MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 7, 2013

Both games were picked correctly yesterday though the Dodgers - Braves game did not go according to what I envisioned. Hyun-jin Ryu was ineffective for the Dodgers and they quickly went to Chris Capuano. That decision won the game because Capuano was terrific and he earned the win. The Braves, as we shall see in a minute, are now in big trouble.

The Pirates also have the Cardinals on the ropes, but we shall see if the shortness of their rotation becomes a factor as they lack a shut down guy today and if the series extends, have to come back with A.J. Burnett, who was shellacked in his last outing.

The two ALDS games will be exciting too. The Tigers and A's are tied and the series goes to Detroit. The Red Sox have a chance to sweep the Rays but must do so down in St. Pete. Four big games today. It should be fascinating.

The picks:

• The Tigers over the Athletics: Jarrod Parker is my problem here. At times, he looks spectacular and on others, not so much. His one start against the Tigers this season was disastrous. His home/road splits do not tell us much nor do his day/night splits. I think the Tigers hit him. Anibal Sanchez goes for the Tigers and few people realize what a great season he had. His record does not pop out at you, but he is right there among the leaders in many categories. If he pitches well, the Tigers win.

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: This game completely depends on how Michael Wacha pitches. The young stud pitcher for St. Louis has the kind of arm that can shut down anyone. But he is young and he makes mistakes. If he can limit them today and get off to a good start, the Cardinals win. If he doesn't start well, then anything can happen with the fans in Pittsburgh going nuts. Charlie Morton does not strike fear in anyone. He is a pitcher totally dependent on BABIP or where his batted balls go upon contact.

• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: I see a sweep. Clay Buchholz has been unbelievable this season and if he is good today, the Rays will not get him. I questioned Lackey in Game 2, but as a Twitter pal pointed out, Lackey is better at home and if the Red Sox won, could come back with Buchholz for game, set and match. The only sticking point is Alex Cobb, who has been amazing himself. But that amazing goes against every team except the Red Sox. The Red Sox can make any pitcher look mortal and if that offense shows up, there will be nothing Cobb can do to stop them. Cobb lost only three games this season. One of them was to the Red Sox. Overall, he faced them four times and had a 5.16 ERA against them.

• The Dodgers over the Braves: The Braves are in big trouble and I see the Dodgers closing out the series today. Fredi Gonzalez's decision to bring Alex Wood into the game as a long reliever in yesterday's game means that Freddy Garcia will start for them today. Excuse me while I pause to gag. Oh, Freddy is capable of a surprise good start. He has done it a couple of times this season. But he has given up 18 homers in just 81 innings. Yeah, that's bad. Alex Wood should have started this game and Garcia should have performed the long relief. Of course, Ricky Nolasco had a great start with the Dodgers and kind of petered out as the season went along. But gosh, all he has to do is be ordinary today and the Dodgers should win.

Yesterday: 2-0

Post season: 8-5

Season: 1382-1073

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: September 28, 2013

The American League Wild Card race got much more interesting with the Rays loss to the Toronto Blue Jays last night. R.A. Dickey got the job done much to the delight of the Indians who are now tied at the top with the Rays and it gave the Rangers that much more hope as they are not just one game back. In the NL Wild Card, the Pirates took care of the Reds and are two games clear of the latter team with two games to play. If they win today or tomorrow, they will host the play-in game. Meanwhile, the Cardinals clinched the NL Central with a win over the Cubs.

I got both the Rays and Reds wrong yesterday as well as four other picks. So the night was not as great at the rest of the week has been, but it was still in positive territory.

It is the penultimate day of the regular season. Saturday's picks:

