The Fan tweets. Now there is something the Fan never would have predicted five years ago. Anyway, a couple of weeks ago, the Fan tweeted (stupid, isn't it?) that Facebook has become a new part of his life. But what on earth is the proper use of Facebook? The Fan just doesn't get it.
The Fan was an early pioneer of AOL and also IRC (a chatting system). In fact, the Fan was on AOL so early that the screen name didn't need any numbers on it and chatting meant 24 baud and dial up connections. At the time, those places made sense. You met people, you bonded with some, had "bashes" where you met some of them face to face. It was an interaction of sorts with people that ordinarily you would never meet. That made sense (at least in that point in the Fan's life). The Fan hasn't "chatted" in ages.
The Fan was also a bulletin board kind of guy. Remember those? Those made sense in a pioneering sort of way. Facebook seems to be an amalgam of all those things except the chatting isn't in real time nor as personal and there are lots of confusing things like surveys up the yin yang and a bunch of requests from old acquaintances for friendship. Well, okay, that's nice and all. But a lot of times, the Fan ends up approving friend requests with people he would just as soon forget, but has to approve them anyway to prevent being rude. A lot of people use it for business and contacts. Well, the Fan is in business, but doesn't see the point. Perhaps the Fan is just being obtuse.
The Fan's wife loves Facebook. Then again, she loved AOL and still goes there when she wants to browse the web. The Fan thinks that's silly but keeps his mouth shut. Perhaps she has a fondness for AOL because that's where she met and fell in love with her Fan. Anyway, she is on Facebook and she was disparaging the Fan's picture there. "It's a stupid picture," she says, "and it doesn't do you justice."
So, since the Fan loves his wife, he patiently sat for her as she took a new picture. The Fan dutifully posted the new picture and the wife smiled a lot at that. A few minutes after the picture was posted, the Fan got a "message on his wall." Whatever that wall is. It was from a girl the Fan went to high school with way too many years ago (the power of Facebook). Her words were something to the effect that she wondered how the Fan hadn't changed much and looked much the same as high school. Mind you, the Fan thinks she's nuts because that was 35 years ago. But the Fan has to admit he has aged fairly well. Must be the Sicilian heritage that makes up half of who the Fan is.
Now, the lady who posted the nice comment looks pretty darned good herself after all those years. The Fan was surprised she even remembered this old guy because the Fan was pretty much a recluse in high school and was seemingly invisible. The Fan moved away from there right after high school and has only been back twice since.
The Fan has a confession to make. The lady's comments flushed this old geezer like a peeper frog. The blood quickened and the heart fluttered and for a brief second, the Fan felt like a little bit of a stud. It passed quickly when the Fan went to the bathroom and remembered what he looked like. But aren't we funny? Isn't it silly how easily we are inflamed with such vane thoughts? Like Rudolph, we fly through the air shouting, "She said I'm cute. I'm cuuuute!" Silly people. It doesn't take much to get us going.
Once the Fan came back down to earth, he realized that his cherishes his wife and as long as she thinks this old guy is the be all and end all, then that's more than enough for life to be really, really good.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Andy Pettitte - What a Difference a Defense Makes
The Yankees showed little love to Andy Pettitte this off-season. He was given a "take-it-or-leave-it" offer and the notion was that the Yankees had plenty of options and if you still want to pitch in New York, here is what we'll pay you. Many wrote (including this writer) that the Yankees were correct in this stance as Pettitte had become a league average pitcher and wasn't worth big money any more. Well, now here he is, after a brilliant performance against the Orioles, at 12-8 and is (behind Sabathia) the second best starter in the Yankees rotation. So what is different this year than last, when he finished at 14-14 with a 4.54 ERA? The answer is: Not much of anything really.
Pettitte has always been a pitcher who surrendered a fair amount of base runners. He has had only two years in his career where he gave up less hits than innings pitched. One of those years was with Houston in the National League. The Fan will leave that statement just where it is and not swirl up a bunch of dust. Suffice it to say that Pettitte has had a WHIP of under 1.3 three times in his long career, two of those were with Houston. He has finished above 1.4 eight times and his career WHIP is 1.32. So Pettitte has always had a lot of people on base.
But the guy has a .630 lifetime winning percentage! He just knows how to win. He's savvy and a big-game pitcher and all those other cliches you want to throw around. But the best thing about Pettitte has always been that he played for winning teams that scored a ton of runs.
So again, why did he end up with a 4.54 ERA last year with a 14-14 record and why is he so much better this year at 12-8 with a 4.04 ERA? The answer is partly luck and partly better defense around him. Let's compare some stats last year and this.
Last year, Pettitte had a WHIP of 1.412. This year is 1.400 (before Monday's one-hitter). Last year, Pettitte gave up 10.3 hits per nine innings. This year it's 9.3. Aha! There's the one difference. Let's keep going. His walks per nine innings are up this year from last year and his career average. His strikeouts per nine are exactly the same as last year and slightly higher than his career average. His homers per nine innings is up from last year (let's call that the Yankee Stadium Effect).
So Pettitte is pretty much the same pitcher he was a year ago except for the hits per nine innings. That's where BABIP comes into play. BABIP measures the batting average of balls hit in play. Last year, Pettitte's BABIP was around .340. This year, it's just over the league average and a little over .300. That's a huge difference. So part of that means that Pettitte has been luckier this year than last and that last year, he was unlucky. The other part of the equation is that the Yankees are significantly better in the field this year than they were last year when they were horrid.
Pettitte's BABIP chart on FanGraphs is hugely illuminating. His first five years coincided with the Yankee glory years and his BABIP is remarkably consistent at just over the league average. Then in 2001, 2002 and 2003, his BABIP jumps, which seems to reflect the Yankees lack of defense after 2000 when they started signing aging sluggers who could still bop, but were anchors in the field. Then Pettitte goes to Houston for a couple of years and those years, his BABIP went way below league average. His third year in Houston, his BABIP again skyrockets above league average and his record and ERA reflect the damage in that 2007 season. The Fan has already told you about last year and so far this year.
So basically, after you break it all down, Pettitte is the same steady pitcher he's always been. He's not spectacular. But he is predictable and reliable and he keeps his team in the game. Last year was a year with bad fielding and bad luck and both contributed to making him just an average pitcher. This year, his luck is better and so are his fielders and his record and ERA reflect that too.
This year, Pettitte is throwing less cutters, curves and change ups. He is throwing more sliders and two-seam fastballs but all in all, he is the same pitcher he's always been. And what he's always been seems to be a slightly above league average pitcher that has been remarkably consistent through the years and it's a darn good thing the Yankees got him back. The telling thing about Pettitte is that Baseball Prospectus charts that Pettitte should have 46 more losses in his career based on the kind of pitcher he is. But the chart also shows the same amount of wins. And 227 wins is a lot of wins.
Pettitte has always been a pitcher who surrendered a fair amount of base runners. He has had only two years in his career where he gave up less hits than innings pitched. One of those years was with Houston in the National League. The Fan will leave that statement just where it is and not swirl up a bunch of dust. Suffice it to say that Pettitte has had a WHIP of under 1.3 three times in his long career, two of those were with Houston. He has finished above 1.4 eight times and his career WHIP is 1.32. So Pettitte has always had a lot of people on base.
But the guy has a .630 lifetime winning percentage! He just knows how to win. He's savvy and a big-game pitcher and all those other cliches you want to throw around. But the best thing about Pettitte has always been that he played for winning teams that scored a ton of runs.
So again, why did he end up with a 4.54 ERA last year with a 14-14 record and why is he so much better this year at 12-8 with a 4.04 ERA? The answer is partly luck and partly better defense around him. Let's compare some stats last year and this.
Last year, Pettitte had a WHIP of 1.412. This year is 1.400 (before Monday's one-hitter). Last year, Pettitte gave up 10.3 hits per nine innings. This year it's 9.3. Aha! There's the one difference. Let's keep going. His walks per nine innings are up this year from last year and his career average. His strikeouts per nine are exactly the same as last year and slightly higher than his career average. His homers per nine innings is up from last year (let's call that the Yankee Stadium Effect).
So Pettitte is pretty much the same pitcher he was a year ago except for the hits per nine innings. That's where BABIP comes into play. BABIP measures the batting average of balls hit in play. Last year, Pettitte's BABIP was around .340. This year, it's just over the league average and a little over .300. That's a huge difference. So part of that means that Pettitte has been luckier this year than last and that last year, he was unlucky. The other part of the equation is that the Yankees are significantly better in the field this year than they were last year when they were horrid.
Pettitte's BABIP chart on FanGraphs is hugely illuminating. His first five years coincided with the Yankee glory years and his BABIP is remarkably consistent at just over the league average. Then in 2001, 2002 and 2003, his BABIP jumps, which seems to reflect the Yankees lack of defense after 2000 when they started signing aging sluggers who could still bop, but were anchors in the field. Then Pettitte goes to Houston for a couple of years and those years, his BABIP went way below league average. His third year in Houston, his BABIP again skyrockets above league average and his record and ERA reflect the damage in that 2007 season. The Fan has already told you about last year and so far this year.
So basically, after you break it all down, Pettitte is the same steady pitcher he's always been. He's not spectacular. But he is predictable and reliable and he keeps his team in the game. Last year was a year with bad fielding and bad luck and both contributed to making him just an average pitcher. This year, his luck is better and so are his fielders and his record and ERA reflect that too.
This year, Pettitte is throwing less cutters, curves and change ups. He is throwing more sliders and two-seam fastballs but all in all, he is the same pitcher he's always been. And what he's always been seems to be a slightly above league average pitcher that has been remarkably consistent through the years and it's a darn good thing the Yankees got him back. The telling thing about Pettitte is that Baseball Prospectus charts that Pettitte should have 46 more losses in his career based on the kind of pitcher he is. But the chart also shows the same amount of wins. And 227 wins is a lot of wins.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Joba Rules Redux - Why Bother?
Look, we can all understand the Yankees trying to protect a talent like Joba Chamberlain, but what in the world can we make of the new Joba Rules where he starts a game, goes three innings and pitches just 35 pitches? Besides taxing the bullpen, what in the world is the worth of that?
In a game where Chamberlain finally managed not to walk half of the batters he faced, Chamberlain was efficient for a change and averaged only 12 pitches an inning. He had one inning where the White Sox bunched a few hits and scored a run, but other than that, his pitches were not stressful. Why wouldn't you at least let him go five innings?
The thing about this is that they are trying to save his arm and limp him along to the playoffs. But will he be able to stretch out those playoff starts for very long if you are regressing him to three innings per start?
Nothing about the Joba Rules seems to make sense. John Kruk on Baseball Tonight compared Chamberlain to Felix Hernandez of the Mariners. Both pitchers are the same age and have the same amount of service time, but King Felix has pitched five times the amount of innings than Chamberlain has. Kruk is fed up with the Yankees babying of Joba.
While Kruk is an old-school guy, his frustration is warranted. The Yankees fortunately have the luxury of botching this whole thing as they have a big lead in the AL East. But sooner or later, they have to start making sense of what they are doing with Chamberlain.
In a game where Chamberlain finally managed not to walk half of the batters he faced, Chamberlain was efficient for a change and averaged only 12 pitches an inning. He had one inning where the White Sox bunched a few hits and scored a run, but other than that, his pitches were not stressful. Why wouldn't you at least let him go five innings?
The thing about this is that they are trying to save his arm and limp him along to the playoffs. But will he be able to stretch out those playoff starts for very long if you are regressing him to three innings per start?
Nothing about the Joba Rules seems to make sense. John Kruk on Baseball Tonight compared Chamberlain to Felix Hernandez of the Mariners. Both pitchers are the same age and have the same amount of service time, but King Felix has pitched five times the amount of innings than Chamberlain has. Kruk is fed up with the Yankees babying of Joba.
While Kruk is an old-school guy, his frustration is warranted. The Yankees fortunately have the luxury of botching this whole thing as they have a big lead in the AL East. But sooner or later, they have to start making sense of what they are doing with Chamberlain.
Zack Greinke - Cy Young Leader
Rob Neyer wrote a piece last week about the Cy Young award and how most voters for that award will not register a vote for a guy who is not among the league leaders in wins. He is right and many times a vote will be case for all the wrong reasons such as the win/loss record much like the MVP is almost always based on the homer/RBI combination. Some day, maybe, these awards will come to the modern age and stats such as WARP, PitchF/X and other factors will contribute to the awards. Zack Greinke might be having the type of season that will tip the scales. But that's a big, "might."
The way the season is shaping up so far, if the trends continue, C. C. Sabathia would probably win the most votes for Cy Young, especially with the recent struggles of Beckett and Halladay. And Sabathia has been worth every penny the Yankees paid for the guy. He hasn't often been spectacular, but he is a horse that goes out there every fifth day and pitches deep into the game and gives the Yankees a chance to win. There is no overstating his value to the Yankees' pitching staff and what his starts have meant to his team. But he isn't the right choice for Cy Young.
As it stands now, Zack Greinke should win the award. His problem is that he pitches for the Royals, the worst team in baseball. And unlike the year that Steve Carlton had with the Phillies when Carlton had a gaudy record despite his team coming in last place, Greinke figures at best to finish with a record around 15-10. Not especially pretty for a Cy Young winner. But in this Fan's figuring, the best pitcher...check that...the best starting pitcher in baseball should win the award regardless of record (no closer or other reliever with ninety innings or less should ever win the award).
And Greinke has clearly been the league's best pitcher. He leads the league in ERA, ERA+ and WHIP. He has a K/9 of 9.6 and a K/BB ratio of 5.05 to 1. Those are sick numbers by any standard. He also has the best homer per nine innings rate of 0.5. So he keeps the ball in the yard, he strikes out almost 10 per nine innings, while only walking 1.9. He allows less than a hit an inning. And he averages a little over seven innings a start. If the season ended right now, who would be better?
And what a season it could be if Greinke played for a decent team. He has six games started this year when he did not get a decision. The Royals lost every one of them. In those six games where he didn't get a decision, he gave up eleven runs, less than two per game. In his eight losses, he has given up 26 earned runs or a little over three a game. Most of those would have been wins on any other team. In fact, in his 27 starts, he has only given up four or more earned runs four times. So with little stretch of imagination, he easily could be 18-4 instead of 13-8.
The most telling statistic for Greinke is that in his 27 starts, his team has scored three or less runs seventeen times and he is still 13-8. Baseball Prospectus figures that under normal conditions, Greinke would finish with a 22-9 season. That's a Cy Young season, no?
The way the season is shaping up so far, if the trends continue, C. C. Sabathia would probably win the most votes for Cy Young, especially with the recent struggles of Beckett and Halladay. And Sabathia has been worth every penny the Yankees paid for the guy. He hasn't often been spectacular, but he is a horse that goes out there every fifth day and pitches deep into the game and gives the Yankees a chance to win. There is no overstating his value to the Yankees' pitching staff and what his starts have meant to his team. But he isn't the right choice for Cy Young.
As it stands now, Zack Greinke should win the award. His problem is that he pitches for the Royals, the worst team in baseball. And unlike the year that Steve Carlton had with the Phillies when Carlton had a gaudy record despite his team coming in last place, Greinke figures at best to finish with a record around 15-10. Not especially pretty for a Cy Young winner. But in this Fan's figuring, the best pitcher...check that...the best starting pitcher in baseball should win the award regardless of record (no closer or other reliever with ninety innings or less should ever win the award).
And Greinke has clearly been the league's best pitcher. He leads the league in ERA, ERA+ and WHIP. He has a K/9 of 9.6 and a K/BB ratio of 5.05 to 1. Those are sick numbers by any standard. He also has the best homer per nine innings rate of 0.5. So he keeps the ball in the yard, he strikes out almost 10 per nine innings, while only walking 1.9. He allows less than a hit an inning. And he averages a little over seven innings a start. If the season ended right now, who would be better?
