Tripping Over the Transactions - 3

It's that time again folks when we take an irreverant look at the transaction wire for the week. This was a bad week for many as final cuts are taking place. The Fan apologizes for their plight and for taking this light-hearted look at their outcomes.

• Gil's shoulder is still a Meche, so he went on the disabled list.
• Coco Crisp's body went snap, crackle, pop again and he's on the disabled list.
• Sure as the dust that floats high and true, when movin’ through Kazmir who went on the disabled list. That was for you Zep'lin fans
• The Angels were all excited that they got this great pitcher. But he wasn't who they thought he was and they send Zach Kroenke down to the minors.
• In other Angel news, Zavada's chances of making the team were made of Clay and they crumbled.
• In Braves' news, Joe was Thursten for a roster spot but didn't get it. Jordan is gimpy and Schafer is the one gear to have when you're using more than one and went on the disabled list. You have to be old to remember those commercials. A long time relief pitcher took his roster cut up the butt like a Procterologist.
• The Orioles' manager was walking around looking for his pitcher. He yelled out, "Koji, are Uehara?" The coach told him he was at the doctor's getting examined again and he went on the disabled list.
• In other Orioles news, the only way that pitcher, Mickolio, is going to see the Camden Yards clubhouse is via Web Kam as he was optioned out.
• For the Rockies, Huston will be in Street clothes to start the season as he went on the disabled list.
• In Florida, it seems rather unkind on Easter weekend for a Chisthian to get demoted. At least he'll have his Jai alli along with him as Miller was demoted too. Thought that happened last week?
• The Royals had a bloody day as Bruce took it on the Chen and was sent to the minors. But he was hardly alone as Edwin Ballorin danced on his toes to the minors too. Irving Falu out the door in anguish when he got the bad news.
• The Angels nipped Ryan's hopes in the Budde as he was sent down. They also told Peter Bourjos-no. The Fan thinks that's french.
• In Los Angeles, the equipment guy was relieved when Mientkiewicz got released. "Whew!" he said. And unfortunately, a catcher is no Closser to making the bigs this year than last. The Dodgers apparently think Xavier needs more schooling, so they sent Paul down. In a serious side note, they broke camp by signing both Ramon Ortiz and Garret Anderson to their 25 man roster. Geez, Louise. That's bad.
• Clay's injury put the Twins in a Condrey when they had to put him on the disabled list.
• In a sleeper of a deal, the Yankees received catcher/outfielder Robbie Hammock in a trade.
• The Reds' Wells will Kip town as he was released.
• Adam Lind must have been Bewitched to sign a deal for that amount of money. What a bargain for the Blue Jays.
• It wasn't an epic trade, but the Pirates traded Virgil Vasquez to the Bay Rays.
• The Giants' GM is a Posey because he sent Buster down. Oops. Need to wash the mouth out with soap after that one. In other news from the Giants, their catcher, Steve, proved that you can always go Holm again as he returned to the minors.
• Man, the Fan thought that they got rid of Bradley to provide a better atmosphere, but they still have Greifenkamp because they signed Jon to be their vice president.
• The Cardinals traded Julio Lugo to the Orioles. The Orioles expectorant Lugo to arrive any day now.
• When pitcher Bonser hits the wall and goes on the disabled list, he makes his own sound effects. To put seasoned salt on Boston's wound, they put Lowrie on the disabled list too.
• The Royals must have sent Kila back to the minors despite crushing the ball all spring because Trey Hillman kept saying, "Ka'aiwho?" instead of Ka'aihue.
• Seattle fans said, "Well I Bedard" when Eric went on the disabled list yet again.
• And finally, the Fan is angry that the Cubs just won't take Sam into the Fuld and demoted the poor guy again.

Have a great opening week of baseball, Everyone!

Game Picks - Sunday: April 4, 2010

It's time to unleash the beast as the Fan rekindles (did you just think of Amazon?) the dusty forecaster for the new season. For those new to this space, the Fan will pick the games every day of the season (as long as the Internet is working). Take it for what it's worth:

The First game of the season!

The Red Sox over the Yankees: Sabathia is always a slow starter and the Yankees always seem to start slowly against the Red Sox.

This week: 0-0 Man! .500 already!?

AL East - The Best Division for Second Base Men

The American League East is already considered to have three of the best teams in baseball with the Yankees, the Red Sox and the Bay Rays. And each team has talent all over the field. Each team has at least one or two advantages at a position over the other. But one position seems to be a draw: Second base. In fact, the AL East probably has the best division in baseball for guys who play second: Cano, Pedroia, Hill, Zobrist, Roberts. Wow. That's a lot of talent this side of Chase Utley. Let's take a look at each of them.

Robinson Cano:
Age - 28
Lifetime Batting Average - .306
Lifetime OPS+ - 113
RF/9 - 5.04
Lifetime Fielding Perc. - .982
2009 RTOT - 9.5
2009 OPS+ - 129

Comments: Cano really improved last year in his concentration and fielding. He's quick on the double play and he hasn't yet put it all together at the plate. He hit .322 last year and many feel he should win a batting title. This could be the year. He needs to walk more. But won't.

Dustin Pedroia:
Age - 27
Lifetime Batting Average - .307
Lifetime OPS+ - 111
RF/9 - 4.73
Lifetime Fielding Perc. - .990
2009 RTOT - 9.8
2009 OPS+ - 111

Comments: Plays all out all the time. Hardly ever makes an error. One of the hardest swingers per pound in the game.

Aaron Hill:
Age - 28
Lifetime Batting Average - .285
Lifetime OPS+ - 102
RF/9 - 5.09
Lifetime Fielding Perc. - .988
2009 RTOT - 9.6
2009 OPS+ - 117

Comments: A bit of a late bloomer, but boy did he bloom. With 72 extra base hits, Hill came out of nowhere to ring up 36 homers. And the way he is hitting this spring, it wasn't a fluke.

Brian Roberts:
Age - 33
Lifetime Batting Average - .284
Lifetime OPS+ - 105
RF/9 - 4.77
Lifetime Fielding Perc. - .987
2009 RTOT - -14.2
2009 OPS+ - 111

Comments: On the downward slope of his career, or at least he should be. Lifetime OPS+ suffers in comparison due to late blooming. But he has averaged an OPS+ of 115 over the last five years. Range has dwindled. Good fielding percentage but rated far behind the others in the fielding category.

Ben Zobrist:
Age - 28
Lifetime Batting Average - .260
Lifetime OPS - 109
RF/9 - 4.64 (at second) He's played a lot of positions.
Lifetime Fielding Perc. - .990
2009 RTOT - 5.8
2009 OPS+ - 146

Comments: Easily had the best year at the plate of the group. Was in the top ten in OPS/SLG/OBP. More versatile than the others in that he can play other positions but second seems to be where he fields the best. The Fan was surprised at his age. He will be 29 in May.

Here are their projected WARP (wins over replacement player) for 2010 according to PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus:

Cano - 4.8
Pedroia - 5.9
Hill - 4.0
Roberts - 3.3
Zobrist - 4.0

So, according to Baseball Prospectus, the value goes by rank: Pedroia, Cano, Hill/Zobrist, Roberts. Sounds about right. Though Hill and Zobrist certainly can finish higher than their projections.

Roberts has had a great five year run and has been a perennial All Star. Due to his fielding, he might be a tad overrated. But he's a solid player and if he is the poorest of the AL East at his position, that's a pretty strong division. Zobrist faded a bit in the second half last year but he had never played in so many games. But it's hard to argue with his final results. Pedroia was the AL MVP and followed it up with a good season. He will be good for quite some time yet. Cano is getting better and better and we haven't seen the best of him. And Aaron Hill has become the star of his team and is no slouch compared to the other four.

The AL East has a lot of riches in talent, but no more so than at second base.

Tribute to Mrs. Fan

If there were ever two peas in a pod, it's in the Fan's house. And today, the Fan wants to take a moment and celebrate Mrs. Fan who celebrates the 51st anniversary of her birth. Two more months from now a new celebration will begin as it will mark the 10th year of an extraordinary marriage.

Mrs. Fan never cared for baseball until that marriage. Now she roots for the Fan's favorite team just as gustily. Her favorite is the catcher. She just likes him a lot. She really likes the shortstop and the closer too.

Mrs. Fan has really proved the "for better or for worse" thing. There have been incredible highs and lately, incredible lows. But it's all good because as long as both are faced together with one resolve and one heart, there will be proof of the Fan's favorite bible verse: "And it came to pass..." This too shall pass. And there will be better days.

Mrs. Fan just seems to get it when it comes to caring for others. She just knows how to make someone else the center of the universe which is all a person can ask for. She has her quirks. She can't hear in one ear, so that takes a bit of planning in seating arrangements. She has a bad wheel as a knee replacement didn't work out very well. And that combined with her penchant for losing her balance momentarily (no doubt due to the ear thing) earns her the pet name of, "Weeble." But those quirks are endearing, which is the true test of this marriage after all.

Mrs. Fan encourages the Fan to play golf on a nice day (how many wives do that!?). She is always pleased when the Fan buys a rare article of new clothing. She likes the Fan's cooking a lot, but doesn't like the puns. Oh well, nothing is perfect. She also defends the dog when the Fan is less than pleased with it. Well, somebody has to look out for the little guy.

Mrs. Fan has two degrees, one in nursing, which she did for over two dozen years and one in teaching. She could make a lot more money nursing, but her knee is a problem. But she loves teaching. She has taught art at the middle school for six years. The kids adore her. Everywhere she goes, they come running with big expectant smiles to see her. But art is always a luxury for a government and when they can't afford it anymore, it's always the first thing to get cut. Heaven forbid that they cut down on the sports expenses. So her job was eliminated in recent budget cuts. Hopefully, she'll catch on as a teacher in another subject. The principal thinks it's a good possibility. But she really enjoys art and it's a real shame.

So anyway, today is her birthday and that makes it a very special day. Because the Fan is sure blessed that she was born today all those years ago. Happy Birthday, Baby.

You Know It's Almost Baseball Season When...

...Yahoo starts including the MLB link on their home page. Sweet.

The Excitement is Building...