• The Rangers over the Angels: How could you pick it any other way? The Rangers have to win. Losing is not an option. Garrett Richards got popped his last time out by the A's. Derek Holland is the wildcard here. You just never know if he will be great or awful. There is a better chance of the latter at home.
• The Indians over the Twins: Can you ever remember a team just running the table for the last two weeks of a season? It is amazing. They just don't lose against these bad teams. They have two more to go and need them both. Scott Kazmir (woh-oh, woh-oh) over Cole DeVries (rhymes with "he tries").
• The Reds over the Pirates: And now we get to the meatball portion of these rotations. Charlie Morton and Bronson Arroyo will not blow you away. But they will meatball you to death if they are on. I have more confidence in Arroyo.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Chris Archer is a bit up and down for my tastes and it is tough to put the season on the line with him. Fortunately for him and the Rays, J.A. Happ is only good against the Yankees. In fact, the Yankees single-handedly keep his career afloat.
• The Giants over the Padres: The Giants are finishing the season on a roll. Yusmeiro Petit has provided a nice little lift too. He should handle the Padres' lineup and the Giants will score a few off of Eric Stults.
• The Brewers over the Mets: Jimmy Nelson, a 2010 second round pick by the Brewers, makes his first Major League start. He has relieved in three games. He has good strikeout numbers in the minors, but his control seems up and down. I still like him better than Aaron Harang. Heh.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: I make this pick with some reservations. First, the A's have already clinched the second seed with little hope of catching the Red Sox for the first seed. There is a chance they stumble in this one if Brandon Maurer pitches like he did his last time out. Jarrod Parker will not go more than six innings I don't think. By the way, Maurer looks a bit like Jack Lord of the old Hawaii Five-0 series.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: I usually pick against a team after they have clinched and that has worked for me. I call it the hangover effect. And will Adam Wainwright really start this game? There is a chance he doesn't. On the other side, Edwin Jackson tries to avoid his 18th loss.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: There has been no letup for the Red Sox. Rest? Nah. They have four days to rest next week. Jon Lester has been hot. Wei-Yin Chen cannot contain these Sox. I hope Chris Davis hits another homer though.
• The Tigers over the Marlins: How come nobody hates on Jhonny Peralta? It is weird how we choose who we are going to hate and who we don't. Anyway, the Tigers are not exactly playing sterling ball. And Jim Leyland is still pissed about ending the season in an NL park. But Anibal Sanchez should beat his old mates and Nathan Eovaldi.
• The Royals over the White Sox: There will be two guys named Ventura on the field today. Only one of them should have a job next season. That would be Yordano Ventura. He should handle the White Sox like he did the Mariners. Erik Johnson was pretty good his last start.
• The Braves over the Phillies: If Cliff Lee can strike out 13 and give up less than four hits and still lose, what is Ethan Martin going to do? Martin has not been effective since his call up. Mike Minor makes his last start of the regular season.
• The Diamondbacks over the Nationals: Brandon McCarthy has allowed only one walk in his last six starts and has not walked anyone in his last three starts. That's the good news. The bad news is that he has a 14.5 hits per nine innings pitched rate in those last three starts and a 1.33 homers per nine rate for the season. I still like him over Dan Haren. Plus, McCarthy gets bonus points for supporting the Dodgers jumping into their pool.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: It would be easier for me to root for the Dodgers if they hadn't signed Brian Wilson. But anyway, Zack Greinke makes his final start of the regular season and if he wins, will finish 17-3. That's pretty impressive. Juan Nicasio goes for the Rockies.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Yankees over the Astros: How remarkably ironic is it that Andy Pettitte will be making his last start in the majors against a guy named Clemens? Paul Clemens that is. I understand that the other Clemens might be making the presentation of the Astros' gift to Mariano Rivera. Awkward. Anyway, if there was a baseball god, Pettitte should win his last start and Rivera should save it.

Yesterday: 9-6

Week: 52-30

Month: 217-158

Season: 1359-1053

Games of the Day: 104-70

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: September 15, 2013

At least Saturday finished in the black. Not by much, mind you, but in the black as the blahs continue in my picking odyssey. Naturally, Yu Darvish did not get a win. How silly of me to pick him. Naturally, the Cardinals make any left-handed starter look like a god. But congrats, James Paxton. My man, Chris Tillman, pitched a complete game, but he lost. The Royals shut out the Tigers. Okay. And I depended on Gio Gonzalez and he did not come through. So, yeah, it was still a majorly blah result. Again.

Today starts a new week. There are only two weeks left including this one. I cannot believe how it has all flown by so fast. And quite a bit will be decided in the next two weeks. Sunday's picks:

• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: I have not gotten a single game of this series correct yet. And I should probably go with the Orioles. But Mark Buehrle is just the kind of junk dealer that can shut them down. Besides, Miguel Gonzalez has not been that great and the Orioles have lost seven of nine.
• The Tigers over the Royals: I hate when pitchers get stuck at nineteen wins. I have seen it a dozen times through the years. It is just a number. Why does the pressure get to be so much greater? Jeremy Guthrie and the Royals still hope for a wildcard spot. Good luck with that. Come on, Max Scherzer, get it over with.
• The Mets over the Marlins: I predicted a Mets sweep in the double-header yesterday and they split.  But I think I will be correct today because Dillon Gee has had a fine second half and poor Tom Koehler hardly ever wins a ballgame.
• The Pirates over the Cubs: Once again Travis Wood gets to match up against the other team's best pitcher. Good golly, the guy is a really good pitcher, give him a break already. Francisco Liriano has had some bad outings lately though.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: The Nats lost a game to the Reds yesterday in the wildcard race. Can we put an end to that kind of talk. It is such a far-fetched thing. But my guy, Jordan Zimmermann is pitching and he has gotten back on track lately. Tyler Cloyd continues to have a weird name.
• The Braves over the Padres: Apparently, the Braves are not going to shut down Julio Teheran with the playoffs coming. Interesting decision. I am not saying they should. I am just saying that it is interesting. That said, I do not expect him to go deep in the game. Burch Smith will not go deep in the game either for the Padres.
• The Angels over the Astros: Two teams playing out the string. Two pitchers that have had so-so seasons. Take your pick. I will go with Jerome Williams over Paul Clemens though I have no idea. Mike Trout has been quiet lately. He is due for a big game.
• The Brewers over the Reds: The only reason for this pick is Yovani Gallardo at home. He is tough to beat anyway, but even tougher at home. Bronson Arroyo has had a good season, which is sort of surprising at the end of the day.
• The Indians over the White Sox: The White Sox having Chris Sale reminds me of that Armor All commercial where the viking says that the guy doesn't deserve the caddy. The Indians have an OPS as a team that is fifty points higher against lefties. Does that cancel out Sale's greatness? Maybe. Zach McAllister will need to be good either way.
• The Cardinals over the Mariners: The Mariners have really been pitching well as they empty out their minor league prospects onto the big stage. While not a prospect, Erasmo Ramirez has been hugely effective since he joined the rotation. So why am I picking against him? Because I don't think his teammates will hit Shelby Miller either.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: Have the A's dismantled the Rangers or what? Picture the Rangers as the stereotypical cowboy staggering out of the frontier bar after getting his butt whooped. Jarrod Parker is 6-1 in his career against the Rangers. He is 2-1 with a decent ERA when in Arlington. Martin Perez is the only thing standing in the way of an A's avalanche.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: Perhaps it is luck and I would have to study it further, but Jhoulys Chacin has had a very good season and it has gone pretty much out of notice. I think he wins today and that he is better than Randall Delgado.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: This game is trying to sucker punch me. I can feel it. The Giants have played the Dodgers very well over the last couple of games. And I am still under the impression that Ryan Vogelsong is a good pitcher. Silly me. And the awful Edinson Volquez goes for the Dodgers. It is all trying to suck me in for a Giants' pick. But I am going to fight you to the end to pick how I want.
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: Of course ESPN would make these two teams the Sunday Game of the Week. How novel. So why pick the Red Sox? Well, perhaps because Clay Buchholz has not lost a game this season. Perhaps because the Yankees' bullpen has broken down the levy. Perhaps it is because the Yankees have teased us all year and will finally die like we all thought they would earlier. Oh yeah, Ivan Nova goes for the Yanks if that makes a difference to you.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Bay Rays over the Twins: How fortunate has it been for the Rays to hit the Twins when they did? They were scuffling and in danger of falling out of their wildcard lead. Now they have their swagger back. Thanks, Twins. David Price over Pedro Hernandez.

Yesterday: 9-7

Last week: 53-45

Month: 103-92

Season: 1245-987

Games of the Day: 94-67

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: September 10, 2013

The first three completed games yesterday were correctly picked. But then only two more picks would be correct the rest of the evening. Der. The one that galls me the most was the Cubs win over the Reds. If you look at yesterday's picks, I even called it. I said those are the games you have to look out for because a team just finished a big series and will let down on the Cubs. And sure enough, they ran into a good pitcher in Travis Wood and lost. Why did I not pick it that way then!? Der.

Max Scherzer and Jered Weaver did not come through for me (or their teams). Once again, the Rangers could not win a game that was started by Yu Darvish. Give Gerrit Cole some of that credit, though. That was a terrific game. Tiajuan Walker and Jarred Cosart were great but then it became a bullpen game. The Astros initially blew it and the Mariners had a nice lead heading into the ninth and then Lord Danny Farquhar blew it. Der.

Tuesday's picks:

• The Indians over the Royals: The Indians' closer drives me crazy. Perhaps I should direct my emotions toward his dog though. I think Zach McAllister wins this game with the only exception to that thought if Jeremy Guthrie has a really good game. The Indians are simply better than the Royals.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: This pick depends on Ivan Nova to have a dominating performance. It does not seem that any Yankee starter can rise to such an occasion. The last time the Yankees saw Miguel Gonzalez, they roughed him up pretty good. Not very confident on this pick.
• The Phillies over the Padres: If you look at Tyler Cloyd's season, if he pitches against a middling team, he does well. Most of his bad outings have come against really good offenses. The Padres are not a good offense. However, Andrew Cashner is a talented pitcher that can blow this pick up.
• The Blue Jays over the Angels: Mark Buehrle has been really good for a month and a half now and seems to give the Blue Jays a solid effort in every start. Jerome Williams started the season great and then got hammered regularly. He has been pitching a bit better of late. I like the Blue Jays here at home.
• The Braves over the Marlins: Julio Teheran was skipped for a start and the question is whether all that rest will help or hurt him. If he is not sharp, Logan Morrison and Giancarlo Stanton will jump on him. We'll see. Tom Koehler goes for the Marlins.
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: The Rays are finally home after their long and disastrous trip out west. David Price will need to be really good for this pick to come true. For the Red Sox, Clay Buchholz returns. But what will they get from him?
• The Reds over the Cubs: Okay, the Reds had their one-game letdown. Now it is time for them to resume their chase for the NL Central. We all know this division is going down to the wire. Tony Cingrani has been like a good luck charm for me this season.
• The Nationals over the Mets: I hate to pick against Dillon Gee the way he is pitching. But the Nats have finally started to play a little good baseball and Jordan Zimmermann is a really good pitcher for them. The Nats should win either early (the first inning) or late.
• The Pirates over the Rangers: My gut feeling is that the Rangers will be this year's team to fade at the end. They did not address their offense and it is killing them. Francisco Liriano has only allowed one homer in his career (31+ innings) at the Rangers' home ball park and is 3-1 there. He should rebound from his last poor outing. My only reservation here is that Martin Perez always seems to win.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: Erik Johnson was only so-so against the Yankees in his debut. The Tigers will jump on him early. Rick Porcello has to be somewhat effective though, something he has not been for a month now.
• The Athletics over the Twins: I am expecting this game to be a mismatch. Jarrod Parker is starting to blossom a little and has people talking about him. Liam Hendriks will never get into those kinds of conversations.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: I am pretty confident on this one. Wily Peralta has not been good and the Cards' offense should roll. Shelby Miller needs to pitch well though to make this one an easy win.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: The Dodgers will win this game despite Edinson Volquez and not because of him. Trevor Cahill seems to be better than his disastrous first couple of months to the season. I thought Juan Uribe's career was dead. Just call him Lazarus.
• The Mariners over the Astros: I have no idea who will win this game. Joe Saunders is not my favorite to pick and neither is Jordan Lyles. Both teams are not very good at this point. Going with the home team again.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Giants over the Rockies: Jorge De La Rosa has sixteen wins. Has that been a quiet win total or what? It might be because his peripherals do not really match his win total. You would think he would be better on the road than at home at Coors. But it is just the opposite. He is 10-1 at home. His road ERA is almost four. Giants win behind Ryan Vogelsong at home.

Yesterday: 5-6

Week: 15-11

Month: 65-58

Season: 1207-953

Games of the Day: 90-66  +1

MLB Game Picks - Monday: August 19, 2013

Did Ryan Dempster throw at Alex Rodriguez on purpose? Of course he did. If he got suspended because of the act (which he won't because the tensions did not escalate), I am sure he would be glad that he had the appeals process in place. I can certainly understand not liking what A-Rod has done to the game. But the big complaint from players is that he is playing under the appeals process. Excuse me, union members, but that was a hard won victory for the union in the agreement process with MLB. If Marvin Miller is not turning in his grave, I would be surprised.

The point is that the Red Sox and my pick would have been okay if Dempster had not made it personal. Elsewhere, bullpens and lack of runs cost Matt Harvey and Yu Darvish wins after pitching brilliantly...again...and cost me picks...again. The only ray of sunshine of a cloudy day of picks was picking the end of the Dodgers' winning streak.

Monday's picks:

• The Mets over the Twins: Kyle Gibson, like most Twins' pitchers does not strike batters out. That makes him have to be really fine with his pitching. His last four games were not really fine. Dillon Gee, on the other hand, is pitching great but cannot get help from his mates. Tough pick.
• The Rockies over the Phillies: Talk about tough picks. Jeff Manship against Ethan Martin? How do I pick that? I am going with the Rockies because they have a better offense. But it is a total crap shoot on this one.
• The Orioles over the Rays: I do not understand people making fun of Chris Tillman's won-loss record. I understand that such is not the best way to evaluate a pitcher. But Tillman has given up more than three runs just twice in his last ten starts. Anyway, it is tough to pick against David Price, but I like the Orioles at home.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: This game is pretty significant in terms of playoff implications. The Reds, of course, would like to win the division, but they hold a small lead over the D-backs in wildcard terms. I like the Reds at home and the way they are playing lately. Bronson Arroyo versus Randall Delgado.
• The Marlins over the Dodgers; Jose Fernandez has had an amazing season. But if you really want to be amazed, check out his home numbers. He is untouchable at home. Hyun-jin Ryu has been great too and will pitch well. But Fernandez will be dominant.
• The Rangers over the Astros:  Matt Garza has done exactly what the Rangers wanted him to do when they traded for him. He should be fine today. Lucas Harrell has hung in there and taken his lumps every five days. Poor guy.
• The Nationals over the Cubs: The sad truth is that the Nats currently are not that much better than the Cubs. I still can't get over their season. But Jordan Zimmermann is still my guy and even though I like Jeff Samardzija too, I have to go with Jordan.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: The Cardinals are confusing and Shelby Miller is confusing. How good are they? I don't really know at this point. Milwaukee has never seemed that great a place for them to go either. But the Brewers are going nowhere and Marco Estrada is blah.
• The Angels over the Indians: We can pretty much count the Indians out now, right? Right. And though I like Danny Salazar, I like Jered Weaver at home even better.
• The Pirates over the Padres: This pick does not make me feel comfortable. Francisco Liriano has been unbelievable and the Padres' offense is not there. But Andrew Cashner has the kind of stuff to shut down the Pirates too. Going with the better team, but I am nervous.
• The Red Sox over the Giants: After watching the Red Sox a lot, there are some holes on this team. Middle relief is one. Starting pitching is another. But they should win tonight even though they flew all day to get to San Francisco. Jon Lester goes against Tim Lincecum.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Athletics over the Mariners: The Mariners have not been an easy team to play lately. They certainly took it to the Rangers over the weekend. The A's are the weirdest good team ever though and they will win. Aaron Harang will be okay. Jarrod Parker will be okay. The A's win.