And what a season it could be if Greinke played for a decent team. He has six games started this year when he did not get a decision. The Royals lost every one of them. In those six games where he didn't get a decision, he gave up eleven runs, less than two per game. In his eight losses, he has given up 26 earned runs or a little over three a game. Most of those would have been wins on any other team. In fact, in his 27 starts, he has only given up four or more earned runs four times. So with little stretch of imagination, he easily could be 18-4 instead of 13-8.
The most telling statistic for Greinke is that in his 27 starts, his team has scored three or less runs seventeen times and he is still 13-8. Baseball Prospectus figures that under normal conditions, Greinke would finish with a 22-9 season. That's a Cy Young season, no?
Game Picks - Monday: August 31, 2009
This picker gave himself a Nyquil coma last night and slept in. There were a few sneezes so it seemed justified. But really, a good night sleep was needed badly and as such, this picker went to bed at 9:30. Wow! Haven't been to bed that early since Batman was a television show. As such, with the Nyquil still creating a bit of a mind fog, it doesn't seem that bad that the picks yesterday were again below par. The only thing cutting through the fog is that the Yankees won despite a really bizarre and stupid use of Joba Chamberlain and another masterful performance by Zack Greinke. More on those in a few minutes. But for now, let's just get to the picks for Monday:
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 7-8
Month: 197-188
- The Bay Rays over the Tigers: The Young Bay Rays hitters are going to jump all over Washburn.
- The Reds over the Pirates: Is the Fan really going to pick the Reds when Kip Wells is the starter? He has no choice.
- The Yankees over the Orioles: Did anyone really think Andy Pettitte was going to be the Yankees second best starter when the season started?
- The Pirates over the Reds: The second game a day/night double header. Maholm should win this one.
- The Marlins over the Braves: Josh Johnson should beat Kawakami.
- The Astros over the Cubs: Oswalt out duels Harden.
- The Rangers over the Blue Jays: Young Holland needs to keep the ball rolling for the Rangers and their fading wild card chances.
- The White Sox over the Twins: The White Sox got their butts kicked by the Yankees and will take it out on the Twins.
- The Nationals over the Padres: This picker has to pick Livan to win. It just can't be any other way.
- The Royals over the Athletics: Hochever pitches a good game.
- The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Wolf over Davis. Is Manny going to get going soon?
- The Mariners over the Angels: French fries Saunders.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 7-8
Month: 197-188
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Game Picks - Sunday: August 30, 2009
Well, it wasn't pretty, but at least the night ended on the plus side of things. Not enough to save the week, but a plus record for the month has been all but gained. Zito was great and Marquis was not. The Marlins are folding like a lawn chair thanks to their bullpen. They are winning the game and bring in Luis Ayala? That was a good idea? The Braves buried Lee, giving the pitcher his first NL loss. Should have seen that coming. Buckholz and Romero were both great, but the wrong team won. Weaver was great for the Angels but the bullpen blew up the game. And the Royals were a stupid pick.
Two more days of August and then we are on the down hill slide. What will Sunday bring?
Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 39-43
Month: 190-180
Two more days of August and then we are on the down hill slide. What will Sunday bring?
- The Yankees over the White Sox: Don't blame Guillen for being unhappy when he has to pitch Freddie Garcia.
- The Tigers over the Bay Rays: Good match up of Verlander versus Niemann. Verlander should take the day.
- The Reds over the Dodgers: The Reds have been pretty hot lately and Arroyo is due for a win.
- The Padres over the Marlins: Latos and the Padres will make the Marlins look back on this weekend and sulk.
- The Indians over the Orioles: Let's go with Masterson over Matusz.
- The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Halladay is pitching against...are you ready? Paul Byrd.
- The Pirates over the Brewers: Ohlendorf! hahaha! The guy has been amazing.
- The Rangers over the Twins: Millwood versus Baker. Baker has been pitching well. Millwood so-so. But the Rangers should win.
- The Cardinals over the Nationals: Not to Mock the Nationals, but Wainwright will have an easy day.
- The Cubs over the Mets: When was the last time Zambrano pitched a good game? It's been a while.
- The Angels over the Athletics: Like Anderson and the Athletics, but couldn't pull the trigger on picking an upset here.
- The Giants over the Rockies: Cain is the third good pitcher in a row the Giants have thrown at the Rockies and it should be enough.
- The Diamondbacks over the Astros: How come Wandy always gets the tough guys? Today it's Haran.
- The Royals over the Mariners: Greinke needs wins to get up there for Cy Young.
- The Braves over the Phillies: Just like Jurrjens over Blanton. That's all.
Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 39-43
Month: 190-180
The White Sox Finally Hit the Wall
Ozzie Guillen says he's embarrassed. He says his team should be embarrassed after making more errors (3) Saturday against the Yankees than they had hits (1). The White Sox have now lost six of their last seven, most of which against the power of the AL East. It looks like this aging team has hit a wall that they can't climb over.
The White Sox have three fundamental problems. First and foremost, they have committed 36 starts to the likes off Jose Contreras, Bartolo Colon, Freddie Garcia and Carlos Torres. Between the four of them, they sound like the latin version of a fantasy camp. The second problem is fielding where they are next to last in the American League in fielding percentage. Lastly, despite some guys who can go deep, they are tenth in the fourteen team American League in OPS. For most of the year, they haven't had a centerfielder that can hit. And they have a second baseman and shortstop with OPS+ stats of 78 and 86 respectively. Add those three things up and you have a team that can make Guillen pretty feisty.
Let's start with those 36 starts. Contreras, Colon, Garcia and Torres are a combined 8-20 with 285 base runners allowed in 193 and 2/3 innings. That works out to a WHIP of 1.47. Let's say that if those starts had come at an even .500, that would make up six games in the standings and it would be the White Sox on top of the division and not the Tigers.
For a while, Scott Podsednik gave the team a spark but he has tailed off and now his OPS+ is under 100 and a .347 OBP isn't that hot for a lead off guy. Pods is 33 now and that is part of the equation with this team. Pierzynski is 33, Dye is 35, Konerko is 33 and Thome is 38. That's five out of the nine guys in the line up that are past their prime. And those are the only five that can at least hit a little. The problem with older guys is that they will get you if you make a mistake because they have seen a thousand of them in their careers, but they can be over matched too at this stage in their careers. Thome is batting .256, Dye is at .264. In fairness, Podsednik is the only one of the five below league average in OPS+. Pierzynski is having one of his best offensive years. But when faced with tough pitching, they are past the point in their careers when they are going to be able to hang in there.
The White Sox lead the American League in errors with 100. They are tied for seventh in defensive efficiency and they are third from the bottom in throwing base stealers out. When you are that leaky on defense, tenth in the league in OPS and have committed 36 starts to guys who have had no business starting, that spells disappointment and has obviously led to another Guillen press harangue.
To top it all off, the White Sox lead the league in names that are hard to spell. There's Linebrink, Podsednik, Pierzynski, Poreda, Alexei Ramirez, Jayson Nix, Dewayne Wise, Lillibridge, Buehrle and even a short appearance by a Jhonny Nunez. Man, that poor clubhouse guy in charge of uniforms.
What is currently happening to the White Sox has been expected here in the FanDome for quite some time. But there is no joy in being right. There is only a sad knowledge that the window of opportunities for these guys is closing rapidly and it doesn't seem clear where the White Sox will go from here.
The White Sox have three fundamental problems. First and foremost, they have committed 36 starts to the likes off Jose Contreras, Bartolo Colon, Freddie Garcia and Carlos Torres. Between the four of them, they sound like the latin version of a fantasy camp. The second problem is fielding where they are next to last in the American League in fielding percentage. Lastly, despite some guys who can go deep, they are tenth in the fourteen team American League in OPS. For most of the year, they haven't had a centerfielder that can hit. And they have a second baseman and shortstop with OPS+ stats of 78 and 86 respectively. Add those three things up and you have a team that can make Guillen pretty feisty.
Let's start with those 36 starts. Contreras, Colon, Garcia and Torres are a combined 8-20 with 285 base runners allowed in 193 and 2/3 innings. That works out to a WHIP of 1.47. Let's say that if those starts had come at an even .500, that would make up six games in the standings and it would be the White Sox on top of the division and not the Tigers.
For a while, Scott Podsednik gave the team a spark but he has tailed off and now his OPS+ is under 100 and a .347 OBP isn't that hot for a lead off guy. Pods is 33 now and that is part of the equation with this team. Pierzynski is 33, Dye is 35, Konerko is 33 and Thome is 38. That's five out of the nine guys in the line up that are past their prime. And those are the only five that can at least hit a little. The problem with older guys is that they will get you if you make a mistake because they have seen a thousand of them in their careers, but they can be over matched too at this stage in their careers. Thome is batting .256, Dye is at .264. In fairness, Podsednik is the only one of the five below league average in OPS+. Pierzynski is having one of his best offensive years. But when faced with tough pitching, they are past the point in their careers when they are going to be able to hang in there.
The White Sox lead the American League in errors with 100. They are tied for seventh in defensive efficiency and they are third from the bottom in throwing base stealers out. When you are that leaky on defense, tenth in the league in OPS and have committed 36 starts to guys who have had no business starting, that spells disappointment and has obviously led to another Guillen press harangue.
To top it all off, the White Sox lead the league in names that are hard to spell. There's Linebrink, Podsednik, Pierzynski, Poreda, Alexei Ramirez, Jayson Nix, Dewayne Wise, Lillibridge, Buehrle and even a short appearance by a Jhonny Nunez. Man, that poor clubhouse guy in charge of uniforms.
What is currently happening to the White Sox has been expected here in the FanDome for quite some time. But there is no joy in being right. There is only a sad knowledge that the window of opportunities for these guys is closing rapidly and it doesn't seem clear where the White Sox will go from here.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Game Picks - Saturday: August 29, 2009
This picker got smoked. First, the Phillies have a new formula for winning: Start Pedro against the other team's stud. Have it rain after a couple of innings knocking both Pedro and the stud out of the game. Bring in Moyer after the rain and he wins against bad bullpens. That's twice they have done that! Elsewhere, both Florida teams in the wild card hunt lost. That doesn't help their chances. Homer Bailey pitched the game of his life against the Dodgers. The Brewers crushed the Pirates' best pitcher. The Twins' rookie pitcher out dueled the Rangers rookie. The Nationals were just a stupid pick, though they played tough until Pujols ended it with a walk off in the tenth. Bannister was a stupid pick and finally, Lincecum won the rematch against Jiminez.
Add it all up and it was a stinker of a night for picks. Let's hope today's picks are better. The month only has two days left and a series of bad days leave the monthly total pretty close to being even. Ugh!
Have a good weekend.
Yesterday: 6-9
Week: 31-36 (Brutal!)
Month: 182-173
Add it all up and it was a stinker of a night for picks. Let's hope today's picks are better. The month only has two days left and a series of bad days leave the monthly total pretty close to being even. Ugh!
- The Yankees over the White Sox: The Pale Hose throw their hands up and start Contreras which offsets the Yankees starting Mitre, or Liquid Mitregen as he is called in the FanDome.
- The Dodgers over the Reds: Because the Fan really wants Haeger to succeed. Knuckleballers rule!
- The Mets over the Cubs: Two clubs thought to be contenders find themselves with an empty autumn.
- The Bay Rays over the Tigers: Robertson? Nate Robertson is pitching? Taking David Price instead.
- The Marlins over the Padres: Nolasco should beat LaBlanc.
- The Phillies over the Braves: Good match up of Lee versus Lowe. Maybe it will rain again.
- The Brewers over the Pirates: Gallardo should win despite another four or five walks allowed.
- Cleveland over Baltimore: Going with Sowers over Tillman, though either is a crap shoot.
- The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Romero shoots down Buckholz.
- The Rangers over the Twins: Feldman versus Pavano? The Fan better not get Pavanoed again.
- The Cardinals over the Nationals: Last night was the Nats' best chance for a win in this series and they didn't get it done. Enjoy the sweep.
- The Diamondbacks over the Astros: Garland should be better than Norris.
- The Rockies over the Giants: Marquis! Zito has been good lately, but got to go with Marquis.
- The Angels over the Athletics: Want to pick the A's, but it would be stupid.
- The Royals over the Mariners: Before you think this picker is crazy, Ian Snell is pitching for the Mariners.
Have a good weekend.
Yesterday: 6-9
Week: 31-36 (Brutal!)
Month: 182-173
Joba Rules Are Meant to Be Broken
"Joba Rules" have become an oxymoron. In a story found on ESPN.com today, it was explained that Chamberlain will go back to his regular starts but be pulled earlier (as if he was pitching far into each game as it was). With his 2009 penchant for running up early pitch counts, what are they going to do now, pull him in the fourth inning after 80 pitches?
First, they were going to send him to the bullpen. Then they decided to keep him as a starter but have him miss some starts to save his innings. Now they have flipped it again in a never-ending game of, "how do we limit his innings without the temptation of exploiting his talent."
The trouble is that Joba hasn't been that great. Sure, there are flashes of what we all expect him to be. But he walks so many darn batters, he is always pitching in trouble and those become what Mike Maddux of the Rangers calls, "stress pitches." According to Maddux, stress pitches are harder on the arm than when pitching with nobody on base. If Joba could focus more on throwing strikes, then he would have less stress pitches and there would be much less concern for his arm.
The stories all seem to focus on how many innings the Yankees would like to limit Joba Chamberlain to this year. It is unknown whether there is an either/or scenario where a limit exists for both innings and pitches. If there is not a focus on pitches thrown, there should be because Chamberlain has thrown a ton of pitches in his weekly five or six innings of work. And again, with his penchant for walking batters and pitching deep into counts, those pitches thrown should be a concern more than the innings are. Things would be a lot easier for the Yankees if Mike Maddux was their pitching coach instead of him doing his great job in Texas for the Rangers. He seems to have a better grasp on how to handle these things.
And so it goes. Another week, a new set of Joba Rules. This Fan would wish that Joba ruled when he pitched a whole lot more often than he has. What he has been doing won't help much in the playoffs.
First, they were going to send him to the bullpen. Then they decided to keep him as a starter but have him miss some starts to save his innings. Now they have flipped it again in a never-ending game of, "how do we limit his innings without the temptation of exploiting his talent."
The trouble is that Joba hasn't been that great. Sure, there are flashes of what we all expect him to be. But he walks so many darn batters, he is always pitching in trouble and those become what Mike Maddux of the Rangers calls, "stress pitches." According to Maddux, stress pitches are harder on the arm than when pitching with nobody on base. If Joba could focus more on throwing strikes, then he would have less stress pitches and there would be much less concern for his arm.
The stories all seem to focus on how many innings the Yankees would like to limit Joba Chamberlain to this year. It is unknown whether there is an either/or scenario where a limit exists for both innings and pitches. If there is not a focus on pitches thrown, there should be because Chamberlain has thrown a ton of pitches in his weekly five or six innings of work. And again, with his penchant for walking batters and pitching deep into counts, those pitches thrown should be a concern more than the innings are. Things would be a lot easier for the Yankees if Mike Maddux was their pitching coach instead of him doing his great job in Texas for the Rangers. He seems to have a better grasp on how to handle these things.
And so it goes. Another week, a new set of Joba Rules. This Fan would wish that Joba ruled when he pitched a whole lot more often than he has. What he has been doing won't help much in the playoffs.
What Are the Angels Getting in Kazmir?
The Bay Rays, only three and a half games off the pace in the wild card, traded franchise pitcher, Scott Kazmir to the Angels for two prospects and a player to be named later. Manager Joe Madden hinted that he really liked the player not named so that part of the deal must already be worked out. The questions here are: What are the Angels getting in Kazmir and was it worth two good prospects? And: Does trading Kazmir hurt the Rays' chances in their wild card hunt?
What the Angels are getting isn't exactly clear. Kazmir hasn't had a good year and has spent time on the disabled list. But he does have really good career numbers and he has beaten both the Yankees and the Red Sox twice apiece this year. The Angels are sure to face one of those two teams in the playoffs.