Can you feel it? Can you see it coming? Baseball fans are expectant parents waiting for the baby to arrive. And it's almost time for the new season to be born. It will be a season like others, but it will be totally different. Each team will still play 162 games. The American League will still have the DH. Bobby Cox is still down there in Atlanta. The Cubs are still hoping for the drought to be over. The bases are still formed in that perfect diamond. The familiar will take its place along side the new and ridiculous. Ozzie will still say some off the wall things. But his team is totally different than past teams. LaRussa will still be in St. Louis along with Duncan performing his yearly miracles. Pujols will hit. But we'll still see something we've never seen before and some player or team will surprise us. Scandals will occur. Hotdogs will be over-priced. The regular season is almost upon us. Hallelujah!

One of the best things about being a Fan is making a mental list of hopes for the new season. Each April brings a pie in the sky feeling and euphoria of possibility. Only a few of those wishes will become reality. Some crushing disappointments will occur. But like a typical Sunday on a golf course, the shanks are usually forgotten after the miracles. For each wince at the disabled list, there will be a mental high five to someone having a career year. Some young guy will become the new megastar. Some old guy will finally break down. And despite some of the finest minds in the world predicting the outcomes, nobody knows what is going to happen.

And those mental wish lists? Those things that would happen in a perfect world? How about Jeter getting 200 more hits? How about Hamilton, Vlad, Cruz and Feldman bringing a division title to Texas? How about Jason Heyward finishing with a .950 OPS? How about that switch-pitcher for the Yankees getting a September call? How about one of the Pirates, Nationals, Reds, Orioles, Padres or (God help them) the Royals breaking years of struggle to shine in the sun? How about Braun and Fielder hitting 100 homers between them? How about Strasburg and Chapman finishing their mandatory time in the minors to come up blazing zeroes? How about the Bay Rays topping two million in attendance? How about the Marlins winning the wildcard? How about Tim Hudson being this year's Chris Carpenter? How about Buster Posey getting a shot to hit every day?

Wouldn't it be great if a pitcher threw a perfect game on opening day? Wouldn't it be great if Mike Sweeney had a great year in Seattle? Wouldn't it be great to see another great throw from Ichiro to throw out a runner at third? Admit it. Wouldn't it be fun for someone other than the Cardinals to win the NL Central? Wouldn't it be great if Haeger really got a shot in Los Angeles once they get tired of Padilla? Wouldn't it be fun to watch Phil Hughes live up to his potential? Wouldn't it be great if Miami discovered the Marlins? Wouldn't it be great for fans to have a new stadium in Minnesota? Wouldn't it be a relief to hear good news about the Athletics' future? Wouldn't you be glad if Jose Reyes and David Wright had great years?

There is so much to root for. There are so many wonderful reasons to check out the box scores. It will be a treat to read all the Fan's favorite writers. It will be fun to root for all the JMLs that Josh Borenstein has written about every day? Wouldn't you secretly love to see Manny Ramirez have a big year? Sure you would. Wishing and hoping is what this is all about. Waiting to discover how much of it goes beyond our wildest expectations is worth all winter of missing the daily grind of the season.

Through it all, the Fan will be pumping it out. Because this is what the Fan lives for...well, one of the things anyway. Can you feel it? Are you excited? Yeah! The Fan hears you and smiles in similitude.

Tigers Take Huge Risk

The Tigers were sort of in a no win situation. Three of their candidates for the starting rotation came in to camp as big question marks. Dontrelle Willis and his problems have been well documented. But the Tigers are on the hook with him for a huge paycheck this year regardless of what he does. Nate Robertson was once a great prospect who in the past showed signs of brilliance. But then his WHIP started expanding quicker than a former Cheers actress and last year missed most of the season. Jeremy Bonderman also had a bright future before struggling with performance and ultimately with injury. The Tigers were in hopes that one or two of those guys would make the rotation. The feeling here is because of his cost, Willis was given every opportunity to make it. Now the Tigers have traded away Robertson to the Marlins in basically a cash dump and that makes the Tigers vulnerable.

While any regular reader of this site knows the Fan's longing for Willis to succeed, it is with some fear that he has actually made the team and the rotation. His last two spring starts started to show the wildness that has plagued him the last couple of years. He walked three in four innings just yesterday. So good spring regardless, the last two starts haven't been moving in the right direction.

Robertson, on the other hand, was having a very good and consistent spring and it looked that he was poised to overcome and pitch effectively in the major leagues again. Jim Leyland was quoted as saying that the move frees up some of the logjam in the rotation. But is it ever a bad thing to have too many starting pitchers? The Red Sox don't think so and stockpile them like end-of-the-world survivalists. The Red Sox are pretty smart people.

Jeremy Bonderman was once a stud with a big arm and a high strikeout rate. Think of Verlander without the success. But despite all that, he's only had one year in his career where he had an ERA+ over 100. So even if he IS healthy this year, what will he be able to achieve? He's still only 28 years old and it's possible for him to still succeed, but it seems like a long shot.

In fact, the entire result of the spring competition seems like a long shot. Will Dontrelle Willis be effective? As much as the Fan hopes it so, it seems unlikely. Will Bonderman be effective? Even before his injury, that seemed to be the never ending question. Trading away Robertson makes the Tigers way too vulnerable and they have taken a huge risk. In fact, don't call it a risk, call it one of the biggest gambles in recent memory.

Defending White Sox Disrespect?

Blog buddy, Josh Borenstein, usually feels much the same about all things baseball as this writer. But Josh took great exception to the piece featured here for disrespecting the White Sox pitching staff and team. While Josh is super high on the Fan's respect list, we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. Let's put some numbers behind the rationale.

According to PECOTA projections, the starting rotation of the White Sox is projected to have the highest value over replacement players (VORP) in the division. They project out to a VORP of 128.6 compared to 100.9 for the Twins and 114.9 for the Tigers. But while the Fan believes some of the White Sox pitchers are rated too highly (more on that later), some of the projections for the Tigers and Twins seem way too low. Kevin Slowey has been terrific this spring and the Fan believes he will come in higher than projection. Rick Porcello was rated very low (5) and he should come in much higher than that. If those two projections alone account for some closure between the numbers, consider the Twins' projected batting order (even with Nick Punto at third!) projects to 209.4 VORP compared to the White Sox' projection of 125.2.

The Fan also believes the White Sox projections are too high. Let's go through each member of the starting rotation:

Mark Buehrle: Despite his no hitter, Buehrle gives up a lot of hits. He's led the league in that category three of the last five years. Plus, his strikeout to walk ratio has dipped for two straight years. Add to that his BABIP which was .283 last year compare to his career number of .291 and Buehrle (which is darn hard to type by the way) should finish with an ERA over 4.00 and a record around .500.

John Danks: Danks regressed a bit last year compared to the year before. His ERA went up as did his walks per nine innings. His homers per nine innings doubled too. You can count on him to strike out seven guys per nine as he has been there consistently, but it's hard to predict his success in not walking people because his last three years show high/low/high. His BABIP was also low last year at .269 compared to his career mark of .291. All that being said, Danks will finish with an ERA of 4 or higher and he will be a .500 pitcher unless he brings his walks down dramatically.

Gavin Floyd: Floyd had a great season in 2008, his first year as a featured starting pitcher. But he fell to a .500 record last year with an ERA of 4.06. It's hard to figure though because his strikeouts per nine and his strikeout to walk ratio numbers were the best of his career. His WHIP and homers per nine were also the best of his career. So one would have to assume that Floyd was very unlucky last year (though his BABIP was dead on for his career average). All that being said, Floyd should fare close to his projections.

Freddie Garcia: Garcia has been a serviceable pitcher for most of his career. He's a veteran and he knows what he is doing. But he's also 35 and has missed major portions of the last three years. He is a gigantic "IF" in this Fan's book. At least he can't be any worse than Contreras...

Jake Peavy: Peavy is a stud, or at least he's been one. And that's the concern. Will he hold up? Was his brilliant 3-0 look-see last year an indicator of things to come or was that a function of hitters not being familiar with him? Time will tell. But Peavy has been a great pitcher and could be again. The Fan will go this far to meet Josh in the middle: If Peavy is Peavy and puts up prime Padres-like numbers, then the White Sox edge out the pitching staffs in the rest of the division. But they still won't hit enough to win the division.

Hey, at least the Fan came halfway, right?

Some Teams Will Surprise Us

Spring Training is a lousy indicator of who is going to do well in the regular season and who is going to fare poorly. There are just too many variables to consider. First, you could have an average to poor pitcher facing a line up of youngsters and fringe players trying to obtain a job. A good result is fairly meaningless there. The Yankees, for example, have rarely had a game this spring where their regulars all played. The Tigers on the other hand, play their regulars often. Then throw in split squad games and what, if anything, does that tell you? But despite all of that, there are small indications that a team will be better than thought or worse than expected. Let's look at a few of those here.

On the plus side:

Cleveland Indians - The Indians have rarely lost a game this spring and for all the reasons stated above, you have to look at that with a skeptical eye. But there are a lot of positive things going on for the Indians. The biggest of those positives has been the pitching of Francisco Carmona. A few years ago, this guy won 19 games and then lost it. He couldn't throw strikes, and when he was forced to, he got cuffed around. While it's a small sample size, Carmona has been outstanding and has only walked two batters all spring. That's a very good thing for the Indians. He is joined in the rotation by Jake Westbrook, who missed most of the last two seasons to injury. He's throwing well this spring and was a very solid starter before he got hurt. Masterson and Carrasco have great arms and if they can put it together, can be very effective for the Indians, Masterson especially. Talbot will get his starts and has had a good spring too. The Indians have to find a way not to start Sowers. The guy is just not effective.

The Indians could also have a formidable line up too, especially if Hafner is back and can come close to his past glory. But even if he can't, a healthy Grady Sizemore, the ever improving Choo, Peralta and Asdrubal Cabrera and a couple of guys who could have career years and this team can be quite dangerous. The Fan has a gut feeling that the Indians will be in the fight for the AL Central.

Tampa Bay Rays - Well, this may not be a surprise as everyone knows the Rays have talent. But looking at the spring statistics (yeah, yeah, the Fan knows), the Rays are in the middle of the pack in offensive and pitching stats and have still won at a .700 clip. These guys are scary good.

