Rosters: Fans Blow It Again

So the Fan turned on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN to catch two of the most exciting teams in the American League: Texas and Tampa Bay. To lead up to the event, the Fan watched the Baseball Tonight lead in, one of the most enjoyable such episodes of the week. The Baseball Tonight crew spent much of the broadcast introducing and then discussing the selections for the All Star Game. Topic covered. But then the SNB crew (minus Jon Miller for some reason) figured the topic wasn't covered enough and the exciting match up wasn't good enough so they spent much of the early part of the game discussing the picks. Fortunately, by the fourth inning or so, they ran out of breath and started talking about the game at hand.

Oh well, as long as they brought the topic up...again...let the Fan state unequivocally that the fans have proven over and over that they don't deserve the right to pick the All Star teams' starters. All Star voting is about as fair as the voting for the American Idol. Any time you can pack a ballot, any time you can have teams with high attendance and interest dominate the selections, you have a problem. Let's look at the starters in the American League.

• Catcher: Joe Mauer. Okay, this is the right pick.
• First base: Mark Teixeira. Teixeira has been everything the Yankees hoped, but Justin Morneau is having the best year of all the AL first basement. And it's not even close.
• Second base: Dustin Pedroia. A typical example of ballot stuffing. The only correct starter here is Aaron Hill of Toronto. Look at the numbers. Again, it's not even close.
• Shortstop: Derek Jeter. If Bartlett of the Bay Rays hadn't missed so much time, he would be the pick, but Jeter is the right pick.
• Third base: Evan Longoria: No argument with that pick.
• OF: Ichiro Suzuki. He is hitting .370, but if you look at the big picture and including slugging and OPS, Crawford is a better pick.
• OF: Jason Bay: Well, okay. If you like RBI as the most important stat, okay.
• OF: Josh Hamilton. What!? He hasn't even played all year. This is a glaring, idiotic example of what happens when the fans pick. Torii Hunter should be the starting center fielder.

Now the National League.

• Catcher: Yadier Molina. The National League catchers are currently pretty pathetic. Molina is the best of the bad with a .727 OPS.
• First base: Albert Pujols. Well duh.
• Second base: Chase Utley. The correct choice.
• Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez. Thank goodness. Rollins was leading for a while.
• Third base: David Wright. Pablo Sandoval is having the better year.
• OF: Carlos Beltran. He's been on the DL. Will be for another month. Come on! Should have been Brad Hawpe.
• OF: Raul Ibanez. See above. Should be Justin Upton.
• OF: Ryan Braun. Yay! They got one out of three correct.

We won't even get to the rest of the rosters or the pitchers. That's another kettle of fish. The point is that the fans, bless their hearts, don't get it right. Here's a good thought. Why not put a bunch of folks from Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, THT and baseball-reference.com together on a panel and have them pick the best 33 players in each league? Don't even talk to the Fan about having the players or the writers or the managers make the picks. The Fan will politely point you to the Gold Glove awards for how well that works.

Whatever would work should be what is used. The Fan vote doesn't work.

Game Picks - Monday: July 6, 2009

Sunday was a good day for this picker. Didn't expect Randy Johnson's shoulder to fall off. Should have known the Reds wouldn't sweep the Cardinals. Should have seen the Orioles' bullpen falling apart. But over all, can't be too unhappy about the results.

Here are Monday's picks in a short schedule:

• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Romero is really good. Pettitte is really average.
• The Braves over the Cubs: This picker always goes with Jurrjens.
• The Reds over the Phillies: Cueto has the stuff to stuff the Phillies...IF he throws strikes.
• The Tigers over the Royals: See Joe Posnanski's blog to understand how Meche has been abused by his manager.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: Smoltz wins his first for the Red Sox.
• The Astros over the Pirates: The Astros are playing well. The Pirates are not.
• The Rockies over the Nationals: The Marquis! Can't pick against him.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Garland pitches for the scouts.
• The Rangers over the Angels: This Rangers team is growing on this writer big time.
• The Orioles over the Mariners: The Orioles jump all over Washburn.
• The Giants over the Marlins: Cain over Sean West. Have watched West pitch a few times now and the guy has talent, but he doesn't have grit.

Have a good week, everyone!

Yesterday: 10=5
Week: 10-5
Month: 31-23

Game Picks - Sunday: July 5, 2009

The weather here in Florida was gorgeous for July 4th and we didn't even get our normal afternoon rain. Hope you all had a nice day and got a chance to do something fun. As for the picks, there was a mixed back and the day ended slightly in the red. But in the grand scheme of things, there are worse things in life.

Another full slate of holiday weekend games today and here are the picks:

• The Indians over the Athletics: The Fan has gotten this pick wrong all weekend. So either the Indians finish the sweep or finish off this picker. One or the other.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Chamberlain should pick off Cecil.
• The Pirates over the Marlins: Ohlendorf has confounded this picker and beat some really good pitchers in his last two starts. Guess we'll have to pick him over Nolasco.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Carpenter should beat Arroyo.
• The Phillies over the Mets: Santana has looked human the last two weeks. And this picker can't seem to get a Met pick correctly.
• The Braves over the Nationals: Derek Lowe has been a mystery lately, but he should beat Olsen.
• The Red Sox over the Mariners: Lester should be a lock over Morrow.
• The Twins over the Tigers: The Twins have hung tough against the Tigers and need this game badly to start making a move.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Oh what the heck, let's give a pick to Bannister and the Royals.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: Ted Lilly stops the bleeding.
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Dan Haran has been the best pitcher in the National League this side of Lincecum.
• The Orioles over the Angels: Just because the Fan wants it to be so.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Billingsley should win this game.
• The Giants over the Astros: The Giants are starting to hit. If that continues, they are scary.
• The Rangers over the Bay Rays: Great match up of Feldman and Garza. Giving the edge to Feldman at home.