Yesterday: 7-8

Week: 7-8

Month: 143-102

Season: 1046-815

Games of the Day: 79-55  -1

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: July 28, 2013

Yesterday was a really bad day for batters in Major League Baseball. There were six shutouts in total. According to @dianagram, that was just off the single day record of eight recorded on June 4, 1972. Four of those shutouts yesterday were of the 1-0 variety. And that, according to the same wonderful source, ties a record that has only occurred two other times (9/18/1915 and 9/2/2002). On the latter date of those two, there were five shutouts total. So as you can see, it was a really bad day for batters.

And it was not just a bad day for batters either. It was also a bad day for game pickers. Let's just say the week ended with a resounding thud. We can call it a market correction. We can call it whatever we want. But one thing you could not call it was pretty. At least one of the very small selections of correct picks was the Game of the Day.

The batters and this picker can only hope that today is better. Sunday's picks:

• The Bay Rays over the Yankees: The Yankees are a bad team. There. I said it. Can anyone dispute it? Nevermind the won/loss record. They cannot hit. They have little zip behind them. They simply are not very good. Today, Derek Jeter returns. Will it make a difference? Will it last?  It does not matter. They will probably get shut out by Matt Moore. It will not matter what Phil Hughes does.
• The Indians over the Rangers: The Rangers are only slightly better than the Yankees right now. They cannot hit either. I do not care what anyone says, the A's are not that great a team. Yet, they will win this division uncontested. Alexi Ogando loses to Ubaldo Jimenez.
• The Astros over the Blue Jays: This game is horrible to pick. The Blue Jays are another dysfunctional group. The Astros are the worst team in baseball. But Jarred Cosart is pitching well. Todd Redmond is not. I hate this pick and this match-up.
• The Tigers over the Phillies: Will the results of this series finally prove to the Phillies' GM that his team has no chance for the post season? Maybe. It should. It is kind of sad that the Phillies and the Yankees hit the wall in the same season. Rick Porcello over Jonathan Pettibone.
• The Marlins over the Pirates: Young guns on parade here as Jose Fernandez takes on Gerrit Cole. Both are going to be stars in this league for a long time. One thing I have learned this season is that Fernandez does not lose in Miami.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Jon Lester should be better than Jason Hammel right? Right? Oy.
• The Mets over the Nationals: Taylor Jordan has not pitched badly. He has only walked four batters. And yet, he is 0-3. I would pick him to get his first MLB victory today except that he is facing Carlos Torres. Torres has been lights out for the Mets since joining the rotation. Do you know that the Mets have a better record than the Giants?
• The Royals over the White Sox: Good golly, am I really picking Bruce Chen to win a start? This day has another disaster written all over it. But I cannot get myself to pick Hector Santiago and the White Sox. I just can't. When will pitchers smarten up and stop walking Adam Dunn? I just don't get why they do.
• The Athletics over the Angels: The bulk of Jarrod Parker's wins have come at home. He is at home. So that seems reason enough for this pick. The second reason is that Albert Pujols is now gone from the middle of the Angels' lineup and while he was not the same, he was at least a presence. The third reason is that Tommy Hanson has to be really fine to win.
• The Giants over the Cubs: Here I go continuing to blythely pick the Giants to win when they lose just about every day. And, I am picking Tim Lincecum to win. Egads, man! Have you no head? And Travis Wood is a good pitcher for the Cubs. I am still picking the Giants to win.
• The Reds over the Dodgers: This has been a fun series. These two teams might face each other again in the post season. They will be closely matched. I am picking the Reds today because I think Tony Cingrani will beat Chris Capuano. But this is far from a guaranteed pick.
• The Rockies over the Brewers: Donovan Hand is another guy who has not pitched badly and has nothing to show for it. But I do not see him succeeding today at Coors and Jhoulys Chacin should get the win.
• The Twins over the Mariners: I sort of like this Kyle Gibson kid. I think he has a good chance of winning today. On the other hand, I do not think much of Erasmo Ramirez despite him getting his first win during his last outing. His team is not always going to score so many runs for him.
• The Cardinals over the Braves: Either the Braves have pitched really well this series or the Cardinals' lineup has hit a wall of sorts. But the Cards can break away with a series split with a win today. I like Shelby Miller over Kris Medlen.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: No matter what else goes wrong for the Diamondbacks, every fifth day is Patrick Corbin Day. And that is a very good thing. Their batters need to be patient against Tyson Ross though because Ross will walk people.