But back to Kazmir's year this year. His strikeouts per nine innings statistic is the lowest of his career. His career average is 9.43 but this year, it's only 7.38. His strikeout to walk ratio is also the second worst of his career. He is still walking over four batters per nine innings as he has his whole career. For the first time in his career, Kazmir has given up more hits than innings pitched. The Fan checked the BABIP to see if that was simply a case of bad luck, but he's only been slightly unlucky and as such, his adjusted ERA is still over 5.80. All of these things seem to indicate that he isn't the pitcher--at least for this year--that he has been in the past.
There are three bright spots for the Angels concerning Kazmir (not including the Yankees/Red Sox record). First, he is relatively cheap with a $6 million salary this year, $10 million next year and $12 million the year after that. Secondly, believe it or not, he is only twenty-five years old! It seems like he has been around forever. The Fan didn't realize that he started as a nineteen year old. Lastly, the Angels can't do much worse than the starters they have already been using. Their starters are 24th in the majors in ERA at 4.96. So Kazmir (especially if he pitches like his last six starts) is going to be an upgrade.
The Bay Rays lose a weapon as they have six games remaining against each of the Red Sox and the Yankees. If a prospect is called up to take Kazmir's place in the rotation, those two clubs enjoy feasting on those types of pitchers. Plus, they lose one of the faces of their organization. Six years in that market has endeared him to the fans there and provided a bit of continuity throughout. On the plus side, they free up some salary that can help them keep some of the good young players they have. The team also has quite a few good pitching prospects and received another one from the Angels in the deal.
Kazmir was drafted by the Mets right out of high school, but in (retrospectively of course) one of the worst trades in history, sent him to the Bay Rays for Victor Zambrano. Zambrano went 10-14 for the Mets and is now out of baseball.
What the Angels are getting isn't exactly clear. Kazmir hasn't had a good year and has spent time on the disabled list. But he does have really good career numbers and he has beaten both the Yankees and the Red Sox twice apiece this year. The Angels are sure to face one of those two teams in the playoffs.
But back to Kazmir's year this year. His strikeouts per nine innings statistic is the lowest of his career. His career average is 9.43 but this year, it's only 7.38. His strikeout to walk ratio is also the second worst of his career. He is still walking over four batters per nine innings as he has his whole career. For the first time in his career, Kazmir has given up more hits than innings pitched. The Fan checked the BABIP to see if that was simply a case of bad luck, but he's only been slightly unlucky and as such, his adjusted ERA is still over 5.80. All of these things seem to indicate that he isn't the pitcher--at least for this year--that he has been in the past.
There are three bright spots for the Angels concerning Kazmir (not including the Yankees/Red Sox record). First, he is relatively cheap with a $6 million salary this year, $10 million next year and $12 million the year after that. Secondly, believe it or not, he is only twenty-five years old! It seems like he has been around forever. The Fan didn't realize that he started as a nineteen year old. Lastly, the Angels can't do much worse than the starters they have already been using. Their starters are 24th in the majors in ERA at 4.96. So Kazmir (especially if he pitches like his last six starts) is going to be an upgrade.
The Bay Rays lose a weapon as they have six games remaining against each of the Red Sox and the Yankees. If a prospect is called up to take Kazmir's place in the rotation, those two clubs enjoy feasting on those types of pitchers. Plus, they lose one of the faces of their organization. Six years in that market has endeared him to the fans there and provided a bit of continuity throughout. On the plus side, they free up some salary that can help them keep some of the good young players they have. The team also has quite a few good pitching prospects and received another one from the Angels in the deal.
Kazmir was drafted by the Mets right out of high school, but in (retrospectively of course) one of the worst trades in history, sent him to the Bay Rays for Victor Zambrano. Zambrano went 10-14 for the Mets and is now out of baseball.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Game Picks - Friday: August 28, 2009
Slept in this morning for the first time in quite a while. Needed the sleep badly. But after looking at last night's game results, it still feels like a hangover. After last night, this picker is now in the red for the week and the monthly total is getting closer to .500.
The funny thing is, well at least funny to this writer, the rating on BallHype.com went up because the five games that did come in correctly were mostly upsets. How stupid is that?
Today's picks:
Yesterday: 5-8
Week: 25-27
Month: 176-164
The funny thing is, well at least funny to this writer, the rating on BallHype.com went up because the five games that did come in correctly were mostly upsets. How stupid is that?
Today's picks:
- The Cubs over the Mets: The Mets are starting a prospect and those kinds of picks never seem to be good ideas.
- The Braves over the Phillies: The Phillies have won both of Pedro's starts, but they run up against Hanson tonight.
- The Indians over the Orioles: Surprising how closely matched these two teams are. Probably not what Mark Shapiro was looking for, eh?
- The Yankees over the White Sox: Sabathia has been great lately.
- The Bay Rays over the Tigers: Good match up of Garza versus Porcello. Like the Bay Rays talent better than Detroits'.
- The Marlins over the Padres: The Marlins are hanging tough in the wild card race. They need the wins.
- The Dodgers over the Reds: Billingsley versus Homer Bailey in a good match up of young guns.
- The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Beckett has been a superman after a Red Sox loss.
- The Pirates over the Brewers: Zach Duke has been one of the better pitchers in baseball this year but gets no wins because of the Pirates offense. Perhaps he'll get a win tonight.
- The Rangers over the Twins: Two rookie starting pitchers. Hunter has been the better of the two.
- The Nationals over the Cardinals: The Nats' best pitcher (Lannon) versus Smoltz. This game reeks of an upset.
- The Diamondbacks over the Astros: Scherzer versus some kid named Bazardo. Bazardo? hehe
- The Angels over the Athletics: Surely Tomko can't have two good games in a row. Please don't call me Shirley.
- The Royals over the Mariners: Go Bannister, Go!
- The Rockies over the Giants: A rematch of Jiminez versus Lincecum. Jiminez won last time.
Yesterday: 5-8
Week: 25-27
Month: 176-164
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Throwing Strikes - Part One
The major league average for walks per nine innings sits at 3.5, the highest it has been since the year 2000. And in this (supposedly) post-steroid era, that's hard to figure. The home run rate per nine innings is up slightly from last year and the year before, but not nearly as high as the Helicon days of 1999 and 2000. So why not throw more strikes? Why do some pitchers and some teams get it and others don't? When everyone is concentrating on OBP these days, shouldn't pitchers be concentrating on not allowing that to happen?
Some teams do get it. The Twins and the Cardinals focus on throwing strikes. And, as is easy to see, the Cardinals seem to throw more effective strikes than the Twins. But the Twins have always concentrated on limiting walks and they are very good at doing so. The Cardinals are the same way. The two teams are one/two in being the stingiest teams in baseball on giving a free pass. The Cardinals average of 2.98 per nine innings is more than a full walk a game less than the Mets who are the worst in this category with over four walks per nine innings.
The top five teams at limiting walks:
The five worst:
The top five are all pretty darn good teams. Four of the five worst are bad teams. The Dodgers making this list is problematic for their post-season adventures. The Yankees, for all their prowess, are not good in this category. Two of their starters, Burnett and Chamberlain, are in the top five in the American League for walks per nine innings. That's pretty scary.
There are eleven starting pitchers in the majors with a walk per nine innings ratio of less than two. They are (in order of stingiest): Pineiro, Halladay, Haren, Carpenter, Buehrle, Pavano, Baker, Cliff Lee, Ted Lilly, Zack Greinke and Javier Vazquez. Every one of the eleven have winning records (yeah, even Pavano). That is not a coincidence.
There are twelve starting pitchers in the majors with a walk per nine innings higher than four per game (100 innings minimum). They are (in order of wildness): Jonathan Sanchez, Kershaw, Parra, Doug Davis, Joba, Suppon, Gallardo, Burnett, Zambrano, Meche, Tallet and Liriano. Only five of these twelve have winning records, which again is no surprise. Liriano must be driving the Twins crazy!
Seven of the twelve pitchers just mentioned have ERA+ figures above league average because they have the stuff to get out of trouble. Guys like Kershaw, Gallardo, Zambrano, Burnett and Joba can all get themselves out of their own jams with their stuff. But you have to wonder how good they could all be if they could just throw more strikes more effectively. Their wildness leads to high pitch counts which gets them out of games quicker, leads to more no-decisions and taxes the heck out of their bullpens. Again, when Chamberlain, Burnett and Kershaw get their teams in the playoffs, their ability to throw strikes will seriously effect the outcomes of those games.
It is also no coincidence that the bottom twelve starters in this category get decisions in only 67 percent of their games started while the top eleven guys get decisions in 79 percent of their starts. Joba Chamberlain and Jeff Suppon have only had decisions in half of their games started.
It is hard to understand why some pitchers throw more strikes than others. Those that walk a lot of batters only make it harder on themselves to succeed. Those that can limit the walks have a much better chance at winning. Just ask Carl Pavano.
Some teams do get it. The Twins and the Cardinals focus on throwing strikes. And, as is easy to see, the Cardinals seem to throw more effective strikes than the Twins. But the Twins have always concentrated on limiting walks and they are very good at doing so. The Cardinals are the same way. The two teams are one/two in being the stingiest teams in baseball on giving a free pass. The Cardinals average of 2.98 per nine innings is more than a full walk a game less than the Mets who are the worst in this category with over four walks per nine innings.
The top five teams at limiting walks:
- Cardinals
- Twins
- Diamondbacks
- Rockies
- Phillies
The five worst:
- Mets
- Nationals
- Brewers
- Padres
- Dodgers
The top five are all pretty darn good teams. Four of the five worst are bad teams. The Dodgers making this list is problematic for their post-season adventures. The Yankees, for all their prowess, are not good in this category. Two of their starters, Burnett and Chamberlain, are in the top five in the American League for walks per nine innings. That's pretty scary.
There are eleven starting pitchers in the majors with a walk per nine innings ratio of less than two. They are (in order of stingiest): Pineiro, Halladay, Haren, Carpenter, Buehrle, Pavano, Baker, Cliff Lee, Ted Lilly, Zack Greinke and Javier Vazquez. Every one of the eleven have winning records (yeah, even Pavano). That is not a coincidence.
There are twelve starting pitchers in the majors with a walk per nine innings higher than four per game (100 innings minimum). They are (in order of wildness): Jonathan Sanchez, Kershaw, Parra, Doug Davis, Joba, Suppon, Gallardo, Burnett, Zambrano, Meche, Tallet and Liriano. Only five of these twelve have winning records, which again is no surprise. Liriano must be driving the Twins crazy!
Seven of the twelve pitchers just mentioned have ERA+ figures above league average because they have the stuff to get out of trouble. Guys like Kershaw, Gallardo, Zambrano, Burnett and Joba can all get themselves out of their own jams with their stuff. But you have to wonder how good they could all be if they could just throw more strikes more effectively. Their wildness leads to high pitch counts which gets them out of games quicker, leads to more no-decisions and taxes the heck out of their bullpens. Again, when Chamberlain, Burnett and Kershaw get their teams in the playoffs, their ability to throw strikes will seriously effect the outcomes of those games.
It is also no coincidence that the bottom twelve starters in this category get decisions in only 67 percent of their games started while the top eleven guys get decisions in 79 percent of their starts. Joba Chamberlain and Jeff Suppon have only had decisions in half of their games started.
It is hard to understand why some pitchers throw more strikes than others. Those that walk a lot of batters only make it harder on themselves to succeed. Those that can limit the walks have a much better chance at winning. Just ask Carl Pavano.
Game Picks - Thursday: August 27, 2009
Our weather went from low 80's and high 70's (delightful) to downright chilly (high 40's this morning) and that reflects the success of the picks last night. But just like this picker's stubborn refusal to ever get a Twins' pick correct, the picker also has his shorts on. Stubbornness runs in the family. And oh, those giddy Mets who have now lost Oliver Perez for the season too. Well, that might not be that big a loss this time.
There are quite a few games on the slate for a Thursday this week and that's a good thing. And since it is "get away day," many of the games are day games. Cool! No, downright chilly.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 20-19
Month: 171-156
There are quite a few games on the slate for a Thursday this week and that's a good thing. And since it is "get away day," many of the games are day games. Cool! No, downright chilly.
- The Yankees over the Rangers: Nippert has been good, but it's the Yankees...
- The Marlins over the Mets: Sanchez looked good his first start back last time and Tim Redding, well, is Tim Redding.
- The Reds over the Brewers: The Reds get another Lehr report and the Brewers are starting Bush. Remember him?
- The Cardinals over the Astros: Carpenter could win the Cy Young with three or four more wins. How cool would that be after missing two years?
- The Cubs over the Nationals: Wells is the Cubs designated winner.
- The Rockies over the Dodgers: De La Rosa versus Vincente Padilla, another pitcher to give Torre some grey hair.
- The Phillies over the Pirates: Happ beats the Happless Pirates.
- The Indians over the Orioles: Laffey versus D. Hernandez. Not a pitching match up made in heaven.
- The Padres over the Braves: The White Sox should not have given up Richard and the Braves are fading.
- The White Sox over the Red Sox: Still not convinced this Tazawa is as good as he looked against the Yankees.
- The Mariners over the Royals: Fister should beat Davies in a battle of bad offensive teams.
- The Diamondbacks over the Giants: When the pitching match up is even, go with the better offensive club.
- The Athletics over the Angels: Because we need at least one upset today.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 20-19
Month: 171-156
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Has There Ever Been a Season Like the Mets' Season?
If the Mets have insurance policies for some of their bigger stars, the insurance company is probably reeling as bad as the Mets are. Has any team in history lost so much talent for so long in one season like the Mets have this season? And it keeps getting better and better. David Wright got concussed a while back and now Johan Santana, one of the most expensive pitchers in baseball history, has blown out his elbow and is headed for surgery.
Remember when everyone skewered the Yankees' general manager because he failed to trade Hughes and others for Santana? The Steinbrenners should kiss the guy now because he saved them a pile of money. Santana always reminded the Fan of a more-skilled Mike Hampton. They have similar body types and deliveries. And Hampton, after more time on the DL over the last five years than off of it, could be what the Mets are looking at with Santana.
Rob Neyer, among others, have publicly wondered about how the Mets have abused Santana by sending the great pitcher out there to pitch for the last month when everyone apparently knew he was hurting. The point is valid and you have to wonder why the Mets would have risked their biggest prize in such a lost season. But you have to put some of the responsibility on Santana too who allowed himself to pitch when he obviously wasn't right.
And now the pitcher will be out for a long time as he has to undergo surgery. Nobody has said yet whether it will be Tommy John surgery, but that's what will probably happen. If it does, you're looking at a year or more until we see Santana again.
Meanwhile, the Mets have to be wondering what the heck is happening. Let's add it all up again: Beltran, Delgado, Reyes, Maine, Putz and now Santana. That's a lot of talent shelved for a long period of time. The result is predictable and the team has now gone 29-47 since the end of May. That .383 winning percentage during that time is more like the Royals than the team that was supposed to win the division this year.
But injuries only appear to be part of the story for this club. Minaya has been erratic from the GM seat and Jerry Manuel is not inspiring as a manager. Manuel's record since taking over for Willie Randolph is now 57-68 and he has been roundly criticized on his handling of David Wright's concussion and now Santana's elbow. Perhaps that is justified and perhaps just as much of Manuel's record is justified by all the injuries. But it still seems that the Mets would be well served to clean house and start over.
Perhaps Bobby Valentine is available?
Remember when everyone skewered the Yankees' general manager because he failed to trade Hughes and others for Santana? The Steinbrenners should kiss the guy now because he saved them a pile of money. Santana always reminded the Fan of a more-skilled Mike Hampton. They have similar body types and deliveries. And Hampton, after more time on the DL over the last five years than off of it, could be what the Mets are looking at with Santana.
Rob Neyer, among others, have publicly wondered about how the Mets have abused Santana by sending the great pitcher out there to pitch for the last month when everyone apparently knew he was hurting. The point is valid and you have to wonder why the Mets would have risked their biggest prize in such a lost season. But you have to put some of the responsibility on Santana too who allowed himself to pitch when he obviously wasn't right.
And now the pitcher will be out for a long time as he has to undergo surgery. Nobody has said yet whether it will be Tommy John surgery, but that's what will probably happen. If it does, you're looking at a year or more until we see Santana again.
