Friday, April 22, 2011

Game Picks - Friday: April 22, 2011

Roy Oswalt pitched beautifully. That was good news for the Phillies. And it made for a stupid upset pick. And a certain first place team blew a save and a win upsetting that heretofore correct pick. The Mets won the disabled list sweepstakes with a Chris Capuano start that was brilliant. And Mr. Home Run Baker didn't give up any homers and proved the worthlessness of that pick. Those were the blemishes for Thursday. But King Felix was quietly brilliant (or  the A's simply can't hit). The Cardinals continued to roll. The Dodgers and Red Sox both helped out with extra inning wins. Fortunately, more went right for the picks yesterday than went wrong.

And it's Friday already. It's really true that the older you get, the faster time seems to go. Fridays are always fun though. New series get started, every team plays and there is always lots to consider. Let's consider Friday's games:

  • The Dodgers over the Cubs: Chad Billingsley has only pitched three times in his career at Wrigley Field. But they have gone well. That has to give this pick the edge to the Dodgers. Coleman starts for the Cubs.
  • The White Sox over the Tigers: Comerica Park is perfect for Buehrle with its wide open spaces. And he's pitched well there with a 3.07 ERA. He should be able to hold the Tigers down long enough to beat Verlander.
  • The Yankees over the Orioles: If ever a pitcher was due for a win, it's Sabathia. He is countered by Bergesen, a pitcher that has great days and not so great days. This pick will depend on which of those shows up.
  • The Natinonals over the Pirates: Livan does his thing. McCutchen is out for personal reasons. Karstens is better in relief than as a starter. 
  • The Rays over the Blue Jays: It's hard to figure out what the Jays are doing with their rotation. Cecil and Litsch are sent to the minors and Jo-Jo Reyes gets the start? Doesn't make sense. Hellickson with the win.
  • The Mets over the Diamondbacks: A crappy game to pick as Pelfrey and Saunders have been equally horrible. At least Pelfrey seems to have a chance to improve. Saunders is Saunders.
  • The Marlins over the Rockies: Sanchez struck out eight last time out and is due for a win. Chacin has been great for the Rockies. But the young hitters in Florida get to him.
  • The Rangers over the Royals: A lefty like Francis doesn't have an advantage against Texas with all of their right-handed power. Holland with the win.
  • The Twins over the Indians: Hard to pick against a hot team, especially when Carmona is pitching. But Duensing always keep the Twins in striking distance.
  • The Cardinals over the Reds: Kyle McClellan has been terrific. Volquez is always an adventure for a game picker. Cardinals are hot. The Reds are not. Cards are home. Got to go that way.
  • The Red Sox over the Angels: Dan Haren has been awe-inspiring thus far. But the Red Sox are not the Mariners and they counter with their own ace, Jon Lester.
  • The Phillies over the Padres: The Padres have no bullets in their gun. Hamels with an easy win over Richard.
  • The Mariners over the Athletics: Tough one here. Tyler Ross and Michael Pineda are two good young pitchers. But neither team can hit. They could go twenty scoreless innings. But if the Mariners can give Pineda a couple of runs, they will win.
  • The Braves over the Giants: Tommy Hanson has the kind of arm that can quiet the Giants' lineup. Bumgarner has been inconsistent thus far. Longshot pick here, so beware.

And the Game of the Day!

  • The Brewers over the Astros: Gallardo should have no trouble against the light-hitting Astros and Figueroa hasn't been very good thus far.

Yesterday: 7-4
Week: 38-30
Month: 148-127
Season: 148-127
Games of the Day: 10-12

Thursday, April 21, 2011

When Do We Give Up on B. J. Upton?

B. J. Upton is now 26 years old. You look at him and see his athletic frame. You see the glide in his step, the grace in all he does. You have heard of his promise for more than half a decade now. When he first broke in to the big leagues in full time action in 2007, he hit .300 with an on base percentage of .386 and he slugged .508. His fielding was suspect and he struck out an awful lot (32 percent), but for a first year, you'd take that as a sign of great things to come, right? Despite poor fielding numbers, he compiled an fWAR of 4.4. You might have flinched a bit at his .391 BABIP, but nobody can be that lucky over 600 plate appearances, could they? Perhaps that BABIP told us what we should know now.

It's been all downhill for Upton since then. His batting average slipped 27 points to .273 in 2008. But he did walk 97 times. His homers fell from 24 to 9. His doubles rose from 25 to 37. His stolen bases increased to 44. And his fielding metrics were terrific. You'd still take that and continue to think a star was on the rise, right? His fWAR was actually higher that 2008 season and rose to 4.7. So far, everything about Upton seemed to point to stardom.

It didn't happen. It still hasn't happened. If you combine his two seasons of 2009 and 2010 covering 1,236 plate appearances and 1,096 at bats, his batting average has been .239. His on base percentage has been .318 and his slugging percentage, .398. He still stole a lot of bases. His defense suffered, particularly in 2010. If we look at Upton's wOBA history, it's been on a sliding scale for four years. It reads: .387, .354, .310, .337. The rise in 2010 accounts for a return of some of his power as he hit 18 homers, the most since 2007.

At some point, you have to raise the question: Is this all he is going to be? And the equally troubling question: Has the B. J. Upton we've been waiting for a myth? All of which ultimately leads to the question of how long we continue to believe our dream of the Upton that could be and finally settle on the fact that he is more of like he is now. Should we give up on him?

The Fan still grapples with the question. Whenever you see him play, his ability to the eye and his grace scream, "STAR!" But he hasn't been a star. Does he need a change of scenery? Is he a somewhat better Mark Reynolds that just needs to move on? Pouring over his statistics lead to more questions than answers. For example, his strikeout rate refuses to come down. It was 30.6 percent in 2009 and 30.5 percent in 2010. But then again, he doesn't swing at pitches out of the strike zone. His career rate is 19.4 percent, which is more comparable to Lance Berkman than Miguel Montero. His rate did increase noticeably in 2010 to over 25%. But that doesn't indicate a total lack of plate discipline.

So what is it then? Is it the quality of his contact? There may be something to see there. His line drive percentage has shrunk alarmingly. His first full season, that figure was at 19.8 percent. The last two seasons, his line drive percentage has been 15.4 and 16.6 percent respectively. Meanwhile, his infield fly ball rate (pop ups to the infield) has risen from 5.4 percent his first full season to over 8.0 percent the last two seasons.

His split stats are also revealing. The simple fact is that he cannot seem to hit right-handed pitching. Last year, his OPS against pitchers from that side was .664 while his OPS against lefties was .919. He was better against right-handers than left-handers in 2009, but it was by far his worst season in the majors. In 2007 and 2008, his splits were nearly identical. And so it seems that scouts and pitchers have seen something they have exploited the last two seasons and Upton and his coaches have not been able to make the adjustments.

Just in case you still think this Fan is overstating the case, if we look at fWAR for last season among center fielders, here is a list of some of the center fielders that were more valuable than Upton last season: Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Shane Victorino (who had a really down season), Austin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Colby Rasmus, Torii Hunter, Michael Bourn, Chris Young and Angel Pagan. Wouldn't you look at Upton and think he was better than some of those guys?

So how is this year going? Unfortunately, it is more of the same. His OPS before Thursday night's game was .696. He went 0-3 with a walk and a strikeout, so those numbers won't change much. It's frustrating. It has to be for Upton and it has to be for his team and its fans. He should be better than this. Why isn't he batter than this? Perhaps we are at the point where the Rays have to simply cut their losses and simply get as much value for him as they possibly can. It's obvious that the team can't simply wait forever for the promise that may never be delivered.

The Washington Nationals Are Poorly Named

Image is everything in this day and age. Everything has to be catchy and up-tempo. Products need to be buzz-worthy and brand names need to roll off your tongue. The Washington Nationals have a poor product name. It's too stodgy and conservative. Plus, it suffers the most because it doesn't really mean anything. Take, for example, the Texas Rangers. That's a cool name even if steeped a bit in sleepy history. At least it's cool history of a bunch of mean hombres that rode around on fast horses shooting bad guys without asking questions first. But the Nationals? What does that mean?

Yes, we know that the "Nationals" hearkens to the "nations capital." But is that cool like the Rangers? Or the Pirates? Or the Reds? Check that. The "Reds" is a really stupid name and is lucky it outlasted the Joe McCarthy era. Anyway, you get the idea. How can you ever get excited for a brand with a heavy name like the Nationals? You can't. It speaks of old era and lead weight. It causes us all to remember that Washington doesn't work very well and hasn't in quite a long time. It centers itself in an area that many across America view with scorn and acrimony. We are "nationalistic" in our sympathies, but against our nationalistic government that we view as too large and too unwieldy.

It is an upgrade from both prior versions of the Washington "Senators." Now that's worse. Raise your hand if you are fond of most of our nation's senators these days. Don't see many hands out there. Oh, sure, the Senators could bring back thoughts of those Romans. But those senators took out Julius Caesar and we all loved him. So even that didn't work.

New York's national league team has a problematic name. What is a met? But we all know that is short for Metropolitan. And the New York Metropolitans would have been just as stodgy as the Washington Nationals. So the "Mets" was a good replacement for that. But again, the Mets have an image problem and that name doesn't help. Their predecessors, the Giants and the Dodgers, had exciting names. The Mets are kind of inert next to those two names, right? Plus, when they are going poorly, it's too easy to rename them the Mutts. That's not good.

The whole point of discussing the Mets is that the name really doesn't help the New York team that shortened down a overbearing and longer name. Many Washington fans simply call them the "Nats." And while "Nats" is cooler to say and rolls off the tongue better, they become synonymous with pests. Nats are pests right? Well, gnats are. Is that what you want your team to always be considered? Pests? Even in its best connotation, pests are "gamers" that play above their ability and pester the supposedly more talented team. No, you want your team to signify being dominant when they are good. The Giants may not have always been giants, but when they were giants, they were Giants, not pests.

Now the Nationals aren't alone. What good is naming a team the Athletics? Isn't that kind of stupid? All ball players are athletes, even the worst of them. But when you shorten that name to the "A's," that becomes cool and allows them to wear cool yellow home jerseys and white spikes. So, even if their full name is stupid and meaningless, their nickname isn't. The Nationals are meaningless and their nickname equals pests.