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 46-38
Month: 28-26

Game Picks - Saturday: July 4, 2009

Happy Birthday, America! 233 years ago today, the cream of American colonial society risked everything to sign the Declaration of Independence. The Grand Experiment is still not perfect nor will it ever be. The past is checkered and littered with mistakes. But this is the greatest country on earth and this writer is extremely thankful for the sacrifices of those men in Philadelphia and the every day people that defeated an empire.

Oh yes, and what is as American as apple pie? Baseball! And there are fifteen more games to speculate upon this morning. Here are the picks:

• The Nationals over the Braves: The Nats played them tough last night and have their best pitcher on the mound tonight. The Nats are patient at the plate which will mean an early exit for Hanson.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: This is just a hunch that it will be a low scoring game and the Brewers will prevail in the end.
• The Red Sox over the Mariners: The Mariners got their one win of the series. That will be all.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Halladay goes into the All Star break with a bang. Or is that a Wang?
• The Reds over the Cardinals: Caution! Sentimental pick for Micah Owings.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Can you root for the "Royals" on July 4th? Seems unpatriotic.
• The Giants over the Astros: Lincecum!
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Like Wolf over Geer. Like Manny over Geer.
• The Mets over the Phillies: Nieve over Moyer. But if Rollins has finally awoken, this could get ugly.
• The Twins over the Tigers: Liriano has gotten better. Like him in this game over Jackson.
• The Pirates over the Marlins: In Zack Duke we trust.
• The Athletics over the Indians: The Indians exploded last night but run Pavano out there today against Mazzaro. Will take Mazzaro.
• The Bay Rays over the Rangers: Two green pitchers in Price versus Holland. Price has better stuff. We'll see.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: Cook has been a chef lately.
• The Orioles over the Angels: Hey it worked for one night. Perhaps it will work again.

Yesterday: 6-9
Week: 39-30
Month: 21-18

Florida Baseball

In two weeks of watching Florida baseball, there is much to be excited about when it comes to baseball down here. The Marlins and the Bay Rays are both exciting young teams. The Bay Rays are probably more talented from top to bottom in their lineup and bench, but the Marlins seem to have better pitching. But watching both the Marlins and the Bay Rays are two different experiences.

Neither team draws well at home. The Bay Rays draw slightly better than the Marlins, whose attendance is down right pitiful. But watching the telecasts for both teams reveals an experience of professionalism for the Bay Rays and a minor league feel for the Marlins. It's hard to pinpoint in just a few words the difference so the Fan will have to figure out a way to get this observation to make sense.

Let's start with the announcers. The Bay Rays' announcers are top notch. Dewayne Staats has been doing play by play for thirty years. He has a full, rich voice with lots of timbre and is excellent in building up a game to its maximum. After being partnered for years with Joe Magrane, Staats is now joined by Kevin Kennedy after Magrane joined the MLB Network. Kennedy is one of those rarities in that he is a former manager who is interesting to listen to. He doesn't spend any time talking about his own career (thankfully and take note Steve Phillips) but he does do an excellent job of describing the nuances of the game.

If those two pros aren't enough, the Bay Rays' in game color guy (and pregame and post game guy) is Todd Kalas. If that last name sounds familiar, yes, he is the son of long time Phillies' announcer, Harry Kalas. Todd is a chip off the old block and is one of the best the Fan has ever seen at doing those in-game cut ins. He dresses professionally and has a rich, interesting voice.

By comparison, the Marlins' broadcast team sounds amateur. The Fan hates to be so negative about a guy like Tommy Hutton, but the difference between someone like Kevin Kennedy and Tommy Hutton is like the difference between Carrie Underwood and Kelly Pickler. Sure, both are paid to be "homers" and they both are. But Hutton just sounds too saccharine and he's like eating pancakes with sugar-free syrup.

The quality difference between Staats and the Marlins' play by play guy, Rich Waltz, is similar. Waltz has been around for a while, but his voice is too high and lacks timbre. In fact, there are often times when the listener can't tell when Waltz is speaking or Hutton. And then there is the Marlins' guy in the stands. He sort of looks like Kenny Rogers and he wears undistinguished clothing. Again, the difference between the Bay Rays' team and the Marlins' is striking.

Hopefully, much of the Marlins' problems will be solved by a new stadium. The Fan liked his one trip to where the Marlins play. But as pretty as the park is, on television, everything looks tacky. Most teams now have those terrible ads behind home plate. They are generally an abomination, but at least most teams have electronic signs. The ones at the Marlins' games look like signs printed on canvas. They are unattractive and add to the minor league feel of the game. Has the Fan mentioned that the Marlins also have scantily clad girls dancing before the game? While a red-blooded man enjoys that kind of show, it does seem to be a bush league sort of thing.

The Fan isn't sure you can do much about this problem, but since there are so little fans in the stands, you can hear individual fans yelling and what they yell is not always flattering or suitable for television. Also, things get so quiet, you can hear the players goofing around in the dugout. And the Fan doesn't know if it's his imagination, but the picture quality at the Bay Rays' games seems much clearer and sharper and more intimate than those at the Marlins' games.

One more difference between the Bay Rays and the Marlins: Joe Madden. The guy looks like a thin version of Drew Carey. He often looks bemused and he is unflappable. Watching him gives the fan and casual observer the feeling that he is totally in control of himself, his team and his situation. He is very impressive. Fredi Gonzalez is a good manager as well, but he doesn't seem to have the personality, presence and polish of Madden.