Meanwhile, the Mets have to be wondering what the heck is happening. Let's add it all up again: Beltran, Delgado, Reyes, Maine, Putz and now Santana. That's a lot of talent shelved for a long period of time. The result is predictable and the team has now gone 29-47 since the end of May. That .383 winning percentage during that time is more like the Royals than the team that was supposed to win the division this year.
But injuries only appear to be part of the story for this club. Minaya has been erratic from the GM seat and Jerry Manuel is not inspiring as a manager. Manuel's record since taking over for Willie Randolph is now 57-68 and he has been roundly criticized on his handling of David Wright's concussion and now Santana's elbow. Perhaps that is justified and perhaps just as much of Manuel's record is justified by all the injuries. But it still seems that the Mets would be well served to clean house and start over.
Perhaps Bobby Valentine is available?
Game Picks - Wednesday: August 26, 2009
The Rockies are amazing. That's all there is to it. Once again, they rattled the Dodgers cages and are now within two games of their rival. This picker needs to get on the ball and remember which team is playing better at the moment. Besides that bit of a picking problem, the Rangers toasted Joba Chamberlain but the Yankees almost came all the way back to win and fell a run short. The Blue Jays were a stupid pick. The Braves have no discernible offense and keep screwing up those picks. The Brewers have become one of the worst teams in the National League and this picker still can't believe it. The Diamondbacks' Haren couldn't stop the Giants. The Athletics were a stupid pick and the Wandy/Wainwright duel was everything this picker thought it would be, but the wrong team won. There were six total hits in that contest. Pujols, though, was the difference.
And so, it was a below average night of picks but because the Fan correctly picked the Pirates, the Nationals and the Tigers, a lot of points were picked up at good old, screwy BallHype.com. At least there was a silver lining to that cloud even if it's a stupid one. Let's get to Wednesday's picks:
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 20-19
Month: 171-156
And so, it was a below average night of picks but because the Fan correctly picked the Pirates, the Nationals and the Tigers, a lot of points were picked up at good old, screwy BallHype.com. At least there was a silver lining to that cloud even if it's a stupid one. Let's get to Wednesday's picks:
- The Royals over the Indians: Hochever versus Huff. This is not an inspired pick.
- The Tigers over the Angels: Jackson should beat Saunders.
- The Phillies over the Pirates: Maholm is a good pitcher but the Phillies should win. Hamels has been very ordinary though this year, so the pick isn't a comfortable one.
- The Yankees over the Rangers: This one should be fairly low scoring after last night's offensive show.
- The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Kazmir seems to be back to his old self while the Bay Rays are gearing to make a run at the wild card.
- The Braves over the Padres: Kawakami versus Stauffer. Consider this pick your stocking Stauffer.
- The Marlins over the Mets: Josh Johnson should have his way with the Mets in this one.
- The White Sox over the Red Sox: Wakefield is back, but the wheezers of Chicago should enjoy his slower stuff.
- The Nationals over the Cubs: Livan lives! And he's back in Washington! hehehehehehehe.
- The Brewers over the Reds: The Reds are starting Kip Wells. Oy vey.
- The Orioles over the Twins: Guthrie was good last time out. And he has probably suckered this picker again.
- The Cardinals over the Astros: Pineiro out duels Oswalt.
- The Dodgers over the Rockies: This picker is a slow learner, isn't he?
- The Mariners over the A's: Really like this French kid.
- The Diamondbacks over the Giants: Does anybody still think the Giants have a chance in the wild card? Nope.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 20-19
Month: 171-156
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Game Picks - Tuesday: August 24, 2009
Just a little behind today. No doubt you have noticed. Picked correctly six out of nine last night, which is better than things have been lately.
Since it's late, let's get right to the picks:
Yesterday: 6-3
Week: 13-11
Month: 164-148
Since it's late, let's get right to the picks:
- The Pirates over the Phillies: Yeah, this is a stupid pick. But Ohlendorf has been like an incredible Strat-O-Matic baseball player. Have to stick with him.
- The Yankees over the Rangers: Yankees at home spells trouble for the Rangers and Millwood.
- The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Toronto is at home and Shields has been unreliable.
- The Braves over the Padres: Latos has been good, but Jurrjens should win.
- The Marlins over the Mets: Don't like either West or Figueroa. But somebody has to win.
- The Red Sox over the White Sox: The White Sox are starting Freddie Garcia again. They are kidding right? It's the worst return of Freddie since the horror movies.
- The Brewers over the Reds: The Brewers hit homers. Arroyo is prone to them.
- The Nationals over the Cubs: If the Fan is correct on this one, the Cubs are surely dead.
- The Twins over the Orioles: Matusz versus Gambino? Who? Sounds like a mafia fight.
- The Royals over the Indians: Can Greinke get some support? Maybe against Masterson he can.
- The Astros over the Cardinals: Wandy versus Wainwright in a great match up.
- The Dodgers over the Rockies: But Kershaw has to come up big for this to be right.
- The Tigers over the Angels: Washburn can pretend he is still in the AL West for this one.
- The Athletics over the Mariners: Anderson versus Rowland-Smith. Two good looking young pitchers.
- The Diamondbacks over the Giants: Haran versus Cain in another great match up.
Yesterday: 6-3
Week: 13-11
Month: 164-148
Phooey on the Salary Cap and Other Assorted Complaints
[[switching to the first person]] Toronto is home to one of the finest bloggers in the blogsphere. He is also a notorious and self-described homer for his home town sports teams. And my blog bud's problem is similar to a small man's complex. The Yankees and the Red Sox are the "haves" and the Blue Jays are the "have nots." Understood. Today, this fine blogger linked another blogger on money being the root of all evil in baseball. I could say this politely, but, we might as well be frank: Phooey.
Let's go back in the time machine and peer into the world of the New York Yankees in the 1960s. I was there and this was the world I grew up in. Born and bred in New Jersey (please don't hold that against me as I have been gone from there for 35 years now), the Yankees were the home team and they were our world...and they stunk to high heaven.
Back then, the team was owned by CBS, the media giant, and were run by a flamboyant former mayor of the city by the name of John Lindsey. I don't really know how good he was as a mayor but it is hoped that he was a better mayor than he was a baseball man. CBS simply ran the grand old team into the ground. After decades of Ruths and Gehrigs, DiMaggios, Yogis and Mantles, the Yankees became a team filled with the likes of Tom Tresh, Dooley Womack, Mike Kekich, Horace Clarke, Thad Tillotson, Lindy McDaniel, Mike Hegan and Roger Repoz. I don't suppose you have ever heard of any of them.
In 1967, the New York Yankees batted .223 as a team. That's right. .223. They were tenth in a ten team league in runs scored, doubles, and slugging percentage. They had a .613 team OPS. The year after that, they batted .214 as a team. Yeah, .214. Can you imagine? They make the Giants look like a hitting team. That year (1968), their infield consisted of Mantle at first (in his last year). He batted .237. Horace Clarke batted lead off and hit .230 with a .258 OBP. He was the second baseman. Tom Tresh played short. He hit .195 in 507 at bats. Bobby Cox (yup, the same guy sitting as the great guru of Atlanta) played third and batted .229. How's that for an infield?
The point of all this? The Yankees were a dead franchise. Tickets were so cheap that after my dad died, my mom would send us to the Stadium as her way of babysitting us when she had to work on Saturday. She gave my brother and me $5 each and that was enough for the bus to the city, the subway to the stadium, entrance to the bleachers and we had enough left over for a coke. The Yankees, if you can imagine it, barely drew over a million fans. My brother and I would wait until the ushers left after the fourth inning and then go down to the empty box seats behind the Yankee dugout. We saw all our heroes (what did we know?) up close for $5 round trip. One of the only reasons that the attendance figure was as high as it was came from two unique events: Bat Day and Old Timer's Day. Those two events brought in 65,000 people. The rest of the time? Nothing.
The Yankees had only a public television deal with WPIX (channel 11) and a radio deal with WCBS, a powerful station that sent Yankee broadcasts far and wide around New England. George Steinbrenner bought the team for a song. Really. He paid $10 million for the team. You couldn't buy a minor league club for that amount. That's how badly the Yankees' mess had become.
And love him or hate him, Steinbrenner knew what he was doing. He hired good baseball people and they started developing players like Thurman Munson, Don Mattingly, Ron Guidry and others. You've heard of them, right? When free agency broke, Steinbrenner jumped on it and got players like Goose Gossage, Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter and guys like Oscar Gamble. The team started winning and George created the Billy Martin soap opera and put the Yankees on the front page of the New York papers. The Stadium started hopping again.
The team later put together the YES network, the most successful sports channel and money maker in baseball. Now the team is an event in New York. Four million people come to see them play despite astronomical seat prices.
Want another example? From 1960 t0 1966, the Boston Red Sox went 499-624. They came in next to last place three times during that stretch. In 1965, the Red Sox drew only 654,000 fans to come see them play. Now everyone is mad at them because they and the Yankees are the "haves" in baseball and it's not fair and we need a salary cap.
What people don't understand is that both the Yankees and Red Sox have built their empires on smarts and shrewdness. They started with nothing and built what they have become today. Why are they vilified for their success? Why should their success be punished with a salary cap because other teams weren't as smart or as shrewd?
It wasn't too long ago that the Blue Jays were the cream of the American League. They drew over four million fans in their second World Championship season. Unfortunately, they haven't been able to keep that ball rolling and as such, have fallen behind in payroll. That's the way it is.
What the Yankees and the Red Sox (and the Cubs for that matter) have done is build a brand. It's a good old American tradition that still works. Grind your teeth if you will at the "Red Sox Nation" but it has worked in spades. The Cubs were, along with the Braves, the original pioneers of cable television. That brilliant stroke still pays off today as the Braves and the Cubs are in the top ten in road attendance. The Cubs are third and the Braves ninth. Toronto is 29th. They haven't built their brand.
And don't you think that road attendance isn't beneficial to all those teams the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers play? Say that the average ticket price is $15 (yeah, as if). Then the Cubs bring a gate on the road of $533,000. The Royals average gate at that price would be $410,000. All teams split the proceeds of MLB merchandise. The bonanza is somewhere around $65 million a team. Don't you understand that most of that merchandise is sales of Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Cubs jerseys and hats? Yet all teams reap the same benefits.
Of course we all get tired of nationally televised games always being these big teams. Understood. But that's where the money is and again, all that money the networks pay the teams is shared equally. Do you think the Nationals sign Strasburg without that money? Not likely.
The "haves" in baseball have earned it. In 1966, the Cubs drew only 623,000 paying customers. Last year, it was 3.2 million with almost the same amount on the road. They successfully built a brand and thus can afford a higher payroll. That's the model folks. Build it and they will come.
And there is one other thing that works against the "have nots" and that is the union. MLB players have the strongest union in sports. There is no way they will ever agree to a salary cap. No way at all. It's not going to happen.
This Fan believes that a salary cap is nothing but an easy out for teams that just don't do business correctly. Some teams aren't smart enough to build a brand (or a good team for that matter) so let's do the salary cap so they can be rewarded for their lousy work. The sad truth is that they are already rewarded for their lousy work.
A commenter on the blog that started this opus warned that salary caps have led the NBA off season to become a fiasco as most teams make moves based on the cap instead of on what's best for the team. Besides, the salary cap hasn't done much for the Clippers and the Bengals has it? A badly run franchise is a badly run franchise and teams like the Royals have only themselves to blame.
Money isn't the root of evil in baseball. Bad personnel decisions and bad business models are.
Let's go back in the time machine and peer into the world of the New York Yankees in the 1960s. I was there and this was the world I grew up in. Born and bred in New Jersey (please don't hold that against me as I have been gone from there for 35 years now), the Yankees were the home team and they were our world...and they stunk to high heaven.
Back then, the team was owned by CBS, the media giant, and were run by a flamboyant former mayor of the city by the name of John Lindsey. I don't really know how good he was as a mayor but it is hoped that he was a better mayor than he was a baseball man. CBS simply ran the grand old team into the ground. After decades of Ruths and Gehrigs, DiMaggios, Yogis and Mantles, the Yankees became a team filled with the likes of Tom Tresh, Dooley Womack, Mike Kekich, Horace Clarke, Thad Tillotson, Lindy McDaniel, Mike Hegan and Roger Repoz. I don't suppose you have ever heard of any of them.
In 1967, the New York Yankees batted .223 as a team. That's right. .223. They were tenth in a ten team league in runs scored, doubles, and slugging percentage. They had a .613 team OPS. The year after that, they batted .214 as a team. Yeah, .214. Can you imagine? They make the Giants look like a hitting team. That year (1968), their infield consisted of Mantle at first (in his last year). He batted .237. Horace Clarke batted lead off and hit .230 with a .258 OBP. He was the second baseman. Tom Tresh played short. He hit .195 in 507 at bats. Bobby Cox (yup, the same guy sitting as the great guru of Atlanta) played third and batted .229. How's that for an infield?
The point of all this? The Yankees were a dead franchise. Tickets were so cheap that after my dad died, my mom would send us to the Stadium as her way of babysitting us when she had to work on Saturday. She gave my brother and me $5 each and that was enough for the bus to the city, the subway to the stadium, entrance to the bleachers and we had enough left over for a coke. The Yankees, if you can imagine it, barely drew over a million fans. My brother and I would wait until the ushers left after the fourth inning and then go down to the empty box seats behind the Yankee dugout. We saw all our heroes (what did we know?) up close for $5 round trip. One of the only reasons that the attendance figure was as high as it was came from two unique events: Bat Day and Old Timer's Day. Those two events brought in 65,000 people. The rest of the time? Nothing.
The Yankees had only a public television deal with WPIX (channel 11) and a radio deal with WCBS, a powerful station that sent Yankee broadcasts far and wide around New England. George Steinbrenner bought the team for a song. Really. He paid $10 million for the team. You couldn't buy a minor league club for that amount. That's how badly the Yankees' mess had become.
And love him or hate him, Steinbrenner knew what he was doing. He hired good baseball people and they started developing players like Thurman Munson, Don Mattingly, Ron Guidry and others. You've heard of them, right? When free agency broke, Steinbrenner jumped on it and got players like Goose Gossage, Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter and guys like Oscar Gamble. The team started winning and George created the Billy Martin soap opera and put the Yankees on the front page of the New York papers. The Stadium started hopping again.
The team later put together the YES network, the most successful sports channel and money maker in baseball. Now the team is an event in New York. Four million people come to see them play despite astronomical seat prices.
Want another example? From 1960 t0 1966, the Boston Red Sox went 499-624. They came in next to last place three times during that stretch. In 1965, the Red Sox drew only 654,000 fans to come see them play. Now everyone is mad at them because they and the Yankees are the "haves" in baseball and it's not fair and we need a salary cap.
What people don't understand is that both the Yankees and Red Sox have built their empires on smarts and shrewdness. They started with nothing and built what they have become today. Why are they vilified for their success? Why should their success be punished with a salary cap because other teams weren't as smart or as shrewd?
It wasn't too long ago that the Blue Jays were the cream of the American League. They drew over four million fans in their second World Championship season. Unfortunately, they haven't been able to keep that ball rolling and as such, have fallen behind in payroll. That's the way it is.
What the Yankees and the Red Sox (and the Cubs for that matter) have done is build a brand. It's a good old American tradition that still works. Grind your teeth if you will at the "Red Sox Nation" but it has worked in spades. The Cubs were, along with the Braves, the original pioneers of cable television. That brilliant stroke still pays off today as the Braves and the Cubs are in the top ten in road attendance. The Cubs are third and the Braves ninth. Toronto is 29th. They haven't built their brand.
And don't you think that road attendance isn't beneficial to all those teams the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers play? Say that the average ticket price is $15 (yeah, as if). Then the Cubs bring a gate on the road of $533,000. The Royals average gate at that price would be $410,000. All teams split the proceeds of MLB merchandise. The bonanza is somewhere around $65 million a team. Don't you understand that most of that merchandise is sales of Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Cubs jerseys and hats? Yet all teams reap the same benefits.