And Washington has never had a good sports name. The "Redskins" are not politically correct. The "Generals" doesn't work. The "Capitals?" That's as bad as the "Nationals." The aforementioned Senators were not a cool name. If a team is going to represent something as myopic as our nation's capital, then it has to have a cool name.

Another problem with naming this Washington Nationals team is that there are two Washingtons. There is the state, which avoided the problem by naming their team for the city in which they play (Seattle). And then there is the city that houses our government. But "Washington" isn't even its name. It's Washington, D.C. And it's bad enough that none of us actually understand why our nation's capital has such a city name. To name a team after said city doesn't help. And even if the city was named after our most famous founding father, George Washington has an image problem too. He is known far more for his wooden teeth and his imperious and imposing portraits that we saw as kids to have any kind of warm fuzzy about him. He has a stodgy image which belies the swashbuckling and interesting character that he was.

So nothing works here. Last year, the Stephen Strasburg phenomenon was cool. Having him play for the Washington Nationals sapped some of that cool. The image we have of Bryce Harper is cool. But he is a prospect for the Washington Nationals, which isn't cool. So say someday this team actually becomes a good team. A lot of that buzz will be dissipated by having such a boring and nondescript name.

But there is a problem with a baseball team name. Once it arrives, it is set in stone because baseball is all about setting itself up as enduring and timeless. Change doesn't happen quickly. And when big changes happen, they don't always happen all the way (hello DH). So once an MLB team has a name, how dare you ever consider changing it? But it shouldn't be so. The Cleveland Indians need to change their name and their awful logo (Chief Wahoo must die). And the Nationals need to change their name.

What would you name them? The DC ACs? The DC Electrics? This Fan doesn't have an answer. You need a marketing team to help you with that. But anything would build a more image-conscious rallying point than the Washington Nationals do. This Fan didn't mean to pick on the team and its fans. There is empathy for those fans as all fans of baseball are passionate and nuts about their team. We root for them to have their day in the sun. We just don't want that glorious day to be dappled in the gray of a name like the Nationals.

Game Picks - Thursday: April 21, 2011

Remembering that Tuesday's picks were brutally bad, last night's games were watched with great interest for their redeeming value. And since there were an unusual plethora of games for the day (17 games must be a near record), there was plenty of chance for success. Imagine then the excitement built when at one point, the picks reached a 10-2 margin. The only blemishes to that point were a non-win by the Cardinals in the first game of their double-header and a good pitching performance by Clay Buchholz and a timely hit (imagine that!) by Carl Crawford. 10-2! That was grand. Then the Pirates lost. The Mets lost (see the scathing post on their stupid bunt attempt in the ninth). The Rangers lost and the Braves lost (again!). Crap! Mediocrity seized what has been a great start.

Oh well. It wasn't that mediocre and it sure beats getting smacked in the head with a two by four. There are eleven games on the schedule, which isn't bad for a Thursday. Somehow, those pampered Yankees get their second off day in the same week. Here's a look at the day ahead:

  • The Reds over the Diamondbacks: The Reds have looked dormant of late. But Leake should steal a win (get it?) and Hudson is building a record that is the reverse of his record with the D-backs of a year ago.
  • The Cardinals over the Nationals: Kyle Lohse might just build a case for comeback player of the year. But that would assume that his career had more good in it than bad. So check that. But he'll win today over Gorzelanny simply because the Cards have an offense.
  • The Dodgers over the Braves: The Fan has been consistently picking the Braves in the belief that they are supposed to be a good team. They haven't been. Jair Jurrjens was very good last time out but his velocity is still strangely missing. Going with Kershaw here because his velocity is never missing.
  • The Bay Rays over the White Sox: The Bay Rays are the first team in history to go 1-8 in its first nine games and then go 8-1 in its next nine games. That perfect symmetry would be great if they lost tonight. They won't. Niemann over Floyd.
  • The Orioles over the Twins: Scott Baker has hit an eddy. Get it? Baker Eddy? Oh nevermind. We'll stick with Home Run Baker, which is what Scott always is early in the season before he hits his semi-stride that always keeps him in the major leagues. But at least he throws strikes and pitches to contact, right TCM? Guthrie gets the win.
  • The Astros over the Mets: Boy, do the Mets suck right now or what? Happ over Capuano.
  • The Marlins over the Pirates: Good pitching sometimes snowballs and after two big games by Johnson and Nolasco, Volstad wants in on that act. His current ERA is 5.59 while McDonald's is over seven. But for those of you that think Bonifacio is going to keep hitting .364? Get over yourself.
  • The Indians over the Royals: Is Josh Tomlin's 3-0 record and 2.75 ERA a bit of a fluke? Yes. Is Sean O'Sullivan's 5.00 ERA? No. Thus, the rub.
  • The Red Sox over the Angels: Josh Beckett is on fire. Tyler Chatwood had a good start his last time out, but the Red Sox eat those kinds of pitchers alive.
  • The Padres over the Phillies: The upset pick of the day. Like the idea of Latos winning at home and don't like the nagging thought of Roy Oswalt pitching after his back went lame the last time out.

And the Game of the Day!

  • The Mariners over the Athletics: Will the real Felix Hernandez show up? If he doesn't, this pick will look mighty stupid. McCarthy goes for the A's.

Yesterday: 11-6
Week: 31-26
Month: 141-123
Season: 141-123
Games of the Day: 9-12 (going backwards again)

When Not to Bunt

The New York Mets haven't exactly set the world on fire to start the 2011 season. They went into Wednesday night's game 5-12 with a terrible home record. After an off season filled with controversy, that's not exactly the kind of start they hoped for. They played against the Houston Astros. The Astros are a plucky team that seems to continually play over their head. But they aren't a contender by any means. The Mets, meanwhile, have already appeared to be in panic mode. They had a game a few days ago that they just had to win. And so they had two starters (Dickey and Capuano) make relief appearances to try and get it done. That, friends, is panic.

That very same R. A. Dickey who relieved to help win that must-win situation the other day started the game Wednesday night against the Astros. He got off to a rough start and gave up three runs in the second inning. It was just one of those innings. A walk here, a wild pitch there (a wild pitch for a knuckleball pitcher? No way) and a couple of dying quails plated the runs. Dickey settled down after that and held the Astros scoreless until the eighth inning.

Meanwhile, the Mets clawed back in the game against Bud Norris. Norris is from Georgia and his name...Bud...just seems to fit, doesn't it? Anyway, Beltran plated a run with a double and later Daniel Murphy hit a two-run homer in the sixth to tie the game. Right about then Fangraphs.com's win probability chart went decidedly over the the Mets side of the chart. So the Mets were right in this game.

Dickey, who had been very good from the third inning through the seventh, gave up a massive home run by Pence. The Astros then had a win probability just barely on their side. When the Mets didn't score in the eighth, then the win probability took a definite slide in the Astros favor. Old friend, Jason Ingringhausen, pitched a scoreless top of the ninth and this is where our story really begins.

Brandon Lyon was called upon by the Houston Astros to close the game. Lyon isn't your lights-out kind of closer. He's struck out two batters in five innings of work. In other words, he's not going to blow you away. But the odds beginning the inning were already 91 percent in the Astros favor because that's how often any team wins when leading going into the ninth inning.

But Jose Reyes led off the bottom of the ninth with a single. At that point, the Mets' chances of winning jumped from nine percent to about 32 percent. With Lyon already owning a 25 percent line drive percentage, you have to feel better in the Mets' dugout at that point. The next batter is Josh Thole, the promising young catcher. The Mets obviously believe in his ability because he was batting second in the order, right?

It's obvious that the Mets were worried about a double-play. And the Fan gets that. Brandon Lyon throws to a lot of ground balls. He's sitting at 50 percent this year and 42 percent for his career. Meanwhile, Thole has hit a lot of ground balls. Of all the balls Thole has put in play, 64.9 percent of them have been grounders. Yet, he's only hit into one double-play all season. But you can understand the concern, right?

So Terry Collins, the manager of the Mets, gets that old, unofficial rule of play book out of the dugout closet that says you play for a tie and then take your chances. So he had Thole bunt. There are several problems with that decision. The first of which is that even if Thole is successful in his attempt, you actually decrease your chances of scoring a run when you give up an out. That's already proven. But the ripeness of this call goes beyond that.

Can you guess how many successful sacrifice bunts Josh Thole has executed in his short major league career? That would be none. If you go back to his minor league career, he had one each in 2008, 2009 and 2010. So you are asking a guy who doesn't have a great deal of bunting experience to bunt Reyes to second despite the fact that giving up an out hurts your chances AND despite the fact that Lyon isn't a stud closer.

And sure enough, this questionable decision turned into the worst possible outcome. Thole popped the bunt up, Reyes was doubled off, then there were two outs and the Mets' win probability sank to 95 percent. Sure, you would like to think that a professional baseball player could get a bunt down. But pitchers bunt all the time and often fail. It happens. Don't blame Thole. Blame the decision.

There is another element to this decision: The runner on first. Jose Reyes is fast. He's stolen six bases this season without getting caught. Meanwhile, J. R. Towle (why are there so many dang initials in baseball now?), the Astros' catcher, has thrown out 20 percent of base steal attempts this season and only 28 percent for his career. So you have a successful base stealer against an unsuccessful catcher and that adds up to an 80 percent chance that Reyes will be safe at second, which is where the Mets wanted him. That's a risk. Sure. But a good one compared to bunting a guy who is not used to bunting in a situation where the game is on the line.

At the very least, the Mets could have just let the inning play out and see what Thole and Wright could do with a non-dominant Brandon Lyon. But they chose to bunt. They chose to bunt because they are in panic mode when it's way too early for that. But that fits the mold for Terry Collins, who has always faced each game with a do or die attitude. Frankly, the Fan has said this before the season and repeats it now. Terry Collins is not the right guy for this team. Not under these circumstances. The Fan isn't saying he's a bad manager. This just isn't the right situation. The bunt by Josh Thole seems to be a symptom of the general problem.

This Fan hardly ever thinks the bunt is a good idea. The Fan's wife spits at the television screen whenever somebody bunts. She's right. If bunting is very often a bad idea, this particular bunt was a terrible idea.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Game Picks - Wednesday: April 20, 2011

Yesterday was brutal. How brutal? Let's call it, don't-even-want-to-talk-about-it brutal. Elite closers failed, aces pitched like scrubs. Scrubs pitched like aces. Awful. It's days such as Tuesday that makes the Fan question whether he ever really know anything about this game. Humbling. Seriously.

