Trouble in Toronto

A story surfaced on Friday that in an unusual and highly public way, several players on the Toronto Blue Jays stated their concern over the way Cito Gaston manages the team. There isn't any need to recount the details here. Click here if you want to read the whole story. Without knowing the insides of the clubhouse there, all a blogger can do is comment on the extraordinary story to see if any of it makes sense.

First of all, the main culprits, instigators, defenders of sacred freedom (searching for the right word, because we can't know if they are right or wrong) are core players of the team: Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill and Rod Barajas. In other words, it's not just one or two disgruntled hotheads. That fact tends to lend some credence to what they are saying. But then again, the Mutiny on the Bounty was led by the first officer. If we discount the mutiny theory, what do we have then?

Gaston seems soft. In other words, he seems to be a "just let them play" sort of manager. Apparently, that seemed to work well during the championship years of the eighties, but isn't playing too well right now. A "let them play" manager needs a strong core of veterans who handle team discipline to fill the vacuum. Perhaps the championship Blue Jays had that. Perhaps they do not have that now.

The linked article mentions three problems. One is a lack of communication. Second is a passive managerial style (which we already talked about) and the third is a perceived negative attitude. Lack of communication is certainly not an uncommon problem with managers of any business. Communication is a skill that is either innate or has to be worked on. Gaston is an old school kind of guy. Perhaps the hear and obey dictum was what he grew up with and experienced in his own playing days. But communication skills can be improved with effort and training. The question is whether Gaston is open to that in this point of his life.

Gaston, for his part is either in denial or is totally baffled by what is going on around him. In his mind, he doesn't know how he could have been more fair. He believes he treated people the way he'd like to be treated. The last accusation is the hardest one to deal with. When a leader is accused of having a negative attitude, that's a bad, bad thing.

The Fan has been in leadership positions for a long time. And one thing most people forget is that managers are people too. We have good days and bad days. It takes a lot of will to consistently concentrate to not allow our charges to see us worry or fear or even believe that we are heading in the wrong direction. In other words, we are glorified parents that need to constantly remind our kids that everything is okay. But even parents get depressed or react badly to bad situations. How many times have you heard an adult say in front of a child, "So what else is new," when something goes wrong. Or perhaps, "If I didn't have bad luck, I wouldn't have any luck at all."

Most of the time, parents or leaders aren't aware that they are being watched all the time. Fortunately, the Fan understood this from an early age. But even so, there were times the Fan had to self-agonize when forgetting to mind the mouth after letting something negative slip. It can be a absentminded comment about a co-worker. It could be a negative comment about those higher on the food chain than the manager. Managers often do that in the mistaken idea that it builds rapport to have something in common to loathe.

No doubt that it's been a difficult year for the Blue Jays. It is terribly likely that a manager wouldn't handle that very well, especially after having some success in his job before. If Gaston took a walk on the negative side, he's made a huge error and will likely pay the price. This writer hopes that isn't the case because Gaston has always been respected in this corner. But if the problem is the manager or the players, it seems Gaston is history because the situation seems unworkable and untenable. If this is a case of spoiled players, good luck to the next manager. If this was Cito's fault, good luck to the players.

The Rockies Inspired Ride to the Playoffs

The Colorado Rockies won a game last night and put an end to the wild card race. Their ride through the summer has been one of the truly great stories of the season. What makes the Rockies' story such an interesting one is how the team started the season and what happened after they fired Clint Hurdle.

The Rockies played 46 games under Hurdle and were ten games under .500. Ten games under! They were 18-28 and everyone (including this writer) was writing them off as a bad team and a major disappointment. Then the Rockies fired Hurdle and made Jim Tracy their manager. Under Tracy, the team has gone 73-40. And the change happened immediately after the manager move too. Well, check that. They won their first two under Tracy, but then lost four in a row. Different manager, same old Rockies, right? Hardly. Then then won eleven in a row and an astounding seventeen out of eighteen.

The astounding run with Tracy is not without precedent. In 1988, the Boston Red Sox were floundering around under John McNamara who was then fired. His replacement, a little known career minor league coach and manager, Joe Morgan, led the team to a 46-31 finish and the AL Championship Series. Ten years earlier, in 1978, the Yankees were in the midst of one of those tumultuous Billy Martin years when Martin was fired. Bob Lemon took over and the Yankees went 48-20 the rest of the way and won the World Series.

Is it the manager? Did just making a new environment make the difference for those clubs and this year's Rockies? Who can say. Ultimately, the players play the games and for one reason or another, the Rockies have played brilliantly since Tracy was installed as manager. The Rockies are first in the league in OPS and second in OBP. All five of their starting pitchers, while not superstars, have ERA+ figures over 100. The bullpen which couldn't buy a save early in the year with blown save after blown save ended up leading the league in saves.

The biggest difference really is that this has become Troy Tulowitzki's team. The shortstop had a terrible year last year and started slowly this year. But the young shortstop has blossomed and his 134 OPS+ matches the fire and intensity that he plays with. Add in a seasoned Todd Helton, the comeback of Huston Street and you have a magical season.

So now it's time for the playoffs and the Rockies certainly have some holes. Like most Rockies' teams of the past, they have an .845 OPS at home and only .723 on the road. Clint Barmes, Ianetta and Fowler have struggled coming down the stretch. They aren't a perfect team, but nobody else is either. No matter what happens in the post season, nobody can take away a Rockies' ride that has been a lot of fun to watch.

Game Picks - Friday: October 2, 2009

It was bound to happen. The picks always come back to earth after a while. After several days of flying the high life, the picks settled in with a thud last night. Call it a market correction in stock terms. This picker was amused that he guessed correctly that Carpenter would only pitch five innings. But who could ever imagine that he would hit a grand slam and drive in six runs in those five innings while not giving up a run? Amazing.

The Fan can feel himself getting sadder and sadder as the season only has three days left. Ah well, let's buck up and see what Friday's games look like:

• The Cubs over the Diamondbacks: This is another one of those games that don't make any sense to pick. Gorzelanny versus Buckner? Going with the home team.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: Blanton will not pitch for very long with the playoffs ahead. And the Phillies bullpen leaves much to be desired.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: Like Berken over Purcey, though it's another game where anything could happen.
• The White Sox over the Tigers: A Tigers loss is the only way we go into the final days with any kind of drama, so there it is.
• The Astros over the Mets: Going with Wandy for one last time this season.
• The Reds over the Pirates: Like Lehr over McCutchen with the Reds at home.
• The Red Sox over the Indians: Dice-K makes his pitch to be on the post season roster.
• The Braves over the Nationals: Neither team has anything to play for anymore. But Lowe should beat Livan.
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: This is a terrible game to predict. How hard will the Yankees let Sabathia go for the 20th win with the playoffs right around the corner?
• The Twins over the Royals: Manship versus DiNardo? Yeesh. The Twins have to win to have any hope.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Wainwright will pitch five innings, but learned lessons from the Carpenter pick.
• The Padres over the Giants: The Padres are at home and have Zito to contend with. Not that hard a task really.
• The Angels over the A's: Weaver needs to show something for the playoffs in what will be a short outing.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: The Dodgers will finally win a game after limping into the playoffs.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: In a battle of reclamation projects, McCarthy faces Snell.

Yesterday: 4-6
Week: 38-26
Month: 4-6

Will Any More Managers Lose Their Jobs?

Eric Wedge bit the bullet yesterday as the Indians' manager. It's hard to conceive of what Wedge could have done differently on a team that couldn't pitch and lost Sizemore to a series of injuries. But that's the way it is in baseball. A manager who leads a club for three seasons with big expectations in each one of them and fails to get the job done usually finds himself unemployed. The question this post asks is if Wedge will have company once the season ends on Sunday.

A casual glance at each team and its manager does host a couple of possibilities for leadership changes in the dugout. The Cubs seem like an obvious one. Everyone picked the Cubs to win the division this year. They were evaluated to have the best talent, the best pitching, etc. Yet they had the Bradley situation and the Zambrano situation and though most of their problems sit at Hendry's feet, Piniella just doesn't seem the right guy for this team. With ownership changing, there might be a sweep out anyway. Hendry might be gone and his manager might be out with him.

Fredi Gonzalez with the Marlins is another possibility. The Marlins have great talent and yet just couldn't seem to get any long-term traction. They had a decent season, but Gonzalez consistently seems to make questionable bullpen decisions and he allowed some clubhouse problems to seep out into the public. He should have chastened Dan Uggla after that incident a couple of weeks ago and didn't stand up and support his star shortstop.

The Mets are in need of a shake up. The Fan can foresee a radical cleaning of that house over there. The GM should go after a series of fiascoes and Jerry Manual will probably be replaced as well. Don't be surprised to see Bobby Valentine in that dugout next season. Valentine will be in somebody's dugout, you can bet on that.

The Pirates are starting to collect some decent players but the Fan isn't sure that John Russell will be around to develop them. Russell doesn't appear to be the right guy there. This is unlike Jim Riggelman's situation in Washington where the Nationals seemed to at least be entertaining at times. The Pirates are on the right track with their pitching and yet they didn't improve their overall performance despite much better pitching.

The one super obvious choice here is Trey Hillman. Anyone who has been a casual reader here knows how the Fan feels about Hillman. While it feels mean to keep picking on the guy, he never makes the right move and he has single-handedly lost several games for his team. A manager shouldn't really make more than a one game difference either way for a team. But Hillman has lost several. He has got to go. If he keeps his job, then the Royals are just plain stubbornly stupid.

Game Picks - Thursday: October 1, 2009

September did indeed go out with a bang. It was kind of sad to see the Braves and the Twins' hopes of playoff spots go up in flames, but that's the way it goes. You need to play good baseball all year and not just the final month of the season. The Tigers aren't a great team, but they put a better season together than the Twins. And the Rockies won when it mattered and the Braves did not. Too bad the Braves closed against the Marlins, who just might be the best team that can't seem to get the job done all season. As for the Dodgers and the Red Sox, way to back into the playoffs fellas. Both teams sure stunk up the joint in the last week of the season.

Four more days of games in the regular season. For those who have already reached the playoffs, look for more B team games. For those not in contention, there is always stat padding to be done.