Of course we all get tired of nationally televised games always being these big teams. Understood. But that's where the money is and again, all that money the networks pay the teams is shared equally. Do you think the Nationals sign Strasburg without that money? Not likely.
The "haves" in baseball have earned it. In 1966, the Cubs drew only 623,000 paying customers. Last year, it was 3.2 million with almost the same amount on the road. They successfully built a brand and thus can afford a higher payroll. That's the model folks. Build it and they will come.
And there is one other thing that works against the "have nots" and that is the union. MLB players have the strongest union in sports. There is no way they will ever agree to a salary cap. No way at all. It's not going to happen.
This Fan believes that a salary cap is nothing but an easy out for teams that just don't do business correctly. Some teams aren't smart enough to build a brand (or a good team for that matter) so let's do the salary cap so they can be rewarded for their lousy work. The sad truth is that they are already rewarded for their lousy work.
A commenter on the blog that started this opus warned that salary caps have led the NBA off season to become a fiasco as most teams make moves based on the cap instead of on what's best for the team. Besides, the salary cap hasn't done much for the Clippers and the Bengals has it? A badly run franchise is a badly run franchise and teams like the Royals have only themselves to blame.
Money isn't the root of evil in baseball. Bad personnel decisions and bad business models are.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Game Picks - Monday: August 24, 2009
Another day, another blah day of picking results. The games are all over the place so it's hard to figure out what is going to happen. This picker accurately picked that Lincecum wouldn't beat the Rockies, Sabathia would beat Beckett, Feldman would beat the Bay Rays and Pedro would beat the Mets (sort of). But those were the highlights to a mostly kerfuffles day.
Monday features only nine games as some teams get a rest. Perhaps this little mediocre streak will get a rest too.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 7-8
Month: 158-145
Monday features only nine games as some teams get a rest. Perhaps this little mediocre streak will get a rest too.
- The Phillies over the Mets: Cliff Lee goes to 5-0 in the NL.
- The Brewers over the Nationals: The suddenly awful Brewers should get a win here as Gallardo should beat Balester.
- The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Halladay should win at home versus Niemann.
- The Red Sox over the White Sox: It doesn't appear as if the Red Sox will catch the Yankees, but if they want to keep the wild card, they better get going.
- The Royals over the Indians: Going with Gil (ga) Meche over Sowers.
- The Twins over the Orioles: The Orioles spanked the White Sox yesterday, so who can figure them out. The Twins are even harder to figure out. Time to Eeney Meeney it.
- The Rockies over the Giants: The Giants lack of hitting is going to give the Rockies the wild card. Besides, Marquis is pitching.
- The Tigers over the Angels: Verlander needs to throw strikes, but if he does, he should win this one against Weaver.
- The Athletics over the Mariners: Ian Snell has to prove he can pitch again in the majors. This Fan doesn't see it happening.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 7-8
Month: 158-145
Another Red Sox - Yankees Series in the Books
Another chapter was written in the long, sordid history that is the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry. For the time being, the Yankees have the edge in the match up as they have won six of the last seven meetings. There was some hesitation at writing this particular post because about 90% of the country have had their fill of this particular story and are nauseous from hearing about it. And that sick feeling would be worthy as only the last game was remotely close as a contest.
In game one of the series, the Yankees played butcher and the game was basically over by the fourth inning. In Saturday's game two, the Red Sox had basically iced the game by the third inning. At least there was a smidgen of drama in the last game.
In the finale, the Yankees jumped out to a 2-0 lead on solo homers by Jeter (on the first pitch of the game) and Hideki Matsui. But the Red Sox roared right back to tie it off of Sabathia with two runs of their own. But the suddenly gopher-plagued Josh Beckett couldn't keep the ball in the Park and the Yankees scored all their eight runs on homers to win the game. Sabathia wasn't brilliant, but he held down the Red Sox long enough to get to Hughes and Rivera. Sabathia wasn't helped by two stupid errors by Robinson Cano, who showed he still isn't totally beyond his tendency to fall asleep at the wheel at times.
That's probably enough of the details. You probably watched the game or if not, have seen plenty of news wire stories with the details. The remainder of this post is probably best served by a few observations from watching the fairly ugly series.
- For those 90% of you that are sick to death of the Red Sox and Yankees, you probably got sick to your stomachs by another nationally televised love-fest for Derek Jeter. Sheepishly, this writer has to admit that Jeter is his favorite player, but stating that fact makes the Fan pretty squeamish as you 90% have probably had your fill of him and the Fan can't blame you. Jeter is probably the third best offensive shortstop in history. It is obvious that he has the respect of his peers around the league and his own players. And that's well deserved. The guy has been a terrific player for a long, long time, but the announcers paint him as god-like and chiseled from some immortal cloth and face it, nobody is THAT good. Every time the Fan hears the announcers go all googly like that, there is much squirming in the seat as the Fan knows how that is sitting around the country. It's no wonder that Jeter is one of the favorite targets in the blogsphere.
- That said, Jeter sure is hot right now. The guy is piling up hits in huge bunches.
- The Burnett/Posada flap is a concern as is some building problems with the Red Sox' new catcher and his pitchers. Apparently, Burnett doesn't believe in Posada's pitch calling and was pretty demonstrative about it during his pounding. Joe Girardi has to step in here even if it means stepping on Posada's toes. Posada is on the down hill run of his career but Burnett is a healthy investment for a few more years to come. Girardi needs to step in and bring the pitcher and the catcher to the table and explain that Burnett should call his own game for a while.
- Pedroia is the kind of player you root for. He's a little guy and a bit of the Everyman. It seems evident though that last year was his peak as a player and though he'll be a useful and good player for years to come, he isn't going to repeat his MVP type season again.
- Kevin Youkilis needs to tone it down a bit. The guy got where he is by being a fiery player of immense drive that fuels his assault on the game. There is no doubt that his temperament helped get him from being a soft-tools guy and building his career until he is one of the best players in the game. But after his charge to the mound a couple of weeks ago and his loud swearing on national television after he struck out in the first inning, he needs to reel it in a notch for the sake of the fans, particularly the young ones. The Fan doesn't want to come across as a goody two shoes, but Youkilis has become a bit of a boor lately.
- This must be one of those generational things, but Sabathia's tattoos are gross.
- Back to Jeter for a second (yeah, yeah, the Fan hears ya), his homer on the first pitch was important psychologically for the Yankees. They just got their butts wiped the day before and Beckett has owned them going all the way back to the Marlins' World Series. For Jeter to start the game with a homer had to give his team a boost and showed them that there was hope in getting to Beckett, and that is exactly what happened.
- This series isn't the same without Tim Wakefield. He seriously messes with the Yankees' heads and Boston could have used him in this series.
- Wakefield has some company. That Haeger that pitched that gem for the Dodgers on Saturday is a knuckleballer. If the Dodgers get to the series and play the Yankees, they should seriously consider getting Haeger on the WS roster.
- Much was made during the telecast of the way that Jason Varitek moves at the last minute to keep the location of the pitch a secret until it is delivered. But one question comes to mind about that after watching him. When he moves, it's a very noticeable jump either outside or inside. Wouldn't most batters see that in their peripheral vision? One other question that people with more knowledge than this Fan might know: With such a late jerky move that occurs during the pitcher's wind up, wouldn't that make it just that much harder for the hurler to find his target?
- Gardner is missed on the Yankees. He does a lot of little things that help the team and his absence makes Melky play more often and Melky is better in shorter doses.
- The Fan is getting seriously tired of Swisher. And geez, man, get a new batting helmet. That Manny Ramirez look-a-like with all the pine tar on it is gross. One of these days, a lizard is going to crawl in that ooze and die and the fossil will be found a thousand years from now.
- A bad-hipped A-Rod is still a lot better player than most of his peers.
- Rocco Baldelli had a good game. You have to root for him. You just have to.
- And finally, in a "Duh" comment, the Yankees look better than the Red Sox these days for the first time in a very long time.
In game one of the series, the Yankees played butcher and the game was basically over by the fourth inning. In Saturday's game two, the Red Sox had basically iced the game by the third inning. At least there was a smidgen of drama in the last game.
In the finale, the Yankees jumped out to a 2-0 lead on solo homers by Jeter (on the first pitch of the game) and Hideki Matsui. But the Red Sox roared right back to tie it off of Sabathia with two runs of their own. But the suddenly gopher-plagued Josh Beckett couldn't keep the ball in the Park and the Yankees scored all their eight runs on homers to win the game. Sabathia wasn't brilliant, but he held down the Red Sox long enough to get to Hughes and Rivera. Sabathia wasn't helped by two stupid errors by Robinson Cano, who showed he still isn't totally beyond his tendency to fall asleep at the wheel at times.
That's probably enough of the details. You probably watched the game or if not, have seen plenty of news wire stories with the details. The remainder of this post is probably best served by a few observations from watching the fairly ugly series.
- For those 90% of you that are sick to death of the Red Sox and Yankees, you probably got sick to your stomachs by another nationally televised love-fest for Derek Jeter. Sheepishly, this writer has to admit that Jeter is his favorite player, but stating that fact makes the Fan pretty squeamish as you 90% have probably had your fill of him and the Fan can't blame you. Jeter is probably the third best offensive shortstop in history. It is obvious that he has the respect of his peers around the league and his own players. And that's well deserved. The guy has been a terrific player for a long, long time, but the announcers paint him as god-like and chiseled from some immortal cloth and face it, nobody is THAT good. Every time the Fan hears the announcers go all googly like that, there is much squirming in the seat as the Fan knows how that is sitting around the country. It's no wonder that Jeter is one of the favorite targets in the blogsphere.
- That said, Jeter sure is hot right now. The guy is piling up hits in huge bunches.
- The Burnett/Posada flap is a concern as is some building problems with the Red Sox' new catcher and his pitchers. Apparently, Burnett doesn't believe in Posada's pitch calling and was pretty demonstrative about it during his pounding. Joe Girardi has to step in here even if it means stepping on Posada's toes. Posada is on the down hill run of his career but Burnett is a healthy investment for a few more years to come. Girardi needs to step in and bring the pitcher and the catcher to the table and explain that Burnett should call his own game for a while.
- Pedroia is the kind of player you root for. He's a little guy and a bit of the Everyman. It seems evident though that last year was his peak as a player and though he'll be a useful and good player for years to come, he isn't going to repeat his MVP type season again.
- Kevin Youkilis needs to tone it down a bit. The guy got where he is by being a fiery player of immense drive that fuels his assault on the game. There is no doubt that his temperament helped get him from being a soft-tools guy and building his career until he is one of the best players in the game. But after his charge to the mound a couple of weeks ago and his loud swearing on national television after he struck out in the first inning, he needs to reel it in a notch for the sake of the fans, particularly the young ones. The Fan doesn't want to come across as a goody two shoes, but Youkilis has become a bit of a boor lately.
- This must be one of those generational things, but Sabathia's tattoos are gross.
- Back to Jeter for a second (yeah, yeah, the Fan hears ya), his homer on the first pitch was important psychologically for the Yankees. They just got their butts wiped the day before and Beckett has owned them going all the way back to the Marlins' World Series. For Jeter to start the game with a homer had to give his team a boost and showed them that there was hope in getting to Beckett, and that is exactly what happened.
- This series isn't the same without Tim Wakefield. He seriously messes with the Yankees' heads and Boston could have used him in this series.
- Wakefield has some company. That Haeger that pitched that gem for the Dodgers on Saturday is a knuckleballer. If the Dodgers get to the series and play the Yankees, they should seriously consider getting Haeger on the WS roster.
- Much was made during the telecast of the way that Jason Varitek moves at the last minute to keep the location of the pitch a secret until it is delivered. But one question comes to mind about that after watching him. When he moves, it's a very noticeable jump either outside or inside. Wouldn't most batters see that in their peripheral vision? One other question that people with more knowledge than this Fan might know: With such a late jerky move that occurs during the pitcher's wind up, wouldn't that make it just that much harder for the hurler to find his target?
- Gardner is missed on the Yankees. He does a lot of little things that help the team and his absence makes Melky play more often and Melky is better in shorter doses.
- The Fan is getting seriously tired of Swisher. And geez, man, get a new batting helmet. That Manny Ramirez look-a-like with all the pine tar on it is gross. One of these days, a lizard is going to crawl in that ooze and die and the fossil will be found a thousand years from now.
- A bad-hipped A-Rod is still a lot better player than most of his peers.
- Rocco Baldelli had a good game. You have to root for him. You just have to.
- And finally, in a "Duh" comment, the Yankees look better than the Red Sox these days for the first time in a very long time.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Game Picks - Sunday: August 23, 2009
Yesterday could have been a disaster. The Yankees lost big time. The Angels beat the Blue Jays (what was this picker thinking on that one?). The Dodgers beat the Cubs (ditto). And the Pirates beat the Reds. So before this picker could blink, he was down 0-5. But the later games rallied and the final results were at least almost even. The results could have climbed over .500 but Jim Leyland decided he didn't want to win his game against Oakland and put Zack Minor in the game in the ninth. Yeah, like that was going to work. NOT.
Perhaps Sunday will be better. At least it's the start of a new week:
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 53-43
Month: 151-137
Perhaps Sunday will be better. At least it's the start of a new week:
- The Mariners over the Indians: King Felix should take care of this one against Carmona.
- The Blue Jays over the Angels: Like Romero over Bell, but of course, the Fan is crazy.
- The Phillies over the Mets: Pedro versus Oliver Perez. Ick.
- The Pirates over the Reds: The Pirates have won six in a row. Please make it seven.
- The Nationals over the Brewers: This pick shows how little faith the Fan has in Parra.
- The Marlins over the Braves: Nolasco over Lowe. Lowe can win those if he gets these Marlins to chase.
- The Rangers over the Bay Rays: Things haven't been good for Texas in this series. Perhaps Feldman can save it.
- The Astros over the Diamondbacks: The Stros have taken the first two and Norris has been pretty good so far.
- The White Sox over the Orioles: Buehrle should beat Berken.
- The Royals over the Twins: Just can't bring the will to pick Pavano to win. Just can't do it.
- The Rockies over the Giants: Best match up of the day with Jiminez versus Lincecum. Predicting that the Rockies can scratch out a run or two while the Giants can't.
- The Cardinals over the Padres: Smoltz goes out and proves that it is much easier to pitch in the National League.
- The Tigers over the Athletics: If Porcello can't beat Tomko, there is something wrong in the world.
- The Dodgers over the Cubs: Billingsley as the Cubs' season continues to go with the Dempster.
- The Yankees over the Red Sox: This had better be the brilliant Sabathia and not just the so-so Sabathia because you know Beckett will be good.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 53-43
Month: 151-137
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Game Picks - Saturday: August 22, 2009
It's hard to tell which looked worse, this pickers results sheet or Brad Penny's pitching line. The Mets won. The Padres beat the Cardinals (told you that Richard was good). The Orioles beat the White Sox. The Dodgers beat the Cubs (again). The Twins confounded (again). It was just a humbling night. But like the Red Sox, you can get drubbed the first night and still today is a new day.
So on with today's picks because the Fan has a show today in Houlton and has to get moving:
Enjoy your weekend!
Yesterday: 5-10 Doh!
Week: 46-35
Month: 144-129
So on with today's picks because the Fan has a show today in Houlton and has to get moving:
- The Blue Jays over the Angels: This Richmond kid looks good. And hey, the Blue Jays can actually win two games in a row.
- The Cubs over the Dodgers: Ted Lilly versus some kid named Haeger.
- The Yankees over the Red Sox: Burnett over Tanzawa.
- The Reds over the Pirates: Lehr versus Zack Duke. The Pirates never score for Duke.
- The Nationals over the Brewers: Lannon is superior to Burns. Both teams hit equally well.
- The Astros over the Diamondbacks: Heck, Moehler has to throw a good game once in a while.
- The Mariners over the Indians: This Fister kid (with the unfortunate name) has been really good.
- The White Sox over the Orioles: Danks should win this game against Hernandez.
- The Rangers over the Bay Rays: Good match up of Hunter versus Garza.
- The Braves over the Marlins: Like Hanson over Volstad.