Yesterday: 4-11  Ugh

Last week: 69-49

Month: 197-135

Season: 874-671

Games of the Day: 68-44

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: June 23, 2013

This Game of the Day thing is driving me crazy. To refresh your memory, the Game of the Day is not the most exciting game each day. Rather, it is the one pick I feel to be a lock. Now, in my mind, these picks should never be wrong. But that has never been the case. Back in 2011, the Game of the Day was correct 62.5% of the time. Last year it was 61.5%. The percentage was still higher than the regular picks, but not spectacular. This year has been a disaster. It started well at 22-8 at one point. But now, after a run that has been 24-27 since then (that's right, a losing record for 51 days), this year's tally is 56.8 percent, right around where the rest of the picks are.

Take yesterday for example. The Game of the Day was the Cardinals over the Rangers. Martin Perez was pitching for the Rangers. His career record to that point was 1-5 with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. The Cardinals are one of the best offenses in the game. Easy right? Nope. The Cardinals could only manage two runs on seven hits. Amazing.

Sunday's picks:

• The Twins over the Indians: I am not feeling Carlos Carrasco in this one. Oh no! Does that make this another Martin Perez pick? Have I learned nothing? Only that I will not make this the Game of the Day pick. Mike Pelfrey with the win.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: The Orioles riled up Jose Bautista, and that is never a good thing. Josh Johnson looked dominating his last time out. Yahoo says that Freddy Garcia is starting. MLB.com says TBO. Either way, it is not good.
• The Nationals over the Rockies: I am feeling Ross Detwiler today. Yeah, the odds are against me here. But Jorge De La Rosa is good, but not unbeatable and I have done well with Detwiler when I have picked him.
• The Mets over the Phillies: This should be a lock. Game of the Day, right? Just that I said it should be a lock makes me not want to do it. But gosh, Matt Harvey versus John Lannon? Come on, now, right?
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: I need this game to make my weekly prediction over at It's About the Money, Stupid, to be correct. Besides that, either Ivan Nova or Chris Archer has an equal shot at winning the game or being awful. So take the home team.
• The Brewers over the Braves: I am sick of picking the Braves and them getting shut out. They have an entire lineup of two-outcome players. Not well constructed on offense. It reminds me of last year's Yankees. Plus, I have never been a Paul Maholm fan. Not that I am a big fan of Alfredo Figaro Figaro Figaro. But he did win his last time out.
• The Royals over the White Sox: The White Sox have beaten the Royals all weekend. But I think that James Shields stops the bleeding with a big outing. Besides, I am not in favor of picking Dylan Axelrod on any kind of regular basis.
• The Cubs over the Astros: Jeff Samardzija should shine in this one. He has such great stuff. But then again, Jordan Lyles has gone 4-1 since joining the team. So who knows.
• The Angels over the Pirates: I made fun of Charlie Morton the last time he pitched and he poured salt on my wounds. Did you get it? Anyway, I am still picking against him. But that means I am picking Joe Blanton to win. Egads me.
• The Giants over the Marlins: Matt Cain is 5-3 with seven no-decisions. So, he is only winning 33% of his starts. That's not right. He should be the Marlins, especially with Nathan Eovaldi getting the start for the Fish.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: This series has been epic. Yesterday's game featured double blown saves. How do you pick a game like that? Well, having Mat Latos go against Randall Delgado is one way you break the ice.
• The Padres over the Dodgers: Pay no attention to Chris Capuano's last start. That was against the Yankees and they make all mediocre pitchers look sublime. The better pick here is Andrew Cashner. Would someone like to volunteer to teach Hanley Ramirez how to button a shirt?
• The Athletics over the Mariners: Jarrod Parker has been on a roll lately and I have picked against hime every time. So now I will pick him and he will tank, right? The Mariners start Jeremy Bonderman, whose success has confounded everyone, including me. This is not real, is it?
• The Cardinals over the Rangers: Adam Wainwright should get back to ace-ness in this one after a not-so-ace-like start last time out. Nick Tepesch does not fill me with goosebumps. This is another series that has been terrific.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Tigers over the Red Sox: Hey, Justin Verlander? How does it feel to be the second best pitcher on your team? I think the bum (hehehe) still beats the Red Sox and the Tigers score three or four off of Felix Doubront.