Here's what Thursday looks like:

• The Reds over the Cardinals: Carpenter goes for the Cardinals, but the Fan can't seem him going beyond five innings or so in what will probably be just a tune up for the playoffs. The Reds were 18-9 in September.
• The Twins over the Tigers: In a classic game of "it's too late, darling, it's too late," the Twins have Baker going against Nate Robertson. They should win.
• The Rockies over the Brewers: The Rockies will whack around Parra and finish the job for the season.
• The Diamondbacks over the Giants: In a game worth paying to watch, Lincecum squares up against Haran. These two studs are about even, so you go with the better offense.
• The Rangers over the Angels: Millwood should win against the Angels' B team.
• The Phillies over the Astros: Paulino has been terrible and Cliff Lee needs a good start before the big show.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Garza should have no problem here.
• The Braves over the Nationals: Hanson should beat Mock as the Braves try to act like it's not too late.
• The Red Sox over the Indians: Lester's five inning tune up against Carrasco should be enough to finally win the Sox a game.
• The Pirates over the Cubs: Maholm should have no trouble over the folding Cubs, especially with Samardzija starting for the Cubs.
• Oakland over Seattle: This Anderson kid is nasty. Two A-plus pitches. Just nasty.

Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 34-20
Month: 230-168 Final for September. 58%

Weird Vibe in Baseball Today

Perhaps it's the writer and perhaps it's just another night in baseball. But there sure seems to be a weird vibe going on in baseball tonight. The day started with another MLB manager getting fired. Eric Wedge got wedged out of Cleveland after three very disappointing years. His team, the Indians responded with Carmona throwing his best game since 2007. Even Travis Hafner hit a homer. Was that a sigh of relief?

Then the Toronto Blue Jays finished off a three game penalization of the Red Sox, who have now lost a bunch of games in a row and are heading into the playoffs looking like one of the worst teams in baseball. There were many times where posts here in the FanDome extolled the virtues of the Red Sox pitching. The Blue Jays totally wiped that pitching from here to tomorrow scoring thirty runs in the three game series. The Great Roy Halladay finished them off with another gem, striking out Big Papi three times in three at bats. It got so bad today that the Red Sox called upon a career minor leaguer getting a cup of coffee to pitch the last inning. This career minor league player? Dusty Brown. Ever heard of him? Dusty Brown is a catcher with one at bat in his entire major league career. He has now thrown to more batters than he has ever batted. If the poor blighter never plays another major league game (a definite possibility), he will end up with a .000 batting average and a 9.00 ERA.

Another thing about the Blue Jays' game. The scored 11 runs despite clogging the middle of their lineup with Kevin Millar. Millar stopped being a viable major league player about three years ago. Why is he batting third for the Blue Jays? Second thing. The Blue Jays got two homers from another lifetime minor leaguer named Rusty Ruiz. So we could have called this the Rusty and Dusty show. Ruiz has been up 98 times and has hit 9 homers now. His OPS is over .900. Why isn't this guy playing more?

Elsewhere, the Mets got swept by the Nationals. Nothing has gone right for the Mets this year. Last year, their bullpen basically KOed them from the playoffs and so they went out and got the best closer on the market in K-Rod. Unfortunately, after a great start this season, K-Rod can't get the deal done. The Mets had the game well in hand until the ninth inning and K-Rod came in and gave up five runs and the ballgame. Tim Redding, improbably, had his third straight quality start ruined in the flames. Ron Villone, who is at least sixty years old at thie point, got the win. Oh yes, the big blow in the ninth was a grand slam by Justin Maxwell with his silver hammer. The homer was only the fifth in his major league career. Maxwell pinch hit for Josh Willingham, who has an OPS that is .185 points higher than Maxwell's. Told you it's been a weird night.

Probably the two biggest stories of the night were the death tolls taken by the Twins and the Braves in their bigs for the playoffs. The Twins got Pavanoed by Bonine and the Tigers and can kiss their season goodbye. The Tigers got an early lead off a helpless Pavano and the Twins couldn't make a comeback against Bonine, Minor, Lyon and Rodney. Goodnight Twins. It was a good run. The Braves, after being the best team in September, lost two big games in a row to the Marlins and thus can bury their season in a hail of "what ifs." Javier Vazquez, one of the most talented pitchers of his generation, continued his long history of folding in pressure games. The guy is an amazing pitcher, but every time a game really matters, he folds like a lawn chair. Ricky Nolasco struck out 16 Braves, proving that Vazquez wasn't the only goat in this one. Nunez almost blew the save again for the Marlins, but good old Brendon Donnelly came in and saved it with the last out.

The Phillies game with the Astros was another weird one. Pedro Martinez started for the Phillies and was trying to make his bid for postseason time. He did okay except for one batter who hit two homers off of him. The batter? J. R. Towles. Pedro, one of the best pitchers of his era (if not the best), could not get a guy out who was going into the game batting .150. Towles, before this game, had a lifetime OPS of .574. Oh yeah, the Phillies destroyed Moehler (predictably) and won the game anyway.

Over in Ohio, the Cincinnati Reds ran their September record to 18-9 with their second straight win over the Cardinals. Bronson Arroyo is doing everything he can to get a good contract next year and ran his record to 15-13. John Smoltz got rocked again and is now a combined 3-8 this season. The Cardinals are going to have some tough decisions going into the playoffs. Pineiro finished the season on a bad note with several bad starts in a row and Smoltz doesn't seem to have what it takes anymore to get the job done. The big blow of the game came on a grand slam by journeyman, Laynce Nix. Nix now has 15 homers to set a new career high.

The Cubs are headed to a double-header sweep by the Pirates. In the first game, Charlie Morton, who had an ERA over six in his first dozen or so starts, pitched a complete game shutout. Ted Lilly gave up four runs in the first inning and then nothing the rest of the way in the hard luck loss. In the second game, Zambrano got lit up with ten base runners in six innings of work that led to four runs. The Cubs were stymied by Karstens and the bullpen. The Pirates' big stars for the two games were their catchers. Jamarillo drove in two with a double in the first game and Doumit is having a great game in the second with three ribbies.

The Royals finally managed not to blow a lead to the Yankees to take the third game of the series. Jeter went 2 for 2 with a walk and a homer to lift his average to .335 for the season. Amazing. Thankfully, Soria was available for the ninth and he closed out the win. It was another Joba Rules start for the Yankees and Chamberlain was terrible again. If the guy could just throw strikes consistently, it would be comforting for the Yankees.

Yes, it was a weird night. Too bad the Fan is too sleepy to see what else can happen in the late games on the west coast.

American League Rookie of the Year

Choosing a top rookie from the American League looks to be tougher than the National League because the position players have far fewer at bats and the pitchers don't have as much sparkling statistics. As in the last post for the National League rookies, we'll look at the top positional rookies and then the pitchers. We'll then try to tie it up in a nice little bow of a conclusion.

The postional candidates include: Elvis Andrus, Gordan Beckham, Nolan Reimold and Matt Wieters. Not a lengthy list, but these guys are the only ones with at least 300 at bats and stats worth looking at. For the pitchers, we have: Brett Anderson, Andrew Bailey, Jeff Niemann and Rick Porcello. Toronto had two good rookies in Cecil and Romero, but their stats don't measure up to those listed above.

Again, we'll start with the positional players. The Fan will list each player followed by some stats. The stats will be OBP, OPS, OPS+, Stolen Bases, UZR (a fielding stat), WAR (worth over replacement) and FanGraph's dollar value:

Elvis Andrus: .331 .705 85 32 (in 38 attempts) 10.1 2.8 $12.8 million
Gordan Beckham: .349 .816 108 7 (in 11 attempts) -2.0 2.0 $9 million
Nolan Reimold: .365 .831 114 8 (in 10 attempts) -10.2 1.0 $4.5 million
Matt Wieters: .345 .762 97 0 (no attempts) NA 1.9 $8.6 million

Comments: Clearly, Reimold was the best hitter of the group, but his defense was poor in a relatively easy position. Wieters suffers from having no value added to his WAR based on fielding other than the positional adjustment. Andrus is the lightest hitting of the bunch but runs the bases well and is a spectacular fielder at an important position.

For the pitchers, the stats will be ERA+, WHIP, FIP, Batting Average Against, K/BB ratio, K9, H9 (homers per nine innings), Wins, WAR and value.

Brett Anderson: 101 1.268 3.67 .264 3.30 7.7 1.0 11 3.8 $17.0 million
Andrew Bailey: 221 .0898 2.59 .176 3.71 9.8 0.6 6 (plus 26 saves) 2.3 $10.4 million
Jeff Neimann: 116 1.349 4.09 .265 2.03 6.1 0.9 12 3.0 $13.4 million
Rick Porcello: 110 1.349 4.81 .270 1.63 4.5 1.2 14 1.7 $7.8 million

Comments: Porcello has the most wins and has spent his year battling in the pennant race. He had perhaps his best game this week against the Twins when it really mattered. Bailey has lights out numbers but his value as a closer will never be as high as a good starter. Both Anderson and Neimann have been great, but Anderson has been better overall.

Conclusions: If Elvis Andrus had a better year at the plate, even a league average year, he would have been the runaway favorite with his superior fielding and base running skills. But his lack of batting stats seem to give the value award to a pitcher.

Rookie of the Year (AL): Brett Anderson. (but the writers will pick Porcello)

Game Picks - Wednesday: September 30, 2009

It wasn't a bad day for picks yesterday. It wasn't a great day either. Picked both games of the big double-header between Detroit and Minnesota correctly. Picked the Blue Jays over the Red Sox. But this picker can't seem to see the Dodgers win nor the Cardinals. And those dang Nationals keep beating the Mets.