- The Phillies over the Mets: Happ versus Tim Redding. Yeesh.
- The Twins over the Royals: The Twins are doing it to the Fan again. They just are.
- The Rockies over the Giants: De La Rosa versus some kid named Martinez.
- The Tigers over the A's: Galarraga versus Cahill. Going with the better team.
- The Cardinals over the Padres: Chris Carpenter puts the universe back in order.
Enjoy your weekend!
Yesterday: 5-10 Doh!
Week: 46-35
Month: 144-129
Ryan Howard Versus Prince Fielder Revisited
Heading into Friday night's games, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder have posted the following statistics:
Player A: 32 homers, .599 Slugging Percentage, 1.019 OPS. .995 Fielding Percentage, 9.37 RF/9.
Player B: 32 homers, .553 Slugging Percentage, .903 OPS, .991 Fielding Percentage, 8.98 RF/9.
Which player is Howard and which one is Fielder? You may be surprised that Player A is Prince Fielder. The Fan wrote about these two way back in February and it was fun comparing the two. The comparison covered the previous three years and Howard beat Fielder in almost every category over those three years.
But the Fan also pointed out that Howard was 29 and Fielder 24 and showed that PECOTA predicted that Howard would have Fielder beat for one more year then Fielder would eclipse the Phillies' slugger. It appears that the prediction was off by a year.
Don't get the Fan wrong. Ryan Howard is a force and a tremendous slugger in the middle of the Phillies' line up. His batting average is up from a year ago (.268 from .251) as is his On Base Percentage. But his walk ratio is down from 11.5% of his Plate Appearances to 10% this year. On the positive side, his strikeout to At Bat ratio is down from almost 33% to 28%.
But Fielder is having the far better year. His average is up 31 points (.307). His On Base Percentage is way up (.416) and his Slugging Percentage you already know. His walk to Plate Appearance average is 14.7% which is up from 12.1% from last year. And at the moment, he's much cheaper than Howard.
It looks like the lumbering first base award goes to Fielder who has eclipsed the big man in Philadelphia.
Player A: 32 homers, .599 Slugging Percentage, 1.019 OPS. .995 Fielding Percentage, 9.37 RF/9.
Player B: 32 homers, .553 Slugging Percentage, .903 OPS, .991 Fielding Percentage, 8.98 RF/9.
Which player is Howard and which one is Fielder? You may be surprised that Player A is Prince Fielder. The Fan wrote about these two way back in February and it was fun comparing the two. The comparison covered the previous three years and Howard beat Fielder in almost every category over those three years.
But the Fan also pointed out that Howard was 29 and Fielder 24 and showed that PECOTA predicted that Howard would have Fielder beat for one more year then Fielder would eclipse the Phillies' slugger. It appears that the prediction was off by a year.
Don't get the Fan wrong. Ryan Howard is a force and a tremendous slugger in the middle of the Phillies' line up. His batting average is up from a year ago (.268 from .251) as is his On Base Percentage. But his walk ratio is down from 11.5% of his Plate Appearances to 10% this year. On the positive side, his strikeout to At Bat ratio is down from almost 33% to 28%.
But Fielder is having the far better year. His average is up 31 points (.307). His On Base Percentage is way up (.416) and his Slugging Percentage you already know. His walk to Plate Appearance average is 14.7% which is up from 12.1% from last year. And at the moment, he's much cheaper than Howard.
It looks like the lumbering first base award goes to Fielder who has eclipsed the big man in Philadelphia.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Game Picks - Friday: August 21, 2009
Another so-so evening as most of the games this picker worried about proved problematic. The Cubs just aren't very good. The Bay Rays' bullpen blew another game. The Giants and Reds couldn't hit their way out of a paper bag and one of them had to win a close, low-scoring game and the wrong team did. Johan Santana lost. Add all those things up and you have a .500 day picking games. Hope you did better if you are following along.
It's dark here this morning. It's almost nine o'clock and it feels like eight in the evening. To use that as a metaphor, the Fan will now glance through the dark and try to find some illumination for these next fifteen picks:
Yesterday: 6-6
Week: 41-25
Month: 139-119
It's dark here this morning. It's almost nine o'clock and it feels like eight in the evening. To use that as a metaphor, the Fan will now glance through the dark and try to find some illumination for these next fifteen picks:
- The Reds over the Pirates: Micah Owings is back. So is this Fan's interest in him.
- The Brewers over the Nationals: The Brewers have looked like the Nationals lately and vice versa.
- The Mariners over the Indians: Too bad the Indians waited this long to play this well. But the Fan likes French in this game.
- The Angels over the Blue Jays: Two rookie pitchers. When that happens, go with the better team.
- The Phillies over the Mets: Cole Hamels should beat Bats in his Pelfrey.
- The Yankees over the Red Sox: Pettitte versus Brad Penny. Tough pick to call.
- The Braves over the Marlins: Got to go with Vazquez over Sanchez, who is once again coming off the disabled list.
- The Rangers over the Bay Rays: The Rangers just seem to want it more than these current Bay Rays.
- The Astros over the Diamondbacks: Like Oswalt over Petit.
- The Royals over the Twins: Hochever has been better than Blackburn. The Twins are missing Morneau.
- The White Sox over the Orioles: Told you that the Fan was never picking Guthrie again.
- The Rockies over the Giants: Cook should shut down that anemic line up
- The Cardinals over the Padres: Like this kid, Richard, but the Cardinals are so much better as a team.
- The Tigers over the Athletics: Jackson should win this one.
- The Cubs over the Dodgers: There the Fan goes again, picking the Cubs. But they never lose when Wells is pitching.
Yesterday: 6-6
Week: 41-25
Month: 139-119
So Long, Livan
Livan Hernandez lost his job with the Mets on Thursday as the team activated former ace closer, Billy Wagner. And the weird thing about the news is that this writer is sad. Livan had become an event, a fine point of interest. No longer can we ponder if the pitcher will confound us with an unexpected gem of an outing or if he will be Livan, the batting practice pitcher. It was entertaining. But the truth of it is, the Mets probably got rid of the wrong pitcher.
The Mets dumped Livan after three bad starts in a row, but they kept Tim Redding, who will make a spot start to take Livan's place. Don't know about you, but that doesn't seem like a fair trade, even if you are going to see Livan take his lumps now and then. Let's compare the two pitchers:
Granted, neither one of them is fun for a manager, but it seems clear to this observer that if you have to get rid of somebody, that somebody would be the least effective guy. Redding has been considerably worse that Eisler Livan Carrera Hernandez.
The thing about Livan--and this is what made him so entertaining--is that he could be pretty amazing or he could be amazingly awful. In his seven wins, he had an ERA of 2.02 and a WHIP of 1.286. In his eight losses, his ERA was 10.21 with a WHIP of 2.319. Whoa! That's a lot of base runners. The point is that occasionally, he could be pretty good and was so seven times. Tim Redding can't give you that. He's never going to give you a good outing. Never. Ever.
But just you watch. Livan won't be dead yet. He will resurface somewhere. Some contender that is thin in starting pitching might pick him up and hope that he can throw a couple of good games in there. The Fan can see him in Los Angeles where he would be better than Jeff Weaver. The Fan can see him in Minnesota where he would be at least as good as Carl Pavano. No. Livan is not dead yet and thank goodness, we haven't seen the last of him.
The other side of this story is Billy Wagner. Wagner was supposed to miss the entire season with his surgery last August. But apparently he heals quickly and here he is. Yeah, he's 38 years old, but at 37 last year and with a dead arm, he still struck out 10 batters for every 9 innings. He pitched Thursday night. One inning, no hits, two strikeouts. But the Mets can't get rid of him fast enough. Jerry Manuel even said that he was going to "showcase" him for an inning and he did. Those were pretty good results. Hey, the Cubbies could use a closer. So could the Marlins. The Mets would have to eat the money, but hey, the guy looks like he can still pitch. 385 career saves anyone?
So, yeah, it was mixed emotions. It was good to see Billy Wagner. But the Fan is going to miss Livan. Long Live Livan! Hope somebody else picks him up so the entertainment can continue.
The Mets dumped Livan after three bad starts in a row, but they kept Tim Redding, who will make a spot start to take Livan's place. Don't know about you, but that doesn't seem like a fair trade, even if you are going to see Livan take his lumps now and then. Let's compare the two pitchers:
- Livan Hernandez: 7-8. 5.47 ERA in 23 starts. His 135 innings gave him an average of 5.87 innings per start. He had a WHIP of 1.593 and gave up 1.1 homers per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio was 1.47 and he had an ERA+ of 78.
- Tim Redding: 1-4. 6.53 ERA in 9 starts and 13 relief appearances. His 9 starts averaged 5.24 innings per start. He has a WHIP of 1.647 and has given up 1.4 homers per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ration is 1.45 and has an ERA+ of 65.
Granted, neither one of them is fun for a manager, but it seems clear to this observer that if you have to get rid of somebody, that somebody would be the least effective guy. Redding has been considerably worse that Eisler Livan Carrera Hernandez.
The thing about Livan--and this is what made him so entertaining--is that he could be pretty amazing or he could be amazingly awful. In his seven wins, he had an ERA of 2.02 and a WHIP of 1.286. In his eight losses, his ERA was 10.21 with a WHIP of 2.319. Whoa! That's a lot of base runners. The point is that occasionally, he could be pretty good and was so seven times. Tim Redding can't give you that. He's never going to give you a good outing. Never. Ever.
But just you watch. Livan won't be dead yet. He will resurface somewhere. Some contender that is thin in starting pitching might pick him up and hope that he can throw a couple of good games in there. The Fan can see him in Los Angeles where he would be better than Jeff Weaver. The Fan can see him in Minnesota where he would be at least as good as Carl Pavano. No. Livan is not dead yet and thank goodness, we haven't seen the last of him.
The other side of this story is Billy Wagner. Wagner was supposed to miss the entire season with his surgery last August. But apparently he heals quickly and here he is. Yeah, he's 38 years old, but at 37 last year and with a dead arm, he still struck out 10 batters for every 9 innings. He pitched Thursday night. One inning, no hits, two strikeouts. But the Mets can't get rid of him fast enough. Jerry Manuel even said that he was going to "showcase" him for an inning and he did. Those were pretty good results. Hey, the Cubbies could use a closer. So could the Marlins. The Mets would have to eat the money, but hey, the guy looks like he can still pitch. 385 career saves anyone?
So, yeah, it was mixed emotions. It was good to see Billy Wagner. But the Fan is going to miss Livan. Long Live Livan! Hope somebody else picks him up so the entertainment can continue.
Wonder What Halladay Is Thinking
Do you think Roy Halladay is a "what if" kind of guy? Do you think he ponders what it would be like if he was pitching for the Phillies right now instead of Cliff Lee? Lee is doing his Sabathia impression as he is now 4-0 with his new team with an ERA lower than one. That could have been Halladay.
And the thing is, the Phillies will have an exciting October. Lee will be having the time of his life as he rides the roller coaster of fan hysteria and overall excitement. Halladay, meanwhile, will be toiling in vain to a half-empty Skydome. Halladay has a real shot at a Cy Young, but that is small consolation for a pitcher who could be ruling the universe like Lee is now.
Halladay is a much better pitcher than Lee. And it seems apparent that it is easier to pitch in the National League than in the American League, especially since half of Halladay's games come against the AL East--the cell phone equivalent of a dead zone for pitchers. That could be Halladay with the Phillies getting high fives from Howard and the gang. It could have been Halladay's shot at the sun and the acclaim he so richly deserves.
Do you think Halladay is thinking that could have been him? Is he that kind of guy? The Fan was rooting for Halladay to stay with the Blue Jays for their fans' sake. But now the Fan is just feeling bad for the guy.
And the thing is, the Phillies will have an exciting October. Lee will be having the time of his life as he rides the roller coaster of fan hysteria and overall excitement. Halladay, meanwhile, will be toiling in vain to a half-empty Skydome. Halladay has a real shot at a Cy Young, but that is small consolation for a pitcher who could be ruling the universe like Lee is now.
Halladay is a much better pitcher than Lee. And it seems apparent that it is easier to pitch in the National League than in the American League, especially since half of Halladay's games come against the AL East--the cell phone equivalent of a dead zone for pitchers. That could be Halladay with the Phillies getting high fives from Howard and the gang. It could have been Halladay's shot at the sun and the acclaim he so richly deserves.
Do you think Halladay is thinking that could have been him? Is he that kind of guy? The Fan was rooting for Halladay to stay with the Blue Jays for their fans' sake. But now the Fan is just feeling bad for the guy.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
A Closer Should Never Win a Cy Young Award
There has again been the usual rumblings around the blogsphere about Mariano Rivera as a Cy Young candidate. Posts such as this one tout his ERA and his K/BB ratios, etc. Anyone who knows the Fan knows that Mo is one of his favorite players. The class of the guy and his unusual success over the years with one pitch has earned the respect and a place some day at Cooperstown. But he should never win the Cy Young award, no matter how good he does.
Many experts out there denigrate the value of a closer. Many say that any good starter could be a good closer. Many also say that the Save is a bogus statistic and that guys like Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are artificial heroes because of the bogus stat. The Fan doesn't buy it and those that propose that sort of thinking don't understand that the nature of the game has changed. Pitchers no longer finish 25 to 35 games a season like they did in the past. Starters are expected to pitch to the sixth or seventh and the bullpen takes over. That is today's game. And not accepting that fact takes away from what the closer does. Just ask the Indians how important a closer is. But a closer should not win a Cy Young award.
The Yankees have a .606 OPS against them in save situations. The Blue Jays sit at .806. You don't think that has a big factor in their respective places in the standings? The expectation of guys like Rivera and Eckersley and Gossage at his peak is that the game becomes a seven inning game. You had better be winning or at least tied by then because if you were behind, it was over. There is no overstating the fact that a closer like Rivera is a devastating weapon for the Yankees just like Eckersley was at his closing peak. But they still should win Cy Young awards.
The simple fact of the matter is that they usually pitch an inning. Again, the Fan fully believes in the importance of a good closer and that the Save is a valid statistic. But it's still only one inning out of nine. The starter has to go seven of the nine. There is no comparison of the value there. Either it's a seven of nine effect on a game or a one of nine. The math doesn't ever make sense for a closer and Cy Young. A closer will pitch 70 innings a year. A starter will pitch over 200. A closer will throw 1400 pitches a season. A starter will throw over 4000. No matter how you look at the math, the closer never comes close in value.
The AL Cy Young contenders are Halladay (the leader right now), Greinke and probably Jackson. But don't put Rivera in there. He's great, perhaps the greatest closer ever. But he shouldn't ever be in the thinking process for Cy Young.
Many experts out there denigrate the value of a closer. Many say that any good starter could be a good closer. Many also say that the Save is a bogus statistic and that guys like Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are artificial heroes because of the bogus stat. The Fan doesn't buy it and those that propose that sort of thinking don't understand that the nature of the game has changed. Pitchers no longer finish 25 to 35 games a season like they did in the past. Starters are expected to pitch to the sixth or seventh and the bullpen takes over. That is today's game. And not accepting that fact takes away from what the closer does. Just ask the Indians how important a closer is. But a closer should not win a Cy Young award.
The Yankees have a .606 OPS against them in save situations. The Blue Jays sit at .806. You don't think that has a big factor in their respective places in the standings? The expectation of guys like Rivera and Eckersley and Gossage at his peak is that the game becomes a seven inning game. You had better be winning or at least tied by then because if you were behind, it was over. There is no overstating the fact that a closer like Rivera is a devastating weapon for the Yankees just like Eckersley was at his closing peak. But they still should win Cy Young awards.
The simple fact of the matter is that they usually pitch an inning. Again, the Fan fully believes in the importance of a good closer and that the Save is a valid statistic. But it's still only one inning out of nine. The starter has to go seven of the nine. There is no comparison of the value there. Either it's a seven of nine effect on a game or a one of nine. The math doesn't ever make sense for a closer and Cy Young. A closer will pitch 70 innings a year. A starter will pitch over 200. A closer will throw 1400 pitches a season. A starter will throw over 4000. No matter how you look at the math, the closer never comes close in value.