But when falling off a horse, the best thing is to get right back up and mount it again. So here are Wednesday's picks:

  • The Phillies over the Brewers: The Brewers have had the best of the series so far and even beat Roy Halladay handily, but Cliff Lee can shut them down and the Phillies win despite Narveson, who has been outstanding thus far.
  • The Cardinals sweep the double-header from the Nationals: Rained out yesterday, Westbrook still beats Lannon and then later, Garcia beats the hard luck Zimmermann.
  • The Cubs and Padres split their double-header: The Cubs knock out Moseley in the first game. Garza gets his first win. Harang wins the second game over Russell.
  • The Rockies over the Giants: A low scoring game with De La Rosa out-pitching Matt Cain. The Giants have already taken the first two games of this series.
  • The Athletics over the Red Sox: Brutal umpiring yesterday masked the fact that Oakland pitching dominated the Red Sox. It doesn't get any easier with Gio Gonzalez on the hill. Clay Buchholz has not been sharp thus far.
  • The Tigers over the Mariners: The Mariners spiked the Tigers yesterday and two pitchers, Bedard and Porcello, are both winless. Something has to give.
  • The Bay Rays over the White Sox: The Rays are on fire and could reach .500 today. Wade Davis gets them there and beats Humber.
  • The Orioles over the Twins: The Orioles snapped an eight game losing streak against the Twins, who are struggling mightily. Britton over Blackburn.
  • The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Colon gets his first start. The Jays counter with Brett Cecil. Cecil's velocity was up against Boston, but the Yankees should win the game barring another closer meltdown.
  • The Diamondbacks over the Reds: Where are the Reds right now? Ian Kennedy out-pitches Bronson Arroyo.
  • The Mets over the Astros: Norris confounded last time out and pitched really well. Still think the Mets will get to him. Dickey has lost two in a row. Think he'll win tonight.
  • The Pirates over the Marlins: The Marlins are 9-6 and the Pirates 6-9. But Morton has been surprisingly good and beats Nolasco, who has been spotty.
  • The Rangers over the Angels: Great pitching match up here. Weaver has been dominant and is 4-0. Harrison has been dominant and is 3-0. Going with the home team: Texas.
  • The Indians over the Royals: Each team has won a game in this series. The thinking here is that the Indians score more off of Hochevar than the Royals can score against Masterson.

And the Game of the Day!

  • The Braves over the Dodgers: The Braves are really scuffling, but Lowe is consistent. The Dodgers give the ball to Jon Garland. That didn't exactly go well the last time.

Yesterday: 3-10 (ugh)
Week: 20-20 (well, it was a good week)
Season: 130-117
Month: 130-117
Games of the Day: 9-11

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Mitch Moreland is in a Perfect Situation

Mitch Moreland has flown under the radar for most of his time in the majors thus far. For years, the Rangers have struggled to find someone to play first base and cement that position. Smoak was supposed to be that guy. That didn't work out and Smoak was used to get Cliff Lee from the Mariners. Then the Rangers tried Chris Davis and after 45 games, he was batting under the Mendoza Line. By the time the Rangers tried their third option, Mitch Moreland, there weren't many expectations. But Moreland quietly stepped in and put his stamp on that position for perhaps years to come.

Moreland's 47 games for the Rangers at the end of last year were more solid than spectacular. He batted .255. And while that's not great, it was better than his predecessors. But Moreland was also surprisingly patient at the plate and hit nine homers in his 47 games and finished with a respectable .833 OPS, good for a 121 OPS+. But where Moreland really shined was in the post season. Moreland had a slash line of .348/.400/.500 in the post season and was really the only Rangers' threat in their weak World Series showing.

Despite Moreland's post season, analysts were not overly optimistic on his 2011 season. ZIPs pegged him with a final OPS of around .780 while Baseball Prospectus predicted an even smaller .779. In fact, BP indicated that Moreland would finish with a negative WARP. Part of that was his defensive projection, which wasn't optimistic.

So far, Moreland is making those projections look silly. He's already accumulated 0.5 WAR in just thirteen games, his defense looks much improved and his current .931 OPS and 155 OPS+ look mighty fine. To be sure, it's way too early in the season to make any kind of call on how Moreland will finish, but the early signs are very good.

The great thing for Moreland is that he is in a perfect situation in Texas. He can just be another cog in a powerful offensive wheel. With guys like Kinsler, Hamilton (when he's not hurt), Cruz, Young and Beltre in the line up, there is no pressure on Moreland to be a linchpin. Compare his situation with Jason Heyward, who the Braves need to be a star because Chipper Jones and Dan Uggla are the only other legitimate threats in that line up. Moreland doesn't have that kind of pressure to perform.

And Moreland has a history of fighting up hill. Only 25, he was only a 17th Round draft pick who has already beat long odds. He hit well in every level of the Rangers' minor league system and his minor league totals feature a slash line of: .313/.383/.509. With those numbers, which are pretty darn close to what he is doing now, there is no reason to think he can't replicate that in the majors.

Digging a little deeper into Moreland's numbers, he's successful on every pitch type except for the split-fingered fastball and the knuckleball, two pitches he won't see all the much. Since he's young, pitchers only throw him about 56 percent fastballs, but he handles the slider and curve just fine so that strategy isn't working for the pitchers thus far.

The one concern is how Moreland will fare against left handed pitching. He's only had three plate appearances this year and the Rangers seem more apt to slide Napoli or Young over to first when a tough left hander is pitching. The Rangers are probably basing that on Moreland's less than stellar .604 OPS against lefties last year. But that was in only 23 plate appearances. The Rangers should give him more at bats against lefties so he can show what he can do against them. If the team's current strategy holds up, Moreland will only play 80 percent of the time during the course of the season.

But again, Moreland is in a perfect position in Texas. He's not asked to be one of the stars. He's not in the limelight. And he is thriving. This observer thinks he will thrive all season long and for many seasons to come.

Game Picks - Tuesday: April 19, 2011

Monday was a very good day. The picks were well on the plus side. In fact, only three were wrong and in hindsight, sort of dumb. The Red Sox always win on Patriots Day and it should have been obvious that the Blue Jays are too full of free swingers to test Dice-K. The Pirates continue to confound and beat the Reds again. And those Orioles are sinking fast. But with those three blips on an otherwise successful day were just that. The Indians are now tied for the best record in baseball. How long do we ride the wave?

Tuesday brings us back to a full slate of games. Perhaps this picker can build on Monday and have a big week:

  • The White Sox over the Bay Rays: This Fan has more faith in Danks than Shields and though both are pitching pretty well at home, homers make the difference for the White Sox.
  • The Phillies over the Brewers: Don't think you can ever pick against Roy Halliday. Pick him and you'll be right seventy percent of the time. Wolf with the loss for the Brewers.
  • The Twins over the Orioles: Arrieta got beat up his last time out and Pavano should give a professional outing for the Twins.
  • The Yankees over the Bay Rays: Burnett is 3-0 and pitching well. Drabek is tough, but will yield just enough for the Bombers to win.
  • The Diamondbacks over the Reds: LeCure is not pitching against San Diego this time and the D-backs can hit. Galarraga is difficult to predict. The Reds are scuffling though.
  • The Mets over the Astros: Toss up game. Niese and Wandy have both struggled. One of them has to win. The Mets have a good line up against lefties.
  • The Marlins over the Pirates: The Fan got burned picking against Josh Johnson last time. Like a child, the Fan learns not to touch the burner again. Maholm with the loss.
  • The Rangers over the Angels: Colby Lewis is great in big games and this one qualifies. The Angels counter with Matt Palmer, who is really no better than Kazmir.
  • The Cubs over the Padres: Dustin Moseley is 0-3 despite an ERA under two. He might pitch better than Russell for the Cubs, but will the Padres score enough? No.
  • The Indians over the Royals: Chen is bound to hit a rough patch here. Jeanmar Gomez comes up from Triple A to pitch, but he's not some young kid. He's 32 years old and he handles himself well.
  • The Cardinals over the Nationals: The Cards will out slug the Nats as Lannon and Westbrook don't exactly throw a pitcher's duel.
  • The Rockies over the Giants: Ubaldo is back in his house. Sanchez with the hard luck loss.
  • The Athletics over the Red Sox: The Red Sox traveled across he country yesterday. Not an easy thing to do. Lackey has not been good. Anderson should be better.
  • The Tigers over the Mariners: Coke should be better than Fister. Tigers offense is definitely better.

And the Game of the Day!

  • The Dodgers over the Braves: Starting to worry about this Braves team. Beachy hasn't been effective. Kuroda has been except for his last start. The Dodgers finally got themselves a left fielder in Jerry Sands.

Yesterday: 8-3
Week: 17-10
Month: 127-107
Season: 127-107
Games of the Day: 9-10 (almost caught up!)

Monday, April 18, 2011

Pluses and Minuses of the Rockies Hot Start

The Colorado Rockies are off to the best start in the majors. With twelve wins against only three losses, they certainly look great in the first two weeks of the 2011 season. And since this particular writer picked them to win the National League West, that pick is looking pretty smart. But it's certainly early. The Giants aren't going away and the Dodgers are playing with more animation than last year and have good rotation pitching too. And since this writer is always looking for the sky to fall (it's been a tough three years, man), it felt like a good idea to check in with the team and to look a bit more closely. What do the early statistics say about this team. What are the pluses and minuses to the team's early start. Let's take a look.

The Pluses:

The Rockies currently have almost a completely neutral home/road split. That's nearly unheard of in their recent history and maybe their entire history. The team has a .789 OPS at home and a .794 OPS on the road. Compare that to last year when the splits were an .866 OPS at home and .654 on the road. If the Rockies can maintain that kind of road success, they will stay in good shape.

Troy Tulowitzki is healthy and is on pace for an MVP-type season. Tulowitzki has shown what he can do in the past when he is healthy but he hasn't been able to stay in the line up all season. If he can stay healthy this season, he will show that he is the best player in the National League (with all due apologies to Albert Pujols).

The Rockies are currently second in the National League in on base percentage. Three of their regulars (Chris Iannetta, Tulowitzki and Jonathan Herrera) are among the top eight in the majors in walk percentage. Of course, they are balanced out a bit by guys like Jose Lopez (no walks in 46 plate appearances). But overall, they are a patient team that drives the pitch count up on opposing teams.