The Fan still has a good week and a good month going so no matter what happens tonight, September is going to be the best picking month all season here. Even so, let's go out with a bang tonight. Here's how it looks:

• The Cubs over the Pirates: The Cubs keep piling up the victories after the horses have left the barn. Lilly is their best pitcher.
• The Indians over the White Sox: Don't like picking Carmona, but the White Sox are starting Torres.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Okay, go with the flow. Lannon is a very good pitcher on a very bad team and Redding can't keep throwing quality starts.
• The Phillies over the Astros: Pedro gives reason to give him post-season starts while Moehler gives up some bombs to Rollins, Utley and Howard.
• The Twins over the Tigers: The good news for the Tigers is that Verlander gave them a win last night. The bad news is that the Tigers have nothing after Verlander. Bonine? Oy.
• The Yankees over the Royals: Even the Yankees at rest can't seem to lose. Chamberlain gears it up for the playoffs.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: A ho hum battle of the also-rans in the AL East.
• The Reds over the Cardinals: Like Arroyo over Smoltz, especially if some of the Cardinals get rested.
• The Braves over the Marlins: The Braves lost a heartbreaker last night and the Rockies won, leaving their wild card hopes very faint. Vazquez tries to keep the pulse.
• The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Halladay continues to help the Red Sox back into the wild card.
• The White Sox over the Indians: Can't see Masterson beating Buehrle.
• The Cubs over the Pirates: Lots of make up games tonight! Zambrano should beat Karstons.
• The Rockies over the Brewers: The Rockies win last night was huge.
• The Padres over the Dodgers: The sleeping giant continues to sleep as the Padres will hit Garland and Richard will continue to make the White Sox look stupid.
• The Angels over the Rangers: Turn out the lights if you're the last one out. Weaver over Holland.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: The A's could be scary next year the way they have pitched in the second half.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: It sure leaves a bad taste in the mouth to pick Penny to win. But Mulvey won't get the job done.

Yesterday: 9-5
Week: 24-15
Month: 220-163

National League Rookie of the Year

With the end in sight for the regular season, it's usually common to start speculating about the award season. The MVPs for each league seem pretty much set with Mauer and Pujols. The AL Cy Young should go to Greinke. The NL Cy Young still seems a bit hazy. For Rookie of the Year, there are no runaway performers and the debate will rage between pitchers and position players. For this post, let's see if we can get a hard statistical eye on the rookies this year.

For position players, the field seems to narrow down to Chris Coghlan, Andrew McCutchen, Dexter Fowler and Casey McGehee. For pitchers, the only three worth boiling down to are J. A. Happ, Randy Wells and Tommy Hanson.

Let's start with the position players. The Fan will list each player followed by some stats. The stats will be OBP, OPS, OPS+, Stolen Bases, UZR (a fielding stat), WAR (worth over replacement) and FanGraph's dollar value:

Chris Coghlan: .389 .835 121 7 (in 11 attempts) -12.8 1.8 $8.2 million
Andrew McCutchen: .358 .831 122 17 (in 21 attempts) -0.4 3.1 $13.8 million
Dexter Fowler: .366 .773 99 27 (in 37 attempts) -12.6 0.8 $3.4 million
Casey McGehee: .364 .867 126 0 (in 2 attempts) -5 2.1 $9.4 million

Comments: The numbers seem to exclude Fowler. Coghlan and McCutchen both lead off for their teams. As such, Coghlan has the superior On Base Percentage, which is what you want from the lead off guy. McCutchen does more once he is on the bases. Coghlan had never played outfield before this season and his terrible UZR is explained that way. McGehee out slugs his competition and as such is a valuable middle of the line up kind of guy.

For the pitchers, the stats will be ERA+, WHIP, FIP, Batting Average Against, K/BB ratio, K9, H9 (homers per nine innings), Wins, WAR and value.

J. A. Happ: 154 1.200 4.22 .236 2.07 6.4 1.0 12 1.8 $8.1
Randy Wells: 138 1.307 4.02 .266 2.09 5.34 0.8 11 2.6 $11.9
Tommy Hanson: 140 1.193 3.57 .229 2.43 8.0 0.7 11 2.3 $10.5

Comments: Happ and Wells have significantly more innings pitched than Hanson which is a factor in Hanson's value.

Final verdict: Of all the players we evaluated in the National League, McCutchen has the highest value according to FanGraphs. The problem for the Fan in selecting him is the OBP for a lead off guy. All three pitchers have been outstanding. Happ's ERA+ is so much higher than the other two. But in the end, Hanson has better overall stats across the board. More strike outs per nine, less homers per nine, lower FIP, lower batting average against, lower homer per nine, higher K/9 and K/BB and the lowest WHIP. Plus, Hanson has been a stud down the stretch for the Braves.

The Fan's choice: Tommy Hanson

We'll look at the American League in the next post.

Game Picks - Tuesday: September 29, 2009

It would really be nice if a top of the line pitcher would get scratched from a start BEFORE picks are made concerning the game. Josh Beckett was supposed to pitch for the Red Sox. But his back was stiff. So instead of a game the Red Sox could have competed in, they get a young substitute to pitch and get absolutely clobbered. Not fair! Heh. On top of that, who saw both the Dodgers and Phillies getting hammered by the likes of Pittsburgh and Houston. In the Dodgers game, the talk of the Web is Russell taking Zach Duke out with two outs in the ninth and nobody on base. Doh! How stupid is that? But even after all of that plus the Nats beating the Mets, this picker still ended up on the plus side of .500.

Since the Twins got rained out in their death match with the Tigers, there are sixteen big games on tap for today:

• The Twins over the Tigers: Make up game of last night's rain out features the same match up of Blackburn and Porcello. The Twins get it down to one game.
• The Phillies over the Astros: Happ should beat the young Lopez.
• The Mets over the Nationals: Somebody has to win this game, no? The Mets have Pelfrey out there versus yet another rookie for the Nationals.
• The Indians over the White Sox: Masterson versus Torres. Yeah, good luck with either pick.
• The Yankees over the Royals: The Royals couldn't beat the Yankees B unit yesterday. They won't beat the A unit today.
• The Tigers over the Twins: We get to see what kind of pitcher Verlander can be for the post season today.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Wade Davis continues to make Bay Ray fans think about next year. Guthrie starts for the Orioles.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: The last time Homer Bailey faced the Cardinals wasn't pretty at all.
• The Braves over the Marlins: It's hard to pick the Braves in this one because Hudson hasn't shown too much since coming back and Josh Johnson is the Marlins' best pitcher. But the Braves are so smokin' it's hard to resist.
• The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Buckholz doesn't inspire confidence and Romero is going to have a good night.
• The Cubs over the Pirates: The Cubs continue to win after it's too late.
• The Brewers over the Rockies: The Rockies are struggling to the finish line and so is Marquis.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: The Dodgers finally clinch with Billingsley on the mound.
• The Rangers over the Angels: The Rangers appear to have simply given up after last night's 11-0 drubbing. But the Fan has to go one last time to the Feldman well. Go, Feldman, go!
• The Mariners over the Athletics: Felix Hernandez has a great game and continues to make it tough for Greinke in the Cy Young race.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Sanchez should win at home against Davis.

Yesterday: 5-4
Week: 15-9
Month: 211-157

Still Can't Get What Hillman's Thinking

A meaningless game was played in the Bronx Monday night, a day after the Yankees clinched the AL East. The Royals, going nowhere and playing with nothing to lose, faced a Yankee lineup with three regulars and a bunch of coffee cuppers. Chad Gaudin, who has done quite well for the Yankees since coming over from San Diego, would still not be considered one of the Yankees' core of starters. Young Luke Hochever started for the Royals against Gaudin.

Both pitchers kept their teams in the game for six innings. Guadin had given up two runs while Hochever had surrendered three. It was barely a quality start, but it was one nonetheless. And for Hochever, that could have been a good thing. Hochever has lost seven of his last eight decisions and really only pitched well in one of them. A decent start like this one could have bolstered his confidence a bit. But after giving up lone runs in three straight innings, why not let him get out of the game with some good feelings?

Nope.

Royals' manager, Trey Hillman, sent Hochever back out there to start the seventh. Cervelli, who really looks like he should be the Yankees catcher of the future, doubles off the wall to lead off the inning. Take Hochever out now? Nope. Pena singled to right and Cervelli scored. Take Hochever out now? Nope. Brent Gardner singled the left. Pena made it first and third with no outs. Surely you take Hochever out now, right? Nope. Hochever then walked Melky Cabrera. If the Fan was a KC Royals' fan, he would be screaming at the television right about then, "TAKE HIM OUT OF THERE BEFORE HE GETS KILLED!"

Hillman stayed in the dugout. Predictably, Robinson Cano hit a grand slam and before you can say, "A Trey full of salami," the game is over, Hochever has an 8 in his run column and his psychie. What did Hillman want from Hochever? Did he want him to "man up" and get through the mess? Did he want to do the old saw that says a young pitcher learns by trial by fire?

Hillman had a chance to have Hochever bail out of there after six innings with a decent start. Instead Hillman sends him back out there. Hochever gives up two quick hits and another run and Hillman leaves him out there withering. After Cano, what could Hochever have been thinking? If it was the Fan, the natural reaction would be, "I suck." Right? Good job, Hillman.

Peter Gammons on Baseball Tonight said on Monday that the Royals have some very good young pieces to work with. While the Fan can see two or three, Gammons could be right. But as long as Hillman is there, the team will take the shortest distance to a defeat of any team in the majors. It seems totally uncanny how good Hillman is at making the wrong moves.

He may be a good guy and the Fan could feel bad for writing this. But man, it's hard enough when you don't have the horses. If the guy can't steer the carriage, it's just hopeless.

Game Picks - Monday: September 28, 2009

Another successful day. Not at the trade show, mind you, which was a downer for the most part. Though the company did make one great contact that could possibly make us a lot of money. But a successful day at picking games. It's always great when the picks are correct twice as many times as they are incorrect. And so the last full week of the season begins on a high note.

What about Monday? Let's take a look:

• The Dodgers over the Pirates: The Dodgers would have clinched on Sunday, but sloppy fielding led to a blown save and thus the Dodgers will have to play hard for another day.
• The Phillies over the Astros: Hamels over Bazardo, whose name this picker never gets tired of saying. The Phillies magic number is three and then they can rest.
• The Mets over the Nationals: Let's guess that Figueroa will be better than Detwiler.
• The White Sox over the Indians: Ozzie Guillen's tirade after Saturday's loss was a thing of ugly beauty.
• The Twins over the Tigers: The Twins have to win this game to give the rest of the series any kind of drama.
• The Yankees over the Royals: The Yankees will rest half the team, have hangovers, start Gaudin and will still win the game.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: This pick is only because Hendrickson is starting for the Orioles. Otherwise, the Bay Rays should be embarrassed the way they mailed in the last two months of the season.
• The Braves over the Marlins: The Marlins have the better offense, but Jurrjens is better than Sanchez nine times out of ten.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: The Red Sox still have some business to attend to and Beckett is starting at home.
• The Angels over the Rangers: The Angels want to get the clinch over with and a win takes two of the magic numbers off the board in one snap.

Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 10-5
Month: 206-152

Some Facts About 100-win Teams

The Yankees clinched the American League East title Sunday with a win over the Red Sox. The win also gave them 100 for the season. The 100-win plateau has always been intriguing and is one of those magical statistical numbers that makes baseball such a cool sport. But it's not one of those magical numbers that gets much ink. To remedy that fact, here are some tidbits about 100-win seasons:

• The Yankees are the 87th team since 1901 to win 100 games.
• There have been 44 seasons since 1901 when no team reached 100 wins that season. Two of them were strike shortened seasons and two seasons (1918, 1919) were shortened by war.
• There have been 23 seasons that had at least two 100-win teams.
• There were five seasons that featured three 100-win teams: 2003, 2002, 1998, 1977 and 1942. 1942 was the only one when there were only 154 games in a season.
• The longest stretch of years without a 100-win team was nine seasons: 1918-1926.
• The longest stretch of years without a 100-win team since the 162 game schedule is three seasons: 1981-1983 (1981 was strike shortened).
• The longest stretch of seasons in a row with at least one team with 100 wins was seven seasons: 1974-1980.
• The lowest season (full seasons only) below 100 wins during the 154 game schedule was the 1926 Yankees that led the majors with 91.
• The lowest season (full seasons only) below 100 wins during the 162 game schedule was in 1982 when the Brewers led the majors with 95 wins.
• The Yankees have the most 100-win seasons with 18. Twice they finished in second place with 100 or more wins.
• The Athletics (Philadelphia, Kansas City, Oakland) and the Cardinals have the second most 100-win seasons with 8 each.
• 51 of the 87 teams that compiled 100 wins in a season have not won the World Series that year. That's 59%.
• Only five teams have won 100 games three seasons in a row: Athletics (1929-1931), Cardinals (1942-1944), Orioles (1969-1971), Braves (1997-1999) and the Yankees (2002-2004).

ESPN Forgets What Made Them

As mentioned in the Game Picks post, the Fan spent the weekend at a trade show. As such, there was no opportunity to watch the games either in baseball or football. After missing the games, the Fan was hoping to catch up on the action during Baseball Tonight and then the football pregame show that used to be so good every Sunday night. What a terrible disappointment.

Pure and simple, the Fan has had a very hectic, chaotic and busy summer. So there hasn't been much time to watch ESPN and their highlight shows. So it was an awful surprise to see how terrible these shows have become. They used to be so good too. They were the best and they radicalized sports news. The Baseball Tonight formula was to have a snappy announcer in Ravy and a couple of succinct and occasionally humorous color guys and tons of highlights and late breaking highlights of games still in progress. They still have the guys in place, but the show has become about them and not about the highlights. You may actually get a highlight once every ten minutes. The rest of the time they, "tawked, tawked, tawked."

Do the producers and the leaders of this network really think we tuned in all those years to hear those guys talking? Not at all. We tuned in to WATCH THE HIGHLIGHTS! The more the better. In the good old days, the highlights took up 80 percent of the show and the talking and special features took up 20%. Us business guys like the 80/20 rule. Now it's 35/65 with the 65 percent being talking and special features. It's terrible and frustrating and sad. We still have Ravy and Gammons and Kruk and Winfield is pretty good too. But they were our guides through what we were seeing, not the mess we have now.

The Football "highlight" show was even worse. Chris Berman was the host. Some love him. Some hate him. Count the Fan in the former column. And the show started out with the end of a game whose last play was a desperation lateral-happy fiasco. Berman did some of his patented sound affects and the Fan was smiling in recognition and good humor. Then the show went into the worst pits of hell possible. For the next 25 minutes (before the Fan just got disgusted and turned it off), three games were covered from the whole day. An average of two highlights of each of those games were shown. The rest of the time was four guys talking and talking and talking. Much of them saying the same thing the other guy said. When they hadn't said enough, they switched it to some other talking head in the studio who is all by himself and he talks some more, basically repeating what the other guys just said. Who is he? Why is he there? Never seen him before and he added NOTHING. Just more talk. And he had a really bad tie.

What happened? Where did they get lost? If we want analysis, we'll go to the blogs and to the major sports sites. THIS FAN WANTS H-I-G-H-L-I-G-H-T-S!!. The Fan wants video. The Fan wants to see the exciting plays. How did the game play out? Who made great plays? Why was the pitcher effective? Instead, we get endless blather about what happened, which is about as exciting as watching a United Nations session.

Bloody awful. How can something as successful as ESPN totally lose their way? How can they not understand what got them to be so successful in the first place? They made their money with their commentators commenting on the highlights. It was fast, it was hip, it was cool. Now it is monotonous to the max. When did they get the idea that watching evasive professionals during contrived press conferences is fun to watch? It's a shame because it was once the wonder of the television world.

What just occurred to this writer is that ESPN has gone the way of MTV. MTV was cool when it was all videos with just a few special events. It was about the music. Now it's one piece of schlock after another. Totally ruined. And ESPN has followed MTV right down the same rabbit hole.

Ichiro Suzuki Ejected

For the first time in his professional career (Japan or USA), Ichiro Suzuki was ejected from a game after arguing a called strike three. Apparently, after Ichiro drew a line in the sand, the umpire thought the Japanese hitting sensation stepped over it. The Fan's only question was whether Ichiro used an interpreter in the argument that ensued after the ejection.

Matt Wieters Settling In

Since this space featured a post concerning OLD catchers yesterday, it seemed like a good time to check in on Matt Wieters, the rookie catcher for the Baltimore Orioles. Remember him? During the spring, there wasn't a more highly anticipated rookie than Wieters. There was outrage (this blog was no exception) when he didn't make the club out of Spring Training and even more so when the Orioles started the season moribund. But then Wieters was called up as expected at the end of May. His start was rather sleep-inducing as he began slowly and the spotlight passed him by. How has the rest of the year gone?

The answer, happily, is that Wieters is starting to get comfortable in his new digs. Let's look at his season:

He started 2-11 in May. June wasn't a whole lot better. He started 21 games that month and batted .257. He was regularly in the bottom portion of the lineup and only had seven RBI for the whole month. His OPS was an unimpressive .691.

He hit a lot better in July and batted .323 for the month with a .364 OBP, but again, his production was limited as he had just three extra base hits the entire month and only drove in six.

Wieters regressed a bit in August as his playing time increased. In 24 games, he hit only .250 and had an OPS for the month of only .654. But he did double his previous month's extra base hit total and drove in thirteen runs, so that was a big improvement.

The Orioles have put Wieters in the third hole in the batting order and that's where they are hoping he will spend his career. September has shown signs that the move was warranted. His line for September is: .347/.412/.520. So after all is said and done, his season will end up right around league average in batting, and after the way he started, that's promising. It does appear that he was tentative and a little lost when he first arrived but is more aggressive and more comfortable.

Wieters also started slowly in the field. Base runners were stealing with ease against him early. But he has tightened it up and now stands at 26% for the season, which is just below the league average of 28%. The good news is that his caught stealing in high leverage situations is higher than the steals allowed in those same situations. Will he ever be great in this area? It seems too soon to tell.

Some times it is hard to live up to the great expectations that arise when a supposed "can't miss" prospect comes on the scene. The pressure of that situation must affect different players different ways. Most were disappointed by what Wieters showed early and moved their interest on to other things. But Wieters has marched on and is slowly getting his groove on. Time will tell if he will develop into an elite catcher in the major leagues. But after seeing what he's done over time, the prospects still seem like that will be a distinct probability.

Game Picks - Sunday: September 27, 2009

Happy Sunday to you and welcome to another edition of Game Picks. Had a decent enough day yesterday to end a really good week of picking. Sadly, we enter the last full week of games as the season will end a week from today. But then the playoff start and that's always exciting. The last week seems like it will be a difficult one to pick games as teams that have clinched will rest starters and then anything can happen. The Cardinals have clinched. The Yankees are a win or a Boston loss away from clinching. The Dodgers will clinch early this week. The AL Central has turned into a nail-biter coming down the stretch. Miguel Cabrera put the team on his back yesterday to strengthen the Tigers' chances. The Rockies lost so the Braves are now only two and a half back in the NL wild card race. It will be interesting.

So let's get started with today's games:

• The Yankees over the Red Sox: The Yankees will put together one last push to get to 100 wins and clinch the division in the same swoop. Pettitte gets the honors (which seems fitting) while the Red Sox counter feebly with Byrd.
• The Indians over the Orioles: Huff leads the Indians with ten wins (despite an ERA near 6) and has been good of late (3-1 2.88) and his opponent, Tillman, has had a rough September.
• The Blue Jays over the Mariners: Tallet hasn't had a good game since forever, but the Blue Jays are at home and face Rowland-Smith. This one is a toss up.
• The Marlins over the Mets: Like Josh Johnson over Misch. The Marlins aren't dead, so they will keep playing hard.
• The Dodgers over the Pirates: The Dodgers could clinch with a win and then Manny can take the rest of the season off. Kershaw over McCutchen.
• The Braves over the Nationals: The Braves couldn't have asked for a better final push schedule as they get the Nats while the Rockies get the Cards. Lowe will win today.
• The Phillies over the Brewers: Blanton is a better bet than Bush.
• The Reds over the Astros: Cueto versus Wandy. The Fan has been going with Wandy all year, but the Astros seem to have quit on the season and the Reds have been playing really well.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: Jackson versus Hudson is a fortunate match up for the Tigers as they attempt to stumble into the playoffs.
• The Royals over the Twins: Ah, the Twins are coming down to the wire but have to put Liriano out there to face Greinke. Not good.
• The Bay Rays over the Rangers: Have no faith in McCarthy for Texas while Price has looked really good lately.
• The Rockies over the Cardinals: Don't like Lohse in this match up against De La Rosa. Plus the Cards have clinched and the Rockies are still fighting for the wild card.
• The Angels over the Athletics: The A's have been fantastic of late, but Saunders should win this game.
• The Cubs over the Giants: The Cubs have been hot (too bad it's too late) and the Giants have been cold.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Horrible game to have to pick with Mujica versus Buckner. Going with the home team because that's all there is.

Yesterday: 9-6
Week: 62-33
Month: 196-148

A Tale of Four Old Catchers

This post isn't a comparison really. Three of the old catchers we will be discussing start. The other just plays once a week. But what is really striking is how different old catchers age. Johnny Bench was basically done as a young man and even moved to the infield. Carlton Fisk excelled into his forties. Generally, catchers don't hold up over the long haul. After all, it's a tough position. Catchers get beat up every single game they are behind the plate. Part of their job is to smother balls in the dirt even when it means bruised chests and shoulders (and shins, etc.). The four catchers we are going to talk about have all aged differently. They are: Brad Ausmus, Jorge Posada, Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Varitek.