San Diego Padres - The Padres will have more offense than last year. Adrian Gonzalez also has Venable and now Kyle Blanks joining him in a lineup with possibilities. Tony Gwynn Jr. might finally break out to a good major league hitter and Ley Brothers, Hundley and Headley seem poised to become productive every day hitters. But it isn't the batting that is exciting about the Padres, it's their pitching. Yeah, they have Garland, who is a gritty and determined pitcher of mixed results, but at least he is a known quantity. But Correia has only walked one batter all spring, LeBlanc might just outshine Peavy for a long time and Latos, a golden arm, is their fifth starter. That's pretty exciting stuff. Here is a bold prediction. The Padres will not end up in last place and might just be in the hunt this year.

On the down side...

Chicago White Sox - The White Sox have molded a new kind of offense for Ozzie Guillen and it just doesn't seem to be working. They are faster than before but seem vulnerable to power arms. A lot will depend on guys like Rios and Teahan, guys who were basically given up on by their former teams. Juan Pierre leading off doesn't scare anyone. And just what do guys like Andruw Jones, Paul Konerko and A. J. Pierzynski have left in the tank? Beckham and Quentin are rising stars, but the rest of the offense just doesn't scare the Fan. And their pitching? Peavy and Buehrle will be okay, but Danks, Floyd and Freddie Garcia are a frightening collection of the rest of the rotation. The Fan just doesn't see the White Sox contending and they will finish behind both the Twins and the Tigers.

The California Angels - Forget that the Angels lost Figgins and Vlad and replaced them with lesser beings. The Angels real problem is their pitching. Jared Weaver just isn't an ace and he is the opening day starter. Ervin Santana can't stay healthy, Saunders is always a train wreck waiting to happen, Pineiro might be decent and then who? This just might be their weakest starting rotation in a decade and this will be the year the Angels fall off the tracks.

Tripping Through the Transactions - 2

This is the time of year that gets really tough for major league hopefuls as the nail biting has long begun on who will head north with their teams and who will be left behind. There were some surprises. But you weren't expecting a serious look at the week's transactions were you? Oops if you were because here at the FanDome, we trip on the transactions in our own unique way. Here we go.

• Andres Blanco didn't wine when the Cubs traded him to Texas.
• Heard someone Seay that Detroit's pitcher, Bobby, was headed to the disabled list. Zach Minor's injury was major enough to put him on the disabled list too. The Fan thinks that MLB needs to make a rule where all Zacks and Zachs agree to spell their name the same.
• Meanwhile, over at Minnesota's camp, Mike is headed to the minors like a Maroth to a flame. Also, the Twins don't seem invested in Dennis Lehmann and they sent him down. Ben Revere will also be riding to a different destination.
• At the Athletics' complex, Michael seems to be Taylor-made but is driving to a lower level of play. Last year it appeared that pitcher Vin's career path was straight as a Mazzaro, but his quiver is empty and he's headed to the minors.
• Cardinals' pitcher, Adam, will have to make his Ottovino-mobile trip to Memphis. Wow, that was bad, no?
• Derek Holland tried like heck to have his tulips remain shut when he was told he was being demoted. Craig Gentry was also sent down. Shouldn't someone with his last name be playing for the Royals?
• As written about here, Duente Heath would have used a sheath, but since he was going to pay for that usage, he is suspended.
• In Baltimore, one family's Stockstill is rising as David and John were given directorships.
• Also in Orioles' news, infielder Hughes thought it was sillier than a nursery Rhyne that he was being sent down after his hard work. The Orioles also laid the groundwork for Florimon and finally for the Orioles, Sarfate it is for me to say, but Dennis never had a shot to make the team.
• Meanwhile, the Red Sox spit out one LOOGY out as Shouse is outta the house, but they swallowed another one as Scott Schoeneweis was signed to replace him.
• The Cubs were busy. Pitcher John wasn't Gaubs full of good feelings when he learned his fate. As for Chirinos, Robinson grew so frustrated when he didn't make the team. Pitcher Bobby just can't get the Scales tipped in his favor when it comes to his major league career. Darwin Barney lost the survival of the fittest when he was sent down. And finally, the Cubs said Ariv-Adduci to Jim.
• At the Marlins' camp, Andrew Miller's hopes were sawed off when he had to go to the minors.
• In the Astros' complex, Oswaldo was assassinated via demotion, Navarro to return. And Wesley spoke to God because he didn't think it was Wright that he had to go to the minors.
• The Red Sox paid cash to the Giants to get a present for their Frandsen.
• Jon Jay will fly to Memphis.
• The Brewers didn't want to put their pitcher at Riske, so David is on the disabled list.
• The Yankees of New York naturally have that accent. That said, they took Chad out of their Gaudin and put him the compost pile.
• Seattle's Mike will take a magic Carp-et ride to the minors.
• Pitcher, Ron, Mahay pitch for the Twins or he Mahay not as he signed a minor league contract.
• The market for Hernan was Inbarren as he cleared waivers.
• Edwar, what is he good for? Absolutely something as the Rangers got Petit in a trade for Ramirez.
• The White Sox were busy. Jordan said, Danks a lot, when he was sent down. Brent didn't like the Morel of his story when he heard the same news. Oh, and Ryan Braun was sent down...WHAT!? Oh wait, it's a different one.

There were more, but the Fan senses you aren't having pun anymore, so we'll wrap it up here. Have a good week!

Odd Sports Day With the Law

To show how much we are screwed up in this country, Gilbert Arenas was wrist slapped with 30 days in a halfway house for brandishing several guns in an altercation with a teammate (no less) and some poor kid was sent home by the Braves because he got caught in a sting trying to hire a hooker.

Duente Heath was the Braves prospect and granted, he wasn't a highly regarded prospect, but still. This is just a dumb kid who wanted a little action and was willing to pay for it. Color this Fan jaundiced, but we are talking about the world's oldest profession. And the only reason it's still illegal is that people are offended by the notion plus, the nations' law enforcement communities like the income these busts bring in the door. At most, this should have been a counseling session with the kid saying not to be so stupid and get caught.

We are so mixed up on which issue is more dangerous. We have bloody stuff on NCIS and all the CSIs and Bones and all those other television shows and nobody complains. Yet, if a show gets a little out of hand sexually, the networks can be fined hundreds of thousands of dollars. How did we get so confused on priorities? Well, the Fan knows, but we don't have time for the entire Puritan, gun rights, wild west education series.

All the Fan is sure of is that Arenas deserved jail time and this Braves' prospect deserved the wrist slap. Here's a new/old idea. Let's stop wasting our valuable law enforcement energy on a "crime" that is older than time and tax the crap out of it. Want to pay for health care? Tax the hookers and the pimps. But for gosh sakes, if a guy who has it all doesn't have enough of a sanity base to wander around with an arsenal of guns that could have killed somebody, then lock the guy up and show that this is truly a crime that we cannot safely tolerate.

This country is stupid some times.

How is This Different Than HGH?

The advance in sports medicine churns so rapidly that it seems impossible to determine any kind of moral compass. HGH is bad. At least that's what they tell us. Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and others have been in some sort of trouble or other because of HGH. Now we hear that there is a new test that can detect HGH. This became a major story and many wondered if MLB would try to get the union to allow baseball to use the test on players.

Many, like this Fan, have wondered what the heck HGH was. Well, here is one internet definition so who knows how accurate it is. Apparently the web site sells the stuff?

What is HGH (Human Growth Hormone)?By definitions: A peptide hormone seecreted by the anterior pituitary gland in the brain. HGH enhances tissue growth by stimulating protein formation. A recombinant (genetically engineered) HGH, called Serostim, has been approved by FDA as a treatment for AIDS wasting syndrome.

HGH is Human Growth Hormone, a natural hormone produced in the pituitary gland of the brain. HGH is considered "the key" hormone because it controls so many functions. It's responsible for youth, vitality, energy and all of the health benefits we associate with youth. Dr. Daniel Rudman's study in the New England Journal Of Medicine demonstrated the remarkable ability to reverse the effects of aging upon the human body with the employment of HGH - Human Growth Hormone! Due in part to his efforts, Dr. Rudmans's study saw the effects of HGH upon overweight men between the ages of 61 and 80 years of age.

Okay, that sounds like a natural kind of derivitive or it can be synthetically made. Now compare that with a recent article about how they are treating Cliff Lee of the Mariners:

The Mariners are treating Lee with platelet-rich plasma injection therapy. The first session came last week. In the relatively new procedure, a tube of a patient's blood is taken and put in a centrifuge and spun, producing concentrated platelets. Those contain growth factors that accelerate tissue repair and regeneration. The platelets are then injected into the injury site. The treatment gained notice in 2008 after Pittsburgh Steelers receiver Hines Ward used it on his sprained right knee to help him play in the Steelers' Super Bowl win over Arizona. Pitcher Takashi Saito avoided surgery on a partially torn ligament in his throwing elbow by using platelet-rich plasma injection therapy during the 2008 season. He was able to come back in time to pitch late in the Los Angeles Dodgers' playoff race.

Is the Fan wrong to think Lee's procedures are remarkably similar to HGH? Isn't the problem that most people have with HGH is that it gives users an unfair and unnatural method of getting well? Isn't what Lee is getting the same thing? Isn't it the same thing that this doctor in Canada did for A-Rod and Jose Reyes and others? But the Canadian doctor is in trouble for transporting HGH over the line. Makes no sense.

It seems funny that big time writers haven't picked up on this paradox. If HGH is bad, then this platelet spinny thingy is bad. Or conversely, if this platelet spinniy thingy is okay, then HGH must be okay.

The only truth the Fan knows is that this is just a start of what medicine is going to do in the next 20 years or so. And that truth means that there will be a whole spectrum of methods that MLB is going to have to sift through to determine where they fly on the good and evil scale. Since it seems they can't even figure that out now, then good luck to players, teams and trainers.

Carlos Pena - Continued Force for Rays?

By most standards of today's new statistics, Carlos Pena had a productive and valuable year last year. He had an OPS+ of 130 and hit 39 homers and drove in 100. PECOTA projects him this year to have a line of: .252/.366/.532. If he does that and hits the 35 homers PECOTA projects, then he will be a valuable player again. But those projections look a bit hopeful to this writer.