Grabbing the Tail of Curiosity

If you are any fan of this site and have been reading all along, you know two things. First, the Fan recently read Leigh Montville's, "The Big Bam: The Life and Times of Babe Ruth." Secondly, you know that the Fan has an over active curiosity gland. So when Montville talks about the fog he uses as a metaphor for Ruth's early life and the fog that surrounds Ruth's parents, the Fan couldn't resist. The problem is that this post comes after just a few hours of research on-line and not intensive on-the-ground research that you need. But oh well. You may or may not be interested in what little the Fan did find out about Ruth's family on his father's side.

Montville begins the process with Ruth's father taking the young George Herman Ruth to St Mary's. Montville uses the fog and a metaphorical trolly ride to the boy's reform school very effectively to teach us how little about Ruth's early life we know. But it was the following text amidst that story that piqued this writer's curiosity:

George Ruth Sr.'s parents were both born in Maryland. There is dispute about
where his grandparents were born, either in Germany or Buck's County,
Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania Dutch country. Pick one. If Buck's County is the
choice, the great-great-great grandparents were from Germany. (pg 11)

After spending a night on www.ancestry.com, the Fan can understand the confusion. There is no confusion about Babe Ruth's parents. He was the son of George Herman and Katie (Schaumberger) Ruth. George Herman Ruth Sr. was the son of John S. and Mary Ruth and was born in Baltimore. Katie was the daughter of German immigrants, Pius and Anna Schaumberger. There is even no confusion on John S. Ruth who was born in Baltimore in 1844. You can follow his life in from the 1850 census records of Baltimore on up to the 1900 census. It is John's wife and his parents that are confusing.

Let's start with John's wife. Though Maryland marriage records are available on line, John's marriage to Mary is not recorded so nothing is known about her. She appears with John in the 1880 census and in the 1880 census it seems that the census takers tried to be more accurate concerning the origins of the residents. John is listed as having been born in Maryland but Mary is listed as being born in "Hanover." There is no Hanover in Maryland. There is one in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts and Ohio, but not in Maryland. And, John lists his parents as being born in Prussia. But that is not what earlier records state. We'll get to that in a bit. So who was this Mary, Babe's paternal grandmother?

She was born (according to the 1880 census) in 1845, so searching the 1850 census for "Mary" in any Hanover born in 1845 gives us 77 possibilities. One clue could be the "Herman." There were no Hermans on John Ruth's side. He had no brothers or uncles by that name. So maybe that was a maternal touch. Well, none of those 77 Marys had a father or brother named Herman, so that's a dead end.

The other mystery concerning Babe Ruth's paternal grandparents is if they were divorced. In 1900, John S. Ruth was listed in the Baltimore census records as living with his brother, Frank, and his mother Mary. He is listed as "single" and not "divorced" or "widowed." John S. Ruth Jr. is listed as a lightning rod manufacturer (he had earlier been a railroad clerk). He was not a poor man. So why then, is George Herman Ruth Sr. living on the poor side of town? In 1880, George was working for John in the lightning rod business as a clerk. Was there a falling out? Were they estranged? George Herman Ruth Sr. was later to purchase a bar. That money had to come from somewhere.

John S. Ruth Sr. was born around 1815. Census records from 1850 list him as being born in Maryland. He married Mary Moffitt in 1842 in Baltimore. She was either the daughter of either Thomas or Neal Moffitt, the only gentlemen of that name in the 1820 census in Maryland. But that hardly seems like a Prussian name.

The Fan can pretty much discount the Buck's County, Pennsylvania angle. The confusion there is easy to see as there was a John S. Ruth born in Buck's County in 1817 who did marry a Mary there. But he lived and died in Buck's County. And though his life parallels Babe's ancestor, they are not the same men. Babe's great grandfather, John S. Ruth Sr. was a bricklayer who died in middle age.

So that's as far as the Fan has gotten in one night of fiddling around. There is no idea if this is of any interest to you. It is to the Fan, but then he loves genealogy.

Game Picks - Friday: July 3, 2009

The picker had a case of the blahs. It was one of those blah nights with a short schedule and no games were on television (watching MLB.TV at Mom's is impossible). So this picker spent the night chasing a bone of curiousity (see the next post). This stage of the vacation is the weird stage where half of you is noting that it's almost over and the other half is longing for home and a familiar bed. Ah well. All will be chased away by the pool in an hour or two. It's a tough life, but somebody has to do it.

Here are today's picks:

• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: This one is really tough. Burnett got clocked by his former team last time out but has pitched really well of late. Tallet has been a nice story, but doesn't quite seem good enough to beat the Yankees. This pick could go wrong in a hurry.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: The Cubs are at home and despite some crap lately from Zambrano, he should beat Suppon.
• The Marlins over the Pirates: The Pirates are starting some guy named Morton. What happened to their rotation that was so strong? Even Maholm got whacked last night.
• The Braves over the Nationals: The Braves are making a move and beat up the Phillies. They should do even better against the Nats.
• The Mets over the Phillies: What the heck is going on with the Mets. The Fan assumed they were dead and they win two in a row! Now what? Both of these teams have been wallowing.
• The A's over the Indians: The A's are hitting pretty well these days and have Cahill on the mound.
• The Reds over the Cardinals: On paper, Pineira should beat Homer Bailey. But the Reds are a different team when Votto is in there and they had that thrilling win yesterday.
• The Mariners over the Red Sox: King Felix should be better than Wakefield. But this will be the only Mariner win of the series.
• The Bay Rays over the Rangers: Can't see the Rangers winning with Hunter on the mound.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: De La Rosa has been a bit shaky, but should win this one.
• The Twins over the Tigers: Slowey versus French. French? Who is he?
• The Royals over the White Sox: Grienke!
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Manny is back! Oh stop your moralizing and just enjoy the show.
• The Angels over the Orioles: Santana should win.
• The Astros over the Giants: The Astros are on a bit of a roll and Paulino could win this one against the weak-hitting Giants.