Yesterday: 8-7

Last week: 55-46

Month: 155-149

Season: 618-498

Games of the Day: 46-35

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 22, 2013

Good golly, I feel a rant coming. Statistics will show that Miguel Gonzalez pitched a great game against the Yankees. He went seven innings, gave up two runs on five hits with no walks and five strikeouts. Great game, right? His Game Score will be around 60 or a little higher. But I watched that game. He did not have a great outing. The Yankees hit at least sixteen balls hard. I mean absolutely squared up line drives. All but a couple of them ended up in someone's glove. And why the heck did the Nationals' bullpen have to blow Strasburg's win? That really torqued me. As did the fact that of the four games that went into extra innings, three of them went the wrong way for the picks. It is unfair I tell you!

There were a couple of stupid picks thrown in there. I will be the first to admit that. But picking baseball games is impossible when luck and chance play such a big part in each and every game. Last night's picks went 7-8. They just as easily could have gone 11-4 if balls bounced just a little differently.

Rant over. There are games to pick:

• The Braves over the Twins: This game illustrates exactly what I was talking about. Vance Worley and Paul Maholm pitch for their respective teams and it all depends on where those batted balls go. There will be a lot of batted balls in this one.
• The Reds over the Mets: Matt Harvey will pitch brilliantly, but will give up a run. Mat Latos will pitch brilliantly and give up no runs. The Mets' bullpen will cough up another couple of runs. The Reds' bullpen shuts the Mets down. Ballgame.
• The Brewers over the Dodgers: The Brewers may be a lot of things as a team, but they are always good at home. They need a good game from Wily Peralta. But the Dodgers are so inconsistent offensively that the possibility exists. I am not yet on the Hyun-Jin Ryu bandwagon.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: If the A's played the Rangers for 162 games, their final record would be 160-2. The Rangers simply cannot beat these guys. This feels so much like last year, it is not even funny: Rangers build a big lead in the division but cannot beat the A's head to head and end up out of the playoffs. Jarrod Parker over inexperienced, Ross Wolf.
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: I am still zero for Trevor Cahill this season. Pick against him and he wins. Pick for him and he loses. So this is one of those reverse picks. I think he will get his butt kicked at Coors Field, but if I picked that, he would win. So I will pick the opposite. Jorge De La Rosa goes for the Rockies.
• The Giants over the Nationals: It seems obvious that Jayson Werth is missed in this lineup. Dis his contract all you want, the Nats are better when he was in there. And I think they miss Michael Morse too. Madison Bumgarner over Gio Gonzalez.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Another battle of the Ays. I do not like either pitcher in this one. Jeremy Hellickson has not been anywhere close to dominant. And Mark Buehrle is that antithesis of dominant. Impossible game to predict.
• The Pirates over the Cubs: I really hate picking against Jeff Samardzija. I really like him. But the Cubs do not score when he pitches. Or at least, so it seems. Besides, Francisco Liriano appears to have figured life out and is throwing a lot of zeroes up there.
• The Tigers over the Indians: The Indians are easily the coolest story so far this season. And Ubaldo Jimenez has been much better of late. But Justin Verlander has to be given the pick despite the fact that he has appeared very human lately.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Hiroki Kuroda seems due for a clunker. But he needs to be good in this rubber match of the series. A two-game swing is in the balance. Jason Hammel always seems to pitch the Yankees tough. Interesting game and unpredictable to call.
• The Angels over the Mariners: The Angels appear poised to go on a run. The offense is gelling a bit and all they need is decent pitching. C.J. Wilson will give them that and the Angels could get all over Brandon Maurer. And here comes Mike Trout.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: So much for the Marlins winning two in a row. I must have eaten some bad fish when I picked that puppy yesterday. Cliff Lee should be better than Kevin Slowey. I always want to call the latter, "Slow, Slowey, Sloweyest."
• The Red Sox over the White Sox: The battle of the hoses goes on. The Red Sox had trouble with Quintana last night and Hector Santiago is a very similar pitcher. But Clay Buchholz is a very good pitcher and the pick has to go in that direction.
• The Cardinals over the Padres: Tyler Lyons versus Burch Smith. Uh...What do we go by on this one? Let's see. Burch Smith has already gotten his feet wet in the majors with a few starts. He has gotten a bit bloodied. Tyler Lyons has excellent control from looking at his minor league numbers. But it has not translated to success. I love good control guys though.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Royals over the Astros: James Shields is one of the most reliable pitchers around. He seems to be a logical pick over Jordan Lyles. The Royals need to score some runs for Shields though.