For one thing, Pena batted .227 in 2009 after batting .247 the year before. His batting average has dropped nearly 60 points since his big year in 2007. His OBP has dropped two years in a row too and he finished out at .356 last year. After batting .247 and .227 in the last two years, is it realistic to think he's going to hit .252 this year? If Spring Training is any indication (and it usually isn't), he won't hit .252. He's been awful this spring with a batting average below .100. He is a year older at 32 and it just doesn't appear as if he will get better as PECOTA predicts.

There are a couple of factors that could alter that feeling. First, Pena is in the last year of his contract and will have even more motivation to produce. At 32, Pena will want to score one more good deal before all is said and done. The problem for him will be that most teams are set for first basemen/DH types. He might be a good fit for the Dodgers who have Loney at first and he is not that productive. Seattle is another possibility. It will be super unlikely if the Rays sign him to continue his career there...not at over $10 million a year.

The other positive on his side is that his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was pretty low for the year (.250) last year and really low in the second half (.221). Plus, his power has been consistent no matter how many base hits he has. Nearly half of his paltry 107 hits last year were for extra bases. So there is every reason to believe his power numbers will continue. Plus, Pena walks a lot. He walked 87 times last year. But then again, that number dipped for the second year in a row too.

According to most fielding stats the Fan looked at, Pena isn't that impressive in the field. His RTOT are in the minus numbers and PECOTA has him a a negative 1. That isn't terrible, but it isn't great either. The Fan watched a number of Rays' games last year and Pena seemed pretty nimble and effective over there, but the numbers don't back up the observation.

The Fan's gut says that Pena will drop off some more this coming year. Meanwhile, Zobrist is the next great player in the league and can play anywhere and this kid, Sean Rodriguez, has been outstanding at second base for the Rays all spring. It seems the best scenario for the Rays would be to play Pena against right-handers and when a lefty starts for the other team, put Zobrist at first and Rodriguez (who bats right-handed) at second. Those latter two could take over after the trade deadline if the Rays can find a suitor for Pena to get a little value out of him before free agency.

Pat Burrell looks done too with a terrible spring. The Rays should cut their losses and release him.

Jimmy Rollins - Overrated?

There is a real nice analysis of the year Jimmy Rollins had last year on Crashburn Alley by Bill Baer. The Fan is a real Fan of Mr. Baer but it seems here that the astute composer of baseball prose has fallen into the allure of a player that seems to have been over-hyped for years. Jimmy Rollins is a player of value and little can detract from the results the Phillies have enjoyed in recent years with Rollins ensconced as its shortstop. But Rollins has a knack due to his speed, his gaudy triples numbers, etc., to garner more respect than he probably deserves.

The purpose of Mr. Baer's post was to expose that Rollins wasn't as bad last year as his numbers indicated. Those numbers were abysmal. With a final line of .250/.296/.423 good for an 86 OPS+, those numbers are cringe-worthy. The final analysis comes down to Rollins having a hard luck year with BABIP or batting average for balls in play. Sure, that's a valid point. But if you assume that Rollins should have had a BABIP of his career average of .293, and then subtracting out his IFFB rate (infield fly ball) which increased dramatically, you can assign him 20 more hits for 2009.

Even if you give Rollins 20 more hits, that would bring his line up to .280/.324/.447. Sure, Mr. Baer proved his point that Rollins was better, but he still wasn't good enough to lead off for the Phillies. Even with better luck, a .324 OBP doesn't get the job done for a lead off batter.

Jimmy Rollins has a career line of .274/.329/.439. He's never had a higher OBP for a season than .344. Luis Castillo, forever in the doghouse with writers and New York fans, has a career line of .292/.369/.354. Rollins has more pop, but who would you rather have leading off? And yet Rollins seems to be high on everyone's list as a great player. For those of you who would argue that his fielding gives him great value, the Fan wouldn't disagree...up until last year. For the first time in his career, Rollins had a negative UZR in 2009.

Want another example? Juan Pierre is ridiculed as a player that teams always seem to overpay for. He is a favorite ping pong ball for writers to bat around. While this Fan is no fan of Juan Pierre, the guy has a career line of: .301/.348/.372. Again, Rollins has much more pop, but which one gets on base more?

Rollins seems to get a pass on all of this. He is the face of his franchise. He made bold predictions which came true for the Phillies in their remarkable run. But Rollins' contribution has been overrated in this Fan's eyes and it doesn't seem like most major analysts view him with passivity. Rollins would be an eighth person in a batting order on most teams, certainly on American League teams. Or he should be. According to his numbers, not just last year, but for his career, Rollins is more of a drag to the line up as a lead off batter than he is an aid.

Enough With the Joba - Hughes Thing

Who is going to the the Yankees' fifth starter? Will it be Joba Chamberlain who was groomed for the position last year with the famous "Joba Rules?" Or will it be Phil Hughes, the once top prospect who was so effective last year as Rivera's setup man? To be fair to the process, we can't forget Serge Mitre, who has looked good this spring with 14 strikeouts and only three walks in fourteen innings of work. To round out the competition, thrown in also Chad Gaudin, who has seemingly blown his chances with a miserable spring and Alfredo Aceves, who doesn't possess the arms of Joba and Hughes, but seems to just have a knack for knowing what to do.

Aceves got wrecked his last outing and seems more valuable as a versatile guy who can fill any role in the bullpen as his 10-1 Draconian record last year seemed to indicate. Gaudin can look good at times (as he did in a fill-in role last year after the Yankees took him off of the Padres' hands). But in the end, for his career, Gaudin doesn't strike out enough batters and walks far too many over the long haul. A guy like that will kill you in the end.

So that leaves us with Chamberlain, Hughes and Mitre. Mitre's spring numbers are alluring. They are much more alluring than the two young guys. But they are deceiving when looking back over his career. He has never come close to 9 strikeouts per nine innings in his career, why would it suddenly happen in the spring? Well, it would happen because a lot of non-major league hitters participate in spring games while regulars do whatever it is they do in the spring.

Which opens a whole other subject that probably shouldn't be broached to muddy this post, but looking at the Yankees' spring numbers, their big four starters have had remarkably little work logged in spring games. Is that normal? Don't know. But the Fan notices in other box scores that starters are starting to log in four and five inning stints around baseball. Hope the Yankees know what they are doing.

Anyway, to get back to the topic on hand, this writer would have to dismiss Mitre. The spring numbers look like a fluke compared to his career numbers and his starts last year were just flat out scary bad to even consider. That brings us back to Chamberlain and Hughes.

Both have been quoted quite a bit over the spring about the competition. Chamberlain usually says something like, "I'll do whatever they ask me to do. I just want to help the team." Hughes on the other hand says things like: "I'll be real disappointed if I don't get the fifth starter job." Which would you rather trust the spot to then?

The Fan watched a lot of Yankee games last year on MLB.TV. Joba just isn't the same pitcher when he starts. He looks tentative. He looks like he is just trying to survive. He seems to have less control and certainly, his MPH goes down. It's like he is trying to keep it under wraps more so that he'll have more at the end. The trouble is, Joba without the big heater is hittable and he's not around at the end. Plus, he is remarkable at how fast he piles up the pitch count.

But put Joba in a one inning position, and he seems to come out smoking, both in stuff and in demeanor. There isn't any tentativeness and he has more of a "let it fly" attitude. Maybe the guy just doesn't have the head for starting. Maybe he's much more comfortable in a one inning situation.

In fairness, the same could be said for Hughes. He looked a lot better last year as a reliever than he ever did as a starter. But if you throw out his disastrous 2008 season when he and Ian Kennedy (who may become the best starter of all) were forced into the breach and fell flat due to injuries and whatever, and Hughes has performed better as a starter in his career than Joba Chamberlain. His homers per nine are better, his WHIP is better.

While fully understanding that this is hardly scientific, the Fan just believes Phil Hughes has a better makeup as a starter than Joba Chamberlain and should get a full season to see what he can do. But whichever gets the nod, one thing is certain: Both pitchers need to approach their starts with efficiency in mind. Throw more strikes, less pitches and forget nibbling around. They need to somehow figure out how to be as aggressive as starters as they are as relievers.

But the scary bottom line is that neither may ever be effective as starters. If they Yankees can be a .500 team out of whoever starts the majority of it's fifth starts, they will be fortunate.

Mauer Signing Great For Baseball

The Minnesota Twins have signed Joe Mauer to an eight year extension worth big bucks meaning Mr. Mauer will be a rich man for a long time. The Twins' fans get to keep their home town guy and the face of the franchise. All of this is great for baseball as it wasn't long ago that the Twins were speculated about concerning contraction. The signing should also stifle a little bit of the talks about the inequality in the majors for at least a little while.

Of course, the Twins are taking a huge gamble signing a catcher for that long a period of time. The contract will take Mauer into his late thirties and that's a huge risk. It also means that for a significant amount of time, the Twins will have a large portion of their budget tied up in one guy.

But for now, the signing is wonderful news for people in Minnesota and for those that like to see franchise players continue playing for their original franchise.