The AL Cy Young contenders are Halladay (the leader right now), Greinke and probably Jackson. But don't put Rivera in there. He's great, perhaps the greatest closer ever. But he shouldn't ever be in the thinking process for Cy Young.
Game Picks - Thursday: August 20, 2009
Last night was a little bit of a grounding for the game picker. After a really hot stretch of picks, a fall to earth was expected. Not wanted, mind you. But expected. This picker certainly didn't expect the Yankees to win on a night that Gaudin starts, but the guy hung in there and kept his team in the game. The Royals were a stupid and giddy pick. A great game from Maholm is an acceptable reason to be wrong since it was a good pitchers match up. But man, Halladay never loses for this picker. What happened?
But again, life is about perspective. As the Fan types this, there is a hummingbird at the feeder, the sun is shining and tonight is golf league night. Can't get a better day than that.
There are twelve games today, which is pretty good for a Thursday. So let's see what kind of trouble we can get into:
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 35-19
Month: 133-113
But again, life is about perspective. As the Fan types this, there is a hummingbird at the feeder, the sun is shining and tonight is golf league night. Can't get a better day than that.
There are twelve games today, which is pretty good for a Thursday. So let's see what kind of trouble we can get into:
- The Giants over the Reds: Matt Cain is pitching against Harang, who seems to be starting to figure it out again. Tough call.
- The Tigers over the Mariners: Washburn goes against his former team, who are lefty heavy which should help him.
- The Phillies over the Diamondbacks: Blanton over Davis. Blanton is much more talented as are the Phillies.
- The Nationals over the Rockies: Really like this Mock kid. Probably too much so, but what the heck.
- The Angels over the Indians: This pick is fraught with dangers. The Indians usually love guys like Lackey but Masterson has not been very good either.
- The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Guess it was a fantasy that the Red Sox might not make the wild card.
- The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Simply because the Bay Rays still think they have a shot. They probably don't.
- The Mets over the Braves: Johan Santana should beat Kawakami. But that word, "should," has bit deeply so often, the Fan has scars.
- The Astros over the Marlins: Ack! Two of the Fan's favorite pitchers, Wandy versus Josh Johnson. What to do??
- The Rangers over the Twins: The Twins were just playing with the Fan to let him get two right. We are back now on our regular habit of getting the Twins pick wrong.
- The Cardinals over the Padres: One of the few picks that should be a lock.
- The Cubs over the Dodgers: Oh yeah, this is a fun pick. NOT. Gorzelanny versus Jeff Weaver? Ugh.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 35-19
Month: 133-113
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
So Stephen Strasburg Signed
The story has to be good when it has a perfectly alliterative headline, right? After days of speculation and negative reports to the contrary, the Nationals and Scott Boras got a deal done right before the deadline and the Nationals landed their prized pitcher. The signing prevents Strasburg from joining the likes of J. D. Drew, who sat out a while after his selection and it prevents the Nationals' fans from losing hope.
Of course, any prospect is a crap shoot. No matter how highly touted they come, they can fall just as easily as they can succeed. Just ask the Royals who demoted Alex Gordan to the minors this week. As such, it is impossible to understand why any top round draft pick wouldn't sign. Three first rounders didn't before the deadline. Aaron Crowe didn't get a deal done with the Royals, but he is no longer college eligible, so he has until next year's draft to get a deal. But still, he is losing time that he can never get back, which makes no sense at all.
Matt Purke, a high school senior, turned down the Rangers' final offer and will go off to college to while away two years until he can enter the draft again. Reportedly, he turned down a four million dollar signing bonus. What!? Is he nuts? There is no guarantee that he will do well in college and get close to this highly drafted again. There is no guarantee that he will be an effective major leaguer. And so he turns down a guaranteed $4 million that he doesn't even have to earn? Crazy.
The same can be said for LeVon Washington who must now toil away in junior college for two years until he can enter the draft again. The Bay Rays cut off negotiations with Boras concerning Washington earlier in the day of the deadline. Washington should have shot Boras after a deal didn't get done. But what's a couple of million dollars among friends?
If Strasburg had gone the same route, it would have been a colossal blunder and the pitcher had nothing to gain by not signing on the dotted line. As it is, the pitcher has lost two months as negotiations meandered around and if he had signed early, he might have even been seen in the majors this year. There is no way he will now.
But at least the deal is done and the Nationals and its fans have something to dream about. Strasburg is no guaranteed success, but if he turns out half as good as projected, the Nationals will have a good horse to build a team around.
Of course, any prospect is a crap shoot. No matter how highly touted they come, they can fall just as easily as they can succeed. Just ask the Royals who demoted Alex Gordan to the minors this week. As such, it is impossible to understand why any top round draft pick wouldn't sign. Three first rounders didn't before the deadline. Aaron Crowe didn't get a deal done with the Royals, but he is no longer college eligible, so he has until next year's draft to get a deal. But still, he is losing time that he can never get back, which makes no sense at all.
Matt Purke, a high school senior, turned down the Rangers' final offer and will go off to college to while away two years until he can enter the draft again. Reportedly, he turned down a four million dollar signing bonus. What!? Is he nuts? There is no guarantee that he will do well in college and get close to this highly drafted again. There is no guarantee that he will be an effective major leaguer. And so he turns down a guaranteed $4 million that he doesn't even have to earn? Crazy.
The same can be said for LeVon Washington who must now toil away in junior college for two years until he can enter the draft again. The Bay Rays cut off negotiations with Boras concerning Washington earlier in the day of the deadline. Washington should have shot Boras after a deal didn't get done. But what's a couple of million dollars among friends?
If Strasburg had gone the same route, it would have been a colossal blunder and the pitcher had nothing to gain by not signing on the dotted line. As it is, the pitcher has lost two months as negotiations meandered around and if he had signed early, he might have even been seen in the majors this year. There is no way he will now.
But at least the deal is done and the Nationals and its fans have something to dream about. Strasburg is no guaranteed success, but if he turns out half as good as projected, the Nationals will have a good horse to build a team around.
Game Picks - Wednesday: August 19, 2009
Another good night for this picker as the correct picks doubled the incorrect ones. Really thought Feldman was going to win, especially early on in that contest, but he hung too many breaking balls. The rain kept Pedro from pitching much in his game, which might have turned out differently if he had stayed in there. But let's here it for Moyer who pitched great in relief and got the win. Plus, it continues to be difficult to believe the Cubs are this bad or that the Angels are this good.
But overall, any night you predict Kansas City and the Pirates to win and they do, it's a good night. Speaking of Pittsburgh, how about that Ohlendorf? Wow, huh?
Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 28-11
Month: 126-105
But overall, any night you predict Kansas City and the Pirates to win and they do, it's a good night. Speaking of Pittsburgh, how about that Ohlendorf? Wow, huh?
- The Royals over the White Sox: Can the Royals win two in a row? Can Greinke pitch a good game and get a win?
- The Brewers over the Pirates: Like Maholm. But like Gallardo and the Brewers' offense better.
- The Phillies over the Diamondbacks: Lee versus Haran. Normally would pick Haran, but Lee has been lights out so far in the National League.
- The Rockies over the Nationals: Marquis!
- The Angels over the Indians: Jared Weaver pitched more like his brother last time out. Looking for him to bounce back in this game.
- The Tigers over the Mariners: The Mariners won't catch up to Verlander's fastball.
- The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Halladay!
- The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Niemann over Tillman. Good team over bad team.
- The Reds over the Giants: The two worst offenses in baseball continue to "slug" it out. Add to that drama, two "crafty" pitchers in Zito and Arroyo.
- The Braves over the Mets: The Braves should be better than they are playing. But they just can't seem to get over the hump.
- The Marlins over the Astros: No faith in Sean West, but have no idea who Baczardo is.
- The Rangers over the Twins: This game is impossible to be sure about. Home Run Baker versus Millwood.
- The Cubs over the Padres: Because the Fan still can't accept that the Cubs are this bad.
- The Athletics over the Yankees: The upset pick of the day since Gaudin is starting for the Yanks.
- The Cardinals over the Dodgers: This NLCS preview features Wainwright versus Kershaw.
Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 28-11
Month: 126-105
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Game Picks - Tuesday: August 18, 2009
Yikes! Got to working in the basement and totally forgot about the game picks! Oops. Well, it's a good thing the brain kicked in because this picker has been on a hot streak.
So without any further blather, let's get to the picks before it's too late:
Yesterday: 6-3
Week: 18-6
Month: 116-100
So without any further blather, let's get to the picks before it's too late:
- The Pirates over the Brewers: Crazy man, Ohlendorf is pitching.
- The Diamondbacks over the Phillies: Just not confident in Pedro...
- The Rockies over the Nationals: Jiminez and his big fastball should win this one.
- The Indians over the Angels: Carmona is probably a stupid pick, but this Fan has no idea who this Bell is that the Angels are pitching.
- The Tigers over the Mariners: King Felix versus Porcello. Going with the upset here.
- The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Beckett is Cy Young this year.
- The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Price feels like a better pick than Berken.
- The Giants over the Reds: The two worst offenses in the league. But the Giants have Lincecum.
- The Braves over the Mets: Lowe should take care of the Mets while Oliver Perez is still walking a man an inning.
- The Marlins over the Astros: Can't figure Nolasco out. Terrible, great, terrible. Hoping for great.
- The Rangers over the Twins: Feldman versus Pavano. Yeah. This one looks good.
- The Royals over the White Sox: Gil (ga) Meche is much better than Freddie Garcia.
- The Cubs over the Padres: Dempster over Carrillo. The Cubs are pretty much done though.
- The Yankees over the A's: Sabathia!
- The Dodgers over the Cardinals: Billingsley over Boggs.
Yesterday: 6-3
Week: 18-6
Month: 116-100
Who Is the Worst Team in the Majors Right Now?
It's easy to ponder the best teams in baseball. The arguments would center around the Dodgers, the Yankees, the Cardinals and the Phillies (and maybe the Angels). But it's a whole other ball of wax to figure out the worst team in the majors.
First, let's pick our contenders: Washington, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland, Cleveland and Baltimore. Let's look at a few key ratings and see where we end up.
Pitching
The Indians have the worst staff ERA followed by the Orioles and the Nationals. But if you factor in ball parks, fielding and the like, you have a different statistic called ERA+ which is probably a better indicator of a pitching staff. If you go by ERA+, the Padres are the clear leader...err...loser. Their staff ERA+ of 80 is by far the worst in the majors. The Nationals are second worst at 86, but that six points are a lot higher. The Brewers are at 88 and three teams sit at 89 including the Pirates and Indians.
The Nationals and the Indians have the worst bullpens when it comes to save percentage and inherited runners scoring. The Pirates have the best starting pitching of the bunch and the most "tough losses" or games in which the starting pitcher pitched well but did not get the win or a decision.
ERA+ for our contenders: Pirates (89), Nationals (86), Padres (80), Indians (89), Kansas City (93), Oakland (92), Orioles (90).
Batting
The Reds (who maybe should have been in this argument) have the worst OPS+ in the majors with a whopping score of 79. The Giants are second worst at 81. The Royals are at 88 and the Pirates at 90.
OPS+ of our contenders: Pirates (90), Royals (88), Padres (94), Athletics (92), Orioles (93), Indians (99), Nationals (99)
Fielding
Ranking fielding is almost counting against (or for) a team twice since ERA+ does account some for fielding. But for our purposes, we will count it separately. And since ERA+ and OPS+ are based on 100 (with 100 being average), we'll convert (for easy math) the fielding percentage to a hundred type score to go along with the others.
Pirates (98.8), Royals (98.0), Padres (98.5), Athletics (98.4), Orioles (98.4), Indians (98.6), Nationals (97.7).
Two comments there: First, the Pirates traded away most of the players that were responsible for this fielding percentage. Second, the Nationals are clearly the worst fielding percentage team of the contenders with the Royals second.
A different fielding statistic is Defensive Efficiency which measures balls in play converted to outs. All of our contenders are in the bottom third of teams when it comes to Defensive Efficiency. The Royals are dead last out of all the teams in the majors in this category and the Orioles are third from the bottom. Somewhat surprising, the next to last team in Defensive Efficiency? The Red Sox.
Team Record the Last Three Months
Some teams of our contenders started really poorly and others started really well. What the Fan wants to consider here is how they have played once the season was well under way to even the playing field a bit:
Orioles: 25-41 (.378)
Indians: 29-36 (.446)
Royals: 23-44 (.343)
Athletics: 33-36 (.478)
Pirates: 24-42 (.363)
Padres: 24-45 (.348)
Nationals: 29-39 (.426)
Blow Out Games
Measuring blow out games gives us some indication of how often the team has imploded or exploded.
Orioles: 13-19 (.406)
Indians: 16-15 (.516)
Royals: 14-30 (.318)
Athletics: 17-18 (.476)
Pirates: 14-19 (.424)
Padres: 6-27 (.182)
Nationals: 11-20 (.355)
One Run Games
How do our contenders fare in the tight games?
Orioles: 12-15 (.444)
Indians: 16-14 (.533)
Royals: 11-17 (.393)
Athletics: 12-18 (.400)
Pirates: 8-18 (.308)
Padres: 16-16 (.500)
Nationals: 13-17 (.433)
Conclusion
Okay, what have we come up with? The Indians are the best hitters of the bunch and decent fielders. They are in the middle of this pack in ERA+. They play well in tight games and have more blowouts in their favor than against. We can rule them out. The Nationals are right up there with the Indians on offense but don't field well or pitch well. Their bullpen is the worst in the majors. But they have played reasonably well in close games and over the last three months have the second best record of our contenders. We can rule them out. The Orioles are in the middle of the pack in all of our categories except for fielding where they are terrible. But we can rule them out because of the middle of the pack thing.
The Pirates are hard to consider since they aren't the same team that started the season. More than half of the opening day starting lineup have been traded away. As such, they have the third worst record the last three months and are terrible in close games. But they are not at the bottom of the pack in any other category, so we have to give them a pass. The A's are not bad (for this bunch) at the plate or on the mound. Their fielding isn't great (with the likes of Cust and Giambi lumbering around for most of the year). Their record in the last three months in comparison with the rest and their ability to win almost as many blowouts as they lose gives them an out card.
That leaves us with the Padres and the Royals. The Padres are clearly the worst pitching team in the league. Their OPS+ isn't bad with these contenders and they fare well in close games. But they have been blown out 21 more times than they blew out other teams. And they have fared really poorly the last three months.
The Royals are the worst hitting team of the bunch and the worst fielders. Their starters are mostly better than some of these other teams (thanks to Greinke). But their bullpen has been awful. They have the worst record the last three months. They are terrible in close games and get blown out way more often than they blow out the other teams.
Folks, your winner and the honor of the worst team in the major leagues goes to the Kansas City Royals. You are not really surprised are you?
First, let's pick our contenders: Washington, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland, Cleveland and Baltimore. Let's look at a few key ratings and see where we end up.
Pitching
The Indians have the worst staff ERA followed by the Orioles and the Nationals. But if you factor in ball parks, fielding and the like, you have a different statistic called ERA+ which is probably a better indicator of a pitching staff. If you go by ERA+, the Padres are the clear leader...err...loser. Their staff ERA+ of 80 is by far the worst in the majors. The Nationals are second worst at 86, but that six points are a lot higher. The Brewers are at 88 and three teams sit at 89 including the Pirates and Indians.
The Nationals and the Indians have the worst bullpens when it comes to save percentage and inherited runners scoring. The Pirates have the best starting pitching of the bunch and the most "tough losses" or games in which the starting pitcher pitched well but did not get the win or a decision.
ERA+ for our contenders: Pirates (89), Nationals (86), Padres (80), Indians (89), Kansas City (93), Oakland (92), Orioles (90).
Batting
The Reds (who maybe should have been in this argument) have the worst OPS+ in the majors with a whopping score of 79. The Giants are second worst at 81. The Royals are at 88 and the Pirates at 90.