Yesterday: 4-5
Week: 33-21
Month: 18-9

Game Picks - Thursday: July 2, 2009

Well, what do you know, a good day! That was a nice happenstance. It would be fun to keep this going. So without any more useless prose, let's get to today's picks. It's a short schedule Thursday:

• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: Harang over Davis. The Reds are simply a better team.
• The Pirates over the Mets: Redding won't or can't duplicate what Pelfrey did yesterday and a shutout is the only way the Mets are going to win these days.
• The Astros over the Padres: Wandy Rodriguez gets back on track.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: Sabathia completes the sweep over Vargas.
• The Phillies over the Braves: Everyone is picking the Braves in this game and Vazquez but Happ has been really good so the Fan is bucking the trend.
• The Cardinals over the Giants: The Giants just don't have the offense to compete with good teams.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: Hate to pick a team that has Seth McClung starting the game. But the Brewers are a better team right now than the Cubs and their offense will explode after getting bottled up.
• The White Sox over the Royals: The Royals can't do any better than Chen? Whuh?
• The Orioles over the Angels: The Angels are still reeling from the series in Texas. The Orioles (despite last night's meltdown) have been giant killers lately.

Yesterday: 11-4
Week: 29-16
Month: 11-4

A Dearth of Lead Off Hitters

As box scores are checked on a daily basis, this observer finds himself repeatedly asking himself: "Why is THAT guy leading off?" The lead off batter has long been considered the "table setter" and as such, you want a guy batting first who gets on base a lot, is not necessarily a power threat (or else you would want him lower in the order) and if he can run and steal bases, then great. Of course, the modern prototypes are Ricky Henderson and Tim Raines. Those guys could steal bases. But others such as Wade Boggs--who couldn't run except when his mistress was calling--got on base a high amount of the time. There are very few of those guys around now. And far too many teams have guys with batting averages around .250 leading off. Here is a quick run down of the teams around the majors and their lead off batters. Oh wait! Before we do that, let's make up a statistic (just for the fun of it).

The object of a lead off batter is to get on base. This is good for the obvious reason as he is on base so others can drive him in. But it's also good because this guy will get more plate appearances than anyone else on the team. So you want that guy to be worth all those plate appearances, right? Well, here is a stat for you. We'll call it the Lead Off Quotient or LOQ. Now obviously, it would have been nice if the abbreviation was catchier, but oh well. The LOQ would equal OBP + LOOBP. The LOOBP is the OBP of the player when leading off the game. For example, for his career, Rickey Henderson's LOQ was .781 His OBP (.401) + LOOBP (.380).

What about Tim Raines? .748 (.385 + .363). What about Wade Boggs? .798 (.415 + .383). The weakness of this stat can already be seen. While it is an accurate measure of getting on base, both overall and leading off the game, it does not take speed or stolen bases into effect. The stat as it stands now would give Wade Boggs the edge over Henderson. But Henderson was the better player wasn't he? This is why the Fan doesn't get asked to work with Baseball Prospectus.
Hmmm...think...think...

Okay. Let's add base running on a .020 scale divided by total stolen bases and success rate. We'll give .010 points for 40 steals or more, .008 for 30 steals or more, .006 for 25 steals or more, .004 for 15 steals more, .002 for 10 steals or more and nothing for under 10. For the other half of the .020 scale, simply multiply the success rate by .01. For example, Rickey Henderson was successful stealing bases 80 percent of the time or .80. Multiply that by .01 and you get .008. Then give him .01 for averaging 52 bases stolen a year. So then we can add those two to his results above and you get .799 (.780 + .008 + .010). And thus the base running gives him a slight edge over Boggs who gets nothing for his total lack of base stealing. Tim Raines comes in at .767 (.748 + .010 + .009).

There you go. You may be as confused as can be. The Fan barely knows what he is talking about. But now that we have our silly stat called LOQ. Let's finally look at the teams around the leagues...Oh! One more thing. Since we are near the halfway mark of the season, we'll double the current amount of steals to get our results:

Arizona Cardinals: Felipe Lopez - .781 (.356 + .410 + .002 + .008). That's a good score!
Atlanta Braves: They've tried several guys, so we'll have to go with the cumulative numbers - .597 (.329 + .263 + .000 + .005). Obviously, these numbers stink.
Baltimore Orioles: Brian Roberts - .750 (.347 + .387 + .008 + .008). Good score.
Boston Red Sox: Again, they have had several guys lead of. Cumulative numbers - .622 (.318 + .286 + .010 + .008). This is a big weakness for the Red Sox, though they are good at stolen bases.
Chicago Cubs: Alfonso Soriano - .639 (.296 + .333 + .002 + .008). There is no way Soriano should be leading off. No way.
Chicago White Sox: Various guys, so we'll go with cumulative - .758 (.339 + .403 + .008 + .008). Surprisingly good.
Cincinnati Reds: Willy Taveras - .566 (.281 + .268 + .008 + .009). Terrible. Dickerson or Hanigan (though he has no speed) would be better choices.
Cleveland Indians: Various. Cumulative - .605 (.321 + .278 + .002 + .004). Also terrible. Off year for Sizemore and then his replacements.
Colorado Rockies: Various. Dexter Fowler - .594 (.342 + .237 + .008 + .007). Not bad over all, but is terrible leading off the game.
Detroit Tigers: Can't just go by Granderson because he's been other places too. Cumulative - .644 (.331 + .299 + .006 + .008). Granderson really should bat lower in the order. But the Tigers don't have anyone else.
Florida Marlins: The season started with Bonifacio which was a disaster. Now they are using Coughlin. We'll go with Coughlin - .788 (.366 + .414 + .000 + .008). It's kind of unfair to rate him this high as he has only been doing this for 29 games.
Houston Astros: Michael Bourn - .760 (.370 + .372 + .010 + .008). Bourn has been great. He is way above his career numbers which is one note of caution.
Kansas City Royals: Various. Cumulative - .633 (.329 + .289 + .008 + .009). Crisp was okay. DeJesus is not close to being okay.
Angels (not typing out that ridiculous name): Chone Figgins - .715 (.386 + .311 + .010 + .008). Great numbers except when leading off the game.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Various (Pierre won't be leading off once Manny is back) - .784 (.356 + .410 + .010 + .008). Pierre has certainly done well despite his history.
Milwaukee Brewers: Various (Hart, Hardy, et al) - .602 (.329 + .273 + 0.00 + 0.00). Imagine how good they would be if they had a lead off batter.
Minnesota Twins: Denard Span - .722 (.373 + .339 + .004 + .006). Overlooked player. Good score.
New York Mets: We'll go with various since Reyes has missed so much time - .660 (.340 + .303 + .008 + .009). If Reyes doesn't come back soon, this will fall like a rock.
New York Yankees: Derek Jeter - .767 (.381 + .369 + .008 + .009). Having a great year.
Oakland Athletics: Various - .659 (.295 + .355 + .002 + .007). Middle of the road...
Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins - .457 (.250 + .194 + .006 + .007). A mystery. A real mystery.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Have to go with cumulative since McCutchen is so new - .722 (.355 + .351 + .008 + 008). This has been a strength for the light hitting Pirates.
San Diego Padres: Tony Gwynn Jr. has settled in nicely, but not long enough. Accumulative - .640 (.330 + .303 + .000 + .007).
San Francisco Giants: Aaron Rowand - .681 (.359 + .314 + .000 + .008). Not very speedy. But solid.
Seattle Mariners: Ichiro Suzuki - .745 (.405 + .324 + .008 + .008). Ichiro is batting .371 but as always he doesn't walk much. In fact, he has not walked leading off the game all year!
St. Louis Cardinals: Skip Schumaker - .645 (.352 + .288 + .000 + .005). Doesn't do well leading off a game.
Tampa Bay Rays: B. J. Upton - .593 (.330 + .243 + .010 + .008). Terrible at leading off a game. But these numbers will improve a lot before all is said and done.
Texas Rangers: Ian Kinsler - .721 (.344 + .360 + .008 + .009). A good number for a guy who is not having his best year.
Toronto Blue Jays: Marco Scutaro - .758 (.382 + .367 + .002 + .007). Scutaro has been amazing. His season is the most over looked in all of baseball.
Washington Nationals: Guzman has been there but not anymore, so various - .556 (.308 + .250 + .002 + .007). Guzman's unwillingness to take a walk helped lead to this awful number.

The average is .672 which really isn't very good. So the numbers seem to prove out that with a few exceptions, there are not many good lead off batters in the majors. The numbers make you appreciate what Scutaro, Jeter, Lopez, Bourn and Brian Roberts do day in and day out.

Game Picks - Wednesday: July 1, 2009

Holy cow! Did you see that Orioles/Red Sox game? Going into the rain delay, the Red Sox were winning 9-1. NINE to ONE! The rain delay knocks Smoltz out of the game and he pitched great for the Sox last night. After the rain delay, the Orioles knocked around every one of the vaunted Red Sox relievers and scored five runs in the seventh and five in the eighth and won 11-10. Amazing. It just goes to show you that anything can happen in a Major League Baseball game and picking games is strictly a crap shoot. After all, who could have predicted that?

And so June is over and July is a new month. In the spirit of the Baltimore Orioles, who did not give up despite an eight run lead, here are the first picks of the new month:

• The Marlins over the Nationals: The Marlins are 8-0 against the Nationals this year. They have Josh Johnson pitching. All signs point to a win.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Romero has been really good for the Jays. But it will be tough to beat this really hot team.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Beckett restores order to the Red Sox world.
• The Brewers over the Mets: Hey, if Santana can't win, these Mets can't win.
• The Twins over the Royals: Just have more belief in the Twins right now than the Royals even if Perkins is pitching for the Twins.
• The Rockies over the Dodgers: The Dodgers are just trying to hold on until Manny gets back in a couple of days.
• The Tigers over the Athletics: Verlander should have a "pahrty."
• The Cubs over the Pirates: Wells versus Vazquez. Have no clue who is going to win this game. None whatsoever.
• The White Sox over the Indians: Looks like the White Sox are trying to make their move.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: Washburn versus Pettitte in the battle of the crafty lefties.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: Hopefully, Cueto will be on tonight and not all over the place.
• The Braves over the Phillies: Slight edge to Jurrjens over Hamels in this one. Rollins looked sick at the plate again last night.
• The Rangers over the Angels: The Rangers got the job done last night. Millwood will beat Weaver tonight.
• The Giants over the Cardinals: Cain wins his tenth.
• The Astros over the Padres: What a match up: Moehler versus Silva. Another game where the Fan has no idea who will win.

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 18-12
Month: 180-186 Final for June.

Game Picks - Tuesday: June 30, 2009

It was a maunder Monday as the picks came out dead even. Considering that Halladay lost and Porcello lost and this picker actually thought the Mets could beat the Brewers with that AAA team they are fielding, the results are understandable.

Rant: The Fan has been picking games on BallHype.com since Spring Training. During that time, the Fan's overall record there is: 1012-904. That is 108 games above .500. But do you know how many points the Fan has from BallHype during that time? You would think it a positive number right? Nope. The total points accumulated are -14.8. Minus!? For being 108 games over .500? There is a guy on there who has picked his games at 46% and has over a thousand points. So then, BallHype's system is like the federal government where it actually pays to fail. Those that work hard and have a little success are screwed and those that take the easy way out--like picking every underdog every night--are just like those who do so little they qualify for every government handout there is. It's not BallHype. It's BallCrap. Rant over.