Tripping Through The Transactions

Today we ressurect a long-time tradition here in the FanDome. Every spring begats an irreverant trip through the week's transaction wire. Warning, that means puns galore. If you're not a Fan of puns, you may want to look away quickly. For everyone else, here we go:

• The Cubs dictated that Castro will be Starlin in the minor leagues instead of the majors. Whoo boy, two puns in one sentence. Off to a fast start!
• It is Embreeonic and far too soon for Boston fans to think LOOGY Alan will be much help this year.
• The Indians told Hodges to go Wes young man and they sent him to the minors.
• The Fogg cleared for the Mets' brass that Josh wasn't going to help them this year and they released the pitcher.
• Holy Toledo! The Tigers sent Alfredo Figaro Figaro Figaro to that city's minor league team. The same team also gave pitcher Cody a Satterwhite wash on a sad Satterday for that young man.
• The Nationals were busy. They decided on Storen pitcher Drew in the minors for the time being. They also decided that Chico wasn't the man and Matt was sent down. And of course, we all know by now that they made a burgermeister out of Stephen Strasburg when he was sent to Harrisburg.
• The Cubs decided that pitcher Thomas wasn't a Diamond in the rough and sent him down.
• The Indians knew Mills wasn't their Beau no matter how much he batted...his eyelashes.
• The Marlins had a busy Friday. They decided there wasn't enough oil in Taylor Tankersley so they sent him back to port and they told him to bring his Cousins with him--Scott that is. They also decided that Vinnie, a catcher, will have to Rottino the minors. In the most suprising move, considering it's south Florida, Jai "Alai" Miller didn't make the big club. And finally, they also felt that Danny Richar didn't have the "D" it takes to be their infielder.
• The Brewers had a cut day of biblical proportions as a Cain, a Salome and a Zachariah all got sent down. And Loe and behold, Kameron was sent down too. Perhaps the oddest part of the day was when their manager called young pitcher, Estrada, into his office, he said, "Marco," and the pitcher answered, "Polo," and the manager then said, "Nashville."
• Meanwhile, at the Yankees' camp, Romulo was remiss when he didn't make the big club. And in a real switch of protocol, Ryan Pope kissed Joe Girardi's ring before he was sent down.
• At the Pirates' complex, the team sent outfielder, Jonathan, down so he could play Van Every day. And Tyler Yates wasn't in the mood for poetry when he got sent down.
• Down at the Texas camp, Justin was Smoak-ing that he didn't make the team.
• On Thursday, there was a Reynolds wrap as the Diamondbacks locked up Mark for three years.
• That same day, the Reds told infielder, Alonso, that he will have to go play off Yonder. To his credit, pitcher, Bill, wasn't a jackass and didn't Bray when he was sent down.
• The Tigers gave Galarraga the Armondo hammer. The same day, the Tigers decided that Jay wouldn't Shorz up their bullpen.
• At the Texas camp, Justin Souza marched to Midland and that minor league affiliate.
• The Nationals sent a Rule 5 pick back to Toronto when they felt that Zech taste just like Zinicola, c-o-l-a cola.
• Tough day on Thursday in the White Sox camp as there were no ifs, ands or Botts for Jason as he was released. And Viciedo was Dayan to make the team, but he didn't.
• For the Astros, Fernando wasn't that Abad, but he got sent down anyway.
• The Rangers are hurting for a catcher but decided that candidate Emerson was a Frostad flake.
• And finally, last but not least, Pirates pitching prospect, Jeff Sues, will be a cat in a different hat after he was sent to the minors.

Have a great week everybody.

Two Weeks Away From Opening Day

When there isn't any reality to the games being played in Spring Training, the normal things to do is to pour over the box scores anyway to see who might break out or who might be the next big thing. The other thing to do is to watch the transaction line to see what phenom is going to get a chance and which won't and perhaps which veteran is going to make one last cut or which is going to go on the scrap heap. Yesterday wasn't much different. Here are some observations:

• Aceves probably hurt any chance he had to become the fifth starter for the Yankees yesterday with a poor performance.
• The Padres played two games with split squads and won them both. In 18 innings of work, their pitchers only gave up two runs. Latos and LeBlanc were particularly impressive. The Padres could be surprising as some of the players they got in the Peavy deal look good.
• The Royals played two games with split squads and scored zero runs on 15 hits. It's going to be a long year for Royal fans again.
• Ben Sheets had a good outing for Oakland, which after a brutal spring has to give the team hope.
• Already wrote about the transaction wire yesterday, so will not write further on that frustrating subject.
• The Angels finally scored some runs yesterday but still lost 11-10. And those runs were scored by very few of their regular players.
• Todd Wellemeyer, given up on by the Cardinals is having a great spring for the Giants. If he can keep that up and give them a good year behind Cain and Lincecum, the Giants could have a better year than expected.
• Cervelli, the Yankees backup catcher, has had a great spring and is going to be a major upgrade over Molina. Dare the Fan say that he likes Cervelli back there more than Posada?
• The Fan keeps seeing this "C. Curtis" in the Yankees lineup in left field and can't help thinking about Chad Curtis. Remember him?
• Tim Wakefield just keeps rolling along and threw five scoreless innings yesterday. He's got to make the rotation for the Red Sox...at least as long as his aged back holds up.
• Liriano looks great for the Twins and his three scoreless innings should end all closer talks about the guy. He could be the Twins' best starter this year, why put him at closer?
• Hafner is mashing the ball for the Indians. Could he be back?
• Spence is having a great spring for the Astros. Their problem though is that only he and Lee can hit on that team.
• Vernon Wells seems poised to have a comeback year. He's having a very good spring. And Aaron Hill is still hitting homers which may prove that last year wasn't a fluke.
• Phenoms Austin Jackson and Jason Heyward were hitless yesterday. Uh oh.
• Ike Hill should be the Mets' starting first baseman when the season starts, not Murphy.

Sucks to be a Fan

In a perfect world, teams in Major League Baseball would put the best players on the field. But we all know that doesn't happen. Many roster moves, trades and even playing time are based on money and not what's best for the fans or for the product on the field. Heck, we all know that's the reality. There is even a baseball blog called, "It's About the Money, Stupid." The web site's sole reason for existence is to look at baseball stories and filter them correctly around dollars and cents. They do a great job too. They have yet to comment on fans losing some of the best young prospects to the minors for the sake of the almighty dollar.

Yeah, the Fan is whining. And it certainly isn't the first time. The Fan had the same whine about Matt Wieters last year at this time. But you know what? The Fan wishes just one time that a team's general manager would come right out and tell the truth instead of giving us the same old line about how they don't want to rush the talent. That is such a load of horse poo. Mr. Rizzo, the new GM of the Nationals ran out the same lines we heard last year from Baltimore as to why Stephen Strasburg is going to start in AA. Except, this time, Rizzo was more creative than his peers.

His official reason is that Strasburg has to learn how to slow down his delivery when men are on base. Strasburg tends to runs things in the stretch and he loses a couple of MPH on his fastball. There are two reasons why such a reason is stupid. First, Strasburg only allowed nine base runners in 12 innings pitched this spring. Seems to this observer to that having such a problem is a minor triviality when people aren't getting on base in the first place. It's sort of like talking about BABIP after a perfect game. The second reason it's stupid is that he can work on that just as easily on the big club as he can with the AA team. Right?

Let's talk about economics for a minute. Please understand up front that this subject isn't high on the list of talents the Fan possesses. But Strasburg is already signed for $15 million. Saving him for a year from arbitration and free agency saves you about $15 million. But according to the last estimates, a win these days for any team is worth about $1.2 million. So say sending Strasburg to the minors for six starts to save on arbitration could cost the team as much as $3.6 million if Strasburg won only half his starts. It's unlikely they will win more than one of those six games with his replacement. Now add in the 20,000 extra tickets he might sell for each start. Everybody wants to see this kid. Say half of those starts are at home, that's 60,000 extra seats for an average take of around a million dollars. Ratings would be higher during their telecasts with increased revenue for ads. So, while they will still end up ahead by sending the kid down, it's not as much as you would think.

The Pirates are doing the same thing with Pedro Alvarez. He was sent down on Friday. He hit well this spring, just like last spring and just like last year in the minors. His defense is a bit ragged, but what more is he going to learn in the minors? This is simply a financial deal and again, it deprives the fans of seeing who they really want to see.

It's not like these guys are 18 years old and you are in danger of putting them in a David Clyde type of situation. They are 21, 22 years old and played college ball. Strasburg has showed us that he is already the best pitcher the Nationals have. Alvarez is already one of the Pirates' better players. Next it will be Aroldis Chapman and Jason Heywood. You'll see. It's all about the dollars. And because it always comes down to that fact, it will always suck to be a Fan.

It's Crystal Ball Time

It's that time of year again. The Ides of March has gone by and April's opening day soon approaches. That means it is time to dust off the crystal ball and see what the coming year will bring. Gazing into the beautiful swirling colors, a number of images appear and here is what they are showing:

• Chapman and Strasburg will win at least ten games apiece. But Jason Heyword will win Rookie of the Year.
• Robinson Cano wins the AL batting title.
• Cliff Lee wins ten games or less and finishes with a 4.00 ERA or higher.
• Blyleven and Roberto Alomar will be the only two voted into the Hall of Fame. Bagwell will just miss in his first year.
• There will be at least one more bombshell in the revelations concerning PEDs. This one will shock few but will provoke at least one more negative column from Buster Olney and Jeff Passan.
• Joe Posnanski will write 810,000 words during the regular season. At least 80,000 of those will be directed toward the Royals.
• The Braves will go to the World Series and Bobby Cox will get the sendoff he deserves.
• Roy Halladay will post an ERA in the National League around 2.20
• Ichiro Suzuki will get 200 hits. Well duh.
• The Rangers will get off to a slow start and Ron Washington will be fired.
• The National League East will finish: Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, Mets.
• The National Leage Central will finish: Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, Astros.
• The National League West will finish: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Padres
• The American League East will finish: Red Sox, Yankees, Bay Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays.
• The American League Central will finish: Tigers, Twins, Indians, White Sox, Royals
• The American League West will finish: Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Oakland.
• Evan Longoria will win the AL MVP.
• Justin Upton will win the NL MVP.
• Roy Halladay easily wins the NL Cy Young.
• Josh Beckett wins the AL Cy Young.
• Albert Pujols will finish .320/.430/.600 as usual.
• Mike Sweeney will get 100 more at bats in Seattle than Griffey.
• A blockbuster trade will send Joe Mauer to the Red Sox for Clay Buckholz, Daniel Bard and Victor Martinez.
• Carl Pavano will somehow win twelve games.
• Carl Crawford will be traded by the trading deadline.
• Dontrelle Willis will win eight games.
• Conner Jackson and Austin Jackson will both have great years. Austin Jackson wins Rookie of the Year.
• Russell Branyon will hit at least one homer for his new team continuing his amazing career Odyssey.
• Jim Thome will hit ten homers and then be released.
• Pat Burrell will be released.
• Randy Winn will be released.
• The Yankees will continue to have A. J. Burnett pitch to a catcher other than Posada.
• No pitcher will win 20 games and no hitter will hit 50 homers.
• Prince Fielder will finish higher in OPS+ than Ryan Howard.
• Ryan Braun will have a higher OPS+ than either of those two.
• Bounce back years will include Brad Penny, Jake Peavy, B. J. Upton and Tim Hudson.
• The Mets will fire their manager and then their GM by year's end.
• Lou Piniella will be fired.
• Buster Posey will have a fine year and come in fourth for Rookie of the Year.
• Adrian Gonzalez will be traded to the Chicago White Sox.
• The Padres will activate Jerry Hairston Senior for a game to play with his sons.
• Roger Clemens will make a plea deal for his perjury charge.
• The Braves will have a special day to honor Bobby Cox. Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Justice are all on hand and in uniform.
• The Twins new ball park will be freezing in April.
• The Nationals will be significantly better this year than last year as will the Pirates.
• Halladay will not face Holliday on a holiday.
• Jayson Stark will get his own program on ESPN2 called Stark Reality.
• Ian Kinsler will again make it to the 30/30 club and again, nobody will notice.
• After a prolonged slump, Boston's batting coach will finally convince Kevin Youkilis that his batting stance is ridiculous.
• The Royals will finish dead last in OBP and Slugging Percentage just ahead of the Oakland A's in both categories.
• And last but not least, the Fan will finally make it to Rob Neyer's Friday Filberts or Wednesday Wangdoodles this year.