OPS+ of our contenders: Pirates (90), Royals (88), Padres (94), Athletics (92), Orioles (93), Indians (99), Nationals (99)
Fielding
Ranking fielding is almost counting against (or for) a team twice since ERA+ does account some for fielding. But for our purposes, we will count it separately. And since ERA+ and OPS+ are based on 100 (with 100 being average), we'll convert (for easy math) the fielding percentage to a hundred type score to go along with the others.
Pirates (98.8), Royals (98.0), Padres (98.5), Athletics (98.4), Orioles (98.4), Indians (98.6), Nationals (97.7).
Two comments there: First, the Pirates traded away most of the players that were responsible for this fielding percentage. Second, the Nationals are clearly the worst fielding percentage team of the contenders with the Royals second.
A different fielding statistic is Defensive Efficiency which measures balls in play converted to outs. All of our contenders are in the bottom third of teams when it comes to Defensive Efficiency. The Royals are dead last out of all the teams in the majors in this category and the Orioles are third from the bottom. Somewhat surprising, the next to last team in Defensive Efficiency? The Red Sox.
Team Record the Last Three Months
Some teams of our contenders started really poorly and others started really well. What the Fan wants to consider here is how they have played once the season was well under way to even the playing field a bit:
Orioles: 25-41 (.378)
Indians: 29-36 (.446)
Royals: 23-44 (.343)
Athletics: 33-36 (.478)
Pirates: 24-42 (.363)
Padres: 24-45 (.348)
Nationals: 29-39 (.426)
Blow Out Games
Measuring blow out games gives us some indication of how often the team has imploded or exploded.
Orioles: 13-19 (.406)
Indians: 16-15 (.516)
Royals: 14-30 (.318)
Athletics: 17-18 (.476)
Pirates: 14-19 (.424)
Padres: 6-27 (.182)
Nationals: 11-20 (.355)
One Run Games
How do our contenders fare in the tight games?
Orioles: 12-15 (.444)
Indians: 16-14 (.533)
Royals: 11-17 (.393)
Athletics: 12-18 (.400)
Pirates: 8-18 (.308)
Padres: 16-16 (.500)
Nationals: 13-17 (.433)
Conclusion
Okay, what have we come up with? The Indians are the best hitters of the bunch and decent fielders. They are in the middle of this pack in ERA+. They play well in tight games and have more blowouts in their favor than against. We can rule them out. The Nationals are right up there with the Indians on offense but don't field well or pitch well. Their bullpen is the worst in the majors. But they have played reasonably well in close games and over the last three months have the second best record of our contenders. We can rule them out. The Orioles are in the middle of the pack in all of our categories except for fielding where they are terrible. But we can rule them out because of the middle of the pack thing.
The Pirates are hard to consider since they aren't the same team that started the season. More than half of the opening day starting lineup have been traded away. As such, they have the third worst record the last three months and are terrible in close games. But they are not at the bottom of the pack in any other category, so we have to give them a pass. The A's are not bad (for this bunch) at the plate or on the mound. Their fielding isn't great (with the likes of Cust and Giambi lumbering around for most of the year). Their record in the last three months in comparison with the rest and their ability to win almost as many blowouts as they lose gives them an out card.
That leaves us with the Padres and the Royals. The Padres are clearly the worst pitching team in the league. Their OPS+ isn't bad with these contenders and they fare well in close games. But they have been blown out 21 more times than they blew out other teams. And they have fared really poorly the last three months.
The Royals are the worst hitting team of the bunch and the worst fielders. Their starters are mostly better than some of these other teams (thanks to Greinke). But their bullpen has been awful. They have the worst record the last three months. They are terrible in close games and get blown out way more often than they blow out the other teams.
Folks, your winner and the honor of the worst team in the major leagues goes to the Kansas City Royals. You are not really surprised are you?
Monday, August 17, 2009
Game Picks - Monday: August 17, 2009
Well, you can't start a week much better than that. Fifteen games picked (sixteen, but one was rained out) and twelve were correct. The only incorrect picks? The Phillies beating the Braves. The Royals beating the Tigers. Whuh? And the A's beating the White Sox. Cahill threw a good game. It happens.
Short schedule tonight, typical Monday. With only nine games to pick, let's see if the Fan can keep a good thing going:
Yesterday: 12-3
Week: 12-3
Month: 116-100
Short schedule tonight, typical Monday. With only nine games to pick, let's see if the Fan can keep a good thing going:
- The Braves over the Diamondbacks: Two good young pitchers: Hanson versus Scherzer. Going with Hanson and the Braves.
- The Pirates over the Brewers: Another Villanueva start for the Brewers.
- The Angels over the Orioles: The other Santana versus Hernandez. Going with the Angels' offense on this one.
- The Mets over the Giants: This has every earmark for the Mets to lose. Wright, their only healthy and good player is now out too. Livan is starting. But, somehow, the Mets will win.
- The Rangers over the Twins: Two straight correct Twins picks! Can we make it three? Liriano has been better. But the Rangers are on a roll.
- The White Sox over the Royals: Buehrle should beat Bannister, who will make a great coach some day.
- The Cubs over the Padres: Ted Lilly is back. Hope that's a good thing.
- The Yankees over the Athletics: Burnet versus...Brett Tomko??
- The Cardinals over the Dodgers: Chris Carpenter versus a rookie. Got to like those odds.
Yesterday: 12-3
Week: 12-3
Month: 116-100
Joe Torre - Bullpen Killer?
As any reader knows, Joe Torre has long been a Fan favorite. The guy just seems to have more class in his little finger than all managers have in their entire bodies. But he certainly has gained a reputation in recent years for being a bullpen killer. Critics point to the Scott Proctors of the world that litter Torre's past. Guys like Tronsoco on the current Torre team seem to bring new fuel to the Torre reputation. But is it accurate?
Joe Torre has cemented a Hall of Fame career by finding a horse he can ride as the set up guy and his closer. The championships in New York were built that way with Rivera, first as the set up guy and then as the closer. The formula worked. But Torre also seems to have a couple of key other guys that he has faith in and runs them out there as often as possible. If he loses faith in a pitcher, that guy hardly pitches. With Tronsoco this year pitching before his closer in Jonathan Broxton, Torre tries to continue the pattern.
Both guys were brilliant early on and Broxton made the All Star team as a first year closer. At the time, he only had one blown save and an ERA under one. Broxton has now blown five saves and has an ERA over three. Tronsoco has also regressed some since that time. But Broxton has 50 appearances so far and that is right in line with the average for closers (Rivera has 51). The key here though is that this is Broxton's first year at doing this. Perhaps Sherrill should give Broxton a week off or something. Tronsoco has 58 appearances, which is in the top 25 in the league, but not near the top. But again, this is his first year in such a high stress environment.
The top 25 list of appearances would seem to indicate that Torre does not earn his reputation. Only two of his pitchers appear on the list. The Cubs have three on that list. But that's only part of the story. The Dodgers are third in the league in games for relievers behind the Nationals and the Marlins. More importantly, they hold a big lead in the league in relief pitchers getting more than three outs in an outing. The Dodgers have 116 of those. The next closest team has 86. Naturally, they also lead the league in relief pitchers pitching multiple innings.
There are two problems for the Dodgers that lead to this situation. First, their starters--two of which are young and throw a lot of pitches--average the second lowest innings per game in the National League. And yet, they are in the middle of the pack of pitches thrown by starters per game. That means that the relievers have more work to do per game. The Dodgers' relievers have had to record 3.4 innings of relief every game. That's a lot of innings. The second problem is that, yes, Joe Torre will go with a hot hand until the guy's arm falls off.
Just ask Scott Proctor.
Joe Torre has cemented a Hall of Fame career by finding a horse he can ride as the set up guy and his closer. The championships in New York were built that way with Rivera, first as the set up guy and then as the closer. The formula worked. But Torre also seems to have a couple of key other guys that he has faith in and runs them out there as often as possible. If he loses faith in a pitcher, that guy hardly pitches. With Tronsoco this year pitching before his closer in Jonathan Broxton, Torre tries to continue the pattern.
Both guys were brilliant early on and Broxton made the All Star team as a first year closer. At the time, he only had one blown save and an ERA under one. Broxton has now blown five saves and has an ERA over three. Tronsoco has also regressed some since that time. But Broxton has 50 appearances so far and that is right in line with the average for closers (Rivera has 51). The key here though is that this is Broxton's first year at doing this. Perhaps Sherrill should give Broxton a week off or something. Tronsoco has 58 appearances, which is in the top 25 in the league, but not near the top. But again, this is his first year in such a high stress environment.
The top 25 list of appearances would seem to indicate that Torre does not earn his reputation. Only two of his pitchers appear on the list. The Cubs have three on that list. But that's only part of the story. The Dodgers are third in the league in games for relievers behind the Nationals and the Marlins. More importantly, they hold a big lead in the league in relief pitchers getting more than three outs in an outing. The Dodgers have 116 of those. The next closest team has 86. Naturally, they also lead the league in relief pitchers pitching multiple innings.
There are two problems for the Dodgers that lead to this situation. First, their starters--two of which are young and throw a lot of pitches--average the second lowest innings per game in the National League. And yet, they are in the middle of the pack of pitches thrown by starters per game. That means that the relievers have more work to do per game. The Dodgers' relievers have had to record 3.4 innings of relief every game. That's a lot of innings. The second problem is that, yes, Joe Torre will go with a hot hand until the guy's arm falls off.
Just ask Scott Proctor.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Game Picks - Sunday: August 16, 2009
Yesterday was weird. First, this picker completely missed the Nationals' game. And that was a shame, because it would have been correct. And that one correct pick would have made a lot of difference. The other part of the equation was a rain out in Florida. That would have been another correct pick and the day would have looked a lot better.
But it's okay. It wasn't a great day, but it wasn't a bad one either. The Fan fell to third for the week at BallHype. Told you. The old nemesis, OrioFan8, is 28-25 for the week and has 23.1 points. The Fan is 41-26 and has 14 points. Something wrong with that picture, no? But the Fan wouldn't be a responsible picker if all he did was pick underdogs to get the points. It's a question of honor and value to the Fan's readers.
With that in mind, here are today's picks:
Yesterday: 7-6
Week: 53-39
Month: 104-97
But it's okay. It wasn't a great day, but it wasn't a bad one either. The Fan fell to third for the week at BallHype. Told you. The old nemesis, OrioFan8, is 28-25 for the week and has 23.1 points. The Fan is 41-26 and has 14 points. Something wrong with that picture, no? But the Fan wouldn't be a responsible picker if all he did was pick underdogs to get the points. It's a question of honor and value to the Fan's readers.
With that in mind, here are today's picks:
- The Tigers over the Royals: Not a great pitching match up here, but the Tigers need to beat the weak Royals to press their case for the division.
- The Mets over the Giants: Picking Pelfrey at home over the Giants and Sanchez.
- The Nationals over the Reds: Two good looking young pitchers in Lannon versus Lehr. If the pitching match up is even, go with the better hitting team.
- The Marlins over the Rockies: Volstad versus Cook. Again, it was thought that Cook was going to miss this start. So there is skeptics there.
- The Angels over the Orioles: The Angels should win big despite a rookie pitching. Guthrie is terrible again.
- The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Garza should pick up the win here.
- The Astros over the Brewers: The Brewers are trying to put a run together, but it's a bit late for that. The Cardinals are not going to be caught.
- The Rangers over the Red Sox: Not feeling for the Red Sox with Tazawa pitching.
- The Indians over the Twins: Did you notice the Fan went against his instincts yesterday and finally got a Twins' game right? Can we make it two in a row?
- The Cardinals over the Padres: Richard looks good but Holliday has come to life and is earning a nice fat payday.
- The Pirates over the Cubs: Ohlendorf reminds the Fan of those days long ago in Strat-O-Matic baseball when the Fan would ride one obscure pitcher all the way to a pennant.
- The White Sox over the Athletics: Danks has been shaky lately, but Cahill has been shakier.
- The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: The Dodgers had their hearts broken in the ninth yesterday. They bounce back today.
- The Mariners over the Yankees: Chamberlain is listed as the Yankees' starting pitcher, but he's been given the week off (or so the Fan read). That means a spot start by somebody frightening.
- The Rockies over the Marlins: The second game of the day/night double header (hate those).
- The Braves over the Phillies: Great match up of Happ versus Vazquez. Going with Vazquez.
Yesterday: 7-6
Week: 53-39
Month: 104-97
Boston Red Sox Doing a Rope-A-Dope?
With a loss to the Rangers, the Red Sox are now in second place in the American League East AND only a half a game ahead for the wild card. Of course, there are a lot of games left to be played, but did anyone see Boston having any point in this season where they weren't solidly in first for one of those two spots? What is happening here?
The Red Sox were valued so highly because their pitching was considered the best in baseball. But suddenly, the back end of the rotation is in tatters and the bullpen is struggling. The rotation was considered the deepest in baseball. But then Dice-K went down. Wakefield came up with a bad back. Brad Penny has showed that his Dodgers year last year wasn't a fluke. Masterson has come and gone. Smoltz has come and gone. And Jon Lester can't seem to get by the third ups of the line up. Beckett has been the sole standout and nobody saw that coming.
The Red Sox offense came up less than expected last year. And this year seems even worse. They have not gotten any offense at short. Their right-fielder has been a Stange Drew and last checked, was hitting below .250. The Ortiz saga has been well chronicled and though he has looked better in the last month, he's still batting .219. Pedroia isn't hitting with power like last year. Youkilis is having a good year by many standards except by his own. And Varitek?
Argue all you want, but the Red Sox captain has a higher slugging percentage than last year, but he's still hitting only .238. And on Friday night, the Rangers ran all over him and his pitchers to the tune of eight stolen bases. Eight! Without a single caught stealing in the mix. That's the second or third time this season that a team has run wild on old Tek. Either he isn't the defensive catcher (anymore at least) that he is supposed to be, or the pitching coach needs to teach his pitchers how to hold runners on. Oops. Just read a story that said the Bay Rays had eight stolen bases against the Red Sox (and Varitek) on May 3, and these same Rangers had six thefts on July 22.
Friday night, the Red Sox pitchers gave up 17 base runners in eight innings of work. And once they were ahead, the Rangers brought in new whiz kid, Neftali Feliz, and the Red Sox had no defense against him. The Red Sox are suddenly like Superman after exposure to Kryptonite. Lois better get that stuff away from them soon.
The Red Sox were valued so highly because their pitching was considered the best in baseball. But suddenly, the back end of the rotation is in tatters and the bullpen is struggling. The rotation was considered the deepest in baseball. But then Dice-K went down. Wakefield came up with a bad back. Brad Penny has showed that his Dodgers year last year wasn't a fluke. Masterson has come and gone. Smoltz has come and gone. And Jon Lester can't seem to get by the third ups of the line up. Beckett has been the sole standout and nobody saw that coming.
The Red Sox offense came up less than expected last year. And this year seems even worse. They have not gotten any offense at short. Their right-fielder has been a Stange Drew and last checked, was hitting below .250. The Ortiz saga has been well chronicled and though he has looked better in the last month, he's still batting .219. Pedroia isn't hitting with power like last year. Youkilis is having a good year by many standards except by his own. And Varitek?
Argue all you want, but the Red Sox captain has a higher slugging percentage than last year, but he's still hitting only .238. And on Friday night, the Rangers ran all over him and his pitchers to the tune of eight stolen bases. Eight! Without a single caught stealing in the mix. That's the second or third time this season that a team has run wild on old Tek. Either he isn't the defensive catcher (anymore at least) that he is supposed to be, or the pitching coach needs to teach his pitchers how to hold runners on. Oops. Just read a story that said the Bay Rays had eight stolen bases against the Red Sox (and Varitek) on May 3, and these same Rangers had six thefts on July 22.
Friday night, the Red Sox pitchers gave up 17 base runners in eight innings of work. And once they were ahead, the Rangers brought in new whiz kid, Neftali Feliz, and the Red Sox had no defense against him. The Red Sox are suddenly like Superman after exposure to Kryptonite. Lois better get that stuff away from them soon.
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