The Rockies have built this success without their best pitcher. Ubaldo Jiminez has only made one early start and has been out with a finger problem. He is due back soon. Despite his absence, they are getting great work in the rotation by guys like Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge De La Rosa and Emil Rogers. The Fan said in the pre-season that the Rockies success would depend on their rotation. So far, so good.

The bullpen is humming along nicely. Street, Belisle, Betancourt, Lindstrom and Reynolds are the core five guys and they are pitching really well. Paulino has been hit around, but he has nine strikeouts per nine innings and should be fine going forward.

That's a lot of good news as you would expect for a team that is 12-3. What are the minuses and do they throw any warning flags into this optimistic overview?

The Minuses:

It might be a stretch to call Jason Hammel a minus at this point. He needs to do better at keeping the ball in the yard and he has a 99 ERA+. But is that bad for a fifth starter in this day and age? Hardly. If he can give the Rockies that kind of performance all year, the Rockies might take it happily.

There is no way that Jonathan Herrera won't regress as the season goes along. He was a solid .731 OPS guy in the minors and to expect him to stay over 1.000 in that category is silly. He's had a nice start and has helped the team immensely to get to this point. He could be a solid second baseman all season long, but he's bound to get back to normal as the season goes along. And his early fielding numbers haven't been great either.

Carlos Gonzalez has been pretty quiet. The Fan couldn't quite buy his season last year and the feeling here is that he will play better than he is right now, but he won't likely reach the kind of production we saw last year.

Third base has been a huge problem thus far. Jose Lopez, Ty Wigginton and Ian Stewart aren't getting the job done. Currently, the Rockies have a slash line of .155/.222/.241 from their third basemen. Ian Stewart has gotten off to an abysmal start. With consistent playing time, he should bounce back, but he's never been a great hitter to begin with. Ty Wigginton is a solid back up, but not a full time option and Felipe Lopez simply does not have any patience at the plate to be a factor despite his occasional pop. This position could be a drag to the Rockies all season.

The Rockies have gotten good early production from Todd Helton with his .828 OPS. But his back is acting up again and all of his power is gone. Jason Giambi is nothing but a pinch hitter at this point. So first base remains a position to watch.

Early Conclusions:

It's pretty darn obvious that the Rockies' season will go as far as their starting pitchers can take them. The Giants have a decided edge in their experienced and deep rotation. If Chad Billingsley can pitch like he did the other day, the Dodgers have a solid rotation as well. Tulowitzki's play can elevate this team and he can carry them a long way. He MUST stay healthy though. They have serious concerns at first base and third and some reservations here about second base. Seth Smith is having a solid season at the plate but isn't a great right fielder.

The team currently rates third in the National League in fielding efficiency, so that part of their game is solid. The bullpen has been very good. Huston Street has already appeared in ten of the Rockies' fifteen games so his health will have to be watched.

The final thought here is that the Rockies should be among the candidates for leading the NL West all season long. But it certainly won't be as easy as it has been thus far. They will continue to do well if their rotation holds up and they keep their road splits up all season long. There's no reason they can't win 92 games. But the thought here is that they've outplayed their ability thus far.

Game Picks - Monday: April 18, 2011

Sunday again showed how tough this season is to pick MLB games. While some picks were very good such as the Pirates beating the Reds and the Yankees beating Ogando and the Rangers, others weren't so good. A blown save cost a pick and the game for the Cardinals. The Brewers lost both games of their double-header and not just one. The Mets played a game like it was the 163rd game of the season, using two starters in relief to pick up a win they must have wanted badly. And the Twins finally got a save against the Bay Rays. After two days of .500 results in a row, it seems two picks over .500 will have to do.

There are eleven games scheduled for Monday, which is quite a few for a usual day off. The games include the annual Patriots' Day game in Boston which starts at 11:05 in the morning:

  • The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Interesting game to pick. An impatient offense goes against a pitcher with a lot of walks per game. But the Blue Jays pitch their ace in Romero who should win over Dice-K.
  • The Bay Rays over the White Sox: The White Sox can't seem to get going and now face David Price. He'll beat Jackson.
  • The Brewers over the Phillies: Marcum will have to be good after Sunday's debacle for the Brewers. He'll face Blanton, who is vulnerable.
  • The Orioles over the Twins: Liriano and Tillman have had a tough time getting past the fifth inning. Who knows how to pick this one. The Orioles are due for a win.
  • The Reds over the Pirates: The Reds should get to Correia and Travis Wood comes up big for the Reds against a young line up.
  • The Rangers over the Angels: Big early-season series. C. J. Wilson needs to come up big after a tough series for the Rangers in New York. The Angels counter with Santana.
  • The Cubs over the Padres: Zambrano has been steady. The Padres should pose no problem for him. Stauffer the hard luck loser.
  • The Indians over the Royals: Whoo boy. Carrasco versus Davies. We'll just go by their current ERAs with the Indians winning 9-5. Yeesh.
  • The Giants over the Rockies: This is a big series for the Giants if they don't want the Rockies to run away and hide. Lincecum nees to come up big against Emil Rogers, who is 2-0.
  • The Dodgers over the Braves: The Dodgers play well at home and are coming off a big ninth inning win. The Braves are on the wrong coast. Lilly over Hudson.

And the Game of the Day!

  • The Tigers over the Mariners: The Tigers should get a good outing from Scherzer and Vargas gets no run support.

Yesterday: 9-7
Week: 9-7
Month: 119-104
Season: 119-104
Games of the Day: 8-10

Sunday, April 17, 2011

The Wild Ride of Alfonso Soriano

Has there ever been another player quite like Alfonso Soriano? Despite common derision for his play over the years, Soriano has amassed over 319 homers in his twelve year career and is one of the few guys to hit forty homers and steal forty bases in the same season. He came a homer away from doing so in another season and was a 30/30 guy another three seasons. According to baseball-reference.com, for every 162 games played, Soriano has hit 35 homers and stole 29 bases. He has a lifetime slugging percentage of .509 but an OPS+ of only 113. His contract with the Cubs is considered one of the worst in baseball. This Fan can't think of another player who has had this much good news/bad news attached to his career.

The sides stories over the years have provided much of the fodder for those who are puzzled by Soriano's career. Early in his career, he insisted at playing second base despite never being any good at it. It finally took none other than Frank Robinson to pry him off of that position and put him in the outfield. Then, for years, Soriano insisted on being a lead off batter despite the fact that his power suggested he should bat elsewhere. None other than Lou Piniella had to finally put an end to that. And it wasn't just the power. Soriano has one of the highest free-swinging reputations in baseball and the numbers back it up. And then there was the discrepancy about his age. The Yankees thought they had a much younger player when he first started playing with them. He ended up being two years older than they thought he was. Add all these stories to his obvious power and speed numbers and you get a lot of weird angles on his career.

It seems really hard to peg the kind of player Soriano has been over the years. Baseball-reference.com has a feature where they give each player "comparables" to try to fit a player's stats against others that have played the game. Soriano's two closest "comparables" are Raul Mondesi and Aramis Ramirez. What does that tell you? It tells you just what the point of this piece is all about. A player like Soriano is all about the good news/bad news sides of his play. You need a good scale to be able to balance which side is stronger. This Fan is unsure he is smart enough to make that call.

Let's talk about Soriano's fielding for a moment. By all accounts, he was a terrible second baseman. When he combined with Derek Jeter for the Yankees in his early years, the middle infield for that team was a vast wasteland. Baseball-reference rated him almost 79 runs below average in the nine years he played there. But both B-R and Fangraphs.com give Soriano positive marks in the outfield. No case ever showed how weak these fielding metrics are more than Soriano's positive marks in the outfield up until the 2009 season. Fangraphs does include a "Fans Scouting Report" but it only covers 2009 and 2010, years which his outfield play deteriorated according to the advanced fielding metrics. But the Fans Scouting Report does show what we've all known: Soriano has some of the worst instincts and worst hands for an outfielder we have seen.

But Soriano wasn't given the big money for his glove. It was his bat that teams wanted. And yet despite all those homers and all those doubles and all those stolen bases, there is doubt about Soriano's worth at the plate. His career batting average is .277 but his career on base percentage is only .323. His career walk percentage is only 6 percent. And yet he strikes out a lot--22 percent (and higher the last five years). For his career, he has swung at 35 percent of all pitches out of the strike zone. That's almost Vlad Guerrero-like.  Compare that to Derek Jeter's 20.4 percent or Lance Berkman's 21.4 percent.

Soriano has made his career on hitting the fastball. Since 2002, Soriano (according to Fangraphs) has hit fastballs to the tune of 196.2 runs above average. He is slightly above average since that time against a cutter and a knuckleball. But he is 34.1 below average against a slider and slightly below average against a curve. The question this writer has is why anyone would ever throw Soriano a fastball? And in fact, pitchers have taken notice. In his career, Soriano has only seen about 52.2 percent of fastballs. Most batters see around 60 percent.

Soriano's lack of ability against pitches that bend was well played out in the post season where he has been absolutely futile in posting a .562 OPS in 186 post season plate appearances with a 30.5 percent strikeout rate. Once he got to the post season, those very good pitchers knew what to do and since Soriano never saw a slider breaking away from him he didn't like, he was easy pickings. This single fact alone probably ticketed his exit from the Yankees.

So what do you make of Alfonso Soriano? Good question. This Fan has expended nearly 1000 words and still can't pinpoint an answer. He has started hot in 2011 with five homers in his first fourteen games good for a slugging percentage over .600. But he's also only received only one non-intentional walk and has an OBP of .309 despite a .283 batting average. Out in the field, he's already made two errors but has already thrown out two base runners. Such is the up and down ride that he provides. That old scale shows he's built up 21.8 bWAR or 33 fWAR. Soriano has a 115 wRC+ for his career, making him a solidly above average player. But whether he's earned his salary over the years depends on whose WAR you go by.

There are no solid answers for Alfonso Soriano. And that's what makes him one of the most confusing players of our time.

Game Picks - Sunday: April 17, 2011

Mediocrity reigns supreme here as the picks had there second straight 7-7 day. The weather keeps playing havoc with the early season as the northeast continues a pall of gray and cold. That the 7-7 included picking a Braves sweep of the Mets and a Red Sox win (a rarity so far this season), shows how bad some of the other picks were. Aces Kershaw, Verlander and King Felix all had nothing. Youngsters like Sean O'Sullivan, Casey Coleman and Tyler Chatwood all pitched like aces. What's a picker to do?