Guess It Needs A Comment

The news about Ron Washington wasn't a welcome one. And it wasn't really a story that the Fan wanted to feature here in the FanDome. But, the revelation is an important one and as such deserves at least a mention. The timing sort of stinks because the Rangers seem to be in a position to finally dethrone the Angels in the AL West, and certainly, somebody has to do that, just for the sake of difference.

As Jeff Passan over at Yahoo Sports stated, the Rangers really had no choice here but to give Ron Washington another chance after he told them about what happened. Passan correctly correlates that if the team has given Josh Hamilton a second chance after that bar incident last year, then they have to do the same with Washington. But there are a couple of issues here that are a bit disturbing.

First, Washington has admitted his wrongdoing AND the MLB testers have a positive test. Wouldn't those two things combined put Washington afoul of the law since cocaine is illegal? Couldn't the local police view this as corroborating evidence and arrest the manager? And if so, and if (it's a long shot) the police did act on such information, what would the Rangers do then? Hamilton's adventure was in a bar and drinking and giving body shots to young women is not illegal.

Secondly, Hamilton is a player, not a boss. As someone who has been in the position as the boss, there is a higher standard there. As a boss, one of my workers would get a second chance for an OUI conviction, but the boss wouldn't, because a boss is supposed to hold a higher standard of behavior. Ron Washington is the manager, or the boss of a bunch of young men. As such, his standard is higher than Hamilton's. So really, you can't compare the two.

All of that said, everyone...everyone deserves a second chance after making a mistake. But the thing that sticks in the Fan's craw is this: Why would a middle aged man suddenly try cocaine just once? The Fan is middle aged and wouldn't even know where to find such stuff. Perhaps it was simply available at a party or something. The circumstances of the usage would be important to the Fan as an employer. Was the usage at home or at a party? If at home, that seems a bit more implausible that this was a one time thing.

Necessarily, due to Washington's privacy, the Rangers won't reveal those kinds of details and they shouldn't. But those details would mean a lot of different things to an employer. The proper procedure is in place and regular testing is now Washington's lot in life. As it should be. And thus the Rangers are protected against a repeat offense. There won't be a second chance.

Washington played at a time when cocaine was a problem in baseball. We had those sticky situations with the Pirates and Tim Raines and Paul Molitor. The Rangers and MLB have little choice but to believe Washington that this was a one time stupid mistake. But the Fan would feel a little gullible to believe that.

Again, the timing of all this really sucks as the Rangers really have a shot at winning the AL West. Plus, this is the first major news story with the new owners in place. They must be thrilled.

Ron Washington will be on a short leash. If the Rangers get off to a slow start, his head will roll faster than a Dick Webber bowling ball. But that's the way it goes when you do something so stupid.

The Taming of the Screw...Ball

Daniel Bard doesn't throw a screwball, at least to this writer's knowledge anyway. But he is one of a handful of pitchers around baseball that fans would dearly love to watch on a regular basis. The heading was a bit of fancy about the "Bard" last name in case you were wondering.

Bard has pitched ten innings this spring and has struck out fourteen batters. He throws effortless heat and his last outing, he blew away all three batters in an 1-2-3 inning. Don't you just love watching that kind of performance? Think back: What was one of the best All Star Game moments in recent history? Wasn't it the time that Brad Penny came in and blew away batters with that 100 MPH gas? Wasn't it?

That's what's so exciting about Stephen Strasburg. He doesn't just throw an inning of gas. He throws several innings of gas. Those kinds of pitchers are rare. There was Bob Feller and Nolan Ryan and, for a while, Frank Tanana. There was Steve McDowell. That's fun to watch when a world class arm serves up steaming fastballs to challenge the best hitters on the planet.

Daniel Bard's sensationalism started last spring when he just killed MLB batters during spring games until the Red Sox just had to give him the ball. Bard had a few shaky outings, but for the most part, he lived up to his spring by pitching 49+ innings while striking out 63. He could easily be the closer for a lot of teams, but Papelbon seems to have that job nailed down pretty well.

But again, Bard is the kind of pitcher that makes you rise up a bit on the couch when he gets in the game just like Joba Chamberlain a couple of years ago and Nefti Feliz last year. "Oh cool! Bard's in the game!"

And Bard is like a spare part for the Red Sox, which is why they are such a scary team. They have arms all over the place that can mangle you. If they can get some hitting and improved defense and if their starters are better than last year, they could win 100 games.

But the ones the Fan will be most interested in will be in the games when Bard gets in there. The Fan just digs that gas.

Bashing Buster Olney?

The other day, Buster Olney over at ESPN.com (and their television station) "broke" a story that the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies were having "internal discussions" concerning swapping the two players in a trade. Since then, Mr. Olney has been under fire for reporting a supposed "non-story." His blog on Tuesday continued to defend the story and its commenters were particularly vicious in response. If you are an "Insider" at ESPN.com* then click this link to read the blog entry.

*Doing the Posnanski asterisk thing: The "Insider" moniker is killer marketing-speak. Everyone wants to be an insider right? The marketing is brilliant because it speaks to the desire many of us have to be part of the "in" crowd. Brilliant.

Anyway, here is the Fan's take on the whole thing. The Fan would bet that many of the comments were from bloggers who really envy the job Mr. Olney (or any of his cohorts) have. Imagine getting paid to write about baseball and be given the carte blanche to talk to people in the game that we love s much! Of course we all want that job. But Mr. Olney has it. So when any crack appears in his writing, the wannabe crowd goes wild with abandon.

Not that this Fan is immune to envy, and not that this space hasn't devoted any time to Mr. Olney's writing in the past, but a blogger should put any kind of pride off to the side when evaluating such things. Otherwise, we come off as unprofessional when it is our goal to be professional alternatives to pay sites that report the news.

It has been noted in this space that Mr. Olney can be a bit sanctimonious. His dictums on steroid users are notorious. He is a black and white guy from Vermont who has a bit of Norman Rockwell in his psyche. The Fan gets that. Unfortunately, there is little in this world that is black and white. Gray abounds everywhere. Judge for example, when many folks in this country are struggling like crazy, the former Cheers actress is getting paid for yet another reality program because she again put on a bunch of weight. That's pretty gray right there.

And the steroids issue will never be a black and white subject. It will be debated until the cows come home (Egads! A cliche!). The only black and white seems to be that many journalists like Mr. Olney will preach against the people known to have used and the fans will continue to not care a whit or at most, will give the known users a pass because so many used that will never get caught.

But this issue at hand is a tricky one. What exactly is news? Is a bunch of golfers speculating on when Tiger Woods will return to the PGA Tour news or is it only news when an official announcement is made that he is returning at the Masters? Depends on your interest threshold, the Fan imagines.

So is it news that internally, the Cardinals and the Phillies "thinktanked" such a deal? Or is it news only when the trade actually happens? Mr. Olney explained that it is news because it was indeed talked about and that the internal talks included such big stars. That would not be the case on the thousands of other internal discussions such as would Ceasar Izturis be a better fit for a team than Macir Izturis. Fair enough. Though some would seem interested in the smallest detail of such internal workings. The Fan would be interested in how those things worked.

So the bashing of Mr. Olney seems a bit unfair as his argument is fair enough. The discussions did take place and they involved two of the biggest names in the sport. Some of the more polite comments also have a point that needless pain and indigestion can occur when speculation becomes the news. Got that point too.

Mr. Olney's blog is entertaining and useful for the links he includes (maybe someday the Fan might see his name in there) and he is an earnest and thoughtful scribe. That is appreciated almost as much as him actually giving us something to read on the weekends when all other writers take them off (why exactly? - it's not like it's overly taxing work, no?). This Fan is glad Mr. Olney is around, warts and all.

Spring Games Can Get Weird

Cliff Lee got ejected for throwing at Chris Snyder. Of course Lee stated that a couple of pitches got away from him. And of course it was just a coincidence that Snyder had earlier run into Lee while scoring a run (Lee was backing up home). Yup. Coincidence. Mr. Lee can get a bit feisty, can he not?

Ben Sheets was a story that felt good when the Oakland A's signed him for $10 million after Sheets missed a year with arm problems. But that feel good story has gotten a bit strained. Sheets started the spring with two really bad starts and then pitched on Monday. He didn't get anybody out. Here is his pitching line:

0 8 10 9 1 0 1

Translation: Zero innings, eight hits, ten runs, nine earned, one walk, no strikeouts and a homer. That's a bad outing.

After glancing at box scores so far this spring, the Fan seemed to think that the Angels weren't hitting. They were shut out Monday. So just to see if the observation matched up with reality, the stats were checked and sure enough, the Angels are last in the league in batting average this spring. They are twelfth out of fourteen teams in OBP and last in slugging percentage. Matsui, Abreu, Aybar and Hunter are all way down in offensive categories. Sure, it's just Spring Training, but so far it hasn't been a pretty sight.