Brad Ausmus is now forty years old. In all those years, he's never been very good offensively. Well, he did have two seasons at league average. But he's averaged 61 on the OPS+ scale for the three seasons before this one. It's easy to state that nobody has ever paid Ausmus to hit. In fact, the only thing he ever led the league in was grounding into double-plays (2002). But he's always had a great reputation as a catcher behind the plate, not only defensively, but for his handling of pitchers. The Fan still doesn't know how you measure that kind of thing. During his prime, he did throw out anywhere from 35 to 48 percent of base runners trying to steal against him. That's pretty good. In 1914 games behind the plate, he's only had 61 passed balls in his career. That's pretty darn good too.

But the last four years haven't been great for Ausmus. Not only has he not hit well, but his caught stealing rate fell into the twenties. How can you explain then that a 40 year old catcher has thrown out 38% this year? Or that he has his highest batting average in fifteen years? Or that he has his highest OPS+ in nine years? You can't other than his playing time is way down and he picks his spots in odd starts. Still, it's a nice swan song for the old guy.

Ivan Rodriguez has been a major league catcher for nineteen years now. When you think of Rodriguez, you think of his arm. Always the arm. And his numbers back up the hype. He's thrown out 46% of base runners trying to steal in his career. That's a weapon. Since the ideal success rate for stealing is 70%, the 54% success rate versus Rodriguez is outstanding. And he is still dealing there. Even at 38 years of age, Rodriguez has thrown out 33% this year. Still very good.

The one thing about Ivan Rodriguez though is his hitting. For twelve years, he was an offensive force. In those twelve years, he averaged an OPS+ of 112. He won the MVP in 1998 when his OPS was .914. He still has a career batting average of .299. He is no longer a force. In fact, he has become a rather easy out, especially since he basically forgot how to take a walk for the last eight years. He's pretty much a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame unless the whispers of PED use become confirmed.

Jorge Posada got a later start than those last two guys. But he's just as old. Now 38, Posada is still dishing it pretty well at the plate. Since Posada became the regular Yankee catcher in 1998, he has only had a sub-100 OPS+ season since. His lifetime OPS+ is 124, which is outstanding for a catcher.

But Posada has never been nearly as good a defensive catcher as Ausmus and Rodriguez. His overall RTOT for his career is -15. Compare his 133 career passed balls in 15 seasons to Ausmus's 61 in 19 or Ivan Rodriguez's 122 in 19. Both Rodriguez and Posada have had run ins with pitchers over calling a game. You never hear that about Ausmus. And Posada hasn't been great at throwing out base stealers. His career 29% is way below the other two. He is at his career average this year in that category, which is a surprise for a 38 year old.

Jason Varitek was probably the soul of the Red Sox during their championship years. As such, he has been the Red Sox captain which speaks volumes about his leadership during that time. He has the reputation as a fiery guy who is great for pitchers. Those are all intangibles that can't be measured. But you can't discount them either. What can be said is that he was the starting catcher for two champions. You can't take that away from him.

Varitek was a good offensive catcher for a stretch too. Though it took him longer to break into the major leagues than the others (the 37 year old is in his 13th season), he had a nice five year stretch where he averaged an OPS+ around 120. But three of the last four years have been abysmal. In his early years, he didn't strike out that much. But in the last five seasons, he has averaged well over 100 strikeouts a season. His one saving grace is his ability to take a walk, something Ivan Rodriguez has never been very good at. Varitek has something else over the other three we've talked about: He's the only one of the four that has not led the league in grounding into double plays.

Varitek has been a good defensive catcher on the RTOT scale with a positive number for his career. But like Posada, he's never been great at throwing out runners. His career number of 24% is even worse than Posada's. So you can't lump him into the same category as Rodriguez and Ausmus. And unfortunately, this year has been historic in failing in that category. He's thrown out only 12% of base runners this season. He's been stolen on 106 times and has only caught 15 of them. Ugh! Those are similar to a certain former Dodgers/Mets catcher.

Of these four old catchers, all of them have had bright moments with playoff teams. All of them have been among the best of their era for differing reasons. Ausmus has had a nice swan song this year. Ivan Rodriguez is no longer a valuable major leaguer. Posada is still an elite offensive catcher. Jason Varitek unfortunately, looks like he has played one season too many.

Game Picks - Saturday: September 26, 2009

Aww! Hot streak over. Back to our regularly scheduled programming. Well, it had to happen. Hit streaks end with "O-fers" and pick streaks end with the mean. But that's okay. Ian Kinsler reached 30/30. Roy Halladay pitched a masterpiece. The Twins gave us a reason to keep checking the standings. It's all good.

It's hard to believe, but the MLB season has only nine or ten games to go (depending on the team). It's also hard to believe September is almost over too. All four major sports are in full gear. The PGA is in its last week before the silly season (go Tiger!). The leaves on the trees are in their peak of full colors (at least up here). It's all a crescendo before winter sets in.

And so, my friends, there are only a few days left of these daily picks. Let's enjoy them together on a beautiful Saturday:

• The Braves over the Nationals: The Braves need a miracle, but they aren't dead yet. Hanson goes today.
• The Mariners over the Blue Jays: Purcey isn't Halladay.
• The Cubs over the Giants: How can the Fan pick the Cubs when Gorzelanny is starting? The Giants can't hit, that's how.
• The Yankees over the Red Sox: The Sox couldn't beat Chamberlain. They're not going to beat Sabathia.
• The Phillies over the Brewers: Going with Kendrick over Looper.
• The Pirates over the Dodgers: The Dodgers mailed it in last night. Maholm is the Pirates best pitcher.
• The Reds over the Astros: Hard to fathom the Astros sticking with Paulino. The Reds will continue to give their fans hope for next year.
• The Orioles over the Indians: Toss up game of Berken versus Sowers. Who knows.
• The White Sox over the Tigers: The Tigers are playing with wobbling knees these days. Barely a whimper out of them last night.
• The Marlins over the Mets: That is if the Marlins' bullpen doesn't implode again, which seems like a nightly occurrence.
• The Twins over the Royals: The Twins continue to make this very interesting.
• The Rangers over the Bay Rays: Millwood smiles as he counts his money for next year.
• The Rockies over the Cardinals: The Rockies have to keep winning. The Cardinals don't. Jiminez has beat all the best pitchers in the NL. Wainwright will be another.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Have a feeling Haran will come up big today.
• The A's over the Angels: The A's have had a good second half. Too bad their first half was such a stinker.

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 53-27
Month: 187-142

Yet Another Post About Intangibles

The word, "Intangible," has been bandied about for quite some time in baseball. But the term is much more prevalent in the years following the growing acceptance of sabermetrics (now a generic term for all new baseball stats) and is usually used to refute those newfangled stats. Old timers say, "You can't measure intangibles." Derek Jeter's name is usually a lightning rod for such discussions. But other players whose names are mentioned often are Manny Ramirez (in a negative way), Milton Bradley (ditto), Kevin Millar (the great clubhouse guy) and so on. Two of the players just mentioned were part of the 2004 World Series Champions, the Boston Red Sox. That team's lore has been filled with much "intangible" stuff and is probably as good an example as we can find to examine the word.

The Red Sox team of 2004 entered that season with a championship drought that went back to 1918. The team just couldn't seem to get by the Yankees and their fans had a fatalistic view of life. Frankly, it was much more charming than the bully mentality those same fans have now. Anyway, much mystique has been built around that team. The examples are boundless. The team turned around when they dealt Nomar Garciaparra away. That was an intangible. The team got a spark from Orlando Cabrera, their new shortstop, who was such a positive force. Another intangible. Kevin Millar and his band of idiots kept the team loose and helped them overcome past demons. Intangible. Curt Schilling was indomitable and his bloody sock inspired the team. Intangible.

It's hard to refute those kinds of things. We can't psychoanalyze the players on that team in retrospect. Certainly, a positive mental approach to the game is a good thing. Otherwise we wouldn't have sports psychologists (it seems that Jon Smoltz was a leader in that movement). Kevin Millar is still supposedly a great clubhouse guy. But he had a career year in 2004. He's the same guy for the Blue Jays this year and that team has fallen on hard times and Millar has been terrible. Was he part of the Red Sox success for reasons other than performance? It hasn't worked out that way for him since 2004.

Maybe, just maybe, the reason the Red Sox got past their long-time hump in 2004 had nothing to do with intangibles and had everything to do with performance. Let's start with the Garciaparra trade which also leads us to the addition of Cabrera. The trade was completed at the deadline of July 31, 2004. The team at that point was sitting at 56-46 and in second place (where they ended up by the way). That was good for a .549 winning percentage. They went 42-22 the rest of the way. They then proceeded to beat up on the Angels for a sweep of the ALDS and then made history with the Yankees in the ALCS. The rest was anti-climatic as they swept the Cardinals in the World Series.

It certainly seems that they were a much better team after Garciaparra left. So that intangible must be correct right? Garciaparra was pouting. He didn't get the feeling he was appreciated. He was a negative impact on the bench and blah blah. They got Orlando Cabrera in return. Cabrera was no where near the offensive player Garciaparra was that year. Garciaparra posted a 118 OPS+ for the Red Sox that year. Cabrera finished at 97. The one contribution of the trade was in the field. Cabrera was vastly superior than Nomar at shortstop. That's a measurable and not an intangible. While Nomar's bat was worth a win or so over Cabrera, Cabrera's fielding evened that out value-wise.

So yeah, the team was a .549 team with Nomar and a .636 team with Cabrera. Must be that intangible thing. But again, remember that Cabrera wasn't the offensive player that Nomar was, even at that point in their careers. Yet the Red Sox posted their best team batting stats in August. And that had been building since the beginning of July as July was their second best hitting month. Kevin Millar had an OPS of .762 in the first half and went .975 in the second half. Jason Varitek had an OPS of .818 in the first half and .942 in the second half.

The pitching was outstanding in August as well. They posted their second best ERA month of the season in August behind only April. Their strikeout to walk ratio jumped that month. And the fielding certainly improved. The team gave up far few unearned runs in the second half than in the first half.