Now that we've gotten that off our chests, on to today's picks:

• The Cubs over the Pirates: Like Lilly over Ohlendorf, though the latter has been pitching well lately.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Smoltz gets his first win out of a Braves uniform.
• The Indians over the White Sox: Cliff Lee pitches another good game while a hundred scouts sit in the stands in the lost hopes that the Indians will unload him.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: Joba Chamberlain should be better than Morrow, especially at Yankee Stadium.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Uh oh, here come the Bay Rays and it's pretty scary.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Notice how the Fan has picked all the favorites. So he'll go 10-5 and get -5 points after it's all said and done.
• The Phillies over the Braves: Blanton over Lowe in a great match up. Don't want the Phillies to win, but they will.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: Haran is pitching for the Diamondbacks, but his team is dead in the water.
• The Brewers over the Mets: Johan Santana is pitching, but it's just too hard to picture the Mets beating anyone at this point.
• The Rangers over the Angels: Feldman over Saunders. If the Rangers don't win, it's pretty much over.
• The Twins over the Royals: Baker should be better than Bannister. The Twins are so unbelievably hard to pick. All that talent. Why don't they win more?
• The Cardinals over the Giants: Chris Carpenter over Randy Johnson in a great match up.
• The Astros over the Padres: The Astros win 3-2 with the Astros' three runs driven in by its pitcher.
• The Tigers over the A's: Galarraga should be better than G-g-g-Geo Gonzalez.
• The Rockies over the Dodgers: In a great match up, Marquis squeaks by while Billingsley pitches well in the loss.

Yesterday: 6-6
Week: 16-11
Month: 178-185 Will be a very good thing to get this month over!

Are the Giants This Good?

There was no way that anyone could have predicted that the National League West would have the three best teams in the National League. The Dodgers have had the best record in the National League (and probably all of baseball) since April. The Rockies have surged since firing Clint Hurdle and the Giants have quietly put together a good season. But the Giants seem so ordinary. How are they doing so well and will they continue to do so?

Part of the ordinary feel of the team from San Francisco is that they don't hit very well. Out of sixteen National League teams, they are fifteenth in runs scored, fourteenth in home runs and dead last in On Base Percentage and OPS. In fact, only two regulars have an OPS+ over 100. Several regulars are really struggling at the plate. Bengie Molina has a 78 OPS+ and has walked only three times in 271 plate appearances. Second baseman, Emmanuel Burress has an OPS+ of 49. Others on the wrong side of the OPS+ list: Renteria (68), Randy Winn (82) and Fred Lewis (92). Sandoval has been a pleasant surprise and leads the team with a 151 OPS+.

The strength of the Giants is their pitching. They have two number one pitchers in Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. The two are now a combined 17-4 and each have an ERA+ over 170. Lincecum is simply unbelievable. He now has 134 strikeouts in 114 innings pitched.

But not only do they have two number one pitchers, they have decent three and four pitchers in Barry Zito and Randy Johnson. Face it, neither one are going to give you the fire they had in their best years, but they are better than most three and four pitchers for most teams. Johnson can still strike people out and his K/BB ratio is a healthy 2.78. Zito has a 96 ERA+. If he can stay around the 100 mark, the Giants will be very happy with that. Their only problem so far is the fifth starter. Jonathan Sanchez wasn't getting the job done. But they just got a great start from newcomer, Ryan Sadowski. So if Sadowski can lock down that position, they will be in great shape.

Starting pitching has led to a great bullpen. They have seven relievers with ERA+ figures over 100, most of them way over. And those seven have 159 strikeouts in 187 innings pitched. That's pretty good.

The Giants did score ten runs on Monday night against a good Cardinal team (while Lincecum was pitching another gem) so that is hopeful. But the Giants' hopes are pinned to their top two pitchers and the bullpen continuing to get the job done. Looking at their lineup, they don't have the kind of players that will get much better. In other words, guys like Renteria, Winn and Molina are well past their primes. They could use some more help for their offense. And like a lot of teams, they are one or two injuries away from being a poor team as they don't have any depth.

If the Giants' pitching holds up, they have a good shot at the wild card and it will be an interesting battled the rest of the way with the Rockies to see which team gets that spot.

Game Picks - Monday: June 29, 2009

Aha! The game picker sees how it goes now. The game picker just needed a cloudy day in Florida for the picks to come out right. It was a cloudy day here in Paradise and the picks had their best day in quite a while. Well, it's cloudy again today, so let's keep this ball rolling.

Today's picks:

• The Pirates over the Cubs: The Fan likes Zack Duke in this matchup against Harden. The Cubs just seem so flat and so lost at the moment that this feels right.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Berken is pitching for the Orioles and he's been super since coming up, but he's facing Lester, who figures to be even stronger.
• The White Sox over the Indians: Floyd versus Pavano. Ugh! What a lousy match up.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: The Bay Rays are on a roll, but Halladay is back for the Blue Jays.
• The Mets over the Brewers: Can Nieve go 4-0? He can against Looper.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: The Fish should be so happy to get out of Tropicana Field after a lost weekend that they whack Olsen all over the ballpark.
• The Rangers over the Angels: The Rangers have been stumbling and need this win to remain a factor.
• The Twins over the Royals: Blackburn should be better than Hochever.
• The Giants over the Cardinals: Lincecum over Thompson. It's hard to believe but the Giants have the second best record in the National League.
• The Astros over the Padres: Oswalt should be better than Geer. And the Astros are due for a win.
• The Tigers over the A's: Porcello should beat Anderson.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: The Dodgers have been so-so lately. They are counting the days until Manny is back.

Have a good Monday!

Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 10-5
Month: 172-179

The Great Mariano Rivera

This writer has never hidden that fact that he is a Fan first and a reporter second. What this blog attempts to do is to give its readers informed observations from a fan's perspective. As such, it is impossible to hide the favorite players who creep into those observations from time to time. These players are interesting, inspiring, surprising and have simply touched the Fan in a core place that resonates deeply. Mariano Rivera is one of those players.

There have been very few moments in Rivera's career that the Fan hasn't watched. For all of those years, there has been constant amazement that the man simply throws one pitch and almost always hits his catcher's target. His command and his effectiveness have been enduring and at times breathtaking.

Every year, Rivera has a stretch where people have thought time finally caught up to him. Two bad games and suddenly, he is washed up and not as scary as before. Each year, he has proven those people wrong. Each year, he does his job better than others in the game. In fact, he has now done it 500 times, becoming only the second closer in history to hit that mark. Rivera will probably never catch the great Trevor Hoffman. But Hoffman has never been as good as Rivera despite the record he will forever hold. Hoffman is a Hall of Famer, but he was never a lock in the post season or at the All Star game or down the stretch in a pennant race.

Rivera has been glorious to watch. He has been an inspiration as a humble man with strong beliefs. He has been a thrill ride from his very first season in the bullpen as setup man for the Yankees' closer of that time. Since he took over as a closer, he has very rarely been beaten and when he has been, it has been big news, which only goes to prove how successful he has been.

How fitting that on the night he records his 500th save, he also records his first career RBI. It's been a blessing and a glory to watch this great pitcher do what he does year in and year out. And he's done it better than anyone else longer than anyone else. He is Mariano Rivera and he has now saved 500 games. Enjoy this while it lasts, because you'll never see anyone this good for this long again.

Sweet Lou Gone Sour?

This post is difficult to write. Lou Piniella has always been a favorite ever since his playing days. He's always been a passionate, feisty player and manager in all his years in the game. As a manager, his teams have come in first place six times including two in a row for the Cubs. He won a World Series championship in 1990 with the Cincinnati Reds. But perhaps he isn't the right guy managing the current Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs came into the season after two first place finishes with extremely high expectations. Universally selected to win the division, the hopes of a desperate fan base again hope that this is the year. And it sure feels like the Cubs are playing tighter than a suspected heretic on the rack during the Inquisition. That tightness may well explain the blow ups we have seen all year by Zambrano, Bradley and others. In such a situation, Lou Piniella isn't exactly a loosey goosey kind of manager.

Piniella's intensity is perfect for a team that has lacked a spark for years. The Reds, Mariners and Cubs are perfect examples. He came in at a time when all three of those teams were spinning around and he brought intensity and turned them around. But it is possible that the same intensity wears on his players. The year after his Reds won the World Series, they came in fifth the year after. In Seattle, despite guys like Alex Rodriguez and Junior Griffey, his teams finished first three times, but never sustained that success the year after.

Obviously, the Fan does not have any inside dope on what goes on in the clubhouse or in the heads of the Cubs players. The observation while watching them playing lately is that they are so tight that they can't perform. They seem paralyzed.

Perhaps Pineilla has done all he can do. Perhaps he isn't the right person for this current situation. The Fan feels the same way about Jerry Manuel of the Mets. Manuel's body language is all wrong in the dugout. He is wearing too much on his sleeve. Torre and Cox are great because you can never tell from their demeanor if they are winning or losing. The Cubs, and the Mets for that matter, may still pull it together and win their respective divisions. But this observer isn't sure they can get it done with their personalities and the personalities of their respective teams.

Game Picks - Sunday: June 28, 2009

Another day in Paradise. Last night, the town of Lake Worth had their fireworks. They always set them off the Saturday before the Fourth of July. They were spectacular. Florida seems to do the best job with fireworks of any state in the Union. This picker has sat on the beach of Fort Lauderdale and watched the Fourth of July fireworks set off from a barge just off the coast. Talk about awesome!

Awesome still doesn't describe the picks from Florida. With only one good day out of ten, it seems that Karma is the offset of having so much sun and fun by the pool. Well, this picker will take that trade off any day. Of course, if you are foolish enough to post bets based on these daily picks, you may not feel the same.

Here are Sunday's picks:

• The Reds over the Indians: Warning! Emotional pick for Micah Owings. Didn't Huff just pitch for the Indians the other day? Man, all these days just blur together.
• The Blue Jays over the Phillies: Tallet over Moyer. The Phillies have been playing like crap forever but their one win last night in their last ten increased their lead in the NL East. Incredible.
• The Nationals over the Orioles: Like Lannon over any Oriole pitcher.
• The Royals over the Pirates: Greinke!
• The Braves over the Red Sox: Hanson throws an incredible game and Penny gets rubbed the wrong way.
• The Marlins over the Bay Rays: The Marlins have to win one of these games. Miller over Price seems to be the ticket. One thing in the Bay Rays favor though. Price can't throw strikes, but the Marlins don't walk much.
• The Brewers over the Giants: The Giants sucked wind last night and blew a game they should have won.
• The Tigers over the Astros: Jackson should be better than Ortiz.
• The Cubs over the White Sox: Zambrano should best Danks, who has not been nearly as good as last year.
• The Twins over the Cardinals: Pineiro and Liriano are both questionable. So we'll go for the upset.
• The Rockies over the A's: Cook over Mazzaro. A proposed movie about Moneyball was just axed by the studio. Maybe it's because of how this year's A's have taken a lot of lustre out of Beane's supposed genius.
• The Dodgers over the Mariners: Kuroda was very good his last time out. Of course, he is from the Bedard school of health.
• The Angels over the Diamondbacks: Like this kid, Scherzer, but let's face it, the Diamondbacks stink.
• The Yankees over the Mets: The Mets look positively down and out. Wang will beat them today, especially with Livan on the other side of the match up.
• The Padres over the Rangers: It's too bad the Rangers don't have any pitching besides Millwood and Feldman.