It has been really confusing looking at the Seattle Mariners' box scores. The problem is they have two shortstops listed as, "J. Wilson." One, of course, is Jack Wilson, the fielding wiz the Mariners plucked from the Pirates last year. The other is Josh Wilson, a journeyman utility man that has bounced around several organizations. If both make the team, maybe the box score guys can give us a break and go with, "Jo. Wilson" and "Ja Wilson." That would help. Oh, by the way, the odds aren't good for Josh. If you look at his playing record, he has stats for 2005, 2007 and 2009. Since 2010 is an even year, should he be playing? One other note for Josh Wilson: He has 484 major league at bats but he has also pitched in three major league games. That's odd.

For all the talk about BillyBall out in Oakland (they are even making a movie from the book), the Oakland A's seem like a poorly constructed offense. They are dead last in the majors in on base percentage this spring. Any team that has both Jack Cust AND Jake Fox on the same team seems like a bit of a reach. All they need now is Matt Stairs and they'll have a triumvirate.

Speaking of badly constructed teams, the Cubs don't seem to have enough pieces to put together a good season. They've looked bad this spring. The tell-tale sign is that they have been seduced by the "Kevin Millar is a great guy in the clubhouse" thing. Millar may be a hoot, but he hasn't hit worth diddly for several seasons now. On the bright side, Zambrano had a good outing today in a losing cause. But it seems odd he pitched four innings with zero strikeouts. That doesn't seem right for him.

Again, the mantra is: "It's only Spring Training." But last year, the Yankees finished decent in Spring Training with a 14-10 record. This spring they are 5-7. Telling? Worrisome?

Has anyone else noticed that the Nationals haven't won a game yet this spring?

And one last note: Mike Sweeney was again the DH for the Mariners on Monday and went 3-4. His batting average went down. Yeah, that's a good spring.

Who Knew?

The Fan was pouring over Friday's box scores and it was pretty disappointing since almost all of the Florida games were rained out. But then the link was clicked to the Chicago game and looking over the pitchers that worked the game, the Fan got a Wuh moment. You know that kind of moment right? It's when you rub your eyes to see if you are seeing what you thought you saw. One of the innings pitched for Chicago was by J. Papelbon. What!?

So the Fan frantically checked through all the news sites. How did the guy who lives and dies by baseball miss such an important trade? The box score looked legit. J. Papelbon pitched an inning, giving up no runs with two strikeouts and a walk. That sounded right. But how could it be?

After hyperventilating for a moment, the Fan had a lucid moment and went to www.baseball-reference.com and searched for Papelbon. Thank goodness. There were three of them. There was the Jonathan that pitches for the Red Sox and then there were two others, Jeremy and Joshua. They are all brothers. Who knew!?

Jeremy and Joshua are twins and are three years younger than Jonathan. Joshua pitches in the Red Sox minor league system and pitched in Portland last year. Hey! That's the Fan's state! Jeremy pitched mostly in AA last year for Chicago and finished the year at AAA.

Wouldn't it be kind of funny if Jeremy was traded to the Red Sox and all three were in the bullpen? They are all relief pitchers by the way. The Fan can see it now: "Pitching the seventh inning, Papelbon." "Now pitching for the Red Sox (in the eighth inning), Papelbon." "And it's time for the Red Sox to turn to their closer, it's Papelbon." Wouldn't that be something?

So anyway, the Fan hopes he is not the only dummy who didn't know about all of this. Three Papelbon pitchers. And they are all relievers. Fascinating.

Don't Look Back, You Can Never Look Back

Saw a video today of the demolition going on at the old Yankee Stadium. Didn't feel anything. The feeling brought to mind a song by one of the Eagles flying solo. Was it Glen Frey? Don't know. But the lyrics have stuck over the years:

"Saw a Deadhead sticker on a Cadillac. Don't look back, you can never look back."

That's the truth of it. Many of us try to relive the past or at least recreate it. We have high school reunions. We buy matchbox cars and old baseball cards on eBay. Some of us try to visit the houses were we grew up. The Fan has done all of those things. Only went to one reunion in thirty years though. But the overriding feeling for all of those things is detachment.

As kids, the Fan's immediate family always spent a couple of weeks down at Wildwood, New Jersey. It was the best part of our childhood. It was our escape and our magical times. We had a shoestring budget, but we stayed on the upper floor of this Italian couple, the Tropeas. It was homey and it was like our second home. Recently, the Fan's brother and sister spent some time in Wildwood and came back disappointed. Condos have replaced most of the houses and the Art Decco hotels. Of course it's changed. That's what happens in life.

Recently on Facebook, a bunch of the former employees of the software company the Fan worked for have started a group. It seemed like a good idea. But it leaves the Fan sort of ambivalent. The Fan put his soul into that company and as one of the first employees, helped usher it from a start up to a $40 million a year business. The business was bought up and moved to Georgia. That's life. It sucks, but there it is. Nothing stays the same for very long. The Fan still cares about the hundreds of people he hired over the years that are now scrambling to take care of their families. But there is no emotional need to rehash the times there. It's over.

Old Yankee Stadium is over too. Some of the Fan's best childhood memories are involved with that place. There was Craig Nettles' home run to win a 1-0 game. There were bat days and Bob Shepherd on the P.A. It was all magical and wonderful. But it's in the past. Once the decision was made to build a new place, the old place died. It's gone.

Many of us spend a huge amount of time looking back and trying to recreate the feelings that helped shape us. It doesn't work. That girl, Julie, from the Fan's homeroom is never going to be a part of the Fan's life. The house that was so special in Bergenfield, New Jersey, where the Fan and his brother shared all those good times on the side of the house building mud matchbox cities, is gone. Buying the house and trying to make mud cities now would just feel kind of stupid. Wildwood will never be the Wildwood of our childhood. And the software company once called ATX Forms will never exist again. Now you can add Yankee Stadium to that list.

Going back is never as special as the memories and the emotions that resonate from recalling them. You don't have to go back there because they remain inside us forever. Reconnecting with old friends like Jimmy Conrad and Tom Cairoli after thirty years might be nice, but in reality it would probably be awkward. But the memory of their friendships and the fun times we shared stay inside forever. The Fan can never get his dad back and anyone who vainly attempts to go to seances are groping through sand.

Yankee Stadium was a glorious place. It had a majesty to it. It spoke of the lore of history and echoed with the ghosts of Babe Ruth and others. When it was rocking and the fans were going crazy, it was a one of a kind experience. The Fan will always have those memories. But there is no sense in wishing to go back there. It's gone and will never come back. Heck, it's doubtful that there was a ghost of Babe Ruth there either. He probably knew you couldn't go back.

Some Spring Box Score Observations

Ah baseball. How we love you so. Every day there is something different and something new. Here are some fast thoughts after perusing the box scores from the tenth day of March:

• Greinke looks as good so far as he left off last year.
• Saw something in the Mets' box score that has never been seen before. The team's pitching line featured three pitchers whose last names started with "Nie." There was Niese, Nieve and Niesen. Jayson Stark might have a field day with that one. Oh, none of them pitched very well.
• Pedro Alvarez is really killing the ball for Pittsburgh. Will he head north with the team in April? Hope so.
• Brad Penny seems to be in line to be Dave Duncan's next miracle. He pitched four scoreless innings today.
• Joba Chamberlain got crushed. Hughes did better in his three innings. The Fan thinks Joba is a one inning pitcher.
• The Angels were held to three hits by the Reds' Lincoln, Rhodes, Leake, Wood and Kip Wells. Kip Wells? That doesn't look right. hmm...
• Mike Sweeney has been crushing the ball as Seattle's DH. Will his swan song eclipse Junior's?
• Granderson played center and Gardner played left. The Fan still thinks that's backwards.
• Sanchez smoked the Cubs for three innings with five strikeouts while Zambrano got kicked around. The Fan still isn't feeling the Cubs.
• Kyle Drabek pitched two scoreless innings for the Blue Jays. That's good news.
• Poor Pat Burrell hasn't had a hit all spring. Seems like he's lost it.
• David Price got hurt from a broken bat. If it was a maple one, those debates will come up again.
• Connor Jackson looks like he's going to have a great year.

Granted, none of these games count. They are truly meaningless. But a lot of fringe pitchers fighting for jobs are getting lit up. And there are a lot of interesting stories already developing.

Sure Wish Bradley Would Hush

This Fan has long tried to give Milton Bradley a pass on his reputation. For one, the Fan is a white guy and understands that no matter how enlightened, this type of reputation is enhanced by race. Guys like Bradley and Gary Sheffield and before them, Eddie Murray and Albert Belle, seem to get little slack for their respected reputations in large part because of their race. The Fan suspects that Jeff Kent was as much a jerk as Barry Bonds, but Kent was the "gamer" and the "throwback" while Bonds was...well, Bonds. And so the Fan has tried to give Bradley a pass. But each time the Fan tries to do that, Bradley speaks up again and what he says is such garbage that it makes the innards groan.

The Fan is going to play pop psychologist for a moment and consider that Bradley might have a problem. He is at best, insecure and at worst, schizophrenic. After all, consider that he has given an entire city as the reason for his nightmare of a season last year. It gets pretty paranoid when an entire city becomes this evil lurking thing that brought you to your knees as a player.

The nagging thought is that Bradley still might have a point. Things weren't going well in 2009 for Bradley and the Cubs. Both had high expectations as a player and a team respectively. Every projection picked the Cubs to win their division in 2009. They never even got close. During the midst of that spiraling down slide, Lou Piniella, the white "old guard" manager publicly called out Bradley and belittled him in public. Bradley didn't stand a chance after that with the fans and the city.

But the problem that goes along with insecurity is that sometimes you cover it up with bravado. Bradley couldn't bring himself to swallow his pride and answer Piniella with humility and try to change the city's perception of him. He never could understand that once the press turns on you, only humility and openness can turn it around. Nixon never learned that and neither has Bradley. And so he keeps fanning the flames despite how hard some of us want to see him turn his career back around and become the player he was in Texas.

If he would just hush up and play ball and answer his critics with performance, he would be much better served. But alas, he can't seem to do that. So this Fan's message to Bradley? The Fan's been trying, man. But you got to help him here. Just hush up for a while, okay?