To this writer, the only intangible that seems to count was the Dave Roberts walk and stolen base that led to a blown save by Mariano Rivera in Game 4 of the ALCS. That blown save gave the Red Sox the impetus they needed to win the next three games. It was one of the few times in the Fan's life that he knew what was going to happen before it happened. As soon as the Fan saw Roberts cross home plate, the series was over. It just was. There is no other explanation.

But take that with a grain of salt. The Red Sox simply out-performed a flawed Yankee team the rest of the series. Those numbers are calculable for all to see.

So the bottom line after all these words? Perhaps there isn't one. The Fan would like to rule out intangibles as a fallback for any argument. Team chemistry may be worth a game or two in the standings. But for every Kevin Millar, there was a Manny Ramirez, who most would agree, was more a negative clubhouse presence than Nomar ever was. Who knows. Fate could be brought into the argument. The stars aligning could be true too. The only facts we can hang onto are that the Red Sox were slightly statistically better in the second half than they were in the first. They had a very talented team. They had the second best record in the majors, they were first in the AL in OPS and second in the league in earned runs allowed. That's a pretty potent combination that seems like it would have won, intangibles or not.

Game Picks - Friday: September 25, 2009

*Blink* Yeah. 8-1 last night. 32-8 over the last three days. Whuh? Now this picker knows what it feels like to go on a hitting streak. And it also proves nothing, just like that hitting streak. The basis of all statistical analysis is not what is going on in the short term, but what has happened over time and how that data will prove out in the future.

History shows that your game picker will be right 53.6% of the time. That's what 3083 picks over time shows. So that probably means that this current hot streak is just that. The Fan hasn't finally figured it out. It's just a hot streak and will be enjoyed for what it is. But it sure has been fun.

Ignoring the feeling that we should quit while we're ahead, let's go stumbling into Friday's games:

• The Dodgers over the Pirates: The Rockies might have done a favor to the Dodgers by getting so hot over the last two months. The Dodgers got off to such an early lead that they kind of coasted. Now they are playing better with the need to clinch and get this over with.
• The Braves over the Nationals: The Braves are three games off the wild card lead and are 10-2 over the last couple of weeks. Vazquez, who has been brilliant pitches tonight.
• The Orioles over the Indians: The Indians have lost 11 in a row. Carmona has been terrible which would leave the prospect that 12 looks imminent.
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: The Yankees may win a few Joba Rules games here and there, but not against the Red Sox and Jon Lester.
• The Blue Jays over the Mariners: Like the Jays' chances with Halladay on the mound against the weak hitting Mariners.
• The Marlins over the Mets: Yeah, Redding has been pitching great lately. But would you bet your life on him?
• The Reds over the Astros: The Reds sure have looked sweet lately.
• The Phillies over the Brewers: Cliff Lee in a basically meaningless game.
• The Bay Rays over the Rangers: Last one up turn out the lights. It's that time in Arlington.
• The Cardinals over the Rockies: The Cardinals have basically clinched. Playing the Rockies gives them that natural incentive to knock off a contender for the wild card.
• The Twins over the Royals: It really hurts to pick Pavano to win. It really does.
• The White Sox over the Tigers: Only because Peavy is pitching and the White Sox are still trying to impress the newcomer. Oh yes, the Tigers are starting Bonine. Who?
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Another one of those "anything can happen" type of games.
• The Angels over the Athletics: The Angels want to clinch and get this over with.
• The Cubs over the Giants: Zambrano over Lincecum, who hasn't been himself of late. Back problems?

Yesterday: 8-1
Week: 46-19
Month: 180-134

Jim Ed Rice - Oh Man. Shush Already

Jim Rice hasn't exactly lit up the world since he was voted into the Hall of Fame. While this writer still thinks that vote was dubious, it is clear that Rice has strong opinions and those opinions are even more dubious. First he disses several current Yankees including Derek Jeter by telling a bunch of kids that the players in question aren't good roll models. Now he comes up with this gem. (The headline is more spurious than the actual post if you click on the link in the word, "gem.")

Let's start with the opening headline of Rice's winner: "Greinke is a Good Pitcher, Not Dominant." Let's at least give Rice's site props for capitalizing the heading, a rarity these days. But other than that, what a dumb thing to say. Not dominant? 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings, not dominant? Uh. That's a really good number for a relief pitcher. But a starter? That seems to be dominant. Batters have a .608 OPS against him. That means that on average, every batter he faces is WORSE than Yuniesky Betancourt. That sounds dominant, no? He has given up 0.5 homers per nine innings. The league average is 1.0. Sure sounds dominant.

If you turn Rice's words around, he's really dissing his own team. Greinke wasn't dominant, but the Red Sox didn't do anything with him? That must mean that the Red Sox weren't up for just a plain old good pitcher. Oops.

Rice's big point was that Greinke wasn't as dominant as Pedro Martinez or Roger Clemens. If he made the point that Greinke hasn't been as dominant for as long as those guys, that would be valid. But for this season at least, Greinke is in the ball park. Zack Greinke is as dominant as there is in the American League this season.

Proverbs 18: 1-2 says: "Even a fool, when he holdeth his peace, is counted wise: and he that shutteth his lips is esteemed a man of understanding." That has been corrupted to today to be: "It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt." The problem is that he gets paid by NESN to speak no matter what comes out of his mouth.

Rice is just another old ball player stuck in the past who believes that what he "knows" and what he "sees" is more reliable than data because, after all, he was a star player. Now with HOF cred, he is even more empowered to believe what he believes. Oh well. Knowledge is knowledge and with all the thoughtful and informed writers all over the country with knowledge at their fingertips. Those sheer numbers of educated people will surely overcome one old foo...err...player.

Thoughts About Bobby Cox

Switching to the first person: I always liked Bobby Cox. How could I not? As a twelve year old kid keeping score for every Yankee game as a New Jersey youngster, Cox played third base for the Yankees for two years in 1968 and 1969. It would end up being his only two years in the majors. And for that team, he was pretty good.

The 1968 Yankees were perhaps the weakest hitting team in the history of the majors. The team batted .214 for the year. That was easily the worst in the American League that year. It was the last year for Mickey Mantle, the hero. Many, including Mantle, say he shouldn't have played that year. He only hit .237. But he walked over a hundred times and still had an OPS+ of 142. That was certainly better than anyone else on that team.

Cox was a proud member of the weakest hitting collection of infielders ever. Horace Clarke was given 607 plate appearances and put together this incredible line as a lead off guy: .230/.258/.254. He scored 52 runs. He had nine extra base hits. Nine. The guy was terrible. But he wasn't alone. There was Tom Tresh, who played 150 games and batted .195. There was Gene Michael, who batted .198 in 119 plate appearances. There was Dick Howser, who batted .153 in 190 plate appearances. There was Mike Ferraro, who batted .161 in 87 at bats. There was Ruban Amaro who batted .122 in 50 at bats.

Bobby Cox was a stud among those guys. His line for that season? .229/.300/.316. Hey, compared the the litany you just heard, that's a stud. So certainly he was one of our favorites. At least he got on base once in a while. But again, he only played two seasons and then disappeared.

Wasn't I surprised when ten years later (1978), he shows up as the manager of the Atlanta Braves. Cool! But not so cool because the Braves were awful. They lost 93 and 94 games his first two years there. The 1978 Braves posted the worst batting average in the National League that year. Cox's streak continued!

The 1979 Braves were worse. Their batting improved to eighth in the league, but their pitching was dead last. That was the year Phil Niekro won 21 games, but lost 20, a feat that may never happen again. The rest of the starters were 24-46. Gene Garber lost 16 games in relief. To lose 16 games as a relief pitcher may never happen again either. It's an amazing fact.

1980 saw the Braves improve to a .500 club. They finished in fourth place. A moral victory of sorts. But when the strike year of 1981 saw a regression for the Braves, Cox was done for his first stint as a Braves' manager. Few remember that he spent the next four seasons as the manager of the Toronto Blue Jays.

I would say he had a successful run for the Blue Jays. He inherited a bad team there in his first season as manager in Toronto. The team finished last in the division in 1982. But the team went on to win 89 games the next two seasons and finished fourth and second respectively.

But 1985 is the season to remember. The Blue Jays won 99 games that year and easily won the division. Then they played one of the most memorable American League Championship Series ever against George Brett and the Royals. The Royals won it in seven games but it was nip and tuck all the way. Bobby Cox came a game away from taking that team to the World Series. It was the last game he would manage for the Blue Jays.

Remarkably, he didn't manage for the next four seasons. He almost didn't manage for the fifth, but the Braves fired Russ Nixon half way through the 1990 season and Cox took over. It was too late to turn that team around as they finished sixth. But the rest is history as the 1991 season started a run of success that is unparalleled in the history of Major League Baseball. During that run, the Braves finished: 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.

Of course, the knock on Cox is that in those thirteen first place finishing seasons, his teams only won the NL pennant five times and the World Series once. But I don't think that diminishes the job Cox did at all. He won all those years in all kinds of ways. He won with a big offense and with hardly any offense. He brought in young players and the team stayed consistent through all those years. And sure a manager probably gets too much credit when a team is successful. The team's general manager and scouts deserve a lot of the credit, the players deserve a lot of the credit, but the constant was Cox. He was always there to get the most out of his teams and they did nothing but win.

The Braves fell on harder times in recent years. There fabulous starting pitchers got old. Their ownership faltered. But they were never really a rollover team. Cox kept them competitive and they are in second place this year and were only a Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez away from being able to give the Phillies a run for the money. It will be fun to see what they can do next year.

And it should be a year to celebrate Bobby Cox. Look, I have always hated the Braves. In fact, it's one of my security questions on one of my accounts: "Which team do you root against the most?" The Braves. But you can't hate Bobby Cox. He has earned too much respect for too long and he's always been a first-class guy. I hope the Braves' fans and all baseball fans appreciate him and give him a loving ride next year. He deserves it.

Game Picks - Thursday: September 24, 2009

Two very good days in a row? Can you feel it? Is there a full moon? No. Are the planets aligned? No. Was it luck? Maybe. Whatever it is, it's time to bask a little in success, if only for a couple of days. Heck, the FlagrantFan is even in first place for the week on BallHype.com. That won't last though, not with their goofy scoring system. The only bumps on the road were another loss for Marquis (what's with that?) and the Blue Jays beating up on the Orioles (should have seen that coming).