There it is. Now back to the pool!

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 42-50
Month: 162-174

Why Does Wakefield Win?

Let's state right up front that this post takes nothing away from Tim Wakefield. He's found a way to succeed for a very long time with what he can do. What this post tries to deal with is why he is so successful. You see, the Fan watched a good part of Wakefield's game today. His knuckleball, at least early on, was consistently up in the strike zone. The pitches looked like great big lollipops. And yet, when the Braves did connect, they were way out in front and pulled the ball foul. When the ball was fair, it was a squib somewhere for an easy out. Wakefield only gave up three hits.

Understand that the Fan has never tried to hit a knuckleball. Heck, the Fan was forced from his baseball dreams because he couldn't hit a curve. But the Fan was a pretty darn good softball player. It seems to this observer that hitting a knuckleball is a bit like hitting a slow-pitch softball, especially when it's up in the zone.

From this perspective, the problem that Wakefield's victims all have is that they try to pull everything. If you sit back on the pitch, like a slow-pitch softball, and mentally try to put the ball up the middle, then when it is pulled, it will be hit hard and in the field of play.

The second observation: Why don't all Wakefield's opponents move up in the batter's box to take away the last break. From what this observer can see, there is usually a big dip or zag right as the ball is crossing the plate. If you move up in the box, you miss that last big break and--it would seem--have a better crack at squaring the pitch up.

If the Fan was a manager, to prepare for Wakefield, the Fan would bring in a softball pitcher from the neighborhood to pitch batting practice. Let the guys get the feel of hitting something slow with an arc and practice keeping the front shoulder down and attempt to hit the ball up the middle.

It doesn't seem as hard when watching as it must be to actually hit against Wakefield. But it seems that teams could take a smarter approach. After all, the batter already has the advantage in that he knows what's coming. The smarter approach to this writer would be to move forward in the batter's box, stay back, keep the front shoulder down and hit the ball up the middle.

"Yogi Berra: Eternal Yankee" A Review

Thanks in part to commercials like the Aflac barbershop commercial, Yogi Berra is mostly known to this generation as a lovable clown. Most people would know a few of his most famous sayings or "Yogi-isms" but his reputation is a caricature. Yogi Berra has made a lot of money playing off that caricature and so can take a share of the blame. Now a new book by Allen Barra, "Yogi Berra: Eternal Yankee," rightfully restores Yogi Berra as arguably the best catcher of the 20th Century and the most enduring symbol of the best that is the New York Yankees.

Barra, who lives close to Berra in Montclair, New Jersey, has written a true biography chronicling the early life of Lawrence Peter Berra from his youth growing up a son of Italian immigrants on "The Hill" in St. Louis. These young years are interesting and are enjoyable reading, but this reader would have liked more from these years. Yogi quit school after the eighth grade and was considered a leader by his friends at the time, but not a whole lot was written about his early baseball exploits, how he became a catcher, etc. More would have been better here.

Soon after Berra was signed by the Newark Bears, the Yankees' farm team, he enlisted into the navy since he figured he would be drafted soon anyway. Barra reveals a special force that Berra joined to board special boats ending up in the very front lines of Normandy on D-Day that paved the way (at least by a little bit) for the invasion force that is so famous today. The critical and heroic squad earned Yogi medals for his heroism. This unknown side of Yogi Berra was again fascinating and amazing. But again, this reader wanted more. For example, Barra mentions that Berra was wounded, but it does not state where or the severity of the wound or whether it was any hindrance to his baseball career.

Barra does do a great job with Berra's Yankee career and how he started as a raw catcher, how Bill Dickey "learned him all he needed to know," and how his impact was felt immediately on offense. Few would know that Yogi Berra led the Yankees through all those great years in RBIs for seven straight years. Barra also does a great job picking through the complicated relationship with Casey Stengel. The Yankee years are dealt with pretty much one by one and it's a enjoyable romp through the incredible run that the Yankees experienced during the Yogi years. As always, this section was so good that it left the reader panting for more.

A sweet subplot to Berra's transition from player to the coaching phase of his career is his relationship with Elston Howard. It is obvious from the narrative that Berra didn't have any problem's "learnin' Howard what he should know" no matter that Howard would eventually take over as catcher or that Howard was the Yankees' first African American player.

Berra had a successful run as a coach and a manager and won the league championship with the Yankees and the Mets, one of the few besides Tony LaRussa to do that. The fact that Berra lost both of those World Series contests left him one short of the dreams he hoped to accomplish in his career.

This period of time in Berra's life also deals with the rift between Berra and George Steinbrenner and showed Berra as one of the few people whoever dealt with the Yankee owner who stuck with his principles. Berra did not appear at Yankee Stadium for fourteen years until a push by a dying Joe DiMaggio pushed the Yankee owner to patch the rift with Yogi and apologize and bring him back home.

An excellent and intelligent comparison of Berra next to the greatest catchers ever to play the game was well done, fair and very comprehensive.

Throughout the book, Barra shows Berra as a man of intelligence who did well financially on and off the field, who was almost as good a manager as Gil Hodges and Casey Stengel. Barra paints a picture of a humble yet strong individual who more than any other player in Yankee history, ties the generations together with a life led with class, fun and purpose.

This writer has always loved Yogi Berra, but never more than after the full education that Allen Barra gives us. Barra uses a scholarly approach and yet gives us common prose that speeds the reader through the book with amazing ease. Along the way, he gives us a very human Lawrence Peter Berra and gives us a man much deeper, stronger and smarter than the caricature his image has become over the years. Barra's book is important and is a huge triumph.