Keep picking, that's what. Here are Sunday's games:

  • The Indians over the Orioles: The Orioles have gone as cold as the Indians have been hot. And they can't seem to win in Cleveland. Carmona has been very good of late with nothing to show for it. Time for him to win over Bergesen, who gets the start for the Orioles. Doesn't Sizemore return today?
  • The Pirates over the Reds: Upset time as Karstens beats an inconsistent Volquez. Yeah, probably a crazy pick. But the Fan is "feeling" it.
  • The Phillies over the Marlins: Same scheduled pitchers as the rained out game yesterday: Hamels over Sanchez.
  • The Brewers and Nationals split their double-header: Gallardo beats Marquis the first game and Livan beats Marco Estrada in the second game. Marco Estrada? Whodat?
  • The Braves over the Mets: The Mets are now 4-11 and are currently flatter than the Fan's wife's meatloaf (inside joke). Things get no better today as Gee makes his first start of the year against Hanson. A death watch should be started on Terry Collins.
  • The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Weather permitting we thinks. Pity the poor Blue Jays to be in the wrong place at the wrong time as the Red Sox break out of their funk. Lester over Litsch.
  • The Bay Rays over the Twins: Little hope is seen here for the Twins. Old Gardy sure looks grim in the dugout. Hellickson over Duensing.
  • The Astros over the Padres: The last few days have shown that the Padres will not be anywhere near as good as last year. Brett Myers goes 2-0 as he beats Richard.
  • The Angels over the White Sox: Dan Haran goes for his fourth consecutive win and he's been a beast so far. Sure hate picking against Buehrle though, especially with the White Sox fighting not to get swept.
  • The Mariners over the Royals: Horrible game to pick. Can Pineda keep pitching this well? Can the Mariners muster any hits off of Jeff Francis? Oh gosh.
  • The Cubs over the Rockies: Another tough game to pick. Dempster hasn't been very good thus far, but is too good to be this bad. And the Rockies counter with Alan Johnson making his major league debut. Oy.
  • The Athletics over the Tigers: Have much more faith in Trevor Cahill than in Brad Penny and hence this pick.
  • The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Bumgarner gets off the schnide while the Giants jump on Enright. Enright has lost his last six decisions spanning over to 2010.
  • The Cardinals over the Dodgers: Chris Carpenter needs to bounce back off of an uncharacteristic blowout from his last start. But the Cards' bats are red hot and should continue to pound against Billingsley.

And the Game of the Day!

  • The Yankees over the Rangers: Sabathia wins the game and the Yankees finally change Ogando's earned run average.

Yesterday: 7-7
Last Week: 47-42
Month: 110-97
Season: 110-97
Games of the Day: 7-10

Saturday, April 16, 2011

Digging Into Lance Berkman's Hot Start

It's been since 2008 since Lance Berkman was a force in the National League. Up until 2009, Berkman was one of the premier players in the senior circuit until injuries and age slowed him down for progressively worse 2009 and 2010 campaigns. Then the Cardinals signed him and announced that he would be their starting right fielder and people either gasped or laughed. But now, Berkman is one of the early fascinating stories of 2011 and though thirteen games is way too small a sample size, let's dig a little into his numbers and see if this falls under the fluke category.

A few things jump off Berkman's stat page over at Fangraphs.com for his 2011 start. The first is that Berkman is being much more aggressive in the strike zone. The last two years, it seems Berkman was tentative in that area. In 2009, he swung at 68.1 percent of pitches in the strike zone. The following year, that figure dropped to 66.4 percent. This year, that figure is way up to 79.1 percent which is much more reminiscent of the 74 percent rate he had during his good years. Perhaps this shows a confidence and well-being factor that wasn't there the last couple of years.

The second thing noticed was that his BABIP is sitting at only .278. Since that figure should be around the league average of .299 or .300, Berkman isn't getting lucky on balls in play. Despite the lack of balls falling in for him, Berkman is batting a healthy .327. This seems to indicate a sustainability for his average, if not his current home run rate.

On the negative side, Lance Berkman's line drive percentage is way up at 23.8 percent, much higher than his career norm of 19.7 percent. Berkman has not had that kind of line drive percentage since 2005. Perhaps the swing percentage in the strike zone and his line drive percentage add up to Berkman getting a lot of good pitches to hit early in the season. This might also reflect in his walk percentage, which is way down from his career norms. Berkman's walk percentage has always been consistent, so look for that to improve as the season goes along. Or perhaps, Berkman made a decision to be more aggressive this season and it's paying off. If you account for the extra line drives, Berkman's ground ball and fly ball figures fall in line with his career averages.

The power numbers shouldn't surprise anyone. Berkman now has 333 homers in his career and has hit over 40 homers in a season twice and over 30 three other times. All of Berkman's homers have been hit as a left-handed batter. The switch hitter has been vulnerable from the right side against lefties for quite a while now and he's only had eight at bats in that situation thus far this year with only one hit. Berkman will need to prove he can still be effective when the Cardinals face more lefties in the future. The likelihood of that happening will increase and Berkman has only hit one-sixth of his career homers against left-handed pitching.

Lance Berkman also has a really good situation thus far with how deep the Cardinals' line up has been. Theriot has been getting on base, Colby Rasmus is hitting near .400 and after pitchers get through Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. Berkman has been making pitchers pay for any relief they have been feeling once they get through those two guys.

One last thing on the negative side of his numbers. Berkman is killing fastballs, which he is seeing about sixty percent of the time. But he has negative values against curves and change ups. That isn't the norm for him as he's always had some success against those pitches in the past. But for some reason, he is vulnerable against those this year. But even that negative can be a positive if you figure he will bounce back on those pitches to get back to his career norms.

The bottom line here is that this Fan doesn't think Berkman's early start is a fluke. He's in a good line up and in a good situation. Unlike the last few Houston years, he is playing for a contending team that has more professional players to inspire him. The big thing, of course, will be his health. Every time he trots out to right field, we will be holding our breath that he doesn't hurt himself out there. He needs to have a full and uninterrupted season to continue to be successful. But if he can manage to do that, Berkman is going to have a really nice season.

Oh! And one last thing. According to baseball-reference.com, Berkman is holding his own in right field. Negative numbers, but not a disaster. So far, so good it seems.

Game Picks - Saturday: April 16, 2011

When this picker went to bed last night, the tally stood at 2-7 and things were looking pretty grim. But somehow, the late night magic seemed to be in the air and the day ended up an even 7-7. Granted, that isn't success or anything to hang a hat on. But at least it wasn't the disaster it seemed to be earlier. Those early games though. Ugh. Morton poured salt into the wound. Harrison had the Yankees on the mat. Buchholz had feet made of clay. And there was no way to come to the Brewers defense in the way their game ended with the Nationals.

Saturday is a new day but also the end of the week. The Fan needs a good day here:


  • The Orioles over the Indians: The Orioles end their four game slide behind Guthrie, who has been reborn under Showalter. Tomlin has been good, but the feeling here is that it's a bit of a mirage.
  • The Brewers over the Nationals: The Brewers and Gallardo are too good to lose to the Nationals again. Oh boy, those are dangerous words.
  • The Yankees over the Rangers: Everything points to a Yankee loss in this one. Freddie Garcia makes his first Yankee start. Holland has been good for the Rangers. But blog buddy, Dan McCloskey, said on Twitter that he has a good feeling about this one. If this is wrong, blame Dan. heh.
  • The Reds over the Pirates: James McDonald has an arm. Ee-eye-ee-eye-oh. But with that arm he faces the Reds, ee-eye-ee-eye-oh-no.
  • The Mariners over the Royals: King Felix against Sean O'Sullivan. Kings have tread on Irish heads for a thousand years. All you can do is gnash your teeth.
  • The White Sox over the Angels: Tyler Chatwood is no Jared Weaver and Gavin Floyd was really good last time out.
  • The Bay Rays over the Twins: Two teams going in opposite directions. Niemann is still the Fan's favorite pitcher in Tampa against Home Run Baker, who never seems to get over his homer trend until June.
  • The Braves sweep the Mets: Derek Lowe wins the first game over Carrasco and then the Braves' bullpen bails out Jair Jurrjens making his first start in the second game against a struggling Pelfrey.
  • The Phillies over the Marlins: Can't see Hamels losing to Anibal Sanchez. Really depends on which Sanchez shows up.
  • The Padres over the Astros: Wish this series would end already. How do you pick which anemic offense will score more runs? Going with Latos over Figueroa.
  • The Rockies over the Cubs: Seems to the Fan that the one time last year when Hamels and Hammel pitched on the same day, they both lost. [[[shiver]]]  Oh well, sticking to it with a win over Casey Coleman.
  • The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Crappy match up between Zito and Saunders. Simply closed the eyes and picked this one.
  • The Tigers over the Athletics: Is it this Fan's imagination or do the Tigers play tighter than a drum when Verlander pitches? Probably just imagining things. He beats Dallas Braden.
  • The Dodgers over the Cardinals: Kershaw cools off the hot Cardinal bats. McClellan with the hard luck loss.

And the Game of the Day!

  • The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Several reasons why the Red Sox win. First, Beckett was amazing last time out. Second, Varitek will catch him and not tip pitches like Saltalamacchia does. Third. The Red Sox are better than 2-10.

Yesterday: 7-7
Week: 40-35
Month: 103-90
Season: 103-90

Friday, April 15, 2011

Gnash Your Teeth - A-Rod's Back

Many have chosen to enjoy the fact that Alex Rodriguez seemed to regress over the past few years. That he was no longer among the elite players of the league made people happy. See? The guy can't play without steroids. See? He's getting old. See? How stupid the Yankees are for paying him so much. Unfortunately for these folks, Mr. Alex Rodriguez came into Spring Training in his best shape in years thanks to finally being cleared by doctors to do full flexibility workouts years after his hip surgery. A-Rod ripped the ball all over Florida and in the early going, he's doing it in the games that count too.

If you look over at Fangraphs.com and their leader board, these are the top five right now in baseball. There's Tulowitski--another guy getting healthy now. There is Matt Kemp, who is enjoying life after Larry Bowa. Both are sitting with a 1.3 WAR. Right below them and tied with 1.0 is Joey Votto (whom you would expect), Colby Rasmus (who is having a breakout season) and Alex Rodriguez. And A-Rod leads them all in wOBA and wRC+.