And the good news is that Thursday is a short schedule so things can't go terribly wrong until Friday. Here's what little Thursday has to offer:

• The Reds over the Pirates: Arroyo should have little trouble here against Morgan and the light-hitting Pirates.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: Go Feldman, go! On the road? Check.
• The Dodgers over the Nationals: Padilla's freak side hasn't come out yet for the Dodgers. It will eventually. But not today.
• The Tigers over the Indians: Carrasco was the big pearl the Indians received in the Cliff Lee trade. But he's just been a big oyster so far. Verlander will get it done.
• The Mariners over the Blue Jays: Felix Hernandez needs two more good starts to stay in the hunt for Cy Young.
• The Phillies over the Brewers: Happ is pitching versus Suppon. Even as a rookie, Happ is the better pitcher.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Buckholz is showing flashes of his hype. The Royals start Lerew which rhymes with - who?
• The Padres over the Rockies: Going with the young Richard over Hammel. Still say the White Sox were crazy for trading him.
• The Cubs over the Giants: Still can't believe Penny is doing this well for the Giants. Perhaps this will be the night he gets back to where he's been.

Yesterday: 11-4
Week: 38-18
Month: 172-133

Brian Roberts: The Quiet Oriole

Year in and year out, Brian Roberts plays the game to little fanfare. Granted, he's been stuck on a terrible Orioles team for his whole career, but still. Every once in a while, his name will come up on trade talks and rumors, but he's still an Oriole and he just goes about his business of putting productive numbers on the board.

Part of his problem is that his numbers never really pop out at you. As a lead off hitter, his lifetime OBP is .354. Good, but not elite. He has stolen 255 bases in his career with a very impressive 80% success rate. But he's only led the league in that category once. He has only batted over .300 once in his career. He's never had more than 200 hits. FanGraphs only rates him as the 15th best fielding second baseman in baseball.

Despite all that, for a second baseman, the guy quietly goes out every year and puts up above league average offensive seasons on the board. Brian Roberts also does one thing really, really well besides stealing bases: He hits a huge amount of doubles. Roberts has been a full-time starter for six seasons (it seems longer). This year will be the third time in those six seasons where he has hit more than 50 doubles. This year, he has 55 and has a long-shot chance to reach 60. If he gets there, it will be the first time a MLB player has hit 60 doubles since 1936. That would be a pretty cool feat.

Roberts has scored over a hundred runs once again this year (the third year in a row) and is having a good power year with fifteen homers. He's also knocked in 74 runs, excellent for a lead off guy.

Brian Roberts isn't a guy who will wow you. But his consistent and relentless production stand up for what has been a pretty darn good career.

Game Picks - Wednesday: September 23, 2009

Tuesday's picks were the kind you dream about. Everything went right except for the Marlins winning the second game against the Phillies, the Bay Rays losing improbably and the Giants, who just as improbably, scored ten runs and lost. Other than that, there was nothing but "W's" all over the place. It sure feels good to have a good day for a change. Can't believe that so many doubters didn't think Greinke would beat the Red Sox. The guy is the best pitcher in the American League. Period. Anybody who doesn't vote for him for Cy Young is a moron.

Okay. The question now is: Can this picker build on such a good day of picks, or will the picks fall back to the mediocrity that has permeated this place for more than a week. The former would be nice. Let's see what we have to deal with:

• The Yankees over the Angels: It's Kazmir for the Angels and the Yankees have 34 wins against lefties. A. J. Burnett goes for the Yanks.
• The Reds over the Pirates: Homer Bailey has looked good of late.
• The Dodgers over the Nationals: The best team in the National League versus the worst.
• The Tigers over the Indians: Porcello versus Masterson. Masterson has got talent, but can't seem to stay on top of it. How come Porcello doesn't have Joba-like rules?
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: Just like Guthrie's chances better than Richmond's.
• The Bay Rays over the Mariners: Two young guns: Wade Davis versus Brandon Morrow. Davis is the next big pitching star.
• The Braves over the Mets: Hanson was cruising in his last start and then somehow lost it. He won't against the Mets.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: The Phillies have clinching on their minds.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: This is one of those impossible to predict games. Two young pitchers but the one for the Cubs is making his first start of the year.
• The Astros over the Cardinals: Just can't pick Smoltz to win a game.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Beckett should cruise in this one as long as he can keep the balls in the park.
• The Twins versus the White Sox: One of these years, the Twins will play a whole season like they play the last month.
• The Rockies over the Padres: Hey Colorado! You're going to have a playoff team!
• The Angels over the Athletics: Mr. Hunter continues his pretty good rookie season.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: If the team doesn't pack it in after last night's loss, that is.

Yesterday: 13-3
Week: 27-14
Month: 161-129

Houston's Love for Cooper Tires

Nice guys finish last. Nah. Nice guys who can't communicate, finish last. The Astros fired their manager, Cecil Cooper, yesterday after four years of not being able to live up to their 2005 World Series appearance. For more on what went down, click here. Maybe Cooper wasn't the right guy for the job. Maybe he wasn't the answer. But maybe, just maybe, the players he was given to manage weren't good enough. Here is (using Rob Neyer's words) the money quote from owner Drayton McLane:


“If you'll look, this is the most expensive baseball team the Houston Astros have ever had,” McLane said. “It's a huge investment we've had here. It's over $100 million. And we invested it in players that we thought could be championship players."

This may be an attempt to justify the firing of their manager with nothing to lose at the end of a bad season, but it is just as much an indictment of the front office for how they spent that money. In 2005, the Astros spent their money on pitching. The team didn't have a great offense. But they had Roy Oswalt in his prime, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. Their fourth and fifth starters, Brandon Backe and a young Wandy Rodriguez, were decent and they had a light's out bullpen. They were first in the league in walks allowed, runs, hits and third in strikeouts. They had a team ERA+ of 120.

This year's team is worse than that team offensively and much worse on the mound, particularly in the rotation. A fading Oswalt was league average at best. Wandy Rodriguez had a great year, but the rest of their starters went 25-36 with 771 base runners allowed in 483 innings. Despite a fairly dependable bullpen, the team is next to last in hits allowed twelfth out of sixteen in homers allowed.

The defense is also a big difference. The 2005 team was first in the NL in defensive efficiency and second in fewest errors made. This year, the team is second from the bottom in defensive efficiency.

Everyone points to Berkman as having an off year. But his OPS is .900, hardly banal. The problem is that the Astros gave too much money to Kazuo Matsui and brought in Ivan Rodriguez. Ivan the Terrible did pretty well behind the plate, but his OBP was .280. Since he was traded to Texas, his replacement's OBP is .278. We won't even talk about poor J. R. Towles. The Astros also have stuck way too long with Geoff Blum.

Much like the situation with the Cubs, the General Manager has to take the fall for this team. McLane may have shelled out more than he ever has, but it has been on the wrong players. Cecil Cooper may or may not have been the wrong guy in the dugout, but McLane really needs to evaluate his front office and if he takes a hard look, Ed Wade will be following Cooper out the door.

P.S. I love that the Astros provided a nifty word play for a title.

Game Picks - Tuesday: September 22, 2009

Two games over .500 is better than one game. The much is true. 60% sounds better than 50%. But face it, that still isn't very good for a "baseball expert" to pick only 60%. The Royals have won eleven of thirteen and came back from behind twice when down six runs last night...against Boston no less. The Pirates were probably a stupid pick. But when they are just as bad as the Padres, what can you do? Wandy had a rare bad start. Maybe he was upset that his manager was fired. And finally, the Cubs' lousy pitcher was much better than the Brewers' lousy pitcher. That's the way it goes.

Tuesday's games look this way:

• The Phillies over the Marlins: This is a tough game to pick. Josh Johnson goes against Blanton. Both have been really good lately.
• The Dodgers over the Nationals: Kuroda versus Livan. Livan hasn't thrown a good game in a while.
• The Reds over the Pirates: Cueto versus Duke. How come Duke always gets the best pitcher on the other team? Is he like the designated pinata?
• The Tigers over the Indians: Jackson versus Laffey. How come every time the Fan hears Laffey's name, he hears Bertin Cummings singing: Laffey...haha ha ha haha...Laffey...
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Tallet hasn't had a good start in like forever. But the Orioles are starting a reliever.
• The Bay Rays over the Mariners: Got to like Niemann over Rowland-Smith.
• The Braves over the Mets: Jurrjens should get more fanfare than he does.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: The real question isn't whether Moyer will beat Sanchez. The real question is whether the Marlins will draw more than 5,000 fans combined for the two games. The secondary question is whether the weather will allow both games to be played.
• The Cardinals over the Astros: The firing of Cooper is Bazardo.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: Randy Wells needs to bounce back after a really bad last start.
• The Royals over the Red Sox: Go Greinke, go! This is a good opportunity since Byrd is starting for the Sox.
• The Twins over the White Sox: What a mess Chicago baseball has been this year.
• The Rockies over the Padres: De La Rosa over Mujica as the Rockies march toward the wild card.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Cain versus Abel...errr...Davis.
• Oakland over Texas: Cahill was really sharp last time out. McCarthy wasn't.
• The Yankees over the Angels: This is one of those games the Yankees are supposed to lose with Gaudin pitching. But that's when they win.

Yesterday: 6-4
Week: 14-11
Month: 148-126

Some Happy Thoughts

After writing that Milton Bradley post, this writer needs to have a little more fun and look on the brighter side of life. After all it is Monday and more cheer is needed to get the week started. This post will center on what has been fun to watch this year. The list below will be things that made the Fan happy during this baseball season. After all, this blog is about being a Fan. And from the Fan's perspective, the best thing about being one of those is having players to root for and follow. It's the fun side of baseball and why we keep coming back year after year.

So here goes:

Zack Greinke: Sure, Greinke is the standard bearer for mental struggles. But his problems of the past and the way the Royals responded to those problems make you root for a guy like that and a team that worked so hard to help him. His season has been tremendous fun and a big smile will occur when he is voted the American League Cy Young.

Scott Feldman: Thanks to Josh Borenstein, the Fan has latched onto Feldman and rooted for him every time he went to the mound. Watching him win 17 games (with an outside shot at 20) has been a really fun ride. Feldman is a bit of an everyman that we can all root for.

Derek Jeter: All of you know that Jeter is the Fan's favorite player. You can't hide from the truth. To see Jeter, at age 35, enjoy one of his finest seasons and have a great year in the field to boot (bad unintended pun there) has been gratifying. The Fan looks forward to that 3000th hit.