Yesterday: 7-8

Week: 22-20  blah

Month: 161-121

Season: 390-285

Games of the Day: 34-16

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: April 20, 2013

Weather continues to play havoc with the Major League Baseball schedule. Three more games were postponed yesterday. The game in Boston was not weather related and there is not much you could do with that situation other than to call it. But the weather also knocked out the Twins - White Sox game and the Dodgers - Orioles game.

A couple of picks from yesterday were sort of brilliant. The solid outing by Lucas Harrell to win a game for the Astros against the Indians was spot on. Matt Harvey out-pitching Stephen Strasburg was called correctly. And even the Phillies over the Cardinals behind Roy Halladay was a good pick.

But there were surprises that--along with the postponements--helped hold success in check. I remember switching the Yankees pick and that was stupid. The Marlins defeating the Reds was a surprise. And Wandy Rodriguez blanking the Braves for a 6-0 Pirates win was a surprise. The picks ended up over .500 for the first time in three days. But it was not by much.

So I need a good day to finish out the week. Saturday's picks:

• The Dodgers over the Orioles: This is the make-up game from yesterday and I still think Hyun-Jin Ryu beats Jason Hammel.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda has pitched twice in Rogers Center and neither went well. The Yankees' lineup against left-handed pitchers is pathetic. So give this one to Mark Buehrle and the Blue Jays.
• The Reds over the Marlins: How can you pick the Marlins to win two games in a row? Oh, I'm sure it will happen at some point in the season. But still. Bronson Arroyo should be savvy enough to hold the weak Marlins' offense down and Wade LeBlanc is not having fun pitching for Miami.
• The Angels over the Tigers: Yeah. This is the Angels waking up against a good team like the Tigers. Rick Porcello runs into trouble while Garrett Richards has a good day.
• The White Sox over the Twins: This is the same pitching line that was supposed to go yesterday. Why these two teams are not playing a double-header today is beyond me. But anyway, Jake Peavy still is the pick over Vance Worley.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Gio Gonzalez had a baffling and awful start his last time out. His body language was not good either. I hope he is okay. If he is, he should do well against the Mets who do better against right-hand pitching. Jeremy Hefner often looks overwhelmed in the majors.
• The Braves over the Pirates: James McDonald could harness his great stuff and have a big game. But you have to go with his standard, non-command performance. And how can you pick against Paul Maholm, who baffles and wins every time he pitches?
• The Dodgers over the Orioles: Yes, this pick means predicting the Dodgers sweep two from a very tough Orioles team, which seems to be asking a bit much. And Josh Beckett on the mound back against an AL East team is a bit disconcerting. But Wei-Yin Chen was not very impressive against the Yankees in his last start either. And sooner or later, Matt Kemp is going to jump out of his fog.
• The Cardinals over the Phillies: The Phillies have trouble with power pitchers and Lance Lynn would certainly qualify. The only question if Lynn pitches well is how long he can go and if the bullpen will hold the lead. Cliff Lee goes for the Phillies and had a rough start his last time out after two brilliant outings. I think the Cards hit him.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: Some dude named, Hiram Burgos, is making his Major League debut against the Cubs today. All I know about the guy that he is from Puerto Rico, is kind of short and has decent control in the minors. Other than that, who knows. But picking Edwin Jackson to win is sort of against my religion.
• The Astros over the Indians: Yes, I am going to pick the Astros again. Crazy right? Phil Humber was pretty good his first time out. Scott Kazmir starts for the Indians. Kazmir spurs all kinds of shivers and spookiness on my insides after his last couple of years in the majors. Do not get me wrong, it would be cool if he could resurrect his career. But would you expect it?
• The Athletics over the Bay Rays: Jeremy Hellickson is usually okay at home. But I simply never feel him with any confidence. Jarrod Parker is more likely to have a good day for the A's in the battle of the long-A sounds.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: Two unproven pitchers in this one complicate the pick. Will Nick Tepesch fare better than the M's Brandon Maurer? I do not have the foggiest idea. We will find out together.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: The Rockies are hitting well and pitching much better this year. Jorge de la Rosa has a very good WHIP for his three starts and seems a better pick here at home than going with Trevor Cahill. Cahill simply has not found success since leaving the A's.
• The Giants over the Padres: Take Clayton Richard out of Petco and you always have a problem. I never pick him on the road. Then again, picking Tim Lincecum is never a bargain. How many guys will he walk today?

And the Game of the Day!

• The Red Sox over the Royals: The folks of Boston deserve this win. Let us hope they are boisterous and full of smiles today. Clay Buchholz over James Shields. David Ortiz returns for the Red Sox. I wonder if they were better off without him.

Yesterday: 7-5

Week: 39-33

Month: 143-95

Games of the Day: 13-6