Having watched A-Rod play for a long time, this does not have the feel of an early season fluke (ahem - Miguel Montero). He started like this in 2007 and he never let up. Yeah, he had more early homers in 2007, but he was just as locked in and it carried through the entire season. Watching him this early season, you can just see he knows he's going to hit the ball hard. You can sense that he feels comfortable and focused. No, he's not going to finish with a 1.400 OPS, but there is no doubt that barring injuries, he can climb his way back to his familiar 1.000 and higher.

Consider that a year ago, when everyone could see that he couldn't move vertically, he still hit 30 homers and slugged over .500. Consider that some scouts are saying that he has more freedom in his hip movement than they've ever seen from him...ever. Everyone at Yankee Stadium III knew he was going to get a big hit in the tenth inning against Baltimore yesterday. Watching him, you just knew. He might make an out, but he was going to hit the ball really hard. He did and he didn't make an out.

You may hate him, but he's back and as good as ever. His head and his place with his teammates have never been better. Barring injury, Alex Rodriguez is going to have a monster season. The Fan is greatly sorry if that is disturbing to many of you. But if you can put your prejudices aside for a few moments and watch the guy hit, what Alex Rodriguez is doing now is as pretty as it gets in baseball.

Bonds, Manny and Fallacies

The federal government was able to pin one charge against Barry Bonds and that was obstruction of justice. They were unable to get a jury to convict Bonds of lying to a grand jury. Was that a victory for the feds? Was that a victory for Bonds? The answer is hardly on both counts. Bonds, unless he appeals, is now a convicted felon. The government might decide to retry Bonds on the hung charges. If they do so, it will be a further waste of federal resources. The verdict came down within a week of the news that Manny Ramirez tested positive again and retired rather than take the one hundred day suspension. Since then, dozens of writers have marked their lines in the sand on issues such as the Hall of Fame and these two players' legacy. As someone who has loved the game for almost fifty years, this writer must too draw that line.

The evidence of the use of performance enhancing drugs is overwhelming. For anyone in this day and age to believe otherwise is misguided. Equally misguided is anyone who believes that the players we think we know about were the only ones who used the substances during their careers. If you decide to take the slippery slope of listening to Jose Canseco, usage was rampant and those we think we know about are just the tip of the iceberg of who used during their careers. The safest thing to say is that we'll never really know the full extent of who used and who didn't. Even if someone leaked all the names on that famous list of those who had tested positive in 2003, we still wouldn't know because those were only the ones that got caught by the test.

Another safe statement is that usage was widespread around baseball by both those who hit the baseball and those who pitched. But what we end up here are a handful of scapegoats, who also happened to be among the top performers in the game. These whipping boys for the sins of many cause all the prose that is thrown out over the Internet and in news copy day after day. Count Bonds and Manny Ramirez at the head of the class in this category.

The argument that these guys were "cheaters" is a strong one. No one can deny that those who used PEDs were at the very least, circumventing the rules. That's a nice way of saying they cheated. The argument that there was no testing is a weak one. Yes, it casts the net of blame wider to include owners, the union and the players. But it still doesn't negate the argument of cheating.

But there is another argument that is worth considering. And that is that if more than half of the players were using, how come all of those players didn't shatter home run records or win 300 games or hit 600 homers? For every successful user such as Jason Giambi, there was an unsuccessful one such as Jeremy Giambi. It didn't make everyone great. It may, at most have made the great...well...greater.

Athletes have always done whatever they could to get an edge. Does anyone think that PEDs were the only transgression in the long line of history? If you believe that, then you believe that the White Sox of 1919 were the only ballplayers that ever took money to affect the outcome of a game. Do people really believe those White Sox acted in a vacuum. If you do, then perhaps you should read this interesting article. We'll never know, but a lot of early baseball was probably mishandled with gamblers' money.

But just like in 1921, baseball found itself with a problem and fixed it. Same as today. Other writers have made a case for "greenies" or other medication that helped ballplayers stay "sharp" before the PED era. There is evidence that one of the most famous homers ever hit may have been aided by a team accomplice in centerfield flashing the signs. Gaylord Perry is in the Hall of Fame though he has admitted cheating. Did Joe Neikro learn to scuff baseballs in a vacuum? Was he that much of a genius? How do we know his Hall of Fame brother didn't do the same thing?

Nolan Ryan pitched for a long, long time. And he was effective a long, long time. Do we know he never cheated? Do we know with certainty that all of the recent inductees into the Hall of Fame never cheated? What we have here is a generation of players that got caught.

There are two issues that are the most problematic that Bonds and Manny cause us to focus on. The first is the record book and the second is the Hall of Fame. Both suffer from rose-colored glasses and the fallacy that baseball remains the same over time. Let's take each of these issues separately.

First, the record book. There is no doubt that until this point, the numbers in that record book have been held in awe. And now for the first time, we are faced with a challenge to those hallowed numbers. But even that is not a true statement. At the time Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth's home run record, the talk of an asterisk was very prevalent due to the fact that Roger performed his feat in 162 games instead of Babe's 154.

The Maris-Ruth controversy only shows the lack of honesty there is in comparing play from one era to the next. When Maris played, the league expanded and there were many more pitchers in the game who wouldn't have been with less teams. Ruth played when African Americans were banned from baseball. Performance enhancing drugs are just one factor in the numbers being put up today. There are more teams than ever before providing more mediocre pitching (and hitting if you look at it conversely). Plus, the baseball isn't the same from era to era. Oh, the commissioner might tell you otherwise. But we know it was different prior to 1920. We call that the "Dead Ball" era. How can you have a defined era and say confidently that the ball hasn't changed periodically since?

So the record book that we all cherish and love is a fallacy and always has been. How can Babe Ruth be vaulted higher than Home Run Baker when they didn't play the same game? Sure, the record book does give us some hints on who the best players are over time. But to think that it was ever fool proof is nonsense. Boog Powell just might have been a better player than Jason Giambi. So as much as it pains this writer's sensibilities. it may be a good thing for the record book to become less holy.

The problem with the second issue (the Hall of Fame) is similar to the first. We have that ridiculous clause in the voting rules that talks about the integrity of the game. The clause assumes that none of the Hall of Fame players that played before 1919 ever took a bribe. It assumes that racism is treated differently than other evils. It assumes that players such as Ruth were bastions of goodness. It's all a bunch of hooey. Did Bob Feller report all his income on those barnstorming tours with black teams? We don't know. Is Pete Rose the only player that ever bet on baseball? We don't know. Was Gaylord Perry the only pitcher who doctored the baseball?

The only thing the Hall of Fame should do is include players who were the best players at the time in history for which they played. Period. That means that Pete Rose is in the Hall of Fame and Shoeless Joe, and yes, it means that Manny Ramirez and Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens and Rafael Palmiero and anyone else are Hall of Fame players. Period. And if the present Hall of Fame can't do that, then there should be a movement to create a new institution that does. The alternative is leaving out some of the greatest players of the game and having their places taken with lesser talents. Then you have a meaningless institution.

Contrast baseball's hallowed Hall of Fame with the NFL. O. J. Simpson is in the NFL Hall of Fame. Jim Brown hasn't stayed always on the right side of morality issues. He's in there. Lawrence Taylor is in there. He's a registered sex offender. How many football Hall of Fame players are there that took steroids? It's not about morality. It's about who the best players were in their era.

Does this Fan think that MLB should ban steroids? Well, yes. What about blood replacement methods? Geez, who knows. The game should always strive to create as fair an environment as possible. But all that said, it's never been completely possible and there are too many gray areas to make it black and white. Bonds apparently became envious of lesser talents getting so much media attention. His ego drove him to his supposed choices. Manny Ramirez is a player in a long line of players from the Dominican Republic who took any edge to get out of that poverty situation and were helped in many ways by unscrupulous scouts that made those choices easier. Growing up in that culture leads to way of life and a confusing sense of right and wrong. But Manny Ramirez was one of the best players of his era. End of story. Bonds was the best player of his era. End of story.

Bury the record book as a measure for all time greatness. And bury the silliness of baseball writers deciding the morality lines in America. Those cats are long out of the bag. They may never have been in the bag in the first place.

Game Picks - Friday: April 15, 2011

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Two come-from-behind thrillers saved the day as both the Yankees and Bay Rays found a way to come back from early deficits only to have walk off situations at the end. The Bay Rays, of course, had Johnny Damon hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the tenth to win the game. Also, of course, Sam Fuld singled ahead of Damon to set up the dramatics and personally willed Damon to hit the homer (#legendofSamFuld). Jorge Posada, who hadn't had even a hit in something like 24 at bats, tied the game with a massive homer in the ninth off of the Orioles' closer and then after yet another scoreless outing by the great Mariano Rivera, Teixeira walked to start the bottom of the tenth, A-Rod (who looks like the MVP right now) hit a double and Swisher won the game with a sacrifice fly. Exciting stuff.

But the most wonderful news of the day was the Game of the Day feature finally getting a break thanks to an unbelievable Cliff Lee performance against the helpless Nationals. The correct pick gives that feature a long way to go, but at least the bleeding stopped for a night.

Friday's games features some fun match ups. Let's take a look:

  • The Indians over the Orioles: First, the Orioles had their hearts ripped out by the Yankees. Second, after a late game, they had to travel to Cleveland. Third, Justin Masterson has been brilliant for the Indians thus far. Lastly, Zach Britton has been really, really good thus far, but could hit a bump in the road here.
  • The Phillies over the Marlins: Roy Oswalt should allow fewer runs than Vazquez, who looked a lot like the pitcher who pitched for the Yankees last year.
  • The Yankees over the Rangers: Ivan Nova has never faced the Rangers, so there will be some surprise factor there. Matt Harrison has pitched beautifully for the Rangers but has a real bad history against the Yankees.
  • The Brewers over the Nationals: The Brewers are on a roll. Narveson was great last time out and Gorzelanny not so much. The Nationals are having trouble scoring runs.
  • The Bay Rays over the Twins: Blackburn has been real good so far. Wade Davis has been so-so. But the Twins are scuffling of late, Mauer is out indefinitely and the Bay Rays are coming off a thrilling win.
  • The Reds over the Pirates: The Pirates had a decent start to the season, but are falling fast and look feeble suddenly. Bronson Arroyo has been terrific. Morton has looked good too, but his stats are a bit deceiving.
  • The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Cecil and Buchholz have both struggled, but we have to look at history here. Cecil has a terrible history against the Red Sox and Buchholz has a terrific history against the Blue Jays.
  • The Braves over the Mets: The Mets are as flat as a team can get. Collins is not the right manager. Lowe over Carrasco.
  • The Astros over the Padres: You know neither team can hit when Moseley and Norris put up all those goose eggs yesterday. Harang is 2-0 at home but this is his first road start. Going with Happ who was good last time out.
  • The White Sox over the Angels: Jared Weaver has been amazing thus far. But the White Sox have a potent line up and are the home team. Taking a flier on Humber.
  • The Royals over the Mariners: This Fan still hopes Bedard has a good comeback season. But the Mariners are futile at this point and the Royals are on fire. Hochevar with the win.
  • The Rockies over the Cubs: Garza has had homeritis so far and that's not a good thing against the high-flying Rockies at home. Chacin with the win.
  • The Tigers over the Athletics: McCarthy was terrific his last time out and Porcello has really struggled. But the Fan has to go with the Tigers ability to score over the A's lack therein.
  • The Cardinals over the Dodgers: The Cards are starting to thump the ball and Lohse is having a nice bounce-back season. The Dodgers have Jon Garland making his first start of the year. That won't go well.