Mark Reynolds: To see a guy whiff over 200 times and still put up a .924 OPS has been a lot of fun. Never before has there been such a win/lose type of player. His 42 homers and .360 OBP sure are a mystery for a guy who strikes out 38% of his at bats.

Adam Dunn: Now here is a classy guy. He went to a basement-dwelling team but has had dignity in the situation and needs three more dingers to hit 40 for the seventh straight season. His .406 On Base Percentage and .957 OPS are among the league leaders. Dunn is a guy to root for and not just for the mammoth homers he hits.

Ryan Zimmerman: Dunn's teammate is having his third straight season where he has improved his batting average, OBP and OPS. His 64 extra base hits show that he has really arrived as a player. The Fan hopes he can get the four more ribbies to put 100 on his resume.

Joe Torre: This Fan feels that Torre has never gotten the respect he deserves for his time in New York. To see him succeed in Los Angeles has been very gratifying. Last year, the Dodgers weren't even supposed to compete and Torre led them to a first place finish. Torre was always given the rap that he doesn't like inexperienced players. That's all he's had in LA and has watched many of them blossom.

Ken Griffey, Jr.: Yeah, he's batting .219. But who cares. It was still fun to watch that picture perfect swing connect sixteen more times before he closes out his HOF career. Thanks, Griff. It's been great.

Chris Carpenter: Carpenter threw all of five games the last two years. Hurt all that time, we all forgot about him. But he is 16-4 with a 2.34 ERA. Who of us ever saw that coming? Every time he starts now is an event and that's what being a Fan is all about.

Adam Lind: It's always great to see a new star blossom and Lind has certainly blossomed in an otherwise desert that has been the Toronto Blue Jays. His season has to give his fans up in Toronto some measure of hope for the future. The guy is a stud.

Neftali Feliz: All of 21 years old. Fifteen games and 26.2 innings of relief have yielded only 11 hits and five walks while he has struck out 34 batters. What fun!

Daniel Bard: Admittedly, it's hard to root for anyone on the Red Sox, but this kid caught the Fan's attention in Spring Training and he hasn't disappointed. Yeah, he walks too many guys, but he's pitched 45.2 innings and has struck out 61. He throws 100 without even looking like he is trying. How fun is that?

Hanley Ramirez: Dan Uggla be darned, Hanley Ramirez has become the best all around player in the National League and the Fan got to watch him for three straight weeks while in Florida this summer. The guy is amazing and so much fun to watch.

Wandy Rodriguez: Anybody who follows the Daily Picks knows that the Fan has really latched onto this guy. He's short and he's skinny, but dang, he has been the Astros' best pitcher and he'll go toe to toe with any pitching stud in baseball.

Mariano Rivera: The Fan lives and dies by every Rivera cutter. It's hard to fathom that he never throws any other pitch and yet has converted 40 out of 42 save opportunities. At the age of 39 too. He has more class oozing out of his pores than any other player in baseball. Here's hoping that his mojo can deliver during the post season. The Fan would hate it if the Yankees were to lose because of a Rivera blown save. That would suck.

Evan Longoria: This guy captured our imagination the first time he got his Bay Rays' uniform last year. No sophomore swoon for this guy, not after 75 extra base hits and a .283/.363/.537 line.

Prince Fielder: 40 bombs, 130 ribbies, 100 walks, Fielder chalks one up for the big guys. The guy has fun and it shows. Heck, the big guy even has three triples. How much fun did those triples have to be to watch! All the while, he has improved his defense, making only seven errors after making seventeen last year. And of course, that walk off homer with that amusing scene at home plate just topped the whole thing off.

Milton Bradley - What Gives?

Well, it finally happened. The Cubs got tired of Milton Bradley and sent him home for the rest of the season. The suspension is probably without pay? The union will probably have to get involved with that. Apparently, Bradley said some negative things to the press about his time in Chicago. The Cubs called their decision: "Actions that were a detriment to the team." The whole thing just seems to be the final straw to what has been a long, unhealthy season for the Cubs and for Bradley. Certainly that has to be the case since a man has a right to say what's on his mind in this country, doesn't he?

Reed Johnson, Bradley's teammate, was quoted as saying that he couldn't understand how anyone could be unhappy playing in Chicago for great fans and a great organization. It's a good question. The Fan can add: And for good money. It seems that whatever chip Bradley has on his shoulder could be softened by the immense amount of money he makes performing his task. But that's now how it goes for Bradley. He's a, "me against the world," kind of guy and apparently, he hasn't grown out of it. He seems like the Carl Everett of today.

As the Fan has stated in this space before, when it seems that it is me against the world, some times the world may be right. Maybe Bradley got teased a lot as a kid with a board game company for a name. Who knows. But man, Milton, you are more fortunate than 99.9 percent of the people in the country to make the money you do playing this game that we all love. Shouldn't you get over it by now?

There are always two sides to a divorce and there has to be another side here to be fair to Bradley. After the Cubs made their decision, manager, Lou Pineilla, was quoted as stating that he supports the decision. The manager was also quoted as stating that he doesn't know what more he could have done to help Bradley." But come on. Pineilla probably chuckled after that interview and pumped his fist in the air in victory. Pineilla isn't exactly a teddy bear and that's probably part of the problem. The manager is prickly at the best of times and that intensity has been his salvation and his undoing during his long career as a player and a manager.

Of course, if Bradley had played better this year, a lot of his "sins" would have been more tolerated. But the Cubs have an out with this decision. The bad performance can be chocked up to Bradley's bad behavior instead of the real problem, which was that he was a bad fit for the Cubs in the first place and Hendry and his team made a terrible personnel decision. Hendry can be off the hook now since it's all Bradley's fault. Except that it isn't.

Ultimately, you do have to lay this at Milton Bradley's feet. He had a great opportunity to cash in on his successful run in Texas. He could have been a better teammate. He could have been more supportive of his team and more gracious in his struggles. He seems to be the kind of person that blames others for his problems and bites at every supposed slight. Sooner or later, you have to grow up and understand that fighting the world doesn't end up as a progressive strategy. Sooner or later, you have to enjoy simple things and find contentment where you can find it.

The Fan hopes that Milton Bradley can work it out as it's not too late. He doesn't want to end up like Carl Everett and spend the latter part of his career playing for Newark in the independent leagues. Who knows, maybe the Dodgers will take him. They already have Manny, Jeff Weaver and Vicente Padilla.

Game Picks - Monday: September 21, 2009

They say this happens when you get older, but September is just flying. Perhaps it is because the frozen tundra of northern Maine starts to ice over in October and there is a desire to hold on to September as long as possible. That's probably why three idiots tried to play golf on Saturday in a howling wind, no sun and the thermometer sitting at 45 degrees. Yeah, that's life around these parts. But it's supposed to hit 70 today. That's cheerful at least.

Much more cheerful than the meandering of the picks this week. Another day just above the .500 level brings out a bit of the blahs. That's four straight days of such mediocrity in a row (if you are keeping score). But did the Fan peg Zambrano yesterday or what? The Fan knew he would come alive for national television. The bum.

Monday has a fairly full slate of games, which is somewhat unusual. Let's see if we can get more than one game over even today:

• The Pirates over the Padres: We start with a head-scratcher. McCutchen (the pitching one) starts for Pittsburgh while LeBlanc (who doesn't throw shutouts despite his name) starts for the Padres. Flip a coin.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Now that Halladay isn't pitching, the Blue Jays can go ahead and score some runs.
• The Braves over the Mets: Logic dictates that Lowe would beat Misch. But logic happens so seldom lately.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: Gorzelanny versus Looper. Now there is an inspiring duo. Yeesh.
• The Astros over the Cardinals: Go Wandy, go!
• The Red Sox over the Royals: Man, do the Red Sox finish with a cushy schedule or what?
• The Twins over the White Sox: The Twins pretty much have to win them all at this point.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Ditto for the Giants.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: Thinking an old song for this one: "It's too late, baby...it's too late..."
• The Angels over the Yankees: Pettitte is listed, but the Fan thought he was supposed to skip a start?

Yesterday: 8-7 (9-6 in football too)
Week: 8-7
Month: 142-122

Game Picks - Sunday: September 20, 2009

For the first time in about twenty years, this picker slept in. Can't remember the last time the clock said it was ten o'clock when the eyes were first opened. And it seems that the extra sleep was worth about one win in the picking category as the week of so-so picking continues. But at least the extra win put this sleepy head in the black for a change.

The Giants lost big and not only was the score a disaster, but it was a disaster in the standings as it was a game swing with the winning Rockies. In the other race still alive, the Twins beat the Tigers' best pitcher and the Tigers are in a serious funk. They have the big time feel of the Mets two years ago. It's like they smell death and keep running but whatever direction they run, they get hit by a truck. The Twins have put all the pressure on the Tigers. The Twins have nothing to lose.

Sunday's games:

• The Angels over the Rangers: It will be sad to see the Angels finish the Rangers off. Feldman gave them a one day reprieve.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Only because it sure looks like Maine isn't yet ready to pitch.
• The Marlins over the Reds: Forgive the Fan, but he just can't pick Kip Wells to win.
• The Pirates over the Padres: {sigh} Ohlendorf didn't win yesterday despite pitching well. Maholm will win today though.
• The Braves over the Phillies: Despite facing Cliff Lee, Tommy Hanson has arrived.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: The Red Sox going into the post season on a roll is a scary thing.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Halladay's short little funk is over. Book it.
• The Brewers over the Astros: Gallardo's last start of the year as they will shut him down after to protect his arm. This sure is new territory for a baseball Fan.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Just because the Fan wants to see more Ozzie rants.
• The Twins over the Tigers: Let's see, the Tigers can't start Washburn because of a bum knee (that trade worked out really well) and Nate Robertson is starting despite a bum hip. Good luck.
• The A's over the Indians: Carmona walks five more and has yet another bad outing. So sad.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: The Dodgers behind Randy Wolf, beat the Giants 1-0, beating Lincecum and making the Cy Young even more confusing in the National League.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: Ubaldo Jiminez beat Lincecum. What makes you think he can't beat Haran?
• The Yankees over the Mariners: The Yankees win despite another Joba Rules game.
• The Cubs over the Cardinals: After munching his way through an inconsistent season, Zambrano pitches his heart out for national television.

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 45-38
Month: 134-115