Nomar Story Seems Odd

All indications are that Nomar Garciaparra fulfilled a lifelong "dream" when he retired as a member of the Boston Red Sox. Yes, it was one of those ceremonial signings where a former great player is "signed" to a contract that really isn't a contract just so that player can say they retired from their heart felt team. It's been done quite a bit in recent history. But the whole thing just feels odd here.

Nomar Garciaparra wasn't just traded from the Red Sox. He was unceremoniously dumped and then scapegoated as the guy who was holding the Red Sox back. His trade was supposed to be the reason the Red Sox finally overcame the curse when they won the World Series in 2004. This Fan has never heard any guilt being felt by any member of the Red Sox regime for the perception that Nomar was a hindrance on that team.

But now, Nomar wanted to retire. To this Fan, Nomar retired several years ago. The feeling here has been that he was playing more for the paychecks than the game. Perhaps he was never healthy those last five years. Perhaps he was never given a full chance. Who knows. This Fan certainly doesn't have the answer. But Nomar was similar to Albert Pujols when he first came up. He didn't quite have Pujols' power, but he led the league in batting twice and he was all but penciled in as a Hall of Famer.

But after that start, and what a glorious start it was for a few years, Garciaparra finished with under 2000 hits, under 250 homers and with less than 1000 RBI. He did finish with a .313 lifetime BA. But if you asked anyone in 2000 where Garciaparra would end up and everyone would have predicted 3000 hits, 500 homers and 1500 RBI. But it simply fizzled.

Garciaparra had a career similar to Don Mattingly and Fred Lynn. Bang. Flash. Strobe Lights. Face to Black. But whereas Mattingly and Lynn seemed to go down due to chronic physical problems, Garciaparra just seemed to lose his drive for greatness. Perhaps that isn't fair. But geez, it sure seemed that way.

The Fan knows his buddy, Josh, has whispered the steroid thing. Could be. But Nomar never got huge, did he? Many will point to his wrist injury in 2001 as to where it all went bad. But even that doesn't seem to cut it. When Nomar came back from that injury, he still put up good numbers. Sure, there was a 30 point drop in OPS+, but wouldn't most teams be happy with a shortstop with a 125 OPS+ which Garciaparra averaged the first two years after the injury?

But then came 2004. There was a salary dispute. Nomar wanted more money. The Red Sox weren't budging. There were whispers that he was pouting and dogging it. His fielding, always a strength before, took a dive. The fans were all over him. He seemed unhappy. Or maybe, it was one of those snowball stories where a semi-truth snowballs to an avalanche. The trade made it clear that Nomar was no longer a valued commodity. But was the trade the reason the Sox won it all that year? Perhaps it was more that David Ortiz (was he on drugs?) dragged that team to history. There is no real way to prove that Nomar was the problem.

But he was given that title and the team did nothing to dispel it. So now that same team makes nice-nice and both it and the player that parted so ingloriously are acting like it never happened. The Fan remembers it quite well. It did happen.

But don't feel bad for Nomar. He's made his millions and he married Mia Hamm (now that's a nice goal to score). And his name had just enough luster left that he immediately goes to work for ESPN, the sports equivalent to the ex-soldier getting the post office job. Not sure that he deserves it, but the Fan guesses that's not the point.

At one time, Nomar Garciaparra was the best player in baseball. He certainly was for 1999 and 2000. In just a flipper of time, he was the scapegoat of a franchise and a very small shell of the player that he once was. Guess it was time to go. Guess even more that it was overdue.

Young Talent

One of the things we all love about baseball's spring is the thought of the next great talent to break onto the scene. It's probably the best part of the whole deal. The unknown is what is so exciting because you never know if the young talent will find the way or if it just won't work out. For every Vida Blue and Doc Gooden, there are Felix Pie and Corbin Maybin. The Fan can still remember when Ken Griffey Jr. was the young talent and that turned out pretty well, eh? But it's hard to be the next Griffey.

It's hard because of the collective bargaining agreement. In the past, those young talents would make the club if they had a good spring. Mike Schmidt was allowed to struggle for a few years for the Phillies before he busted out into a Hall of Famer. Mickey Mantle didn't get much minor league seasoning. They were young, they were loaded with talent and they were thrust out there to see what they could do. Sometimes in worked out, sometimes it didn't (David Clyde comes to mind).

But now, with the arbitration process, teams buy extra time and artificially keep young talent in a delay pattern before they can bust it open. All the teams say the right things like they are protecting the player and making sure they are ready for the big leagues. Yeah, sure. The only thing they are protecting is a year's worth of big salary. And so Wieters didn't start the year with the Orioles last year. And Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman and Justin Heyward will all start the year in the minors "to get some work in."

It was quite a surprise last year when the Rangers broke camp with Elvis Andrus. But he is become more the exception than the rule. The one thing in Strasburg's favor is that he's already signed a major league deal and will be getting paid pretty well whether he's in the minors or the majors. So perhaps he'll make the opening day roster. Chapman also has a $35 million deal. So he too might buck the trend. But the Fan would be darned surprised if at least two of those three guys were on the opening day rosters once the season starts.

What the people that run baseball don't yet realize is that they are shooting themselves in the foot. Look at the excitement generated by Neftali Feliz last year once he was called up. Wieters did start slow once he was called up, but don't you think that Oriole fans were jazzed up when he was? Why delay that?

Young talent spruces up the game and gives people something to talk about. It's the life blood and renewal of the game which is why some of us have been fans our whole lives. Who doesn't want to know who the next Ron Guidry or Roger Clemens is going to be? The reports out of spring games on Chapman and Strasburg are electric. Heyward has done nothing but pound the ball and makes Braves' fans salivate. We can't wait to see them. We ache to see them. Bring them on.

Joe Nathan Got Really Bad News

The unfortunate fact for Joe Nathan is that the only times he seemed fallible have been on the national stage. When most baseball fans think of Joe Nathan, they remember post season failure. He's pitched in eight post season games accounting for eight innings in which he gave up twelve hits and seven runs. That is unfortunate because besides the post season, Nathan has been the best closer this side of Mariano Rivera. Today he found out that he has a significant tear in a tendon in his elbow. He has ruled out immediate surgery and is going to try to rehab it and see if he can pitch with it. That doesn't seem like it will work.

All of which leaves the Twins with a hole in the closer position. To be sure, somebody they already have like Neshak or Mijares or someone can be plugged into the spot and succeed 85% of the time. The odds are against a closer failing. Even so, Nathan was one of the best and it will be a mental letdown for the Twins' starters knowing he isn't back there to finish off their games.

Nathan had 246 saves in the last six years, more than anyone in baseball for that time period. He has averaged 5.4 hits per nine innings and WHIPs under 1 in every one of those seasons except one. His ERA was under 1.90 for four of those six years. He averaged more than ten strikeouts per nine innings during that time span. That's pretty hard to argue with.

And so Nathan was a lot like the argument concerning Alex Rodriguez all those years where he didn't perform in the post season. Granted, when Nathan needed to come up big in the post season, he didn't. But like A-Rod, there's no way the Twins get in that position without him.

Nathan is an emotional guy and his news conference today was a bit heart rending. He is 35 years old now and the only guy like him who has had an elbow injury like his at his age was Billy Wagner. Wagner looks like he has come back pretty well at an advanced age, so perhaps we haven't heard the last of Nathan. But it's a pretty serious injury and the odds are stacked pretty high against him.

The Twins are a good organization and the Fan is sure they'll find somebody to step up in the closer role. But those are pretty darn big shoes to fill.

Two Pitchers to Watch for 2010

There are a lot of intriguing stories for 2010. Will Joba or Hughes start? Will Dice-K come back strong? Can Hudson put it together for the Braves? Can Feldman repeat last year's success for the Rangers? Can Carpenter repeat for the Cards and stay healthy? All of these are great stories and don't even include other interesting ones like Halladay for the Phillies, Lackey for the Red Sox, etc. But two stories have piqued the Fan's interest, probably because both started Spring Training games yesterday. The two? Shaun Marcum and Chris Capuano. Both were promising pitchers who missed 2009.

Let's start with Marcum. The Blue Jays' pitcher was a former #3 draft pick who flew unnoticed (except by Toronto fans) for his first three years. In just about every major category, Marcum had improved over those two years and put up decent numbers. He was an up and coming pitcher who showed a lot of promise.

Marcum went 9-7 in 2008 starts after going 12-6 the year before in the same number of starts. The record again shows how little wins and losses indicate the worth of a pitcher. The 25 starts in 2008 were much better than 2007's starts. Here is a comparison:

2007/2008

ERA: 4.13/3.39
WHIP: 1.246/1.163
K/9: 6.9/7.3
H/9: 8.4/7.5

The trouble was that Marcum's elbow started acting up in the middle of the 2008 season (which might account for an increase of walks). He went on the disabled list in June for what was then termed an elbow strain. But the plug was pulled in September and he had surgery on that right elbow and of course missed all of 2009.

Marcum is on the road back and threw two excellent innings for the Blue Jays yesterday against the Yankees. If the Blue Jays can get even a 2008 type year out of Marcum, it will be similar to making a great trade and getting a good new pitcher.

Chris Capuano has been gone even longer than Marcum. The Brewers' pitcher last pitched in September of 2007. That's a long time to be away from the majors. After two Tommy John surgeries, a non-tender, a release (all with the same team), Capuano and the Brewers have some sort of cosmic connection because he keeps trying to come back and the Brewers keep giving him minor league deals to give it a go.

Capuano, who may be one of the smartest players in the game with an economics degree from Duke (after finishing high school as the valedictorian), was very good in 2005 and 2006 and looked like he was going to be a good pitcher for them for a long time. He then started 2007 at 5-0 and everything looked great. He made 22 more appearances in 2007, most of them as a starter. Milwaukee lost each and every one of those games. That seems like it has to be some sort of record.

Capuano hoped to come back in 2008, but had to shut it down. The same thing happened in 2009. But here he is back in 2010 and he made his first Spring Training start yesterday and had two sharp innings.

The Fan has an open heart for the underdog story and both Shaun Marcum and Chris Capuano are underdogs in that they were once promising until significant arm injuries ended their development. Now they are making the long road back to where they once were. The Fan is rooting that they both make it and have great 2010 seasons.