And the Game of the Day!

  • The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Matt Cain does what he does and the Giants score enough off Daniel Hudson to win.

Yesterday: 7-4
Week: 33-29
Month: 96-83
Season: 96-83
Games of the Day: 5-10

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Not Walking the Walk

Every season, one of the fun exercises is seeing what player will go the longest without doing something. For example, what player will go the most at bats to start the season without a hit? With the increased value placed on on base percentage, the figure this Fan is following is who will go the longest into the season without a walk. A quick use of the fantastic baseball-reference.com Play Index gives us fourteen players with more than 25 plate appearances thus far without a walk. They are:

  • Adam Lind - 51 plate appearances with nary a walk. He's batting .250 with a .253 OBP.
  • Brent Morel - 43 plate appearances. No walks. He walked four times in 70 PAs last year. He's batting .244 with a .263 OBP. He did get hit by a pitch once.
  • Kevin Kouzmanoff - 44 plate appearances without a walk. No surprise here as he walked only 24 times last year with 586 plate appearances. He's batting .171 with a .182 OBP. He was hit once as well.
  • Vladimir Guerrero - 43 plate appearances. No walks. Vlad will swing at anything. His batting average and on base percentage are dead even at .268.
  • Jason Kubel - 43 plate appearances. No walks. This is a surprise because Kubel has walked 56 times in each of the last two years. But his bat is hot and he probably wants to keep swinging until his hot streak wears off. He's hitting .325 with an OBP of .341. He too has been hit once.
  • Jose Lopez - 35 plate appearances without a walk. No surprise here. Lopez has 3,634 lifetime plate appearances with a 3.7 percent walk rate. Eww. 
  • Yorvit Torrealba - 33 plate appearances. No walks. He is one of two catchers on our list. Catchers don't fool around. His .242 batting average exactly matches his on base percentage.
  • Rajai Davis - 32 plate appearances without a walk. He's our second Blue Jay on the list. Davis is a speed guy who totally refuses to get on base to use it. His BA and OBP match at an abominable .142.
  • Aaron Rowand - 30 plate appearances. Zippo walks. On the one hand, it's really cool to see Rowand hit so effectively early this season. He looks great at the plate with a BA of .367 after not hitting for a couple of years. But to use a pun in that same sentence, He doesn't look great at the plate. No walks.
  • Jeff Baker - 26 plate appearances with no walks. He's in the Rowand category. Big .382 batting average. Same OBP.
  • Jeff Mathis - 27 plate appearances. Nada walks. The catcher finally gives us one of those neat statistical anomalies with a batting average of .192 and an OBP of .186. 
  • Jack Wilson - 28 plate appearances without a walk. And he might just stay that way as it's unclear whether the Mariners will play him again. He is that deep in the doghouse. Matching .231 BA and OBP.
  • Melvin Mora - 27 plate appearances with no walks. Since he's hit into two double-plays and hit two sac flies, his batting average is .280, but his OBP is .259. How cool is that...if you're not a Diamondback fan.
  • Aaron Miles - 26 plate appearances with no walks. The good folks at AaronMilesFastball.com might be pleased to see their boy on the list. 

Who among these players will be the first to take a walk? The drama builds...

Is This Who the Minnesota Twins Are Now?

The Minnesota Twins have only played eleven games. So any early observation has to be taken with some word of caution about sample size. And while other perennial winners like the Red Sox and the Bay Rays have played worse than the Twins, the team from Minnesota currently sits at 4-7 and in last place in their division. Fortunately, it's very early and they aren't that far off the pace from the leaders. That's the good news and bad news in a nutshell. What will follow here is discussion on some observations made long before the season started. This team doesn't seem to fit. The same observations were made in this space about the White Sox last year. And though the White Sox did have a mid-summer run to catch the Twins in the AL Central last year, they again sunk out of the race, thus proving out those observations. So, for the sake of writing its own safety net, let's just call this post one about observations made with reservations.

That was a long-honking opening paragraph, eh? You still here? Whew! Good. Let's explain why the Twins just don't seem to fit this year and why their early results don't seem to be out of place. First, the Twins have  a pitching staff built around contact. As stated here many times before, the Twins hate a pitcher giving up walks as much as most humans hate cockroaches. And with that philosophy, they eschew strikeout pitchers and focus on pitchers that can throw strikes. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates have a lower K/9 rate than the Twins this year. The Twins were fifth from the bottom (out of thirty teams) in that same category last year. They hate walks so much that they once released Craig Breslow, who has become a very successful reliever (don't worry, he'll come around this year) for the Athletics, simply because he didn't throw enough strikes.

When you have a team pitching philosophy of pitching to contact and throwing strikes, you need to be able to handle all those balls put in play. The Twins already had weaknesses at corner defense in the outfield last year with the statuesque Delmon Young in left and Cuddyer/Kubel in right. And in the off season this year, they set about with determination to weaken their infield defense up the middle.

J. J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson drove Ron Gardenhire crazy last year. Both have already moved a lot in their careers. Hardy can't seem to stay healthy (he's on the DL with a strained oblique right now) and Hudson is famous for playing to his own rhythm and giving you a healthy dose of base running blunders along the way. But darn it, both guys could sure play some defense. Both have rated highly in their careers for their glove work and range. The same could be said about Nick Punto--one of the favorite punching bags of this site--who played short before Hardy. Punto couldn't hit, but he was a fine fielder by most metrics for most of his time in Minnesota.

Since the Twins knew they were going to let Hudson walk, one of the team's biggest acquisitions in the off season was signing second baseman, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, from Japan. From everything we heard, Nishioka was sort of the Ichiro-lite who would get his bat on the ball and give you an exciting brand of slap and run offense. The one difference from Ichiro is that Ichiro was also known for his defense. None of the pre-season pundits were unanimous on Nishioka's ability to translate his infield defense in the majors. And certainly, the Japanese player struggled early on for the Twins on defense. But then he broke his leg in the Swisher take out slide and the point has become moot for at least two to three months. By all appearances, Luke Hughes, Nishioka's replacement can hold his own with the glove.

Meanwhile, over at shortstop, the Twins dispatched Hardy to the Orioles for a minor league player and Jim Hoey, which rhymes with hooey. They didn't get a major league tested shortstop to replace him. Instead, they handed the spot to former utility player, Alexi Casilla. Casilla, in six years in the majors, has only played 50 total games at shortstop. It's probably his best position, but despite the small sample size, hasn't really shined (shone?) defensively at the position. He's adequate, the numbers show. But his defense hasn't show the ability to save runs on defense. Add to that fact that Casilla has a 72 lifetime OPS+ and you get a weaker shortstop position than you had last year. The unfortunate fact is that barring trades, the Twins have no Plan B at short to turn to.

Let's now turn our attention over to third base. Danny Valencia took the position over by storm last season. He did so well offensively that it overlooked that he did pretty well defensively as well. But again, we are talking about sample size and in the minors, Valencia wasn't thought of as a great defensive third baseman and we are starting to see that this year.

So if the Fan were to wrap this all up in a bow, the Twins pitch to contact and need its fielders to make that contact pay off in outs. To be fair, Delmon Young's defensive metrics this year look much better, so we'll leave that one alone. Span is very good in center, but no matter who the Twins put out in right will hurt them. The infield is suspect at third and short. Now that Hughes is at second, he should be pretty sold there. Morneau was very good at first but he missed a lot of time and it will take a few more weeks for his glove to catch up with his much better head. To say it more succinctly, the Twins' defense doesn't match its pitching aspirations.

And could that defense account for the surprising number of walks the pitching has given up this year? That may be a stretch, but they are currently 11th out of 14 American League teams in walks allowed after two years in a row where they led the league in that category by a long margin. Liriano has walked nine all by himself. And let's talk about Liriano for a second while we're here. Has any team had less respect for a pitching talent than the Twins have had for Liriano?

Francisco Liriano was in the top five of all AL pitchers last season. He was dominant and he was effective. What was the first story we heard this spring? That he was being shopped around. His pitching coach has gone on record that Liriano's strikeouts weren't viewed with favor because he could be more effective pitching to contact. Last year, Liriano struck out 9.4 batters per nine innings while only walking 2.7. But that's not good enough? Just like his season in 2006 wasn't good enough. Has any dominant pitcher ever received so little praise from his own organization? His early struggles this season only exacerbate his situation. He needs to get out of there. He really does.

The Twins will hit better than they are now. Mauer hasn't gotten going yet. Morneau is just now starting to hit the ball hard. Valencia has started slowly. But there are holes in this line up. On any given day that Mauer doesn't play, the Twins have one of the weakest players at back up catcher in baseball. Casilla has never proven he can hit. Kubel and Cuddyer get more offensive respect than the numbers indicate. And there has yet to be an indication that Jim Thome has anything left in his tank. Hughes has been solid in the minors but how will he do over two or three months in the majors? That's anyone's guess.

So, yes, friends, the Twins are in trouble. It is very, very early. But this Fan is not impressed with the construction of this team. And don't call the Fan a hater. The resurgence of the Twins in the Minnesota marketplace has been one of the shining stories of baseball in the last decade. They have done a fabulous job of building up their fan base. And that's great for baseball. But the bottom line here is that the Twins do not seem to be a favorite to maintain their longstanding hold to the top spot in the division...at least this year.

Game Picks - Thursday: April 14, 2011

Yesterday wasn't that bad a day for picking games. Eight correct. Six incorrect. The results were certainly better than Tuesday. It is wished that in a toss-up game like the Braves/Marlins, that this picker had believed more in Josh Johnson. Picking against the Cardinals was a pretty dumb move. But overall, one can't be too unhappy with the overall results. But one fact continues to gall. That darn Game of the Day feature has to be dragged out and shot. The Fan simply cannot buy success for that feature. Remember that the Game of the Day is usually a pick that the Fan feels more strongly about than any other game. In other words, if the Fan was a betting man, this would be the game the Fan would put his money on. Let's just say it's a good thing the Fan isn't a betting man.

The Red Sox and Bay Rays were rained out. That may have been the most merciful of anything that happened yesterday. The game will be made up at a later date since the Rays have to play Minnesota today.

We've been fortunate so far in that no day has not been without a pretty good selection of games. We haven't had a Monday or a Thursday where nearly everyone was off. Today (Thursday) is no exception with eleven games on the schedule including a make up double-header by the Rockies and Mets. Here's the picks:

  • The Rockies and Mets split their double-header: The Mets will win the first game with Dickey pitching. Greg Reynolds counters and was decent against Pittsburgh. The Mets should be more of a challenge though. The Fan like De La Rosa in the second game over Capuano.
  • The Bay Rays over the Twins: Carl Pavano looks pretty hittable to this point and so, for a fact, does Shields. But the Rays are over their little offensive coma and should score enough to win at home.
  • The Yankees over the Orioles: This game will go one of two ways. Either Hughes will stink again and get lit up and it will be a slugfest, or Hughes will figure some things out and pitch a good game. In either case, the Yankees win.
  • The Brewers over the Pirates: This game features little hope for pitching as Wolf faces off against Maholm. So, in a game of batting practice, the Brewers are always going to look better than the Pirates.
  • The Braves over the Marlins: The Fan should leave off the Marlins in this daily feature because you never know what team you will get from day to day. Nolasco could be good. Or he could be terrible. They could hit. Or they can't. Ah well, let's pick Beachy and the Braves in this one and hope for the best.
  • The Padres over the Astros: Dustin Moseley versus Bud Norris. Now there's a match up for the ages, eh? Neither has won a game yet. One of them has to. But will either pitcher make it to the sixth inning to qualify? Moseley has more of a chance to do that than Norris, who is 1-4 with a stratospheric ERA against the NL West.
  • The Royals over the Mariners: Bruce Chen has made a believer out of this Fan. He's not a great pitcher, but he's made a career out of beating weaker teams. The Mariners qualify. Poor Doug Fister. He might qualify for this year's Blyleven award.
  • The Athletics over the Tigers: Phil Coke will give the lefty-leaning A's trouble, but Gio Gonzalez is one of the best and will give up nothing.
  • The Cardinals over the Dodgers: Great pitching match up here that could go either way. It's Kuroda versus Jaime Garcia, who has been brilliant. Kuroda has also been brilliant. Somebody has to win. Going with the Cardinals who now have Albert Pujols hitting again and Berkman is making a genius out of this humble writer.

And the Game of the Day (pleading for this to be right):

  • The Phillies over the Nationals: Poor Jordan Zimmermann is not going to get any benefit from his better pitching this year. Not when his buddy over at third with one less "N" in his last name is on the DL and he is facing Cliff Lee.

Yesterday: 8-6
Week: 26-25
Month: 89-79
Season: 89-79
Games of the Day: 4-10 oh hush.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Look Who's Leading the League in Walk Percentage!

After spending a morning perusing the batting leaders over at Fangraphs.com, one stat jumped up and grabbed some attention. If you look at the leader board and click on the walk percentage stat, you'll see it. The top ten in that category includes some of the usual suspects. Kevin Youkilis is up there. He is after all the guy Billy Beane called the human walk machine. Jose Bautista is up there proving that last year wasn't a fluke. Of course Jason Heyward is up there. Bobby Abreu is not a surprise being up there, nor is Troy Tulowitzki. But the leader? You'll never guess it. The leader so far (in admittedly early results) in walk percentage is Jonny Gomes. Jonny Gomes!?

It's astounding, but there it is. Jonny Gomes leads the league in walks received with thirteen. And no, none of the walks are intentional. This is stunning. Why? Well, history is why. Last year, Gomes walked only 39 times in 571 plate appearances. Last year's walk percentage for Gomes was 6.8 percent. So far this year, his walk percentage is 29.5 percent. Somehow, Gomes has made leaps and bounds in pitch recognition? His strikeout percentage is down as well from last year's 24.1 percent to this years 23.3 percent. Was there ever any hint that Gomes could do this? Frankly, no.

Gomes was better in Triple A with his walk percentage than he has been in the majors. His last three gigs in Triple A were 19.6 percent (only 53 plate appearances), 9.8 percent and 8.9 percent. Those are better than his lifetime major league 9.5 percentage. But it's safe to say that nobody saw this coming. Projections for Gomes ranged from 8.8 percent to 10.7 percent.

If we look at last year, could we have predicted this? Again, no. his walk percentage was slightly higher in the second half over the first, but not by much. Did his Spring Training results predict this? Not at all. His walk percentage in Spring Training this year was 9.1 percent. So this has to be a fluke, right? Perhaps he has just had a run of games against wild pitchers. Let's look at his games:

  1. Faced Gallardo who had decent control and only walked three. Gomes was one of them.
  2. Faced Shaun Marcum, who walked five that game. But three of them were Gomes.
  3. Faced Wolf and a bunch of Brewers relievers. They walked four in nine innings. One was Gomes.
  4. Faced Happ who did have control issues. Happ walked five, but two of them were Gomes.
  5. Brett Myers and three relievers walked four. Gomes was one of them.
  6. Ian Kennedy and Aaron Heilman only walked two in nine innings. Both were Gomes.
  7. Daniel Hudson and two relievers walked five. Gomes was one of them.
  8. Joe Saunders walked five in his poor outing. Gomes was one of them.
  9. Matt Latos and three relievers walked three batters. No walks for Gomes.
  10. Clayton Richard and four relievers walked four and Gomes was one of them.

This early run of ten games doesn't show any real cases of wildness except for perhaps Saunders and maybe Hudson. So, something weird is going on here. The Play Index over at baseball-reference.com also shows that Gomes went 114 games of his 148 games played last year without a walk. So far this year, he's walked in nine out of ten games.

The last time there was this kind of dramatic walk percentage increase this writer can remember isn't really remembered that well because the numbers don't back it up. Chone Figgins went from 62 walks in 2008 to 101 in 2009. But that was only an increase in walk percentage from 17.7 percent to 18.9 percent. In other words, Figgins was pretty good at taking a walk before that. Robinson Cano's walk percentage jumped last year, but many of those walks were intentional.

We'll have to keep watching this because it almost seems unprecedented. But that being said, it seems impossible for Gomes to maintain due to his history and that fact that most players don't go from impatient to patient in the course of one season. Whatever is going on here, this Fan finds it darn fascinating.

Game Picks - Wednesday: April 13, 2011

This picking gig has turned into a roller-coaster. Good day. Bad day. Good day. Bad day. Yesterday was a bad day. Perhaps the three rained out games didn't help. But that doesn't hide the fact that Mr. Pineda was terrific against the Blue Jays, Chris Carpenter had nothing for the Cardinals, the Royals' bullpen couldn't win the game nor could the Athletics bullpen. Ah well. Such is life.

None of the three rained out games will be replayed today. The Mets will play a double-header on Thursday. The Yankees/Orioles and Brewers/Pirates have decided to reschedule their make up games later on in the season. That leaves us the standard fifteen games to mull through. Here goes:

  • The Tigers over the Rangers: Losing Josh Hamilton was huge (and yes, he should have kept his mouth shut) and the Rangers are forced to start Dave Bush today. Ugh. Give the Tigers and Scherzer the win.
  • The Twins over the Royals: Liriano should get back on his game against the Royals and the Twins should torch Kyle Davies.
  • The White Sox over the Athletics: This picker has already flip-flopped twice on this game. Anderson has been very good but can't buy a team run. Danks hasn't been that good but is lefty and neutralizes some of the A's putrid offense. That fact finally won out.
  • The Blue Jays over the Mariners: Love this kid, Kyle Drabek. Remember his father too. Drabek out pitches Vargas for the win.
  • The Yankees over the Orioles: Same match ups as yesterday moved up to today. Burnett should win over a five-inning Tillman.
  • The Angels over the Indians: Just can't pick the Indians when Carrasco starts. Going with Santana and the Angels, who at least should get a decent pitching performance.
  • The Brewers over the Pirates: Yesterday's match up is still today's match up. Marcum still beats Correia.
  • The Phillies over the Nationals: Livan got the Fan yesterday. Again. But Lannan won't be able to match zeros with Halladay.
  • The Reds over the Padres: Wood should out pitch Stauffer and the Reds' offense is simply too much for the Padres to overcome.
  • The Rockies over the Mets: The same thoughts on the pitching match up as yesterday. Emil Rogers is on a mission and is pitching for his sick dad. Niese is nice, but not nice enough today. This Fan still thinks the Mets hired the wrong manager.
  • The Braves over the Marlins: The marquee match up of the day with Josh Johnson versus Tim Hudson. Both pitchers have been excellent so far. But the Braves are at home and the Marlins' defense has been far too leaky.
  • The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: This will be an offensive game with Lackey versus Shields. And the Red Sox have more offense.
  • The Cubs over the Astros: Zambrano should be able to dominate the Astros' offense and though the Fan loves Wandy Rodriguez, the Cubs have a lot of righty bats to score against him.
  • The Diamondbacks over the Cardinals: Westbrook has been a stream out of control so far. He has a 9.90 ERA. Kennedy is a good starter for the D-backs. Berkman is hitting well though.

And the Game of the Day:

  • The Dodgers over the Giants: Switching strategies for this feature today. The clearcut winner thing isn't working, so we'll go with an underdog. Ted Lilly pitches a heck of a game and Sanchez again doesn't survive the sixth inning.

Yesterday: 5-7
Week: 18-19
Month: 81-73
Season: 81-73
Games of the Day: 4-8